Landscape and Urban Planning 69 (2004) 1–16 A GIS-based gradient analysis of urban landscape pattern of Shanghai metropolitan area, China Liquan Zhang a,∗ , Jianping Wu b , Yu Zhen a , Jiong Shu b a State Key Laboratory of Estuarine and Coastal Research, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200062, China b Open Laboratory of Geographical Information Science of Chinese Education Ministry, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200062, China Received 5 April 2003; received in revised form 1 August 2003; accepted 11 August 2003 Abstract Quantifying landscape pattern and its change is essential for the monitoring and assessment of ecological consequences of urbanization. As the largest city in the country, metropolitan Shanghai is now the fastest growing area among all major Chinese cities with more than 13 million residents. Using the GIS-based land use data set of the year 1994 and combining gradient analysis with landscape metrics, we attempted to quantify the spatial pattern of urbanization in the Shanghai metropolitan area. The results of transect analysis with class-level metrics showed that the spatial pattern of urbanization could be quantified reliably using landscape metrics and different land use types exhibited distinctive, but not necessarily unique, spatial signatures. The results of transect analysis with landscape-level metrics showed that urbanization in the metropolitan Shanghai region has resulted in dramatic increases in patch density (PD), edge density (ED), and patch and landscape shape complexity, and sharp decreases in the largest and mean patch size (MPS), agriculture land use type, and landscape connectivity. The general pattern of urbanization was that the increasingly urbanized landscape became compositionally more diverse, geometrically more complex, and ecologically more fragmented. In addition, our results supported the hypotheses that, with increasing urbanization, patch density increases while patch size and landscape connectivity decrease. However, our results on patch shape seemed to reject the hypothesis that patch shape becomes more regular as human modification to landscapes intensifies. © 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. Keywords: Urbanization; Gradient analysis; Landscape metrics; Landscape pattern; Metropolitan Shanghai 1. Introduction Urbanization has been an important component of land use and land cover change, and its significance will undoubtedly continue to increase with the majority of the world’s population swarming into cities (Breuste et al., 1998; Pickett et al., 2001; Whitford et al., 2001). The world’s urban population was only ∗ Corresponding author. Tel.: +86-21-6223-2599; fax: +86-21-6254-6441. E-mail address: [email protected] (L. Zhang). 0169-2046/$20.00 © 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. doi:10.1016/j.landurbplan.2003.08.006 about 3% of the global population in the 1800s, but increased to nearly 30% in 1950, and reached 50% in 2000. It has been projected that by 2025, 60% of the world population will live in urban areas, with a dozen megacities that will be crowded with 20 million or more people (United Nations, 2000). In China, the urban population was 37.7% in 2001 and, according to a recent Chinese official report (The Chinese Mayor’s Association, 2002), it has been projected that the urbanization in China will reach 75% by 2050. Urban morphology and its evolution have long been studied in geography, landscape planning and 2 L. Zhang et al. / Landscape and Urban Planning 69 (2004) 1–16 architecture, and sociology. For example, as early as in 1825, the German economist von Thünen (1825) asserted that the urban morphology of an isolated city would be characterized by concentric economic rings (e.g., business, residential, industrial, agriculture), as dictated by simple cost-benefit relations (the principle of marginal spatial utility; cf. Portugali, 2000). von Thünen’s work laid an important foundation for the development of urban development theories, including the concentric zone theory (Burgess, 1925) and the central place theory (Christaller, 1933) which depict cities as more or less concentric or symmetric structures with one or more central business districts. Different from the concentric-ring models, the sector theory (Hoyt, 1939) allows for corridors or wedges of industrialization due to the influence of transportation networks, while the multiple nuclei theory (Harris and Ullmann, 1945) recognizes the multiple centers of specialized activities (e.g., finance, industry, commerce, residence) that result in an asymmetric patch mosaic pattern. These theories of urban forms were developed based primarily on studies of American cities (Chicago, San Francisco, and Boston, respectively) several decades ago, and thus may be less applicable to cities in other countries or to many modern and young cities (Thio, 1989; Wu et al., 2003). A major goal of urban ecology is to understand the relationship between the spatial pattern of urbanization and ecological processes (Sukopp, 1990, 1998; Loucks, 1994; Breuste et al., 1998; Pauleit and Duhme, 2000; Wu and David, 2002). Although urban ecology is not new, a resurgence of interest in the ecology of urban environments is evident in recent years (e.g., Pickett et al., 1997; Breuste et al., 1998; Kent et al., 1999; Collins et al., 2000; McIntyre et al., 2001). The spatial pattern of land use reflects underlying human processes and influences the ecology of urban environments (Redman, 1999; Bastian, 2000). Humans have the ability to greatly modify their environment, which tends to increase landscape fragmentation by generating more and smaller patches. Forman and Godron (1986) (also see Godron and Forman, 1983) postulated that patch characteristics exhibit generally predictable patterns along a landscape modification gradient (i.e., natural—managed—cultivated—suburban— urban). Four specific hypotheses can be stated as follows: (1) patch density (PD) increases exponentially (Fig. 1A); (2) the regularity of patch shape increases (Fig. 1B); (3) both the mean and variance of patch size decrease, but the latter decreases faster (Fig. 1C); and (4) landscape connectivity decreases (Fig. 1D). To test the theories of urban morphology and to relate the spatial pattern of urbanization to ecological processes adequately, quantitative spatial analysis methods are needed. Among others, gradient analysis and landscape pattern analysis seem appropriate for such studies (Luck and Wu, 2002). Gradient analysis, developed in the context of vegetation analysis (Whittaker, 1975), has been used to investigate the effects of urbanization on plant distribution (e.g., Kowarik, 1990; Sukopp, 1998) and ecosystem properties (Pouyat and McDonnell, 1991; Pouyat et al., 1995; Zhu and Carreiro, 1999). McDonnell and Pickett (1990) indicated that the ‘urban–rural’ gradient, similar to the ‘city–country gradient’ used by European urban (plant) ecologists (e.g., Kowarik, 1990), provides an unplanned field experiment in which study plots can be arranged in a transect along the gradient of urbanization. On the other hand, landscape ecology, focusing on the interactions between spatial pattern and ecological processes, has brought about a number of new methods which can be conveniently used for studying urban systems (O’Neill et al., 1988; Turner, 1989; Frohn, 1998; Wu et al., 2000), but their use in urban ecology is yet to be fully explored. In this study, we integrated gradient analysis with landscape pattern metrics to quantitatively characterize the urbanization pattern of the metropolitan area of Shanghai, the biggest city in China. We aimed to address several questions: (1) how do different land use types change with distance away from the urban center? (2) do different land use types have their own unique spatial signatures (e.g. the shape of the change curve along an urban–rural transect)? (3) can urbanization gradients be detected using landscape pattern analysis? (4) to test the hypotheses on landscape structural responses along a human modification gradient postulated by Forman and Godron. Identifying these gradients or patterns is an important first step to relate urban morphology to ecological and socioeconomic processes. L. Zhang et al. / Landscape and Urban Planning 69 (2004) 1–16 3 Fig. 1. Landscape modification gradient hypothesis (redrawn from Godron and Forman, 1983 and Forman and Godron, 1986). 2. Study area The Shanghai metropolitan region is located on the eastern coast of China, the Yangtse River estuary is to the north of it, East Sea to the east of it and Hangzhou Bay to the south of it, between 30◦ 23 –31◦ 37 N and 120◦ 50 –121◦ 45 E (Fig. 2). Shanghai has a northern subtropical monsoon climate, with an average annual temperature 16 ◦ C, summer temperatures average 28 ◦ C while winters are cold with an average temperature of 4 ◦ C. Average annual precipitation is approximately 1200 mm, with 60% of rainfall occurring during May–September. The native vegetation is characterized by subtropical evergreen broadleaved forests dominated by Castanopsis sclerophylla, Cyclobalanopsis glauca, Machilus thunbergii, Schima superba and Cinnamomum japonicum, and along the coast vast areas of wetland dominated by Phragmites australis, Scirpus mariqueter and Spartina alterniflora. The study area of this research contains the entire Shanghai metropolitan region and covers approximately 6340 km2 , with a maximum north–south length of about 120 km and east–west distance of about 100 km. (Fig. 2). Historically, the city of Shanghai was established in the Yuan Dynasty (1292 A.D.). The late 1800s marked a major turning point in the history of Shanghai because of the development of industry and trade port and since then, Shanghai has become the largest city in China. Shanghai is now the fastest growing area among all major Chinese cities with the population from 5.2 million in 1949 to 13.5 million in 2001 and the urban area from 91.5 km2 in 1947 to more than 800 km2 in 2000 (Shanghai Municipal Statistics Bureau, 2001). Since the beginning of the 1990s Shanghai has experienced a tremendous land transformation from an agricultural to urban area and the urban fringe has constantly advanced outward into the surrounding agricultural land. 4 L. Zhang et al. / Landscape and Urban Planning 69 (2004) 1–16 Fig. 2. 1994 Land use map of the Shanghai metropolitan area, China. The transects were west–east and south–north, and 64 km long and 6 km wide and 66 km long and 6 km wide, respectively. 3. Data and methods The analysis of structural characteristics of the Shanghai metropolitan landscape was based on the 1994 Shanghai land use data set produced by the Open Laboratory of Geographical Information Science of Chinese Education Ministry, East China Normal University. A set of 154 aerial color infrared photographs (taken in 1994) was used to create the land use map, while a topographic map of 1984 created from the Shanghai Institute of Surveying and Drawing (1:25,000) was imported as a background and auxiliary information from adjacent years was also incorporated to make up data gaps. The land use map L. Zhang et al. / Landscape and Urban Planning 69 (2004) 1–16 of the year 1994 was created by manual interpretation of the aerial color infrared photographs combining with necessary field survey and validation. This land use map was then compiled in 1997 using Arc/Info (Fig. 2, Mei et al., unpublished data). The land use data set was reclassified from 15 patch types into 7 patch types (or classes): residence, industry, agriculture, roads, water, land for construction and other urban land. This simplified land use classification scheme was justified and effective for the purpose of assessing the spatial characteristics of the major human alterations to natural or semi-natural landscapes, and for understanding some of the general patterns of their interactions. To capture some of the synoptic features of the landscape, several landscape-level metrics were calculated using the raster version of FRAGSTATS (McGarigal and Marks, 1995). The vector data (ArcView Shape files) were converted to raster format (ArcView Grids) with the same extent (6340 km2 ) and the same geographic coordinates at the pixel size of 10 m × 10 m using ESRIs ArcView Spatial Analyst. To detect the urbanization gradient of landscape pattern, we conducted a series of analyses along west–east and south–north transects cutting across the urban center (the People’s Square) of Shanghai metropolitan area (Fig. 2). Both transects had three adjacent rows 5 each composed of 32 and 33 2 km × 2 km blocks (i.e., the west–east transect was 64 km long and 6 km wide, and the south–north transect 66 km long and 6 km wide, respectively). A series of moving windows each sized 3×3 blocks (i.e., 6 km ×6 km, Fig. 3) were sampled across these two transects from west to east and south to north, each time moving one block (i.e., 2 km), thus the west–east transect was composed of 32 and the south–north transect 33 overlapping moving windows, respectively. The vector data of the moving windows were then converted to raster format at the pixel size of 10 m ×10 m and both class and landscape-level metrics were computed using with FRAGSTATS. This procedure, similar to the derivation of moving averages for a time series, smoothed out much of the noise caused by fine-scale and local variations. The redundancy and overlap among landscape metrics have been investigated previously (e.g., O’Neill et al., 1999). Not all the landscape metrics were needed to capture the changes in the composition and configuration of the landscape. We have tried to choose a small set of the metrics both sensitive to changes and numerically reliable (i.e., showing consistent trends) for depicting landscape patterns. Sixteen landscape metrics were used to quantify the landscape pattern of the Shanghai metropolitan region (Table 1). As in most cases in the existing literature, the term “landscape Fig. 3. The moving window located at the city center along the transects, size 3 × 3 blocks (i.e., 6 km × 6 km). 6 L. Zhang et al. / Landscape and Urban Planning 69 (2004) 1–16 Table 1 Landscape metrics used to quantify the spatial pattern of urbanization in metropolitan Shanghai, China (based on McGarigal and Marks, 1995) Landscape metrics Abbreviation Description Compositional measures Percent coverage PLAND The proportion of total area occupied by a particular patch type; a measure of dominance of patch types The number of patches of per 100 ha The total length of all edge segments per hectare for the class or landscape of consideration Patch richness The number of patch types in the landscape; a measure of diversity of patch types A measure of patch diversity in a landscape, which is determined by both the number of different patch types and the proportional distribution of area among patch types The ratio of the actual value of the Shannon diversity to its maximum value that is achieved when all patch types each occupy the same proportion of the landscape The ratio of the area of the largest patch to the total area of the landscape The average area of all patches in the landscape The standard deviation of patch size in the entire landscape The standard deviation of patch size divided by mean patch size for the entire landscape Patch density Edge density (m/ha) PD ED Patch richness PR Shannon diversity index SHDI Shannon evenness index SHEI Largest patch index (%) Mean patch size (ha) Patch size standard deviation (ha) Patch size coefficient of variation (%) LPI MPS PSSD PSCV Configurational measures Landscape shape index Mean patch shape index Area-weighted mean shape index Mean patch fractal dimension Area-weighted mean fractal dimension Contagion LSI MSI AWMSI MPFD AWMFD CONT The total length of patch edges within the landscape divided by the total area, adjusted by a constant for a square standard A patch-level shape index averaged over all patches in the landscape Mean patch shape index weighted by relative patch size The average fractal dimension of individual patches in the landscape The patch fractal dimension weighted by relative patch area An information theory-based index that measures the extent to which patches are spatially aggregated in the landscape pattern” here includes both the non-spatial composition (e.g., the number and relative abundance of patch types, patch size, and other related non-spatial measures) and spatial configuration (e.g., patch shape, juxtaposition, contrast, and boundary characteristics). Li and Reynolds (1994) defined spatial heterogeneity in a similar way. Specifically, we considered 10 indices as compositional measures: percent coverage (PLAND), patch density, edge density (ED), patch richness (PR), diversity (SHDI), evenness (SHEI), largest patch index (LPI), mean patch size (MPS), patch size standard deviation (PSSD), and patch size coefficient of variation (PSCV), and the remaining 6 as configurational measures: landscape shape index (LSI), mean patch shape index (MSI), area-weighted mean shape index (AWMSI), mean patch fractal dimension (MPFD), area-weighted mean fractal dimension (AWMFD), and contagion (CONT). This dichotomy of compositional versus configurational indices is apparently an oversimplification, and many of these indices reflect both aspects of landscape pattern to varying degrees (McGarigal and Marks, 1995). We adopt this simple classification scheme so as to facilitate the organization of results and their interpretation. 4. Results 4.1. Synoptic characteristics of the Shanghai metropolitan area landscape In 1994, the level of urbanization of the entire Shanghai metropolitan region was rather high, with agriculture occupying 80.8% of the area, while residence, industry, land for construction, other urban land, roads and water accounted for 2.5, 3.1, 1, 5.6, 1 L. Zhang et al. / Landscape and Urban Planning 69 (2004) 1–16 7 Fig. 4. Synoptic landscape characteristics for the Shanghai metropolitan area (the legend of land uses: A: residence, B: industry, C: agriculture, D: road, E: water, F: land for construction, and G: other urban land): (a) patch type percent cover, (b) patch density (patch number/km2 ), (c) largest patch index (% total area), and (d) mean patch size (ha). and 5.9%, respectively (Fig. 4a). The mean patch size for the entire landscape was approximately 103 ha, and the mean patch density was 0.97 patches/km2 . PD increased progressively from road, agriculture to the urban land uses (i.e., residence, industry, land for construction and other urban land), but other urban land had the highest patch density over the landscape defined by the boundary of Shanghai metropolitan area (Fig. 4b). Similar to the pattern of the relative area of patch types (Fig. 4a), agriculture had the highest values of largest patch index and MPS, and from road and water to the urban land uses (residence, industry and other urban land) both LPI and MPS continued to decrease (Fig. 4c and d). Overall, the urban land uses had the smallest values for MPS and LPI and the largest PD, together suggesting a high degree of fragmentation. The agriculture patch type had the highest proportion of cover and the highest values of LPI and MPS, indicating its dominant and least fragmented status outside the urban core and within the metropolitan boundary. However, the largest PD value of the other urban land patch type (i.e., square and parking, storehouse, science and education, green land, commerce, public utility, sport, culture and recreation and hospital) suggested a high degree of fragmentation that mostly occurred within the urban area. This interpretation was corroborated by transect analysis presented below. 4.2. Transect analysis with class-level metrics The two linear types, road and water as well as land for construction patch type (comprised a total of less than 1% of the total area) were not presented in this 8 L. Zhang et al. / Landscape and Urban Planning 69 (2004) 1–16 section for the purpose of an effective interpretation. In general, the west–east transect and the south–north transect showed similar patterns, therefore, we present here only the result of the west–east transect for class-level metrics. The percent coverage for the land use types of residence, industry, agriculture and other urban land varied with distance from the west end of the landscape transect eastward (Fig. 5a) and, in general, the relative dominance of land use types showed a somewhat symmetric pattern along the west–east transect: shifting from agriculture to industry/residence and then back to agriculture. Undoubtedly, the distances (between −15 and 5 km, while 0 km indicated the urban center) where the urban Fig. 5. Changes in landscape pattern along the west–east transect by patch type: (a) patch type percent cover, (b) patch density, (c) mean patch size, (d) patch size coefficient of variation, (e) landscape shape index, and (f) area-weighted mean shape index. The values were averages obtained using a 3 × 3 overlapping moving window. L. Zhang et al. / Landscape and Urban Planning 69 (2004) 1–16 land use types of residence, industry and other urban land peaked indicated the location of the urbanization center in the Shanghai metropolitan region. Agriculture was dominant at distances less than −20 km and again greater than 10 km, forming a ‘U’ shape. Industrial land use exhibited two peaks on both sides of the urbanization center. In contrast, residential and other urban land use types increased gradually towards, and peaked prominently at the urbanization center. The area coverage of residence was consistently greater than that of other urban land in this area. The patch density of all land use types was low from the west end of the west–east transect to −10 km, with residence/other urban land reaching a maximum around 0 km (Fig. 5b). PD of industry showed a similar pattern to its percent cover, with high values at −10 km in the west and 5 km in the east, and low values at and around the urban center. PD of all urban land use types decreased to the east of the urban center. At distances less than −15 km, the mean patch size of agriculture was high. It then decreased to low values or zero at the urban center until 10 km and increased again rapidly beyond that distance. MPS of the three urban land use types was consistently small along the west–east transect. The general pattern of MPS for agriculture mimicked the pattern of its percent cover (compare Fig. 5a and c). The variations of the mean patch size for the urban land use types were less conspicuous along the west–east transect partly because they were composed of relatively small patches. Patch size coefficient of variation showed that all land use types, except agriculture, were relatively less variable, while agriculture showed a more complex pattern with multiple peaks at different distances (Fig. 5d). Landscape shape index and area-weighted mean patch shape index of agriculture decreased at the distance of −10 km and then increased eastward from the distance of 5 km (Fig. 5e and f). Landscape shape index of residence increased from the distance of −15 km, reached its peak in the urban center and then decreased eastward, while industry and other urban land reached their peaks in the vicinity of the urban center (Fig. 5e). Area-weighted mean patch shape indices of all urban land use types (i.e., residence, industry and other urban land) were relatively less variable. 9 From Fig. 5, an urbanization center identified quantitatively by these landscape metrics, existed between distances −15 and 10 km. The south–north transect (not shown in this section) displayed a similar pattern as the west–east transect, and in the south to north direction an urbanization center could be identified between distances −10 and 15 km. Within this urban core area, the rankings of agriculture (A), residence (R), industry (I) and other urban land (U) in terms of their relative dominance were different among landscape metrics. The rankings were R > U > I > A for percent cover and patch density; R > I > U > A for mean patch size; U > R > I > A for patch size coefficient of variation; R > U > I > A for landscape shape index; and U > R > I > A for area-weighted mean patch shape index. These results seemed to characterize the urban core of the Shanghai metropolitan area accurately and precisely: agriculture patches were abundant and less fragmented; urban land use types were extensive, having many small patches and highly fragmented. 4.3. Transect analysis with landscape-level metrics In this section, we first present the compositional and then the configurational landscape-level metrics, combining all the seven land use types, to quantify the spatial pattern of urbanization along the west–east and south–north transects. The curves of compositional landscape-level metrics along the west–east and south–north transects exhibited qualitatively similar patterns (Fig. 6). The density of both patches (PD) and their edges (ED) per moving window (6 km×6 km) were low from the west and the south ends of the transects, then increased and reached peaks at the urban center, thereafter decreased to the east and the north of the urban center (Fig. 6a and b). An increase in PD and ED apparently occurred between −20 and 10 km along the west–east transect and between −30 and 10 km along the south–north transect, indicating dramatic increase in the degree of landscape fragmentation—on an average, the contiguous agriculture landscape has increasingly become a patchwork of different urban land use types. Patch richness, the number of land use types, was low outside the urban area and increased within the urban area (Fig. 6c). While this information itself is rather straightforward, PR as well as Shannon evenness 10 L. Zhang et al. / Landscape and Urban Planning 69 (2004) 1–16 Fig. 6. Changes in landscape-level compositional metrics along the transects (west–east transect is solid line and south–north transect is dashed line): (a) patch density (patch number/km2 ), (b) edge density (m/ha), (c) patch richness, (d) Shannon diversity index, (e) Shannon evenness index, (f) largest patch index (%), (g) mean patch size (ha), and (h) patch size standard deviation (ha). L. Zhang et al. / Landscape and Urban Planning 69 (2004) 1–16 index (SHEI), is needed to interpret the change in Shannon diversity index (SHDI) adequately because SHDI is determined by both of them. It is clear from Fig. 6c-e, the increasing diversity of land use types with urbanization has been attributable mainly to the increasing uneven areal distribution of the seven land use types. Comparing Fig. 6c-e with Fig. 5a reveals that the constant increase in SHEI corresponded to 11 both the declining dominance status of agriculture and the increasing proportions of the urban land use types. That is, towards the urban center, the Shanghai metropolitan landscape became more fragmented and more evenly distributed among land use types. The largest patch within the landscape and the mean patch size continued to decrease towards the urban center, as expected, but the drastically faster decline Fig. 7. Changes in landscape-level configurational metrics along the transects (west–east transect is solid line and south–north transect is dashed line): (a) landscape shape index, (b) mean patch fractal dimension, (c) area-weighted mean patch fractal dimension, (d) contagion, (e) mean patch shape index, and (f) area-weighted mean patch shape index. 12 L. Zhang et al. / Landscape and Urban Planning 69 (2004) 1–16 in the urban area is noteworthy (Fig. 6f and g). The absolute variation of patch size among all land use types across the landscape (patch size standard deviation, PSSD) decreased dramatically within the urban area (Fig. 6h). This was a direct result of the rapid decrease in patch size along both transects towards the urban center (Fig. 6f and g). The compositional aspect of the Shanghai landscape pattern corroborated quite well the interpretation of the results of class-level metrics presented in the previous section. The configurational landscape-level metrics showed both similar and different patterns as compared to the compositional landscape-level metrics along the west–east and south–north transects in the Shanghai metropolitan landscape. Landscape shape index, a form of patch perimeter–area ratio at the landscape level, showed a similar pattern as the compositional landscape-level metrics of PD and ED (Figs. 6a and b and 7a). This pattern suggested that the shape of the landscape as a patch mosaic became more irregular with urbanization. The results of the mean patch fractal dimension and area-weighted mean fractal dimension did not show consistent patterns (Fig. 7b and c) because of the insufficient number of patches (within each moving window, 6 km × 6 km) to calculate these metrics and no information on statistical significance was available. While contagion, measuring the degree of clumping of patches that pertains to both the compositional and configurational aspects of landscape pattern, declined in the urban area (Fig. 7d). Its behavior showed a similar pattern as that of MPS (Figs. 6g and 7d). In general, these landscape-level indices showed that the landscape shape complexity and the degree of fragmentation (conversely related to CONT) of the Shanghai metropolitan region increased considerably towards the urban center. How did the shape of individual patches change towards the urban center, and how did it relate to the landscape-level shape complexity? Fig. 7e and f depicts the average changes in patch shape with two indices. Mean patch shape index remained relatively unchanged and did not show any obvious trend along the west–east and south–north transects, while area-weighted mean shape index increased considerably in the urban area (Fig. 7e and f), resembling the pattern shown by LSI (Fig. 7a). 5. Discussion and conclusions 5.1. General urbanization patterns in the metropolitan Shanghai region Our study has demonstrated that the center and spatial pattern of urbanization can be quantified using a combination of landscape metrics and gradient analysis. The results from our study can adequately address the research questions we defined earlier in Section 1: how do different land use types change with distance away from the urban center? Do different land use types have their own unique spatial signatures? Can urbanization gradients be detected using landscape pattern analysis? While the answer to these questions is generally affirmative, more details are discussed below. The different land use types exhibited distinctive, but not necessarily unique, spatial signatures that were dependent on specific landscape metrics. For example, for patch type percent coverage, patch density, patch size coefficient of variation, landscape shape index, and area-weighted mean patch shape index, the residence and other urban land displayed similar patterns along the transects from west and south ends to the urban center, and then eastwards and northwards—a largely monotonic gradient with its peak at the urban core. Industry showed a similar pattern, while with two peaks in the vicinity of urban area. For all the six class-level measures, agriculture displayed a very different, yet unique, multiple-peaked pattern. Therefore, different land use types may indeed show distinctive “spatial signatures” as distance based “landscape pattern profiles” which may be used to compare urban developmental patterns between cities among different regions and dynamics of the same city over time (Wu et al., 2003). It was clear, though not surprising, from this study that the degree of human impact on the Shanghai landscape depended on the distance from the urban center. An urbanization center was clearly identifiable with the landscape metrics when plotted along both transects. Specifically, both the class-level and landscape-level metrics indicated dramatic changes in landscape pattern at −20 and 10 km along the west–east transect and at −30 and 10 km along the south–north transect, marking the urbanizing front of the Shanghai metropolitan area in the west–east L. Zhang et al. / Landscape and Urban Planning 69 (2004) 1–16 and south–north directions. While the landscape-level metrics were able to characterize the center of urbanization as having the smallest mean patch size and the highest patch richness, patch density, edge density, patch size standard deviation, landscape shape index, and area-weighted mean shape index, the class-level indices provided more detailed information on the relative contributions of individual land use types. The high degrees of fragmentation and spatial complexity of the urbanization center, while not new findings, were able to be quantified in relation to distance and individual land use types. Processes and factors responsible for urbanization such as socioeconomic activities, accessibility to transportation and service, natural conditions, and urban planning resulted in the heterogeneous arrangement of land uses in the Shanghai metropolitan area (Mei et al., unpublished data). Although the distance-dependent trends of land use as represented by different landscape metrics were not exactly linear or symmetrical, some general patterns did emerge. Urbanization in the Shanghai metropolitan region has resulted in dramatic increases in patch density, edge density, and patch and landscape shape complexity, and sharp decreases in the largest and mean patch size, agriculture habit area, and landscape connectivity (Figs. 6 and 7). The general pattern of urbanization revealed here was that the increasingly urbanized landscape became compositionally more diverse, geometrically more complex, and ecologically more fragmented. 5.2. Testing landscape modification gradient hypotheses The results of our study can also adequately address the last research question we defined earlier in Section 1: to test the hypotheses on landscape structural responses along a human modification gradient postulated by Forman and Godron (1986): the patch density will increase with urbanization, the regularity of patch shape will increase with urbanization, both the mean and variance of patch size decrease with urbanization and landscape connectivity will decrease with urbanization. Our results can be used to test these hypotheses because the landscape transect analysis data set for the Shanghai metropolitan region represents a landscape transition from largely 13 semi-natural agriculture, agricultural urban mix, to highly urbanized city core along the transects. The results from our analysis showed that, with increasing urbanization: (1) patch densities indeed increased exponentially (Fig. 6a); (2) the shape complexity of individual patches seemed lower at the agriculture-dominated area, but became more complex in general (Fig. 7b and f); (3) both patch size and its variance decreased similarly (Fig. 6g and h); and (4) landscape connectivity, if assumed to be positively related to contagion or negatively to patch (or edge) density, decreased in an accelerating manner (Figs. 6a and b and 7d). Thus, our results were in complete agreement with Hypothesis 1 (patch density), and supported Hypotheses 3 (patch size) and 4 (connectivity) in general. However, the results on patch shape seemed apparently at odds with the hypothesized pattern. Our interpretation is that, when the degree of urbanization is high, not only the density, but also the shape complexity, of patches will increase. Future studies are needed to further confirm these findings. 5.3. Testing the existing theories of urban morphology Although this study was not designed to test the existing theories of urban development, the results of this rapidly growing metropolitan Shanghai may provide some interesting perspectives on urban morphology. First of all, both 64 and 66 km long and 15 km wide west–east and south–north transects in this study provided an excellent opportunity for characterizing broad-scale landscape pattern change along a rural–urban–rural environment gradient, which has not been reported in any Chinese city. The urbanization gradient revealed by our transect analysis seemed to suggest that different land use zones were distinguishable: agriculture—industry—other urban land/residence—industry—agriculture (see Fig. 5a). The classic concentric zone theory seems to be able to account adequately for the land use pattern of the Shanghai metropolitan region up to the year 1994, and this is partly because these classic theories of urban morphology were developed based primarily on studies of old and well-established cities (i.e., Chicago, San Francisco, and Boston). In recent decades, a variety of new theories and methods have been developed for describing urban 14 L. Zhang et al. / Landscape and Urban Planning 69 (2004) 1–16 forms and dynamics. These include catastrophe theory (Wilson, 1976), chaos theory (Wong and Fotheringham, 1990), dissipative structure theory (Allen and Sanglier, 1979), fractals (Batty and Longley, 1989 cellular automata (Batty, 1997), and theory of self-organization (Schweitzer, 1997; Portugali, 2000). These new approaches emphasize the dynamics of urban landscape pattern and its relation to local-scale generating processes. Also in sharp contrast with the traditional views, these new approaches are based on non-equilibrium and nonlinear dynamics perspectives. In addition, from fractals to cellular automata and to self-organization, bottom-up and local interactions are viewed essential for the formation of urban systems. As Shanghai was growing rapidly in the 1990s and the beginning of the 21st century, which may be indicative of a fast growing city, or urban development among Chinese coastal cities, or more likely both, these new theories and methods seem more appropriate for understanding the urbanization development of Shanghai metropolitan region in the near future. 5.4. Importance of quantifying spatial patterns of urbanization To understand the ecological and socioeconomic consequences of urbanization, it is necessary to quantify the spatial patterns of urban landscapes. First, urban systems are spatially extended systems in which physical, ecological, and socioeconomic processes create, maintain, or destroy spatial patterns, and at the same time spatial patterns facilitate, inhibit, or neutralize these processes. The changes in landscape pattern along the transects as revealed by our analysis may have important ecological implications. For example, the elimination of large agriculture patches, increased habitat fragmentation, and substantially high patch density of human land use types may significantly affect the biogeochemical cycling and biota of this area (e.g., Brady et al., 1979; Kent et al., 1999; Baker et al., 2001; McIntyre et al., 2001). Thus, relating pattern to process is essential to understanding urban ecosystems, and this cannot be done effectively without first quantifying the spatial pattern of the urbanized and urbanizing areas under consideration. Second, prediction is one of the ultimate goals of any science although the emerging science of complexity suggests that complex self-organizing systems, such as ecological and socioeconomic systems, are effectively unpredictable (Schweitzer, 1997; Portugali, 2000). Nevertheless, projections (scenario-based forecasts) of future urbanization and its ecological and socioeconomic impacts are often needed for a variety of purposes including urban planning, resource management, and biodiversity conservation (e.g., Fairbanks and Benn, 2000; Jensen et al., 2000; Pauleit and Duhme, 2000; Veldkamp and Lambin, 2001). Urban planning and decision-making for sustainable development urgently need data of high spatial resolution to establish the relationship between the socioeconomic performance of the urban system and its different subunits (i.e., housing schemes, commercial and industrial developments, services) on the one hand and their environmental impacts of these subunits on the other (Pauleit and Duhme, 2000). Such projections and designs of more environmentally efficient urban development often require the quantification of spatial patterns. Third, to understand urban systems adequately they must be studied as integrated landscapes in which context and spatial relations are as important as entities and processes. This landscape perspective needs to emphasize heterogeneity, inter-disciplines, holistic properties, and the integration among pattern, process, scale, and hierarchical linkages (Pickett et al., 1997; Bastian, 2000; Collins et al., 2000; Naveh, 2000; Portugali, 2000; Zipperer et al., 2000). The effects of the urbanization pattern on ecological conditions and processes are the focus of urban landscape ecology and can help understand the relationship between the landscape pattern and urban ecological processes (Hobbs, 1988; Cook, 1991; Foresman et al., 1997; Pickett et al., 1997; Antrop and Van Eetvelde, 2000; Zipperer et al., 2000). In particular, combining gradient analysis with landscape metrics, as illustrated here, can help to identify quantitatively and characterize the gradients and complex spatial pattern of urbanization, which can subsequently be related to ecological and socioeconomic processes (McDonnell et al., 1997). This study was only a first step towards understanding the structure and functioning of the Shanghai urban landscape. The extension of this study to understanding the mechanisms involved in urban landscape pattern formation necessitates a more comprehensive framework L. Zhang et al. / Landscape and Urban Planning 69 (2004) 1–16 that explicitly incorporates geographical, ecological, socioeconomic, and political considerations. Acknowledgements We thank Prof. Martin Kent, Plymouth University, UK for valuable comments and linguistic checking, and Dr. Jianguo Wu, Arizona State University, USA for helpful discussion. Dr. Denis Saunders and two anonymous reviewers provided valuable comments on earlier drafts of this paper were also appreciated. This research has been supported by grants from Chinese National Science Foundation for Key Projects (40131030), the Shanghai Priority Academic Discipline and the State’s 10th 5-year “211 Project”-supported key academic discipline program of ECNU. 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Spatial and temporal patterns of land use and land cover change in the Phoenix metropolitan region, USA (1912–1995). Landsc. Ecol., submitted for publication. Zhu, W., Carreiro, M.M., 1999. Chemoautotrophic nitrification in acidic forest soils along an urban-to-rural transect, Soil Biol. Biochem. 1091–1100. Zipperer, W.C., Wu, J., Pouyat, R.V., Pickett, S.T.A., 2000. The application of ecological principles to urban and urbanizing landscapes. Ecol. Appl. 10, 685–688. Liquan Zhang is currently a professor of ecology of the State Key Laboratory of Estuarine and Coastal Research at the East China Normal University, China. He holds a BS in biology from the East China Normal University in 1978 and a PhD in ecology from the Uppsala University, Sweden in 1983. His research and publications focus on landscape ecology, plant population ecology, community and ecosystem ecology and wetland ecology. His recent work focuses on the relationship between the landscape patterns and the ecological processes, and how wetland vegetations and ecosystems in Yangtze estuary respond to natural and anthropogenic disturbance. He has published about 40 peer-reviewed articles over a wide range of topics.
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