China Sustainability Project
POLICY BRIEF SERIES
Low Carbon Cities in China, Serious Challenges and Signs
of Hope
André Corrêa d'Almeida* and Travis Bradford**
October 8, 2014
Our recent trip to China was designed to
explore sustainability issues in several
megacities. The continued growth of the
world's largest and fastest growing economy is
still apparent in cities from Shenzhen to
Shanghai to Beijing, but we wanted to
understand better the process by which this
now-middle-income economy is working to
make the turn to a more energy-efficient and
environmentally sustainable system that is
necessary to enable continued growth in wealth
and prosperity. More specifically we wanted to
capture the perceptions of local major actors politicians, city administrators, scholars,
citizens, and international organizations - on
these issues. This post is to a very large extent
informed by both multiple conversations held
with these development agents and many hours
of discussions between the two of us.
Despite the worst fears of impending
environmental tragedy that arise from a reading
of air quality data or the trajectory of coal use,
China is walking a path that many cities and
nations have walked before.
London, Los Angeles, New York City, and Tokyo
among many other places have also had periods
of deeply disturbing environmental degradation
and predictions of worse to come. Yet these
cities today have some of the best
environmental conditions they have enjoyed in
decades, with plans in place to continue
building on these gains (see Figure 1).
Fig. 1: Air Pollution in London (1952) vs. Beijing
(2013)
Unfortunately, counter-examples also exist
from Manila to Mexico City to Rio de Janeiro,
where good intentions have failed to
materialize.
Therefore, China's urban environmental
trajectory can be understood by examining
* André Corrêa d’Almeida, PhD, is an Adjunct Professor at the School of International and Public Affairs
and Program Director at the Earth Institute, Columbia University.
** Travis Bradford is an Associate Professor of Practice and the Director of the Energy and Environment
Concentration at the School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University.
www.cgsd.columbia.edu/china
China Sustainability Project
what led to the trajectory changes in places like
London, and whether China can replicate these
circumstances in the years ahead.
Chinese authorities are willing to introduce new
measures as it is how fast and effectively will
these be introduced.
The good news is that the national conversation
on these issues, repeated often at the 2nd
Annual Shenzhen Sustainability Forum where
we both spoke in June, is firmly positive on the
potential to do so. This optimism is based on a
combination of the messages being received
from the Chinese Government saying that
environmental factors are important aspects of
overall development strategy and a deeply held
conviction that anything the Chinese
government wants it will achieve.
It is true that China, much more so than most
countries today, has the ability to provide the
necessary certainty and rapidity to the
investment in cleaner and sustainable
technologies. Largely due to a strong central
government and leadership, China suffers less
from many types of policy uncertainty than
more market-oriented economies, with very
clear signaling leading to action and investment.
In addition, deeper control over the banking
sector and project finance allows for more
targeted investment in desired technologies
and industries, as well as very strict and clear
prohibitions on activity and investment that is
not. Witness the closure of roughly 2000 small
coal-mining firms planned for 2014 as part of
the Beijing's ongoing effort to reduce the
alarming rates of air pollution.
For instance, in 2013, the 3rd Plenary Session of
18th CPC Central Committee has confirmed that
"building ecological civilization system" is a key
aspect of China's social reform by 2020. The
Committee stated "we must deepen ecological
environment management reform by centering
on building a beautiful China. We should
accelerate system building to promote
ecological progress, improve institutions and
mechanisms for developing geographical space,
conserving resources and protecting the
ecological environment and promoting
modernization featuring harmonious
development between Man and Nature."
One problem, however, is that even in best
case-scenario impacts resulting from new
environmental measures will take decades to
materialize. For instance, the air quality in Los
Angeles today is the result of a multi-decadal
effort began from the nation's first urban air
pollution control program in 1947. This program
has undergone multiple major updates every
decade. In London this process was initiated in
1954 with the introduction of smokeless zones
and in 1956 with The Clean Air Act. So the
critical question is not so much whether
Conviction is important, though, in making the
shift toward sustainable energy and
environmental practices. In the LA and London
examples this conviction arose from a broad
recognition of the damage the pollution caused
in health and economic terms, and strong
pluralities formed and allowed for a public
consensus to emerge on the need for improved
outcomes.
This public outcry is happening in China today,
which the Chinese government is observing
with rising anxiety, with a growing number of
environmental protests signaling a galvanized
public opinion. The frequency of protests is
rising as China's increasingly affluent and
middle-class society becomes more aware of
environmental issues, and protests concerning
incidents of environmental pollution in China
have grown by an average of 29% every year.
www.cgsd.columbia.edu/china
2
China Sustainability Project
The number of environmental protests rose by
120% from 2010 to 2011, according to Yang
Chaofei, the vice-chairman of the Chinese
Society for Environmental Sciences.
The government is responding with a slate of
specific improvements. Since 2003, China has
implemented a series of regulations and
policies, including the Measures on
Environmental Information Disclosure,
promoting the release of environmental
information and providing an important basis
for public participation in the prevention of
pollution. By 2010, the public pressure created
by information disclosure has caused over 300
firms in breach of regulations to explain why
the problems arose and the measures taken to
resolve them.
Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei was determined as China's
"most polluted" region last year, and, among
them, agreed to burn 63 million fewer tones of
coal by 2017 than in 2012. Shanghai and its
surrounding Yangtze River Delta, have claimed
to reduce pm2.5 concentration by 20% in three
years, through cutting coal consumption,
promoting clean energy, encouraging lowcarbon transportation, enhancing regional
environmental management, and strengthening
political and technical support.
the official statistics that tell an improving story.
Coal use, coal imports, and the number of coalfired power plants operating in the country are
all still rising and are expected by most
forecasters to continue doing so. A short flight
from Shanghai to Beijing was an anecdotal
reality check on the situation, with the air
quality issues having escaped the urban
boundaries to now cover much of the costal
region, and rivers choked with algae visible
from the air.
If China is going to turn the corner on these
issues, much more work will have to be done.
More technological fixes and investment are
certainly needed, but additional accountability
would help to ensure that the promises and
good intentions of the current Central
Government's response to public opinion leads
to real improvement in the health and welfare
outcomes that will make China a truly great
power for a long time to come.
And on April 24, 2014, Chinese legislators
passed the first amendments to the country's
environmental protection law in 25 years,
setting environmental protection as the
country's basic policy, promising greater powers
for environmental authorities and harsher
punishments for polluters.
Unfortunately, beyond these stated goals, there
is very little evidence that the trajectory of
pollution and fossil fuel use is turning. Air
quality measures of industrial pollutants,
particulates, and smog are worsening, despite
www.cgsd.columbia.edu/china
3