Facilitating the Use of Drought Early Warning Information through Interactions with Stakeholders Jason Otkin University of Wisconsin-Madison, Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies Mark Shafer University of Oklahoma, Oklahoma Climatological Survey Mark Svoboda University of Nebraska-Lincoln, Drought Mitigation Center Brian Wardlow University of Nebraska-Lincoln, CALMIT Martha Anderson USDA-Agricultural Research Service, Hydrology and Remote Sensing Laboratory Funding: NOAA Climate Program Office Sectoral Applications Research Program (SARP) and NOAA Climate Program Office Modeling Analysis, Predictions and Projections (MAPP) Evaporative Stress Index (ESI) • Remotely sensed land surface temperatures retrieved from GOES thermal infrared imagery can provide a reliable signal of incipient drought stress • As root zone soil moisture decreases, canopy temperatures rise in comparison to unstressed vegetation because less energy is being used for evaporation • The ALEXI land surface energy balance model uses this relationship to estimate evapotranspiration (ET) at high resolution • Drought severity is inferred from reductions in the ratio of real to potential ET, as expressed by the Evaporative Stress Index • Negative ESI anomalies indicate drier than average conditions, whereas positive anomalies indicate wetter conditions Climate Prediction Applications Science Workshop, Las Cruces, NM, 25 March 2015 2011 Flash Drought – Domain Images USDM USDM ESI Rainfall ESI_04WK PRECIP_04WK May May April April • Highly variable rainfall during April and May (wet in the east, dry in the west) June June • Drought conditions rapidly expanded northward during June and July July July • USDM indicates that parts of OK and AR experienced up to a 3 category increase in drought severity during July D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 Drought Category -2.0 -1.0 0 1.0 ESI Anomaly 2.0 0 5 10 15 20 Accumulated Precipitation (cm) Climate Prediction Applications Science Workshop, Las Cruces, NM, 25 March 2015 2011 Flash Drought – Time Series • Time series of surface weather conditions across eastern OK and western AR DRIVERS RESPONSE • Hot temperatures, strong winds and diminished cloud cover anomalies developed by the end of May and then persisted all summer • Strongly negative ESI values by the middle of June indicate that the vegetation was unable to adequately respond to the extreme conditions Climate Prediction Applications Science Workshop, Las Cruces, NM, 25 March 2015 2011 Flash Drought – “Plume” Diagram Current Changes • Change indicators show that conditions were already starting to rapidly deteriorate at the end of May • Rapid deterioration began one month before similar large changes occurred in the USDM • First three columns show the USDM, weekly rainfall, and 3-month SPI • Next three columns show 2, 4, and 8 week ESI composites • Last twelve columns show weekly ESI change variables Climate Prediction Applications Science Workshop, Las Cruces, NM, 25 March 2015 Rapid Change Index • The Rapid Change Index (RCI) was developed to encapsulate the accumulated rate of moisture stress change occurring during the full duration of a rapid change event • It is designed to identify areas experiencing either rapid increases or rapid decreases in moisture stress • It is computed using “standardized change anomalies” depicting how rapidly the ESI is changing with time • Negative RCI values correspond to periods of rapidly drying conditions while positive values indicate improving conditions Climate Prediction Applications Science Workshop, Las Cruces, NM, 25 March 2015 2012 Central U.S. Flash Drought Rainfall ESI RCI USDM • Large negative RCI values in the top row indicate that moisture stress was rapidly increasing at the beginning of summer • Impressive scope of the unusually rapid decrease in the ESI anomalies is clearly depicted by the large area of negative RCI values • Initial appearance of negative RCI values led the introduction of severe drought in the USDM by more than 4 weeks Climate Prediction Applications Science Workshop, Las Cruces, NM, 25 March 2015 Focus Group Meeting Description • Meetings convened with stakeholders from NIDIS Southern Plains (Norman, OK) and Missouri River Basin (Lincoln, NE) pilot regions in August 2014 • All attendees invited based on prior interest in drought mitigation • 30 people with diverse backgrounds attended the meetings • 70% researchers, 20% government, and 10% agriculture • Each meeting included an interactive discussion on the common characteristics of flash drought events and their societal impacts • Attendees were introduced to the ESI and associated drought monitoring products such as the RCI and ESI change anomalies • Attendees were asked to assess utility of these datasets through group discussions, analysis of drought events, and a questionnaire Climate Prediction Applications Science Workshop, Las Cruces, NM, 25 March 2015 ESI Drought Early Warning Assessment • Most attendees had a favorable opinion of the ESI (89%) and RCI (68%) datasets • Attendees generally preferred to view these variables in map form when assessing current drought conditions • Most helpful when used together because ESI shows current conditions, whereas RCI shows how they have changed • Feedback was less favorable when assessing the ESI change anomalies because they found them more difficult to interpret • Standardized change anomalies, not numerical differences • Preferred the RCI even though it is computed using the ESI change anomalies • Indicates that the RCI formulation adds value Climate Prediction Applications Science Workshop, Las Cruces, NM, 25 March 2015 ESI Drought Early Warning Assessment • Mixed reaction to the “plume” diagrams – opinion would likely improve after they gain more experience using them • Many people appreciated how they provide a concise view of the current drought status and how things are changing with time • Feedback was unfavorable (31% liked them) at the first meeting, but much more positive (80%) at the second meeting • Better response at the second meeting was mostly due to the presenters taking more time to explain how to use them • Shows the need to allow sufficient time to thoroughly explain new visualization methods to the general public Climate Prediction Applications Science Workshop, Las Cruces, NM, 25 March 2015 Potential Drought Early Warning Applications • Ranchers could use early warning of worsening conditions to preemptively move livestock or purchase supplemental feed • Farmers could use drought early warning when making marketing decisions or to decide whether to plant a cover crop • Government agencies use information to reposition resources to better prepare for drought in specific regions • Incorporation of drought early warning indicators in the USDM could lead to earlier drought declarations • Could lead to earlier implementation of emergency farm programs that would promote more timely drought relief measures when flash droughts occur Climate Prediction Applications Science Workshop, Las Cruces, NM, 25 March 2015 Flash Drought References Otkin, J. A., M. Shafer, M. Svoboda, B. Wardlow, M. C. Anderson, C. Hain, and J. Basara, 2015: Facilitating the use of drought early warning information through interactions with stakeholders. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., in press. Otkin, J. A., M. C. Anderson, C. Hain, and M. Svoboda, 2015: Using temporal changes in drought indices to generate probabilistic drought intensification forecasts. J. Hydrometeor., 16, 88-105. Otkin, J. A., M. C. Anderson, C. Hain, and M. Svoboda, 2014: Examining the relationship between drought development and rapid changes in the Evaporative Stress Index. J. Hydrometeor., 15, 938-956. Otkin, J. A., M. C. Anderson, C. Hain, I. Mladenova, J. Basara, and M. Svoboda, 2013: Examining flash drought development using the thermal infrared based Evaporative Stress Index. J. Hydrometeor., 14, 1057-1074. Anderson, M. C., C. Hain, J. A. Otkin, X. Zhan, K. Mo, M. Svoboda, W. Dulaney, and A. Pimstein, 2013: An intercomparison of drought indicators based on thermal remote sensing and NLDAS-2 simulations with U.S. Drought Monitor classifications. J. Hydrometeor., 14, 1035-1056. Climate Prediction Applications Science Workshop, Las Cruces, NM, 25 March 2015
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