US Army Corps of Engineers: Project Operation Planning in Response to Drought Bryan Baker, PE, ERDC-CRREL-NH Ariane O. Pinson, Ph.D., Albuquerque District Aimee Jordan, Tulsa District 25 March 2015 1 USACE Institute for Water Resources Responses to Climate Change Program  Districts vs. research centers  ERDC IWR – Develop, implement changes to planning and project operations to enhance resilience or reduce vulnerability to climate change. – National coordination – Pilot projects (adaptation) – Guidance development – sea level rise; inland hydrology  Drought Contingency Planning Project 2 USACE Drought Impacts  Key water operations concern – 707 water supply and flood risk management projects (excluding levees)  Over 600 dams  Long term planning/critical infrastructure – – – – – Water supply Navigation Hydropower Flood risk management Ecosystem restoration Drought on the Mississippi River in 2012 (courtesy USDA https://www.flickr.com/photos/usdagov/sets/72157632478126941/) 3 Costs of the Ongoing SWT Drought 4 Revisiting Drought Contingency Plans (DCPs) 1981 guidance  Identifies when drought operations initiated  Consultation, coordination, and priorities during drought Updating guidance  Gap analysis of existing USACE DCPs  Drought changes under climate change  Propose revisions to guidance to account for climate change  Pilot project(s) to test the DCP guidance  Develop new tools for tracking impacts and solutions 5 Existing Drought Contingency Plans (DCP) • Survey of Districts to determine DCP availability and quality • 142 plans exist covering 301 Corps Projects • None address changing frequencies due to climate change 6 Geographic distribution of Drought Contingency Plans 3/25/2015 7 Projected Changes in Drought Not Addressed Summer/ fall drought poss. Snowpack Drought No change Summer/ fall drought Drought >6 months (west) Severe drought Drought south/west Drought north/east Drought Multi-year Drought Drought 3/25/2015 8 Projected Changes in the Number of Consecutive Dry Days for 2070-2099 compared to 1971-2000 U.S. National Climate Assessment (http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report/sectors/agriculture) 9 Tipping Points: Thresholds, Lead Times, Decision Points in Drought Planning under Climate Change Threshold value of indicator when intervention is needed Indicator value (e.g. sea level rise) Decision point based on best estimate Predicted values of indicator based on rate of change Recorded values of indicator Date of review Lead time for planning and construction Time 1010 DCP Pilot Study: Great Lakes and Ohio River Division IWR RCC pilot study area Drought priorities • • • • • Water supply Water quality Navigation Hydropower Recreation DCP omissions • Climate change • Recent droughts • New drought monitoring tools and data 11 Approach to Updating the Drought Contingency Plan Describe regional drought history • Historical drought impacts, drought indicators, climate change effects Scenario planning • Low flows under increasing drought severity • Sensitivity testing of alternative water management strategies Revise DCP and update frequency and duration curves www.cumberlandrivercompact.org 3/25/2015 12 Path Forward  Completion of DCP draft guidance and pilot studies  Evaluation of pilot study results  Complete guidance  DCP revision  Development of National Tools 13 Collaboration for Downscaled Climate Projections 14 Standardized Precipitation Index Observed and GCM Flow Frequency Curve Thanks! 17 National Dataset: Hydrology Tableau Thing 18