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NADA Used Car Guide
Industry Update
February 2014

Used Vehicle Prices Flat in January
Prices tick up by 0.1%; NADA’s used vehicle price
index remains unchanged at 124.6

Used Prices Expected to Climb by 2.1% in February
Prices to climb marginally in March before falling the
remainder of the year

February Official Used Car Guide® Movement
Trade-in values raised by an average of 1%; car and
truck values increase by 1.2% and 0.8%, respectively

Weather Stalls New Vehicle Sales Growth
Sales drop by 3%; Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate
reaches 15.2M
Guidelines | February 2014
TABLE OF CONTENTS
New & Used Market Trends ........................................................................................................ 2
Economic Data ............................................................................................................................. 12
NADA Official Used Car Guide Value Trends ............................................................................... 16
At NADA Used Car Guide ............................................................................................................. 17
NEW & USED MARKET TRENDS
The continuous blasts of arctic weather that affected large swaths of the country did
little to push used vehicle prices off of their expected course in January, as the month’s
essentially flat increase of just 0.1% relative to December was in line with NADA’s
forecast for the period. NADA’s seasonally adjusted used vehicle price
index was unchanged at 124.6 in January, tied with two other months
(August 2013 and December 2013) as the third highest figure ever
NADA’s used
recorded.
Price movement for the majority of segments fell between a tight
range of -0.3% to 0.4%, with compact utility, large SUV and mid-size
van prices dropping slightly, while compact car, large pickup and midsize utility prices inched up; mid-size car prices were flat over the
month.
vehicle price
index remains unchanged at
124.6, tied with August 2013
and December 2013 as the
third highest ever recorded.
On an annual basis, wholesale prices ended the
month a scant 0.3% higher than they were in
January 2013. For the eighth month in a row, large
pickup prices were at least 10% higher than they
January 2010 = 100
Per the seasonal norm, luxury car and utility prices continued to fall in
January, dropping by respective figures of 1.1% and
NADA Used Vehicle Price Index
0.9%. Luxury car losses were a notable one
Vehicles up to eight years in age. Seasonally adjusted.
percentage point improvement over December’s
130
2.1% drop, while luxury utility depreciation matched
120
December’s figure; declines for both segments also
110
essentially equaled what was recorded for the
100
month last year.
January 2014:
Index
unchanged at
124.6
90
80
70
Month
Source: NADA Used Ca r Guide
NADA Used Car Guide | 8400 Westpark Drive | McLean, VA 22102 | 800.544.6232 | nada.com/b2b
© 2014 NADA Used Car Guide
2
Guidelines | February 2014
[ NEW & USED MARKET TRENDS continued ]
were on a prior-year basis and January marked an
incredible 59th straight month of annual price
growth for the segment – the longest streak of
growth recorded for any group of vehicles.
Monthly AuctionNet Price Change - December 2013 vs. January 2014
Vehicles up to eight years in age.
0.7%
0.4%
0.1%
0.0%
-0.3%
-0.2%
-0.3%
-0.3%
-0.8%
Percent Change
Exhibiting similar strength, large SUV prices were
6.2% higher on a prior-year basis last month;
however, this is the lowest annual improvement
recorded since January 2012’s figure of 5.9%. At 2%
and 3%, respectively, mid-size utilities and vans
rounded out the list of segments whose prices
remained in the green compared to last year.
0.4%
0.3%
0.2%
-1.3%
-1.1%
-0.9%
-1.8%
-2.3%
-2.8%
-3.3%
-3.8%
Compact Car
Compact
Utility
Large Pickup
Large SUV
Luxury Car Luxury Utility Mid-Size Car
Mid-Size
Utility
Mid-Size Van
Market
Average
Segment
Source: NADA Used Ca r Guide
Source: NADA
Annual AuctionNet Price Change - YTD, 2013 vs. 2014
Through January. Vehicles up to eight years in age.
12.0%
10.0%
10.0%
8.0%
6.2%
Percent Change
As for declines, compact car, mid-size car and luxury
utility prices were on average 0.8% lower relative to
last year, while compact utility prices were down by
1.4%. Bringing up the rear was the luxury car
segment, whose 2.8% fall extended the group’s
monthly year-over-year losses to 13 straight.
AuctionNet Volume Trends
The average number of weekly AuctionNet sales was
6.0%
4.0%
3.0%
2.0%
2.0%
0.3%
0.0%
6% higher in January than it was in the preceding
-2.0%
four-week period (excluding holiday weeks), with
-4.0%
-0.8%
-0.7%
-2.8%
Compact Car Compact
Utility
growth led by a combined 16.2% jump in the
-0.9%
-1.4%
Large Pickup Large SUV
Luxury Car
Luxury
Utility
Mid-Size Car
Mid-Size
Utility
Mid-Size
Van
Market
Average
Segment
number of 2011 and 2012 model year transactions
Source: NADA Used Ca r Guide
Source: NADA
(the 2014 model year increase of nearly 63% was off
of a low base).
Weekly sales volume increased by a smaller 7% for the 2013 model year, while sales for model years 2007 through
2009 dropped by an average of 1.3%; signaling dissipating off-lease volume, the average number of transactions for the
2010 model year dropped by a substantial 7.6%.
AuctionNet® Auction Volume Trends
The average number of weekly AuctionNet transactions.
Period
Prior 4-wk Avg.*
Current 4-wk Avg.
Difference (%)
2007
8,357
8,237
-1.4%
2008
7,470
7,345
-1.7%
2009
4,323
4,295
-0.7%
Model Year
2010
2011
8,418
11,669
7,778
13,638
-7.6%
16.9%
2012
9,083
10,503
15.6%
2013
12,437
13,304
7.0%
2014
495
804
62.5%
Source: NADA Used Car Guide
*Excludes the holiday weeks of 11/25, 12/23 & 12/30/13
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© 2014 NADA Used Car Guide
3
Guidelines | February 2014
[ NEW & USED MARKET TRENDS continued ]
It’s worth noting that the number of 2013 model year
to follow a familiar seasonal pattern, with prices
transactions recorded last month was 13% lower than
continuing to grow slightly through March before falling
those of 2012 model year units captured in January 2013.
throughout the rest of the year. NADA predicts overall
Given the foul weather that gripped much of the country,
depreciation from April through December will average
it’s highly likely that fewer rental
2.3% per month; by comparison,
units were able to reach auction
depreciation over the same period
lots in January. Considering this, it
wouldn’t come as a surprise if the
market were to experience an
above-average spike in rental
volume over the next few weeks
as remarketers push to make up
for lost time. That being said, the
last year averaged a smaller 1.8%.
In February, NADA expects
used prices to rise by an
average of 2.1%, 1.4 points
more than the increase
recorded in February 2013.
The higher rate of depreciation
expected this year is due almost
entirely to an expanding supply of
units up to four years in age,
which NADA anticipates will
increase by 11% compared to
increase in rental volume should
2013. Despite the increase,
be countered by a rise in buyer
traffic, as weather also prevented
a number of dealers from making their way to the lanes.
February 2014 used vehicle price forecast
Historically, February marks the beginning of a two-tothree month period of definitive used vehicle price
growth as the receipt of federal tax refund checks help
stimulate an upsurge in consumer auto demand.
From 1995 to 2013, prices of units up to eight years in
age increased by an average of 1.8% on a monthly basis in
February – the most of any month – and over the past
three years prices have grown by an average of 2.2%
during the month.
Concerning this February, NADA expects prices will rise by
an average of 2.1%, which is a meaningful 1.4 points
more than the increase recorded last February when
higher payroll taxes impeded consumer spending.
however, late model supply will
still be relatively tight as it will remain some 7% below
2009 levels and 18% lower than 2007’s pre-recession
level. In addition, numerous signs point to dealers staying
highly focused on used car operations and consumer
appetite for certified pre-owned vehicles – which are
predominantly derived from this age group – continues to
grow. These factors will help counter the downward
pressure placed on late model prices by higher supply.
As far as older model volume is concerned, NADA
estimates that the number of units between five and
eight years old will fall by 9.6% in 2014 (again, a
byproduct of the new vehicle sales decline that occurred
from 2006 to 2009).
Supply aside, demand side factors will remain largely
positive in 2014. The current consensus forecast places
economic growth for the year at 2.8%, a rate substantially
better than last year’s estimated figure of 1.9%.
Price movement over the remainder of 2014 is expected
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© 2014 NADA Used Car Guide
4
Guidelines | February 2014
[ NEW & USED MARKET TRENDS continued ]
Unemployment will continue to fall, home prices will remain on the rise (although at a
rate lower than 2013’s 12% increase), and gasoline prices are expected to be flat to
down slightly.
Credit conditions will deteriorate slightly as the market transitions from a period of
extremely favorable conditions to one more in line with historic norms; however, the
lending environment will still be very strong compared to prior year standards.
And while lower new sales growth makes manufacturer incentive spending a bit more of
a wildcard this year, it’s likely that discount strategy will continue to revolve around
lease and finance subvention rather than customer cash; this, along with an anticipated
rise in new vehicle prices, will help shield used prices from the effect of higher total
incentive spending.
NADA Used Vehicle Price Index & CY14 Forecast
Down
0.5% - 1%
Units up to 8 years in age
140.0
of demand drivers, the diverging movement of
120.0
supply across the various vehicle age groups will be
the primary factor affecting used vehicle prices in
2014. NADA predicts prices for vehicles younger
than five years old will finish the year 2.5% lower
than they were in 2013, while five-to-eight year old
Used Vehicle Price Index (2010 = 100)
Taking into account the minimal changes expected
100.0
80.0
60.0
40.0
20.0
vehicle prices will remain essentially flat. Combined,
the average price of units up to eight years in age is
expected to slip by 0.5% to 1% in 2014.
0.0
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Forecast
Calendar Year
Source: NADA Used Car Guide
February Official Used Car Guide® value movement
Trade-in values in February’s edition of the Official Used Car Guide® were raised by an
average of just over 1% relative to January’s edition. Car values were increased by an
average of 1.2%, with mid-size car figures rising by a segment leading average of 2.2%
and subcompact and compact car values increasing by 1.4%. Value changes for
remaining car segments were minimal, rising or falling by an average of just 0.3%.
Truck values were raised by a smaller average of 0.8% for February’s edition, with
compact utility and large SUV increases of 1.7% and 1.1%, respectively, exceeding those
of other truck segments. Large van and mid-size utility (both mainstream and luxury)
values were increased by an average of 0.9%; figures for remaining truck segments were
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© 2014 NADA Used Car Guide
5
Guidelines | February 2014
[ NEW & USED MARKET TRENDS continued ]
left essentially unchanged from January’s levels.
New vehicle sales drop by 3%, SAAR dips to 15.16M units
Historic winter weather arrived in January to the delight of students across much of the
United States, but crippled businesses and curbed
auto sales as people were confined to their homes
New Vehicle Sales
New Vehicles Sales
January’s total sales figure was also the lowest of
any month in the past two years after the 910,000
units that were delivered in January 2012.
15%
1.2
10%
1.0
0.8
5%
0.6
0%
0.4
-5%
0.2
While the overall industry performance left much to
Percent Change
year-over-year decrease in the last 32 months.
20%
1.4
Sales Volume (millions)
million units and the 3% decline was only the second
YoY Change
1.6
for days on end. New sales were held to just 1.01
0.0
-10%
be desired and mainstream brands were down a
collective 4%, luxury brands enjoyed a solid 5.5%
Month
Source: Wardsauto.com
improvement. Also, roughly half of all mainstream
nameplates (10 out of 21) exhibited gains and
New Vehicle SAAR
SAAR
brands with declines were down more than 10%. On
16
increased sales and improved by 10%, collectively,
whereas Volvo, Cadillac and Porsche fell greater
than 14%.
The seasonally-adjusted annual rate (SAAR) slipped
YoY Change
14%
12%
10%
15
8%
14
6%
4%
13
2%
12
0%
11
-2%
to 15.16 million units from last year’s 15.23 million,
a decline of 0.5%. Adding to the disappointing result
Month
Source: Wardsauto.com
was the fact that January’s SAAR was the first yearover-year decline since August 2010, a span of 41 months.
Domestics gets snowed in, but Chrysler plows ahead
Hailing from Michigan, the Big Three’s performance took a hit after multiple storms
brought excessive amounts of snow and ice as well as below-freezing temperatures that
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© 2014 NADA Used Car Guide
6
Percent Change
the luxury side, nine out of 12 brands enjoyed
New Vehicle SAAR (millions)
together were up greater than 12%, while the
17
Guidelines | February 2014
[ NEW & USED MARKET TRENDS continued ]
discouraged folks from leaving the comforts of their homes. The Midwestern and
Southern regions represent hugely significant parts of their customer bases, but were hit
hard by poor weather, which led to a 5.5% drop in domestic sales, totaling fewer than
449,000 units.
Chrysler Group LLC successfully navigated the obstacles,
Mainstream Brand Performance (Units Sold)
however, and managed an impressive 7.9% increase in
sales. Although Dodge sales fell by 19%, the rest of the
company’s lineup was up as Jeep and Ram both
experienced healthy growth of 38% and 24%,
respectively. Jeep kept its momentum up and once again
led the group’s brands by increasing sales of every model
in its portfolio, including the Cherokee, whose sales were
up by 416% versus the discontinued Liberty, the model it
replaced in Jeep’s lineup.
As the largest automaker in the United States, the sales
performance of General Motors carries a significant
amount of weight in total industry figures and in January,
despite remaining as the sales leader, the automaker’s
171,000 deliveries was a 12% drop that greatly influenced
Buick
Chevrolet
Chrysler
Dodge
Fiat
Ford
GMC
Honda
Hyundai
Jeep
Kia
Mazda
Mini
Mitsubishi
Nissan
Ram
Scion
Smart
Subaru
Toyota
Volkswagen
double-digits. Sales for the brand dropped by 1.4% and
were propped up by a good showing from the Regal (up
44%) and strong sales of the Encore (up 570%), which did
much to help it stand out from the rest of the GM family.
Ford Motor Company had a difficult month as well with
overall sales down 7.4%, but Lincoln was a bright spot for
Dec-13
15,379
153,493
20,270
47,689
3,745
203,876
43,120
119,504
63,005
53,275
33,631
22,964
6,592
6,423
96,526
34,788
4,323
855
40,172
151,763
34,015
Jan-13
13,463
137,304
20,696
43,227
2,503
158,445
30,816
84,137
43,713
30,318
36,302
21,319
3,682
4,659
73,793
20,669
4,893
481
27,663
136,621
29,018
Change From
Month Ago
Year Ago
-14%
-1.4%
-22%
-13%
4%
2%
-27%
-19%
-14%
29%
-29%
-8.8%
-36%
-10%
-32%
-4.0%
-30%
0.7%
-21%
38%
10%
2.0%
-18%
-12%
-61%
-31%
-24%
4.5%
-16%
10%
-26%
24%
-7%
-18%
-39%
8.3%
-18%
19%
-18%
-8.7%
-31%
-19%
Jan-13
9,489
10,056
16,513
13,116
7,126
1,029
4,200
16,211
4,191
23,578
3,358
4,875
Change From
Month Ago
Year Ago
-31%
14%
-41%
0.4%
-51%
11%
-37%
-13%
-32%
26%
-13%
31%
-19%
11%
-49%
8.8%
-25%
43%
-33%
1.3%
-5%
-7.8%
-22%
-22%
Source: Wa rds Auto
Luxury Brand Performance (Units Sold)
the industry’s disappointing month. Of all GM brands,
only Buick was able to keep sales from falling in the
Jan-14
13,278
119,089
21,113
34,905
3,222
144,568
27,733
80,808
44,005
41,910
37,011
18,813
2,543
4,867
81,472
25,596
4,011
521
33,000
124,717
23,494
Acura
Audi
BMW
Cadillac
Infiniti
Jaguar
Land Rover
Lexus
Lincoln
Mercedes-Benz
Porsche
Volvo
Jan-14
10,823
10,101
18,253
11,386
8,998
1,347
4,674
17,637
5,973
23,892
3,096
3,792
Dec-13
15,751
17,013
37,389
18,165
13,232
1,544
5,764
34,757
7,984
35,835
3,246
4,888
Source: Wa rds Auto
the organization after accomplishing 43% growth compared to Ford brand’s 8.8%
decline. Sales were mixed among the Lincoln products, but the model that swung the
pendulum greatest was the MKZ, which was up a notable 368% and carried the brand
for the month. While only the Mustang and Flex posted gains for Ford, the models that
most underperformed were the Focus and Taurus, down 26% and 34%, respectively, for
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© 2014 NADA Used Car Guide
7
Guidelines | February 2014
[ NEW & USED MARKET TRENDS continued ]
eclipsing 90,000 units, a mere 1,161 less than American
a total decrease of over 6,000 units.
Imports fare better than domestics, see only
slight decline
Honda Motor Co. The success was enjoyed between both
brands as well, with Infiniti up 26% on sales just a hair
under 9,000 and Nissan up 10% with over 81,000
Sales for importers exhibited only a small decrease of
deliveries, which actually bested the Honda brand by 664
1.1% as Asia/Pacific deliveries were down only a marginal
units. Combined Q50 and G sales were up 37% over last
0.2%, with Japan’s sales down 0.6% and Korea’s up 1.3%.
year’s G deliveries while the QX60 was up 21% over the JX
While importers sold more cars than domestics a year
to propel Infiniti’s performance while Nissan enjoyed a
ago, the gap increased this January and grew from 89,000
good month from their Frontier and Juke models, which
units to 108,000. Out of 15 importers, only six were
were up 88% and 46%, respectively.
actually down, but those represented a 7.3% drop while
American Honda Motor Co. slowed
the rest were up 7.1%. Although
down and was down 2.1%, but
fewer imports saw diminished
maintained its position over Nissan
sales, they carried more weight
with the top two importers,
Toyota and Honda, being down
5.3%, collectively.
Subaru had another stellar month
after driving sales up over 19% as
Out of 15 importers, only six
were actually down, but
those represented a 7.3%
drop while the rest were up
7.1%.
by the slightest of margins thanks
to its Acura brand, which was up
14%. The Honda brand fell by 4%
almost exclusively because sales of
the Accord were down a
significant 14%, with the 3,291 dip
the snow and ice storms that
in sales for the model reflecting
troubled much of the competition
98.9% of the brand’s shortfall in
appears to have benefited the
deliveries. Acura was an
smaller Japanese automaker. As its product portfolio
interesting case being that, excluding the new RLX, all of
offers the brand’s highly-touted all-wheel drive system
the brand’s models were down except for the MDX (up
nearly across the board, with the lone exception being
65%) and RDX (up 10%) utility vehicles, which grew by a
the BRZ sports car, the circus of winter weather could
combined 38%. With the new 2015 TLX sedan coming to
possibly have played right into Subaru’s hands. The next
market later this year, it will be interesting to see how the
generation 2015 Legacy sedan, touting what is arguably
incoming model performs as a replacement for both the
its most polished and handsome design ever, was also
TL and TSX considering the brand’s current reliance on its
revealed at last week’s Chicago Auto Show and adds to
utility vehicles to sustain growth.
what has proven to be a remarkable run for the brand.
Toyota Motor Sales sputtered to a 7.2% decrease in sales
Just like last month, Nissan North America outperformed
after having fallen slightly last month as well. Lexus
Toyota and Honda with almost 12% growth in January by
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© 2014 NADA Used Car Guide
8
Guidelines | February 2014
[ NEW & USED MARKET TRENDS continued ]
performed nicely with 9% growth resulting from huge months from the IX sedan (up
120%) and the GX SUV (up 97%) while Scion was down 18% after its leader from a year
ago, the FR-S sports coupe, dropped by 36%. Volume brand Toyota had a disappointing
January with sales down 8.7% partly due to falling deliveries of the Camry (down 27%)
and Prius (down 26%), but the RAV4 (up 45%) and Highlander (up 21%) utility vehicles
did their best to make up the difference.
Though the increases in sales were marginal, German luxury automakers, BMW,
Mercedes-Benz and Audi, performed well to post improvements year-over-year. Mini
sales sank by 31%, but BMW did more than enough to balance things out by increasing
deliveries by 11% thanks primarily to the 5-Series and X3, which were up 26% and 35%,
respectively. Mercedes’ sales crept up by 1.3%, but it was mainly due to its new
Mercedes-Benz CLA sedan coming to the rescue with 2,433 addition sales as many of
the Mercedes models were down. Audi had a mixed month, up a minor 0.4%, but the
Q5 (up 18%) and Q7 (up 43%) were instrumental in keeping the brand headed in a
positive direction.
Incentive spending climbs for the 12th consecutive month
While incentives were down 6.3% relative to last month, they represented a 8.7% jump
over last January, per Autodata. Dealer, finance and lease subvention were all up, but
customer cash, which most negatively impacts used car value retention, fell by 6.2%. It
was the first time since last January that automakers pulled back their utilization of
customer cash, but on the other hand the increase in
the other types of incentives was significant as it was
Incentives
Average of Total
the first time all three were up since December
spending for the most part as the only brand to see
an increase was Buick (up 42%), which may help
12%
10%
$2,600
8%
6%
$2,500
4%
$2,400
2%
0%
$2,300
-2%
explain why it was able to outperform its GM peers.
$2,200
Lincoln was effective in putting its increased
$2,100
-4%
-6%
spending to good use as its 5.3% rise in incentives
paled in comparison to its 43% sales jump; however,
Month
Source: Autodata
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© 2014 NADA Used Car Guide
9
Percent Change
Similar to last month, General Motors cut back on its
14%
$2,700
Average Incentive Spending
2010.
YoY Change
$2,800
Guidelines | February 2014
[ NEW & USED MARKET TRENDS continued ]
Ford was unable to do the same with sales down 8.8% despite spending rising by 25%.
Notable for Chrysler Group LLC was how Jeep again posted a strong sales month
without being reliant on incentives, which were down 15%.
Toyota Motor Sales spent more in January, but the payoff was less than ideal as Toyota
brand sales fell with incentives up 4.3% while Lexus’ sales growth lagged behind its
spending, which was up 41%. Nissan and Infiniti ramped up incentives by 27% and 29%,
respectively, but the automaker reaped the rewards with a noteworthy performance
relative to its peers. Interestingly, Acura was the only brand among the Japanese Big
Three to cut back, yet it still managed to increase deliveries by 14%; Honda’s sales
decline outweighed its luxury sibling considering the mainstream brand’s 76% leap in
spending.
As has been the case in past months, Subaru was remarkable in scaling its incentives
back by 16% to fall to an industry-low $921 per unit. While the automaker may have
been the biggest beneficiary of January’s poor winter weather, it has successfully
proven for months that it can continue to push its deliveries upward even as its
incentives usage diminishes. Jaguar Land Rover had a nice January considering its sales
were up 15% while limiting its incentives with the Jaguar and Land Rover brands’
spending down 3.1% and 31%, respectively. Unfortunately for Volkswagen, despite
having the fourth-highest percent increase in spending (up 47%) and sixth-highest total
at $2,699 per unit among mainstream brands, the German make had the third-worst
sales month, down 19%.
Overall new vehicle days’ supply jumps by
New Vehicle Days' Supply
Days' Supply
13 days compared to last year
90
Inventory climbed to 89 days of supply in January, up
70
Acura stood out as its days’ supply decreased by 39
days versus prior year and went from having the
fourth-highest inventory last January to having the
Days of Supply
days higher than January 2013’s level of 76 days.
18
80
13
60
8
50
40
3
30
20
-2
10
0
-7
16th-highest. Lincoln, whose days’ supply is
consistently lofty, was notable in that it managed to
Month
Source: Wardsauto.com
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© 2014 NADA Used Car Guide
10
Day Change
26 days from December’s figure of 64 and also 13
YoY Change
Guidelines | February 2014
[ NEW & USED MARKET TRENDS continued ]
lower its inventory level from second-highest a year ago to seventh-highest this year.
Jaguar Land Rover was the only European automaker to significantly reduce its
inventory level, which fell by 14 days.
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11
Guidelines | February 2014
[ ECONOMIC TRENDS ]
According to the Commerce Department, the U.S. economy expanded at an annual rate
of 3.2% in the last three months of 2013 as consumers and businesses largely ignored a
government shutdown and fight over the debt ceiling. The pace of growth slowed from
4.1% in the previous quarter, but still means U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) – the
broadest measure of goods and services produced
in the last half of 2013, a pace unseen since 2003. A
weak first half of the year contributed to a lower
annual rate of growth down of 1.9% for 2013, down
from 2.8% in 2012.
The fourth-quarter growth benefitted from healthy
gains in consumer spending as 2013 drew to a close.
Personal consumption expenditures, which make up
more than two-thirds of GDP, rose by an annual rate
Real Gross Domestic Product
Percent change from preceding period (%, SAAR)
Percent Change from Preceding Period
across the economy – grew at an annual rate of 3.7%
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
-1.0
-2.0
-3.0
-4.0
-5.0
-6.0
-7.0
-8.0
-9.0
of 3.3%, the strongest pace in three years.
Economists speculated that a hike in payroll taxes at
Quarter
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
the start of the year, the 16-day government shutdown in October and the still
unresolved fight over the debt ceiling would prove a drag on consumer and business
spending. However, the latest figures suggest both consumers and businesses largely
shrugged off the battles in Washington.
For consumers, auto and household goods sales slowed but were offset by purchases of
services and nondurable goods including clothing and footwear. Meanwhile, businesses
boosted spending at an annualized 3.8% pace, with the bulk coming from investment in
equipment.
Hiring was surprisingly weak in January for a second straight month, likely renewing
concern that the U.S. economy might be slowing after a strong finish last year.
Employers added 113,000 jobs, according to the Labor Department, while the
unemployment rate dropped slightly to 6.6%. Job gains have averaged just 154,000 the
past three months, down from 201,000 in the preceding three months.
The sluggish job growth may reflect what investors and economists are concerned with:
the U.S. job market is weakening again, along with sectors like manufacturing and retail
sales in the United States and abroad. The weakness might also raise doubts about the
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12
Guidelines | February 2014
[ ECONOMIC TRENDS continued ]
Federal Reserve's plans to steadily reduce its economic stimulus this year.
Cold weather was likely a factor that held back hiring in December, though the impact
faded in January. Construction firms, which sometimes stop work in bad weather, added
48,000 jobs last month. On a more hopeful note, a survey of service sector companies,
including retailers, banks and restaurants, found that
they grew faster in January than in December.
Unemployment and Labor Participation Rates
Seasonally Adjusted
January’s report showed that some higher-paying
technical services, which include architects and
engineers, added 20,000. But health care
66.0
9.0
8.0
65.0
7.0
6.0
64.0
5.0
63.0
4.0
employment was mostly unchanged for a second
3.0
straight month, after adding 17,000 jobs a month
1.0
62.0
2.0
61.0
Jan-08
Mar-08
May-08
Jul-08
Sep-08
Nov-08
Jan-09
Mar-09
May-09
Jul-09
Sep-09
Nov-09
Jan-10
Mar-10
May-10
Jul-10
Sep-10
Nov-10
Jan-11
Mar-11
May-11
Jul-11
Sep-11
Nov-11
Jan-12
Mar-12
May-12
Jul-12
Sep-12
Nov-12
Jan-13
Mar-13
May-13
Jul-13
Sep-13
Nov-13
Jan-14
last year. Retailers cut 12,900 jobs, the most in 18
months, and government shed 29,000 jobs, mostly
67.0
10.0
Unemployment Rate (%)
21,000 new positions, while professional and
Unemployment Rate
Labor Participation Rate (%)
industries added jobs last month. Factories created
Participation Rate
11.0
Month
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
in education and the Postal Service.
Monthly Change in Nonfarm Payrolls
January employment data will be read closely by
Seasonally Adjusted
stimulus program. One more monthly jobs report
will be released before the Fed’s policy setting
committee meets again in March to consider the
issue.
Last month, the Federal Reserve announced its
intention to trim another $10 billion a month,
bringing the monthly investment down to $65 billion
700.0
600.0
500.0
400.0
300.0
200.0
100.0
0.0
-100.0
-200.0
-300.0
-400.0
-500.0
-600.0
-700.0
-800.0
-900.0
Jan-08
Mar-08
May-08
Jul-08
Sep-08
Nov-08
Jan-09
Mar-09
May-09
Jul-09
Sep-09
Nov-09
Jan-10
Mar-10
May-10
Jul-10
Sep-10
Nov-10
Jan-11
Mar-11
May-11
Jul-11
Sep-11
Nov-11
Jan-12
Mar-12
May-12
Jul-12
Sep-12
Nov-12
Jan-13
Mar-13
May-13
Jul-13
Sep-13
Nov-13
Jan-14
how quickly to scale back its quantitative easing
Prior-Month Change (thousands)
officials at the Federal Reserve, which is determining
Month
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
a month from its giant economic stimulus program.
The tapering will be incremental and last most of 2014, economic conditions
permitting. What the equity markets heard, however, was the strikingly different tone of
analysis from the Fed, which had finally become positive on the economic future.
Existing-home sales edged up in December, sales for all of 2013 were the highest since
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© 2014 NADA Used Car Guide
13
Guidelines | February 2014
[ ECONOMIC TRENDS continued ]
2006 and median prices maintained strong growth,
according to the National Association of Realtors.
S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Home Price Index
Three-month moving average published with a two-month lag.
Total existing-home sales increased 1% to a
190.0
180.0
seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.87 million in
in November, but are 0.6% below the 4.90 millionunit level in December 2012.
170.0
160.0
Index Level
December from a downwardly revised 4.82 million
150.0
140.0
130.0
120.0
In 2013, there were 5.09 million sales, which is 9.1%
110.0
higher than in 2012. It was the strongest
Jan-08
Mar-08
May-08
Jul-08
Sep-08
Nov-08
Jan-09
Mar-09
May-09
Jul-09
Sep-09
Nov-09
Jan-10
Mar-10
May-10
Jul-10
Sep-10
Nov-10
Jan-11
Mar-11
May-11
Jul-11
Sep-11
Nov-11
Jan-12
Mar-12
May-12
Jul-12
Sep-12
Nov-12
Jan-13
Mar-13
May-13
Jul-13
Sep-13
Nov-13
100.0
performance since 2006 when sales reached an
Month
unsustainably high 6.48 million at the close of the
Source: S&P Dow Jones
housing boom.
Total Housing Starts, Privately Owned
was $197,100, which is 11.5% above the 2012
median of $176,800 and was the strongest gain
since 2005 when it rose 12.4%. The median existinghome price for all housing types in December was
$198,000, up 9.9% from December 2012.
Seasonally Adjusted
1300.0
1100.0
Housing Starts (thousands)
The national median existing-home price for 2013
900.0
700.0
500.0
300.0
Total housing inventory at the end of December fell
100.0
Jan-08
Mar-08
May-08
Jul-08
Sep-08
Nov-08
Jan-09
Mar-09
May-09
Jul-09
Sep-09
Nov-09
Jan-10
Mar-10
May-10
Jul-10
Sep-10
Nov-10
Jan-11
Mar-11
May-11
Jul-11
Sep-11
Nov-11
Jan-12
Mar-12
May-12
Jul-12
Sep-12
Nov-12
Jan-13
Mar-13
May-13
Jul-13
Sep-13
Nov-13
9.3% to 1.86 million existing-homes available for
sale, which represents a 4.6-month supply at the
current sales pace, down from 5.1 months in
November. Unsold inventory is 1.6% above a year
ago, when there was a 4.5-month supply. According
Month
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Regular Grade Gasoline Prices (all formulations)
Average Price Per Gallon
$ YoY Change
$0.30
$3.80
$0.20
$3.70
$0.10
$3.60
$0.00
$3.50
($0.10)
$3.40
($0.20)
The U.S. average retail price of regular gasoline
$3.30
($0.30)
decreased less than one cent to $3.29 per gallon as
$3.20
($0.40)
$3.10
($0.50)
to Freddie Mac, the national average commitment
rate for a 30-year, conventional, fixed-rate
mortgage rose to 4.46% in December from 4.26% in
November; the rate was 3.35% in December 2012.
Average Price
$0.40
$3.90
of Feb. 3, 2014, 25 cents lower than last year at this
time. Prices increased 1 cent in the Midwest to
Source: U.S. Energy Information
Admi nistration
Month
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© 2014 NADA Used Car Guide
14
Price Change
$4.00
Guidelines | February 2014
[ ECONOMIC TRENDS continued ]
$3.23 per gallon, and rose less than a cent on the West Coast, remaining at $3.49 per
gallon. The East Coast price decreased 2 cents to $3.36 per gallon, and prices dropped 1
cent on the Gulf Coast and in the Rocky Mountains, to $3.08 per gallon and $3.13 per
gallon, respectively.
The national average diesel fuel price was up 5 cents
On-Highway Diesel Fuel Prices
Average Price Per Gallon
$ YoY Change
$0.15
this time. Prices increased in all regions of the nation
$4.05
$0.10
except the Rocky Mountains, where the price
$4.00
$0.05
$3.95
$0.00
$3.90
($0.05)
$3.85
($0.10)
$3.80
($0.15)
$3.75
($0.20)
$3.70
($0.25)
declined less than a penny to remain at $3.86 per
gallon. The East Coast price was $4.07 per gallon and
the Midwest price was $3.94 per gallon, both up 7
cents from last week. The West Coast price gained 2
Average Price
$0.20
$4.10
to $3.95 per gallon, 7 cents lower than last year at
cents to $3.99 per gallon, while the Gulf Coast price
increased less than 1 cent to $3.78 per gallon.
Source: U.S. Energy Information
Admi nistration
Month
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© 2014 NADA Used Car Guide
15
Price Change
$4.15
Guidelines | February 2014
[ NADA OFFICIAL USED CAR GUIDE® TRENDS ]
Monthly Change in NADA Used Car Guide Value
January 2014 v. February 2014
NADA Segment
2009MY
2010MY
2011MY
2012MY
2013MY*
Compact Car
Compact Utility
Large Pickup
Large SUV
Luxury Car
Luxury Utility
Mid-Size Car
Mid-Size Utility
Mid-Size Van
1.3%
1.5%
-0.1%
0.2%
-0.3%
0.1%
1.5%
1.1%
1.3%
1.4%
0.9%
-0.2%
0.5%
-0.5%
0.4%
1.5%
0.4%
0.3%
0.8%
1.0%
-0.3%
0.7%
-0.1%
0.4%
1.5%
0.8%
0.6%
0.9%
0.6%
-0.1%
0.8%
0.1%
0.4%
1.0%
0.7%
0.6%
0.6%
0.8%
0.0%
2.1%
-0.2%
0.5%
1.1%
0.7%
1.1%
*Value movement can be influenced by newly valued vehicles.
Annual Change in NADA Used Car Guide Value
February, 2013 v. 2014
NADA Segment
5YR
4YR
3YR
2YR
1YR
YoY Segment
Change
Compact Car
Compact Utility
Large Pickup
Large SUV
Luxury Car
Luxury Utility
Mid-Size Car
Mid-Size Utility
Mid-Size Van
-1.2%
0.6%
10.7%
3.1%
0.0%
7.5%
-2.8%
5.3%
4.5%
2.6%
1.9%
5.5%
0.5%
1.5%
3.4%
8.6%
4.3%
-0.7%
-1.8%
0.2%
10.8%
4.6%
-0.5%
-3.7%
-0.3%
1.8%
11.5%
1.0%
-0.7%
4.6%
3.1%
8.7%
0.6%
2.0%
0.4%
1.9%
0.2%
1.2%
5.9%
3.9%
-0.1%
1.0%
3.2%
2.0%
4.9%
0.4%
-0.7%
7.8%
3.4%
3.0%
0.1%
1.7%
3.4%
2.7%
*Calculations are based on vehicle age, i.e. values for 1 year old vehicles in CY2014 are compared against values for 1 year old vehicles in CY2013.
YTD Change in NADA Used Car Guide Value
January — February 2014
NADA Segment
Compact Car
2009MY
1.3%
2010MY
1.4%
2011MY
0.8%
2012MY
0.9%
2013MY* YTD Segment Change
0.6%
0.9%
Compact Utility
Large Pickup
Large SUV
1.5%
-0.1%
0.2%
0.9%
-0.2%
0.5%
1.0%
-0.3%
0.7%
0.6%
-0.1%
0.8%
0.8%
0.0%
2.1%
0.9%
-0.2%
1.0%
Luxury Car
-0.3%
-0.5%
-0.1%
0.1%
-0.2%
-0.2%
Luxury Utility
Mid-Size Car
Mid-Size Utility
Mid-Size Van
0.1%
1.5%
1.1%
1.3%
0.4%
1.5%
0.4%
0.3%
0.4%
1.5%
0.8%
0.6%
0.4%
1.0%
0.7%
0.6%
0.5%
1.1%
0.7%
1.1%
0.4%
1.3%
0.7%
0.8%
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© 2014 NADA Used Car Guide
16
Guidelines | February 2014
AT NADA USED CAR GUIDE
What’s New
Available on iPhone, iPad and Android devices, the recently enhanced NADA MarketValues is
the fastest, easiest and most cost-efficient way to make smart vehicle decisions on the go. This
native app allows you to get your NADA values anywhere, anytime without an Internet
connection. Subscriptions start at $50 per month and when you download NADA
MarketValues from Google Play or the Apple Store for $1.99, you’ll receive a FREE 30-day trial!
On the Road
Larry Dixon, senior automotive analyst, will be attending and speaking at the 2014 Conference of Automotive Remarketing (CAR) in
Las Vegas on March 5 – March 6, 2014. Larry will be speaking on a panel titled “Forecast of Residual Values for 2014-2015” on
Thursday, March 6 at 3:10 p.m. During the session, Larry and other industry experts will provide a forecast of residual values for the
wholesale resale market for 2014-2015, setting the stage for the year that attendees can use to prepare their business strategies.
NADA Used Car Guide is exhibiting at the Consumer Bankers Association’s CBA Live 2014 in Washington, DC on March 31 – April 2,
2014. Stop by booth #40 to see Dan Ruddy, Steve Stafford, Jonathan Banks and Larry Dixon. NADA President Peter Welch is
speaking at CBA Live’s Auto Finance Forum at 8:00 a.m. on Wednesday, April 2. Andy Koblenz, general counsel and executive vice
president of legal and regulatory affairs, will also be in attendance.
About NADA Used Car Guide
Since 1933, NADA Used Car Guide has earned its reputation as the leading provider of
vehicle valuation products, services and information to businesses throughout the United
States and worldwide. NADA’s editorial team collects and analyzes over one million
combined automotive and truck wholesale and retail transactions per month. Its
guidebooks, auction data, analysis and data solutions offer automotive/truck, finance,
insurance and government professionals the timely information and reliable solutions they
need to make better business decisions. Visit nada.com/b2b to learn more.
Financial Industry,
Accounting, Legal,
OEM Captive
Steve Stafford
800.248.6232 x7275
[email protected]
Credit Unions, Fleet,
Lease, Rental Industry,
Government
Doug Ott
800.248.6232 x4710
[email protected]
Automotive Dealers,
Auctions, Insurance
Jim Dodd
800.248.6232 x7115
[email protected]
Director, Sales
and Customer Service
Dan Ruddy
800.248.6232 x4707
[email protected]
Automotive OEMs
Stu Zalud
800.248.6232 x4636
[email protected]
PR Manager
Allyson Toolan
800.248.6232 x7165
[email protected]
Business Development
Manager
Jim Gibson
800.248.6232 x7136
[email protected]
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© 2014 NADA Used Car Guide
17
Guidelines | February 2014
NADA CONSULTING SERVICES
NADA’s market intelligence team leverages a database of nearly 200 million automotive transactions and more than
100 economic and automotive market-related series to describe the factors driving current trends to help industry
stakeholders make more informed decisions. Analyzing data at both wholesale and retail levels, the team continuously
provides content that is both useful and usable to the automotive industry, financial institutions, businesses and
consumers.
Complemented by NADA’s analytics team, which maintains and advances NADA’s internal forecasting models and
develops customized forecasting solutions for automotive clients, the market intelligence team is responsible for
publishing white papers, special reports and the Used Car & Truck Blog. Throughout every piece of content, the team
strives to go beyond what is happening in the automotive industry to confidently answer why it is happening and how it
will impact the market in the future.
Senior Director, Vehicle
Analysis & Analytics
Jonathan Banks
800.248.6232 x4709
[email protected]
Senior Manager,
Market Intelligence
Larry Dixon
800.248.6232 x4713
[email protected]
Automotive Analyst
David Paris
800.248.6232 x7044
[email protected]
Automotive Analyst
Joseph Choi
800.248.6232 x4706
[email protected]
ADDITIONAL RESOURCES
Guidelines
White Papers
Updated monthly with a robust data set
from various industry sources and
NADA’s own proprietary analytical tool,
Guidelines provides the insight needed
to make decisions in today’s market.
NADA’s white papers and special reports
aim to inform industry stakeholders on
current and expected used vehicle price
movement to better maximize today’s
opportunities and manage tomorrow’s risk.
NADA Perspective
Used Car & Truck Blog
Leveraging data from various industry
sources and NADA’s analysts, NADA
Perspective takes a deep dive into a
range of industry trends to determine
why they are happening and what to
expect in the future.
Written and managed by the Market
Intelligence team, the Used Car & Truck
Blog analyzes market data, lends insight
into industry trends and highlights
relevant events.
Connect with NADA
Read our Blog
Follow Us on Twitter
Find Us on Facebook
Watch Us on YouTube
nada.com/usedcar
@NADAUsedCarGde
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Youtube.com/NADAUsedCarGuide
Disclaimer: NADA Used Car Guide makes no representations about future performance or results based on the data and the contents available in this report (“Guidelines”). Guidelines is
provided for informational purposes only and is provided AS IS without warranty or guarantee of any kind. By accessing Guidelines via email or the NADA website, you agree not to reprint,
reproduce, or distribute Guidelines without the express written permission of NADA Used Car Guide.
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18