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Guidelines
December 2012
NADA Used Car Guide Industry Update
INSIDE:
NADA Official Used Car Guide® Update
NADA Official
Used Car Guide
Update
USED VEHICLE PRICES
ATD/NADA
Official
Commercial Truck
and demand would see little change in the trend of

Prior to Hurricane Sandy, it was expected that the al-
Market average drops by just 1.0%
helped by post-Sandy demand.
ready taunt relationship between used vehicle supply
Guide Update
depreciation outperforming historical levels, but the

destruction left by the storm has exacerbated this situation and there has been a predictable reaction in
used prices.
Fuel Price
Data
was decidedly better than the 2.1% decline expected
At just 1.0%, used vehicle depreciation in November

or $155 improvement in depreciation was in line with
NADA’s post-storm estimated lift of 0.5-to-1.5%.
AuctionNet®
Wholesale Market
Trends
NADA Guidebook
Value Trends
Used Vehicle Price Update: Mid-Size
Cars
Subaru Legacy & Toyota Camry tops in
retention.
for the month before Sandy’s arrival and the one-point
NADAguides.com
Consumer Site
Trends
New Vehicle Sales SAAR Hits 5 Year
High
Sales grow by 15%; YTD total surpasses
2011’s total figure.
New Vehicle Sales
Data
Economic Data
Used Depreciation Improves Considerably in November

While depreciation for all segments slowed, the
change is mid-size car and van price movement was
Commercial Truck Guide
Special study of International MaxxForce market performance.
especially pronounced. In the two months leading up to November, prices for these two segments dropped
by market-leading averages of 2.8% and 3.7%, respectively. However, in November prices only dropped by a
collective average of 1.0%.
Monthly AuctionNet Price Change - October v. November, 2012
For both segments, depreciation improved
Vehicles 1-to-8 years in age, mileage and mix adjusted.
0.0%
markedly for heavy rental fleet models
-0.5%
such as the Chrysler 200 and Dodge Grand
-1.0%
-1.0%
Caravan, and prices for import cars such
as the Toyota Camry, and in particular the
Nissan Altima, hardly moved.
-2.0%
-3.0%
segments, prices for compact utilities and
-3.5%
when taken as a collective, these improvements indicate that rental companies (by
-1.0%
-1.0%
-1.0%
-2.0%
-2.0%
-2.0%
-2.0%
Luxury Car Luxury Utility Mid-Size Car
Mid-Size
Utility
-2.5%
Matching the movement of the latter two
large pickups also slipped by a mild 1.0%;
-1.0%
-1.5%
Percent Change
At NADA Used
Car Guide
-2.9%
-4.0%
-4.5%
Market
Compact Car
Compact
Utility
Large Pickup
Large SUV
Mid-Size Van
Segment
Source: NADA
postponing fleet seasonal fleet reductions)
and dealers were active in trying to meet the additional demand stimulated by Sandy.
Excluding the large SUV segment where prices fell by 2.9%, prices for remaining segments dropped by a
more substantial 2.0%, but depreciation was either less steep or in line with what was recorded last year
(which was another solid November).
NADA Used Car Guide | 8400 Westpark Drive | McLean, VA 22102 | 800.544.6232 | www.nada.com/b2b
Guidelines | December 2012
Official Used Car Guide Update (continued…)
As far as the next two months are concerned, NADA expects that used vehicle depreciation in December essentially match what
was recorded last month and then turn slightly positive as is the seasonal norm in January. In addition, the prevailing environment of tight late model used vehicle supply along with the boost in demand caused by Sandy will continue to see depreciation
mildly outperform pre-storm expectations over this period.
Regarding the number of vehicles damaged by the storm, the National Insurance Crime Bureau (NICB), the nation’s leading notfor-profit organization dedicated to preventing, detecting and defeating insurance fraud and vehicle theft, estimates that more
than 230,000 insurance claims have been submitted for vehicle damage as a result of Sandy. While this figure includes repairable
damage, the NICB stated that many of these vehicles were flooded, meaning that they will ultimately be removed from the vehicle population through the salvage process.
NEW VEHICLE MARKET
Post-Sandy demand also helped push new vehicle sales up by 15% in November to 1.14M units. This brought the year-to-date
sales total to 13.1M units, which is an increase of 14% over last year’s sum of 11.5M units. Sales through November also exceeded last year’s full-year total of 12.7M and the month’s Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) of 15.5M is the highest figure recorded since November 2007.
For mainstream brands, Japanese sales growth was distinctly better than it was for their domestic counterparts.
Honda’s sales grew by 41% to set an all-time high for the month on respective increases of 82% and 88% for stalwarts Accord and
Civic and a 62% increase for the CR-V compact utility. Per Autodata, incentive spending for the brand dropped by 11.5% to reach
an average of $2,029 per unit.
Subaru reported a 60% increase in sales driven by a significant 4,500 unit improvement in deliveries of the Impreza, while sales at
Toyota rose by 16% on strong demand for the Camry, and in particular, the Corolla. Incentive spending for Subaru declined by
13% to an industry-low average of $948 per unit, while spending for Toyota increased by 7.3% to $1,692 per unit.
For its part, Nissan posted a 10% increase in sales for the month and also cut average incentive spending by 3.1% to $2,572 per
unit.
Sales for Chevrolet were once again flat as the brand sold a mere 40 fewer units than last year. Chevrolet also pulled back on incentives by 13.4% to an average of $2,520 per unit. Sales of the brand’s mid-size Malibu sedan dropped by a slight 0.4%, but
sales for the compact Cruze were up by 27%. Silverado pickup sales fell by 10.4%, due in part to the advanced age of the current
model and aggressive incentive spending by Dodge who spent an average of $760 more on its Ram pickup than Chevy spent on
the Silverado. This left Chevy with a bloated 138 day supply of Silverados, up by 29 days from October. GM has already taken
action in December by increasing their incentive spend on pickups to help reign in inventory.
Sales at Ford improved by 7% making November the first month out of the past three where sales have grown; incentives for the
brand dropped by 9% to an average of $2,598 per unit.
November sales were disappointing for most of Chrysler’s domestic brands, with only Chrysler brand reporting a minimal 1% gain
for the month, while sales for Dodge and Jeep were down by 21% and 3%, respectively.
NADA Used Car Guide | 8400 Westpark Drive | McLean, VA 22102 | 800.544.6232 | www.nada.com/b2b
2
©2012 NADA Used Car Guide
Guidelines | December 2012
Official Used Car Guide Update (continued…)
Incentive spending for Dodge and Chrysler ticked up by a collective average of 2.2% to $3,570, but spending at Jeep dropped by a
substantial 23% to reach an average of $2,172 per unit.
Sales for Volkswagen grew by 29% in November to extend the brand’s monthly growth streak to twenty-seven. Incentive spending fell by 4.4% to an average of $1,970 per unit.
On the luxury side of the market, Acura’s sales grew by 24% while sales for Lexus improved by 17%. Acura increased average incentive spending by 10% compared to last November, which placed spending per unit at $2,890. Lexus cut incentive spending by
an average of 19.4% per unit to $2,826.
Infiniti’s sales shot up by 41% last month, but the luxury brand spent an average of $5,000 per unit on incentives to help achieve
this result, making them the third highest spender in the luxury segment.
Despite reducing incentives by 9% to $4,180 per unit, sales at BMW skyrocketed by 45%, second only to Porsche’s 71% increase
in the luxury sector. Helping to spur growth was greater availability of, and strong demand for, the company’s 3 Series line of
cars.
Rival German brand Mercedes-Benz was able to continue a more than three year run of growth with a 13% gain in deliveries, and
similar to BMW, the brand also pulled back on incentive spending by 2% to $4,887 per unit. With a 20k unit lead over BMW
heading into the last month of the year, the luxury sales race is decidedly in Mercedes’ favor.
Per Autodata, incentive spending at a market level declined by 5.0% to $2,490 relative to last year. This reduction placed the
year-to-date average at $2,473, 1.3% less than last year’s figure of $2,506. Buick joined Dodge and Chrysler at the top of the
mainstream sector by spending an average of $3,905 per unit, while Hyundai spent just $1,125 to fall in with Subaru at the
bottom (although Hyundai did increase spending by 28% compared to last November).
With respective averages of $5,822 and $5,347 per unit, Jaguar and Lincoln were the heaviest spenders in the luxury sector, while
Land Rover and Porsche were most frugal with average spending per unit reaching $1,814 and $1,231, respectively.
Overall new vehicle inventory fell by three days to 70 from the prior month, which is five days back of the five year mean for the
month.
With a collective average of 105 days, three out of the top five mainstream brands with the highest supply were from GM (GMC,
Chevy, and Buick), while Hyundai, Kia, and Subaru each ended the month with inventory ranging between 37-to-39 days.
Cadillac topped the luxury sector with 119 days of supply and was followed by Acura and Lincoln at 107 and 98 days, respectively.
BMW, Porsche, and Audi inventory remained leanest with a range of 25-to-36 days.
NADA Used Car Guide | 8400 Westpark Drive | McLean, VA 22102 | 800.544.6232 | www.nada.com/b2b
3
©2012 NADA Used Car Guide
Guidelines | December 2012
Economic Update
The U.S. economy added 146,000 jobs in November and the unemployment rate fell to 7.7%, the lowest level seen since December
2008. Since July, the economy has added an average of 158,000 jobs a month which is a modest increase from the 146,000 jobs-permonth average recorded in the first six months of the year. Recent employment trends suggest that consistent economic improvement has employers slightly less hesitant to hire even though the year-end “fiscal cliff” is upon us.
Though crude oil continues to hold steady in a narrow range, it is expected that the prices will increase slightly around the first of
the year. After tumbling sharply in the early fall, West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the U.S. benchmark for crude, has been stuck between $85 and $90 per barrel for months now, but much to motorists’ relief, the fall has led to significant declines in pump prices.
Stronger global demand for oil early in 2013 will likely nudge prices back up, but oil markets will continue to be subject to any number of lurking worries: market jitters if negotiations to head off the “fiscal cliff” aren’t going well, a flare-up of violence in the Middle
East, or new developments in Europe’s long-running sovereign debt saga.
As for gasoline, prices will start to pick up come January. The national average price of regular unleaded, currently $3.37 per gallon,
could drift slightly lower closer to Christmas, but as 2013 gets going pump prices will reverse course, likely climbing above $3.50 by
midwinter. Truckers and other consumers of diesel fuel will see steeper rises. Stocks of distillate fuel including diesel are at low levels and supplies will get tighter as winter wears on. The average price of diesel, currently $4.00, could reach $4.25 before spring
arrives.
Look for the housing market to continue to pick up steam in 2013, despite a lull in the normally slower winter months. In fact, housing should add about 0.5% to GDP next year, a bit more than this year. With the Federal Reserve continuing to buy mortgagebacked securities and pledging to hold rates down for a prolonged period, there’s little reason to expect much of an increase in
mortgage rates through 2013. It is expected that 2013 could bring sales of about 4.7 million existing homes, up slightly from this
year’s 4.6-million pace. The pickup in new home sales will also accelerate, with about 430,000 new homes sold next year, compared
with 365,000 this year.
As inventory continues to dwindle and builder confidence rises, housing starts will climb, reaching 875,000 or so next year. At the
same time, the overhang of available housing will continue to fall promising new construction. Inventory of existing homes fell to
2.14 million in October equating to a 5.4 month supply of homes, the lowest level since February 2006.
A better economy is likely in 2013, but the gains won’t be clear until at least midsummer. Though a grand bargain between Congress
and the White House to avert the damaging effects of the “fiscal cliff” would alleviate the uncertainty that has dampened business
spending and hiring over the past year, any policy shifts included would need time to take effect.
GDP growth in the first quarter isn’t likely to exceed an annualized pace of just 1% or so. Ongoing financial woes in Europe and sluggish growth in China will temper export demand, while changes to take-home pay will weigh on consumer spending domestically.
Moreover, cuts in federal spending, higher tax rates -- at least for high-incomers -- and the expiration of tax breaks such as the payroll tax relief will shave about 1.5 percentage points off GDP growth next year.
The second half of 2013 will likely have more vigor, with GDP growth chugging along at close to a 3% pace. Consumer confidence,
already the highest in five years, will likely continue to improve, as home prices and employment rise. And with productivity gains
waning, businesses will be forced to step up hiring and/or business spending on equipment and technology.
NADA Used Car Guide | 8400 Westpark Drive | McLean, VA 22102 | 800.544.6232 | www.nada.com/b2b
4
©2012 NADA Used Car Guide
Guidelines | December 2012
Used Vehicle Price Update: Mid-Size Cars
In last month’s edition of Guidelines we took a look midsize sedan trends on the new side of the market, so this month we’re
providing a quick review of segment prices in the used market.
For this exercise we’ll be looking at how prices have changed for three year old sedans within the segment and as proxies for all
sedans, data has been isolated to only four cylinder versions of the highest volume trim level (e.g. Honda Accord Sedan 4D LX I4).
*Average prices are only for the dominant trim level for a given model based on new vehicles sales.
With these disclaimers in mind, wholesale price data shows that some interesting shifts have occurred in the segment. While it’s
no surprise to see models from Toyota, Honda, Nissan, and Subaru at the top of the list in terms of highest price, prices for models that have undergone major revisions – e.g. Chevy Malibu, Ford Fusion, Mazda Mazda6 – have improved significantly over the
years and are at, or very near to, the overall (sales weighted) segment average.
The raised awareness brought about by new vehicle redesigns are also playing a role in helping to lift used prices for previous
generation models.
Take Kia example.
Three years ago the average wholesale price of a 2007 Optima LX was $6,541, in the ‘11 calendar year the average wholesale
price of a ‘08 Optima LX jumped up to $7,904 which was good for almost a 21% improvement over the prior year. Fast forward to
2012 and the ‘09 Optima LX is pulling an average of $8,898 in the wholesale market which is good for a $2,357 improvement over
where it was just three short years ago.
NADA Used Car Guide | 8400 Westpark Drive | McLean, VA 22102 | 800.544.6232 | www.nada.com/b2b
5
©2012 NADA Used Car Guide
Guidelines | December 2012
Mid-Size Cars (continued…)
At a segment level, mid-size sedan prices rose acutely in CY ’11 due to a combination of higher gasoline prices, supply issues
stemming from the Japanese earthquake, and in certain cases new model redesigns (e.g. Accord and Malibu).
The top five models yielding the biggest gains proved to be the Chevrolet Malibu with a growth rate of 32%, Honda Accord 24%,
Kia Optima 21%, Ford Fusion 21%, and the Subaru Legacy grew by 17%.
For 2012, the rate of price growth has
Mid-Size Sedan Used Price Trends: 3-Year Old Units
slowed substantially compared to last year Average wholesale price change YoY in CYs 2011-2012
2011
but two models – the Kia Optima and MazChevy Malibu
32.2%
da Mazda6 – have still notched doubleChrysler Sebring/200
14.7%
digit over-the-year gains.
Dodge Avenger
NA
Ford
Fusion
20.5%
Conversely, the Honda Accord (-7%), NisHonda Accord
24.0%
san Altima (-3%), and Ford Fusion (-2%)
Hyundai Sonata
16.2%
have all experienced softer prices this year, Kia Optima
20.8%
Mazda
Mazda6
14.9%
but prices are still higher than their posiMitsubishi Galant
14.7%
tion three years ago.
Nissan Altima
5.2%
Subaru
Legacy
16.6%
By utilizing December ’12 NADA Official
Toyota Camry
7.4%
Used Car Guide Average Trade-In values
Segment Average * Sales Weighted
11.1%
along with a typically-equipped MSRP we
2012
2.0%
0.7%
6.2%
-1.5%
-6.8%
4.6%
12.6%
11.0%
3.4%
-3.3%
0.1%
2.0%
0.1%
are able to score all of the ’09 model year mid-size sedans in terms of current value retention.
The Toyota Camry and Subaru Legacy tie for first place at 49% apiece followed closely by the Honda Accord at 47%. Rounding out
the top six spots are the Ford Fusion with a retention rate of 46% and the Kia Optima at 44%. The Mazda6, Chevrolet Malibu,
Hyundai Sonata, and Dodge Avenger all scored in the low 40% range, followed by the Chrysler Sebring and Mitsubishi Galant
which dipped into the upper 30% range.
It’s important to note that the segment average was 44% and the range from highest to lowest was only separated by 13 percentage points which is much narrower than the spread seen three years ago. This trend is a result of the fierce competition being waged on the product-front in the new vehicle market and is indicative of the impact that each redesign and new model introduction can have on brand awareness and value.
Mid-Size Sedan Used Value Retention
December 2012 NADA Value Retention of 2009 MY Vehicles
Make
Model
Value Retention
Subaru
Legacy I AWD Special
49%
Toyota
Camry LE 2.4L I4
49%
Honda
Accord LX 2.4 I4
47%
Ford
Ford Fusion SE 2.3 I4
46%
Kia
Optima LX 2.4L I4
44%
Mazda
Mazda6 I Sport 2.5 I4
43%
Chevrolet
Malibu LS 2.4L I4
43%
Hyundai
Sonata GLS 2.4L I4
42%
Dodge
Avenger SE 2.4 I4
41%
Chrysler
Sebring LX 2.4L I4
39%
Mitsubishi
Galant ES 2.4 I4
36%
Segment Average
44%
NADA Used Car Guide | 8400 Westpark Drive | McLean, VA 22102 | 800.544.6232 | www.nada.com/b2b
6
©2012 NADA Used Car Guide
Guidelines | December 2012
ATD/NADA Official Commercial Truck Guide® Update
Year-to-Date Review
The final two months of 2012 sales data won’t be collected until the end of January, but December is a good time to take a look
at year-to-date performance of the Class 8 sleeper and daycab segments. We’ll also examine market performance of the controversial Navistar MaxxForce engine. Upcoming editions of GuideLines will include the full year-end review as well as analysis of
construction and medium duty segments.
Class 8 Retail Sleeper Market
The unusual period of steeply appreciating price combined with increasing mileage that began in late 2009 was already behind us
as 2012 started, having transitioned into a much flatter curve in the late 3 rd quarter of 2011. A mild to moderate pullback in the
4th quarter of 2011 was followed by a moderate rebound in February, 2012. Pricing then trended flat to mildly upwards into a July
peak, at which point we saw a very mild pullback and steady pricing for the following three months. See the “Average Retail Price
and Mileage” graph for detail.
Specifically, October’s data shows that the average sleeper tractor retailed that month for $49,366, had 551,773 miles, and was
77 months old. Compared to September, October’s results were $626 (or 1.3%) higher on price, 2214 (or 0.4%) higher on mileage, and 1 month older. Compared to last October, this month’s results were $2 higher on price, 27,021 (or 4.9%) higher on mileage, and 6 months older. Year-to-date, 2012 is leading 2011 by $2922 (or 6.0%), with mileage 30,309 (or 5.5%) higher.
Newer model years have been responsible for the relaxation of pricing. The 2009 model year ebbed and flowed through mid2011, ultimately depreciating 11.6% by year-end. 2009’s have continued steadily downwards in 2012, with a year-to-date decline
of 16.4%. 2010’s were too new to analyze fully in 2011, but from January to October of 2012 that model year has lost 16.2% of its
value. 2011 model year trucks look to be following a similar pattern. See the “Average Retail Price by Model Year” graph for detail.
It is logical that the newest model years will depreciate most heavily, as they enter the market in greater numbers and with
steadily higher mileage. However, the key piece of data is year-over-year pricing comparisons, which turned negative around
June of 2012. For example, a three-year-old truck sold today is worth less than its counterpart this time last year.
So how can the sleeper market overall be posting flat results with all this depreciation going on? The answer is that pre-DPF iron
is propping up the average. 2008 and older model year trucks have essentially not moved at all since January (with the exception
of the January to February drop for 2008’s). The lower price point of these older trucks is likely keeping them popular in a marketplace driven by extreme caution. In addition, there is likely some reluctance to choose a DPF-equipped truck over its non-DPF
counterpart if mileage is reasonably similar.
Our position at this point is to expect continued steady depreciation for 2009 and newer model years until the fiscal cliff is addressed. The DPF factor is likely less critical than the economic uncertainty. Going forward, DPF-equipped trucks will increasingly
be the only game in town if one wants a truck with under 600,000 miles. This simple fact will negate the DPF factor to an extent.
NADA Used Car Guide | 8400 Westpark Drive | McLean, VA 22102 | 800.544.6232 | www.nada.com/b2b
7
©2012 NADA Used Car Guide
Guidelines | December 2012
Commercial Truck Guide Update (continued…)
Class 8 Retail Daycab Market
Average Retail Price and Mileage: All Sleeper Tractors Under 1M Miles
Historically, daycabs have underperformed sleepers for the first
$55,000
580,000
2-3 years of age, and then reversed position to bring more mon-
560,000
$50,000
ey in the older model years. This performance is due to the de-
540,000
520,000
clining utility of a truck equipped with an integrated sleeper as
$45,000
500,000
mileage increases into the 700,000 mile range. Essentially, it is
480,000
$40,000
not desirable to have a high-mileage truck operating far from
460,000
home base. However, this trend has been shifting since late
440,000
$35,000
2009, as marketplace tolerance for higher mileage sleepers has
2 per. Mov. Avg. (Price)
Source: NADA
420,000
2 per. Mov. Avg. (Mileage)
$30,000
400,000
Jan-08
Mar
May
Jul
Sep
Nov
Jan-09
Mar
May
Jul
Sep
Nov
Jan-10
Mar
May
Jul
Sep
Nov
Jan-11
Mar
May
Jul
Sep
Nov
Jan-12
Mar
May
Jul
Sep
enabled that segment to retain more of its value.
As is evident in the “Daycabs vs. Sleepers” graph, sleepers and
daycabs performed quite closely on a mileage-adjusted basis
Average Retail Price by Model Year - All Sleeper Tractors Under 1M Miles
Adjusted for Mileage
throughout 2012. It’s not until we get back to the 2007 model
$100,000
year that we see a notable difference in selling prices for day-
$90,000
cabs vs. sleepers.
$80,000
2006
$70,000
On an absolute, non-mileage-adjusted basis, this spread is larg-
2007
$60,000
er in favor of daycabs, since trucks in this segment accumulate
2008
$50,000
2009
less mileage. For a given model year, a daycab will typically re-
$40,000
2010
ceive an add for low mileage, while a sleeper will typically not
$30,000
2011
$20,000
receive an add or deduct. However, once the factor of mileage
$10,000
Source: NADA
is removed, the spread is likely closer than it was before the
Oct
Sep
Jul
Aug
Jun
Apr
May
Feb
Mar
Dec
Jan-12
Oct
Nov
Sep
Jul
Aug
Jun
Apr
May
Feb
recovery began.
Mar
Jan-11
$0
Special Study: International ProStars with MaxxForce Engines
Daycab vs. Sleeper Retail Selling Price by Model Year
Adjusted for Mileage
To put it mildly, the MaxxForce engine is a hot topic in the used
$100,000
truck industry. An examination of the reasons for the controver-
$90,000
sy is beyond the scope of this document. What we can do is
$80,000
2 per. Mov. Avg. (2007 Daycab)
examine sales history through October and see if there are any
$70,000
identifiable trends.
2 per. Mov. Avg. (2007 Sleeper)
2 per. Mov. Avg. (2008 Daycab)
$60,000
2 per. Mov. Avg. (2008 Sleeper)
2 per. Mov. Avg. (2009 Daycab)
$50,000
We compared MaxxForce-equipped ProStars with their Cum-
2 per. Mov. Avg. (2009 Sleeper)
$40,000
mins-equipped siblings. Through October, there was not a clear,
2 per. Mov. Avg. (2010 Daycab)
2 per. Mov. Avg. (2010 Sleeper)
$30,000
identifiable difference in selling price between the two. This
$20,000
opacity is partly due to a lack of data – with a few exceptions,
$10,000
Source: NADA
$0
most months were in the single digits in terms of sales volume
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
for MaxxForce units – and also the possibility that any market
NADA Used Car Guide | 8400 Westpark Drive | McLean, VA 22102 | 800.544.6232 | www.nada.com/b2b
8
©2012 NADA Used Car Guide
Guidelines | December 2012
Commercial Truck Guide Update (continued…)
shift for this cohort has been very recent. Uncertainty may be
limiting the number of trucks entering the secondary market.
Average Wholesale Price and Mileage: All Sleeper Tractors Under 1M Miles
$45,000
In view of this limited data, monthly trending is not possible, so
750000
$40,000
700000
we have aggregated all of 2012’s sales into the associated
$35,000
charts. On the retail side, the 2009 model year would appear to
$30,000
provide a basis of comparison, with an apparent $3858 differ-
$25,000
600000
ence between engine types. However, note the difference in
$20,000
550000
650000
$15,000
mileage and horsepower. Adjusting for these two factors (using
$10,000
NADA guide adjustments) narrows that gap to $1300, which is
2 per. Mov. Avg. (Price)
500000
2 per. Mov. Avg. (Mileage)
450000
$5,000
$0
400000
Jan-08
Mar
May
Jul
Sep
Nov
Jan-09
Mar
May
Jul
Sep
Nov
Jan-10
Mar
May
Jul
Sep
Nov
Jan-11
Mar
May
Jul
Sep
Nov
Jan-12
Mar
May
Jul
Sep
within the typical dealer-to-dealer variation in selling price for an
Source: NADA
identical truck. So that data point is inconclusive. On the wholesale side, the 2010 model year would appear to provide a comparison. However, that group of 15 MaxxForce trucks is a sin-
International ProStars by Engine
gle package of trucks sold by a single dealership early in the
Retail
Model Year Engine
2008 ISX
2009 ISX
Incoming November sales data does contain additional MaxxMaxxForce
Force units that may prove meaningful for analysis. We will
2010 ISX
2011 MaxxForce
year. As such, this sample is not statistically valid.
update this study next month.
Avg. Price Avg. Mileage Avg. HP Count
$52,284
498473
448
16
$66,387
399643
442
97
$62,529
467293
415
19
$60,235
433837
435
17
$81,488
187713
440
5
Wholesale
Conclusion
Model Year
2008
At the time this document was published, there had not yet
2009
2010
been a compromise reached on the fiscal cliff. Essentially, any
Engine
ISX
ISX
ISX
Maxxforce
2011 Maxxforce
2012 Maxxforce
of the likely compromise scenarios should result in minor
strengthening in pricing of newer trucks, since businesses will
Avg. Price Avg. Mileage Avg. HP Count
$31,862
593835
436
109
$44,313
504362
440
12
$77,500
287061
435
11
$58,000
480123
410
15
$84,900
212855
433
30
$87,000
220000
435
12
be able to focus on the relatively positive economic fundamentals rather than fear of another recession. If the tax and spending
milestones are simply extended with no resolution, current market conditions will remain in place. The worst-case scenario – terminal gridlock, no compromise, no temporary extensions of any kind – will result in another recession and acceleration of depreciation in the used truck market.
We should know which of these futures our leaders have chosen for us by the time the next edition of GuideLines is published. In
the meantime, be sure to check our Commercial Vehicle Blog for regular updates on our data at www.nada.com/b2b.
NADA Used Car Guide | 8400 Westpark Drive | McLean, VA 22102 | 800.544.6232 | www.nada.com/b2b
9
©2012 NADA Used Car Guide
Guidelines | December 2012
New Vehicle Data
New Vehicle Sales
New Vehicle Days' Supply
1.6
30%
New Vehicle Sales
80
1.4
YoY Change
70
25%
1.2
15
60
15%
0.6
10%
0.4
10
50
40
5
30
0
20
5%
0.2
0.0
-5
10
0%
0
-10
Month
Month
Source: Wardsauto.com
Source: Wardsauto.com
Incentives
New SAAR
16
$2,800
25%
SAAR
15%
Average of Total
YoY Change
YoY Change
15%
13
10%
12
5%
11
0%
10%
$2,600
5%
$2,500
0%
$2,400
-5%
$2,300
$2,200
-10%
$2,100
-15%
Percent Change
14
Average Incentive Spending
20%
Percent Change
New Vehicle SAAR (millions)
$2,700
15
Month
Month
Source: Autodata
Source: Wardsauto.com
Mainstream Brand Performance (Units Sold)
Buick
Chevrolet
Chrysler
Dodge
Fiat
Ford
GMC
Honda
Hyundai
Jeep
Kia
Mazda
Mini
Mitsubishi
Nissan
Scion
Smart
Subaru
Suzuki
Toyota
Volkswagen
Day Change
0.8
Days of Supply
20%
1.0
Percent Change
Sales Volume (millions)
20
Days' Supply
YoY Change
Nov-12
13,289
128,867
18,766
40,075
3,603
171,360
29,832
104,334
53,487
35,047
41,055
21,691
5,248
3,574
84,300
5,606
704
28,206
1,925
133,370
36,728
Oct-12
13,384
135,305
22,222
40,613
3,720
162,793
33,570
94,808
50,271
34,023
42,452
18,622
5,888
3,981
70,928
5,887
998
26,119
2,039
129,505
34,311
Luxury Brand Performance (Units Sold)
Nov-11
10,880
128,907
18,577
30,766
1,618
160,136
29,470
74,016
49,610
36,246
37,007
18,432
4,750
3,739
76,754
3,553
414
17,657
1,822
114,949
28,412
Change From
Month Ago
Year Ago
-1%
22%
-5%
0%
-16%
1%
-1%
30%
-3%
123%
5%
7%
-11%
1%
10%
41%
6%
8%
3%
-3%
-3%
11%
16%
18%
-11%
10%
-10%
-4%
19%
10%
-5%
58%
-29%
70%
8%
60%
-6%
6%
3%
16%
7%
29%
Acura
Audi
BMW
Cadillac
Infiniti
Jaguar
Land Rover
Lexus
Lincoln
Mercedes-Benz
Porsche
Volvo
Nov-12
12,246
12,067
31,213
14,517
11,897
713
3,687
22,719
5,732
30,315
3,865
6,141
Oct-12
12,163
11,708
26,451
13,505
8,757
699
3,129
19,850
5,154
23,978
3,211
4,200
Nov-11
9,909
9,700
21,523
11,145
8,428
915
3,820
19,458
6,305
26,795
2,255
4,844
Change From
Month Ago
Year Ago
1%
24%
3%
24%
18%
45%
7%
30%
36%
41%
2%
-22%
18%
-3%
14%
17%
11%
-9%
26%
13%
20%
71%
46%
27%
Source: IHS/Global Insight
NADA Used Car Guide | 8400 Westpark Drive | McLean, VA 22102 | 800.544.6232 | www.nada.com/b2b
10
©2012 NADA Used Car Guide
Guidelines | December 2012
Economic Data
Consumer Confidence Index
Employment
Total Nonfarm Payrolls & Unemployment Rate, SA
600
Nonfarm Payroll Change
12
120
10
100
Unemployment Rate
200
-200
6
-400
4
80
Index Value
8
0
Unemployment Rate (%)
Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (Monthly, Ths.)
400
60
40
-600
2
20
0
0
-800
-1000
Month
Source: BLS
Month
Source: BLS
The Conference Board
Retail Sales
Industrial Production
Retail & Food Service Sales, SA
Purchasing Manager's & Inventories Indices
15%
65
Retail/Food Service Sales YoY
Retail/Food Service Sales MoM
Purchasing Manager's Index
Inventories Index
60
Retail and Food Service Sales (% Change)
10%
55
Diffusion index, SA
5%
0%
-5%
50
45
40
35
30
-10%
25
-15%
20
Month
Month
Source: BLS
The
Board
U.S. Conference
Census Bureau
Source: Institute for Supply Management
Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Housing
All Items
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index (20-Metro Composite) & Housing Starts (Total Private)
250
6%
2,500
Home Price Index
All Items YoY
Housing Starts
All Items MoM
2,000
150
1,500
100
1,000
50
4%
All Items (% Change)
200
Housing Starts (Ths. SAAR)
Home Price Index (Aggregate Jan. 2000=100)
5%
3%
2%
1%
0%
-1%
500
-2%
0
-3%
0
Month
Month
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Source: S&P Case- Shiller, U.S. Census Bureau
NADA Used Car Guide | 8400 Westpark Drive | McLean, VA 22102 | 800.544.6232 | www.nada.com/b2b
11
©2012 NADA Used Car Guide
Guidelines | December 2012
Fuel Price Data
Regular Grade Gasoline Prices (all formulations)
$4.00
$0.60
Average Price Per Gallon
$3.90
$ YoY Change
$0.50
$3.80
$0.40
$0.30
$3.60
$3.50
$0.20
$3.40
$0.10
$3.30
Price Change
Average Price
$3.70
$0.00
$3.20
($0.10)
$3.10
$3.00
($0.20)
$2.90
($0.30)
Month
Source: EIA
On-Highway Diesel Fuel Prices
$4.20
$1.00
$ YoY Change
$4.10
$0.80
$4.00
$0.60
$3.90
$0.40
$3.80
$0.20
$3.70
$0.00
$3.60
($0.20)
$3.50
($0.40)
Price Change
Average Price
Average Price Per Gallon
Month
Source: EIA
U.S Regular Gasoline Prices (dollars per gallon, all formulations)
US
East Coast
Midwest
Gulf Coast
Rocky Mountain
West Coast
Nov-12
$3.45
$3.50
$3.35
$3.20
$3.54
$3.76
Oct-12
$3.75
$3.74
$3.62
$3.48
$3.72
$4.23
Nov-11
$3.38
$3.39
$3.29
$3.18
$3.42
$3.72
U.S On-Highway Diesel Fuel Prices (dollars per gallon)
Change From
Month Ago
Year Ago
($0.29)
$0.07
($0.24)
$0.11
($0.28)
$0.05
($0.28)
$0.02
($0.18)
$0.12
($0.47)
$0.04
US
East Coast
Midwest
Gulf Coast
Rocky Mountain
West Coast
Nov-12
$4.00
$4.05
$3.95
$3.89
$4.09
$4.12
Oct-12
$4.09
$4.09
$4.06
$3.99
$4.22
$4.29
Nov-11
$3.96
$3.94
$3.95
$3.86
$4.08
$4.15
Change From
Month Ago
Year Ago
($0.09)
$0.04
($0.04)
$0.11
($0.11)
($0.00)
($0.10)
$0.03
($0.13)
$0.02
($0.17)
($0.03)
Source: EIA
NADA Used Car Guide | 8400 Westpark Drive | McLean, VA 22102 | 800.544.6232 | www.nada.com/b2b
12
©2012 NADA Used Car Guide
Guidelines | December 2012
NADAguides.com Consumer Site Trends — New Activity
About NADAguides.com
NADAguides.com is the most comprehensive vehicle information website on the internet today, offering a broad range of
information and services to help educate consumers in the market to buy, sell, trade, or simply shop for a vehicle.
NADAguides is an alliance partner of NADA Services Corporation.
The figures contained below are based on consumer activity at www.nadaguides.com and are calculated by measuring the
number of unique lookups for a given period of time.
YoY Change in Consumer Activity: NEW Make
Scion
Land Rover
BMW
Jaguar
Audi
Chrysler
Jeep
Volkswagen
Suzuki
Ford
Honda
Porsche
Mazda
Acura
Hyundai
Nissan
Mercedes-Benz
Chevrolet
MINI
Mitsubishi
Volvo
GMC
Toyota
Lexus
Infiniti
Subaru
Kia
Buick
Lincoln
Cadillac
-3%
Smart
-15%
Saab -26%
-50%
Source: NADAguides.com
New: Top 15 Researched Models — November 2012
November
233%
2012 Rank
MoM Change
MY
MAKE
MODEL
1
1
2012
Ford
F-150
60%
2
2
2013
Ford
F-150
58%
3
0
2012
Chevrolet
Silverado 1500
4
1
2012
Toyota
Camry
5
1
2012
Ford
Focus
6
1
2012
Ram Truck
1500
7
1
2012
Nissan
Altima
8
1
2012
Chevrolet
Impala
9
3
2012
Chevrolet
Captiva Sport Fleet
10
0
2012
Honda
Accord Sdn
11
7
2012
GMC
Sierra 1500
12
2
2012
Toyota
Tacoma
29%
13
0
2012
Chevrolet
Cruze
27%
14
6
2012
Ford
Fusion
15
2
2012
Chevrolet
Malibu
66%
63%
47%
44%
42%
41%
35%
33%
31%
31%
24%
20%
20%
New: Top 15 Researched Models — November 2011
16%
11%
November
11%
2011 Rank
MY
MAKE
MODEL
11%
1
2011
Dodge
Durango
10%
2
2011
Ford
F-150
3
2011
Chevrolet
Silverado 1500
4
2011
Toyota
Camry
5
2011
Hyundai
Sonata
6
2012
Ford
F-150
7
2011
Jeep
Grand Cherokee
8
2011
Chevrolet
Malibu
9
2011
Toyota
Tacoma
10
2011
Chevrolet
Impala
11
2011
GMC
Sierra 1500
12
2011
Honda
CR-V
13
2011
Ford
Super Duty F-250
14
2011
Chevrolet
Silverado 2500HD
15
2011
Ford
Mustang
9%
8%
6%
4%
1%
0%
0%
50%
100%
150%
Percent Change
200%
250%
NADA Used Car Guide | 8400 Westpark Drive | McLean, VA 22102 | 800.544.6232 | www.nada.com/b2b
13
©2012 NADA Used Car Guide
Guidelines | December 2012
NADAguides.com Consumer Site Trends — Used Activity
YoY Change in Consumer Activity: USED Make
Saab
Audi
Jaguar
BMW
Mercedes-Benz
Suzuki
Porsche
Land Rover
Hummer
Volvo
MINI
Acura
Volkswagen
GMC
Lexus
Buick
Mercury
Subaru
Honda
Lincoln
Jeep
Ford
Pontiac
Toyota
Chevrolet
Infiniti
Saturn
Cadillac
Nissan
Dodge
Mazda
Chrysler
Hyundai
Scion
Mitsubishi
Kia
20%
20%
18%
16%
14%
14%
14%
13%
12%
11%
10%
10%
9%
9%
8%
8%
7%
7%
7%
7%
6%
5%
5%
5%
4%
4%
4%
4%
3%
3%
1%
1%
1%
1%
0%
0%
0%
5%
Source: NADAguides.com
10%
15%
Percent Change
Used: Top 15 Researched Models — November 2012
20%
25%
Used: Top 15 Researched Models — November 2011
November
November
2012 Rank
MoM Change
1
2
MAKE
MODEL
0
Ford
F-150
0
Chevrolet
Silverado 1500
3
0
Nissan
4
1
5
2011 Rank
MAKE
MODEL
1
Ford
F-150
2
Chevrolet
Silverado 1500
Altima
3
Nissan
Altima
Honda
Accord Sdn
4
Toyota
Camry
1
Toyota
Camry
5
Chevrolet
Impala
6
(2)
Chevrolet
Impala
6
Honda
Accord Sdn
7
0
Dodge
Ram 1500
7
Dodge
Ram 1500
8
0
Ford
Mustang
8
Ford
Super Duty F-250
9
0
Toyota
Corolla
9
Ford
Mustang
10
2
BMW
3 Series
10
Toyota
Corolla
11
(1)
Chevrolet
Silverado 2500HD
11
Ford
Escape
12
(1)
Ford
Escape
12
Chevrolet
Tahoe
13
0
Chevrolet
Tahoe
13
Chevrolet
Silverado 2500HD
14
0
Chevrolet
Malibu
14
Ford
Focus
15
1
Toyota
Tacoma
15
BMW
3 Series
NADA Used Car Guide | 8400 Westpark Drive | McLean, VA 22102 | 800.544.6232 | www.nada.com/b2b
14
©2012 NADA Used Car Guide
Guidelines | December 2012
AuctionNet® Wholesale Market Trends
About AuctionNet®
AuctionNet® is an industry-unique wholesale transaction database, available exclusively from NADA Used Car Guide, in joint partnership with the National Auto Auction Association (NAAA). Over 100 million records strong and updated weekly, it captures
sales from all Manheim and ADESA, as well as participating ABC, ServNet and large independent auctions, representing over 80%
of nationwide auction activity.
Monthly AuctionNet Price Change - October v. November, 2012
Vehicles 1-to-8 years in age, mileage and mix adjusted.
0.0%
-0.5%
-1.0%
-1.0%
-1.0%
-1.0%
-1.0%
-1.0%
Percent Change
-1.5%
-2.0%
-2.0%
-2.0%
-2.0%
-2.0%
Luxury Car Luxury Utility Mid-Size Car
Mid-Size
Utility
-2.5%
-3.0%
-2.9%
-3.5%
-4.0%
-4.5%
Market
Compact Car
Compact
Utility
Large Pickup
Large SUV
Mid-Size Van
Segment
Source: NADA
Annual AuctionNet Price Change - November '11 v. November '12
Vehicles 1-to-8 years in age, mileage and mix adjusted.
10.0%
7.9%
8.0%
7.2%
6.0%
Percent Change
4.0%
2.0%
1.0%
1.4%
0.6%
0.0%
-0.7%
-2.0%
-0.2%
-1.4%
-2.3%
-4.0%
-6.0%
-5.6%
-8.0%
Market
Compact Car
Compact
Utility
Large Pickup
Large SUV
Luxury Car Luxury Utility Mid-Size Car
Mid-Size
Utility
Mid-Size Van
Segment
Source: NADA
WardsAuto.com
NADA Used Car Guide | 8400 Westpark Drive | McLean, VA 22102 | 800.544.6232 | www.nada.com/b2b
15
©2012 NADA Used Car Guide
Guidelines | December 2012
NADA Guidebook Value Trends — Month-Over-Month
Monthly Change in Average NADA Official Used Car Guide Value: NADA Segment
November 2012 v. December 2012
NADA Segment
2007MY
2008MY
2009MY
2010MY
2011MY*
Compact Car
-0.4%
-0.5%
0.1%
-0.5%
-0.3%
Compact Utility
-1.3%
-1.6%
-1.4%
-1.0%
-1.2%
Large Pickup
-0.7%
-1.6%
-1.4%
-1.2%
-0.8%
Large SUV
-1.8%
-2.3%
-0.9%
-0.8%
-1.7%
Luxury Car
-2.1%
-1.8%
-1.8%
-1.7%
-1.7%
Luxury Utility
-2.0%
-1.8%
-1.1%
-1.4%
-1.9%
Mid-Size Car
-0.5%
-0.7%
-1.2%
-0.4%
-1.1%
Mid-Size Utility
-3.3%
-2.8%
-2.7%
-2.4%
-2.3%
Mid-Size Van
-2.0%
-1.9%
-1.9%
-1.8%
-2.0%
*Value movement can be influenced by newly valued vehicles. See the last page of "Guidelines" for data key.
Monthly Change in Average ATD/NADA CTG Value: NADA Segment
November 2012 v. December 2012
NADA Segment
2006MY
2007MY
2008MY
2009MY
2010MY*
Commercial Van
-1.0%
0.0%
-2.3%
-4.7%
0.0%
Extended Hood
0.0%
0.0%
-0.7%
-0.1%
0.0%
Highway Aerodynamic
0.0%
-0.5%
-4.0%
-2.0%
-1.5%
Highway Traditional
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
Local/Delivery Daycab
0.0%
0.0%
-4.3%
-3.1%
-0.3%
Medium Duty Cabover
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
Medium Duty Conventional
-0.2%
-0.2%
-1.4%
-1.3%
-3.6%
Vocational/Construction
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
N/A
*Value movement can be influenced by newly valued vehicles. See the last page of "Guidelines" for data key.
NADA Used Car Guide | 8400 Westpark Drive | McLean, VA 22102 | 800.544.6232 | www.nada.com/b2b
16
©2012 NADA Used Car Guide
Guidelines | December 2012
NADA Guidebook Value Trends — Year-Over-Year
Annual Change in NADA Official Used Car Guide Value: December, 2011 v. 2012
YoY Segment
NADA Segment
5YR
4YR
3YR
2YR
1YR
Change
Compact Car
-1.2%
2.5%
0.7%
5.2%
1.1%
1.5%
Compact Utility
-1.2%
-1.7%
-2.6%
-0.7%
-1.1%
-2.4%
Large Pickup
11.9%
7.0%
6.0%
3.6%
8.1%
5.9%
Large SUV
28.9%
12.3%
5.3%
3.8%
5.5%
7.6%
Luxury Car
4.3%
2.6%
-0.9%
0.7%
-1.4%
2.2%
Luxury Utility
0.3%
-0.5%
2.9%
-0.7%
-7.3%
-4.4%
Mid-Size Car
1.0%
-3.8%
-5.2%
8.2%
4.5%
3.8%
Mid-Size Utility
3.4%
2.6%
1.4%
1.4%
-0.5%
-0.6%
Mid-Size Van
-5.1%
10.0%
-1.5%
-5.6%
2.2%
4.1%
*Calculations are based on vehicle age, i.e. values for 1 year old vehicles in CY2011 are compared against values for 1 year old vehicles in CY2010.
Annual Change in ATD/NADA Commercial Truck Guide Value: December, 2011 v. 2012
YoY Segment
NADA Segment
5YR
4YR
3YR
2YR
Change
Commercial Van
18.6%
13.0%
-23.7%
19.3%
3.0%
Extended Hood
16.8%
25.7%
3.3%
-4.2%
5.2%
Highway Aerodynamic
6.3%
29.0%
5.2%
-1.3%
5.6%
Highway Traditional
19.4%
24.9%
4.0%
2.6%
10.5%
Local/Delivery Daycab
20.3%
29.9%
5.4%
2.2%
6.6%
Medium Duty Cabover
8.0%
13.1%
-4.5%
N/A
1.5%
Medium Duty Conventional
16.5%
19.1%
10.6%
-7.2%
6.2%
Vocational/Construction
20.0%
38.8%
7.4%
N/A
13.6%
*Calculations are based on vehicle age, i.e. values for 1 year old vehicles in CY2010 are compared against values for 1 year old
vehicles in CY2009.
NADA Used Car Guide | 8400 Westpark Drive | McLean, VA 22102 | 800.544.6232 | www.nada.com/b2b
17
©2012 NADA Used Car Guide
Guidelines | December 2012
NADA Guidebook Value Trends — Year-To-Date
YTD Change in NADA Official Used Car Guide Value: January — Dec 2012
YTD Segment
NADA Segment
2010MY 2011MY*
Change
2007MY
2008MY
2009MY
Compact Car
-12.7%
-12.9%
-11.0%
-10.0%
-10.5%
-11.1%
Compact Utility
-17.8%
-17.6%
-15.3%
-12.7%
-11.8%
-14.1%
Large Pickup
-8.7%
-9.0%
-6.2%
-4.9%
-4.6%
-6.6%
Large SUV
-9.4%
-10.0%
-6.5%
-5.3%
-6.8%
-7.2%
Luxury Car
-16.9%
-16.1%
-17.3%
-16.8%
-15.1%
-15.6%
Luxury Utility
-19.8%
-17.9%
-18.5%
-17.1%
-15.2%
-17.2%
Mid-Size Car
-16.2%
-15.1%
-13.3%
-7.1%
-12.0%
-10.6%
Mid-Size Utility
-19.0%
-16.7%
-13.8%
-12.4%
-11.5%
-14.3%
Mid-Size Van
-22.7%
-19.2%
-18.8%
-17.6%
-15.8%
-18.3%
YTD Change in ATD/NADA Commercial Truck Guide Value: January — Dec 2012
YTD Segment
NADA Segment
2009MY 2010MY*
Change
2006MY
2007MY
2008MY
Commercial Van
-11.3%
-9.9%
-19.1%
-7.5%
6.3%
-8.4%
Extended Hood
0.1%
1.7%
-7.5%
-14.9%
-11.2%
-4.9%
Highway Aerodynamic
-5.0%
-4.7%
-14.6%
-15.0%
-13.9%
-10.1%
Highway Traditional
0.9%
3.5%
-6.1%
-11.3%
-12.2%
-3.6%
Local/Delivery Daycab
0.4%
0.4%
-10.1%
-11.5%
-11.3%
-7.5%
Medium Duty Cabover
-16.0%
-13.6%
-3.6%
-6.0%
N/A
-7.7%
Medium Duty Conventional
-1.4%
-10.4%
-7.0%
-10.8%
-5.3%
-5.3%
Vocational/Construction
0.0%
0.0%
-4.3%
-4.2%
N/A
1.8%
NADA Used Car Guide | 8400 Westpark Drive | McLean, VA 22102 | 800.544.6232 | www.nada.com/b2b
18
©2012 NADA Used Car Guide
Guidelines | December 2012
At NADA Used Car Guide
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©2012 NADA Used Car Guide