Revised fee arrangements Fund update and commentary

EEA Life Settlements Fund PCC Limited (the "Fund")
6th May 2015
Revised fee arrangements
With effect from 1 May 2015, EEA Fund Management (Guernsey) Limited (the "Manager") has
agreed to become responsible for the fees of the Administrator (approximately $875,000 in 2014).
The Manager will pay such fees out of its own management fee which will mean a reduction in
the level of fees paid by the Fund from that date. The Manager has also agreed to waive its
entitlement to any further Performance Fee. As part of these new arrangements, the notice
period that either the Manager or the Fund must give in order to terminate the Management
Agreement has been extended from six months to twelve months. These changes have been
reflected in the Fund's Information Memorandum and Supplements, which have been published
on the Manager's website www.eeafmg.gg/eea-life-settlements-fund
DT Comment : This effectively reduces the Management Charges from 1.5% of NAV to 1.4% of
NAV. Combined with the new valuation methodology announced in February, this results in a
reduction of Management and Administration charges from around $13m pa to $9.2m pa in a full
year, saving $4m pa.
Other updates to the May Information Memorandum and Supplements include :
a) EEA Holdings Ltd (in the UK) has been renamed Melquart Ltd wef 6th Feb 2015.
The sole shareholder of Melquart Ltd is Simon Shaw with his wife as co-Director. Melquart Holdings
Ltd owns 100% of EEA Group Ltd in the UK which (among other things) owns 100% of Distribution
Holdings Guernsey Ltd which in turn owns 100% of EEA Fund Management (Guernsey) Ltd – the
Manager of the EEA Life Settlements Fund.
b) UK HMRC has confirmed that the delayed 2011 and 2012 Accounts constituted two minor
breaches of the UK Reporting Fund regime.
If the Fund were to commit four minor breaches of the reporting fund regime in any ten year period,
the fourth of such breaches would be regarded as a serious breach for the purposes of the regime.
This could result in withdrawal of reporting fund status. With the implication that any gains arising to
Shareholders resident in the United Kingdom on a sale, redemption or other disposal of Shares in the
Cell (including a deemed disposal on death) would be taxed as offshore income rather than capital
gains.
Fund update and commentary
The Fund currently consists of a diverse portfolio of 401 life insurance policies with an average
policy size of US$2,777,034 covering 83 illnesses and 79 insurance companies, which have a
total net death benefit of $1.11 billion. The current net asset value ("NAV") of the Fund is $602.5
million, including total cash and net receivables from maturities of $128 million.
DT Comment : Our position is still that the new NAV / Valuation methodology introduced retrospectively
from December 2014 is inappropriate. We also have a $5m discrepancy in the cash balance at the end
of March 2015, which might be linked to the separate item / comment below.
We would note that 85% of the portfolio, based upon weighted Net Death Benefit, is represented by
insureds aged 80 or over.
DT Comment : Our bigger concern is that more than $985m (87%) of the outstanding $1113m
NDB is covered by 191 (46%) policies and 127 (39%) lives insured for more than $2m per life
and that these policies are still not maturing as predicted. EEA repeatedly avoids giving any
explanation as to why these polices aren’t maturing as expected and what they are going to do
about it. The premiums bill for these policies will exceed EEA’s current estimates and are likely
to increase even faster as the insureds reach 90, 95 or 100 years of age. There were 150 of the
remaining 401 policies in this age group at 31st March 2015, representing $427m (38%) of
remaining NDB.
The undiscounted net death benefit revenues, calculated on the basis of the current life
expectancy ("LE") reports and used by the Fund's independent valuation agent, Maple Life
Analytics LLC, in the calculation of the current NAV of the portfolio of life insurance policies,
anticipates 34% of the remaining death benefit maturing over the next two years, 53% over three
years and 72% over five years.
DT Comment : We have no idea what basis Maple Life is using for the above forecasts. The
EEA / ViaSource Fact Sheet for 31st March 2015 gives 47%, 55% and 77% respectively. None
of these forecasts based on the Original or Revised (2013) LE estimates have any credibility
because policies are still failing to mature in accordance with the estimates, and it is clear that
the LE estimates are flawed, making all predictions and valuations meaningless.
In the last quarter to 31 March 2015, one policy expired with a death benefit of $500k. Policies
like this are written down over several years to reduce the impact on the Fund's NAV of their
expiring rather than maturing. No further policies are due to expire in 2015.
DT Comment : The challenge is to identify these policies and abandon them before they
expire so that premium payments can be saved over the last few years of the policy term.
Writing down the NAV is not a solution to the problem of protecting the net cash value
available to investors over time. This is another consequence of flawed LE estimates and
poor portfolio management.
Over the year to 31 March 2015, there were 73 maturities, contributing a total death benefit of
$122 million. This compares with the undiscounted net death benefit revenues forecast on the
basis of the latest LE estimates at 31 March 2014, that maturities for the 12 months ending 31
March 2015 would contribute a total net death benefit of approximately $201 m, assuming
maturities happened at LE.
DT Comment : There were actually 75 Maturities (57 lives) within this 12-month period (there
were two late postings in April) totaling $123m NDB. The prediction using the more accurate 2 x
LE model introduced in 2013 was $237m, making the actual shortfall even greater. EEA have
now abandoned this 2 x LE model rather than fix the problem of badly estimated LEs. Even
EEA’s flawed forecast of $201m (including $80m in 1Q2015) is significantly more than has been
achieved over the past four years ($123-139m pa, average = $133m pa) or just over $10m per
month.
For much of the previous 12 months, this forecast and the maturity record were closely aligned, but
the quarter ending 31 March 2015, when $80m of death benefits were forecast, again on the
assumption that maturities happened at LE, saw only 11 maturities and the generation of just
$11.3m. For the same three month period, the Fund's independent valuation agent, Maple Life
Analytics LLC, forecast $45.6m of net death benefit revenues.
DT Comment : So EEA / ViaSource expected $80m in 1Q2015, and Maple Life expected
$45.6m whereas the historical maturities for this quarter have been around $11-52m (average
= $30m). This confirms that the higher face value policies are failing to mature in accordance
with their LE estimates, and these now account for more than $855m (87%) of the remaining
NDB.
With any life settlements fund, asset value is preserved by the ongoing payment of premiums,
which is dependent on cash being available. As a consequence, no distribution was made during the
quarter.
DT Comment : $4.1m was distributed to Continuing shareholders who requested their 5%
redemption option, even though there was insufficient cash available to meet the two-year
premium reserve. This was taken from the cash balances of the relevant Continuing Cells during
February 2015, as shown by the January and February Fact sheets.
Cash levels (excluding approximately $5.4m attributable solely to the Continuing Cells) currently
stand at $128m and premium payments for the 12-month period to 31 March 2015 were
$68m. The Fund is therefore currently in a strong position to meet premium payments and the
Fund's Board is committed to ensuring it exercises caution so that it remains that way. The
Fund's Board will review the cash position again as at 30 June 2015 and give a further update
towards the end of July.
DT Comment : We don’t understand the comment about $5.4m attributable “solely to
Continuing Cells” and will seek clarification from EEA. As we understand it, the whole $134m
cash balance (at the end of March 2015) is held within the 28 cells on a pro-rata basis (of
which $59m is held within Continuing Cells) and there is no separate cash account for the
premium reserve or redemption payments. EEA is claiming that the cash balance is $128m
(of which $56.4m is held within the continuing Cells) plus the $5.4m attributable solely to
Continuing Cells.