Thursday, 14 - May, 2015 USDCAD Market Update • The Canadian dollar reached its strongest level in 4 months against its U.S counterpart yesterday, following disappointing U.S retail sales data (flat vs. est .02% ) sent the USD-index to near three month lows. • • USDCAD OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE Range (Pips) NY 1.1945 1.1991 1.1925 1.1954 66 TOKYO 1.1954 1.1962 1.192 1.1952 42 LONDON 1.1932 1.1991 1.192 1.195 71 MTD% chg 3M% chg 6M% chg YTD% chg -0.70% -3.21% 6.23% 3.20% U.S crude oil stockpiles fell for a 2nd straight week. (-2.2M barrels vs. est. build of 990K) 1.23 The Loonie traded as low as C$1.1931 to the greenback, or 83.21 US. cents. 1.2 1.22 1.21 1.19 1.18 20-Apr 25-Apr 30-Apr 1180 • 1160 1140 Ytd 1120 5y Avg. • 1100 1080 • 1060 1040 • 1020 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Jul Aug Sep • • • • 10-May Oct Nov Crude invetories fell by 2.2Mb in the last week compared with expectatations for an increase of 386k barrels. Stocks at the Cushing, OK, delivery hub fell by 990K barrels. Refinery crude runs fell by 1.1 million barrels vs. est. build of 429k Distillate stockpiles fell by 2.5M barrels vs. est. build of 829k USDCAD Analysis The USD is weak the focus on a softened U.S outlook following Wednesday's retail sales disappointment. the DXY has fallen to levels not seen since mid January. The RSI has fallen to 30 indicating oversold conditions. The BoC Review will feature an an article on 'Inflation dynamicss in the Post-Crisis Period,' potentially relevant given the the 2016 renewal of the Inflation-Control Agreement USDCAD short-term technicals are bearish-neutral with both RSI and MACD indicating further risk to the downside the RSI has moved from 30 to 34 failing to confirm fresh lows. 9 and 21-day MA and DMI confirm sell signals. Support levels of 1.1937, and 1.1905 have been established recently with resistance at 1.1995 and 1.2013 WTI and CAD r² (30d) level topped .82 today with 2yIRD backing off to .71 therefore we are watching WTI for any signs of weakness to indicate a bottom 05-May EIA Weeky Data and Global Energy News US Crude Inventories vs. 5year Average 1200 • 1.24 USDCAD YTD 1.3000 1.2900 1.2800 1.2700 1.2600 1.2500 1.2400 1.2300 1.2200 1.2100 1.2000 1.1900 1.1800 1.1700 1.1600 1.1500 1.1400 07/01/2015 06/02/2015 08/03/2015 07/04/2015 07/05/2015 RSI- Cutler MACD 12, 26, 9
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