Thursday, 14 - May, 2015
USDCAD Market Update
• The Canadian dollar reached its
strongest level in 4 months against
its U.S counterpart yesterday,
following disappointing U.S retail
sales data (flat vs. est .02% ) sent the
USD-index to near three month
lows.
•
•
USDCAD
OPEN
HIGH
LOW
CLOSE
Range (Pips)
NY
1.1945
1.1991
1.1925
1.1954
66
TOKYO
1.1954
1.1962
1.192
1.1952
42
LONDON
1.1932
1.1991
1.192
1.195
71
MTD% chg
3M% chg
6M% chg
YTD% chg
-0.70%
-3.21%
6.23%
3.20%
U.S crude oil stockpiles fell for a 2nd
straight week. (-2.2M barrels vs. est.
build of 990K)
1.23
The Loonie traded as low as
C$1.1931 to the greenback, or 83.21
US. cents.
1.2
1.22
1.21
1.19
1.18
20-Apr
25-Apr
30-Apr
1180
•
1160
1140
Ytd
1120
5y Avg.
•
1100
1080
•
1060
1040
•
1020
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Jul
Aug
Sep
•
•
•
•
10-May
Oct
Nov
Crude invetories fell by 2.2Mb in the last
week compared with expectatations for an
increase of 386k barrels.
Stocks at the Cushing, OK, delivery hub fell
by 990K barrels.
Refinery crude runs fell by 1.1 million barrels
vs. est. build of 429k
Distillate stockpiles fell by 2.5M barrels vs.
est. build of 829k
USDCAD Analysis
The USD is weak the focus on a softened U.S
outlook following Wednesday's retail sales
disappointment. the DXY has fallen to levels not
seen since mid January. The RSI has fallen to 30
indicating oversold conditions.
The BoC Review will feature an an article on
'Inflation dynamicss in the Post-Crisis Period,'
potentially relevant given the the 2016 renewal of
the Inflation-Control Agreement
USDCAD short-term technicals are bearish-neutral
with both RSI and MACD indicating further risk to
the downside the RSI has moved from 30 to 34
failing to confirm fresh lows. 9 and 21-day MA and
DMI confirm sell signals.
Support levels of 1.1937, and 1.1905 have been
established recently with resistance at 1.1995 and
1.2013
WTI and CAD r² (30d) level topped .82 today with
2yIRD backing off to .71 therefore we are watching
WTI for any signs of weakness to indicate a bottom
05-May
EIA Weeky Data and Global Energy News
US Crude Inventories vs. 5year Average
1200
•
1.24
USDCAD YTD
1.3000
1.2900
1.2800
1.2700
1.2600
1.2500
1.2400
1.2300
1.2200
1.2100
1.2000
1.1900
1.1800
1.1700
1.1600
1.1500
1.1400
07/01/2015
06/02/2015
08/03/2015
07/04/2015
07/05/2015
RSI- Cutler
MACD 12, 26, 9