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ENERGY
Monthly Report
June 2015
HIGHLIGHTS OF MAY
Oil held gains as U.S. drillers further reduced the number of
In China, President Xi Jinping said strategic oil reserves are
active rigs to the fewest since September 2010. The U.S.
significant to the country and called for an increase in
rig count declined by 11 to 668, extending a slide that
stockpiles, the official Xinhua News Agency reported.
started in December, according to Baker Hughes Inc. Crude
Russia’s Energy Minister Alexander Novak met with his
inventories in the U.S., the world’s biggest oil user, fell to
Venezuelan counterpart in Moscow as he sought to discuss
487 million barrels in the week ended May 1, EIA data
the global market with OPEC officials before the group’s
showed on May 6. That’s the first drop since January.
June 5 meeting.
OPEC, which supplies about 40 percent of the world’s oil,
U.S. crude inventories fell by 2.8 million barrels to 479.4
resisted calls to reduce production at a November gathering
million, and production rose to 9.57 million barrels a day
and kept its quota at 30 million barrels a day. The 12-
through May 22, according to the Energy Information
member group has pumped above that level the past 11
Administration. The European benchmark Brent crude oil
months, a Bloomberg survey of companies and analysts
ended the month at a premium of $5.26 per barrel to WTI
showed. Supplies from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the United
crude oil, compared with $7.15 at the end of last month.
Arab Emirates remain near the highest level in three
decades, the IEA said in its monthly report. While the U.S.
shale oil industry appears to have “blinked” in the face of
OPEC’s resistance to cutting supply, producers including
Russia are coping better than expected with low prices, the
IEA said in its monthly report.
U.S. crude-oil production dropped 1.2 percent in the week
ended May 15 to 9.26 million barrels a day, the lowest level
since Feb. 6, according to the Energy Information
Administration. Crude stockpiles fell by 2.67 million barrels
in the seven days ended May 15. Supplies have declined
since reaching 490.9 million barrels on April 24, the highest
level since 1930. The number of oil drilling rigs in U.S.
decreased to 659 in week ended May 22, the lowest level
since August 2010, according to Baker Hughes Inc. Drillers
have idled more than half of the rigs they had active in
October.
Iraq’s prime minister pledged a swift takeover of the city of
Ramadi from Islamic State militants, while in Saudi Arabia,
King Salman vowed to punish those responsible for a
suicide attack on Shiite worshipers.
Source: Bloomberg
INDUSTRY AND MARKET NEWS
OPEC braces for more oil as Iran, Iraq declare plans to expand
Iraq will increase exports this month as fighting with Islamic State militants spares its biggest-producing regions,
the country’s oil minister said. His counterpart from Iran urged the group to make room for more output when
global sanctions recede. Iraqi government forces have been successful in preventing the spread of Islamic State
insurgency to the country’s south, which accounts for most of the nation’s output.
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries has been pumping above its production quota for months,
determined to subdue supply from higher-cost producers. The strategy is working, with a record drop in the
number of active U.S. rigs and billions cut from global producers’ spending plans. The Organization of Petroleum
Exporting Countries pumped 31.58 million barrels a day in May, the most since 2012, as its members compete
for market share.
Source: Bloomberg
India’s oil addiction to vault nation into top 3 global guzzlers
India’s growing middle class will soon make it the third-biggest oil consumer, reshaping the global energy map as
China uses less and the U.S. produces more. India will overtake Japan this quarter, as per International Energy
Agency. The country’s galloping demand growth may eventually surpass China’s, a shift that was unforeseen
just a few years ago. The International Monetary Fund predicts the economy will swell by 7.5 percent this year as
Prime Minister Narendra Modi makes business reforms, beating Chinese growth for the first time in a quartercentury. The country’s unbridled thirst for oil has helped bolster crude prices as they start to recover from a sixyear low. Oil has rebounded to about $60 a barrel from $45 a barrel in January.
Source: Bloomberg
INVENTORY REVIEW
U.S. crude oil stockpiles declined by 2.75% in the week ended May 29, 2015 when compared to week ended April
24, 2015.
Source: Bloomberg
Source: Bloomberg
Source: EIA, U.S.
U.S. Crude oil stocks
(million barrels)
05/1/15
487
05/08/15
484.8
05/15/15
482.2
05/22/15
479.4
Source: EIA, U.S.
U.S. Crude Oil Production and Imports (Million Barrels per Day)
Week Ending
05/15/15
05/22/15
05/29/15
Crude Oil Production
9.262
9.566
9.586
Crude Oil Imports, Excluding SPR
7.199
6.696
7.373
Source: EIA, U.S.
05/29/15
477.4
CFTC REPORT
The U.S. CFTC’s Commitments of Traders (COT) weekly status.
(Figures in mn. Lots)
28-04-2015
05-05-2015
12-05-2015
19-05-2015
26-05-2015
Total OI
1.71
1.75
1.73
1.62
1.61
Long Non - Commercial
0.52
0.53
0.51
0.50
0.50
Short - Non-Commercial
0.20
0.20
0.19
0.16
0.15
Long Commercial
0.57
0.59
0.60
0.54
0.53
Short - Commercial
0.89
0.92
0.92
0.89
0.88
Source: Bloomberg
Source: Bloomberg
The charts below depict the commercial and non-commercial positions at NYMEX for Light Sweet Crude Oil
(WTI):
Source: Bloomberg
Source: Bloomberg
SPOT MARKET OVERVIEW
Spot price of WTI Cushing crude oil averaged US$59.27 per barrel in May 2015, higher than US$54.44 per
barrel in April 2015. It opened the month at US$59.15 per barrel and closed the month at US$60.30 per barrel,
with a high of the month at US$60.93 per barrel.
Source: WTRG
INDIAN CRUDE OIL BASKET
The Indian crude oil basket averaged daily US$63.64 per barrel in May 2015 with a high of US$66.54 per barrel
during the month.
Source: Bloomberg
FUTURES TRADING OVERVIEW
MCX crude oil contract aggregate average daily volume for May 2015 was 16.67 mn. barrels and aggregate
average daily open interest for the month was 1.48 mn. barrels.
Source: Bloomberg
NYMEX Light Sweet WTI Crude oil futures aggregate average daily volume was approximately 0.67 mn lots in
May 2015. Highest volume for the month was 0.90 mn lots. Aggregate average daily open interest for the month
was approximately 1.68 mn lots.
Source: Bloomberg
Source: Bloomberg
Source: Bloomberg
Source: Bloomberg
Source: Bloomberg
DATA RELEASES IN JUNE 2015
Weekly crude oil inventory data every Wednesday and weekly U.S. jobless claims every Thursday
German ZEW Economic Sentiment on June 16
U.S. FOMC Statement and Federal Funds Rate on June 17
China HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI and German and French Flash Manufacturing PMI and German Ifo
Business Climate on June 23
U.S. Core Durable Goods Orders m/m on June 23
U.S. Final GDP q/q on June 24
U.S. CB Consumer Confidence on June 30
Source: Forex Factory
Multi Commodity Exchange of India Limited
Exchange Square, Suren Road, Andheri (East), Mumbai 400 093, India
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