AVAILABILITY OF FISHMEAL AND FISH OIL AND IMPLICATIONS FOR AQUACULTURE C.J. SHEPHERD MASS BALANCE OF MARINE INGREDIENTS PRODUCTION 2010 IFFO estimates Whole Fish 13,886 Total 18,515 888 By-Products 4,629 4,166 Water Steam 13,461 INDUSTRIAL GRADE FORAGE Landings tonnes Gulf menhaden (Brevoortia patronus) 479,000 Atlantic menhaden (Brevoortia tyrannus) 212,000 Sand-eel (Ammodytes spp.) 486,500 Total 1,175,000 tonnes of which 100% converted FOOD GRADE FORAGE Peruvian anchovy (Engraulis ringens) 8,468,000 Japanese anchovy (Engraulis japonicus) 1,567,000 South African anchovy (Engraulis encrasicolus) 228,000 Sprat (Sprattus sprattus) 262,000 Blue whiting (Micromesistius poutassou) 678,500 Capelin (Mallotus villosus) 958,500 Total 12,162,000 tonnes of which an estimated 90% was converted PRIME FOOD FISH Atlantic herring (Clupea harengus) 656,500 European sardine (Sardina pilchardus) 639,000 Chilean jack mackerel (Trachurus murphyii) Japanese jack mackerel (Trachurus japonicas) Chub mackerel (Scomber japonicus) LANDED VOLUMES (GREATER THAN 200K TONNES) OF FISH SPECIES USED FOR REDUCTION (AVERAGE OF 20012006) CLASSIFIED BY THEIR DEGREE OF ACCEPTABILITY AS HUMAN FOOD 1,870,000 320,000 1,403,500 Californian sardine (Sardina sagax caerulea) 556,000 South African sardine (Sardina sagax) 263,000 Total 5,708,000 tonnes (average landings 2001 – 2006) of which an unknown percentage was converted after Wijkström, 2011 RAW MATERIAL FOR GLOBAL MARINE INGREDIENTS PRODUCTION 2000-2010 Raw material sources for fishmeal 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% By-products 50% Whole wild fish 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2000 2005 2010 IFFO estimates GLOBAL FISHMEAL AND FISH OIL PRODUCTION 1964-2010 (TONNES X 103) 8000 7000 tonnes ,000 6000 5000 4000 Fishmeal Fish Oil 3000 El Niňo 2000 1000 0 IFFO data FISHMEAL AND FISH OIL PRODUCTION SHOWS SLOW DECLINE BUT CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY PRODUCTION IN SOUTH AMERICA. PRODUCTION IN EUROPE HAS CONTINUED TO DECREASE IFFO data CHANGING USES OF FISHMEAL 1960 TO 2010 ESTIMATED USE OF FISHMEAL BY SECTOR IN 2010 The estimated use of fishmeal by sector 2010 Pigs 20% Others 2% Chickens 5% Aquaculture 73% IFFO estimates TREND IN WEEKLY PRICE RATIO OF FISHMEAL TO SOYABEAN MEAL 1993 TO MARCH 2012 IFFO data CHANGING USE OF FISH OIL FROM HYDROGENATED FAT TO AQUACULTURE AND DIRECT HUMAN CONSUMPTION Changing uses of fish oil 2010 1990 1960 2% 5% 20% 20% 16% 80% 24% 59% 3% 71% Clockwise from the top Hardened Edible Aquafeed Industrial Refined Edible IFFO estimates FISH OIL USAGE (TONNES X 103) 2005-2011* 1,200 1,000 800 Other uses 600 Crude Oil human consumption Aquaculture 400 200 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 IFFO & GOED data * 2011 is an estimate SOURCES OF REFINED OIL 2011 4.0% 0.4% 5.8% 0.1% 3.0% 0.0% 6.8% 79.4% Anchovy/Sardine Cod Tuna Note over 95% comes from fish Salmon Algae Krill Yeast Plant Source GOED SOURCES OF REFINED OIL 2011 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011E VOLUMES OF SALMON FEED ARE INCREASING ,000 tonnes 3000 2500 2000 North America 1500 UK Chile 1000 Norway 500 0 CHANGING COMPOSITION OF SALMON FEEDS OVER TIME WITH SUBSTITUTION OF FISHMEAL & FISH OIL 100% 90% Fish oil 80% 70% 60% Alternative proteins and starch 50% 40% 30% 20% Fish meal 10% 0% 1995 Fish meal 2000 Alternative proteins and starch 2005 Fish oil 2010 Vegetable oils N. Alsted pers. comm. INCREASING AQUACULTURE DOES NOT USE MORE MARINE INGREDIENTS Global Aquaculture Production with fishmeal and fish oil usage 2000-2010 tonnes millions 35.0 3.50 30.0 3.00 25.0 2.50 20.0 2.00 Fed Aquaculture Fish meal in aquaculture 15.0 1.50 10.0 1.00 5.0 0.50 0.0 0.00 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Fish Oil in aquaculture Data FAO & IFFO CHANGING EPA/DHA CONTENT IN NORWEGIAN SALMON 2002-2012 2002 % of total oil in salmon feed 2012 35% 35% 100% 33% 5% 1.5% % fish oil in total diet 35% 12.6% % EPA+DHA of dietary oil (if fish oil contains 20% EPA+DHA) 20% 7.2% % fish oil* in added dietary oil % dietary fish oil contribution via fish oil within fishmeal EPA+DHA in 140g portion of salmon fillet containing 15% oil ** 4200 mg 1512 mg No. of days of EFSA requirement met by 1 portion (250 mg/day) 16.8 6.0 No. of days of UK/SCAN requirement met by 1 portion (450 mg/day) 9.3 3.4 No. of days of WHO requirement met by 1 portion (500 mg/day) 8.4 3.0 * Assumes fish oil mix of approx. 50% Peruvian anchovy and 50% North Atlantic sources * *Assumes EPA & DHA levels in salmon fillet are the same as the oil in the feed SO BY 2017 WE NEED: Approximately 400,000 tonnes of crude oil for refining for human consumption Approximately 400,000 tonnes for salmonid feed At least 200,000 tonnes for other aquaculture Fish oil production is predicted to remain at around 1 million tonnes Conclusion: we urgently need more sources of LC Omega 3 POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT SOURCES FOR 2015 • Algae • Krill • Genetically Modified oil seeds ALGAE • Two mains types of production: – Fermentation: investing companies include DSM Martek and Lonza – Sunlight: Aurora and Algae Biosciences • A lot of development on the back of biofuel research e.g. Cellana in Hawaii • Most still in the start up phase ALGAE • Ratio’s of EPA & DHA and concentrations vary from species to species and growing conditions • Generally concentrations of LC Omega 3 in the oil are higher than in fish oil • Using a 30% EPA/DHA equivalence production was around 5000 tonnes in 2011 and likely to be around 30,000 tonnes by 2017 KRILL • Antarctic krill biomass estimated to be 200 - 400 million tonnes • Managed by CCAMLR who have set a TAC of 5 million tonnes with a trigger level of 620,000 tonnes • Current catches only around 200,000 tonnes per annum • Aker Biomarine have obtained MSC certification for their harvests KRILL • Aker Biomarine world’s largest harvester of Antarctic Krill • They represent about 50% of current harvests • High value but volumes are still small and oil yields low • Growth is rapid but total volumes likely to be under 5000 tonnes of oil by 2017 GENETICALLY MODIFIED OIL SEEDS • There is no commercial production of plant based EPA & DHA production • The two species closest to market are soy and rapeseed (canola) GM SOY WITH LONGER-CHAIN OMEGA-3 IS CLOSE • Soymega from Monsanto with high SDA is expected to get regulatory approval in the US this year • An EPA product is still a few years away and DHA is over the horizon EPA & DHA FROM CANOLA ARE BEING WORKED ON • Dow AgroSciences & DSM are working on producing DHA in canola • Cargill and BASF announced in November 2011 that they were working on producing EPA and DHA from canola • A commercial product appears several years away Conclusion: There is no EPA & DHA from land plants available today. Unlikely to be significant volumes on the market in 2017. But the potential to increase rapidly once developed means that in ten years volumes could be considerable LIKELY TRENDS IN SUPPLY AND USE OF FISHMEAL AND FISH OIL GOING FORWARD • Continuing move to precautionary fishery management as well as to using fish for direct human consumption instead of fishmeal production • Increasing trend towards use of certification by marine ingredients producers to reassure value chain on sustainability/responsible stock management • At most a static supply of marine ingredients (~ 5 M tonnes pa fishmeal + 1 M tonnes pa fish oil) going forward but with an increasing proportion of fishery by-products • Continuing switch to greater added value use (eg to aquaculture for fishmeal instead of agriculture; and direct human consumption products for fish oil) • Increasing focus on micronutrients in fish raw materials to extend their availability and usefulness and create new added value products • Continuing growth in demand for aquaculture feed, but accompanied by a continuing trend towards substitution of marine ingredients and to their use as strategic ingredients being restricted to critical stages in the life cycle LIKELY TRENDS IN SUPPLY AND USE (CONTD.) • Emergence of new sources of raw material - It is unlikely that LC omega-3 demand will be met by GM crop expression in next 5 years, but algal oil is already entering human nutrition & pharmaceuticals • From 2000 to 2010 the FIFO ratio for fed aquaculture has fallen from 0.6:1 to 0.3:1 - even so-called ‘carnivorous’ fish will increasingly be commercially farmed to yield a net production of fish protein and oil • It seems unlikely there is a ‘fishmeal trap’ meaning that aquaculture growth will not be limited by the availability of marine ingredients • In other words there’s enough fishmeal for aquaculture going forward but fish oil could become limiting, pending availability of new sources • Increasing fish oil demand for direct human consumption will mean reduced availability for aquaculture resulting in lower LC omega-3 levels in aquaculture products – but also in higher omega-6 levels • Increasing differentiation of salmon products by retailers is likely and failure to meet international recommendations may become an issue • Taking a global view, there are still areas for improvement, especially the use of low value/trash fish fed raw to aquaculture in S E Asia THANK YOU [email protected]