Modelos de Análise de Risco e de Apoio à decisão Rodrigo Fernandes MARETEC – Instituto Superior Técnico MOHID Oil Spill model Source code development EU Projects (ECOOP, EROCIPS, ARCOPOL, ARCOPOL+, ARCOPOLplatform, EASY, EASYCO, DRIFTER, ISDAMP) Cooperation with national and local portuguese maritime authorities (exercises, beta testing, and model calibration) Operational support to real accidents (e.g. Prestige) Context (1/6) Maritime Traffic in the Portuguese EEZ: hundreds of ships daily from / to Northern Europe Vessel traffic density map – 2nd semester 2013 (source: MarineTraffic) Context (2/6) Portugal New EEZ: biggest in Europe and 10th in the World Context (3/6) Portugal | probability of accidents Near some of the biggest historic oil spills Source: ITOPF Context (4/6) Portugal Social-economic relevance of Sea in Portugal Harbours and Ports Infraestructures Culture Leasure Fishing Sports 11% of GDP* 12% of employment* 90% tourism profits** High responsibility in terms of security and navigation, as well as prevention and response to maritime pollution *Source: Universidade Católica, 2004 *Source: INE, 2004 Context (5/6) New technologies (AIS) Context (6/6) New technologies (forecasting systems) Context (summary) High probability of accidents High gravity and disastrous consequences New technological solutions are now available Solution Adopted “What is the environmental impact of a potential accident occurring with that ship, at that location under those weather conditions?” Dynamic Risk Approach Static vs. Dynamic Risk Static = working with scenarios (good for planning stages) Dynamic = using best available forecasts or measured metocean data Methods Dynamic Risk Tool - Scheme Ship Information: Position, velocity, vessel type, cargo type, dead weight (AIS) MetOcean Model Data: waves, currents, weather, visibility Coastal Sensitivity Indexes Statistic information from ship accidents Dynamic Risk Tool - a) Spill Risk Levels; - b) Shoreline Pollution Risk Levels * * Taking in account Background Spill Simulations (based on ship positioning and meteocean model data) Dynamic Risk Tool Task 5.2.1 Dynamic Risk Tool Coastal Impact: ship distance from coast Coastal Impact: based in virtual oil spills from ships (with MOHID) Dynamic Risk Tool Vessel Details Dynamic Risk Tool Search Isolated Risks | Filter by site Dynamic Risk Tool Search Isolated Risks | Filter by site Dynamic Risk Tool Search Isolated Risks | Filter by site Dynamic Risk Tool Search Isolated Risks | Filter by site Dynamic Risk Tool | Advantages Innovative approach to risk mapping (coupling realtime observations, statistics, baseline information and up-to-date models) Integration with continuous background oil spill modelling improves quantification of consequences to the shoreline Improves decision support model Prioritisation of individual ships and geographical areas Facilitates strategic and dynamic tug positioning Easily adaptable to other regions Can be used in planning stages (allows to run past or hypothetical scenarios) Oil spill + Boom modelling Oil spill + Boom modelling Interfaces in other platforms: web browsers Interfaces in other platforms: web browsers Interfaces in other platforms: web services & smartphones CLEANSEANET notification service (oil slick detected by satellite) MOHID Web Service (forward and backward in time) Distribution of results to end users Past experiences: ARCOPOL Oil Spill Simulator Initial slick position (from CLEANSEANET) Integration with EMSA CLEANSEANET image formats Past Experiences: Bathing Water Quality alert system Final Remarks & Future Work Metocean and oil spill models integrated with available maritime surveillance systems can be used to monitor risks and to help maritime authorities in both strategic and operational and tactical decisions Continuous model validation and software testing process is essential to ensure preparedness Next challenge: Integration of multiple modelbased decision support tools in an oil spill response COP (common operating picture) Obrigado! [email protected]