Changing Risks of and Responses to
Extreme Events in Cities
ARC3 Case Studies
Maputo, Mozambique
New York City
Santiago, Chile
Cynthia Rosenzweig
Wim Debucquoy
CSDS team in alphabetical order: Somayya Ali Ibrahim, Ioana Blaj, Patrick Driscoll,, Martin Lehman, David
Major, Jovana Milic, Stephen Solecki & William Solecki
Assessment Report on Climate Change and Cities
Goddard Institute for Space Studies
New York, NY
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Cities are at the forefront of extreme events and
climate change responses across the globe
Hurricane Katrina August, 2005
New Orleans
Hurricane Sandy October, 2012
New York
NASA, October 29, 2012
Cities have experience in responding to
climate-related disasters:
– Cities experience the power of
climate disruption due to high
population density and extensive
infrastructure
– This experience has taught city
leaders that disasters are the
product of interactions between
natural processes and human
interactions and that preparedness
is important
– Many city leaders understand that
climate change may increase these
risks
Box 3.5, ARC3, 2011
The Urban Climate Change Research Network
UCCRN
UCCRN Mission: Enable cities to fulfill their climate
leadership potential in disaster risk reduction and
climate change mitigation and adaptation
•
A consortium of ~550 scholars and practitioners from
over 100 developed and developing cities around the
world
•
First UCCRN Assessment Report on Climate Change and
Cities (ARC3) published in 2011, a four-year effort by 100
authors from 50+ cities
•
Second UCCRN Assessment Report on Climate Change and
Cities (ARC3-2) scheduled to be published by end of 2015
at COP21 in Paris
www.uccrn.org
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ARC3 Case Study Docking Station
• Online, searchable, open-source database with peer-curated case studies as
well as published versions in report
• Authored by researchers, institutional program personnel (e.g., UN-HABITAT),
NGO experts (e.g., WWF)
• Designed to be useful for both research and practice, so that city response
pathways can be tracked over time
• Use of common data collection protocol and systematic peer-curated to
achieve higher level of scientific rigor
• Goals are to enable scientifically valid cross-case comparisons, disseminate
information, and inspire local climate action
Share lessons learned
Note: Case Study Docking Station is still in development
and not yet operational
ARC3 Case Studies
As of May 5, 2015, 93 ARC3-2 case studies
Sample ARC3 Case Study
• Data Protocol,
including sources
• 100-word abstract
• Full case study text
(700-1000 words)
Search Criteria and Classification (1)
Keywords
• Climate hazard
Flood
Heat wave
Drought
Heavy downpour
etc.
• Type of adaptation/mitigation
Policy
Infrastructure
Ecosystem-based
Community-based
etc.
• Topic
According to ARC3-2 chapters (e.g.,
Coastal Zones; Urban Health; Water
Resources; Governance)
Search Criteria and Classification (2)
Classification
• City size (UN-Habitat)
Less than 100,000
Small: 100,000- 500,000
Intermediate: 500,000 – 1 million
Big: 1-5 million
Large: 5-10 million
Mega: >10 million
• Income per capita (World Bank)
Low income: $1,035 or less
Lower middle income: $1,036 to $4,085
Upper middle income: $4,086 to $12,615
High income: $12,616 or more
• HDI index (UNDP)
Low < 0.550
Medium 0.550–0.699
High 0.700–0.799
Very high > 0.800
• Climate zones
Köppen-Gieger classification
Keyword Search
Search keyword “flooding”
Dakar, Senegal
Helsinki, Finland
Napoli, Italy
Case Study Details
From this page, full Case
Study can be downloaded
Comparing City Responses (1)
ARC3 Case Study Docking Station
• Characterizes differences in goals, approaches,
processes, and responses
• Enables inferences to be drawn across case studies
and
New York City
Vivien Gornitz, Radley Horton, David C.
Major, Dan Bader, and Cynthia Rosenzweig
Dhaka
Anika Nasra Haque and
Stelios Grafakos
Comparing City Responses (2)
New York City
Dhaka
Area of municipality (km²)
1,214 km2
139 km2
Area of metropolitan region (km²)
360 km2
Population (city)
17,405 km2
8,405,837 (2014 NYC Dept. City Planning)
Population (metropolitan area)
19.9 million (U.S. Census, est. 2013)
14,171,567 (BBS, 2011)
Density (city) ( /km²)
10,414/km2
50 144 /km2
Density (metropolitan area) ( /km²)
1,143/km2
39 365 /km2
Latitude and Longitude
40 42 N, 74 00 W
23°42' and 23°54' N and 90°20' and 90°28' E
Climate zone (Köppen-Gieger Climate
Zones)
Hot summer continental climate (Dfa)
Tropical climate (Aw)
Topography (description)
Low to moderate relief. Highest elevation:
130 m; 0 m at shoreline.
GDP nation (Purchasing power parity)
$ 16 768 100 million (World Bank, 2013)
Flat with slight undulations. Elevation ranges varies
from 0.5m to 12m, with 70% of the total area
within 0.5-5m (Halcrow, 2006).
$ 150 billion (World Bank, 2014)
Gross National Income (GNI) per capita
$ 53 470 (high income) (World Bank, 2013)
$ 1010 (low income) (World Bank, 2013)
Human Development Index (national)
0,914 (Very High) (UNDP, 2014)
0.558 (Medium) (UNDP, 2012)
Adaptation Strategies
Flood walls, development of climate resiliency
indicators, retrofits to transportation
infrastructure based upon flood projections,
Greenstreet vegeation to absorb excess
stormwater
Mitigation Strategies
Benchmarking energy performance in
buildings, raising standards for buidling and
energy codes, flood resilience and energy
performance retrofits, Cool Roofs
Management of urban waste, ongoing Clean
Development Mechanism (CDM) projects on solar
energy and waste management, improvement of
energy consumption pattern in transport sector
etc.
Strategies adapted by the public sector: Flood
walls,
embankment,
pumping
station,
regulators/sluices, canal improvement, elevating
road etc.
6,970,105 (BBS, 2011)
Comparing City Responses (2)
New York City
Dhaka
Area of municipality (km²)
1,214 km2
139 km2
Area of metropolitan region (km²)
360 km2
Population (city)
17,405 km2
8,405,837 (2014 NYC Dept. City Planning)
Population (metropolitan area)
19.9 million (U.S. Census, est. 2013)
14,171,567 (BBS, 2011)
Density (city) ( /km²)
10,414/km2
50 144 /km2
Density (metropolitan area) ( /km²)
1,143/km2
39 365 /km2
Latitude and Longitude
40 42 N, 74 00 W
23°42' and 23°54' N and 90°20' and 90°28' E
Climate zone (Köppen-Gieger Climate
Zones)
Hot summer continental climate (Dfa)
Tropical climate (Aw)
Topography (description)
Low to moderate relief. Highest elevation:
130 m; 0 m at shoreline.
GDP nation (Purchasing power parity)
$ 16 768 100 million (World Bank, 2013)
Flat with slight undulations. Elevation ranges varies
from 0.5m to 12m, with 70% of the total area
within 0.5-5m (Halcrow, 2006).
$ 150 billion (World Bank, 2014)
Gross National Income (GNI) per capita
$ 53 470 (high income) (World Bank, 2013)
$ 1010 (low income) (World Bank, 2013)
Human Development Index (national)
0,914 (Very High) (UNDP, 2014)
0.558 (Medium) (UNDP, 2012)
Adaptation Strategies
Flood walls, development of climate resiliency
indicators, retrofits to transportation
infrastructure based upon flood projections,
Greenstreet vegeation to absorb excess
stormwater
Mitigation Strategies
Benchmarking energy performance in
buildings, raising standards for buidling and
energy codes, flood resilience and energy
performance retrofits, Cool Roofs
Management of urban waste, ongoing Clean
Development Mechanism (CDM) projects on solar
energy and waste management, improvement of
energy consumption pattern in transport sector
etc.
Strategies adapted by the public sector: Flood
walls,
embankment,
pumping
station,
regulators/sluices, canal improvement, elevating
road etc.
6,970,105 (BBS, 2011)
Projections and Responses to
Climate Change in NYC
•
Bloomberg administration primary focus on
infrastructure (SIRR); De Blasio
administration focus on equity (OneNYC)
•
Sea level is expected to rise (NPCC, 2015)
•
•
•
•
11 to 21 inches* by the 2050s
18 to 39 inches* by the 2080s
Up to 6 feet** by 2100
Ongoing and proposed initiatives call for:
• Improved coastal flood mapping
• Continuation of collaboration with NPCC to
update and refine local climate projections
• Strengthened coastal defenses using a
portfolio of approaches tailored to
specific neighborhood needs
* Middle range (25th to 75th percentile) of model-based projections.
** High end (90th percentile) of model-based projections.
Source: NPCC, 2015
New York City
Co-generated Climate Science
•
The New York City Panel on Climate
Change (NPCC) was created by Mayor
Bloomberg in 2008.
•
Local Law 42 established the NPCC as
ongoing body
•
The NPCC co-generates climate risk
information with stakeholders and
City planners to develop relevant data
that best informs policy.
Latest report, NPCC 2015, was
released in February of this year
Dhaka
Participatory Approach
• Performed multi-criteria analysis (MCA)
on options with a focus on a
participatory process
• Criteria and weights selected by key
stakeholders; experts provided input
• Government is planning several adaptive
measures (e.g., flood protection)
Flooding in secondary road (left) and main arterial road (right)
Source Images: Haque, A. & Grafakos, S., 2015
Flood map of Dhaka city during 1998 flood showing
inundated study area
Dhaka Adaptation Assessment
• Ranking of different adaptation measures by Multi-Criteria Analysis (MCA)
Measures
Protection of water-retention areas*
Enhancing early warning systems
Canal improvements
Embankments
Construction and upgrading of storm
sewer/drainage systems**
Raised roads
Enhancing emergency response
mechanisms
Flood walls
Score
0.74
0.72
0.69
0.56
0.52
Rank
1
2
3
4
5
0.47
0.44
6
7
0.40
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Final ranking and scoring results of adaptation measures (Source: Haque, A. & Grafakos, S., 2015)
*Reducing vulnerability to
flooding, while also
meeting cost, ecology, and
employment generation
criteria
**Main flood
management measure
discussed by government,
but proved far less
prioritized
• Adaptation assessment provides support for policy design and decision-making
• MCA process contributes to knowledge-generation and sharing due to expert
and stakeholder interactions
Conclusions
The ARC3 Case Study Docking Station
• Is a first step in characterizing the rich diversity in cities´ responses to
increasing risks of extreme events due to climate change
• Provides lessons learned in order to share solutions and inspire
climate action in other cities; New York and Dhaka have a lot to learn
from each other
• Allows for initial cross-case comparison and analysis, enabling new
possibilities for research
• Will be an ongoing effort, enabling city stakeholders and researchers
from around the world to share their experience and expertise as
response pathways develop over time
Note: Case Study Docking Station is still in development and not yet operational
For more information, please visit:
Urban Climate Change Research Network (UCCRN)
www.uccrn.org
New York City Panel on Climate Change (NPCC) http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/nyas.2015.1336.issue-1/issuetoc
Columbia University Center for Climate Systems Research (CCSR)
http://ccsr.columbia.edu/
Goddard Institute for Space Studies
New York, NY
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