Extremes and Extremism: Why Climate Stress Increases Political Violence Extreme Weather and Climate: Hazards, Impacts, Actions Columbia University 6 May 2015 Marc Levy CIESIN, Earth Institute Columbia University [email protected] @marc_a_levy 1 2 4 out of 43 pages devoted to environmental Security All subsequent threat assessments 3 Syria civil war >220k deaths, > 3.3 m refugees Our latest candidate for a “climate war” Unprecedented, widespread drought, massive relocation, severe deprivation preceded violent unrest 4 Gleick 2014 http://foreignpolicy.com/2015/02/ 03/top-twenty-five-schoolsinternational-relations/ 5 Security Council begins holding debates on climate change in 2007 6 CLIMATE CHANGE 2014: IMPACTS, ADAPTATION, AND VULNERABILITY Human security will be progressively threatened as the climate changes (robust evidence, high agreement). Adger et al,, 2014 IPCC AR5 WG2 Chapter 12 What’s behind the convergence? 8 Larrick et al, 2011 HT Solomon Hsiang Evidence from many quarters that climate extremes make it harder to regulate violence 9 Red = T Green = Anomaly Blue=P deficit These are effects net of country circumstances Hsiang et al 2013 10 This is very bad news McElroy and Baker 2012 The climate stress that historically doubled conflict risk is now much more common WMO 11 Number of countries that are neither democratic nor autocratic is at all-time high 1% 12% 1% 12 X Democratization trend, replotted as instability risk 13 Risk of electoral process breaking down goes up as temperature goes up Levy, 2014 Year-controlled results not significant below 30-year 14 Efforts to manage climate extremes can shift risk to others (security dilemma) 15 Tuareg kept moving as drought continued Government stole food aid Tuareg in northern Mali affected by large-scale drought in 1970s/1980s After Gaddafi deposed, many returned to Mali helped topple government Many ended up in Libya Gaddafi radicalized, armed, trained, and deployed Tuareg Today, Libya is key link in 16 migration crisis It is a bad time to be facing systemic risks Globalization and political fragmentation yield little resilience, few tools. 17 Shockingly, not everyone agrees 18 Fears of environmental determinism and racism 1) We went too far in rooting out objectionable views. Geography does matter! 1957 2) This is not your father’s 19 environmental determinism. We thought things were going so well 20 21 The contexts are frightening This is not a fad. The convergence is evidence-based Climate extremes make it hard to regulate violence Many responses trigger more problems "You have a very silly statement in the draft summary that says that people who live in war-torn countries are more vulnerable to climate change Climate and governance trends are interacting perversely Globalization makes cascading breakdowns more likely Don’t shoot the messenger, join the search for solutions 22