Information | Analytics | Expertise
APRIL 2015
4K: FROM NUMBERS
MARKETING TO UHD
Paul Gray, Principal Analyst
+44 7810 854646
[email protected]
© 2015 IHS
IFA GPC, Malta / May 2015
UHD Ecosystem
Health Check
• UHD TV shipments surging
• Performance evolving
• Standardization unfinished
© 2015 IHS
Displays
Streaming
Broadcast
Discs
• Streaming services driving
UHD content delivery
• Broadcasters focusing on
quality not speed; different
content genres
• UHD Discs not yet available
• Retail channels collapsing
• Consumers renting and
increasingly mobile
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IFA GPC, Malta / May 2015
4K TV Shipment History
6
100%
90%
Shipment (millions)
5
80%
70%
4
60%
3
50%
• Q4’14 saw further growth of shipments
of 4K TVs, typical seasonality.
• Shipments were 5.2 million in Q4’14,
up over 550% Y/Y.
40%
2
30%
20%
1
10%
0
0%
Q1
Q2
Q3
2013
Japan
Western Europe
China
Latin America
China %
© 2015 IHS
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
2014
North America
Eastern Europe
Asia Pacific
Middle East and Africa
• China’s share fell to 46% from 62% in
Q3’14.
• Seasonal weakness, some fatigue.
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IFA GPC, Malta / May 2015
4K Forecast
4K TV Shipment Forecast (millions)
• We have increased our forecast again for all
regions with more aggressive shipment mix.
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
-
• By 2018 ALL 50”+ 3840x2160 resolution.
• Remains a significant difference in strategy be
tween Chinese and Global brands.
• Expect most 4K sets to ship in China each year
during forecast period.
• China 40-50% of shipments each year from 20
15.
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
© 2015 IHS
Japan
N. America
W. Europe
E. Europe
China
Asia Pacific
Lat Am
MEA
• Japanese set makers aggressive with 4K in
domestic market.
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IFA GPC, Malta / May 2015
4K Retailing in Japan
• Major Japanese retailers
devoting most of their space
to large (60”+) 4K TVs with
very carefully-arranged
demonstrations.
• HD sets hidden in a corner!
© 2015 IHS
5
IFA GPC, Malta / May 2015
Enhancements for genuine Ultra-HD: Subjective Tests
Resolution has no wow effect
UHD visibly better than Full HD at 1.5x screen height (e.g. 84” at 1.6m)
• High Frame Rate: noticeable
• 120Hz native content provides much better quality than 60Hz.
• Big difference with sports content.
• High Dynamic Range: very noticeable
• Perceived video quality and viewing comfort increases with peak luminance
• BUT some viewers reported visual discomfort at high luminance (3000 cd/m2)
• Standardization necessary; no sunglasses!
• Deep colour: noticeable with the right content
© 2015 IHS
6
IFA GPC, Malta / May 2015
Quantum Dot LCD Forecast
Quantum Dot LCD TV Forecast (millions)
• Visible on any screen sizeNincluding
tablets & phones
25
20
• e-Commerce demands accurate
colour for tablets, smartphones and
high-end notebooks.
15
10
• Anticipate a surge in competing RGB
LED technology.
5
2014
© 2015 IHS
Japan
2015
N. America
2016
2017
W. Europe
China
Asia Pacific
Lat Am
2018
E. Europe
MEA
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IFA GPC, Malta / May 2015
UHD Enhancements Depend On Genre
• Scripted content shot to avoid shortcomings in depth of field, motion blur.
• Live sports is the breadwinner of broadcast: fast action with everything sharp.
• UHD Cameras readily available, lenses a significant (and expensive) problem.
• Massive data difficult to transport live in studios etc.
• Workflows / outside broadcast compatible with HD, unlike 3D.
• Streaming services well-suited to movies, live needs broadcast.
• Many streaming UHD viewers likely watching clean HD due to broadband speed variations
© 2015 IHS
8
IFA GPC, Malta / May 2015
UHD in Smartphones
Mobile Phone Display Resolution Forecast:
• Resolution over 700ppi this year.
• 6.2” 3840x2160.
• By 2021 50%+ above 400ppi
• current iPhone 6+
• 200 million UHD smartphones ship in
2021
• 500M+ installed base, assuming 3 year life
Pixels per Inch (ppi)
2,5
2,0
Shipments (Billions)
• Display performance a figure of merit
for smartphones.
1,5
1,0
0,5
0,0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
<100
400-500
© 2015 IHS
100-200
500-600
200-300
>600
300-400
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IFA GPC, Malta / May 2015
Thank you!
[email protected]
+44 7810 854646
© 2015 IHS
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