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NiveshDaily
March 19, 2015
INDICES
Indices
Previous (day) Close
% chg
Sensex
Nifty
28,622.12
8,685.90
-0.40%
-0.43%
(As on 18th March, 2015)
FROM RESEARCH DESK
 Company Updates
CARE Ratings | Reiterate ‘BUY’ with Target Price of Rs 1,800/-
 Management Meet Update
Management Meet Update | IPCA Laboratories Ltd. | Work-in-progress to resolve regulatory
issues; maintain HOLD with PT Under Review
 Global Markets - Outlook
Daljeet S. Kohli
Head of Research
Tel: +91 22 66188826
[email protected]
IndiaNivesh Research
IndiaNivesh Securities Private Limited
601 & 602, Sukh Sagar, N. S. Patkar Marg, Girgaum Chowpatty, Mumbai 400 007. Tel: (022) 66188800
IndiaNivesh Research is also available on Bloomberg INNS, Thomson First Call, Reuters and Factiva INDNIV.
Company Updates
Daljeet S. Kohli
Head of Research
CARE Ratings | Reiterate ‘BUY’ with Target Price of Rs 1,800/-
Tel: +91 22 66188826
[email protected]
We are positive on huge long term opportunities for the credit rating sector on the
back of development in Indian debt market over FY15-17E. The company’s above
average industry growth rate, highest margins, superior efficiency and return profile
among the listed peers makes it more attractive investment. We believe CARE is
the best pick among listed rating agencies as more than 95% of its revenue comes
from domestic ratings. Declining interest rates coupled with better demand is
expected to lift corporate capex by H2FY16. We reiterate ‘BUY’ rating on the stock
with the same price target of Rs 1,800/- (P/E multiple of 25x for FY17E).
Kaushal Patel
Research Associate
Tel: +91 22 66188834
[email protected]
IDBI Bank has sold its 10% stake in CARE Ratings for Rs 4.2 bn. It sold 2.9 mn shares
at an average price of Rs 1,453/- a share as on March 18, 2015. Life Insurance
Corporation of India (LIC) has picked 9.94% stake in Credit Analysis and Research
(CARE) for Rs 4.2 bn. It has purchased 2.9 mn shares at a price of Rs 1,453 a share
on the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE). However, there will not be any operational or
financial impact on the CARE ratings due to such a deal.
Outlook and Valuation:
The company’s performance is driven a lot by new business which is dependent on
growth in overall investment climate in the economy. We believe that bank credit
growth has bottomed out and expect it to pick up in next few quarters. In addition
to, there is a huge long term opportunities for the credit rating sector on the back
of development in debt market due to likely revival in corporate capex and CARE is
well positioned to grow organically and inorganically once the economy revival starts.
CARE is the best placed for cyclical recovery in corporate capex and bank credit
growth. CARE is our preferred pick among the listed credit rating agencies. At CMP
of Rs 1,488/-, the stock is now trading at P/E multiple of 25x and 21x for FY16E and
FY17E respectively. We continue to maintain ‘BUY’ rating on the stock with the
same price target of Rs 1,800/- (P/E multiple of 25x for FY17E).
IndiaNivesh Research
NiveshDaily
March 19, 2015 | 2
Management
Meet Update
March 19, 2015
IPCA Laboratories Ltd.
Work-in-progress to resolve regulatory issues
Current
Previous
CMP : Rs.777
Rating : HOLD
Rating : HOLD
Target : UR
Target : Rs.598
(UR-Under Review)
STOCK INFO
Index
BSE
NSE
Bloomberg
Reuters
Sector
Face Value (Rs)
Equity Capital (Rs mn)
Mkt Cap (Rs mn)
52w H/L
Avg Daily Vol (BSE+NSE)
S&P BSE 200
524494
IPCALAB
IPCA IN
IPCA.BO
Pharmaceutical
2
252
98,028
899 / 591
615,417
SHAREHOLDING PATTERN
%
(as on Dec. 2014)
Promoters
FIIs
DIIs
Public & Others
45.9
22.8
11.9
19.4
Source: BSE
STOCK PERFORMANCE (%) 1m
IPCA LAB
12.9
SENSEX
(2.9)
3m
9.4
4.6
Source: IndiaNivesh Research
IPCA LAB v/s SENSEX
IPCA LABS LTD
SENSEX Index
160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 ‐
Source: IndiaNivesh Research, Capitaline
Daljeet S. Kohli
Head of Research
Tel: +91 22 66188826
[email protected]
Tushar Manudhane
Research Analyst
Tel: +91 22 66188835
[email protected]
IndiaNivesh Research
12m
(5.5)
31.1
We recently met the management of Ipca Lab (IPCA IN) to get an update with
respect to various regulatory inspections and subsequent impact on business going
forward. Also, we tried to understand the synergy between Krebs Biochemicals
and Industries (KBC IN) and IPCA post acquiring considerable stake in KBC. The US
business is majorly affected due to import alert by USFDA at its API facility at
Ratlam. The regulatory hurdle had affected Institutional Anti-malaria business
as well. The branded business in Russia/CIS countries was affected due to currency
headwinds. IPCA is in the process of taking corrective actions to resolve USFDA
issues. The management expects to complete the corrective actions by end of
March 2015. There has been sharp run up of 20% in stock price in month of March
2015 till date. However, we would wait for more clarity on outcome of steps taken
for resolution of USFDA issues, to incorporate respective changes in financials
and hence in price target. Hence, we put our price target under review. However,
we maintain HOLD rating on the stock. We believe any positive news on USFDA
issues resolution would be a re-rating to the stock which is trading at discount to
its peers. At CMP of Rs777, the stock is trading at the stock is trading at 20.8x
FY16E EPS of Rs37.4 and 18.2x FY17E EPS of Rs42.7.
Corrective actions in progress to resolve USFDA issues: Post import alert in January
2015, IPCA is in the process of implementing corrective measures to comply with
USFDA norms. The import alert by USFDA had triggered inspection by other
regulatory agencies as well. Ipca’s API plant at Ratlam had inspection from 59
regulatory agencies since then. The inspections were done by European regulatory
agency, WHO Geneva and TGA-Australia in February 2015. However, IPCA received
the formal outcome of inspection by European regulatory agency, WHO Geneva
and TGA-Australia in very recent past. IPCA would respond to the letter and may
take 8-10 weeks in total to resolve the issue. API sales were adversely impacted
during the corresponding period. IPCA expects API sales to ROW market to revive in
next 2-3 months. In addition, the profitability was also affected due to higher
expenses related to consultancy charges and implementation of corrective measures.
IPCA expects to complete the implementation of corrective measures to comply
with USFDA norms by the end of March 2015.
Inorganic growth due to KBC: IPCA picked 18.92% stake in KBC in February 2015,
triggering open offer to buy up to 26%. The open offer is made at Rs54 as share.
The open offer is from April 15, 2015 to April 28, 2015. Post completion of
transaction, Ipca would be able to use the manufacturing facility of KBC for its
products in biotechnology space. Unit II at Vizag is EUGMP approved, while Unit I at
Nellore is USFDA approved. However, Unit I was last inspected in 2011 and the
plant was not operational for past one year. Thus, the facility would have to be reinspected before commercial operation, followed by stability test for products for
US market. Overall, the gestation period is about 2 years for facility to have
commercial operation for US market. However, the facility would be ready for India
and ROW market in 3-4 months time frame once the transaction closes.
Domestic Formulation business to grow at steady rate of 16-17% y-y in medium
term: Domestic formulation (DF) has been the steady stream of business for IPCA,
with 12-13% y-y growth driven by volume. New product launches and price led 23% y-y growth. IPCA has shown 16.4% y-y growth in this segment for 9MFY15. IPCA
is expected to show similar growth in medium term, mainly led by volume. The y-y
growth due to new product introduction would be slower as product approval is
IndiaNivesh Securities Private Limited
601 & 602, Sukh Sagar, N. S. Patkar Marg, Girgaum Chowpatty, Mumbai 400 007. Tel: (022) 66188800
IndiaNivesh Research is also available on Bloomberg INNS, Thomson First Call, Reuters and Factiva INDNIV.
Management Meet Update (contd...)
taking longer time. Anti-malarials, Cardiovascular, anti-diabetes and Non-steroidal
anti-inflammatory drug (NSAID) would continue to drive y-y growth for IPCA.
Institutional Anti-Malaria business to pick up in FY16, subject to regulatory
approval: Institutional anti-malaria business remains impacted due to regulatory
hurdle. In 9MFY15, IPCA garnered sales to the tune of Rs2.3bn (US$37mn). The
regulatory hurdle has resulted in temporary loss of business of US$23mn in FY15.
However, there is chance of recovery of lost business subject to regulatory clearance.
There could be ramp up in sales in FY16 due to deferring of sales to FY16. There has
been deferment of injectables anti-malaria business as one of the equipment has
not performed as per the requirement. IPCA has replaced the equipment by
procuring from other company, resulting in some delay in injectables anti-malaria
business.
Capex update: IPCA had capex to the tune of Rs6bn over past two years. The major
capex of Rs2bn was spent on setting up new API facility at Baroda, which comprised
of two manufacturing blocks and one R&D block. The land size of baroda unit is
sufficient for further expansion as and when required. IPCA guided for first batch of
commercial manufacturing for India and ROW market by April 2015. About Rs800mn
-900mn was spent on Hormone facility. Another Rs600mn-800mn was spent for
new administrative building at Kandivli. About Rs400mn-450mn was spent on
acquiring Tarapur facility for ROW market. With major capex done for FY15, IPCA
guided to have maintainence capex in FY16.
Valuation: At CMP of Rs777, the stock is trading at 20.8x FY16E EPS of Rs37.4 and
18.2x FY17E EPS of Rs42.7. The stock depreciated by 13% in second half of January
2015, probably due to import alert at its API facility at Ratlam. There has been
sharp run up of 20% in March 2015 till date in anticipation of faster resolution of
USFDA issues. However, we would wait for more clarity on outcome of steps taken
for resolution of USFDA issues, to incorporate respective changes in financials and
hence in price target. Hence, we put our price target under review. However, we
maintain HOLD rating on the stock. We believe any positive news on USFDA issues
resolution would be a re-rating to the stock which is trading at discount to its peers.
IndiaNivesh Research
IPCA Laboratories Ltd.
March 19, 2015| 2
Management Meet Update (contd...)
Standalone Financial Summary
Income statement
Y E March (Rs m)
Net sales
Growth %
Expenditure
Raw Material
Employee cost
Other expenses
EBITDA
Growth %
EBITDA Margin %
Deprecaition
EBIT
EBIT Margin %
Other Income
Interest
PBT
Tax
Effective tax rate %
Extraordinary items
Less: Minority Interest
Adjusted PAT
Growth%
PAT margin %
Reported PAT
Growth%
FY13
27,388
19.1%
FY14
31,818
16.2%
FY15E
31,504
‐1.0%
FY16E
36,862
17.0%
FY17E
42,851
16.2%
10,910
3,766
6,895
5,817
20.3%
21.2%
840
11,274
4,779
8,244
7,522
29.3%
23.6%
1,009
9,451
5,501
10,580
5,972
‐20.6%
19.0%
1,154
11,796
6,269
11,581
7,216
20.8%
19.6%
1,284
13,712
7,242
13,220
8,677
20.3%
20.2%
1,410
4,977
18.2%
583
313
5,247
1,300
24.8%
(633)
6,513
20.5%
745
246
7,012
1,517
21.6%
(721)
4,818
15.3%
693
257
5,254
1,576
30.0%
-
5,932
16.1%
822
194
6,561
1,837
28.0%
-
7,267
17.0%
978
194
8,052
2,657
33.0%
-
3,947
18.5%
14.4%
3,314
18.3%
5,495
39.2%
17.3%
4,774
44.0%
3,678
‐33.1%
11.7%
3,678
‐23.0%
4,724
28.4%
12.8%
4,724
28.4%
5,395
14.2%
12.6%
5,395
14.2%
Y E March (Rs m)
Share Capital
Reserves & Surplus
Net Worth
Non Current Liabilities
Long term borrowing
Deferred Tax liabilities
Other Loang Term Liabilities
Long term Provisions
FY13
252
15,446
15,699
FY14
252
19,564
19,816
FY15E
252
22,506
22,758
FY16E
252
26,238
26,490
FY17E
252
30,445
30,698
3,662
1,304
4
122
5,092
2,921
1,471
4
145
4,541
2,921
1,471
4
145
4,541
2,921
1,471
4
145
4,541
2,921
1,471
4
145
4,541
1,571
2,655
1,652
419
6,297
27,088
1,380
3,374
2,514
547
7,814
32,171
1,380
2,300
1,900
547
6,126
33,426
1,380
2,870
2,223
547
7,020
38,051
1,380
3,336
2,584
547
7,848
43,086
12,045
218
977
14,710
288
1,338
15,762
288
1,338
16,689
288
1,338
17,422
288
1,338
7,335
4,159
547
496
1,311
13,848
8,385
4,485
695
655
1,617
15,836
8,437
4,784
672
571
1,575
16,039
9,871
5,598
1,756
668
1,843
19,736
11,475
6,508
3,137
777
2,143
24,039
27,088
32,171
33,426
38,051
43,086
Y E March
EPS (Rs) Core
EPS Reported
Cash EPS (Rs)
DPS (Rs)
BVPS (Rs)
FY13
31.3
26.3
37.9
4.7
124.4
FY14
43.5
37.8
51.5
7.2
157.0
FY15E
29.1
29.1
38.3
5.8
180.3
FY16E
37.4
37.4
47.6
7.9
209.9
FY17E
42.7
42.7
53.9
9.4
243.2
ROCE
ROE
14.6%
33.4%
17.1%
35.4%
11.0%
23.1%
12.4%
24.8%
12.5%
26.2%
98
55
89
98
55
89
98
55
89
98
55
89
98
55
89
24.8
6.2
17.7
0.6%
3.6
0.3
0.8
17.8
4.9
13.5
0.9%
3.1
0.2
0.5
26.7
4.3
17.0
0.8%
3.1
0.2
0.6
20.8
3.7
13.9
1.0%
2.7
0.1
0.4
18.2
3.2
11.4
1.2%
2.3
0.0
0.1
Current Liabilities
Short term borrowings
Trade payables
Other current liabilities
Short term provisions
Total Liabilities
Assets
Net Block
Non Current Investments
Long term laons & Advances
Current Assets
Inventories
Sundry Debtors
Cash & Banak Balances
Other Current Assets
Loans & Advances
Total assets
Cash Flow
Key ratios
Y E March (Rs m)
PBT
FY13
4,614
FY14
6,291
FY15E
5,254
FY16E
6,561
FY17E
8,052
Depreciation
Interest
Other non cash charges
Changes in working capital
Tax
Cash flow fromoperations
Capital expenditure
Free Cash Flow
Other income
Investments
Cash flow from investments
Equity capital raised
Loans availed or (repaid)
Interest paid
Dividend paid (incl tax)
Cash flow from Financing
Net change in cash
Cash at the beginning of the year
Adjust
Cash at the end of the year
840
313
19
(1,000)
(917)
3,869
(2,286)
1,583
100
(448)
(2,634)
(440)
445
(318)
(468)
(781)
453
93
1
547
1,009
246
76
(1,048)
(1,302)
5,271
(3,839)
1,432
140
(45)
(3,744)
(440)
(283)
(661)
(1,384)
144
531
21
695
1,154
257
(1,914)
(1,576)
3,174
(2,205)
969
(2,205)
(257)
(736)
(993)
(24)
695
672
1,284
194
(1,720)
(1,837)
4,482
(2,212)
2,270
(2,212)
(194)
(992)
(1,185)
1,084
672
1,756
1,410
194
(2,094)
(2,657)
4,904
(2,143)
2,762
(2,143)
(194)
(1,187)
(1,380)
1,381
1,756
3,137
Inventories Days
Sundry Debtors Days
Trades Payable Days
PER (x)
P/BV (x)
EV/EBITDA (x)
Dividend Yield %
m cap/sales (x)
net debt/equity (x)
net debt/ebitda (x)
Source: Company Filings; IndiaNivesh Research
IndiaNivesh Research
IPCA Laboratories Ltd.
March 19, 2015| 3
Global Markets - Outlook
Dharmesh Kant
VP Strategies & Fund Manager (PMS)
Mobile: +91 77383 93372
Tel: +91 22 66188890
[email protected]
Global Market Update

US Markets: U.S. stocks closed higher Wednesday after the Federal Open
Market Committee indicated a slower pace of rate hikes, following the removal
of the word “patient” from its policy statement.
The Fed’s “dot plot,” or survey of what Fed officials think rates should be at
certain times, indicated a slower rise in rates, as the median dot for the end
of 2015 declined to 0.625% from 1.125%. The Fed said it would raise rates
when “further” improvement in the labor market has been seen. Fed
Chairwoman Janet Yellen said at a news conference the central bank has not
determined timing on rate increases.
Below are highlights from the press conference by Federal Reserve
Chairwoman Janet Yellen after the central bank’s latest statement.
“Let me emphasize, however, that the timing of the initial increase in the
target range will depend on the committee’s assessment of incoming
information. Today’s modification of our guidance should not be interpreted
to mean that we have decided on the timing of that increase. In other words,
just because we removed the word patient from the statement doesn’t mean
we’re going to be impatient. Moreover, even after the initial increase in the
target funds rate, our policy is likely to remain highly accommodative to
support continued progress toward our objectives of maximum employment
and 2% inflation.”

Day’s Performance: The S&P 500 jumped 25.14 points, or 1.2%, to close at
2,099.42, with all 10 sectors finishing higher on the day, led by energy and
utilities. Just before the Fed’s statement, the S&P 500 was down 8 points.
The Nasdaq Composite surged 45.39 points, or 0.9%, to close at 4,982.83,
after being down about 17 points before the statement. The Dow Jones
Industrial Average surged 227.11 points, or 1.3%, to close at 18,076.19, after
trading down 101 points just before the statement’s release.

Set ups on S&P 500, Dow Industrial Average and Nasdaq 100 are correcting
from their all time high levels. We have consistently maintained set ups were
not convincing for a sustained rally while being cautious on US markets; we
are expecting a correction to 1900 levels on S&P 500.

Emerging markets: Asian stocks are trading in green this morning on
supportive global cues.

Bullions & Commodities: Gold is trading at $1173 per troy ounce this morning
up 1.88% from previous close. WTI Crude future is trading at $44.32 per barrel
while Brent Crude future is trading at $55.66 per barrel.

Currencies: The U.S. Dollar Index tracking the U.S. currency against a basket
of six others currencies trading at 97.31 this morning down (0.52%) from
previous close. Long term set ups up on Dollar Index are strong. Our target of
89 has been achieved. The dollar and U.S. stocks often trade on opposite
paths, with a weak dollar seen as providing investors with cheap funding to
buy stocks. Plus the dollar’s drop generally helps U.S. companies’ overseas
sales.
Source: Bloomberg
IndiaNivesh Research
NiveshDaily
March 19, 2015 | 3
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This report is based / focused on fundamentals of the Company and forward-looking statements as such, may not match with a report on a company’s technical analysis report
Each of the analysts named below hereby certifies that, with respect to each subject company and its securities for which the analyst is responsible in this report, (1) all of the views expressed in this report
accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject companies and securities, and (2) no part of his or her compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations
or views expressed in this report: Daljeet S Kohli, Amar Maurya, Abhishek Jain, Yogesh Hotwani, Prerna Jhunjhunwala, Kaushal Patel, Rahul Koli, Tushar Manudhane & Dharmesh Kant.
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14. Other disclosures
No
INSPL, its affiliates, directors, its proprietary trading and investment businesses may, from time to time, make investment decisions that are inconsistent with or contradictory to the recommendations expressed
herein. The views contained in this document are those of the analyst, and the company may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed within. This information is subject to change, as per applicable law,
without any prior notice. INSPL reserves the right to make modifications and alternations to this statement, as may be required, from time to time.
Definitions of ratings
BUY. We expect this stock to deliver more than 15% returns over the next 12 months.
HOLD. We expect this stock to deliver -15% to +15% returns over the next 12 months.
SELL. We expect this stock to deliver <-15% returns over the next 12 months.
Our target prices are on a 12-month horizon basis.
Other definitions
NR = Not Rated. The investment rating and target price, if any, have been arrived at due to certain circumstances not in control of INSPL
CS = Coverage Suspended. INSPL has suspended coverage of this company.
UR=Under Review. Such e invest review happens when any developments have already occurred or likely to occur in target company & INSPL analyst is waiting for some more information to draw conclusion on
rating/target.
NA = Not Available or Not Applicable. The information is not available for display or is not applicable.
NM = Not Meaningful. The information is not meaningful and is therefore excluded.
Research Analyst has not served as an officer, director or employee of Subject Company
One year Price history of the daily closing price of the securities covered in this note is available at www.nseindia.com and www.economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/stock-quotes. (Choose name of
company in the list browse companies and select 1 year in icon YTD in the price chart)
IndiaNivesh Securities Private Limited
601 & 602, Sukh Sagar, N. S. Patkar Marg, Girgaum Chowpatty, Mumbai 400 007.
Tel: (022) 66188800 / Fax: (022) 66188899
e-mail: [email protected] | Website: www.indianivesh.in
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