PDF 1.59 MB - Jones Energy

Scotia Howard Weil Energy Conference
March 2015
Forward-Looking & Other Cautionary Statements
Th e followin g p resen tation in clu d es forward -lookin g statemen ts . Th ese statemen t s relate to fu tu re even ts, su ch as an ticip ated reven u es, earn in gs, b u sin ess
strategie s, comp etitiv e p osition or oth er asp ects of ou r op eration s or op eratin g resu lts or th e in d u stries or markets in wh ic h we op erate or p articip ate in gen eral,
in clu d in g gu id an ce regard in g th e timin g an d location of ad d ition al rigs, resu lts of th e Comp an y 's d rillin g p rogram, 2015 cap ital b u d get, th e p rojected d rillin g an d
comp letion cost savin gs an d th e resu ltan t imp act on 2015 cap ital b u d get, p rojected in tern al rates of retu rn , resu lts of ou r h ed gin g p rogram, th e ab ility to fu n d
th e Comp an y ’s 2015 cap ital exp en d itu re b u d get largely with free cash , p rojection s regard in g total p rod u ction , average d aily p rod u ction , p ercen tag e liq u id s,
op eratin g exp en ses , p rod u ction taxes as a p ercen tage of reven u e, G& A exp en ses an d cap ital exp en d itu re levels for 2015. Actu al ou tcomes an d resu lts may d iffer
materially from wh at is exp ress ed or forecast in su ch forward -lookin g statemen ts . Th ese statemen t s are n ot gu aran tees of fu tu re p erforman ce an d in volve certain
risks, u n certain ties an d assu mp tion s th at may p rove to b e in correct an d are d ifficu lt to p red ict su ch as oil an d gas p rices; op eration al h azard s an d d rillin g risks;
p oten tial failu re to ach ieve, an d p oten tial d elay s in ach ievin g exp ected reserv e s or p rod u ction levels from existin g an d fu tu re oil an d gas d evelop men t p rojects;
u n su ccessfu l exp loratory activities; u n exp ecte d cost in creases or tech n ical d ifficu lties in con stru ctin g, main tain in g or mod i fy in g comp an y facilities; p oten tial
liab ility for remed ial action s u n d er existin g or fu tu re en viron men tal regu lation s or from p en d in g or fu tu re litigation ; limit ed access to cap ital or sign ifican tly
h igh er cost of cap ital related to illiq u id ity or u n certain ty in th e d omestic or in tern ation al fin an cial markets; gen eral d omestic an d in tern ation al econ omic an d
p olitical con d ition s, as well as ch an ges in tax, en viron men tal an d oth er laws ap p licab le to Jon es E n ergy ’s b u sin ess an d oth er econ omic, b u sin ess, comp etitiv e
an d /or regu latory factors affectin g Jon es E n ergy ’s b u sin ess gen erally as set forth in Jon es E n ergy ’s filin gs with th e Secu ritie s an d E xch an ge Commission (SE C). We
cau tion y ou n ot to p lace u n d u e relian ce on ou r forward -lookin g statemen ts, wh ich are on ly as of th e d ate of th is p resen tation or as oth erwise in d icated , an d we
exp ressly d isclaim an y resp on sib ility for u p d atin g su ch in formation .
Th e SE C req u ires oil an d gas comp an ies, in th eir filin gs with th e SE C, to d isclose p roved reserve s, wh ich are th ose q u an titie s o f oil an d gas, wh ich , b y an aly sis of
geoscien c e an d en gin eerin g d ata, can b e estimated with reason ab le certain ty to b e econ omically p rod u cib le—from a given d ate forward , from kn own reservoir s,
an d u n d er existin g econ omic con d ition s (u sin g u n weigh ted average 12-mon th first d ay of th e mon th p rices), op eratin g meth od s, an d govern m en t regu lation s—
p rior to th e time at wh ich con tracts p rovid in g th e righ t to op erate exp ire, u n less evid en ce in d icates th at ren ewal is reason ab ly certain , regard les s of wh eth er
d etermin isti c or p rob ab ilistic meth od s are u sed for th e estimation . Th e SE C also p ermits th e d isclosu re of sep arate estimates of p rob ab le or p ossib le reserve s
th at meet SE C d efin ition s for su ch reserv es , h owever, we cu rren tly d o n ot d isclose p rob ab le or p ossib le reserve s in ou r SE C f ilin gs.
Factors affectin g u ltimate recovery in clu d e ou r ab ility to acq u ire th e acreage we are targetin g an d th e scop e of ou r on goin g d rillin g p rogram, wh ich will b e
d irectly affected b y th e availab ility of cap ital, d rillin g an d p rod u ction costs, availab ility of d rillin g service s an d eq u ip m en t, d rillin g resu lts, lease exp iration s,
tran sp ortation con strain ts, regu latory ap p rovals an d oth er factors; an d actu al d rillin g resu lts, in clu d in g geological an d mec h an ical factors affectin g recovery
rates. E stimates of resou rce p oten tial an d d rillin g location s may ch an ge sign ifican tly as Jon es E n ergy p u rsu es acq u isition s. In ad d ition , ou r p rod u ction forecasts
an d exp ectation s for fu tu re p eriod s are d ep en d en t u p on man y assu mp tion s, in clu d in g estimates of p rod u ction d eclin e rates from existin g wells an d th e
u n d ertakin g an d ou tcome of fu tu re d rillin g activity , wh ich may b e affected b y sign ifican t commod ity p rice d eclin es or d rillin g c ost in creases. U.S. in vestors are
u rged to con sid er closely th e oil an d gas d isclosu res in ou r Form 10-K an d oth er rep orts an d filin gs with th e SE C. Cop ies are availab le from th e SE C an d from th e
Jon es E n ergy web site.
1
Jones Energy Overview
NYSE Ticker:
JONE
Share Price:
$8.64
Market Cap:
$530 million
Enterprise
Value:
$1.4 billion
Shares
Outstanding:
61.6 million
Avg Daily
Production:
23.2 MBoepd
Proved
Reserves:
115.3 MMBoe
Liquidity:
~$500 million
Anadarko Basin
Key Formation: Cleveland
Cleveland Production: 17.0 MBoe/d
Arkoma Basin
Key Formation: Woodford
Woodford Production: 4.0 MBoe/d
Austin
Field Office
Note: Proved reserves as of 12/31/14. Average daily production for FY 2014. Liquidity and share price as of March 20, 2015.
2
Prepared for Today and Focused on the Future
 Laser focus on execution and cost
 ~25% AFE reduction since December 2014
 Strong hedging protects 2015 & beyond
 ~90% of 2015 oil and gas volumes hedged
 Flexible drilling program
 High HBP position offers optionality
 Proven cost leader in the MidCon
 2015 program focused on Cleveland
 Solid balance sheet
 Tapped capital markets in February 2015
3
Well Results Prove Cleveland is a World Class Resource Play
 Strong results across Jones Cleveland acreage
TOP 10 JONE CLEVELAND WELLS1
Well
Elmer Graves 615-1H
Peyton Ranch 417-1H
Kelln 65-2H
Buccaneers 11-2H
Hager Trust 616-2H
Robert Doyle B 614-3H
Robert Doyle B 614-4H
Peyton Ranch 417-2H
Elmer Graves 615-5H
Hager Trust 616-3H
Average
IP30
(Boe/d)
1,432
1,251
1,116
1,032
933
919
912
894
838
825
1,015
Well Location
JONE Acreage
1
Top 10 Jones Cleveland wells by IP30 with first production since the beginning of 2014.
4
Solid Growth in 2014
EBITDAX
Avg Daily Production
23.2
25.0
$301.4
$300
17.0
$ in millions
MBoepd
20.0
$350
15.0
10.0
5.0
$250
$200
$205.0
$150
$100
$50
$0
2013
2013
2014
Oil Reserves
Proved Reserves
140.0
89.0
millions of barrels
MMBoe
100.0
80.0
60.0
40.0
20.0
-
2013
2014
27.7
30.0
115.3
120.0
2014
25.0
20.0
16.7
15.0
10.0
5.0
2013
2014
5
Focused on the Cleveland in 2015
 3 rigs currently running

AFE has dropped ~25% since
December 2014

Targeting addition of 2 rigs in 2Q15
~2,500 Cleveland locations remain
Jones Cleveland Locations
Gross: 704
Net: 477
 >30% oil uplift achieved

Frack optimization complete

33 stage OH completions provide
uplift plus savings
 High HBP position

>80% HBP

Only 9 out of 65 wells will be drilled
in 2015 to hold leases
 2014 leasing added 21,000 net acres
`
2015 Drilling Targets
JONE Acreage
6
Cost Reductions for 33 Stage Open Hole Wells
 $900,000 in cost reductions since 4Q 2014
$4.0
$3.8
AFE in millions
$3.0
$2.9
“All-in” Cleveland AFE
Achieved Reductions: $900,000
Key Categories:
Frack Services
Rig Rates
Fuel
Cement
Bits
Drilling Fluid
$2.0
$1.0
$2.6
47%
29%
45%
48%
32%
32%
Achieved Cost Reductions
Targeted Reductions: $300,000
Key Categories:
Frack Services
Rig Rates
Locations
Casing
Targeted Reductions
35%
10%
30%
25%
$Previous AFE
Current AFE
Next Target AFE
7
Impact of Cost Reductions on Returns
Cleveland Drilling and Completion AFE
Current
$2,650
Price
$2,850
$3,100
$3,800
Well level internal rates of return
$70.00 / $4.00
58%
48%
38%
21%
$65.00 / $3.50
44%
36%
28%
15%
$60.00 / $3.25
34%
27%
21%
10%
$55.00 / $3.00
25%
20%
15%
6%
$50.00 / $2.75
17%
13%
9%
3%
Note: Based on JONE Cleveland decline curve. IRRs reflect JONE potential cost reductions.
8
Cleveland Frack Optimization Completed
60
Number of Frack Stages
43
Open Hole Completion
33
Perf and Plug Completion
Sliding Sleeve Completion
20
20
8-12
12
4-5
2004 - 2006
2007 - 2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
9
Optimization Drives Oil Uplift
Oil Uplift Comparison
Oil Rate (bpd)
1,000
Oil (Mbbls)
Gas (MMcf)
NGL (Mbbls)
Total (Mboe)
20 stage
81
541
70
241
EUR
33 stage
112
545
71
274
+38% increase
100
10
0
50
100
150
Days
200
250
300
350
2015 20 Stage Type Curve
Production Data from Wells with Over 20 Stages
2015 33 Stage Type Curve
10
Uplift Has Created Significant Value
 $270,000 investment translates to:

>$1,200,000 in incremental oil revenue per location (at $55 WTI)

>$450,000 in PV-10 value per location (at $55 WTI)
 Value accelerates as oil price increases
Incremental Oil Revenue (1)
Cleveland Well Cost Comparison
$3.0
$1,800
$1,600
>$1,200,000
oil revenue
$2.0
$1.5
$1.0
20 stage well
33 stage well
$700
>$450,000
PV-10 value
$1,400
$ in thousands
$2.5
$800
$1,200
$600
$ in thousands
~$270,000
increase
$ in millions
Incremental PV-10 Value
$1,000
$800
$600
$500
$400
$300
$400
$200
$200
$100
$0
$0
$55
$65
(1) Incremental oil revenue for a 33 stage open-hole well as compared to a 20 stage open-hole well for full productive life of the well. Assumes 2015 Cleveland type curve.
$75
$55
$65
$75
11
Commodity Price Realizations - Steady and Predictable
 Better differentials than many other regions
 2014 average differentials (inclusive of
transport):
 Oil: ~$4 per bbl differential to WTI
 Gas: ~$0.70 per MMBtu differential to HH
Valero Pipeline
Piper
 Oil gathering system for Cleveland production
to begin service in 2Q15
Arnett
Cleveland Oil Gathering System
JONE Acreage
Reydon
12
LOE and G&A Costs Among the Best
LOE per Boe
$12
$25
$10
$20
$8
$15
$6
$10
$4
$5
$2
$0
$0
1
2
JONE
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
$30
Note: LOE and Cash G&A per Boe calculated on full-year 2014 basis. LOE excludes ad valorem and production taxes. Peers include AREX, BBG, BCEI,
CRK, CRZO, CWEI, FANG, GDP, LPI, MHR, MPO, MTDR, PDCE, PQ, REN, REXX, ROSE, SFY, and SGY.
1
2
JONE
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
Cash G&A per Boe
13
Hedges Support Value
 Hedges provide security in an uncertain commodity price environment
 ~90% of estimated 2015 oil and gas production hedged at $85/bbl and $4.50 per Mcf

>70% of total production hedged through 2016 at similar prices
Fair value of hedges as a % of market cap
50%
45%
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
1 JONE 2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Note: Peers include AREX, BBG, BCEI, CRK, CRZO, CWEI, FANG, GDP, LPI, MHR, MTDR, PDCE, PE, PQ, REXX, ROSE, SFY, and SGY. Market cap as of March 19, 2015. Fair
value of hedges as of December 31, 2014.
11
13
14
15
17
18
19
20
14
Hedges Protect 2015 Revenue
Hedging Impact on 2015 Revenue
100%
Only ~5% change
in total revenue
due to hedges
Projected Revenue
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
$60 oil / $3.25 gas
$30 oil / $2 gas
Unhedged Revenue
$10 oil / $1 gas
Hedge Gain
15
Ready for Market Opportunities with Strong Balance Sheet
 $500 million in available liquidity1
 90% of debt outstanding matures in >7 years
 2.8x net debt/EBITDAX for trailing twelve months2
Debt Maturities Summary
$600
$ in millions
$500
$400
$300
Undrawn credit
facility1
$200
$100
$0
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
1
2
Liquidity and undrawn credit facility as of March 20, 2015
Based on net debt as of year-end 2014 and full-year 2014 EBITDAX
16
Jones Energy – Prepared for Today and Focused on the Future
Mid-Continent Focus
 History of success for over 26 years
 Expertise creates opportunities
Operational Excellence
 “Fit for purpose” operations
 A leader in cost management
Solid Financial Position
 Plenty of liquidity; spending within cash flow
 Substantial hedges at favorable prices
Focused on Value Creation
 Oil uplift drives returns
 Will ramp activity as returns dictate
Substantial Footprint with Running Room
 Lots to do in our own backyard
 Stacked pays provide growth opportunities
17
APPENDIX
2015 Cleveland Type Curve
 Key statistics shown below for 2015 Cleveland type curve (274 Mboe EUR)

Cleveland 3P EUR of 305 Mboe, but with a higher gas component
Key Statistic:
Oil
Gas
NGL
Total
IP
IP30
IP90
Bbl/d
228
189
Mcf/d
641
612
Bbl/d
83
80
Boe/d
418
371
Cumulative
Production
1 Year
5 Year
EUR
% of Total
Mbbl
36
68
112
41.0%
MMcf
141
294
545
33.1%
Mbbl
18
38
71
25.9%
Mboe
78
155
274
100.0%
19
The Anadarko Basin – Prolific History with Stacked Pay Potential
 Stacked pay zones provide significant development opportunities
Current Target
Formations
Tonkawa
Sandstone
Lease Acreage: ~122,000
Gross Locations: 324
Cleveland
Sandstone
Lease Acreage: ~163,000
Gross Locations: 704
Marmaton
Sandstone
Lease Acreage: ~97,000
Gross Locations: 566
JONE Acreage
20
Tonkawa – An Untapped Opportunity
 Drilled 6 wells in 2014

Target AFE of $3.5 million

Drilling program halted due to oil drop

Ready to scale when economics dictate
 Industry continues to derisk acreage

Extensive vertical production footprint

Over 500 horizontal wells drilled by industry
Tonkawa
2.9 million acres
Average formation depth:
Tonkawa: 7,500 feet
Cleveland: 8,500 feet
Marmaton: 9,000 feet
 Still underdeveloped compared to Cleveland

Jones has identified 324 gross (190 net)
locations as of year-end 2014

Over 3,000 additional play locations
 Cleveland technical expertise derisks future
Tonkawa development
JONE Acreage
21
Marmaton Shows Promise As Others Drill Ahead
Marmaton Lime



1.0 million acres
Marmaton lies just below the Cleveland

Majority of Jones Anadarko acreage lies within the
Marmaton fairway

Results by other operators indicate EURs and
production profiles on par with other targets in
the basin
Marmaton Sand
2.1 million acres
No locations booked in 1P

Jones has identified 566 gross drilling locations
(334 net) as of year-end 2014

Over 2,500 additional locations in play fairway
Similar geology to Cleveland

Often referred to as “Lower Cleveland”

Completed geological study across 5 counties
Average formation depth:
Tonkawa: 7,500 feet
Cleveland: 8,500 feet
Marmaton: 9,000 feet
JONE Acreage
22
Able to Ramp Activity as Margins Dictate
 Operational flexibility allows us to ramp activity up and down
Drilling History by Formation
Reduced 2015
activity with
focus on the
Cleveland
140
Brown Dolomite
Tonkawa
120
Dropped all rigs in 4Q08, but
ramped activity in 2010 after
prices recovered
100
Cleveland
80
Granite Wash
Morrow
60
Woodford
40
20
0
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
23
2015 Full Year Guidance and 1Q Production Guidance
Total Production (MMBoe)
Average Daily Production (MBoe/d)
Oil (MBbls/d)
Natural Gas (MMcf/d)
NGLs (MBbls/d)
2015E
1Q15E
7.9 – 8.7
2.15 – 2.25
21.7 – 23.7
24.0 – 25.0
6.6 – 7.1
7.4 – 7.6
54.8 – 60.3
60.0 – 65.0
6.0 – 6.6
6.6 – 6.8
Lease Operating Expense ($/Boe)
$4.75 – $5.25
Production/Ad Valorem Taxes (% of Revenue)
6.5% – 7.5%
Cash G&A Expense ($mm)
$25.0 – $28.0
Total Capital Expenditures
$210.0
24
Hedge Positions
2015
1Q
Crude Swaps (Mbbl)
2Q
2016
3Q
4Q
1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
572
613
595
572
492
465
457
411
$85.48
$82.93
$84.60
$84.05
$83.53
$83.67
$83.64
$83.35
5,232
5,095
4,740
4,636
4,340
4,130
3,960
3,800
$4.49
$4.41
$4.47
$4.45
$4.65
$4.45
$4.45
$4.37
Ethane
119
110
101
92
15
14
12
12
Propane
172
226
192
168
102
102
102
102
Iso Butane
18
15
15
12
6
6
4
-
Butane
50
45
42
41
12
11
9
6
N. Gasoline
63
60
57
53
24
22
21
16
Total NGL
422
456
407
366
159
155
148
136
Ethane
$0.27
$0.27
$0.27
$0.27
$0.21
$0.21
$0.21
$0.21
Propane
$0.98
$0.85
$0.89
$0.93
$0.56
$0.56
$0.56
$0.56
Iso Butane
$1.29
$1.23
$1.23
$1.25
$1.30
$1.30
$1.39
N/A
Butane
$1.21
$1.21
$1.21
$1.20
$1.26
$1.28
$1.32
$1.26
N. Gasoline
$1.94
$1.94
$1.95
$1.95
$1.99
$1.88
$1.89
$1.82
Hedge Price / Bbl
Natural Gas Swaps (MMcf)
Hedge Price / Mcf
NGLs (MBbl)
Hedge Price ($/gal)
25
NGL Hedge Position Detail
2015
1Q
Mt. Belvieu NGLs (MBbl)
Ethane
Propane
Iso Butane
Butane
N. Gasoline
Sub-Total Mt. Belvieu
Hedge Price ($/gal)
Ethane
Propane
Iso Butane
Butane
N. Gasoline
Conway NGLs (MBbl)
Ethane
Propane
Iso Butane
Butane
N. Gasoline
Sub-Total Conway
Hedge Price ($/gal)
Ethane
Propane
Iso Butane
Butane
N. Gasoline
2Q
2016
3Q
4Q
3Q
2Q
1Q
4Q
59
42
6
17
27
151
55
42
3
15
24
139
50
39
3
15
24
131
46
39
3
16
23
127
3
6
18
27
3
6
18
27
3
6
18
27
3
13
16
$0.34
$1.01
$1.55
$1.37
$2.04
$0.34
$1.01
$1.55
$1.36
$2.06
$0.34
$1.01
$1.55
$1.36
$2.06
$0.34
$1.01
$1.55
$1.31
$2.05
N/A
N/A
$1.48
$1.42
$2.09
N/A
N/A
$1.48
$1.42
$1.93
N/A
N/A
$1.48
$1.42
$1.93
N/A
N/A
N/A
$1.42
$1.85
60
130
12
33
36
271
55
184
12
30
36
317
51
153
12
27
33
276
46
129
9
25
30
239
15
102
3
6
6
132
14
102
3
5
4
128
12
102
1
3
3
121
12
102
3
3
120
$0.20
$0.98
$1.16
$1.13
$1.87
$0.20
$0.81
$1.16
$1.13
$1.87
$0.20
$0.86
$1.16
$1.13
$1.86
$0.20
$0.90
$1.15
$1.13
$1.87
$0.21
$0.56
$1.13
$1.11
$1.70
$0.21
$0.56
$1.13
$1.11
$1.70
$0.21
$0.56
$1.13
$1.11
$1.70
$0.21
$0.56
N/A
$1.11
$1.70
26
NGL Barrel Component Detail
Cleveland
Conway
Cleveland
(80% of forecasted 2015 NGL production)
Ethane
Propane
Butane
Iso Butane
Natural Gasoline
Woodford
Basket
37%
34%
12%
5%
12%
Mont Belvieu
(20% of forecasted 2015 NGL production)
Ethane*
Propane
Butane
Iso Butane
Natural Gasoline
Basket
13%
45%
19%
5%
18%
Natural Gasoline – 12%
Iso Butane – 5%
Butane – 12%
Propane – 34%
Ethane – 37%
Woodford
Natural Gasoline – 18%
Iso Butane – 5%
Butane – 19%
Propane – 45%
Ethane – 13%
*Assumes ethane rejection in the Woodford
27
Corporate Structure
 Updated for recent capital markets transactions

Stock trading liquidity has improved significantly post-recent transactions
Metalmark,
Management
& Other Investors
59% of total economic
interest of JEH LLC
Class B Common Stock
59% of voting power in
Jones Energy, Inc.
Class A Common Stock
41% of voting power in
Jones Energy, Inc.
Public
Shareholders
Jones Energy, Inc.
(NYSE: JONE)
41% of total economic
interest of JEH LLC
Jones Energy
Holdings, LLC
(JEH LLC)
28