Date
Intercontinental
Wind Power Congress, April 2015
Uncertainty
Maps: Making the Most of your
Name of Presenter
TitleMeasurement
of Presenter
Campaign
awstruepower.com
Albany, New York | Barcelona, Spain | Bangalore, India | Sao Paulo, Brazil | awstruepower.com | +34 93 448 72 65
©2015 AWS Truepower
Introduction
Generally speaking:
Wind Flow
Model
Energy &
Uncertainty
Estimates
Project
Finance
Aim of this work:
• Develop conceptual framework for understanding & objectively
quantifying Wind Flow Modeling Uncertainty (WFMU)
• Present and illustrate the benefits of this approach in two real wind
projects.
Albany, New York | Barcelona, Spain | Bangalore, India | Sao Paulo, Brazil | awstruepower.com | +34 93 448 72 65
©2015 AWS Truepower
Conceptual Framework (1)
Typical approach:
• Distance: turbines close to masts (< 2-3 km)  driver of WFMU
• Terrain complexity (WFMU varies across a site)  driver of WFMU
• Cross-predictions between masts  useful technique.
Proposed approach: WFMU driven more by “wind resource similarity” of
between points than by extrapolation distance; the more different two
points are in wind characteristics, the harder for the model to predict the
Target based on the Reference.
Albany, New York | Barcelona, Spain | Bangalore, India | Sao Paulo, Brazil | awstruepower.com | +34 93 448 72 65
©2015 AWS Truepower
Conceptual Framework (2)
Proposed measures of Wind Resource Similarity:
Speed Deviation:
Direction Deviation:
Proposed expression:
Where:
T: Target (WTG)
R: Reference (mast)
ND: number of dirs
f: frequency
v: wind speed
With A, B, C, D, E
fitted constants
Use an advanced Wind Flow Model to estimate the wind resource… but also
to estimate WFMU!
Advanced = which captures site variations of wind resource (SiteWind)
Applications: WFMU per turbine + Layout design to maximize P90 + Smart
measurements to minimize uncertainty (openWind)
Albany, New York | Barcelona, Spain | Bangalore, India | Sao Paulo, Brazil | awstruepower.com | +34 93 448 72 65
©2015 AWS Truepower
Test Case 1: 14km x 14km site with 4 masts
Orography
Uncertainty maps per mast
Albany, New York | Barcelona, Spain | Bangalore, India | Sao Paulo, Brazil | awstruepower.com | +34 93 448 72 65
©2015 AWS Truepower
Test Case 1: 14km x 14km site with 4 masts
4 Masts Uncertainty
Uncertainty maps per mast
Albany, New York | Barcelona, Spain | Bangalore, India | Sao Paulo, Brazil | awstruepower.com | +34 93 448 72 65
©2015 AWS Truepower
Test Case 2: Site with Complex Atmospheric Effects
Raw Wind Speed
(0.5 m/s bins)
Albany, New York | Barcelona, Spain | Bangalore, India | Sao Paulo, Brazil | awstruepower.com | +34 93 448 72 65
©2015 AWS Truepower
Test Case 2: Site with Complex Atmospheric Effects
Raw Wind Speed
(0.5 m/s bins)
Albany, New York | Barcelona, Spain | Bangalore, India | Sao Paulo, Brazil | awstruepower.com | +34 93 448 72 65
©2015 AWS Truepower
Test Case 2: Site with Complex Atmospheric Effects
Raw Wind Speed
(0.5 m/s bins)
Albany, New York | Barcelona, Spain | Bangalore, India | Sao Paulo, Brazil | awstruepower.com | +34 93 448 72 65
©2015 AWS Truepower
Test Case 2: Site with Complex Atmospheric Effects
Raw Wind Speed
(0.5 m/s bins)
Albany, New York | Barcelona, Spain | Bangalore, India | Sao Paulo, Brazil | awstruepower.com | +34 93 448 72 65
©2015 AWS Truepower
Thank You!
Santi Vila Moreno
[email protected]
Albany, New York | Barcelona, Spain | Bangalore, India | Sao Paulo, Brazil | awstruepower.com | +34 93 448 72 65
©2015 AWS Truepower