Using Uncertainty to Drive
Met Campaign Design
Scott Eichelberger
Wind Development Process
Page 2
© Vaisala
Project
Mapping
Initial Layout
Design
Met
Campaign
Design
Preliminary
Estimates
Collecting
Data
Technology
Selection
Risk
Reduction
Engineering
& Final
Design
Investment
4/10/2015
Wind Development Process
Page 3
© Vaisala
Project
Mapping
Initial Layout
Design
Met
Campaign
Design
Preliminary
Estimates
Collecting
Data
Technology
Selection
Risk
Reduction
Engineering
& Final
Design
Investment
4/10/2015
Preliminary Layout Design
 The value of the initial layout is
often overlooked. To guide future
decisions, a layout design at the
beginning of project development
is essential.
 Once turbine locations are defined,
then we can best determine how
and where we need to measure.
Page 4
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4/10/2015
Optimizing Met Campaigns
 Don’t just measure the windiest spot
 The met campaign needs to support
the turbine layout
 Using a comprehensive uncertainty
framework allows for accurate
estimations across multiple scenarios
Iteration Longitude Latitude Uncertainty
…
…
…
…
37
118.64687 28.51612
14.2%
38
118.63723 28.51227
13.9%
39
118.64281 28.50440
14.3%
40
118.64654 28.48939
14.6%
41
118.64631 28.49810
13.7%
…
…
…
Met campaign iterations
Page 5
© Vaisala
4/10/2015
…
Optimizing Met Campaigns
 Don’t just measure the windiest spot
 The met campaign needs to support
the turbine layout
 Using a comprehensive uncertainty
framework allows for accurate
estimations across multiple scenarios
Iteration Longitude Latitude Uncertainty
…
…
…
…
37
118.64687 28.51612
14.2%
38
118.63723 28.51227
13.9%
39
118.64281 28.50440
14.3%
40
118.64654 28.48939
14.6%
41
118.64631 28.49810
13.7%
…
…
…
Met campaign iterations
Page 6
© Vaisala
4/10/2015
…
Comprehensive Uncertainty Framework
• Models every aspect of the analytic process to provide scientific,
objective, financeable view of project risk.
• Provides the most articulate view of risk available in the market.
Page
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Comprehensive Uncertainty Framework
 Comprehensive uncertainty framework models every aspect of the
analytic process to provide scientific, objective, financeable view of
project risk.
 Full consideration of the met tower configuration: multiple sensor levels,
mounting uncertainties, redundant anemometers
 Properly account for remote sensing devices
 Compute uncertainties in concert with each other: understand
interdependencies between uncertainty categories
Page
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Risk assessment optimizes
measurement campaign…
Turbine uncertainty: Bigger bubble = bigger uncertainty
Page
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Risk assessment optimizes
measurement campaign…
Turbine uncertainty: Bigger bubble = bigger uncertainty
Page
© Vaisala
Risk assessment optimizes
measurement campaign…
Turbine uncertainty: Bigger bubble = bigger uncertainty
Page
© Vaisala
Risk assessment optimizes
measurement campaign…
Turbine uncertainty: Bigger bubble = bigger uncertainty
Page
© Vaisala
Risk assessment optimizes
measurement campaign…
Turbine uncertainty: Bigger bubble = bigger uncertainty
Page
© Vaisala
Risk assessment optimizes
measurement campaign…
Turbine uncertainty: Bigger bubble = bigger uncertainty
Page
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Uncertainty is a communication tool to
help clients manage risk
16%
14%
i
12%
ii
10%
iii
iv
8%
Status Quo
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Recommendations
Jan-16
Nov-15
Sep-15
Jul-15
May-15
Mar-15
Jan-15
Nov-14
Sep-14
Jul-14
May-14
Mar-14
6%
Suggested Approach
 Start with the end in mind (i.e. reducing uncertainty of your
assessment)
 Create a turbine layout to help quantify decisions
 Choose measurement locations with the aim of reducing
uncertainty, not measuring the windiness spot
 Use an appropriately complex uncertainty framework to guide
decisions
 Move forward with met campaign having confidence that uncertainty
levels will hit the desired target
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17
Thank You