Scott EICHELBERGER Offering Manager
Using Uncertainty to Drive Met Campaign Design Scott Eichelberger Wind Development Process Page 2 © Vaisala Project Mapping Initial Layout Design Met Campaign Design Preliminary Estimates Collecting Data Technology Selection Risk Reduction Engineering & Final Design Investment 4/10/2015 Wind Development Process Page 3 © Vaisala Project Mapping Initial Layout Design Met Campaign Design Preliminary Estimates Collecting Data Technology Selection Risk Reduction Engineering & Final Design Investment 4/10/2015 Preliminary Layout Design The value of the initial layout is often overlooked. To guide future decisions, a layout design at the beginning of project development is essential. Once turbine locations are defined, then we can best determine how and where we need to measure. Page 4 © Vaisala 4/10/2015 Optimizing Met Campaigns Don’t just measure the windiest spot The met campaign needs to support the turbine layout Using a comprehensive uncertainty framework allows for accurate estimations across multiple scenarios Iteration Longitude Latitude Uncertainty … … … … 37 118.64687 28.51612 14.2% 38 118.63723 28.51227 13.9% 39 118.64281 28.50440 14.3% 40 118.64654 28.48939 14.6% 41 118.64631 28.49810 13.7% … … … Met campaign iterations Page 5 © Vaisala 4/10/2015 … Optimizing Met Campaigns Don’t just measure the windiest spot The met campaign needs to support the turbine layout Using a comprehensive uncertainty framework allows for accurate estimations across multiple scenarios Iteration Longitude Latitude Uncertainty … … … … 37 118.64687 28.51612 14.2% 38 118.63723 28.51227 13.9% 39 118.64281 28.50440 14.3% 40 118.64654 28.48939 14.6% 41 118.64631 28.49810 13.7% … … … Met campaign iterations Page 6 © Vaisala 4/10/2015 … Comprehensive Uncertainty Framework • Models every aspect of the analytic process to provide scientific, objective, financeable view of project risk. • Provides the most articulate view of risk available in the market. Page © Vaisala Comprehensive Uncertainty Framework Comprehensive uncertainty framework models every aspect of the analytic process to provide scientific, objective, financeable view of project risk. Full consideration of the met tower configuration: multiple sensor levels, mounting uncertainties, redundant anemometers Properly account for remote sensing devices Compute uncertainties in concert with each other: understand interdependencies between uncertainty categories Page © Vaisala Risk assessment optimizes measurement campaign… Turbine uncertainty: Bigger bubble = bigger uncertainty Page © Vaisala Risk assessment optimizes measurement campaign… Turbine uncertainty: Bigger bubble = bigger uncertainty Page © Vaisala Risk assessment optimizes measurement campaign… Turbine uncertainty: Bigger bubble = bigger uncertainty Page © Vaisala Risk assessment optimizes measurement campaign… Turbine uncertainty: Bigger bubble = bigger uncertainty Page © Vaisala Risk assessment optimizes measurement campaign… Turbine uncertainty: Bigger bubble = bigger uncertainty Page © Vaisala Risk assessment optimizes measurement campaign… Turbine uncertainty: Bigger bubble = bigger uncertainty Page © Vaisala Uncertainty is a communication tool to help clients manage risk 16% 14% i 12% ii 10% iii iv 8% Status Quo Page © Vaisala Recommendations Jan-16 Nov-15 Sep-15 Jul-15 May-15 Mar-15 Jan-15 Nov-14 Sep-14 Jul-14 May-14 Mar-14 6% Suggested Approach Start with the end in mind (i.e. reducing uncertainty of your assessment) Create a turbine layout to help quantify decisions Choose measurement locations with the aim of reducing uncertainty, not measuring the windiness spot Use an appropriately complex uncertainty framework to guide decisions Move forward with met campaign having confidence that uncertainty levels will hit the desired target Page © Vaisala 17 Thank You
© Copyright 2024