1. No category

UNITED NATIONS
NON-GOVERNMENTAL LIAISON SERVICE
OCCASIONAL PAPER
A f r ic a , 1975-95:
T h e P o litical E c o n o m y of B oom ,
D e clin e , C o n flic t, S u r v iv a l - a n d Revival?
by
R e g in a ld H e rb o ld Green
T h i s is t h e f o u r t h in t h e s e r i e s of
N G L S O C C A S I O N A L P AP E RS
on c u r r e n t d e v e l o p m e n t i ssues.
They are p ub lish e d for
d e v e lo p m e n t e d u ca to rs and d e v e lo p m e n t action NGOs,
w h o a r e w e l c o m e to use t h e m in t h e i r o w n p u b l i c a t i o n s .
P l e a s e c r e d i t s o u r c e a n d s e n d NGLS a copy.
A B O U T THE A U TH O R
R e g i n a l d H e r b o l d G r e e n (BA, LID W h it m a n College, MA, PhD Harvard)
is a political e c o n o m i s t w h o s e topical c o n c e n t ra ti o n s are de ve lo p me n t
policy and the hu m an con dit ion of p o o r people, str u c tu ra l adjustment,
ec o n o m ic c o o p e r a ti o n am on g de ve lop ing cou nt rie s, th e hu m an and
e c o n o m i c costs of w a r in sub -S aha ran Africa and ex te rn a l debt. His
area con cer n s focus on Sou th er n Africa (inc lud ing Nam ib ia ), subSah ar an Africa mo re g e n e r a ll y and the Phi li ppi ne s. He is a consultant
to several i nte rna ti ona l agencies and to CIIR, WCC and ICLID.
The views expressed in this OCCASIONAL PAPER are those of the author. They
do not necessarily reflect the views of NGLS or any other part of the United
Nations system. The desi gnati ons used do not imply the expression of any
opi ni on whatsoever on the part of NGLS c oncerni ng the legal status of any
country, area or t erritory or of its authorities, or concerning the del imit ati on of
its frootiers.
P u b lis h e d in A u g u s t 1991 by:
UN N o n - G o v e r n m e n t a l L i a i s o n S e r v i c e
Palais des Nations
CH-1211 G e n e v a 10
Switzerland
CONTENTS
Page
Inquest. A u to p s y or Inquiry?
To U N P A A E R D a n d A f t e r
1
Fifteen Years - Largely Wasted?
4
Public Sector Capacity:
8
Security. G overnance. Participation
S e c t o r a l B o t t l e n e c k s a nd T r a n s f o r m a t i o n N e e d s
10
Poverty:
13
Access, Productivity and People
External Economic Rela tionship s:
Pessimistic P roblematic?
17
U N P A A E R D Revisited
19
D o e s A f r i c a Ha v e an E c o n o m i c F u t u r e ?
23
A n I n t e r n a t i o n a l A g e n d a f o r t he 1990s?
25
Envoi
35
B ib lio grap h y
37
R a b b i t w h a t a r e y o u d oi ng?
I ' m g o i n g to k i l l t h e e l e p h a n t .
C a n y o u r e a l l y do that?
Well, I ' l l t r y . .. a n d t r y a g a i n !
- W a s u k u m a Proverb
Inquest, A u to p s y or Inquiry?
To U N P A A E R D a n d A f t e r
Th e S e p t e m b e r 1991 i n q u e s t i nt o t he U n i t e d N a t i o n s P r o g r a m m e of A c t i o n f or
A f r i c a n E c o n o m i c R e c o v e r y a n d D e v e l o p m e n t , 1986-90, ( U N P A A E R D ) , based
on t h e O A U ' s A f r i c a n P r i o r i t y P r o g r a m m e f o r E c o n o m i c R e c o n s t r u c t i o n
( A PPE R) , w i l l be a n o t h e r r e v i e w of t h e past, a n o t h e r r e v i s e d r e - e v a l u a t i o n of
t r e n d s a n d c a u s e s , a n o t h e r set of p r o g n o s t i c a t i o n s of t h e f u t u r e a n d a n o t h e r
r o u n d of p r e s c r i p t i o n s f o r w a y s a n d m e a n s .
T h i s is b e c o m i n g a s e m i ­
d e c e n n i a l e x e r c i s e - f e s t i v a l h a r d l y s e e m s an a p p r o p r i a t e t e r m - b e g i n n i n g in
1979-81, r e p e a t e d in 1984-86 a n d n o w a g a i n o v e r 1989-91.
The most
f a v o u r a b l e v e r d i c t s on t he f i r s t t w o e x e r c i s e s a r e t h a t t h e y s h e d s o m e light
on s o m e p r o b l e m s , p r o p o s e d g r a b - b a g s of p i l l s ( s o m e a p p r o p r i a t e , a n d s ome
a k i n to b l e e d i n g m a l a r i a p a t i e n t s ) a n d , p o s s i b l y , p r e v e n t e d a w i d e s p r e a d ca­
t a s t r o p h e f r o m b e c o m i n g a g e n e r a l c a t a c l y s m . T h e s e n s e of d e j a vu a nd the
s c e p t i c i s m s - f o r v a r y i n g r e a s o n s - as to t h e v a l u e , e i t h e r of t h e r e v i e w s or
of t h e s t r a t e g i e s t h e y e v o k e d , a r e d e p r e s s i n g l y w i d e s p r e a d .
In 1979 t h e A f r i c a n S tat es w e r e ( o d d l y , as t h e y w e r e at t h e e n d of t h e i r best
a v e r a g e G DP g r o w t h p e r i o d ) c o n c e r n e d t ha t g r o w t h w a s t o o s l o w a n d (with
m o r e i n s i g h t ) t ha t it w a s n e i t h e r b e c o m i n g m o r e s e l f - s u s t a i n i n g n o r t r a n s ­
f o r m in g e ith e r p ro d u c tio n and tra de o r p o v e rty levels.
The sub-Saharan
A f r i c a n ( SSA) m e m b e r s of t h e W o r l d B a n k a s k e d f o r a s t u d y o n h o w to o v e r ­
c o m e t h e s e l i m i t a t i o n s . Th e 1981 B e r g R e p o r t (A c c e l e r a t e d D e v e l o p m e n t )
r a t h e r i n a c c u r a t e l y w r o t e off t h e w h o l e of t h e 1970s as a n e c o n o m i c f ai lure
a n d c o r r e c t l y (if o n l y p a r t i a l l y f o r t h e r i g h t r e a s o n s ) f o r e c a s t i n c r e a s i n g p r e s ­
s u r e s in t h e 1980s. Its p r e s c r i p t i o n s f o r c u r i n g t h e w e a k n e s s e s it p e r c e i v e d
w e r e s o m e w h a t e c le c t i c , but t h e c u t t i n g e d g e w a s l i b e r a l i s a t i o n of t rade
l i n k e d t o r e d u c t i o n of s t at e c o n s u m p t i o n in a c o n t e x t of a g e n e r a l f r e e i n g of
m a r k e t s d o m e s t i c a l l y , p l u s a d o u b l i n g of f o r e i g n a id e x t e r n a l l y .
B y t h e m i d - 1 9 8 0 s it w a s e v i d e n t t h a t m a c r o e c o n o m i c l i b e r a l i s a t i o n plus
I M F - s t y l e d e m a n d c o m p r e s s i o n w e r e , by t h e m s e l v e s , u n a c c e p t a b l e to many
A f r i c a n S ta te s , w e r e f r e q u e n t l y u n s u s t a i n a b l e w h e n t r i e d a n d d i d n ot lead to
s u b s t a n t i a l s t r u c t u r a l a d j u s t m e n t a n d a c c e l e r a t e d g r o w t h o n t h e s u p p l y side.
F u r t h e r , t he w o r l d e c o n o m i c e n v i r o n m e n t - in r e s p e c t to t e r m s of t r a d e ,
a v a i l a b i l i t y of c o m m e r c i a l a n d e x p o r t c r e d i t a n d aid f l o w s - w a s e v o l v i n g in
a v e r y u n f a v o u r a b l e w a y a n d c o n t r a r y to t he B a n k ' s 1981 p r o j e c t i o n s . The
A f r i c a n i n i t i a t i v e e m b o d i e d in A PP E R a n d l a r g e l y e n d o r s e d by t he UN as
U N P A A E R D at t he S pe c i a l S e s s i o n of t h e G e n e r a l A s s e m b l y in 1986, s o u g h t
t o s t r i k e a b a r g a i n : i n c r e a s e d A f r i c a n e f f i c i e n c y in r e s o u r c e use (wi th a r a t h e r
m o r e v a r i e d set of t o o l s t h a n t h e i n it ia l B a n k m o d e l , but o n e t hat t he B a n k ,
b y 1986, w a s at least w i l l i n g to c o n s i d e r in s p e c i f i c ca ses) in r e t u r n f o r a
s u b s t a n t i a l i n c r e a s e in soft r e s o u r c e t r a n s f e r s a n d s i g n i f i c a n t d e b t s e r v i c e
r e li e f .
B y t h e e n d of t he 1980s t h e f a i l u r e of t h e s t r a t e g y w a s c l e a r - o r t h o u g h t to
be c l e a r . First, t he d e c l i n e in GDP p e r c a p i t a h ad . at best, b e e n h a l t e d but
at a p r i c e in a u s t e r i t y a n d e ff ort t ha t left A f r i c a n ' a d j u s t m e n t f a t i g u e ' f ac e to
f a c e w i t h e x t e r n a l 'a id f a t i g u e ' . A b s o l u t e p o v e r t y had w o r s e n e d . W h i l e t he
B a n k a n d s o m e A f r i c a n St at es h ad i n t e g r a t e d h u m a n i n v e s t m e n t / b a s i c s e r ­
v i c e s a n d a b s o l u t e p o v e r t y r e d u c t i o n / p r o d u c t i o n by p o o r p e o p l e , into t h e i r
stra teg ic approaches, articulation p erfo rm a n c e lagged.
Second, re source
t r a n s f e r s a n d i n c r e a s e d e x p o r t e a r n i n g s , p l u s d e b t w r i t e - o f f s , had not, on
a v e r a g e , a l l o w e d s i g n i f i c a n t r e s t o r a t i o n of i m p o r t s . T h i r d , r e v i s e d e s t i m a t e s
of r e s o u r c e n e e d s (not least in t he B a n k ' s 1989 L o n g - T e r m P e r s p e c t i v e
S t u d y ) s h o w e d a nee d to d o u b l e a v e r a g e real p e r c a pi t a st at e s p e n d i n g in t he
p o o r e s t s t at es (and b o o st it at least a q u a r t e r on a v e r a g e ) , to c r e a t e an
e n a b lin g /s u s ta in in g climate fo r ente rp rise - and house ho ld -le d , pro du ctio n
g r o w t h . At t h e s a m e, t i m e s tat e b u d g e t a r y a n d n a t i o n a l s a v i n g c o n s t r a i n t s
w e r e - w i t h a f e w e x c e p t i o n s - s h o w i n g little s i g n s of s i g n i f i c a n t l o o s e n i n g .
F o u r t h , t h e b a n k r u p t c y of an e x p o r t s t r a t e g y b a s e d on m o r e of t he s a m e had
b e c o m e c l e a r (not least in t h e C o t e d ' l v o i r e - G h a n a s m a s h i n g of t he w o r l d
c o c o a m a r k e t a n d r e d u c t i o n of t h e i r o w n e x p o r t r e c e i p t s by a n e a r d o u b l i n g
of p r o d u c t i o n o v e r 1983-90). On t he o t h e r h a n d , no a l t e r n a t i v e had b ee n d e ­
s i g n e d ( n o r e v e n s e r i o u s l y s o u g h t , w h e t h e r by t h e B a n k, U N C T A D o r m o r e
t h a n t h r e e o r f o u r SSA g o v e r n m e n t s ) .
O n t h e U N P A A E R D ' b a r g a i n ' w h a t e v e r t h e d i v e r g e n c e s in d et a i l , a n u m b e r
of t h e ke y a c t o r s a nd a g e n c i e s ( s o m e w h a t d i s c r e e t l y ) a n d i n d e p e n d e n t c o m ­
m e n t a t o r s ( s o m e w h a t m o r e r o b u s t l y ) a g r e e t ha t :
•
M o s t S S A g o v e r n m e n t s d i d u n d e r t a k e s u b s t a n t i a l e c o n o m i c r e f o r m a nd
a d j u s t m e n t p r o g r a m m e s o ft en at v e r y h i g h s o ci al a n d p o l i t i c a l , as we ll
as e c o n o m i c , cost. The A f r i c a n s i d e of t h e b a r g a i n w a s - in m a n y c as es
- k ept ;
•
R e al , net, soft r e s o u r c e t r a n s f e r s p e r c a p i t a fell f r o m 1984 t h r o u g h 1990.
D e b t r e s c h e d u l i n g / w r i t e - o f f s , by a n d l a rg e, p r e v e n t e d a v a l a n c h e s of o p e n
d e f a u l t s a nd i m p o r t i n t e r r u p t i o n s r a t h e r t h a n r e d u c i n g o v e r h a n g s o r a l ­
l o w i n g s e r i o u s f o r w a r d f i n a n c i a l p l a n n i n g f r ee f r o m t h e c o n s t r a i n t s of
-
2
-
debt burdens.
T h e s e b u r d e n s , at best , c r i p p l e d p u b l i c s e r v i c e s and
i n f r a s t r u c t u r a l m a i n t e n a n c e / i n v e s t m e n t a n d , at w o r s t , p o s e d c h o i c e s as
s t a r k as s e r v i c i n g d e b t o r f i n a n c i n g b as i c f o o d s e c u r i t y a n d m e d i c a l s e r ­
vices.
M w a l i m u N y e r e r e ' s q u e s t i o n as to w h e t h e r S S A S t a t e s s h o ul d
s e r v i c e e x t e r n a l d e b t at t h e co st of s t a r v i n g c h i l d r e n w a s r h e t o r i c a l . But
it r e m a i n e d r h e t o r i c a l o n l y b e c a u s e no A f r i c a n S t at e ( e x c e p t p e r h a p s ,
f l e e t i n g l y , M a l a w i ) c h o s e to p ay at s u c h a p r i c e . Full d e b t s e r v i c e was.
a n d r e m a i n s , c o m p a t i b l e w i t h e c o n o m i c a n d h u m a n s u r v i v a l in a m i n o r i t y
of S S A c o u n t r i e s o n l y . On b a l a n c e , t he t o t a l d e b t , a r r e a r s a n d a v e r a g e
l e v e l of d e b t d i s t r e s s h a v e r ise n;
•
the exte rn a l e c on o m ic e n v iro n m e n t beh a ved m u ch w o r s e th a n projected,
w i t h t e r m s of t r a d e l o s s e s e x c e e d i n g net i n w a r d r e al r e s o u r c e t r a n s f e r s
plus debt w rite -d o w n s. C o u ntin g these t r a d e gains, N o rt h e r n industrial
e c o n o m i e s w e r e t h e r e c i p i e n t s of net r e s o u r c e f l o w s f r o m A f r i c a not (as
p r e s u m a b l y e n v i s a g e d in U N P A A E R D ) t h e o t h e r w a y a r o u n d .
V e r y c l e a r l y , t h e 1991 r e v i e w of U N P A A E R D w i l l be m a r k e d b y v o i c e s (and
not o n l y A f r i c a n v o i c e s ) s a y i n g : A f r i c a h o n o u r e d t h e c o n t r a c t , t h e N o r t h d e ­
f a u l t e d . T h e of fi ci al N o r t h e r n p e r c e p t i o n is v e r y d i f f e r e n t ; it t e n d s to s i d e s t e p
t h e d i s a s t r o u s m a r k e t d e v e l o p m e n t s a n d ( w i th l i m i t e d c r e d i b i l i t y ) c l a i m that
A f r i c a n c o r r u p t i o n a nd bad g o v e r n a n c e w e r e t h e b a s i c c o n s t r a i n t s on aid
f l o w s a n d c o n s t i t u t e A f r i c a n n o n - c o m p l i a n c e w i t h U N P A A E R D . H o w e v e r t rue
e i t h e r c a s e m a y be ( o r i n d e e d e l e m e n t s of e a c h - n o i n d e p e n d e n t a na l ys t
c o u l d m a k e m u c h of a d e f e n c e f o r s o m e A f r i c a n S t a t e s , o r t h e p o l i c i e s of
o t h e r s , a n y m o r e t h a n of t h e a c t u a l o p e r a t i o n s of m a n y t e c h n i c a l ' a s s i s t a n c e
a n d a i d p r o g r a m m e s ) , t h e y a r e not a u s ef u l s t a r t i n g p o i n t f o r s e r i o u s n e g o t i ­
a t i o n . A d i a l o g u e (or p a r a l l e l d i a t r i b e s ) c a r r i e d o ut o n t h o s e b a s e s can onl y
le ad to t e a r s . If t h e p u r p o s e of u n d e r s t a n d i n g t h e p a s t is to a v o i d r e p e a t i n g
it, c a n d i d a c c e p t a n c e t ha t t h e r e is m o r e t h a n e n o u g h b l a m e f o r all to share,
c o u p l e d w i t h s e r i o u s a t t e m p t s to a l t e r t h e f u t u r e , m i g h t be m o r e p r o d u c t i v e .
Th at c o n c l u s i o n is p e r h a p s a t r i u m p h of h o p e o v e r e x p e r i e n c e , b u t 1991 has
s o m e t h i n g s g o i n g f o r A f r i c a t ha t 1981 d i d not . F a r f e w e r e c o n o m i e s are in.
o r e n t e r i n g , f r e e fall. T h e t w o m a i n r e g i o n a l w a r c l u s t e r s - S o u t h e r n Af rica
a n d t h e H o r n - s e e m to be m o v i n g t o w a r d l e s s e n i n g l e v e l s o f v i o l e n c e , with
r e d u c t i o n s in e c o n o m i c a n d h u m a n loss. D e b t w r i t e - o f f s o f a d e q u a t e scope
a n d m a g n i t u d e - f o l l o w i n g t he P o l i s h a n d E g y p t i a n p r e c e d e n t s , a s w e l l as the
C o s t a R i c a n ' B r a d y P l a n ' e x a m p l e - a r e, a p p a r e n t l y , a b o u t t o c o m e o nt o the
negotiating agenda.
P e r h a p s m o s t c r u c i a l , t h e r e is a f a i r l y b r o a d a r e a of g e n e r a l a g r e e m e n t on
m e d i u m - t e r m s t r a t e g i c p o l i c y a n d p r o g r a m m e c o m p o n e n t s f o r e c o n o m i c re ­
h a b i l i t a t i o n a n d t r a n s f o r m a t i o n , e v e n if d i v e r g e n c e s in d e t a i l a n d p r i o r i t y still
v a r y . E q u a l l y s i g n i f i c a n t , t h e a r e a s of l e s s e r c o n s e n s u s - p o v e r t y r e d u c t i o n
-
3
-
a n d e x p o r t d e v e l o p m e n t - h a v e b e c o m e a r e a s of m u t u a l u n c e r t a i n t y r a t h e r
than h a rd lin e N o rth e rn /A fric a n confrontatio n.
T h a t t h i s p r o t o b a s e f o r a g r e e d a c t i o n is less c l e a r t h a n it m i g h t be is an u n ­
f o r t u n a t e r e s u l t of static r h e t o r i c m a s k i n g r a p i d l y s h i f t i n g r e a li t y.
In t he
B a n k s L o n g - T e r m P e r s p e c t i v e S t u d y ( L TP S) a g l o s s of h a r d l i n e , n e o - l i b e r a l
r h e t o r i c a l g e n e r a l i s a t i o n s b e a r s li tt le r e l a t i o n to its p r a g m a t i c , c a r e f u l l y
s t r u c t u r e d , s o c i a l l y r e s p o n s i v e p r o p o s a l s ( w h i c h c o u l d w e ll be t e r m e d
s o c i a l - d e m o c r a t i c , if t he B a n k d a r e d a d o p t t h a t l ab el ) . S i m i l a r l y , t h e UN E c o­
n o m ic C o m m is s io n for A frica's A frica n A lt e r n a t iv e s Study c o m b ine s strategic
a n d p o l i c y p r o p o s a l s , w h i c h a r e 9 5 % c o n g r u e n t w i t h LTPS, w i t h a s u s t a i n e d
d e n u n c i a t i o n of u l t r a - d e m a n d - r e d u c t i o n i s t , a r c h e t y p a l , 1 96 0s-st yl e Fu nd
s t a b i l i s a t i o n p r o g r a m m e s w h i c h it a p p a r e n t l y b e l i e v e s a r e p r e s e n t B a n k p o l ­
icy.
D e b a t e is n e e d e d , as is a t t e n t i o n to a c t u a l - n ot m e r e l y v e r b a l - e x p o r t d e ­
v e lo p m e n t and poverty re d uctio n strategies and the ir articula tio n and im p le ­
mentation.
R h e t o r i c t hat d i s g u i s e s a r e a s of a g r e e m e n t is, in t he B a n k ' s
t e r m i n o l o g y , in e ff i ci e nt b e c a u s e it m i s a l l o c a t e s i n t e l l e c t u a l r e s o u r c e s f r o m
b u i l d i n g on w h a t is a g r e e d , d e b a t i n g g e n u i n e p o i n t s of d i f f e r e n c e a n d i d e n t i ­
f y i n g a n d f i l l i n g gaps.
Fifteen Y ears - Largely Wasted?
S i n c e 1975. A f r i c a has p a s s e d t h r o u g h t h r e e m a i n e c o n o m i c p e r i o d s :
(1)
197 5- 79 w a s c h a r a c t e r i s e d by r a p i d r e c o v e r y of t he m a j o r i t y of A f r i c a n
e c o n o m i e s f r o m t he 1974 d r o u g h t / f i r s t oil s h o c k - i n d u c e d d e c l i n e s . O v e r
1976-79, f o u r y e a r s of 5 % a v e r a g e GDP g r o w t h w e r e t h e h i g h e s t m u l t i ­
y e a r p e r i o d e v e r r e c o r d e d a n d , u n i q u e l y , w e r e r o u g h l y c o m p a r a b l e to
t h e S o u t h ' s g l o b a l a v e r a g e . In r e t r o s p e c t it is c l e a r t h a t t h i s g r o w t h wa s
o v e r l y d e p e n d e n t on t he p r o c e e d s of t he 1975-76 b e v e r a g e p r i c e b o o m ,
o n oil e x p o r t e a r n i n g s , a n d on a r a p i d b u i l d - u p of e x t e r n a l d eb t . F u r t h e r ,
e v e n at a t i m e of r e l a t i v e la ck of s e v e r e r e s o u r c e c o n s t r a i n t s , n e i t h e r ef ­
ficiency im provement, currency re alignm ent nor long-term export d ive r­
s i f i c a t i o n s t r a t e g i e s w e r e a c t e d u p o n . Ev en at t h e t i m e , m o r e o v e r , it w a s
c l e a r t h a t t he a v e r a g e s m a s k e d v e r y p o o r p e r f o r m a n c e s by s e v e r a l
e c o n o m i e s , i n c l u d i n g G h a n a , Z a i r e a n d E t hi o p i a.
(2)
1 9 80 -8 4 w a s a p e r i o d of n e a r l y u n i f o r m e c o n o m i c d i s a s t e r . Th e o n l y
cle a r-cu t exceptions w e re B otsw ana and Mauritiu s.
These two ex­
c e p t i o n s d o i n c l u d e f iscal p r u d e n c e a n d e x p o r t b u o y a n c y , but t h e s p e c i a l
d i a m o n d / E E C beef a nd E E C - o r i e n t e d e x p o r t m a n u f a c t u r i n g z o n e - w h i c h
c o n s t i t u t e t h e r e s p e c t i v e e x p o r t b a s e s of B o t s w a n a a n d M a u r i t i u s - a r e
so s p e c i a l as to m a k e g e n e r a l e m u l a t i o n i m p r a c t i c a b l e . The s e c o n d oil
-
4
-
s h o c k , s h a r p i n c r e a s e s in w o r l d i n t e r e s t r a tes, g e n e r a l p r i m a r y p r o d u c t
t e r m s of t r a d e d e t e r i o r a t i o n , d r o u g h t a n d w a r w e r e a m o n g t he main
c a u s e s of t h e d e b a c l e e x p e r i e n c e d by m o s t A f r i c a n e c o n o m i e s . These
i n t e r a c t e d w i t h St at e p e r s o n n e l a n d f i n a n c i a l c a p a c i t i e s w h i c h h ad n a r ­
r o w m a r g i n s to h a n d l e i n c r e a s e d s t r a i n s a n d w h o s e e f f i c i e n c y d e t e r i ­
orated ra d ica lly u n d e r repeated shocks.
F u r t h e r , o v e r 1980-82, most
A f r i c a n p o l i c y m a k e r s (like t h e I MF, t h e W o r l d B a n k a n d t h e OECD) a s ­
s u m e d r a p i d g l o b a l r e c o v e r y in 1981-82 or, at t h e l a t es t , 1982-83. T h e r e ­
f o r e t h e y t r i e d to r e p e a t t h e ' r i d i n g o ut t h e s t o r m ' t a c t i c s t h a t h ad s e r v e d
t h e m w e l l o v e r 1974-76. W h e n , i n s t e a d , t h e e x t e r n a l c o n t e x t c o n t i n u e d
to w o r s e n , t h e y f a c e d t h e n e e d f o r m o r e r a d i c a l c u t s in i m p o r t s and
p ub lic in v e s tm e n t/s e rv ic e s with m u ch h ig h e r external debt, m o re accrued
u n d e r - m a i n t e n a n c e a n d little r e m a i n i n g l e s s - e s s e n t i a l s p e n d i n g to cut.
t h a n if a d j u s t m e n t had b e e n b e g u n in 1979-80.
T h e f i r st h al f of t he 1980s w a s a l s o m a r k e d by a d r o u g h t c y c l e c u l m i n a t ­
i n g in 1984. W h i l e d r o u g h t s a r e e n d e m i c in A f r i c a , t h e p a r a l l e l t i m i n g and
s e v e r i t y in t h e S ah e l, t h e H o r n a n d S o u t h e r n A f r i c a w e r e e x t r e m e . Al so
in t h e H o r n , S o u t h e r n a n d S o u t h A f r i c a t h e 1980-89 c o s t s of w a r have
p r o b a b l y b e e n of t h e o r d e r of $100 b i l l i o n a n d m a d e t h e d i f f e r e n c e b e ­
tw e en actual 2 % and potential 5-6 % a nn u al g ro w th rates.
U n l i k e the
d r o u g h t c y c l e , t h i s b u r d e n d i d not ' c o m e r i g h t ' in t h e s e c o n d h al f of the
d e c a d e , a l t h o u g h s o m e a b a t e m e n t w a s a c h i e v e d in S o u t h e r n A f r i c a after
1988 a n d is n o w in p r o s p e c t in t he H o r n .
(3)
1 9 8 5 -9 0 has a g a i n b e e n m o r e m i x e d .
T h e 1976-79 5 % g r o w t h rat es of
G D P h a v e n o t b e e n r e g a i n e d , b ut t he 1 . 5 - 2 % of 1 98 0-84 h a v e b ee n in­
c r e a s e d t o a b o u t a 3 % t r e n d , a l b e i t w i t h w i d e a n n u a l , s u b - r e g i o n a l and
n a t i o n a l f l u c t u a t i o n s . W h e t h e r t h i s p e r f o r m a n c e c o n s t i t u t e s a base f o r
s u s t a i n e d r e c o v e r y a n d t r a n s f o r m a t i o n is at best u n c l e a r . W i t h 1990 GDP
p e r c a p i t a f r e q u e n t l y e s t i m a t e d at 2 0 - 2 5 % b e l o w 1980, r e c o v e r y has a
l o n g w a y to go a n d e v e n ' s u c c e s s f u l a d j u s t o r s ' w i t h 3 - 5 % GDP t r e n d
g r o w t h s i n c e t h e m i d - 1 9 8 0 s o f t e n f a ce a p r o j e c t e d t r e n d d a t e of 2000-2020
f o r r e g a i n i n g t h e i r 1980 p o s i t i o n s . C l e a r l y a d j u s t m e n t f a t i g u e wi l l f or ce
polic y chan g es - for better o r for w o rs e - well before that date. C o m p e t­
i ti ve e l e c t i o n s , h o w e v e r d e s i r a b l e , wi l l i n c r e a s e t h e p r o b a b i l i t y of a r e ­
v e r s i o n to u n d u l y o p t i m i s t i c p o l i c y a n d s p e n d i n g p a t t e r n s , n o t a b l y in
Ghana and Zambia .
A la r m in g ly , the lo n g e r running, m o re successful, in te rn a tio n a lly -b a c ke d
s t r u c t u r a l a d j u s t m e n t p r o g r a m m e s s h o w no s i g n of a c h i e v i n g e x t e r n a l a c­
c o u n t s u s t a i n a b i l i t y , if t h a t is d e f i n e d as a s i g n i f i c a n t r e d u c t i o n in real per
c a p i t a i m p o r t s c o n s i s t e n t w i t h c o n t i n u e d o u t p u t a n d i n v e s t m e n t g ro wt h.
G h a n a a n d T a n z a n i a h a v e r e g a i n e d g r o w t h t r e n d s a b o v e t h a t of p o p u l a t i o n ,
n a r r o w e d ( c l o s e d in G h a n a ' s case) r e c u r r e n t b u d g e t d e f i c i t s a n d r e d u c e d
g o v e r n m e n t use of d o m e s t i c b a n k i n g s y s t e m f i n a n c e to m a n a g e a b l e levels.
-
5
-
T h e y h a v e h a l t e d the d e t e r i o r a t i o n in h e a l t h - e d u c a t i o n - w a t e r p r o v i s i o n a nd
h a v e m a d e p r o g r e s s at i n f r a s t r u c t u r a l r e s t o r a t i o n . But, d e s p i t e d e v a l u a t i o n
a n d o t h e r e x p o r t e n a b l i n g m e a s u r e s w h i c h h a v e i n d e e d led to s i g n i f i c a n t e x ­
port v o lu m e growth, the ir external resource transfer inflow re q uirem en ts
h a v e r i s e n a n d - e ven on B a n k p r o j e c t i o n s - wi l l c o n t i n u e to d o so f o r t he
f o r e s e e a b l e f u t u r e if f iscal b a l a n c e , s e r v i c e s r e s t o r a t i o n a n d 5 % g r o w t h are
to be s u s t a i n e d . T e r m s of t r a d e d e c l i n e a n d t h e i nit ial t r a d e g a p h a v e m e a n t
t h a t e a r n e d i m p o r t c a p a c i t y as a s h a r e of c u r r e n t p r i c e GDP has f a l le n e v en
t h o u g h e x p o r t s as a s h a r e of c o n s t a n t p r i c e GDP h a ve r i se n . O n l y M a u r i t i u s
of t h e e x t e r n a l l y b a c ke d , a n d Z i m b a b w e of t h e f u l l y d o m e s t i c a l l y cr af t ed
S A P s , h a v e a c h i e v e d r e a s o n a b l y s u s t a i n a b l e c u r r e n t a c c o u n t b a l an c e s .
M a u r i t i u s ' e x p o r t i n d u s t r i a l z o n e s h a v e c a p i t a l i s e d on r e l a t i v e l y h i gh l a b o u r
t r a i n i n g a n d p r o d u c t i v i t y w h i l e Z i m b a b w e has b ui l t up m a n u f a c t u r e s e x p o r t s
( e s p e c i a l l y r e g i o n a l l y ) a n d an a r r a y of o l d a n d n e w (e.g. m a n g e - t o u t peas)
p r im a r y exports.
D o m e s t i c s a v i n g has al so b e e n s l o w to r e c o v e r - n o t a b l y in Z i m b a b w e , as
w e l l as in G h a n a a nd T a n z a n i a . In part, t h i s is a r e s u l t of s l o w e x p o r t g r o w t h
- if r e c u r r e n t i m p o r t s e q u al o r e x c e e d e x p o r t s t h e n o n l y t h e d o m e s t i c c o n t e n t
( u s u a l l y 3 0 - 5 0 % ) of f ixed i n v e s t m e n t can, ex p o s t , be f i n a n c e d f r o m d o m e s t i c
savings.
In t h e G ha n a a n d Z i m b a b w e c a s es , t he r e s u l t has b een l o w
r e c o r d e d D o m e s t i c Fixed C a p i t a l F o r m a t i o n ( b a r e l y a b o v e t he 9 - 1 2 % of GDP
r a n g e f o r d e p r e c i a t i o n w h i c h s h o u l d be, but r a r e l y is, a l l o w e d f o r in n a t i o n a l
a c c o u n t s ) a n d a rise in o v e r a l l c a p a c i t y u t i l i s a t i o n f r o m p e r h a p s 7 5 % in 1983
to o v e r 9 0 % by 1990. T a n z a n i a , p e r c o n t r a , h as m a i n t a i n e d h i g h ( o v e r 2 0 %
of GDP ) f i x e d i n v e s t m e n t l e v el s, but a p p a r e n t l y w i t h little o v e r a l l gai n in
c a pa city utilisation.
T h e 1980s w e r e c h a r a c t e r i s e d not s i m p l y by s l o w GDP g r o w t h but al so by i n ­
c r e a s e s in t he p r o p o r t i o n of A f r i c a n s l i v i n g in a b s o l u t e p o v e r t y to a r o u n d
3 0 % ( v i r t u a l l y t y i n g w i t h S o u t h A s i a f o r t he h i g h e s t p r o p o r t i o n in t he w o r l d ) ,
r i s i n g f o o d i n s e c u r i t y at b ot h h o u s e h o l d a n d n a t i o n a l l e ve ls, d e c r e a s i n g a c ­
c e s s t o a d e q u a t e l i v e l i h o o d s (in e m p l o y m e n t o r s e l f - e m p l o y m e n t ) , l o w to
n e g a tiv e e nte rp rise sector la b o u r p ro d u ctiv ity growth, acceleratin g ecological
d a m a g e (soil e r o s i o n , d e f o r e s t a t i o n , n e o - d e s e r t i f i c a t i o n ) , n e a r s t a g n a t i o n in
u n d e r - 5 m o r t a l i t y rates a n d of life e x p e c t a n c i e s at b i r t h ( r e s p e c t i v e l y t he
h i g h e s t a n d l o w e s t of all r e g i o n s ) a n d , l a r g e l y as a r e s u l t of i m p o v e r i s h m e n t
a n d i n s e c u r i t y , r i s i n g p o p u l a t i o n g r o w t h rat es.
B r i e f o v e n / i e w s of A f r i c a m u s t be t r e a t e d w i t h c a u t i o n . F i ft y -t wo c o u n t r i e s
w i t h o v e r 500 m i l l i o n p e o p l e (47 w i t h o v e r 400 m i l l i o n e x c l u d i n g N o r t h A f r ic a ,
o r 53 w i t h 550 m i l l i o n i n c l u d i n g N o r t h a n d a l s o S o u t h A f r i c a ) c a n n o t be
r e a d i l y h o m o g e n i s e d int o m e a n i n g f u l a v e r a g e s o r s i m p l e q u a l i t a t i v e d e ­
s c r i p t i o n s a n d a n a l y s e s . H o w e v e r , m o s t of t h e d i f f e r e n c e s a r e i n t e r - c o u n t r y :
N o r t h A f r i c a n p e r f o r m a n c e ( d e s p i t e h i g h e r G DP p e r c a pi t a e c o n o m i c s t r u c ­
t u r e s ) is n ot r a d i c a l l y d i f f e r e n t f r o m that of m i d d l e - i n c o m e s u b - S a h a r a n
-
6
-
African economies.
S o u t h A f r i c a , b e c a u s e of a p a r t h e i d , h a s a r a d i c a l l y
d i f f e r e n t i n c o m e d i s t r i b u t i o n , a l b e i t o n e r e m a r k a b l y c o m p a r a b l e to B ra zi l
a m o n g large, in d u stria lis e d , m id d le -in c o m e e c o n o m ie s .
It a l s o has an
i n d u s t r i a l l y f o c u s e d s t r u c t u r e of p r o d u c t i o n . H o w e v e r , its 1980-90 a n d (es­
p e c i a l l y ) 1985-90, e c o n o m i c p e r f o r m a n c e h as b e e n m o d e r a t e l y w o r s e t han
t h a t of S SA . B u r e a u c r a t i c c o n t r o l s , s e l f - i n f l i c t e d d a m a g e f r o m l u x u r y c o n ­
s u m p t i o n , ' n a t i o n a l l y ' c h o s e n h i g h l e v e l s of m i l i t a r y e x p e n d i t u r e , m a rk e t
c o n s t r a i n t s f l o w i n g f r o m t h e a p a r t h e i d i n c o m e d i s t r i b u t i o n s t r u c t u r e a n d l ow
l a b o u r p r o d u c t i v i t y d i r e c t l y f l o w i n g f r o m t h e w o r k p l a c e r e l a t i o n s s t r u c t u r e of
a p a r t h e i d h a v e led to t hi s.
A n o t h e r s e r i o u s o b s t a c l e f o r e i t h e r n a t i o n a l o r r e g i o n a l s u r v e y s is t hat SSA
d a t a a r e v e r y b ad . E s t i m a t e s of GDP a r e r a r e l y b e t t e r t h a n p l u s o r m i n u s
2 0 % a n d , e v e n m o r e s e r i o u s , t h o s e of GDP g r o w t h a r e s u b j e c t to p l u s o r m i ­
n u s 2 % m o r e a n d , f o r p o p u l a t i o n g r o w t h , p l u s o r m i n u s 1 % . A t p r e s e n t . GDP
g r o w t h is - o n a v e r a g e - p r o b a b l y m a r g i n a l l y u n d e r - e s t i m a t e d ( g r o s s l y so
w h e n US d o l l a r c o n v e r s i o n s a r e u s e d b e c a u s e of m a s s i v e , p o s t - 1 9 8 3 real
d e v a l u a t i o n s in a m a j o r i t y of c o u n t r i e s ) . P o p u l a t i o n g r o w t h o v e r - e s t i m a t i o n s
a r e c o m m o n (e.g. t h e 1987 T a n z a n i a c e n s u s s h o w s a 2 . 7 5 % p o p u l a t i o n
g r o w t h r a te o v e r 1977-87 v e r s u s t h e 3 . 3 % e s t i m a t e d f r o m c a r e l e s s c o m p a r ­
is o n of t h e n o n - c o m p a r a b l e 1967 a n d 1977 c e n s i ) . H o w e v e r , t h e b r o a d p a ­
r a m e t e r s a r e v i s i b l e d e s p i t e t h e u n c e r t a i n t i e s a n d t h e a c t u a l p o s i t i o n is g r i m
f o r a m a j o r i t y of A f r i c a n s , e v e n if s l i g h t l y less so t h a n t h e a v a i l a b l e d a t a m i gh t
suggest.
Th e lat e 1980s has s e e n a b r o a d e n i n g a r e a of s t r a t e g i c a n d p o l i c y a g r e e m e n t .
For exam ple , g ro s sly o v e r-v a lu e d c u rre n c ie s have few b a ck e rs and neither
d o s h o r t , s h a r p s h o c k s t a b i l i s a t i o n s c h e m e s w i t h no a t t e n t i o n t o r eal h o u s e ­
h o l d i n c o m e o r b as i c ( r e - s t y l e d ' h u m a n i n v e s t m e n t ' ) s e r v i c e s c o n s e q u e n c e s .
Th e UN E c o n o m i c C o m m i s s i o n f o r A f r i c a ' s A f r i c a n A l t e r n a t i v e F r a m e w o r k to
S t r u c t u r a l A d j u s t m e n t P r o g r a m m e s ( A A F - S A P ) is 9 5 % c o m p a t i b l e w i t h the
W o rld B a n k 's L o n g -T e rm P e rs p e c tiv e S tu d y - F ro m Crisis to S ustain able
Growth.
R e d u c t i o n of a b s o l u t e p o v e r t y has r e t u r n e d to t h e W o r l d B a n k ' s
s t r a t e g i c p r i o r i t y a g e n d a b o t h in t h e L T PS a n d in t h e 1990 W o r l d D e v e l o p ­
m e n t Report, and entered the ECA's with the K h a r t o u m H u m a n Dim ensio n
C o n f e r e n c e in 1988 a n d its D e c l a r a t i o n , s u b s e q u e n t l y b l e s s e d b y O A U and
E CA s u m m i t s . W h i l e t h e r e r e m a i n s h a r p d i s a g r e e m e n t s o n p h a s i n g , t i m i n g ,
r e l a t i v e p r i o r i t i e s a n d t r a d e - o f f s , t h e b r o a d b o d y of s t r a t e g i c a n a l y s i s has
m o v e d f a r a w a y , b o t h f r o m t he n e o - l i b e r a l i s m o f t h e B a n k ' s 1981 B e r g Report
a n d t h e M a r x i a n - p h r a s e d (and less f r e q u e n t l y s u b s t a n t i v e l y i n t e n d e d ) n e o ­
m e r c a n t i l i s t p l a t f o r m s h e l d by m a n y A f r i c a n g o v e r n m e n t s at t h a t d at e.
T h e r e a r e t w o b a s i c g a p s . H o w e v e r , t h e s e a r e c o m m o n to, r a t h e r
of c o n f r o n t a t i o n a m o n g , t h e s t u d i e s .
B o t h A A F - S A P a n d L TPS
g i c a l l y c o m m i t t e d to p o v e r t y r e d u c t i o n a n d b o t h h a v e m o v e d
r a t h e r s t e r i l e d e b a t e on t h e d e g r e e to w h i c h S A P s h a v e , o r h a v e
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7
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t h a n poi nt s
are strate­
b e y o n d the
not c o n t r i b ­
u t e d t o w a v s a n d m e a n s of r e d u c i n g p o v e r t y l e v el s. H o w e v e r , n e i t h e r r e a l l y
a r t i c u l a t e s h o w t o e n a b l e p o o r h o u s e h o l d s ( w h e t h e r as f a r m e r s , a r t i s a n s o r
w a g e d e m p l o y e e s ) to p r o d u c e m o r e o r h o w to fit c r i t e r i a f o r a c h i e v i n g t hat
end into overall macro, sectoral and project selection operatio ns. Nor does
e i t h e r s t u d y , in fact, h av e a c o h e r e n t , c r e d i b l e e x p o r t d e v e l o p m e n t s t r a t e g y .
It is c o n v e n i e n t to l ook at A f r i c a in 1989-90 a n d its 1991-2000 p r o s p e c t s in a
f r a m e w o r k of f o u r issue c l u s t e r s :
(1)
P ublic Sector Capacity: Security, G o v e rn a n c e , Participation
F o r t h o s e A f r i c a n c o u n t r i e s a f f l i c te d , w a r , o r t h e l i v e t h r e a t o f w a r, is t he
g r e a t e s t s i n g l e b a r r i e r to g r o w t h , d e v e l o p m e n t a n d p o v e r t y r e d u c t i o n .
In t h e c as e of S o u t h e r n A f r i c a , i n c l u d i n g N a m i b i a , t he 1980-89 d i r e c t a nd
i n d i r e c t GDP l os se s f r o m w a r t o t a l l e d $65, 000 m i l l i o n , o r o v e r t w i c e a t ­
t a i n e d GDP (as well as n e a r l y 1.600,000 l i ve s) . S i nc e S o u t h e r n A f r i c a has
a l r e a d y t e n u o u s l y r e g a i n e d a 3 . 5 - 4 % g r o w t h t r e n d , t h e p o t e n t i a l p ea ce
d i v i d e n d c o u l d be a 6 % a n n u a l g r o w t h rat e.
In t h e c a s e of Sou th A f r i c a , w a r c o s ts h a v e b ee n s u b s t a n t i a l - t he ' d e ­
f e n c e ' b u d g e t has b ot h led to i n f l a t i o n a r y f i n a n c e a n d to t he ' c r o w d i n g
o u t ' of p u b l i c s e c t o r h u m a n a n d p h y s i c a l i n v e s t m e n t a n d m a i n t e n a n c e .
H o w e v e r , t he w a r bill in t h i s c as e is o n l y o n e f acet of t he cost of
a p a r t h e i d . F o r a l m o s t 40 y e a r s S o u t h A f r i c a ' s h i gh c a p i t a l i s t s (not least
t h e l e a d e r s of A n g l o - d e B e e r s a n d R e m b r a n d t ) h a ve w a r n e d that the
s y s t e m w a s e c o n o m i c a l l y i n e ff i c i e nt .
T h e cost of p r o p p i n g up the
B a n t u s t a n s a n d i n t e r n a l ' s e c u r i t y ' has b e e n t he m o s t e v i d e n t , but by no
m e a n s t he l a rg es t , i tem. H i g h l y u n e q u a l d i s t r i b u t i o n of p u r c h a s i n g p o w e r
(plus gold-based, Dutch disease s y n d r o m e dete rring manufactured
e x p o rt d evelo pm ent) have distorte d and limited industria l growth.
P e r h a p s m o s t s e r i o u s , t h e l a b o u r r e l a t i o n s of a p a r t h e i d a r e s u ch t hat
d o u b l i n g b l a c k w a g e s in t h e 1980s a c h i e v e d z e r o o r n e g a t i v e g r o w t h in
la b o u r productivity - a virtually unprecedented 'achievement'.
This
h e r i t a g e s h o u l d g i ve g r o u n d s f o r p a u s i n g b e f o r e a c c e p t i n g c l a i m s t hat a
'n e w ' South Africa (apparently u n d e r the sam e pro du ctio n and enterprise
m a n a g e r s ) wi l l b e c o m e t h e l o c o m o t i v e to h au l S SA o ut of s t a g n a t i o n .
O n l y t h e S o u t h e r n A f r i c a n c os ts h a v e b e e n e s t i m a t e d s e r i o u s l y . B e c a u s e
t h e y f l o w p r i m a r i l y f r o m e x t e r n a l a g g r e s s i o n a n d t he m a i n st at e f i n a n c i e r
a n d m a n a g e r of t ha t a g g r e s s i o n is S o u t h A f r i c a , it has b ee n (just) p o l i ­
t i c a l l y p o s s i b l e f o r i n t e r n a t i o n a l o r g a n i z a t i o n s to s t u d y t h e m s e r i o u s l y
a n d to use t h e i r f i n d i n g s as i n p u t s int o p o l i c y d i a l o g u e . B ut t he co s ts of
i n t e r l o c k i n g civil , e m p i r e b r e a k up (in t he c l a s s i c m e a n i n g of e m p i r e ) a nd
b o r d e r w a r s in t he H o r n ( S u d a n , E t h i o p i a / E r i t r e a , S o m a l i a , D j i b o u t i ) o v e r
t h e last d e c a d e h av e p r o b a b l y b e e n in t h e $20, 000-25,000 m i l l i o n r a n g e
o r 1.3-1.7 t i m e s act ua l 1988 GDP, a n d t h e y h a v e had ( b e c a u s e of f a m i n e s
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8
-
r e n d e r e d m a s s i v e l y fatal by w a r ) a h i g h e r d e a t h toll t h a n in S o u t h e r n
Africa.
C i v i l w a r s in L i b e r i a , U g a n d a , Z a i r e , t h e m i x e d c i vi l w a r s w i t h e x t e r n a l
m a n i p u l a t i o n in C h a d a n d R w a n d a a n d t h e l i b e r a t i o n s t r u g g l e in W e s t e r n
S a h a r a h a v e a l so c r i p p l e d t he e c o n o m i e s a f f e c t e d a n d h a v e had a
d i r e c t / i n d i r e c t d e a t h t ol l of at least 15, 000.000, a l b e i t w i t h a l o w e r GDP
l o s s t h a n in e i t h e r of t he t w o c o r e w a r z o n e s .
W a r - w h e n f o u g h t w i t h i n a n a t i o n ' s b o u n d a r i e s - is t h e e x t r e m e of i n s e ­
c u r i t y . B u t l a w a n d o r d e r , in t h e s e n s e of b e i n g a b l e to g o a b o u t o n e ' s
d a i l y l i v e l i h o o d a n d life w i t h o u t t h r e a t , is w e a k (in v a r y i n g d e g r e e s ) in
m a n y n o n - w a r St at es. T h e e c o n o m i c c o s t s of w e a k l a w a n d o r d e r and
of c i vi l d i s o r d e r ( w h a t e v e r its c a u s e s ) a r e h i g h . S e c u r i t y is not a suf fi ­
c i e n t c o n d i t i o n f o r d e v e l o p m e n t but it is a n e c e s s a r y o n e .
G o v e r n a n c e is u s u a l l y v i e w e d as a p o l i t i c a l i s s u e b ut s e v e r a l a s p e c t s are
e c o n o m i c o r h a v e d i r e c t e c o n o m i c c o n s e q u e n c e s . F ir s t, it is i d l e to tal k
a b o u t g o o d g o v e r n a n c e if St at e f i n a n c i a l a n d p e r s o n n e l r e s o u r c e s are
i n a d e q u a t e to t he t a s k o r p o o r l y d e p l o y e d . T h e W o r l d B a n k ' s L TPS s u g ­
g e s t s t h a t a f t e r e l i m i n a t i n g e n t e r p r i s e s u b s i d i e s a n d c o n c e n t r a t i n g on
b a s i c s e r v i c e s a n d i n f r a s t r u c t u r e , S S A S t at e s w i l l n e e d to r a i s e p e r capi ta
e x p e n d i t u r e in r eal t e r m s by 4 0 - 5 0 % by 2000 (by o v e r 1 0 0 % in the
p o o r e s t c o u n t r i e s ) - a n d , i m p l i c i t l y , to i n c r e a s e m i d d l e a n d h i g h level
p e r s o n n e l by 2 5 - 3 0 % . T h at is s u c h a d a u n t i n g c h a l l e n g e as to r e q u i r e
p r i o r i t i s a t i o n a w a y f r o m n o n - e s s e n t i a l s e r v i c e s a n d f r o m all but s e le c te d ,
cru cia l pub lic enterprises, for w h ich private o r joint v e n t u r e alternatives
a r e n o n - e x i s t e n t o r c l e a r l y u n s a t i s f a c t o r y . It is a c a s e n o t f o r less but f or
m o r e s e l e c t i v e a n d d e e p e r St at e r e s o u r c e d e p l o y m e n t .
Second, a cc ou n ta b ility re q uires accounts. A frica n p ub lic s e c to r accounts
u s u a l l y r a n g e f r o m w e a k to d e p l o r a b l e , e s p e c i a l l y in p r o v i d i n g t he i n ­
t e r i m i n f o r m a t i o n f l o w s n e e d e d w i t h i n a ( g o v e r n m e n t o r e n t e r p r i s e ) f i­
nancia l y e a r for a de q ua te financial m a n a g e m e n t.
I r o n i c a l l y , and
t r a g i c a l l y , d o n o r p r e s s u r e is f r e q u e n t l y a c c e l e r a t i n g t h i s d e t e r i o r a t i o n .
S c a r c e p e r s o n n e l a r e c o n c e n t r a t e d on h a n d l i n g t h e m u l t i p l e r e p o r t i n g
p r o c e d u r e s that d o n o r s / le n d e r s require, m a r g in a lis in g a nd debilitating
the natio nal b u d g e ta ry a c c ou n ting process as a result.
T h i r d , p a r t i c i p a t i o n in g o v e r n a n c e is l i k e l y (by p r o v i d i n g d a t a a n d m o n i ­
t o r i n g ) to i n c r e a s e e f f i c i e n c y of r e s o u r c e u s e, m o r a l e ( a n d t h e r e f o r e p r o ­
d u c t i v i t y ) a n d t he w i l l i n g n e s s of c o m m u n i t i e s to a u g m e n t s t a t e r e s o u r c e s
f o r b a s i c s e r v i c e s a n d s m a l l - s c a l e i n f r a s t r u c t u r e . M u l t i - p a r t y i s m is nei ­
t h e r a s u f f i c i e n t n o r a n e c e s s a r y c o n d i t i o n . C o m p e t i t i v e n e s s of e l ec ti on s,
a r e al c h a n c e of d e f e a t i n g i n c u m b e n t s , c i v i l s o c i e t y a c c e s s to e n o u g h
a c c o u n tin g reports and o th e r public sector in fo r m a tio n to m a ke informed
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9
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j u d g e m e n t s , a n d g o v e r n m e n t a l r e s p o n s i v e n e s s to p u b l i c w i s h e s a nd
o p i n i o n s a r e c ru c i a l . A s s u r e d l y , m o s t s i n g l e , o r n o - p a r t y , st at es s h a p e
up b a d l y on t h e s e c o u n t s , but t he r e c o r d of p r e s e n t a nd past m u l t i - p a r t y
o n e s in A f r i c a is not all t h a t m u c h bet t er.
(2)
Sectoral B ottle necks and T ra n s fo rm a tio n Needs
M a c r o - e c o n o m i c s t r a t e g y - e s p e c i a l l y w h e n c o n c e n t r a t e d on f isc al , m o n ­
e t a r y a n d e x c h a n g e rat e p o l i c y - is not e n o u g h . S e c t o r a l s t r a t e g i e s a r e
a n e c e s s a r y p ar a l l e l .
Th e f o u r m o s t c r u c i a l s e c t o r s a r e a g r i c u l t u r e ,
t ra n s p o rt and c o m m u n ica tio n s, m a n ufa c turing and energy.
A g r i c u l t u r e r e m a i n s t h e k e y to a m a j o r i t y of A f r i c a n h o u s e h o l d s '
l i v e l i h o o d s a n d f o o d s e c u r i t y , as w e l l as a m a j o r s o u r c e of e x p o r t
e a r n i n g s a n d i n d u s t r i a l i n p u t s . S i n c e 1965, its g r o w t h has l a g g e d b e h i n d
t h a t of p o p u l a t i o n . The 1980s i m p r o v e m e n t to 2 . 5 % a y e a r s e e m s to be
m a d e up of 2 % f o o d ( v e r s u s 2 - 2 . 5 % o v e r 1965-70, 1 .8 % in t h e 1970s a n d
s o m e w h a t o v e r 2 % in t h e late 1960s) a n d 3 % e x p o r t / i n d u s t r i a l c r o p s
( v e r s u s n e g a t i v e in t h e 1970s a n d o v e r 3 % in t h e late 1960s). F o r s u s ­
t a i n e d r e c o v e r y a nd less i n a d e q u a t e n u t r i t i o n a l lev el s, c o m b i n e d w i t h
r e d u c e d d e p e n d e n c e on f o o d a i d, 4 % g r o w t h of f o o d p r o d u c t i o n is
n e e d e d a n n u a l l y o v e r 1990-2010. F o r e x p o r t / i n d u s t r i a l p r o d u c t i o n , 5 %
g r o w t h is n e e d e d to a v o i d c o n t i n u e d i m p o r t s t r a n g u l a t i o n a n d m a n u f a c ­
t u r i n g b l o c k a g e s , a l b e i t on e x p o r t s . M a j o r shifts, e.g. int o h o r t i c u l t u r e ,
a r e n e e d e d since, f o r A f r i c a as a w h o l e , m o r e tea, coffee, c o c o a , s u g a r
a n d p e r h a p s c o tt on , t o b a c c o a n d o i l s e e d e x p o r t s w o u l d - g i v e n A f r i c a n
m a r k e t s h a r e s a nd w o r l d p r i c e e l a s t i c i t i e s - be l ik el y to r e d u c e , not raise,
t o t a l net e x p o r t e a r n i n g s
M o s t a g r i c u l t u r a l o u t p u t g r o w t h o v e r t he p as t q u a r t e r of a c e n t u r y has
c o m e fro m cu ltiva tin g /g ra z in g m o re hectarage.
In m o s t c o u n t r i e s t hi s
c a n n o t be c o u n t e d on as a c o n t i n u e d , let a l o n e r a d i c a l l y e n h a n c e d , c o n ­
t r i b u t i o n to g r o w t h . F a r m i n g has p u s h e d i nt o s u b - m a r g i n a l (soil q u a l i t y
a n d / o r a s s u r e d r a in fal l d e f i c i e n t ) a r e a s a n d p u s h e d p a s t o r a l i s m out int o
e v e n m o r e s u b - m a r g i n a l t r a c k s . Th e a p p a r e n t l o w - c u l t i v a t e d to a r a b l e
land ra tio s are m is lea d in g because lo ng-rotatio n, 'fallow' (u n de r bush or
f o r e s t ) l a n d is not a v a i l a b l e f o r a g r i c u l t u r e g i v e n k n o w n / v i a b l e t e c h n o l o ­
g i e s a n d can be up to f o u r t i m e s t h e a r e a a c t u a l l y c u l t i v a t e d at a n y o n e
t i m e . A s e c o n d m a j o r c o n s t r a i n t is r u r a l w o m e n ' s w o r k l o a d - o ft en 14-16
h o u r s a d a y in r u r a l SSA. No m o r e t i m e c a n be put into a g r i c u l t u r e u n ­
l e ss it ca n be s a v e d e l s e w h e r e .
In t h e s h o r t r u n, m a j o r p r o d u c t i v i t y b r e a k t h r o u g h s a r e u n l i k e l y - t he s h e l f
of r e s e a r c h / t e c h n i q u e s a d a p t e d , f i e l d - t e s t e d a n d p r o v e n to be c ost eff i­
c i e n t , is v e r y p o o r l y s t o c k e d . T hat p o s i t s a n u r g e n t p r i o r i t y f o r s u c h r e ­
s e a r c h n ow , but f o r late 1990s a n d 2000s pay- of f. In t he s h o r t r u n, b e t t e r
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10
-
a c c e s s to m a r k e t s , t r a n s p o r t , s e e d s , h a n d a n d a n i m a l d r a w n t o o l s and
f e r t i l i s e r s ca n r a i s e o u t p u t . So can e x t e n d i n g t h e b es t l o c a l l y / n a t i o n a l l y
u s e d t e c h n i q u e s (of ten a d a p t e d ' t r a d i t i o n a l ' o n e s u n k n o w n to the
re s e a r c h /e x te n s io n establishm ent) and by fre eing w o m e n ' s tim e for ag ­
r i c u l t u r e by i m p r o v i n g a c c e s s to b as i c h e a l t h s e r v i c e s , w a t e r a n d fuel
w h i c h t o g e t h e r ca n t a k e up to e i g h t h o u r s a d ay .
T r a n s p o r t a n d c o m m u n i c a t i o n in S S A h a v e g o n e b a c k w a r d s s i n c e 1979.
Deferred m a in ten a nce and w a r have w re c k e d m a n y once adequate
routes. O th e r rural areas neve r did have a d e q u a te a ccess to tra nsp o rt or, t h e r e f o r e , to m a r k e t s . P o o r c o m m u n i c a t i o n i n t e r n a l l y i m p e d e s data
f l o w a n d r e d u c e s s tat e a n d e n t e r p r i s e m a n a g e r i a l e f f i c i e n c y - a g a i n as
t h e r e s u l t of g a p s in n o m i n a l c o v e r a g e p l u s m a i n t e n a n c e so l o n g d e ­
f e r r e d as to lead to e n d e m i c b r e a k d o w n s .
Externally, te leco m m un i­
c a t i o n s h a v e i m p r o v e d in t h e 1980s (as h a v e a i r s e r v i c e s ) but r e m a i n
b e l o w t h e s t a n d a r d s n e e d e d f o r e f f ic i en t p a r t i c i p a t i o n in g l o b a l t r a d e .
To r e g a i n 1970s b a s i c t r a n s p o r t s t a n d a r d s , fill t h e m o s t g l a r i n g g a p s and
a t t a i n m i n i m a l a d e q u a t e d o m e s t i c a n d e x t e r n a l c o m m u n i c a t i o n s wi l l - on
W o r l d B a n k e s t i m a t e s - r e q u i r e r a p i d i n c r e a s e s to t h e y e a r 2000 of
i n v e s t m e n t / m a i n t e n a n c e , b u i l d - u p of ( l o w c o st a n d l o w - i n c o m e h o u s e ­
hold
e f f e ct i v e,
but
still
uncommon)
labour-intensive
rural
r o a d / t r a c k s / b r i d g e s / c u l v e r t s c o n s t r u c t i o n ( a l r e a d y d e m o n s t r a t e d to be
f e a s i b l e a n d f i n a n c e a b l e in a w i d e r a n g e of I LO a n d g o v e r n m e n t
p r o j e c t s ) , a n d l a b o u r - i n t e n s i v e m a i n t e n a n c e m o r e g e n e r a l l y (as is n ow
being
begun
in M o z a m b i q u e ' s
urban
infrastructure
re habilitatio n
project).
I n d u s t r y in A f r i c a , a f t e r 7 % a n n u a l g r o w t h in t h e 1970s a n d n e a r s t a g ­
n a t i o n o v e r t h e f i r st h al f of t he 1980s, h a s r e t u r n e d t o 3 - 4 % a nn u a l
g r o w t h . For 4 - 5 % GDP g r o w t h a n d s t r u c t u r a l t r a n s f o r m a t i o n , at least 6 %
i n d u s t r i a l g r o w t h p e r a n n u m is n e e d e d o v e r t h e 1990s.
W i t h o u t d o u b t t h e u n i t cost s, o u t p u t t r e n d s a n d s t r u c t u r e s of t h e i n d u s ­
t r i a l s e c t o r s of m o s t A f r i c a n e c o n o m i e s ( Z i m b a b w e , B o t s w a n a , M a u r i t i u s .
Tunisia, A lg e ria and, possibly, M ala wi and Egypt are e x c e p tio n s ) are un­
s o u n d . W h y t h i s s h o u l d be so is a c o m p l e x i s s u e v a r y i n g f r o m c o u n t r y
to c o u n t r y , i n d u s t r y to i n d u s t r y a n d p l a n t t o p l a nt .
O n e c a u s e is l o n g d e f e r r e d m a i n t e n a n c e l e a d i n g t o l o w c apa ci t y
u t i l i s a t i o n a n d h i g h b r e a k d o w n c os ts . A s e c o n d is h e a v y d e p e n d e n c e on
b o r r o w e d c a p i t a l in a c o n t e x t of h i g h i n t e r e s t r a t e s a n d - f o r e x te rn al
b o r r o w i n g s - h i g h r eal d e v a l u a t i o n c o s t s .
A t h i r d is l o w ca pa ci ty
u t i l i s a t i o n n ot f o r e s e e n w h e n t he p l a n t s w e r e b u i l t ( n o r u n t i l 1980-82 r e a ­
s o n a b l y f o r e s e e a b l e ) , as a r e s u l t of i m p o r t c a p a c i t y c o l l a p s e - a f a ct o r
w h o s e G DP m u l t i p l i e r l o ss is g r e a t e r w h e n t h e d i r e c t i m p o r t c o m p o n e n t
is lo w. R e l a t e d to t h i s is l o w g r o w t h of a g r i c u l t u r a l r a w m a t e r i a l p r o ­
ductio n, which limits im p o rt substitutio n a n d / o r capacity utilisation.
F o u r t h is p l a n t s t oo l a r g e f o r n a t i o n a l m a r k e t s , e i t h e r f r o m t he st ar t o r as
a r e s u l t of t h e 1980s' c o l l a p s e of m a r k e t g r o w t h . Fifth a re w h i t e e l e p h a n t s
w h i c h , e i t h e r i ni t i a l l y, o r w i t h c h a n g e d w o r l d r e l a t i v e p ri ce s, c a n n o t e v e r
be v i a b l e . S ixt h a r e uni t l a b o u r co st s. H e r e a d i c h o t o m y e xist s. In m u c h
o f F r a n c o p h o n e A f r i c a t h e s e a p p e a r to r e l a t e to t oo h i gh real w a g e s a n d ,
e s p e c i a l l y , s a l a r i e s . B ut in m u c h of A n g l o p h o n e a n d L u s o p h o n e A f r i c a ,
t h e r e v e r s e is t ru e: r eal w a g e s a n d s a l a r i e s a r e b e l o w t he m i n i m u m ' e f ­
f i c i e n c y w a g e ' . A s a r e s ul t , a b s e n t e e i s m , l o w m o r a l e , d i s i n c e n t i v e s to
i m p r o v e s ki ll s a nd thef t m a k e l o w e r w a g e s p e r w o r k e r r a i s e l a b o u r c o s t s
p e r u n i t o f o u t p u t . W o r k e r s - like f a r m e r s a n d m a n a g e r s - d o r e s p o n d to
e c o n o m i c i n c e n t i v e s ... a n d d i s i n c e n t i v e s .
E vidently the a p p ro p ria te re m e d ies for these causes vary. Only for 'white
e l e p h a n t s ' is s p e e d y l i q u i d a t i o n u n a m b i g u o u s l y s o u n d . Nor, f o r t he rest,
is i n s t a n t t r a d e l i b e r a l i s a t i o n - as o p p o s e d to p h a s e d l i b e r a l i s a t i o n s t a r t ­
i n g w i t h i n p u t s a n d g i v i n g t i m e f o r r e c u p e r a t i o n (as l a u n c h e d by
Z i m b a b w e in 1990) - l i k e l y to be o p t i m a l .
T h r e e n e w l in e s of s t r a t e g i c f o c u s a p p e a r a p p r o p r i a t e . First, p r e - e x p o r t
p r o c e s s i n g a n d m a n u f a c t u r i n g (e.g. c o c o a p a s t e / p o w d e r / b u t t e r / o i l , s a w n
t i m b e r / v e n e e r / p l y w o o d f u r n i t u r e p ar ts, l e a t h e r s h o e p a r t s / f i n i s h e d
le a th e r goods).
Second, b ro a d m a r k e t co nsu m e r, intermedia te, co n ­
s t r u c t i o n a n d s i m p l e c a pi t a l g o o d s . T h i r d , a g r o - i n d u s t r y bot h b r o a d e n i n g
d e m a n d f o r d o m e s t i c a g r i c u l t u r a l p r o d u c t s a n d i n c r e a s i n g e ff e ct i ve r u ra l
d e m a n d f o r m a n u f a c t u r e s . The s e c o n d a n d t h i r d c a t e g o r i e s w o u l d u s u ­
a l l y be h e l p e d by, a n d o ft en r e q u i r e , r e g i o n a l / s u b - r e g i o n a l m a r k e t s . F o r
t h e m to f l o u r i s h , e c o n o m i c i n t e g r a t i o n / c o o r d i n a t i o n m u s t go b e y o n d t a r i ff
p r e f e r e n c e s to l o ok at k n o w l e d g e , c o m m u n i c a t i o n s , t r a n s p o r t a nd g u i d ­
a n c e t o w a r d s p e c i a l i s a t i o n (and a w a y f r o m d u p l i c a t i v e s u r p l u s c a pa c i t y) .
A n d c o u n t r i e s w it h h i g h e r ini t ia l m a n u f a c t u r e d e x p o r t p o t e n t i a l - e.g.
K e n y a . Z i m b a b w e - m u s t r e m e m b e r t hat t h e b as ic p u r p o s e of e x p o r t s is
t o s e c u r e i m p o r t s a n d t ha t t h e i r S SA m a r k e t s h a ve no g r e a t a b i l i t y to
r a i s e r e g i o n a l i m p o r t s if t h e y h a v e to p ay in h a r d c u r r e n c y , a p o i n t al so
r e l e v a n t to t h e ' n e w ' S o u t h A f r i c a . V i g o r o u s , s u s t a i n e d t r a d e e x p a n s i o n
r e q u i r e s a t t e n t i o n to i d e n t i f y i n g p o t e n t i a l i m p o r t s ( w h i ch can i n c l u d e
t r a n s p o r t , e n e r g y a n d r a w m a t e r i a l s ) a n d m a k i n g t h e m a c tu al .
E n e r g y p o s e s t wo q u i t e d i f f e r e n t p r o b l e m s . The f irst is e x c e s s i v e d e ­
p e n d e n c e on p e t r o l e u m (in d i f f e r e n t w a y s f o r i m p o r t e r s a n d e x p o r t e r s ) .
F o r i m p o r t e r s , t hi s p o i n t s t o w a r d i n c r e a s e d use of h y d r o e l e c t r i c p o t e n t i a l
( n ot l east on a r e g i o n a l b a s i s as is b e g i n n i n g in S o u t h e r n A f r i c a ) , coal
( w h e n a v a i l a b l e ) a n d n a t u r a l g as ( f o un d in s e v e r a l St at es w i t h no p r o v e n
l i q u i d h y d r o c a r b o n s ) . F o r e x p o r t e r s , it i m p l i e s d i v e r s i f i c a t i o n - i n c l u d i n g ,
b u t n ot l i m i t e d to, n a t u r a l g as a n d its a m m o n i a / u r e a p r o d u c t , c o m p l e x
-
12
-
a n d s i m p l e p e t r o c h e m i c a l s - a n d b u i l d i n g u p e q u a l i s a t i o n r e s e r v e s in
f o r e i g n e x c h a n g e in g o o d y e a r s (e.g. 1990-91) to c u s h i o n a d j u s t m e n t to
p r i c e c o l l a p s e as in 1986 a n d 1988-89.
Th e o t h e r p r o b l e m - t h e l a r g e r o n e in t e r m s of e n e r g y u s e d a n d h o u s e ­
h o l d s a f f e c t e d d i r e c t l y - is w o o d f u el .
D e f o r e s t a t i o n is m a k i n g
w o o d / c h a r c o a l c o s t l i e r in cit ies, i n c r e a s i n g t h e w o r k l o a d of t h e ru ra l
w o m e n w h o c o l l e c t it a n d c o n t r i b u t i n g to s o i l e r o s i o n a n d n e o ­
d ese rtifica tio n. H o u seh o ld and c o m m u n ity a g r o - fo re s t ry can - o v e r time
- r e v e r s e t h i s t r e n d , u s u a l l y by m i x i n g f ue l, b u i l d i n g m a t e r i a l , f o d d e r and
f o o d p r o v i d i n g t r e e s . P u r e p l a n t a t i o n s m a y be s u i t a b l e f o r u r b a n f u e l l i n g
a n d f o r p u l p m i l l s b ut a r e an i n a p p r o p r i a t e t e c h n i c a l f ix f o r the
e c o l o g i c a l - r u r a l h o u s e h o l d f uel s c i s s o r s .
(3)
Poverty:
Access, P roductivity and People
By the most c o n s e rv a tiv e estimate. 3 0 % o f S u b - S a h a r a n a nd about
27.5% of all A fricans (including N o rth ern and South A fric a ) are abso­
l u t e l y p o o r as set o u t in t h e p u b l i s h e d t e x t of t h e 1990 W o r l d D e v e l o p ­
m e n t R e p o r t . On t h e s l i g h t l y less a u s t e r e b a s i s u s e d in a n e a r l i e r draft
of t h e r e p o r t , t h e p r o p o r t i o n c a m e to 4 0 % . O n e i t h e r d e f i n i t i o n it is r i s ­
i ng ;
a c h a r a c t e r i s t i c u n i q u e to A f r i c a ( b o t h S S A a n d all A f r i c a ) and
s h a r p l y d i v e r g e n t f r o m A s i a i n c l u d i n g its l a r g e , l o w - i n c o m e c o u n t r i e s .
N a t i o n a l l y , a b s o l u t e p o v e r t y r a n g e s f r o m o v e r 6 0 % (e.g. M o z a m b i q u e ,
E t h i o p i a , p r o b a b l y M a l a w i ) to u n d e r 2 0 % (e.g.
M a u ritiu s . Seychelles.
C a p e V e r d e a nd - o n a c o m p a r a b l e b a s i s - B o t s w a n a ) . T h e r e is a high
n e g a t i v e c o r r e l a t i o n w i t h w a r . Th e p o s i t i v e o n e w i t h o u t p u t p e r ca pi t a is
u n e v e n . S tat es w i t h d e m o n s t r a t e d p o l i c y c o n c e r n f o r r e l a t i v e e qu a l i t y,
o r at l e as t f o r e n s u r i n g m i n i m u m a c c e s s t o i n c o m e a n d s e r v i c e s f o r all
c i t i z e n s , e.g. T a n z a n i a , M o z a m b i q u e , C a p e V e r d e , B o t s w a n a , M a u r i t i u s
a n d Z i m b a b w e , d o b e t t e r on p o v e r t y i n d i c e s t h a n G D P p e r c a p i t a w o u l d
s u g g e s t ; a n d t h o s e w i t h no s u c h a p p l i e d c o n c e r n ( w h a t e v e r t h e i r r h e t o ­
ric) e.g. M a l a w i , A n g o l a , N i g e r i a . Z a m b i a , S o u t h A f r i c a , C a m e r o o n ,
S u d a n a n d E t h i o p i a ( o u t s i d e t he c o r e h i g h l a n d p r o v i n c e s ) d o s i g n i f i c a n t l y
worse.
Th e c a u s e s of a b s o l u t e p o v e r t y a r e b o t h s t r u c t u r a l a n d c o n j u n c t u r a l ; lack
of a c c e s s to l a nd , e m p l o y m e n t a n d / o r s k i l l s ( s t r u c t u r a l p o v e r t y ) a n d lack
of r e h a b i l i t a t i o n s u p p o r t a n d / o r s a fe t y n e t s d u r i n g , o r a f t e r , d i s a s t e r s ,
e.g. d r o u g h t a n d w a r at m a c r o - l e v e l , i l l n e s s , f i r e , i n j u r y o r d e a t h at
h o u s e h o l d le ve l ( c o n j u n c t u r a l ) .
H o w e v e r , in t h e a b s e n c e of l i v e l i h o o d
re h a b ilita tio n , c o n jun ctural p overty re la tive ly r a p id ly b e c o m e s structural
a n d p e r m a n e n t f o r m o s t of t h o s e a f f li c te d .
W h i l e h i g h e r o u t p u t p e r p e r s o n is n o g u a r a n t e e o f f a l l i n g a b s o l u t e p o v ­
e r t y , f a l l i n g G D P p e r c a p i t a in l o w p r o d u c t i v i t y e c o n o m i e s is a v i r t u a l
-
13
-
g u a r a n t e e o f r i s i n g a b s o l u t e p o v e r t y b o t h in total n u m b e r s a n d as a
p r o p o r t i o n of h o u s e h o l d s . Th e 1980-90 fall of 2 0 - 2 5 % in a v e r a g e A f r i c a n
r ea l GDP p e r c ap i ta is a m a j o r c a u s e of r i s i n g p o v e r t y ; t h e r e t u r n to r i s i n g
o u t p u t p e r p e r s o n of a b o u t hal f t he e c o n o m i e s in r e c e n t y e a r s is a s ig n
o f hop e.
S t r a t e g i e s f o r r e d u c i n g a b s o l u t e p o v e r t y res t on f o u r legs: e n a b l i n g p o o r
p e o p l e to b e m o r e p r o d u c t i v e ; a c h i e v i n g u n i v e r s a l a c c e s s to b a s i c s e r ­
vices
( h e al t h ,
education,
water,
extension);
im proving
basic
i n f r a s t r u c t u r e ; a n d p r o v i d i n g s a f e t y n e t s ( fa mi ly , c o m m u n i t y o r State) f o r
t h o s e w h o c a n n o t ( t e m p o r a r i l y o r p e r m a n e n t l y ) p r o d u c e m o r e . Th is is
no l o n g e r an a r ea of m a s s i v e d i s a g r e e m e n t in p r i n c i p l e . H o w e v e r , o n l y
the basic services and infrastructure co m p o n e n ts are even reasonably
well articulated.
H o w to d e v o t e e f fo r ts to r ai se s m a l l f a r m e r , m i c r o ­
e n t e r p r i s e a n d f o r m a l o r i n f o r m a l e m p l o y e e a b i l i t y to p r o d u c e is n e i t h e r
well researched nor effectively pursued.
Saf et y net s a r e - e x c e p t f o r
s u r v i v a l r e l i e f b a c k e d by f o o d a i d - still, o n b a l a n c e , f r a y i n g b e c a u s e
o v e r l o a d a n d soci al c h a n g e a r e b r e a k i n g f a m i l y s t r a n d s f a s t e r t h a n n e w
c o m m u n i t y o r state o n e s ca n be d e v i s e d a n d bui l t up.
F o o d i n s e c u r i t y is an a s p e c t of p o v e r t y a n d a m a r k of p e o p l e ' s v u l n e r ­
a b i l i t y to b e i n g p l u n g e d i nt o p o v e r t y .
M o d erate and severe child
m a l n u t r i t i o n in A f r i c a r a n g e s f r o m 2 5 % to n e a r l y 7 0 % (and s e v e r e f r o m
2 - 2 0 % ) . F o o d i m p o r t s h a v e r i s e n d r a m a t i c a l l y to a b o u t 6 % of all c a l o r i e s
( but up to 2 0 % in m o s t s e r i o u s f o o d d e f i c i t ca s es like M o z a m b i q u e ) a nd
- m o r e c r u c i a l - a r e d o m i n a n t l y f o o d aid b e c a u s e , w i t h f e w e x c e p t i o n s ,
m a s s i v e f o o d d e fi c i ts r e l a t e to o v e r a l l e c o n o m i c d i s a s t e r , not to s u c ­
c e s s f u l s p e c i a l i s a t i o n in n o n - f o o d p r o d u c t s .
B e c a u s e S SA ( i n d e e d A f r i c a ) has v e r y l i m i t e d a p p l i c a b l e k n o w l e d g e on
h o w to r a i s e p r o d u c t i v i t y t h r o u g h t e c h n o l o g i c a l c h a n g e , s h o r t - t e r m
m e a s u r e s n e e d to f o c u s on i n p u t s u p p l y , m a r k e t a c c e s s a n d e ff e ct iv e
m o b i l i s a t i o n a nd use of f o o d a i d n a t i o n a l l y , a n d on s m a l l f a r m e r e n a b l ­
i ng, d i s a s t e r v i c t i m l i v e l i h o o d r e h a b i l i t a t i o n a n d e m p l o y m e n t a u g m e n t a ­
t i o n ( i n c l u d i n g l a b o u r i n t e n s i v e p u b l i c w o r k s ) in r e s p e c t to h o u s e h o l d
f o o d s e c u r i t y e n t i t l e m e n t s f r o m p r o d u c t i o n (of f o o d o r i n c o m e to e x ­
c h a n g e f o r it).
W o m e n - e s p e c i a l l y f e m a l e - h e a d e d h o u s e h o l d s ( p e r h a p s 2 0 % of all
A f r i c a n h o u s e h o l d s ) - a r e d i s p r o p o r t i o n a t e l y r e p r e s e n t e d in t h e a b s o ­
lutely p o o r and food in secure categorie s.
In m a n y c o u n t r i e s , e.g.
M o z a m b i q u e a nd B o t s w a n a , t h e m a j o r i t y of a b s o l u t e l y p o o r h o u s e h o l d s
a r e f e m a l e - h e a d e d . W o m e n ' s w o r k l o a d in r u r a l a r e a s a n d l o w a c c e s s to
s k i l l s a n d / o r e m p l o y m e n t to be p r o d u c t i v e in u r b a n a r e a s , a r e m a j o r
b a r r i e r s to i n c r e a s i n g b o t h f o o d p r o d u c t i o n a n d p o o r u r b a n h o u s e h o l d
in com es. Concern a b o u t g e n d e r d iv isio n s o f labour, w o m e n 's exclusion
- 14 -
f r o m d e c i s i o n s a n d u n e q u a l a c c e s s to l a n d / s k i l l s / e m p l o y m e n t is not. in
A f r i c a , s i m p l y e g a l i t a r i a n , h u m a n i t a r i a n n o r - in a n y n a r r o w s e n s e f e m i n i s t . It is c e n t r a l to t h e r e d u c t i o n o f n a t i o n a l a n d h o u s e h o l d f o od
i n s e c u r i t y , t h e n u m b e r o f h o u s e h o l d s e x i s t i n g in a b s o l u t e p o v e r t y a n d in a n u m b e r o f c a s e s - to s u b s t a n t i a l i n c r e a s e s in t h e r a t e o f g r o w t h of
pro du ctio n .
A r t i c u l a t i o n of a c t i o n l a g s b e h i n d t h e a c c e p t a n c e o f t h e n e e d f o r it. Data
o n f e m a l e - h e a d e d h o u s e h o l d s - let a l o n e t h e i r p e r c e p t i o n s of t h e i r n ee d s
a n d c a p a b i l i t i e s - is l i m i t e d ; p r o v i s i o n of v o c a t i o n a l t r a i n i n g , of e x t e n s i o n
s e r v i c e s a n d of e m p l o y m e n t is still o ft en u n a b l e ( a l m o s t l i t e r a l l y ) to see
w o m e n . However, d rive s tow ard universal literacy and basic education
a n d h e a l t h s e r v i c e s d o b e n ef i t w o m e n d i s p r o p o r t i o n a t e l y b e c a u s e t he y
h a v e h a d t h e least a c c e s s t o t h e m a n d b e c a u s e t h e b u r d e n of c a r i n g f o r
t h e s i c k f a l l s p r i m a r i l y on t h e m . S i m i l a r l y , a c c e s s i b l e p u r e w a t e r s u p p l i e s
and w o o d fu e l save p rim a rily w o m e n 's and g irls ' tim e and offer clear po­
t e n t i a l b o t h f o r i m p r o v i n g c h i l d c a r e a n d i n c r e a s e d p r o d u c t i o n at peak
a g r i c u l t u r a l s e a s o n s . In m a n y A f r i c a n c o u n t r i e s t h e s e r e a l i t i e s a r e bei ng
p e r c e i v e d a n d , to a d e g r e e , a c t ed u p o n , a n d w o m e n ' s s e l f - o r g a n i z a t i o n
f o r p r o d u c t i o n is a d v a n c i n g . W h i l e t h e d r i v i n g f o r c e is f r e q u e n t l y w o m ­
e n ' s g r o u p s , p r o g r e s s is c l e a r l y less s l o w a n d p a i n f u l w h e n t h e State a l ­
l o c a t e s r e s o u r c e s , p r o v i d e s an e n a b l i n g l e g a l f r a m e w o r k a n d s eek s to
a l t e r t r a d i t i o n a l l i m i t i n g p e r c e p t i o n s of w o m e n ' s r o l e s .
A f r i c a is t h e m o s t e n v i r o n m e n t a l l y a t r i s k c o n t i n e n t . U n f o r t u n a t e l y , as
w i t h d e b t , it is not a m a j o r t h r e a t to t h e o z o n e l a y e r o r c o m p a r a b l e to
N o r t h o r S o u t h A m e r i c a , East A s i a o r E u r o p e in its ' c o n t r i b u t i o n ' to gl obal
w a r m i n g . T h u s it t e n d s to be m a r g i n a l i s e d in g l o b a l r e s e a r c h a nd r e ­
s o u r c e a l l o c a t i o n . In t ha t se ns e , w i l d l i f e a n d w i l d e r n e s s c o n s e r v a t i o n i s t s
a r e a b l e s s i n g - t h e y d o k e e p S SA o n t h e w o r l d e n v i r o n m e n t a l a ge n d a .
D eforestation (in c lu d in g bushes and sh ru bs), soil e ro s io n and neo­
d e s e r t i f i c a t i o n a r e a d v a n c i n g at a l a r m i n g r a t e s w i t h s o m e d a m a g i n g cl i­
m a t i c s h i ft s a l r e a d y b r u t a l l y e v i d e n t (e.g. t h e l e n g t h a n d i n t e n s i t y of the
H a r m a t t a n o n t he W e s t A f r i c a n c o as t h as t r e b l e d o v e r t h e p as t 30 ye ar s
in w a y s p e r f e c t l y v i s i b l e to a n y o n e w h o v i s i t s at i n t e r v a l s a n d has a
c o m p a r a t i v e , m e n t a l - s n a p s h o t m e m o r y - b a n k ) . T h e k ey i m m e d i a t e cause
f o r m o s t e n v i r o n m e n t a l d a m a g e is n e e d , a n d t h e w o r s t d a m a g e r s are
p o o r h o u s e h o ld s w h o must d estro y n o w to s u rv iv e now, even though
t h e y k n o w (and c a r e ) t h a t t h e i r a c t i o n s l i m i t a n d e n d a n g e r t h e i r a n d t h e i r
ch ild re n's future livelihoods.
T h e i m p l i c a t i o n s f o r s t r a t e g y a r e c le a r : i n p u t s of k n o w l e d g e , t o o l s and
f e r t i l i s e r , to e n a b l e p o o r f a r m i n g h o u s e h o l d s to g r o w m o r e w i t h o u t d a m ­
a g i n g t h e l a n d , a r e c r u c i a l . L o w t i l l a g e , i n t e r - c r o p p i n g a n d r e d u c i n g na­
ke d soil s u r f a c e s a r e e x a m p l e s . S i m i l a r l y , h o u s e h o l d , c o - o p e r a t i v e and
s m a l l c o m m u n i t y t r e e a n d b u s h p l a n t i n g b a s e d o n m e e t i n g f uel, b u i l d i n g
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15
-
m a t e r i a l , f o d d e r a n d f o o d n e e d s can - as d e m o n s t r a t e d in a n u m b e r of
E t h i o p i a n a nd T a n z a n i a n c as es - a c h i e v e r a p i d s u p p o r t b e c a u s e it
d e m o n s t r a b l y e n h a n c e s p r e s e n t l i v e l i h o o d s as we l l as p r o t e c t i n g f u t u r e
o n e s t h r o u g h e r o s i o n c o n t r o l a n d r e d u c t i o n of n e o - d e s e r t i f i c a t i o n d a n ­
g e r s . W h e r e t h e r e is m a s s i v e i n e q u a l i t y in a c c es s to l a n d, so t o o d o e s
l a n d r e f o r m d e s i g n e d to b r o a d e n a c c e s s to l a nd a n d to e n h a n c e s e c u r i t y
of t e n u r e .
B u t , d e s p i t e s o m e k n o w l e d g e a n d s u c c e s s e s , t he e n v i r o n m e n t a l b at t l e is
still b e i n g lost. O n e r e a s o n is t h e r a p i d e x p a n s i o n of c r o p p i n g i nt o s u b ­
m a r g i n a l , e c o l o g i c a l l y f r a g i l e a r e a s a n d t h e c o n s e q u e n t i a l p u s h i n g of
l i v e s t o c k r a i s i n g int o e v en m o r e d r o u g h t - p r o n e a n d v u l n e r a b l e e c o l o g i c a l
zones.
Both increase food insecurity fro m crop failure and animal
l o s s e s , a n d b ot h t h r e a t e n to c o n t i n u e t he r i s i n g t r e n d of e c o - d e s t r u c t i o n .
T h e i r b a s i c c a u s e is r a p i d p o p u l a t i o n g r o w t h in t h e a b s e n c e of a p a r a l l e l
a b i l i t y t o i n t e n s i f y a g r i c u l t u r e a n d r e d u c e r e q u i r e d f a l l o w y e a r rat i os.
A f r i c a n p o p u l a t i o n g r o w t h is e s t i m a t e d at a r o u n d 3 % , a l t h o u g h t h i s is
p r o b a b l y an o v e r - e s t i m a t e (just as p r e- 1 9 6 5 e s t i m a t e s w e r e u s u a l l y
u n d e r - e s t i m a t e s ) . Even if 2 . 7 5 % is t he real rate, it is e x c e s s i v e in r e s p e c t
to e c o l o g y , r e s o u r c e s f o r p r o v i d i n g b asi c s e r v i c e s f o r w o m e n ' s a n d c h i l ­
d r e n ' s h e al t h , a nd r e l a t i v e to a c h i e v e d l e v e l s / t r e n d s of a g r i c u l t u r a l p r o ­
ductivity.
To d a t e , p o p u l a t i o n p o l i c y has f o c u s e d on b i r t h c o n t r o l o r - m o r e in line
w i t h a c t u a l A f r i c a n p e r c e p t i o n s - b i r t h s p a c i n g / f a m i l y p l a n n i n g . T h i s has
h a d s o m e s u cc e s s , e s p e c i a l l y in m i d d l e - i n c o m e c o u n t r i e s a n d a m o n g
m i d d l e - i n c o m e g r o u p s . It is, h o w e v e r , i n c o m p l e t e . F a l l i n g i n f a n t m o r ­
tality, rising fe m a le literacy, r e d u c e d foo d in se c u rity and m o r e a s s u re d
o l d a g e s e c u r i t y a r e b o t h h i s t o r i c a l l y , a n d in A f r i c a , c l o s e l y a s s o c i a t e d
w i t h b i r t h r a t e d e c l i n e s . A c t i o n to p r o m o t e t h e m (as p ar t of a g e n e r a l
d r i v e to r e d u c e p o v e r t y ) w o u l d c r e a t e t he c o n d i t i o n s in w h i c h p r o v i d i n g
a c c e s s to f a m i l y p l a n n i n g k n o w l e d g e a n d t e c h n o l o g y w o u l d be f a r m o r e
d e s i r e d a n d e ff ec ti ve t h a n it can be t o d a y . F u r t h e r , n o n e of t h e m is c o n ­
t r o v e r s i a l , u n l i k e t h e r h e t o r i c of t h e t r u e b e l i e v e r s in b i r t h ra te r e d u c t i o n
at all c osts.
T h e e c o n o m i c i m p a c t of A I D S on S S A is c l e a r l y s e r i o u s a n d g r o w i n g . In
m o s t c o u n t r i e s b e t w e e n 3 % a n d 2 0 % of t h e a d u l t p o p u l a t i o n a r e p o s s i b l y
HI V s e r o p o s i t i v e . That p e r c e n t a g e is still r i s i n g . In s e v e r a l c o u n t r i e s '
h o s p i t a l s A I D S / A I D S - r e l a t e d d i s e a s e s a r e t he l a r g e s t c a us e of d e a t h in
t h e 15-50 a ge g r o u p . O v e r t h e 1990s t h e r e are l ik e l y to be up to f i ve
m i l l i o n A I D S o r p h a n s (up to 4 0 % d o o m e d f r o m b i rt h ) a nd 10 m i l l i o n A I D S
d e a t h s . The h u m a n , h o u s e h o l d , e c o n o m i c a n d s oci al c os ts a r e o n l y t oo
evid ent.
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16
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T h e i m p a c t on p o p u l a t i o n a n d l a b o u r f o r c e is le ss c l e a r . Ef fect ive a cti on
a g a i n s t m a l n u t r i t i o n a n d m a l a r i a c o u l d r e d u c e d e a t h s m o r e t h a n AI DS is
l i k e l y to r a i s e t h e m . H o w fast p r a c t i c e s c o n d u c i v e t o HI V t r a n s m i s s i o n
a r e c h a n g i n g is u n c l e a r , as is t he f u t u r e t r a j e c t o r y of i n f e c t i o n w i t h o u t
s u c h c h a n g e s . So, t o o , is t h e d a t e of d e v e l o p m e n t of a n e f f e c t i v e v a c c i n e
o r t h e r a p y f o r t h e i n f e c t e d . V i s i o n s of m o r e t h a n l o c a l d e p o p u l a t i o n are
a s u n r e a l i s t i c as t h o s e w h i c h s a y A I D S is b a s i c a l l y a n o r t h e r n p r o b l e m
a n d of m i n o r c o n c e r n to A f r i c a . M o r e r e l e v a n t is t h e w a r n i n g t hat Af ri ca
is of m i n o r c o n c e r n t o t h o s e d e v e l o p i n g v a c c i n e s a n d d r u g s ; A f r i c a n s
a r e t o o p o o r a n d m a r g i n a l to r e n d e r t h e e x p l o i t a t i o n of t h e m a n d t h e i r
d ise ase patterns w id e ly attractive - w h e th e r f o r e c o n o m ic gain or intel­
lectual kudos.
(4)
External E conom ic R e la tion s h ip s: P e s s im is tic P ro b le m a tic ?
Th e w o r l d e c o n o m y s i n c e 1960 has - w i t h b r i e f e x c e p t i o n s - e v o l v e d in
w a y s d i s t i n c t l y u n h e l p f u l to A f r i c a . In t h e 1980s, t h e p u r c h a s i n g p o w e r
in t e r m s of i m p o r t s of m o s t m a j o r A f r i c a n n o n - o i l e x p o r t s fell by 5 0 % and
f o r oil ( g r a n t e d f r o m a h i g h s t a r t i n g p o i n t ) t h e s l u m p to m i d - 1 9 9 0 was
a b o u t as g r e a t . M a n y e c o n o m i e s h a v e l ost u p to a t e n t h of t h e p u r c h a s ­
i n g p o w e r of t h e i r n a t i o n a l p r o d u c t a n d a t h i r d of t h e i r i m p o r t c apa ci ty
as a r e s u l t .
W h i l e A f r i c a n e x p o r t s in p h y s i c a l t e r m s h a v e g r o w n b y p e r h a p s 3 % a
y e a r in t h e 1980s, a t u r n a r o u n d f r o m s t a g n a t i o n o r d e c l i n e in t h e 1970s.
f o r m o s t c o u n t r i e s t h i s has n ot b e e n e n o u g h to o f fs e t t e r m s of t r a de
sh if ts , so t h a t e a r n e d i m p o r t c a p a c i t y h as a c t u a l l y f a l l e n .
B e c a u s e p r i v a t e a n d c o m m e r c i a l c a p i t a l i n f l o w s h a v e , o v e r t h e s a m e p e­
r i o d , g o n e n e g a t i v e a n d d e b t s e r v i c e a c t u a l l y p a i d r i s e n , by 1989, to
$17. 8 b i l l i o n ( 2 3 % o f $76 b i l l i o n e x p o r t s ) , e v e n t h e 4 % ( 1 % p e r capita)
a n n u a l r eal ri se of O f fi ci al D e v e l o p m e n t A s s i s t a n c e d i s b u r s e m e n t s c o n ­
c e n t r a t e d in t he f i r st y e a r s of t he d e c a d e a n d t h e b u i l d - u p of m a s s i v e a r ­
r e a r s ( o n l y a b o u t h a l f p r e - r e s c h e d u l i n g d e b t s e r v i c e is in f a c t b e i ng
p a i d ) h a v e , at best, a v e r t e d i m p o r t c u ts f o r m o s t A f r i c a n e c o n o m i e s . Cuts
of u p to 5 0 % ( 6 7 % p e r c a p i t a ) b e l o w late 1970s l e v e l s h a v e , n o n e t h e l e s s ,
b e e n r e c o r d e d f o r s o m e c o u n t r i e s in s o m e y e a r s . T h i s h a s b r o u g h t a b i l ­
ity t o i n v e s t , m a i n t a i n a n d o p e r a t e p r o d u c t i v e a n d i n f r a s t r u c t u r a l ca paci ty
d o w n to l e v e l s w h i c h , in s e v e r a l c a s es , c a n o n l y be t e r m e d i m po r t
strangulation.
W o r s e , t h e r e a r e no c l e a r w a y s out . T e r m s of t r a d e f o r m o s t A f r i c a n ex­
p o r t s c a n n o t r e a l i s t i c a l l y be e x p e c t e d t o r e c o v e r s i g n i f i c a n t l y in the
1990s. F o r m a n y , w o r l d p r i c e e l a s t i c i t i e s a r e so l o w t h a t f o r A f r i c a as a
w h o l e , l a r g e r e x p o r t v o l u m e s w o u l d m e a n l o w e r e a r n i n g s . Th is brutal
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17
-
f act has b ee n r e p e a t e d l y u n d e r p l a y e d
F r a s e r C o m m i s s i o n ' s UN R e p o r t .
by t h e W o r l d B a n k a n d
in the
To r e g a i n s u s t a i n a b l e e x t e r n a l b a l a n c e - e v e n w it h s l o w l y r i s i n g O D A
f l o w s a n d r e s c h e d u l i n g of d e b t - S S A e c o n o m i e s n eed to d e v e l o p n e w
exports.
In g e n e r a l , t h e s e lie in p r o c e s s i n g o r m a n u f a c t u r i n g s u i t a b l e
r a w m a t e r i a l s (e.g. l o gs , h i d e s a n d s ki ns , c a c a o b ea ns) b e f o r e e x p o r t ;
e xploitin g potential for new raw m aterials-based exports with better
p r o s p e c t s (e.g. h o r t i c u l t u r e , f e r t i l i s e r s b a s e d on n a t u r a l gas a n d s e l e c t e d
o t h e r m a n u f a c t u r e d p r o d u c t s - i n c l u d i n g c a p i t a l g o o d s ) p r i m a r i l y , but not
w h o l l y , t o r e g i o n a l m a r k e t s . In p r a c t i c e , n e i t h e r s t r a t e g i e s , d at a b as e s
o r i n s t i t u t i o n s f or s u c h a n e x p o r t t r a n s f o r m a t i o n h a v e b e e n b e g u n in
m o s t A f r i c a n c o u n t r i e s , n o r d o t h e y f i g u r e on W o r l d B a n k s t r a t e g i c
agendas.
E x t e r n a l d e b t n o w s t a n d s at n e a r l y $300 b i l l i o n (SSA $175 b i l l i o n , N o r t h
A f r i c a $100 b i l l i o n , R S A $25 b i l l i o n ) . If f u l l y s e r v i c e d it w o u l d eat up o v e r
$30 b i l l i o n of total e x p o r t s of t he o r d e r of $80 b i l l i o n a n d a b o u t 1 5 % of
G DP .
C l e a r l y f u l l d e b t s e r v i c e is an ' a l t e r n a t i v e ' to s u r v i v a l a n d g r o w t h . The
p r e s e n t u n e a s y c o m p r o m i s e of 5 0 - 6 0 % s e r v i c i n g , 2 0 - 2 5 % r e s c h e d u l i n g
a n d 1 5 - 2 5 % a r r e a r s b u i l d - u p c a n n o t last, e v e n if it is c u r r e n t l y less d a m ­
a g i n g t h a n e i t h e r o p e n d e f a u l t o r full p a y m e n t . A t l e a s t an a v e r a g e 5 0 %
w r i t e - o f f ( f r o m 0 % f o r B o t s w a n a , L i b y a a n d M a u r i t i u s to n e a r 1 0 0 % f o r
M o z a m b i q u e . T a n z a n i a a n d S u d a n ) is n e c e s s a r y if s u s t a i n e d r e c o v e r y of
A f r i c a n g r o w t h a n d g r o w t h of i n d u s t r i a l e c o n o m y e x p o r t s to A f r i c a (es ­
p e c i a l l y SSA ) is to be a c h i e v e d ,
fn the i n t e r i m , b r o a d e r ( i n c l u d i n g all
d e b t de j u r e o r de fact o), s o f t e r (li ttle o r no c u r r e n t p a y m e n t f o r s e v e r a l
y e a r s ) , l o n g e r (all 1990s p a y m e n t s d u e c o v e r e d in o ne r e s c h e d u l i n g
e x e r c i s e f o r t he m o s t d e b t - d i s t r e s s e d ) r e s c h e d u l i n g w o u l d s av e s c a r c e
p e r s o n n e l t i m e a n d e n a b l e c o h e r e n t f o r w a r d p l a n n i n g by A f r i c a n
g o v e rn m e n ts and th e ir external co o p e ra tin g partners.
T h e 1991 ' T r i n i d a d t e r m s ' a r e a st ep t o w a r d r e d u c t i o n s of t h e n e c e s s a r y
o r d e r of m a g n i t u d e . B a s i c a l l y , t h e y call f o r 5 0 % w ri t e - of f s f o r all offici al
d e b t (a nd i m p l i c i t l y f o r p a r a l l e l ' B r a d y ' t y p e a c t i o n on c o m m e r c i a l b a n k
d e b t ) in r e s p e c t of d e b t - d i s t r e s s e d l o w - i n c o m e c o u n t r i e s . The p r e c e d e n t s
( h o w e v e r v e h e m e n t l y t h i s is d e n i e d ) a n d m o d e l s are e v i d e n t l y P o l a n d
a n d Egy pt . T h e r e i n lies t he p r o b l e m . B o t h a r e d e b t - d i s t r e s s e d l o w e r
m id d le income-countries.
T h e i r S SA a n a l o g u e s a r e N i g e r i a , Co te
d 'Ivoire
and
Kenya,
not
Tanzania,
Mozambique,
Somalia
a nd
Madagascar.
If t h e ' T r i n i d a d t e r m s ' w e r e to be m a d e a p p l i c a b l e to
d e b t-d is tre s se d m id d le -in c o m e countrie s, and 75-100% w rite -d o w n s
a g r e e d f o r d e b t - d i s t r e s s e d , l o w - i n c o m e c o u n t r i e s , o ne w o u l d at last be in
b u s i n e s s . C o n c e i v a b l y , t h e s o m e w h a t a m b i g u o u s w o r d s f r o m t h e 1991
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18
-
L o n d o n G7 m e e t i n g m a y r e p r e s e n t t h e b i r t h of t o p - i e v e l r e c o g n i t i o n ,
l i n k e d to w i l l i n g n e s s to c o n s i d e r a c t i o n in r e s p e c t of t h o s e r e a l it i es .
S i m i l a r l y , t he p r o b l e m of ' n o n - r e s c h e d u l a b i l i t y ' a n d ' n i l w r i t e - o f f a b i l i t y '
o f d e b t o w e d to t h e B a n k a n d t h e F u n d is b e i n g r e s o l v e d - e v e n if p a i n ­
f u l l y s l o w l y . Th e F u n d ' s E x t e n d e d S t r u c t u r a l A d j u s t m e n t F a c i l i t y (ESAF)
a n d t h e B a n k ' s n e w r e c o g n i t i o n of s e v e r a l S S A e c o n o m i e s as I n t e r n a ­
tional D e v e lo p m e n t A ssociatio n (IDA)-eligible help o v e r c o m e the 'term s'
p r o b l e m as do de f act o (e ve n if not d e j u r e ) r o l l - o v e r s . F u r t h e r , t he de
f a ct o ' b u y i n g u p ' of a r r e a r s to t h e F u n d a n d B a n k b y b i l a t e r a l d o n o r s
o p e n s a p o t e n t i a l a v e n u e f o r m o r e g e n e r a l l e s s e n i n g of F u n d / B a n k
o v e r h a n g s b e f o r e t h e y go int o a r r e a r s . S l o w as t h e p r o g r e s s is, 1991 is
v e r y d i f f e r e n t f r o m 1981 w h e n t he v e r y e x i s t e n c e of a g e n e r a l i s e d SSA
e x t e r n a l d e b t b u r d e n , w h i c h w a s c r i p p l i n g g r o w t h a n d w h i c h , in l arge
par t, c o u l d n e v e r be r e p a i d a n d n e e d e d w r i t i n g d o w n (not just
n o n - c o n c e s s i o n a l r e s c h e d u l i n g ) , w a s n ot m e r e l y a m i n o r i t y p e r s p e c t i v e
but a v i r t u a l l y n o n - e x i s t e n t one.
G r o s s O D A to S S A has r i s e n by a b o u t 4 % a y e a r in t h e 1980s (but c o n ­
c e n t r a t e d in 1981-84) to $15 b i l l i o n a n d , f o r all A f r i c a , t o p e r h a p s $22.5
b i l l i o n . At net l eve l it is of t he o r d e r of $12. 5 a n d $17. 5 b i l l i o n r e s p e c ­
t i v e l y . W i t h i n t h o s e t o t a l s p e r h a p s 3 0 % is t e c h n i c a l a s s i s t a n c e - l a rg e l y
s p e n t on d o n o r p e r s o n n e l - a n d 2 0 % d i s a s t e r r e li ef .
Th at O D A h a s a v e r t e d w o r s e e c o n o m i c d e c l i n e in S S A is n ot r e a l l y open
to d i s p u t e . N o r i n d e e d is t he n e e d f o r its g r o w t h by 5 0 % in t he 1990s.
as p r o p o s e d by t h e LTPS. But its n a t u r e a n d m a k e - u p a t p r e s e n t a r e f ar
f r o m o p t i m a l . To o m u c h is p r o v i d e d a n d o p e r a t e d by d o n o r s a c c o r d i n g
to t h e i r o w n p e r c e p t i o n s of w h a t is n e e d e d a n d of t h e w a y s to a tt a i n this,
w i t h o u t t r u l y c h a n n e l l i n g t h r o u g h A f r i c a n r e g i o n a l , n a t i o n a l a n d local in­
s t i t u t i o n s . To o m u c h t e c h n i c a l a s s i s t a n c e g o e s to p r o v i d i n g d o n o r n a­
t i o n a l s w i t h w o r k a n d t o o little g o e s to t r a i n i n g A f r i c a n s ( e s p e c i a l l y in
Africa). As a result. O DA - h o w e v e r in te n d e d - often d ecapacitates. cre­
a t i n g t he n e e d f o r its o w n c o n t i n u a t i o n r a t h e r t h a n c o n t r i b u t i n g to na­
tional institutio nal, decision -ta kin g and p e rs o n n e l ca pa citie s and allowing
s t a b i l i s a t i o n a n d g r a d u a l r e d u c t i o n of d e p e n d e n c e o n e x t e r n a l a s s i s t ­
ance.
UNPAAERD Revisited
In its e a r l y y e a r s , a UN d e v e l o p m e n t f u n d w a s p r o p o s e d u n d e r t h e t it le UN
F u n d f o r E c o n o m i c D e v e l o p m e n t , o r UNFE D. P o s s i b l y w i s e r in a c r o n y m s than
t o d a y , t h e p o w e r s - t h a t - b e a l t e r e d t h i s to S p e c i a l UN F u n d f o r E c o n o m i c De­
v e l o p m e n t , o r S UN FE D .
H o w e v e r , s o l a r p o w e r p r o v e d i n a d e q u a t e and
-
!9
-
U N F E D it w a s!
It is h a r d not to s u g g e s t an a n a l o g o u s a m e n d m e n t to
U N P A A E R D : UN P r o g r a m m e f o r A f r i c a n I n t e r n a l D e v e l o p m e n t , o r U N P A I D .
T h e m i n i m u m n e t e x t e r n a l t r a n s f e r s e s t i m a t e d in A PPER, a n d in all
1 9 8 1 - o n w a r d W o r l d B a n k r e v i e w s of S SA, h a v e s i m p l y n o t h a p p e n e d . N e t
r e a l p e r capita tra nsfe rs o v e r the UNPAAERD p e r io d have d e clin e d by a bo u t
2 % a y e a r . T h e r e is s o m e t h i n g in t h e a r g u m e n t t ha t t hi s is a r e s u l t of s e l e c ­
t i v i t y : t h o s e c o u n t r i e s a d o p t i n g a n d m a i n t a i n i n g S A P s w i t h B a n k / F u n d s eal s
of a p p r o v a l ( or a u t h o r s h i p ) h a v e h ad r i s i n g real p e r c a p i t a net t r a n s f e r s :
t h o s e w i t h o u t ( e v e n w h e n - e.g. Z i m b a b w e - t h e y had d o m e s t i c a l l y d e s i g n e d
S A P s . 4 % g r o w t h rates, n e a r b a l a n c e on c u r r e n t a c c o u n t , s u b s t a n t i a l e x p o r t
a n d f o o d p r o d u c t i o n g r o w t h r a t es a n d i n f l a t i o n no w o r s e t h a n m a n y a p p r o v e d
S A P c o u n t r i e s ) h a ve not. I n d e e d , as a g r o u p t h e y h a v e h ad f al l s in a b s o l u t e ,
n o m i n a l net r e s o u r c e i n fl ows . A c o m b i n a t i o n of m o r e a c c e p t a n c e in c e r t a i n
A f r i c a n St at es of t he need f o r c o h e r e n t , s u s t a i n a b l e e c o n o m i c p o l i c y a n d by
t h e i n t e r n a t i o n a l c o m m u n i t y of m o r e f l e x i b i l i t y a n d c o n t e x t u a l i t y of n a t i o n a l
p r o g r a m m e s m i g h t s e e m to s u g g e s t t ha t, o v e r t h e U N P A A E R D p e r i o d , a 4 %
a y e a r ( 1 % p e r c api ta) i n c r e a s e in real p e r c a p i t a t r a n s f e r s w a s r e a d i l y a t ­
t a i n a b l e . A p p r o v e d SAP h o l d e r s s e e m to h a v e a v e r a g e d a b o u t 6 % ( 3 % p e r
c a p i t a ) r eal g r o w t h d u r i n g p r o g r a m m e y e a r s . O n e m u s t, h o w e v e r , w o n d e r c e r t a i n l y , in p r a c t i c e , t he B a n k d o e s . R e a l l o c a t i n g r e s o u r c e s is o n e t h i n g ;
e x p a n d i n g t h e m is q ui t e a n o t h e r . T h e e v i d e n t n e e d f o r f u n d s - a d m i t t e d l y to
a s u b s t a n t i a l e x t e n t i n v e s t m e n t a n d t r a d e c r e d i t , not soft aid - in r e s p e c t of
C e n t r a l a n d Eas te rn E u r o p e a n c o u n t r i e s a n d , at s o m e s t ag e, in r e s p e c t of
G u l f / M i d d l e East r e c o n s t r u c t i o n , m e a n s t h e r e is a m p l e r e a s o n f o r d o u b t until
t h e f u n d i n g is not m e r e l y p l e d g e d but b e i n g d e l i v e r e d .
T h e o n e real g r o w t h a r ea in aid to S S A o v e r t h e past hal f d e c a d e s e e m s to
h a v e b e e n t e c h n i c a l a s s i s t a n c e (TA). D o u b t l e s s usef ul in s o m e c ases a n d
e s s e n t i a l in c e r t a i n n e a r - b r e a k d o w n c o n t e x t s , t h i s g r o w t h is, n o n e t h e l e s s ,
h i g h l y p r o b l e m a t i c in s t r u c t u r a l i m p a c t .
T h is has n o w r e a c h e d t he p oi n t
w h e r e technical assistance salaries exceed national public service pay-rolls
in s e v e r a l St at es, a n d w h e r e e x p a t r i a t e t e a m s r e p o r t to each o t h e r a n d to
d o n o r s , b ut o n l y n o m i n a l l y to h os t g o v e r n m e n t s e v e n t h o u g h t h e y p la y m a j o r
o p e r a t i o n a l r o le s . W h a t e v e r e ls e t h i s m a y be, it is d e c a p a c i t a t i n g .
T w e n t y p e r ce nt less TA s a l a r y a l l o c a t i o n s , s w i t c h e d to be m a d e a v a i l a b l e to
n a t i o n a l t r e a s u r i e s to p ay an a g r e e d set of s a l a r y a n d w a g e s i n c r e a s e s ,
w o u ld have a capacitating and p ro d u c tiv ity -ra is in g potential. While some
d o n o r s a d m i t t h i s in p r i v a t e , t h e t o p i c still s e e m s to be f a r f r o m r e a c h i n g s e ­
r i o u s n e g o t i a t i n g a g e n d a s e v e n in t h e m o s t a s t o u n d i n g i m b a l a n c e c ases ,
s u c h as T a n z a n i a o r M o z a m b i q u e , w h e r e c i t i z e n s can (and do) r a i s e t h e i r i n ­
c o m e s o v e r 2 5- fol d by l e a v i n g t h e p u b l i c s e r v i c e a n d w o r k i n g f o r a i d a g e n ­
c i e s e i t h e r as staff m e m b e r s o r - m o r e t y p i c a l l y - as i n d e p e n d e n t c o n s u l t a n t s
o r d o m e s t i c ' n o n - g o v e r n m e n t a l o r g a n i z a t i o n s ' . O n e o b s t a c l e is i n e r t i a a n d
a n o t h e r t h e g h o s t of t he ' c a p i t a l co st s: g o o d / r e c u r r e n t costs: b a d ' s y n d r o m e
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20
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t ha t p r e v a i l e d u nt i l t he m i d - 1 9 8 0 s . F o r m a i n t e n a n c e ( of t en d i s g u i s e d as c a p ­
ital), i m p o r t s (e.g. of d r u g s ) a n d , in t h e c a s e of f o o d a i d / i m p o r t s u p p o r t ,
c o u n t e r p a r t f u n d s m o r e w i d e l y , t ha t v i e w h as e r o d e d . B u t it still s e e m s to
mean that international agencie s, d o n o r g o v e r n m e n ts and s o m e NGOs prefer
t o b r i n g in t h e i r o w n p e o p l e (or, e v e n w o r s e , b u y o u t g o v e r n m e n t s e rv a n t s )
to d o a j o b r a t h e r t h a n to d e v e l o p c a p a c i t a t i n g s c h e m e s i n v o l v i n g c o ­
o p e r a t i o n in n a t i o n a l l y d e s i g n e d i n c e n t i v e p r o g r a m m e s .
E x o g e n o u s e v e n t s h a v e b e e n d i r e . N a t u r a l d i s a s t e r s - o v e r a l l - d o not f i g u r e
p r o m i n e n t l y . ( D r o u g h t w a s less p r e v a l e n t o v e r 1985-90 t h a n o v e r 1970-79, let
a l o n e 1980-84.) W o r l d m a r k e t s d o. T e r m s o f t r a d e d e c l i n e s o v e r 1986-90
r e d u c e d i m p o r t c a p a c i t y m o r e t h a n n e t r e s o u r c e t r a n s f e r s r a i s e d it. Th is was
p a r t i c u l a r l y t h e c a s e f o r l o w - i n c o m e e c o n o m i e s . T r u e , t h i s w a s n ot w i l l f u l l y
c a u s e d by N o r t h e r n e c o n o m i e s (nor, i n d e e d , e x p e c t e d b y t h e m in 1985).
E q u a l l y t r u e , it d o e s n ot in p r a c t i c e r e la t e p r i m a r i l y to n e o - l i b e r a l p o l i c y a d ­
v i ce . G h a n a a n d C o t e d ' I v o i r e w o u l d , f o r d i v e r g e n t r e a s o n s , h a v e m o r e o r
less d o u b l e d t h e i r c o c o a o u t p u t o v e r 1983-90 w i t h d i s a s t r o u s c o n s e q u e n c e s
e v e n h a d no o u t s i d e r a d v i s e d t h e m to d o so. ( I n d e e d in t h a t r e s p e c t , 1983-90
is a r e r u n of 1957-64 as to n a t i o n a l p o l i c y a n d p r a x i s , a n d as to W o r l d B a n k
a d v i c e a n d to w o r l d c o c o a m a r k e t p r i c e r e s u l t s ) .
But U N P A A E R D was a
broad m a cro e con o m ic projection model whose e x p o rt e a rn in g s assum ptions
w e r e a k e y d e t e r m i n a n t o f it s a t t a i n a b i l i t y . In a c o n t e x t in w h i c h t h e s e w e r e
f a l s i f i e d , t h e N o r t h d i d h a v e s o m e o b l i g a t i o n to go b a c k to t h e d r a f t i n g b o a r d
as s e v e r a l A f r i c a n St at es s u g g e s t e d . O n l y in t h e c a s e of G h a n a , w h e r e the
C o n s u l t a t i v e G r o u p f a i r l y e x p l i c i t l y r a i s e d f u n d i n g a f t e r 1 9 8 8 ' s b e g i n n i n g of
full s c a l e c o c o a p r i c e c o l l a p s e , has t h i s c l e a r l y h a p p e n e d .
To p ut t h i s c ase is n ot n e c e s s a r i l y to r e - r a i s e t h e t a t t e r e d Fi r st W i n d o w
C o m m o n Fund banner: a global Stabex; low c o n d itio n a lity , fast disbursing,
a d d i t i o n a l I MF d r a w i n g r i g h t s on t h e ESAF m o d e l ;
a d d i t i o n a l b al a n c e - o f p a y m e n t s s u p p o r t ; t r a d e l i b e r a l i s a t i o n on t r o p i c a l p r o d u c t s ;
p r o j e c t and
p r o g r a m m e s u p p o r t f o r e x p o r t d i v e r s i f i c a t i o n (in p r a c t i c e , t h e m o s t u n d e r ­
f u n d e d of all m a j o r e c o n o m i c s e c t o r s ) s i n g l y o r t o g e t h e r w o u l d h a v e been
(a nd r e m a i n t o d a y ) a l t e r n a t i v e s . B u t to sa y - in w o r d s , o r b y n ot p r o v i d i n g
r e s o u r c e s o r e m p o w e r m e n t to r a i s e e x p o r t e a r n i n g s - t h a t all c o r r e c t i v e
a c t i o n s h o u l d fall on S S A S t at e s m a d e a n d m a k e s no s e n s e in t e r m s of the
U N P A A E R D a n a l y s i s a n d its i m p l i c i t c o n t r a c t .
W a r w a s n o t f a c t o r e d i n t o U N P A A E R D . I n d e e d it is v e r y r a r e l y f a c t o r e d into
n a t i o n a l , let a l o n e e x t e r n a l , e c o n o m i c a n a l y s e s in a n y s y s t e m a t i c w a y . In
p ar t, at l east, it w a s - a n d is - an e x o g e n o u s e v e n t w h i c h t h e N o r t h c o u l d a l ­
l e v i a t e in m o s t c as es . T h e r o o t c a u s e of t he S o u t h e r n A f r i c a n w a r bill is e x ­
t e r n a l i n t e r v e n t i o n p r i m a r i l y by S o u t h A f r i c a , s e c o n d a r i l y b y t h e USA.
W h a t e v e r t h e e x a c t n a t u r e of t h e A n g o l a n c o n f l i c t , it w o u l d h a v e b ee n r e ­
s o l v e d b e f o r e 1980 h ad S o u t h A f r i c a not c h o s e n to i n t e r v e n e a n d t h e USA to
v i e w a p p e a l s to M o s c o w a n d H a v a n a f o r o f f s e t t i n g s u p p o r t as an o p p o r t u n i t y
-
21
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to e n g a g e in p r o x y wa r. M o z a m b i q u e is an e v e n c l e a r e r case. Th e civil and
r e g i o n a l w a r s of t he H o r n h a v e f a r d e e p e r d o m e s t i c a nd r e g i o n a l r o o ts , but
t h e y , t o o . h a v e b ee n e s c a l a t e d (and p r o b a b l y p r o l o n g e d ) m a s s i v e l y by e x ­
t e r n a l g e o - p o l i t i c a l a c to r s .
T h e - q u i t e r e c e n t - N o r t h e r n c o n t r i b u t i o n of a d v i s i n g m i l i t a r y s p e n d i n g r e ­
d u c t i o n s w i t h r e s o u r c e t r a n s f e r s a n c t i o n s to l e n d w e i g h t to t he a d v i c e - e v e n
if b a c k e d up by c u r b i n g a r m s s a l e s m e n - is a r a t h e r b l u n t i n s t r u m e n t . S e r i o u s
e n g a g e m e n t in c o nf li c t l i m i t a t i o n a n d r e s o l u t i o n o n a m o r e s o p h i s t i c a t e d b a ­
sis w o u l d s e e m m o r e l i k e l y to be eff ec ti ve , a n d w a s n o t a b l y a b s e n t o v e r
1985-90 w i t h t h e v e r y p ar t i a l e x c e p t i o n of p r o v i d i n g a c o v e r f o r S o ut h A f r i c a n
e v a c u a t i o n of A n g o l a a n d N a m i b i a f o l l o w i n g its c r u s h i n g d ef e a t s in t he
1987-88 C u i t o C a n a v a l e c a m p a i g n . F o r e x a m p l e , J a p a n ' s p r o p o s a l to l i nk its
a i d c o n t r i b u t i o n to l e ve ls of m i l i t a r y s p e n d i n g is s i m p l i s t i c in t h e S SA c o n ­
t ex t . S e c u r i t y - d e m o b i l i s a t i o n - r e h a b i l i t a t i o n a r e a l l p r e c o n d i t i o n s f o r m a j o r
s p e n d i n g c ut s. A n of fe r to m e e t d e m o b i l i s a t i o n ( b a s i c a l l y a p a y m e n t f o r s o l ­
d i e r s of all f a c t i o n s to t u r n in a r m s a n d a c c e p t d i s c h a r g e ) , t r a i n i n g a n d r u r a l
l i v e l i h o o d r e s t o r a t i o n c o s t s w o u l d f u r t h e r t h e s t a t e d g oa l, be r e l a t i v e l y s i m p l e
f o r S S A St at es to d e s i g n a n d o p e r a t e , p r o v i d e real i n c e n t i v e s p l us w a y s a nd
m e a n s t o r e d u c e bot h c o n f l i c t a n d a r m e d f o r c e s a n d , t h e r e f o r e , to m a k e
p o s s i b l e q u i t e l a r g e m i l i t a r y s p e n d i n g cuts w i t h o u t t h e ri sk of n e w civil w a r s
o r b a n d i t r y s p a r k e d by e x - c o m b a t a n t s w i t h o u t j o b s , crafts, e n t e r p r i s e s o r v i ­
a b l e f a r m s , but w i t h g un s.
T h e e x t e n t to w h i c h A f r i c a n e c o n o m i e s h a v e a d o p t e d m o r e r e a l i s t i c a nd m o r e
c o n t e x t u a l p o l i c i e s v a r i e s . M o s t h a v e a d a p t e d to a c h a n g i n g e x t e r n a l a nd
d o m e s t i c e c o n o m i c e n v i r o n m e n t - not least t he g r o w i n g r e a l i t y that a
B a n k / F u n d a p p r o v e d S AP has m e a n t m o r e r e s o u r c e t r a n s f e r s , a n d its a b ­
s e n c e l ess.
Th at is n e i t h e r an e n d o r s e m e n t n o r a c o n d e m n a t i o n of SAP
c o n t e n t s - a r e a l i s t i c f i n a n c i a l m o b i l i z e r r e s p o n d s b ot h v e r b a l l y a n d in p r a c ­
t i c e to f u n d e r p r e f e r e n c e s . A d e s p e r a t e o ne , in fact, has little c h o i c e . In a
m a j o r i t y of ca ses, g r o s s o v e r - v a l u a t i o n of c u r r e n c i e s has b een r e d u c e d o r
e l i m i n a t e d ( m e a s u r e d in c o m p a r a t i v e p r i c e m o v e m e n t s ) .
The r e m a i n i n g
l a r g e b l o c k of e x c e p t i o n s a r e - i r o n i c a l l y - t h o s e of t h e F ra nc Z o n e . Of fi cial
a g r i c u l t u r a l p o l i c y r e l a t i n g to p r i c i n g a n d m a r k e t i n g has b e c o m e m o r e m a r k e t
a n d g r o w e r - f r i e n d l y a l t h o u g h its i m p a c t on n o n - e x p o r t p r o d u c t i o n r e m a i n s
s o m e w h a t p e r i p h e r a l . On t h e o t h e r h a n d , w a g e a n d s a l a r y - p o l i c y has - if
a n y t h i n g - b e c o m e w o r s e w i t h m o s t s t r u c t u r e s , e i t h e r m u c h t oo h i g h r e l a t i v e
t o G D P (e.g. C o t e d ' I v o i r e , B u r k i n a Faso, N a m i b i a a n d , at least at s a l a r y l evel ,
Z a m b i a a n d S o u t h A f r i c a ) o r m u c h t o o l o w a b s o l u t e l y (e.g.
Tanzania.
S o m a lia , Mozam biq ue).
O n b a l a n c e , it is c o r r e c t to a g r e e w i t h t h o s e w h o c o n c l u d e t hat m o s t S SA
c o u n t r i e s o v e r 1986-90 m o v e d t o w a r d s i g n i f i c a n t l y m o r e a p p r o p r i a t e e c o ­
n o m i c p o l i c i e s a n d e v i d e n c e d c o n s i d e r a b l e w i l l i n g n e s s to a cc ep t t r a n s i t i o n a l
c o s t s w h i c h w e r e (and ar e) s e v e r e in p o l i t i c a l a n d soci al , as we ll as e c o ­
-
22
-
nom ic, terms.
B y t he s a m e t o k e n , it is not u n r e a s o n a b l e f o r t h e m to feel
s h o r t - c h a n g e d w h e n - l a r g e l y b e c a u s e of a i d a n d t r a d e s h o r t f a l l s - t h e y have
f a i l e d to a c h i e v e a n t i c i p a t e d r e s ul t s.
T n at is, i r o n i c a l l y , of p a r t i c u l a r c o n c e r n to g o v e r n m e n t s e i t h e r p r a c t i s i n g or
c o n s i d e r i n g m o v i n g to r e l a t i v e l y o p e n p o l i t i c a l s y s t e m s . V o t e r s d o not a p ­
p r e c i a t e s u s t a i n e d e c o n o m i c f a i l u r e o r s t a g n a t i o n as m e a s u r e d by t h e i r own
a c c e s s t o p r i v a t e c o n s u m p t i o n a n d p u b l i c s e r v i c e s . O p p o s i t i o n s , u n d e r such
c i r c u m s t a n c e s , a r e t a c t i c a l l y w e l l a d v i s e d to r u n o n c a r g o c u l t p o p u l i s t p l a t ­
f o r m s ( m o r e p r o f i t s - h i g h e r real w a g e s - less i m p o r t r e s t r i c t i o n s - l o w e r taxes
- h ig h e r g r o w e r and lo w e r c o n s u m e r food price s - c u rre n c y revaluation)
w h i c h d o a t t r a c t v o t e r s b ut a r e r a t h e r h a r d to p e r c e i v e as l e a d i n g e i t h e r to
s e n s i b l e ( o r e v en p r a c t i c a b l e ) e c o n o m i c p o l i c i e s or. f o r t h a t m a t t e r , to
s u s t a i n a b i l i t y of p o l i t i c a l o p e n n e s s a f t e r t h e n e w g o v e r n m e n t t a k e s office.
To s tat e t h e a b o v e is n ot to a p p e a l f o r r e c r i m i n a t i o n . T h e p ast is past and
h as s h a p e d t he p r e s e n t . W h a t ca n u s e f u l l y b e l e a r n e d f r o m t h e f a i l u r e - a nd
n o m i l d e r t e r m is a p p r o p r i a t e - o f U N P A A E R D is w h a t m i g h t w o r k , w h a t to
a v o i d a n d w h a t to r e v e r s e in t h e 1990s.
D o e s A f r i c a H a v e An E c o n o m i c F u t u r e ?
T h e e c o n o m i c r e c o r d of A f r i c a (SSA. N o r t h A f r i c a , R S A a l i k e ) in t h e 1980s has
b e e n d i s m a l in r e s p e c t to g r o w t h , e x t e r n a l b a l a n c e , p o v e r t y a n d f o o d s e c u ­
rity. T h e best t h a t ca n be s a id is t h a t m o s t A f r i c a n s a n d m o s t e c o n o m i e s
h a v e s u r v i v e d a n d . f o r a m a j o r i t y of e c o n o m i e s (b ut p r o b a b l y n ot f o r a m a ­
j o r i t y o f A f r i c a n s ) , t h e l a t t e r hal f of t h e 1980s s a w a c l a w i n g b ac k to
stabilisatio n, partial re co v e ry and a d ju s tm e n t and - p e r h a p s - renewed
g r o w t h of o u t p u t p e r h e a d .
B ut it is u n r e a s o n a b l e to p r o j e c t t h e 1980s i n to t h e 1990s. Fi r st , o v e r 1965-72
a n d 1976-79, m o s t A f r i c a n e c o n o m i e s w e r e g r o w i n g in p e r c a p i t a t er ms .
S e c o n d , in t h e l a t t e r h al f of t h e 1980s, m a n y r e g a i n e d t h a t p o s i t i o n , e v e n if
t e n u o u s l y , a n d w i t h g r e a t v u l n e r a b i l i t y to e x o g e n o u s s h o c k s (e.g. t h e - luckily
b r i e f - p o s t I ra q o c c u p a t i o n of K u w a i t oil p r i c e e x p l o s i o n ) .
B u t t w o m o r e f a c t o r s m a y be m o r e c r u c i a l . O n e a c h of t h e s u b - t h e m e s c o v ­
e r e d , a g r o w i n g b o d y o f a g r e e m e n t on d i r e c t i o n a n d on p r a c t i c a l f i r s t st eps
n o w e x i s t s a n d is b e i n g a c t e d on by o v e r h a l f of A f r i c a n S t a t e s a n d d o n o r
agencies.
Th e q u e s t i o n s a r e of a r t i c u l a t i o n , s e q u e n c e , s e c o n d s t e ps and
v o l u m e of r e s o u r c e s n e e d e d w i t h t h e f r e q u e n t d e a d l o c k s of t h e 1980s a p p a r ­
e n t l y i n c r e a s i n g l y b r e a k i n g up. S e c o n d , in m o s t c a s e s p o s i t i v e i n n o v a t i o n s
w i t h p r o m i s i n g i n i t ia l r e s u l t s ca n be s e en , e.g. in s e c u r i t y n et s in B o t s w a n a
a n d p e r h a p s M o z a m b i q u e , in s m a l l f a r m e r s u p p o r t a n d e n a b l e m e n t , e.g. via
I FAD, s o m e NG O p r o j e c t s a n d s o m e n a t i o n a l p r o g r a m m e s , in effective
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23
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A f r i c a n - b a s e d , s m a l l - f a r m e r o r i e n t e d a g r i c u l t u r a l r e s e a r c h in Z i m b a b w e a nd
K e n y a n a t i o n a l l y , t he S o u t h e r n A f r i c a n D e v e l o p m e n t C o o r d i n a t i o n C o n f e r ­
e n c e ( S A D C C ) r e g i o n a l l y a n d t h e I n t e r n a t i o n a l C e n t r e f o r Insect P a t h o l o g y
and E n viro n m e n t continentally;
in e x p o r t d i v e r s i f i c a t i o n in M a u r i t i u s a nd
Z i m b a b w e ; in i m a g i n a t i v e r e g i o n a l d e v e l o p m e n t c o o r d i n a t i o n i n i t i a t i v e s by
S A D C C a n d t he o v e r l a p p i n g P r e f e r e n t i a l T r a d e A r e a of Eas te rn a n d S o u t h e r n
Africa.
T h e 1990s a r e n ot a s s u r e d of b e i n g a d e c a d e of r e n e w e d e c o n o m i c p r o g r e s s
f o r A f r i c a . The p o s i t i v e s i g n s a r e t o o p a r t i a l , t e n t a t i v e a nd f r a g i l e f o r t h at a nd
t h e e x t e r n a l e n v i r o n m e n t still t o o u n c e r t a i n a n d e v e n m e n a c i n g .
B u t p e a c e c o u l d r a is e GDP g r o w t h by h al f a p e r c ent o r e v en a w h o l e p e r cent
o n a v e r a g e : b e t t e r t r a d e d e v e l o p m e n t a n o t h e r h al f p e r cent; a g r i c u l t u r a l and
p o v e r t y r e d u c t i o n ( i n c l u d i n g e n a b l i n g w o m e n ) o n e p e r cent; m a n u f a c t u r i n g
a n d i n f r a s t r u c t u r e r e h a b i l i t a t i o n a n d d e v e l o p m e n t p e r h a p s as m u c h ; m o r e
a c c o u n t a b l e , e f fi ci en t a n d p a r t i c i p a t o r y g o v e r n a n c e at least hal f a p e r cent:
r e s t r u c t u r i n g O D A . to e n a b l e r a t h e r t h a n s u b s t i t u t e f o r A f r i c a n c a p a c i t y , at
l e as t h a l f a p e r cent. The t o t a l p o t e n t i a l g a i n is 4-4.5 % , w h i c h , if f u l l y r e a l i s e d
( u n l i k e l y f o r all c o u n t r i e s ) , w o u l d b r i n g A f r i c a ' s g r o w t h to, o r a b o v e , 7 % a
y e a r a n d on h a l f a c h i e v e m e n t ( q u i t e p o s s i b l e ) w o u l d r a i s e a n n u a l c o n t i ­
n e n t a l G D P g r o w t h to 5 % . T hat w o u l d r e s t o r e a f o r w a r d d y n a m i c a nd e n a ­
b l e m o s t A f r i c a n s to be b e t t e r o f f in 2000 t h a n in 1990.
S o u t h A f r i c a n e c o n o m i c r e v i v a l has - a l o n g w i t h S o u t h A f r i c a - n o w m o v e d
o n t o t h e S S A a g e n d a but c a n n o t r e a d i l y be d a t e d . 1990 a n d 1991 wi l l be
y e a r s of n e g a t i v e GDP g r o w t h .
S i g n i f i c a n t r e v i v a l is u n l i k e l y until a c l e a r
p r o c e s s of p e a c e f u l t r a n s i t i o n to s t a b l e g o v e r n a n c e is w e ll a d v a n c e d - f o r
r e a s o n s of d o m e s t i c a n d e x t e r n a l e n t e r p r i s e c o n f i d e n c e a m o n g o t h e r s . The
n e e d to i n c r e a s e h u m a n i n v e s t m e n t a n d b a s i c s e r v i c e s , r e d u c e a b s o l u t e
p o v e rty , increase e m p loy m en t, lessen e thnically linked inequality, enhance
l a b o u r p r o d u c t i v i t y a nd r e s t r u c t u r e p r o d u c t i o n a r e by no m e a n s w h o l l y c o m ­
p a t i b l e in r e s o u r c e a l l o c a t i o n t e r m s , u n l e s s a n 8 % GDP g r o w t h rate w a s to
be a c h i e v e d , w h i c h a p p e a r s m o s t u n l i k e l y . R e g i o n a l e c o n o m i c r e l a t i o n s wil l
a l s o p o s e p r o b l e m s . The o l d o v e r p r i c e d m a n u f a c t u r e s f o r m i g r a n t l a b o u r
b a s e c a n n o t be r e s t o r e d - if o n l y b e c a u s e t h e ' n e w ' RSA wi l l p h a s e out
m i g r a n t w o r k e r s to r e d u c e n a t i o n a l u n e m p l o y m e n t .
Its 1980s v a r i a n t of
h o l d i n g m a r k e t s c a p t i v e by w r e c k i n g a l t e r n a t i v e t r a n s p o r t r o u t e s to r a i s e e x ­
p o r t s w o u l d be e v en less r e v i v a b l e . A n ew , less u n b a l a n c e d , m o r e e v e n h a n d e d t r a d e p a c k a g e in g o o d s a n d s e r v i c e s t h a t a l so h e l ps a c h i e v e b u o y a n t
S o u t h A f r i c a n e x p o r t g r o w t h m a y n ot be e a s i l y o r r a p i d l y a t t a i n a b l e , e s p e ­
cia lly
because
neither the
black
political
and
intellectual
counter­
e s t a b l i s h m e n t , n o r the w h i t e b u s i n e s s l e a d e r s h i p s e e m to h a ve g r a s p e d the
s c o p e a n d d e p t h of t he c h a l l e n g e .
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T h us , t h e v i s i o n of t he S o u t h A f r i c a n e c o n o m y as a l o c o m o t i v e , e i t h e r p u l li n g
S o u t h e r n A f r i c a o ut of r e c e s s i o n o r r o l l i n g o v e r its e c o n o m i e s like stal led
l o r r i e s on a c r o s s i n g , is u n r e a l . Th e least u n l i k e l y p r o j e c t i o n s w o u l d be of
1 - 3 % a n n u a l g r o w t h o v e r t h e y e a r s to 1995 w i t h a 6 % t a r g e t f o r 2000 if both
t r a n s i t i o n in g o v e r n a n c e a n d a t t a i n m e n t of w o r k i n g p r o d u c t i v i t y a n d e x p o r t
s t r a t e g i e s c o m e off b y - s a y - 1995.
Even s u c h t e n t a t i v e o p t i m i s m a b o u t A f r i c a ' s e c o n o m i c p r o s p e c t s is o p e n to
d o u b t . B u t A f r i c a n s a n d t h o s e c o m m i t t e d to w o r k i n g w i t h t h e m h a v e no o t h e r
o p t i o n - a r e - r u n of t h e 1980s is t o o t e r r i b l e to a c c e p t as a b a s i s f o r act i on .
In 1991, it is n e c e s s a r y to d r a w s o m e c o m f o r t f r o m t h e o l d e s t r e c o r d e d piece
of E u r o p e a n A f r i c a n s t u d i e s : P l i n y ' s 2 0 0 0 - y e a r - o l d w a r n i n g . " O u t of A f ri ca
t h e r e is a l w a y s s o m e t h i n g n e w " .
An I n t e r n a t i o n a ! A f r i c a n A g e n d a f o r t h e 1990s?
Th e r e c o r d of t he 1980s, a n d of U N P A A E R D in p a r t i c u l a r , is l a m e n t a b l e . But
to l a m e n t - still less to r e c r i m i n a t e - wi l l not by i t s e l f m a k e t h e 1990s better.
N o r w i l l c o n s t r u c t i n g n e w s c h e m e s on a ' b u s i n e s s as b e f o r e ' b a s i s . B o t h SSA
a n d its c o o p e r a t i n g p a r t n e r s n e e d to i d e n t i f y a p r a c t i c a b l e ' c o n t r a c t ' f or
1992-96 a n d d e l i v e r on it. ' C o n t r a c t ' b e c a u s e w h a t o n e is r e a l l y t a l k i n g a bo ut
is a c o m p a c t b a c k e d by c o m m o n o b j e c t i v e s , a g r e e d m e a n s , o r d e r s of m a g ­
n i t u d e s a n d m o r a l p e r s u a s i o n . That p r o c e s s w i l l n e e d to a c c e p t t ha t t h er e
wi l l be no m a s s i v e i m p r o v e m e n t in c o m m o d i t y t e r m s of t r a d e o r c l i m a t e and
t h at C e n t r a l a n d E a s t e r n E u r o p e a n , a n d p r o b a b l y M i d d l e E a s t e r n , calls on
soft f i n a n c e m e a n t ha t p l a u s i b l e t a r g e t s f o r n e w r e s o u r c e t r a n s f e r s to S SA are
u n l i k e l y to a l l o w f o r m o r e t h a n 4 % a n n u a l r e al g r o w t h ( 1 % p e r c ap i ta ) c o n ­
c e n t r a t e d on a h a n d f u l of c o u n t r i e s r e c o n s t r u c t i n g a f t e r w a r o r ' c o m i n g in out
of t h e c o l d ' a f t e r c o n s t r u c t i n g / s u s t a i n i n g c r e d i b l e e c o n o m i c st ra teg ie s.
T h e r e f o r e , a s i m p l e p r e s c r i p t i o n of ' m o r e a i d ' (in a n y c a s e of d o u b t f u l effi­
c ac y) is not p r a c t i c a b l e . N o r ca n ' r e v i v e t he C o m m o n F u n d ' be a v e r y useful
p r o p o s a l in r e s p e c t of t e r m s of t r a d e (or, at l e as t, n ot t h e Fi r s t W i n d o w ) .
A s h o r t list of p o s s i b l e a v e n u e s t o w a r d p r o g r a m m e o r c o m p a c t c o m p o n e n t s
inclu des:
(1)
N e w re so u rce tra n s fe rs - o th e r than tec h n ica l a s s ista n c e - rising 5% a
year, and technical assistance 2 % - a v e r a g e a b o u t 4 %
T h e r e are. in
a b s o l u t e n u m b e r s , t o o m a n y t e c h n i c a l a s s i s t a n c e a n d o p e r a t i o n a l gapf i l l i n g p e r s o n n e l in S S A n o w - of fi ci al a n d N G O a l i k e . T h e r e a r e t o o ma ny
h i g h c os t o v e r s e a s s t u d y p r o g r a m m e s a n d ' s t u d y t o u r s ' f o r w h i c h a mo r e
a p p r o p r i a t e a d j e c t i v e m i g h t be ' p a c k a g e ' . M o r e s e l e c t i v i t y o n p e r s o n n e l
(a nd c l e a r e r d i f f e r e n t i a t i o n b e t w e e n g a p - f i l l i n g o p e r a t i o n a l a n d t e ch n ic a l
a s s i s t a n c e p r o p e r ) , m o r e s u p p o r t f o r j o i n t v e n t u r e s b a s e d at A f r i c a n i n ­
s t i t u t i o n s ( i n c l u d i n g d o m e s t i c N GO s) . i n s t i t u t i o n a l s u p p o r t ( e s p e c i a l l y in
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25
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r e s p e c t of r e s e a r c h a n d t r a i n i n g ) , s e l e c t i v e use of c o u n t e r p a r t f u n d s to
f i n a n c e real p u b l i c s e r v a n t p ay i n c r e a s e s l i n k e d to p e r f o r m a n c e i n c e n ­
t i v e s a n d to r e d u c e l e a k a g e a r e n e e d e d - s o m e as t r a n s f e r s w i t h i n TA,
s o m e as shif ts f r o m TA to ' b u d g e t s u p p o r t ' o r ' c a p i t a l ' , a l b e i t in all p o o r
c o u n t r i e s , t he l a t te r t w o n e e d to be b l e n d e d .
(2)
R a d i c a l d e b t w r i t e d o w n . Up to 1 0 0 % of g o v e r n m e n t - t o - g o v e r n m e n t d eb t
t o l o w - i n c o m e d e b t - d i s t r e s s e d ; up to 5 0 % (a la P o l a n d - E g y p t ) to m i d d l e i n c o m e d e b t - d i s t r e s s e d . P a r a l l e l a c t i o n on c o m m e r c i a l b a n k d eb t ( b u y ­
i n g it in vi a t he W o r l d B a n k o r o t h e r p r o g r a m m e s at s e c o n d a r y m a r k e t ,
i.e. 5 % to 3 5 % o r b e l o w ) . S y s t e m a t i c c o n v e r s i o n of I MF d r a w i n g s to
E S A F to hai t t he 1980s $3 b i l l i o n A f r i c a n ( i n c l u d i n g RSA) o u t f l o w to t he
F u n d . G r e a t e r B a n k c o n v e r s i o n of B a n k l o a n s to IDA c r e d i t s ( h o w e v e r
m a n a g e d ) for present ID A-eligib le countrie s (probably in cluding Nigeria)
p a r a l l e l e d by g r e a t e r e x t e r n a l m e m b e r f u n d i n g of t he A D B ' s A f r i c a n D e ­
v e l o p m e n t F u nd . The N e t h e r l a n d s ' p r o p o s a l s a n d t h o s e of t h e N o r t h S o u t h R o u n d t a b l e on A f r i c a n Debt Relief, R e c o v e r y a n d D e m o c r a c y hel d
in A b i d j a n in J u l y 1991 b o t h p r o v i d e a s o u n d b as i s f o r a r t i c u l a t i n g an
a g r e e d p r o g r a m m e a n d s u g g e s t t ha t o ne m a y , at last, be w i t h i n re a ch , if
n o t in 1992 t h e n b e f o r e 1995. If w a i v i n g i n t e r e s t a n d f r e e z i n g r e p a y m e n t
n o w , a n d w r i t i n g off p r i n c i p a l g r a d u a l l y , w i l l ease t he n e g o t i a t i o n , t h e y
are wo rth exploring.
(3)
D i v e r s i f i e d e x p o r t s v ia s e r i o u s A f r i c a n p r i o r i t y a t t e n t i o n b a c k e d by g l o b a l
t e c h n i c a l a s s i s t a n c e s u p p o r t , f o r s t u d i e s a n d c ap i ta l a s s i s t a n c e ( i n c l u d i n g
g u a r a n t e e s to e n t e r p r i s e i n v e s t o r s in t he - p r o b a b l y n u m e r o u s - c as es in
w h i c h a j o i n t v e n t u r e is t h e a p p r o p r i a t e f o r m ) f o r m o v i n g f r o m s t u d y i n g
to e x p o r t i n g . The S e c o n d W i n d o w of t he C o m m o n Fu nd can p la y a useful
r o l e b ut w o u l d be s t r e n g t h e n e d w e r e e l i g i b i l i t y f o r f i n a n c e b r o a d e n e d to
in c lu d e regional, p ro d u c e r-c o u n try g ro u p s and regional trade and d e ­
v e lo p m e n t organizatio ns.
(4)
R e v i e w i n g w h a t ca n be d o n e a b o u t c o m m o d i t i e s , i n c l u d i n g m o r e e ff ec ­
tive selling (d omestic actions? Joint ve ntu re s or dom estic export c o m ­
panies?
Contracts with non-traditio nal, especia lly Southern, markets?
E n f o r c e d a n t i - c o l l u s i o n l e g i s l a t i o n ? ) , p r e - e x p o r t p r o c e s s i n g , c r e a t i o n of a
g l o b a l v a r i a n t of S t a b e x c o v e r i n g v i s i b l e a n d i n v i s i b l e r a w a n d p r o c e s s e d
c o m m o d i t y ( i n c l u d i n g t o u r i s m ) e x p o r t s . T h e C o m m o n Fu nd Fir st W i n d o w
a n d s t a n d a r d s t a b i l i s a t i o n a g r e e m e n t s a r e ( w h a t e v e r t h e i r m e r i t s ) not
p r a c t i c a b l e a r e a s of a g r e e m e n t at t h i s t i m e . The i t e m s ci t ed m i g h t be,
a l t h o u g h t he q u e s t i o n of w h o is to f u n d a g l o b a l S t a b e x if p r i c e s d o not
r e c o v e r wi l l p o se p r o b l e m s .
(5)
A t t e n t i o n to t h e a p p a r e n t g r o s s o v e r - p r i c i n g of i m p o r t s i nt o SSA. I ni ­
t i a l l y , r e s e a r c h on p a r a m e t e r s a n d c a u s e s is n e e d e d but c l e a r l y w i t h a
v i e w to a c t i o n o n c e t he c a u s e s a r e i d e n t i f i e d . E n c o u r a g i n g c o m p e t i t i o n
-
26
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a m o n g g l o b a l t r a d i n g f i r m s a n d / o r c r e a t i n g d o m e s t i c ( p u b l i c o r pri vat e)
j o i n t v e n t u r e s w i t h t h e m w o u l d a p p e a r to be an o p t i o n w o r t h c o n s i d e r i n g .
N e i t h e r p r e s e n t f o r m s of p r i c e s u r v e i l l a n c e n o r c o m p e t i t i v e t e n d e r i n g , by
t h e m s e l v e s , s e e m a b l e to r e a c h to t h e h e a r t of t h e p r o b l e m .
(6)
P r o d u c t i v i t y b u i l d i n g - i n c l u d i n g , but g o i n g b e y o n d , t r a i n i n g to c o v e r o r ­
g a n i z a t i o n (not least m o r e e ff e c t i ve a n d m e m b e r - r e s p o n s i v e w o r k e r sel f­
o rg an iz a tion ), m a n a g e m e n t and incentives.
T h i s is r a r e l y a spec ifi c
p r i o r i t y but is c r u c i a l if u ni t l a b o u r co s ts , n ot j u s t r eal w a g e s , a r e to be
r e d u c e d . B e c a u s e it is a n e w a r e a, t e c h n i c a l a s s i s t a n c e w i l l be n e e d e d
a n d , p e r h a p s , usef ul . R e d u c i n g o v e r s t a f f i n g m a y o f t e n be an e l e m e n t
( p r e f e r a b l y by r a i s i n g c a p a c i t y u t i l i s a t i o n to j u s t i f y l e v e l s r e l a t e d to t wo t h r e e shift o p e r a t i o n s ) but is n ot an a d e q u a t e m e d i u m - t e r m p r o g r a m m e .
He re , TA c o u l d i n c l u d e N o r t h - f i n a n c e d r e s e a r c h a n d c o n s u l t a n c y f r o m
A frica n and o th e r Sou th ern e nte rp ris e s w h ic h have a ch ie v e d acceptable
a n d r i s i n g l a b o u r p r o d u c t i v i t y . O u t s i d e ( o r e v e n w i t h i n ) t h e f o r m a l wa g e
s e c t o r s , a p p r o a c h e s n e e d to be b a s e d on b r o a d s u r v e y s of w h a t actual,
r e m o v a b l e o b s t a c l e s a r e - e.g. t h e t i m e w o m e n m u s t s p e n d f e t c h i n g w a ­
t e r as a b a r r i e r to i n c r e a s e d l a b o u r i n p u t o n f a m i l y f a r m s at p e a k s e a ­
s o n s , o r lack of p u b l i c t r a n s p o r t / b i c y c l e s as a b a r r i e r t o a r r i v i n g on the
j o b on t i m e a n d r e s t e d .
(7)
C a p a c i t y b u i l d i n g - r e s e a r c h a n d t r a i n i n g , g o v e r n m e n t ( i n c l u d i n g local
g o v e rn m e n t), enterprises, d o m e s tic (African) NGOs. Here the top priority
is f o r s y s t e m a t i c A f r i c a n p r o p o s a l s - a n d f o r l e ss g r a n d i o s e , ' s i l v e r bul l et '
s h o r t - l i s t s f r o m e x t e r n a l s o u r c e s . A n o t h e r p r i o r i t y is to a v o i d N o r t h e r n
f a s h i o n s or, i n d e e d , a p p r o a c h e s w h i c h m a y be s o u n d in t h e N o r t h but are
q u i t e u n s o u n d in t h e A f r i c a n c o n t e x t . F o r e x a m p l e , W e b e r i a n b u r e a u c ­
racy does handle most g o v e rn m e n t tasks well and m ost post-W eberian
c r i t i q u e s a c t u a l l y a s s u m e a f u n c t i o n i n g b u r e a u c r a c y in o r d e r to c o n c e n ­
t r a t e on t h e t a s k s b e t t e r h a n d l e d b y o t h e r a p p r o a c h e s a n d / o r n e e d i n g
g re a te r b urea u cra tic fle xib ility, in c lu d in g d e c e n tr a lis a tio n .
In SSA. the
m o s t i m m e d i a t e p r o b l e m is o f te n la ck of a f u n c t i o n i n g b u r e a u c r a t i c s y s ­
t e m , w h i c h f o r c e s r o u t i n e t a s k s to be h a n d l e d o n a o n e - o f f j u d g e m e n t a l
b a si s .
S im ilarly, a d m in is tra to rs , fro m s e n i o r cle rical th r o u g h middle
p r o f e s s i o n a l l e v el s , a r e u s u a l l y t o o f e w - r a t h e r t h a n t o o n u m e r o u s - in
e n t e r p r i s e s , d o m e s t i c N G O s a n d g o v e r n m e n t . T h i s is n o t to d e n i g r a t e
s e l e c t i v e use of ke y p o s t - b u r e a u c r a t i c , p a r t i c i p a t o r y t o o l s - e.g. Rapid
R u r a l A p p r a i s a l - b ut to w a r n t h a t a f u n c t i o n i n g b u r e a u c r a t i c s y s t e m run
by a d e q u a t e n u m b e r s of c o m p e t e n t a d m i n i s t r a t o r s is a g o a l to be
a c h i e v e d in m o s t of S SA, n ot an e x i s t i n g m o n s t e r to be a t t a c k e d .
(8)
I m p r o v i n g a c c o u n t s in t e r m s of a c c u r a c y , t i m e l i n e s s , i n f o r m a t i o n p r o ­
v i d e d a n d a c c e s s i b i l i t y . A g a i n , N G O s a n d e n t e r p r i s e s f r e q u e n t l y have
w e a k n e s s e s as s e r i o u s as t h o s e of g o v e r n m e n t s . W i t h o u t a c c o u n t s , a c ­
c o u n t a b i l i t y (in the b r o a d e s t s e n s e as w e l l as t h e n a r r o w e r sens es) is
-
27
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s i m p l y n o t p o s s i b l e . The c o n t r i b u t i o n of t h e g l o b a l c o m m u n i t y to d a t e is.
o n b a l a n c e , n e g a t i v e . D e m a n d i n g a p l e t h o r a of s e p a r a t e p r o c e d u r e s f o r
e x t e r n a l r e s o u r c e r e p o r t i n g n e c e s s i t a t e s r e a l l o c a t i o n of s c a r c e p e r s o n n e l
a n d b o t h m a r g i n a l i s e s a n d d e c a p a c i t a t e s n a t i o n a l s y s t e m s . If e x t e r n a l
d o n o r s p r o v i d e d TA f o r n a t i o n a l ( o r e n t e r p r i s e o r d o m e s t i c NGO) a c c o u n t
s y s t e m o v e r h a u l a n d f o r t h i r d c o u n t r y (e.g. S o ut h A si a, P h i l i p p i n e s ,
E g y p t ) g a p - f i l l i n g p e r s o n n e l a n d f o r s t r e n g t h e n i n g n a t i o n a l t r a i n i n g on a
l a r g e r s ca le t h an h e r e t o f o r e , t h a t w o u l d be a start. B e y o n d t ha t t h e y
n e e d to a c c e p t r e p o r t s b a s i c a l l y on t h e n a t i o n a l a c c o u n t i n g f o r m a t ( p o s ­
s i b l y w i t h s o m e l i m i t e d a d d e d d at a) a nd d o t he r e c a s t i n g into t h e i r o w n
natio nal or institutional a c cou n ting form a ts themselves.
(9)
C i v i l s o c i e t y s t r e n g t h e n i n g (in a s e n s e s o m e w h e r e b e t w e e n its
G r a m s c i a n o r i g i n s a n d its n e o - l i b e r a l , c o d e - w o r d m e a n i n g s ) is i n c r e a s ­
i n g l y d e m a n d e d in A f r i c a a n d by d o n o r s . B ut t h e r e has b een little d i s ­
c u s s i o n of h o w a n y e x t e r n a l c o n t r i b u t i o n m i g h t be a r t i c u l a t e d and
p r o g r a m m e d . On t he f ac e of it, t h e f o c a l p o i n t s h o u l d b e d o m e s t i c N G O s
(trade
union,
artisanal,
peasant,
re ligio us,
women's,
youth,
n e i g h b o u r h o o d ) . The p r e s e n c e of s c o r e s of e x t e r n a l NG Os w i t h b u d g e t s ,
o ff i c e s , p e r s o n n e l , p r o g r a m m e s a n d p r o j e c t s d o e s not, in m a n y cases,
f a c i l i t a t e a n d c a p a c i t a t e d o m e s t i c N G O s o r local g o v e r n m e n t . R a t h e r it
m a r g i n a l i s e s , d e c a p a c i t a t e s . b e g g a r i s e s a n d r e t a r d s t h e m . O ne s t r u c ­
t u r a l shift w o u l d be to i n s is t t ha t, e x c e p t u n d e r s p e c i a l c i r c u m s t a n c e s ,
e x t e r n a l N G O s s h o u l d o p e r a t e in j o i n t v e n t u r e s w it h , o r by, e x t e r n a l
s u p p o r t c h a n n e l e d to, o r t h r o u g h , d o m e s t i c NGOs . That w o u l d be a n a l ­
o g o u s to m o s t b i l a t e r a l g o v e r n m e n t - t o - g o v e r n m e n t c h a n n e l i n g .
Once
t h a t w a s a c h i e v e d , u n q u a l i f i e d s u p p o r t f o r m o r e f u n d i n g via e x t e r n a l
N G O s ( r e a l i s t i c a l l y to a s u b s t a n t i a l e x t e n t m a t c h i n g o r t o p p i n g up e x ­
t e r n a l g o v e r n m e n t a l f i n a n c e ) w o u l d be a p p r o p r i a t e . W h e r e a c c e p t a b l e
( w h i c h is i n c r e a s i n g l y oft en), e x t e r n a ! t e c h n i c a l a s s i s t a n c e on v o t e r r e g ­
i s t r a t i o n a n d c a m p a i g n r u le s , p l u s j o i n t e x t e r n a l - d o m e s t i c NGO e l e c t i o n
o b s e r v a t i o n t e a m s , c o u l d a l s o be u sef ul .
(10) P o v e r t y - m o r e a c c u r a t e l y p o v e r t y , a n d e s p e c i a l l y a b s o l u t e p o v e r t y , r e ­
d u c t i o n - is a s t r a t e g i c p r i o r i t y v e r b a l l y in m o s t (not all) of A f r i c a a nd
g l o b a l l y . B ut A f r i c a n S tat es still n e e d to a r t i c u l a t e a nd to p r o g r a m m e it
w i t h i n t h e i r c e n t r a l b u d g e t a r y a l l o c a t i o n s of f in a n c e , f o r e i g n e x c h a n g e
a n d p e r s o n n e l , a n d e x t e r n a l b o d i e s to p r o v i d e c o m p a r a t i v e i n p u t s (and
e x p e r i e n c e d TA p e r s o n n e l ) w h i l e a c c e p t i n g t ha t A f r i c a n s - not least p o o r
A f r i c a n s - k n o w r a t h e r m o r e a b o u t t h e n u t s a n d b o l ts of t h i s t o p i c t h a n
t h e y t h e m s e l v e s u s u a l l y d o. In p a r t i c u l a r , m o r e p r o d u c t i o n / p r o d u c t i v i t y
by p o o r p e o p l e n e e d s s e r i o u s a t t e n t i o n b e y o n d - t h o u g h i n c l u d i n g l a b o u r i n t e n s i v e c o n s t r u c t i o n w o r k s ( p u b l i c a n d - e.g. h o u s i n g - p r i v a t e )
a n d f a m i l y f a r m e r e n a b l i n g p r o g r a m m e s . T h e i s s u e is n o t so m u c h t h a t
o f m o r e f i n a n c e as it is o f r e s t r u c t u r i n g p r o g r a m m e s , p e r s o n n e l a l l o ­
c a t i o n s , b u d g e t s a n d - a b o v e a l l - o u t l o o k , to m a k e p o v e r t y r e d u c t i o n an
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28
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i n t e g r a l p a r t o f m a i n l i n e o p e r a t i o n s a n d c r i t e r i a - s e t t i n g r a t h e r t ha n a
se rie s o f m a r g i n a l add-ons. The African side m ay also need assurance
that
absolu te
poverty
reduction/hum an
condition/hum an
i n v e s t m e n t / s o c i a l d i m e n s i o n s ( h o w e v e r t i t l e d ) w i l l r e m a i n o n t he N o r t h ' s
a g e n d a a n d not v a n i s h w i t h i l l - c o n c e a l e d r e t r o s p e c t i v e d e r i s i o n as did
R o b e r t M a c N a m a r a ' s ' A b s o l u t e P o v e r t y E r a d i c a t i o n ' a n d I L O ' s Basi c
Needs' approaches.
(11) G e n d e r - l ike p o v e r t y - is an a r e a in w h i c h g r o w i n g a c c e p t a n c e of the
p r i o r i t y n a t u r e of t h e i s s u e c l u s t e r h as o f te n left a d v o c a t e s w i t h o u t p r o ­
p o s e d a r t i c u l a t i o n s a n d a c t i o n s to o f f e r t h e n e w l y c o n v e r t e d , a n d is also
o n e in w h i c h c o n t e x t u a l i t i e s a n d p r i o r i t i e s n e e d to be set b y A f r i c a n
w o m e n w i t h l e ss a t t e m p t s at N o r t h e r n ' g u i d a n c e ' .
C l e a r l y t h e r e is an
o v e r l a p w i t h c i v i l s o c i e t y (half of its m e m b e r s a r e w o m e n ) , w i t h p o v e r t y
(a m a j o r i t y of h o u s e h o l d s in a b s o l u t e p o v e r t y a r e f e m a l e - h e a d e d ) , with
p o p u l a t i o n ( m o r e f e m a l e e d u c a t i o n is h i s t o r i c a l l y a v e r y e f f e c t i v e m e a ns
of r e d u c i n g b ot h i n f a n t m o r t a l i t y a n d r e p r o d u c t i o n r a t e s ) a n d w i t h f o o d
s e c u r i t y (in S S A ' s d i v i d e d h o u s e h o l d b u d g e t s y s t e m s , f o o d is p r i m a r i l y
a f e m a l e r e s p o n s i b i l i t y a n d a b o u t t w o - t h i r d s to t h r e e - q u a r t e r s of A f r ic a n
f o o d is g r o w n p r i m a r i l y by w o m e n ) .
L e s s e v i d e n t is t h e o v e r l a p wit h
p r o d u c t i v i t y . M a n y - p r o b a b l y m o s t - S S A w o m e n w o r k v e r y l o n g hours.
If t h e y a r e to p r o d u c e m o r e , to a t t e n d m o r e e d u c a t i o n o p p o r t u n i t i e s and
to p a r t i c i p a t e m o r e f u l l y in c iv il s o c i e t y , t h e y n e e d to h a v e h o u r s f reed
f r o m p r e s e n t t a sk s . Th e w a y s to d o t h i s a r e n ot s e l f - e v i d e n t but are
u s u a l l y c o n t e x t u a l l y i d e n t i f i a b l e ; f o r e x a m p l e , f e t c h i n g w a t e r a nd fuel
a n d c a r i n g f o r t he s ic k o f t e n t a k e s 6-8 h o u r s a d a y of r u r a l w o m e n ' s (and
g i r l s ' ) t i m e . A c c e s s i b l e r u r a l w a t e r , f u n c t i o n i n g p r i m a r y h e a l t h care, v i l ­
l a g e o r h o u s e h o l d s i l v i c u l t u r e c o u l d of te n cut t h i s d o w n t o 2-3. Wi t h the
f r e e d h o u r s m o r e c r o p s c o u l d be p r o d u c e d - o r c a s h e a r n e d , e.g. f r o m
l a b o u r i n t e n s i v e w o r k e m p l o y m e n t - e v e n if no i m m e d i a t e b r e a k t h r o u g h s
on a g r i c u l t u r a l p r o d u c t i v i t y w e r e a v a i l a b l e .
(12) E m e r g e n c y ( c a l a m i t y ) a i d - in s o m e y e a r s u p t o 2 5 % of t o t a l t r a n s f e r s to
S S A - n e e d s s t r u c t u r a l t r a n s f o r m a t i o n in t w o d i r e c t i o n s .
First to
r e c o g n i s e t h a t c a l a m i t i e s w i l l r e c u r in a n y c o u n t r y a n d s o m e w i l l o c c u r
in a n y y e a r in A f r i c a a s a w h o l e . T h e r e f o r e , a l o n g - t e r m s t r a t e g i c a p ­
p r o a c h w i t h f u n d i n g a n d i n s t i t u t i o n a l i n f r a s t r u c t u r e in p f a c e - n ot r e p e t i ­
t i v e o n e - o f f e r y - is n e e d e d . T h e G7 p r o p o s a l s f o r a s p e c i a l UN s trat egi c
u n i t to be r e s p o n s i b l e f o r i d e n t i f i c a t i o n , m o b i l i s a t i o n , c o o r d i n a t i o n and w h e r e n e c e s s a r y - s p e c i a l p r o g r a m m e o p e r a t i o n a l l e a d e r s h i p , does
r e c o g n i s e t h e p r o b l e m a n d g o b r o a d l y in t h e r i g h t d i r e c t i o n , e s p e c i a l l y if
p a r a l l e l e d by c o m p a r a b l e b i l a t e r a l a i d a g e n c y a n d A f r i c a n n a t i o n a l units.
T h e o b j e c t i o n s of c o n c e r n e d a g e n c i e s ( U N D R O , U N H C R , U N D P ) are valid
to t h e e x t e n t t ha t a n y n e w a r r a n g e m e n t s h o u l d n ot t a k e o v e r t he o p e r a ­
t i o n a l w o r k of t h e f i r st t w o a n d s h o u l d u t i l i s e t h e o f f i c e s of t he UNDP
-
29
-
R e s i d e n t R e p r e s e n t a t i v e s w h e r e p r a c t i c a l . B ut A f r i c a n e m e r g e n c i e s d e ­
m a n d vastly im p ro ve d capacities, co o rd in a tio n m echanisms and strate­
gic vision.
The ' i n t e r f e r e n c e ' c r i t i q u e is a l s o of m i x e d v a l i d i t y - t he
r e c o r d is o n e of t o o m u c h c a u t i o n in s u p p l y i n g s u r v i v a l a s s i s t a n c e on
b o t h s i d e s o f c o n f l i c t l in es, b ut a l s o of t o o m u c h d i r e c t i n t e r v e n t i o n in
d e t a i l s , a nd e v en p r o g r a m m e size a n d p r i o r i t i e s , of m a j o r e m e r g e n c y
o p e r a t i o n s . N a t i o n a l l y in A f r i c a , B o t s w a n a has a p e r m a n e n t p r o g r a m m e
c o r e w i t h i n s t i t u t i o n a l i n f r a s t r u c t u r e , p r o c e d u r e s a nd - in p r a c t i c e - s o m e
p r o g r a m m e s e v e r y y e a r so t h a t it is in g o o d r u n n i n g o r d e r s h o u l d m a s ­
s i v e n e e d a r is e . I n d e e d no g l o b a l , N o r t h e r n o r o t h e r A f r i c a n s t r a t e g i c
a p p r o a c h is c o m p a r a b l e in c o v e r a g e a n d q u a l i t y .
S e c o n d , s t r a t e g i c p l a n n i n g to c o n v e r t s u r v i v a l r e l i e f a i m e d at t he
c a l a m i t y of w a r to r e h a b i l i t a t i o n (of l i v e l i h o o d s , e.g.
transport home,
s e e d s / t o o l s / f o o d until h a r v e s t , of local b a s i c s e r v i c e s a nd i n f r a s t r u c t u r e ,
of m a r k e t a cces s) as s e c u r i t y i m p r o v e s , is a p r i o r i t y . The s ca le on w h i c h
t h i s is n o w n e e d e d in M o z a m b i q u e , Eri tr ea , A n g o l a , E t h i o p i a a nd
S o m a l i a , d w a r f s a n y past e x e r c i s e s . B o t h d e s i g n a n d f u n d i n g a r e p a r ­
t i c u l a r l y w e a k - n a t i o n a l l y a n d , e v e n m o r e , by N o r t h e r n St at es a n d i n t e r ­
natio nal agencies - for d o m e stic dislo cated, or p au p erised-in-hom e-areas
p e r s o n s r a t h e r t h a n f o r t r a n s b o r d e r r e f u g e e s . U N H C R has b e t t e r r e c e n t
r e h a b i l i t a t i o n e x p e r i e n c e , but b a s e d on s c o r e s of t h o u s a n d s as c o n ­
trasted
with
t he
two
m illion
or
more
involved
in
t he
M o z a m b i q u e - A n g o l a - E t h i o p i a / E r i t r e a - S o m a l i a cases. A g a i n , t he p r o b l e m
of g e t t i n g r e h a b i l i t a t i o n s u p p o r t to w h e r e it is n e e d e d - p e o p l e at r is k o r
t h e i r l i v e l i h o o d ' s h o m e a r e a s - a p p e a r s to be t he m os t d i ff ic ul t p r o b l e m .
O n e key e l e m e n t in s u c h r e s t r u c t u r i n g is p r o m p t r e s p o n s e , b ot h to save
l i v e s a nd to e n s u r e p e o p l e ca n be h e l p e d on t he spot , r a t h e r t h a n be
f o r c e d to l e a ve t h e i r h o m e s to r e c e i v e s u r v i v a l a s s i s t a n c e . The l a t t e r
g r e a t l y h a m p e r s r e t u r n to h o m e s a n d l i v e l i h o o d r e h a b i l i t a t i o n a n d , f o r
s o m e p e o p l e , p r e v e n t s it.
T h e f i n a n c i a l i m p l i c a t i o n s of t h e s e s t r u c t u r a l shif ts a re u n c l e a r . W h i l e
m o r e p h y s i c a l s u p p o r t is n e e d e d , b e t t e r f o r w a r d p l a n n i n g a n d d o m e s t i c
l o g i s t i c a l c a p a c i t a t i o n w o u l d r e d u c e uni t c os ts ( e s p ec i a l l y on t r a n s p o r t )
w h i l e d e l i v e r y n e a r h o m e s ( a v e r t i n g o r l i m i t i n g st ays in c a m p s ) w o u l d
p e r m i t m o r e r a p i d r e t u r n to s e l f - r e l i a n c e a n d t h u s m e a n s h o r t e r c a ll s on
assistance.
(13) F o o d s e c u r i t y is c l o s e l y l i n k e d to p o v e r t y a n d to t he s t r u c t u r a l c h a n g e s
in e m e r g e n c y aid. M o s t a b s o l u t e l y p o o r p e o p l e a r e r u r a l r e s i d e n t s ; o v e r
h a l f are w a r or n a t u ra l c a la m ity afflicted. For them, food entitle m ents
w i l l c o m e f r o m f o o d p r o d u c t i o n o r s u r v i v a l a id ... o r not at all. F o r t he
u r b a n a b s o l u t e l y p o o r , m o r e j o b s , l i v i n g w a g e s a n d ( p a rt l y c o n s e q u e n ­
t i a l l y ) a m o r e p r o d u c t i v e u r b a n f a m i l y ' e n t e r p r i s e ' s e c t o r ( a r t i s a n a l a nd
c o m m e r c i a l ) are n e e d e d , as c as h is t he b a s i c key to f o o d e n t i t l e m e n t s .
-
.10
-
N e i t h e r p r o b l e m r e q u i r e s m a j o r t e c h n o l o g i c a l b r e a k t h r o u g h s . A c c e s s to
i n p u t s , m a r k e t s , t r a n s p o r t , b a s i c s e r v i c e s a n d f a i r p r i c e s / w a g e s (i.e. not
g r i e v o u s l y d i s t o r t e d by m a r k e t f a i l u r e o r f a i l e d a t t e m p t s to offset it)
s h o u l d r e s u l t in 4 % a v e r a g e a n n u a l f o o d p r o d u c t i o n i n c r e a s e s o v e r the
n e x t d e c a d e . O v e r a l l e c o n o m i c r e v i v a l a n d s u b s t i t u t i o n of l oc al f o r i m ­
ported g rain should assure ade q ua te urban markets. R e se arch and ex­
t e n s i o n b u i l d - u p a r e c r u c i a l but, b e c a u s e t h e s h e l f of t e s t e d , co s te d ,
u s e r - f r i e n d l y k n o w l e d g e to e x t e n d is l i m i t e d , t h e u r g e n c y is to h a v e the
p i p e l i n e b u i l t up by 1995-2000.
B e c a u s e d o m e s t i c f o o d c o n s i s t s l a r g e l y of s m a l l - s c a l e p r o d u c t i o n by
p o o r p e o p l e w i t h - on a v e r a g e - 7 5 % c o n s u m e d in t h e h o u s e h o l d o r
c o m m e r c i a l i s e d l o c a l l y , t h e s w i n g f r o m r h e t o r i c a l s u p p o r t to e n a b l i n g
s u p p o r t ( b o t h in A f r i c a a n d g l o b a l l y ) is v e r y l a r g e l y y et t o be a r t i c u l a t e d
a n d a c t e d u p o n . F o o d a i d n e e d s to be c o n v e r t e d f r o m t h e s u r v i v a l c or e
of e m e r g e n c y a s s i s t a n c e to a m o r e s o p h i s t i c a t e d f o o d s e c u r i t y a n d r u r a l
l i v e l i h o o d r e h a b i l i t a t i o n a n d d e v e l o p m e n t t o o l on t h e b a s i s of n a t i o n a l l y
d e s i g n e d s t r a t e g i e s n e g o t i a t e d w i t h p r o v i d e r s . In t h e c a s e s of big r e c i p ­
i en ts, p h a s e d o w n s wi l l t a k e l o n g e n o u g h to a l l o w p l a n n i n g of s u b s t i t u t e
f o r m s of r e s o u r c e t r a n s f e r s w h e r e a p p r o p r i a t e , e.g. M o z a m b i q u e has
p e r h a p s t w o m i l l i o n t o n n e s of g r a i n a n d r o o t c r o p g r a i n e q u i v a l e n t p r o ­
d u c t i o n , v e r s u s t h e m i n i m u m t h r e e m i l l i o n w h i c h a r e n e e d e d . A b o u t half
t h e g a p is f o o d a id a n d h al f h u n g e r . If - w i t h p e a c e a n d r u r a l r e n a b i l i t a t i o n - 2000 o u t p u t w a s 6 7 % a b o v e 1991, p o p u l a t i o n u p 2 5 % a nd the
h u n g e r g a p f i l l e d , t h e f o o d a i d n e e d w o u l d r e m a i n at h a l f a m i l l i o n t o n n e s
a l t h o u g h it w o u l d t h e n b e g i n to d e c l i n e r a p i d l y if t h e g r o w t h f o o d p r o ­
d u c t i o n r e m a i n e d w e l l a b o v e t h a t of p o p u l a t i o n .
(14) D e m o b i l i s a t i o n s u p p o r t is a r e l a t i v e l y n e w c o n c e p t u a l a p p r o a c h . It has
b e e n b r o u g h t o n to t h e a g e n d a by M o z a m b i c a n i n i t i a t i v e s , t en t a t i v e
S w i s s c o m m i t m e n t s to h e l p s u p p o r t t h e m a n d J a p a n ' s h i g h - p r o f i l e p r o ­
p o s a l s to r e l a t e a i d to r e d u c e d m i l i t a r y s p e n d i n g .
In w a r - e n d i n g a n d
p o s t - w a r c o n d i t i o n s in S S A (e.g. A n g o l a , M o z a m b i q u e , S o m a l i a ,
Ethio pia /Eritrea, Sudan, Lib eria, U ganda and R w a n d a ) e n d in g w a r should
le a d to t h e d e m o b i l i s a t i o n of m o s t c o m b a t a n t s ( an d t h e r e t r i e v a l of t h e i r
arms).
T h at c a l l s f o r d e m o b i l i s a t i o n a l l o w a n c e s , p l u s e d u c a t i o n and
l i v e l i h o o d r e h a b i l i t a t i o n s u p p o r t . W i t h o u t t h e s e it m a y be i m p o s s i b l e to
c o n v i n c e m i l i t a r y f o r c e s ( r eb e l o r g o v e r n m e n t ) to l ay d o w n g u n s f o r hoes
o r s a w s , a n d to a v o i d p u b l i c s e c t o r w a r t u r n i n g i n t o p r i v a t i s e d a r m e d
banditry.
F u r t h e r , w i t h o u t g e n e r a l r e h a b i l i t a t i o n of t h e l i v e l i h o o d s of ward i s l o c a t e d a n d p a u p e r i s e d p e o p l e , s e c u r i t y w i l l at b e s t b e f r a g i l e . Too
m a n y g u n s a r e t o o a c c e s s i b l e a n d t o o m a n y g r i e v a n c e s r e m a i n cl e ar ly
in m e m o r y to e x p e c t s t a g n a n t p o v e r t y a n d r e c u r r e n t p a u p e r i s a t i o n to be
stable o r peaceful.
-
31
-
C l e a r p l e d g e s o f d e m o b i l i s a t i o n a n d r e h a b i l i t a t i o n a i d (e.g. by J a p a n a nd
S w i t z e r l a n d ) a v a i l a b l e to St at es w i t h p e a c e and s e c u r i t y r e s t o r a t i o n
p r o g r a m m e s w o u l d b ot h f a c i l i t a t e a n d s t i m u l a t e p ea ce (and a l l o w m i l i t a r y
s p e n d i n g cuts) w i t h o u t r e q u i r i n g d e t a i l e d p l e d g e r k n o w l e d g e of, o r
I n t e r v e n t i o n in, t he h i s t o r i c o - c o n t e x t u a l d y n a m i c s of p e a c e / c o n f l i c t r e s o l ­
u t i o n p r o c e s s e s at t h e p o l i t i c o - m i l i t a r y level.
(15) E n v i r o n m e n t is a t o p i c on w h i c h t h e r e is m o r e a g r e e m e n t t h a n m a y be
a p p a r e n t . It is an A f r i c a n (not a N o r t h e r n ) t r a d i t i o n t hat t he Earth is i n ­
h e r i t e d f r o m t he a n c e s t o r s in t r u s t f o r t h e s u c c e e d i n g g e n e r a t i o n s . It is
a f ac t t h a t n e e d (often as a r e s u l t of s o m e l a nd a m a s s e r ' s g r e e d ) is t he
m a i n c a u s e of f o r e s t a n d b u s h d e s t r u c t i o n a n d n e o - d e s e r t i f i c a t i o n in
S SA . T h e r e is g r o w i n g r e a l i s a t i o n t ha t if p o o r p e o p l e a r e to p r o m o t e
c o n s e r v a t i o n t h e n t h e y m u s t be e m p o w e r e d to d o so a n d to h a v e m a t e ­
rial i n c e n t i v e s to m a k e it w o r t h t h e i r w h i l e . N o r t h e r n c o n s e r v a t i o n i s t s
a n d g l o b a l w a r m i n g l i m i t a t i o n a d v o c a t e s a r e c o m i n g to a c c e p t t ha t t he
r i c h e r c o u n t r i e s m u s t p ay m o s t of t h e b i l l s f o r p r e s e r v i n g ' t h e c o m m o n
h e r i t a g e of m a n k i n d ' , i n c l u d i n g c l i m a t e as w e ll as r h i n o c e r o s e s . H o w ­
e v e r . t h e s t e r e o t y p e s of t h e n a t u r e - d e s t r o y i n g A f r i c a n a n d t he
c o n s e r v a t i o n i s t e a g e r to s a v e c r o c o d i l e s a n d a n o p h e l e s m o s q u i t o s (not
A f r i c a n c h i l d r e n ) o r to b l o c k t s e t s e fly c o n t r o l to in o r d e r to f o r c e back
c a tt l e a n d w i d e n g a m e r e s e r v e s , c o n t i n u e to b e d e v i l d i s c o u r s e a n d a c ­
tual p ro g r a m m e articulation.
P o s s i b l e e l e m e n t s i n c l u d e : r o t a t i o n a l , s e l e c t i v e c u t t i n g of f o r e s t s w i t h
parallel replantin g (which makes short-term , highest b id d e r contracts for
lo g g in g quite in appropria te): m ixed g am e/cattle ranchin g with m a jo r ex­
p o r t d e v e l o p m e n t f o r g a m e m e a t (and f o r h u n t i n g in t h e s e c o m m e r c i a l
a r e a s ) ; a g r e e d p r e s e r v a t i o n p r o g r a m m e s f o r w i l d e r n e s s a r e a s a nd w i l d
a n i m a l c o n s e r v a t i o n a r e a s w i t h c o m p a t i b l e t o u r i s t p r o g r a m m e s a nd
s p i n - o f f b e n e f i t s to r e s i d e n t o r n e i g h b o u r i n g p o p u l a t i o n s (with, as a c o r ­
o l l a r y , r e s t o r a t i o n of a c o n s e r v a t i o n - r e l a t e d l egal i v o r y t r a d e , w h o s e
b e n e f i t s p a y A f r i c a n f a r m e r s n e a r g a m e r e s e r v e s , a nd f o r a n i m a l p r o ­
t e c t i o n s e r v i c e s ) ; r e s e a r c h on e f f ic i en t h o u s e h o l d a n d v i l l a g e s y l v i c u l t u r e
j o i n t l y m e e t i n g f u e l / f o d d e r / f o o d / b u i l d i n g m a t e r i a l n ee d s; w a t e r d e v e l o p ­
m e n t , use, c o n s e r v a t i o n ( e s p e c i a l l y s m a l l - s c a l e but a l so u r b a n / m i n i n g to
a l l o c a t e n a t i o n a l s u p p l i e s a n d to e n c o u r a g e c o n s e r v a t i o n by p r i c e a n d
o t h e r r a t i o n i n g ) ; la n d r e s t o r a t i o n to r e v e r s e n e o - d e s e r t i f i c a t i o n . In e ac h
a r e a p a r t i a l , a r t i c u l a t e d p r o g r a m m e s a n d s o m e w o r k i n g p r o j e c t s e xi st .
A f r i c a n i n t e r e s t e x i st s t o o - but not A f r i c a n f u n d s . Debt w r i t e - o f f a l o n e
w i l l n ot d o - n e w cash i n j e c t i o n s (and s o m e TA s u p p o r t f o r i n s t i t u t i o n
b u i l d i n g , r e s e a r c h , i n t e r i m p e r s o n n e l ) a re n e e d e d .
(16)
P o p u l a t i o n p o l i c y is an a r e a in w h i c h t h e r e is e n o u g h s u b s t a n t i v e
a g r e e m e n t for m eanin gful cooperation:
l a r g e n u m b e r s of b i r t h s p e r
m o t h e r a r e bad f o r h o u s e h o l d h ea lt h, l a n d use p r a c t i c e a n d f i n a n c i a l
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32
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s a fe t y at m i c r o - l e v e l a n d , n a t i o n a l l y , t h e y p o s e m a c r o - h e a l t h e n v i r o n ­
m e n t a l a n d b a s i c s e r v i c e f i n a n c e p r o b l e m s . T h e m a i n p r o b l e m - on both
s i d e s - is p r o b a b l y o n e of t o o n a r r o w an a p p r o a c h . D e m a n d f o r c hild
s p a c i n g , as w e l l as s u p p l y of e n a b l i n g i n f o r m a t i o n a n d t e c h n o l o g y , n e e d s
to be i n c r e a s e d . O n h i s t o r i c (a nd p r o b a b l y S S A ) e x p e r i e n c e , r e d u c e d
i n f a n t m o r t a l i t y , i n c r e a s e d life e x p e c t a n c y , r e d u c e d s e v e r e m a l n u t r i t i o n ,
e x t e n d e d f e m a l e e d u c a t i o n a n d a c c e s s to o l d - a g e s e c u r i t y f r o m s o u r c e s
b e y o n d o n e ' s s u r v i v i n g c h i l d r e n a r e c r u c i a l of r e d u c i n g p o p u l a t i o n
g r o w t h (via s h r i n k i n g d e s i r e d c o m p l e t e d f a m i l y si ze ). T h e r e f o r e , mo st
b a s ic s e rv ic e s a nd p o v e r t y re d u c tio n p r o g r a m m e s a re a t le a st as crucia l
t o p o p u l a t i o n p r a x i s a s t h e i t e m s u s u a l l y l i s t e d u n d e r p o p u l a t i o n p o l ic y .
A t p r o m o t i o n a l l eve l, an o d d i n v e r t e d g e n d e r b i a s l i m i t s e f f e c t i v e n e s s e d u c a t i o n is o n l y p e r i p h e r a l l y d i r e c t e d at m e n , t h o u g h e v i d e n c e s u g g e s t s
t h e y h a v e a l a r g e i n f l u e n c e on w h e t h e r c h i l d s p a c i n g is p r a c t i c e d a n d are
- o n a v e r a g e - d i s t i n c t l y less a w a r e of. o r c o n v i n c e d of, its v a l u e t han
women.
(17) H e a l t h s u f f e r s f r o m l a c k o f r e s o u r c e s a n d o f v i a b l e s t r a t e g i c a p p r o a c h e s
with c o n s is te n t o p e r a t io n a l backing.
H e a l t h f o r all, u n i v e r s a l p r i m a r y
h e a l t h c a r e , p r i v a t i s a t i o n a n d f ees, h o l i s t i c a p p r o a c h e s a n d i s o l a t e d ' s i l ­
v e r b u l l e t ' a p p r o a c h e s (e.g. u n i v e r s a l i m m u n i s a t i o n , A I D S e d u c a t i o n ,
m o t h e r - c h i l d (well c h i l d ) c l i n i c s , c o m m u n i t y h e a l t h w o r k e r s ) o p e r a t e d
v e r t i c a l l y in w a y s w h i c h f r a g m e n t r a t h e r t h a n b u i l d u p n a t i o n a l , p r o v i n c i a l
o r l o ca l h e a l t h s y s t e m s , a r e all h e a v i l y a d v o c a t e d , s o m e t i m e s by the
sam e M in is trie s and agencie s.
M o r e c o h e r e n t p l a n n i n g , l e a d i n g to
p r a c t i c e w h i c h d e c i d e s on, p r i o r i t i s e s a n d r e l a t e s (by t r a d e - o f f s if n o t h i n g
e l s e) t h e s e m e a s u r e s , is u r g e n t . E x t e r n a l a s s i s t a n c e is n e e d e d on i m p o r t
c o n t e n t ( e q u i p m e n t , v e h i c l e s a n d f uel, as w e l l as d r u g s a n d o t h e r s u p ­
p l ie s ) a n d r e s e a r c h a n d t r a i n i n g .
It is n o t n e e d e d f o r i m p o s i n g ' u n i ­
v e r s a l ' g o a l s cast i nt o i n f l e x i b l e t a r g e t s a n d p r o g r a m m e s , p a r t i c u l a r l y as
r e g a r d s p r i v a t i s a t i o n ( s e l e c t i v e l y usef ul a s a s a f e t y v a l v e , b ut i r r e l e v a n t
to 9 0 % of A f r i c a n s f o r c o s t r e a s o n s ) a n d d o m e s t i c f i n a n c e . U s e r fees
n e e d to a p p r o a c h as c l o s e l y as p o s s i b l e a s e m i - i n s u r a n c e s y s t e m (e.g.
an a n n u a l h o u s e h o l d l e v y r a t h e r t h a n p o i n t of u se c h a r g e s in l o w i n c o m e
areas).
F u r t h e r , t h e r e is no m o r a l r e a s o n to p r e f e r s m a l l , h a r d - t o a d m i n i s t e r f e es , to l a r g e , e a s y - t o - a d m i n i s t e r , t a x e s (e.g. s a l e s t a x b oost s
o n h e a l t h i n h i b i t e r s s u c h as a l c o h o l , t o b a c c o p r o d u c t s a n d a u t o m o b i l e s ,
o r a p o r t i o n of lo ca l g o v e r n m e n t l a n d r e n t s a n d b u i l d i n g r a t e s ) a n d t he re
a r e o f t e n a d m i n i s t r a t i v e a n d c o l l e c t i o n / c o s t r a t i o e f f i c i e n c y r e a s o n s to
p r e f e r t h e l at ter.
A I D S is a s u b - t o p i c w i t h i n h e a l t h but, w i t h u p to 2 5 - 3 0 % of a du lt s
H I V - a f f l i c t e d in s o m e S S A c o u n t r i e s a n d t h e A f r i c a n a v e r a g e l i k e l y to be
6 - 8 % ( up to 25 m i l l i o n a d u l t s ) , it is not a m i n o r t o p i c . B u t h i g h - t e c h a p ­
p r o a c h e s c a n n o t be g e n e r a l i s e d ; c o n d o m s u p p l y s u p p o r t s e e m s to c o n ­
sist of 1-2 p e r a d u l t m a l e p e r y e a r , w h i c h w o u l d a p p e a r s o m e w h a t
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33
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i n a d e q u a t e : e ff ect ive e d u c a t i o n is l i k e l y to be A f r i c a n d e s i g n e d a n d o p ­
e r a t e d ( or to f l o w f r o m t h e b r u t a l r e a l i t y of b u r y i n g r e la ti ves ). The usef ul
e x t e r n a l c o n t r i b u t i o n w o u l d be to k e e p A f r i c a on t he r e s e a r c h a n d p r e ­
ventive drug/vaccine d e v e lo p m e n t agendas.
That p r o b a b i y r e q u i r e s
a d a p t i v e r e s e a r c h in A f r i c a ( i n c l u d i n g by n o n - A f r i c a n s ) a nd s u b s i d i e s to
A f r i c a n HIV s t r a i n - o r i e n t e d p r e v e n t i o n d r u g s / v a c c i n e d e v e l o p m e n t a n d
p r o d u c t i o n (not n e c e s s a r i l y in A f r i c a ) .
T h e s e a r e p o i n t s f o r an A f r i c a n - g l o b a l a g e n d a f o r d i a l o g u e t o w a r d a 1990s
com pact.
C l e a r l y no s u c h a g r e e m e n t can be b i n d i n g , n o r can it i n c l u d e
g u a r a n t e e s a s to r es ul t s. At o v e r a l l l evel it c a n n o t t ak e into a c c o u n t e v e r y
c o n t e x t u a l s p e c i f i c i t y o r d e t a i l e d f u t u r e r e s p o n s e s to u n f o r e s e e n f u t u r e
e v e n t s . To a t t e m p t to d o so w o u l d be to lo se w h a t is a t t a i n a b l e - a f r a m e w o r k
w i t h i n w h i c h A f r i c a n St at es c a n t a k e t h e i n i t i a t i v e in d e s i g n i n g c o u n t r y
p r o g r a m m e s w i t h a r e a s o n a b l e e x p e c t a t i o n of p o s i t i v e e x t e r n a l r e s p o n s e
l e a d i n g to sets of o p e r a t i o n a l a g r e e m e n t s , p l e d g e s a nd c o n t r a c t s . H o w e v e r ,
f o r t h a t to h a p p e n , f o u r c h a n g e s w h i c h r e l a t e to a t t i t u d e s a n d a p p r o a c h e s
r a t h e r t h a n to s u b s t a n c e a n d s e c t o r s a r e n e e d e d :
(1)
O p e r a t i o n a l (as we ll as v e r b a l ) a c c e p t a n c e t h a t A f r i c a n i n i t i a t i v e s wil l not
a l w a y s be w h a t d o n o r s ( i n t e r n a t i o n a l , b i l a t e r a l , g l o b a l o r NGO) w o u l d
h a v e e x p e c t e d o r s e l e c t e d ; t h a t t h i s is a p o t e n t i a l s t r e n g t h , not n e c e s ­
s a r i l y a w e a k n e s s o r an e c c e n t r i c i t y ; a nd t ha t u n l e s s d i a l o g u e a n d p r o ­
g r a m m i n g p r o c e e d on t ha t b a s i s t h e i r c o n c l u s i o n s a n d c o n t r a c t s wi l l
h a v e no l a s t i n g base in A f r i c a ;
(2)
A v o i d a n c e of f a s h i o n s w h i c h r e w o r k old c o n c e p t s in n e w w o r d s a nd
o v e r - e m p h a s i z e t h e i r o w n n o v e l a s p e c t s , at t he p r i c e of v e r y s u b s t a n t i a l
i n t e l l e c t u a l a n d i n s t i t u t i o n a l c o n f u s i o n on i n t r o d u c t i o n ; d i s i l l u s i o n on i n ­
t r o d u c t i o n of a n e w f a s h i o n , a b a n d o n i n g w h a t wa s v a l i d as w e l l as w h a t
w a s u n s o u n d o r h y p e in t h e o l d ; c y n i c i s m w h e n old f a s h i o n s s u d d e n l y
r e a p p e a r ; a n d a l oss of s t a b i l i t y a n d i n c r e m e n t a l b u i l d i n g on w h a t has
b e e n a c h i e v e d t h r o u g h o u t t h e c yc le .
Th e v a l u e of n e w s l o g a n s a nd
p r e s e n t a t i o n s to r e n e w a t t e n t i o n a n d r e f i n e a p p r o a c h e s is o n e t h i n g ; t he
c o s t o f d i s c o n t i n u o u s , n o n - c u m u l a t i v e c h a n g e s in e m p h a s i s is a n o t h e r .
(3)
The related acceptance that there are no simple , gen e ra l, fast 's ilv e r
b u l l e t ' s o l u t i o n s e x c e p t w r o n g o n e s . I m b a l a n c e s in o n e d i r e c t i o n a r e not
c u r e d by e q u a l a nd o p p o s i t e n e w i m b a l a n c e s . F o r e x a m p l e , p r e -1 98 0
u n d e r e m p h a s i s on m a c r o - e c o n o m i c b a l a n c e r e q u i r e d a c t i o n b ut t h e e a r l y
1 9 8 0s ' t e n d e n c y to b e l i e v e - to m o d i f y K w a m e N k r u m a h ' s b i b l i c a l p a r a ­
p h r a s e , " s e e k ye f ir st t h e k i n g d o m of m a c r o - e c o n o m i c s t a b i l i t y a n d of t h e
m a r k e t a n d all else sh al l be a d d e d u nt o y e " , w a s v e r y m u c h a m i s t a k e ,
t o o . M u l t i p l e a c t i o n s on m u l t i p l e l e v e l s a r e r e q u i r e d . F o r e x a m p l e , t h e
f a i l u r e o f m a n y m a n a g e d m a r k e t a n d a d m i n i s t r a t i v e m e a s u r e s to c o p e
w i t h m a r k e t f a i l u r e in SSA is a f a c t a n d r e q u i r e s c o r r e c t i v e a c t i o n b u t it
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does not solve the g e n u in e p r o b le m s which the m a r k e t fa ilu re s caused
a n d c o n t i n u e to c a u s e , n o r d o e s it o b v i a t e t h e n e e d to f i n d m o r e effective
a n d less c o s t l y m a r k e t f r a m e o r l i m i t s e t t i n g a n d m a n a g e m e n t i n t e r ­
ventions.
(4)
O u t s i d e r s a n d , in p a r t i c u l a r , o u t s i d e i n s t i t u t i o n s , ( p u b l i c o r p r i v a t e ) ,
c a n n o t b e f u l l y a c c o u n t a b l e to A f r i c a n s (as w e l l as to t h e i r o w n m e m b e r s ,
f u n d e r s , e l e c t o r a t e s ) a n d s h o u l d n e i t h e r p u r p o r t to be, n o r act as if t hey
w e r e - le as t of all if t h e y h a v e c o n f u s e d t h e m s e l v e s i n t o b e l i e v i n g t hey
a r e v a l i d r e p r e s e n t a t i v e s of o r d i n a r y A f r i c a n p e o p l e a g a i n s t A f r i c a ' s own
c ivi l s o c i e t i e s a n d g o v e r n m e n t a l i n s t i t u t i o n s . T h e t e m p t a t i o n to pl ay the
r o l e of P l a t o n i c G u a r d i a n r u n s d e e p - a n d is by no r e a s o n a l w a y s selfs e r v i n g - b u t it is a r o a d t o c o n f l i c t a n d a w a y f r o m c a p a c i t y - b u i l d i n g by
A f r i c a n s in A f r i c a , w h e t h e r t h e c a p a c i t y is f o r f u n c t i o n i n g r e p r e s e n t a ­
t i o n a l s y s t e m s o r f o r f u n c t i o n i n g e m e r g e n c y a s s i s t a n c e t r a n s p o r t units.
A d v o c a c y , a d v i c e , t e c h n i c a l a s s i s t a n c e a n d p r o v i s i o n of a g r e e d (and
l i m i t e d ) o p e r a t i o n a l s e r v i c e s at t i m e s a r e c l o s e to r e p r e s e n t a t i o n , c o m ­
m a n d g i v i n g , d o i n g it f o r t h e m a n d r u n n i n g e v e r y t h i n g , b ut m a i n t a i n i n g
t h e d i f f e r e n c e is f u n d a m e n t a l .
S i m p l y a p p l y i n g m o r e r e s o u r c e s o r m o r e p r e s s u r e w i l l n ot d o t h e j o b in the
1990s a n y m o r e t h a n s i m p l y r a i s i n g g r o s s f i x e d c a p i t a l f o r m a t i o n l e v el s and
e x t e r n a l b o r r o w i n g d i d t h e j o b in t h e late 1970s. S t r u c t u r a l a d j u s t m e n t and
t r a n s f o r m a t i o n a r e as u r g e n t l y n e e d e d in A f r i c a n / c o - o p e r a t i n g p a r t n e r r e ­
l a t i o n s , p r o g r a m m e s , p r i o r i t i e s a n d p r o c e d u r e s as in a n y o t h e r area of
Africa n e c o n o m ic strategy, polic y and praxis. W ith o u t the m , reso urce tra ns­
f e r i n c r e a s e s ca n e n s u r e s u r v i v a l a n d can p l u g t h e i m p o r t / s a v i n g s g aps in
s o m e o t h e r w i s e v i a b l e n a t i o n a l e x e r c i s e s - b ut no m o r e . T h e y wi l l lead n ei ­
t h e r to s u s t a i n a b i l i t y a n d s t r u c t u r a l t r a n s f o r m a t i o n of p r o d u c t i o n , n o r to rapid
r e d u c t i o n of a b s o l u t e p o v e r t y . H o w e v e r , t h e c a s e is n ot e i t h e r / o r , r a t h e r it is
b o t h / a n d . M o r e r e s o u r c e i n f l o w s (the 4 % t a r g e t ) a n d less o u t f l o w s (the e x ­
t e r n a l w r i t e - o f f s ) a r e c r u c i a l to t h e q u a l i t y a n d r e a l l o c a t i o n t r a n s f o r m a t i o n
t a r g e t s b e i n g a c h i e v e d . To c r e a t e an e n a b l i n g c l i m a t e f o r m o r e e ff ici ent r e ­
s o u r c e use in A f r i c a - a n d e s p e c i a l l y f o r a c t i n g o n a m e d i u m - t e r m s t ra teg y
r a t h e r t h a n on a d a y - t o - d a y o r y e a r - t o - y e a r c r i s i s c o n t a i n m e n t a nd s ur vi va l
b a s i s - d o e s r e q u i r e m o r e r e s o u r c e s to be m a d e a v a i l a b l e .
E nv oi
On t h e o v e r a l l r e c o r d of t h e 1980s, t h e r e is l i t t le c a u s e f o r o p t i m i s m . On
c l o s e r i n s p e c t i o n , t h e 1986-90 e c o n o m i c r e c o r d in m o s t A f r i c a n c o u n t r i e s
l o o k s l es s u n p r o m i s i n g ( e v e n if still p r o b l e m a t i c ) as a b a s e f o r r e n e w e d
progress.
O n g o a l s p l u s p r o g r a m m a t i c w a y s a n d m e a n s , t h e r e a l i t y of a
v e h e m e n t d i v e r g e n c e e a r l y in t h e d e c a d e h as n o w n a r r o w e d a n d . to a d e ­
g r e e , t h a t n a r r o w i n g is r e c o g n i s e d by m o s t d e c i s i o n - t a k e r s ( e v e n if not by
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35
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m any rhetoricians
stumps).
and
publicists
on
political,
academic
and
jo urnalistic
B u t on h o w to c o n d u c t a d i a l o g u e l e a d i n g to a w o r k a b l e t w o - v / a y c o m p a c t ,
a n d h o w t o a v o i d b e i n g p r e s e n t e d a n d p u s h e d a n d p r o g r a m m e d in w a y s
a m o u n t i n g t o d o m i n a t i o n a n d h o w to a v e r t r e a c t i o n s to it b e i n g p r e s e n t e d
( not a l w a y s e r r o n e o u s l y ) as last d i t c h r e s i s t a n c e to a n e w c o l o n i a l era, it is
h a r d e r to be o p t i m i s t i c t h a t p e r c e p t i o n g a p s a r e n a r r o w i n g o r t h a t t h e r e a r e
c l e a r e x a m p l e s of p ar ti a l s u c c e s s e s on w h i c h to b u i l d . P e r h a p s t h e i n q u e s t
o n U N P A A E R D can p r o v i d e s u c h a n o p p o r t u n i t y . B e c a u s e it r e a l l y w a s U N ­
PAID, the point that A fric a 's s u r v iv a l a nd p a r tia l t u r n a ro u n d has been p r i ­
m a r i l y a n A f r i c a n a c h i e v e m e n t a n d o n e c o s t l y p r i m a r i l y to A f r i c a n s s h o u l d
be m o d e r a t e l y e a s y to r e c o g n i s e . F r o m t ha t c o u l d f l o w a c c e p t a n c e t h a t m o r e
A f r i c a n l e a d e r s h i p in p r o g r a m m e d e s i g n a n d in m o n i t o r i n g e x t e r n a l i n p u t s
( i n c l u d i n g p e r s o n n e l ) is c r u c i a l b o t h to e f f i c i e n c y of r e a c h i n g o b j e c t i v e s a n d
t o a c c o u n t a b i l i t y . The n e e d f o r i n p u t s - i n c l u d i n g k n o w l e d g e - to s p e e d (or,
in t h e w a r - r a v a g e d c o u n t r i e s , s e c u r e ) s oc ia l a n d e c o n o m i c r e c o v e r y a n d t he
f ac t t hat , to m o b i l i s e t h e s e i n p u t s , it is n e c e s s a r y to t ak e int o a c c o u n t t he
v i e w s of c o o p e r a t i n g p a r t n e r s , a r e a l r e a d y r e c o g n i s e d , o n l y t o o c l e a r l y , on
t h e A f r i c a n si de .
B o t h A f r i c a a n d - p e r h a p s to a s l i g h t l y l es s er , a n d c e r t a i n l y less e v i d e n t , e x ­
t e n t - t h e rest of t h e w o r l d h a v e no o p t i o n but to c o n t i n u e t he q u e s t f o r A f r i c a n
recovery.
' A luta c o n t i n u a ' (the s t r u g g l e c o n t i n u e s ) is a w o r k i n g a nd
m o b i l i s i n g r e a l i t y - as d e m o n s t r a t e d in o n e of its a u t h o r c o u n t r i e s ,
M o z a m b i q u e - f o r l i b e r a t i o n f r o m c o l o n i a l r u le in t he 1960-75 p e r i o d ; t o w a r d
t r a n s i t i o n to d e v e l o p m e n t d u r i n g 1975-80; f o r s u r v i v a l a g a i n s t S o u t h - A f r i c a n
m a n a g e d a g g r e s s i v e t e r r o r i s m f r o m 1981-87; in s u p p o r t of p o l i t i c a l , soci al
a n d e c o n o m i c r e h a b i l i t a t i o n t o d a y . U n d e r m o r e f a v o u r a b l e c o n d i t i o n s , t he
B o t s w a n a e v o c a t i o n of T u l a ! Pul a!
P u l a ! ' (Wat er, We a l t h , W e l l b e i n g ) has
p r o v e n to be at least m o d e s t l y a n d g r a d u a l l y a t t a i n a b l e .
S u r v i v a l in
M o z a m b i q u e a n d b r o a d e r s u c c e s s in B o t s w a n a - f u l l y r e c o g n i s i n g t h e i r l i m i ­
t a t i o n s - a r e e x a m p l e s of l a s t i n g A f r i c a n a c h i e v e m e n t s w h i c h s h o u l d i m p e l
t h e m e m b e r s of t he i n t e r n a t i o n a l c o m m u n i t y , b ot h on m o r a l g r o u n d s a n d in
t h e i r o w n s e l f - i n t e r e s t , to put in p l a c e a s t r u c t u r a l l y a d j u s t e d a n d t r a n s f o r m e d
s u c c e s s o r to U N P A A E R D .
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36
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