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Initiative on the Digital Economy
Platform Shift: How New Biz Models Are
Changing the Shape of Industry
Marshall Van Alstyne
Twitter: @InfoEcon :: [email protected] :: PlatformEconomics.com
April 10, 2015
© 2015 Parker, Van Alstyne & Choudary
1
InterBrand: 2013 Best Global Brands
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© 2015 Parker, Van Alstyne & Choudary
2
These Grew Fastest
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© 2015 Parker, Van Alstyne & Choudary
3
These are Platforms
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© 2015 Parker, Van Alstyne & Choudary
4
Dominated by Platforms
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© 2015 Parker, Van Alstyne & Choudary
5
Platform Firms Becoming More Important in Economy
FIRM
MARKET CAP
Apple
627
Exxon Mobile
385
Microsoft
377
Berkshire Hathaway
Google
357
344
3 of top 5 firms in 2015 by market cap.
Twitter: @InfoEcon :: [email protected] :: PlatformEconomics.com
© 2015 Parker, Van Alstyne & Choudary
6
Platform Firms Becoming More Important in Economy
Percentage of Platform Firms weighted by MKT CAP
(2001-2014)
MKT CAP Weighted Platform
Firms
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
2001 2002
2003
2004 2005
2006
2007 2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2014
% of top 20 firms by market cap since 2001
Twitter: @InfoEcon :: [email protected] :: PlatformEconomics.com
© 2015 Parker, Van Alstyne & Choudary
7
The Product Business
Model is Broken
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© 2015 Parker, Van Alstyne & Choudary
© 2015 Parker, Van Alstyne & Choudary
8
The Product Business Model is Broken
In 2009, BlackBerry had nearly 50% market share in
U.S. operating systems, according to IDC. Now: 2.1%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
2008
2009
Twitter: @InfoEcon :: [email protected] :: PlatformEconomics.com
2010
2011
2012
2013
© 2015 Parker, Van Alstyne & Choudary
9
1980-2000 Microsoft Platform Beats Apple Product
Apple launched the PC revolution but Microsoft licensed
widely, built a huge developer ecosystem, 6X larger.
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© 2015 Parker, Van Alstyne & Choudary
10
Apple Feb 5, 1996
Michael Dell - ”Shut it down and give the money back to the
shareholders.”
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© 2015 Parker, Van Alstyne & Choudary
11
Interbrand: 2014 Best Global Brands
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© 2015 Parker, Van Alstyne & Choudary
12
Nike Builds a Biz Platform
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© 2015 Parker, Van Alstyne & Choudary
13
14
How would you create a platform around spice?
1. Enumerate embeddable features: salty,
citrus, sour, toasted, …
2. Get consumer preferences
3. Match to best recipes
4. Mix new combinations, help users create
& upload, allow ratings, build a
community
Twitter: @InfoEcon :: [email protected] :: PlatformEconomics.com
© 2015 Parker, Van Alstyne & Choudary
15
Create a whole geometry of flavor combinations
16
To Be a Platform
The system must provide a useful
function or service and allow 3rd
party access.
Examples:
iTunes: get music onto iPod
SAP: execute ERP systems
Facebook: connect family, friends & acquaintances
Cisco Smart Grids: capture AC/DC sources, route power
Nike Fuel: motion capture and social benchmarking
Products have features,
Platforms have communities
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© 2015 Parker, Van Alstyne & Choudary
17
How are these Related?
eBay Sellers
Uber Drivers
Xbox Developers
Amex Merchants
Aga Khan Doctors
YouTube Videographers
AirBnb Rooms
Tesla Charge Stations
Mechanical Turk Laborers
LinkedIn Employers
Android Developers
eBay Buyers
Uber Riders
Xbox Gamers
Amex CardHolders
Aga Khan Patients
YouTube Viewers
AirBnb Renters
Tesla Car Drivers
Mechanical Turk Jobs
LinkedIn Employees
Android Users
Each Side Attracts More of the Other
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© 2015 Parker, Van Alstyne & Choudary
18
More Android Developers
… get more Android Users…
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More Android Users
… get more Android Developers…
© 2015 Parker, Van Alstyne & Choudary
Why Platforms Beat Products Every Time
See ‘’Platform Envelopment’’ (2011) Strategic Management Journal, Eisenmann, Parker & Van Alstyne
Twitter: @InfoEcon :: [email protected] :: PlatformEconomics.com
© 2015 Parker, Van Alstyne & Choudary
Apple iPod pre-Platform
Apple iPod
Listener
$
(1) Product First Thinking
(2) Standard linear value chain
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Music
Producer
Retailer
$
$
(3) User bought music retail (or P2P)
(4) Minimal network effects
© 2015 Parker, Van Alstyne & Choudary
21
Apple iPod Combined with iTunes
Apple iPod
Listener
$
Music
Producer
Retailer
$
$
Apple Platform
Twitter: @InfoEcon :: [email protected] :: PlatformEconomics.com
© 2015 Parker, Van Alstyne & Choudary
22
Apple iPod post-Platform
User
Content
$
$$
Apple
(1) Remove supply chain inefficiency
(2) Triangular platform supply network
(3) Apple owns financial chokepoint
Twitter: @InfoEcon :: [email protected] :: PlatformEconomics.com
(4) Apple helps users find content
(5) Stronger network effects
© 2015 Parker, Van Alstyne & Choudary
23
How Apple is Killing Standalone Platforms
Dvp
r
Usr
User
Ga
m
Usr
Usr
Mus
Lumia
PSP
Zune
Nokia
Sony
Microsoft
User
Calls
Music
MP3
Video
TV
Games
Dvpr
Web
HTM
L
Publi
eBooks
Sony could have done this. It has many great standalone products.
Apple has vastly stronger network effects.
Google is not making this mistake with Android
Twitter: @InfoEcon :: [email protected] :: PlatformEconomics.com
© 2015 Parker, Van Alstyne & Choudary
24
How Apple is Killing Standalone Platforms
2007
Today
Dvp
r
Usr
$30/share
User
2007
Today
Ga
m
Usr
$8/share
$53/share
Usr
Mus
$30/share
Lumia
PSP
Zune
Nokia
Sony
Microsoft
User
Calls
Music
MP3
Video
TV
Games
Dvpr
Web
HTM
L
Publi
eBooks
So what happened?
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© 2015 Parker, Van Alstyne & Choudary
25
How Apple is Killing Standalone Platforms
P1
R1
Polycom
Speakerphone
User
R1
P1
U1
U1
P1
Cisco
Flip Camera
User
Calls
Music
MP3
Video
TV
Games
R1
U1
HP
Calculator
Dvpr
Web
HTM
L
Publi
eBook
s
Message for you: A great standalone product is not sufficient.
Twitter: @InfoEcon :: [email protected] :: PlatformEconomics.com
© 2015 Parker, Van Alstyne & Choudary
26
How Apple is Killing Standalone Platforms
Usr
Usr
Upld
Usr
Upld
Dvpr
GPS
Photo
Blkbry
TomTom
Flickr
RIM
User
User
Calls
Music
MP3
Video
TV
Games
Dvpr
Web
HTM
L
eBooks
Publi
Fitness
Wear
Message for you: A great standalone product is not sufficient.
Twitter: @InfoEcon :: [email protected] :: PlatformEconomics.com
© 2015 Parker, Van Alstyne & Choudary
27
Why Apple isn’t Killing Kindle: Amazon Ecosystem
© 2012 Zimedia
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© 2015 Parker, Van Alstyne & Choudary
In any market with network effects, the focus of
Reason: You can’t scale network effects inside as
attention must shift from inside to outside the firm.
easily as outside.
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© 2015 Parker, Van Alstyne & Choudary
Giants of Supply Economies of scale
Westinghouse
Dynamo
1893
Ford Model T
1908
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Carnegie Steel
1905
Vanderbilt
Colossus of
(Rail) Roads
© 2015 Parker, Van Alstyne & Choudary
32
Giants of Demand Side Economies of scale
Windows OS
1990s-00s
Micro Blog
Now
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Matched Mkts
Now
Social Networks
Now
© 2015 Parker, Van Alstyne & Choudary
34
What Changes :: Logistics & Supply Chains
Platforms Don’t Own All Production but Tap New
Value from Spare Resources and User Communities
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© 2015 Parker, Van Alstyne & Choudary
AirBnb sells users’ spare rooms, competing
with hotels that must own them
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© 2015 Parker, Van Alstyne & Choudary
RelayRides sells users’ spare cars,
competing with rental firms that must
own them
Instagram sold for
$1B not because of
contributions from 13
employees but from 30
million users
Twitter: @InfoEcon :: [email protected] :: PlatformEconomics.com
© 2015 Parker, Van Alstyne & Choudary
2005
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2013
© 2015 Parker, Van Alstyne & Choudary
© 2015 Parker, Van Alstyne & Choudary
38
``In 2015, Uber, the world’s largest
taxi company owns no vehicles,
Facebook the world’s most popular
media owner creates no content,
Alibaba the most valuable retailer
has no inventory, and Airbnb the
world’s largest hotelier owns no
real estate.’’
Tom Goodwin, Sr. VP of Strategy Havas Media
Twitter: @InfoEcon :: [email protected] :: PlatformEconomics.com
© 2015 Parker, Van Alstyne & Choudary
What changes :: Marketing & Prices
Monetizing Platforms Means Free Pricing is Profitable
See ‘’Strategies for Two Sided Markets” (2006) Harvard Business Review Eisenmann, Parker & Van Alstyne
Twitter: @InfoEcon :: [email protected] :: PlatformEconomics.com
© 2015 Parker, Van Alstyne & Choudary
To Price a Platform with Network Effects, Who Gets the Subsidy?
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© 2015 Parker, Van Alstyne & Choudary
42
Market Two
Price
Price
Market One
p1
p2
q1
Quantity
q2
Quantity
If markets are independent, collect profits in both.
See "Two Sided Network Effects” (2006) Management Science, Parker & Van Alstyne
Market Two
Price
Price
Market One
p2
p1
p1
p2
q1
q1
Quantity
q2
q2
Quantity
But if markets are coupled, discounting one builds demand in the
other.
See "Two Sided Network Effects” (2006) Management Science, Parker & Van Alstyne
There are 2 types of Free
1. Cellphones & Minutes,
Razors & Blades
2. eBay, Uber, Google, Amazon
all use 2-sided platform
pricing.
Twitter: @InfoEcon :: [email protected] :: PlatformEconomics.com
Group 2
Group 1
Platform
© 2015 Parker, Van Alstyne & Choudary
45
Nobel Prize in Economics 2014
For work on antitrust
regulation, market power
& two-sided platforms
Jean Tirole: Nobel Laureate in Economics 2015
Twitter: @InfoEcon :: [email protected] :: PlatformEconomics.com
© 2015 Parker, Van Alstyne & Choudary
What Changes :: Finance
Corporate valuation models that underestimate
market expansion due to network effects fail to invest
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© 2015 Parker, Van Alstyne & Choudary
•
•
Estimate global taxi market
• Estimate market share
Est. risk adjusted cash flow
• Consider proprietary
methods, barriers to
competition
•
Aswath Damodaran: NYU Finance professor, Corporate
Valuation
author, Herb Simon Prize.
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© 2015 Parker, Van Alstyne & Choudary
Value: $5.9 Billion
•
•
•
•
All true but overlooking
network effects.
Prices decline expanding to
rental car market and car
replacement market and
delivery market.
Oh, BTW, already 3x size in
2009 when Uber started.
Value: $17 Billion
Source: David Sacks, COO PayPal, CEO Yammer
Bill Gurley: Venture Capitalist, OpenTable, Zillow, Uber
Twitter: @InfoEcon :: [email protected] :: PlatformEconomics.com
© 2015 Parker, Van Alstyne & Choudary
What Changes :: R&D and Innovation
Platforms Open Themselves to Third Party
Contributions
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© 2015 Parker, Van Alstyne & Choudary
A platform is a system that
can be… adapted to
countless needs and
niches that the platform’s
original developers could
not possibly have
contemplated…”
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Mark Andreessen: Venture Capitalist, Netscape
Founder, Board HP, eBay
© 2015 Parker, Van Alstyne & Choudary
It’s Working when Users do Something You Didn’t Expect
Ford Model T
Flour Mill
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Hay Carrier
Racecar
© 2015 Parker, Van Alstyne & Choudary
52
It’s Working when Users do Something You Didn’t Expect
Mobile
Church
Snowmobile
Sawmill
Goat
Carrier
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© 2015 Parker, Van Alstyne & Choudary
53
Does Openness Work?
Open to developers −
− Open to .com”
The Rise & Ignominius Fall of MySpace – Business Week 2011
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© 2015 Parker, Van Alstyne & Choudary
54
Does Openness Work?
‘‘We tried to create every feature in the world and said,
‘O.K., we can do it, why should we let a third party do it?’ ‘’
says (MySpace cofounder) DeWolfe.
‘’We should have picked 5 to 10 key features that we totally
focused on and let other people innovate on everything
else.’’
The Rise & Ignominius Fall of MySpace – Business Week 2011
Twitter: @InfoEcon :: [email protected] :: PlatformEconomics.com
© 2015 Parker, Van Alstyne & Choudary
55
Platforms Get Enormous Value from 3rd Party Developers
Most firms can only concentrate on
most valuable apps
Profits increase when others add
to platform’s Long Tail
You don’t need to
own this
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© 2015 Parker, Van Alstyne & Choudary
56
Why Platforms Beat Products
 Consider product innovation
alone
Value Added
 Harnessing 3rd party
resources, innovation occurs
at a higher combined rate
 Even if a platform starts
behind, its value overtakes
the product leader
 Shed costs, keep 30% gains!
Time
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© 2015 Parker, Van Alstyne & Choudary
57
What’s Next?
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© 2015 Parker, Van Alstyne & Choudary
City as Platform
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© 2015 Parker, Van Alstyne & Choudary
59
Energy/Smart Grid as Platform
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© 2015 Parker, Van Alstyne & Choudary
60
Education as Platform
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© 2015 Parker, Van Alstyne & Choudary
61
Healthcare as Platform
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© 2015 Parker, Van Alstyne & Choudary
62
Platforms are beating products
The key drivers are communities and network effects
(a.k.a. demand economies of scale)
This changes ownership of supply, prices, financial
indices, innovation, …
Twitter: @InfoEcon :: [email protected] :: PlatformEconomics.com
© 2015 Parker, Van Alstyne & Choudary
© 2015 Parker, Van Alstyne & Choudary
63
If you believe in the power of people connecting,
then embrace platforms.
If you convert your product/service to a platform,
what would it do, what community would it serve?
Twitter: @InfoEcon :: [email protected] :: PlatformEconomics.com
© 2015 Parker, Van Alstyne & Choudary
© 2015 Parker, Van Alstyne & Choudary
64
Initiative on the Digital Economy
THANK YOU
QUESTIONS & DISCUSSION
[email protected]
Twitter: @InfoEcon
Find research HERE. Find blog posts HERE.
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© 2015 Parker, Van Alstyne & Choudary