The Forest Resources Their Economics and Development Raj Kumar • PERPUSTAKAAN NEGARAMALAYSI A • • lIlgaporc OXFO RD UNIVERSITY PRESS Oxford 1986 New York Contents Preface Ackrlowledgements Tables Figures Selected Forest Product Meastms and Metric Equ ivalents I 2 •• VII • IX • XIV • XV I " XVII Forestry and the Malaysian Economy Forestry: Definition and Economic Characteristics The Malaysian Economy: Its Problems and Government Policies The Forest Economy of Malaysia Past Studies on the Economic Aspects of Malaysian Forestry Economic Issues in Malaysian Forestry 16 The Forest Resource Base Forest Area and In ventory The Characteristics of the Main Commercial Species Growth Rates of Hardwood Trees in Malaysia 19 19 23 27 1 1 3 9 14 PERPUSTAKAAN NEGARAMALAYSI A33 3 Malaysia and the World Hardwood Trade World Forest Resources and Trends Developments in the Character of the World Hardwood Trade Price Behaviour of Malaysian Wood Products 52 4 The Historical Background Key Features in Malaysian Forest History The Development of Forestry in Peninsular Malaysia The Development of Forestry in Sara wak The Development of Forestry in Sa bah Main Developments Since the Formation of Malaysia (1963) 64 64 65 70 71 73 5 Log Disposal Wood Dispo al Policy The Economic Implications of the Log Concession Policy 82 82 84 30 30 •• XII CONTENTS • 6 The Wood-based Industries A Broad Overview of Wood-based Industries The Logging Industry The Saw milling Industry The Plywood and Veneer Industry Other Wood-based Industries 88 88 90 100 I05 110 • 7 An Econometric Analysis of the Supply and Demand of Malaysian and Regional Wood Products Methodology Objectives of a Supply and Demand Study Survey of Supply and Demand Models Used in Forestry: The World Survey of Supply and Demand Models Used in Forestry: Malaysia A Proposed Econometric Model for Malaysian W ood Products Data Used in Computation of Models Interpretation of the Results Conclusions 8 Employment Implications in Forestry The General Issue of Employment in Malaysia Employment in Malaysian Forestry Some Methods of Measuring the Relationship between Employment and Output Model to Estimate Employment Elasticities and Speeds of Labour Adjustment Data and Estimation Problems Analysis of the Results Export and Home Demand Elasticities of Employment Conclusions of Study and Further Suggestions Degree of Employment Stability in Forestry and Agriculture Factor Intensity Comparisons among Forest-based and Agrobased Industries 114 114 I I 5 116 12 5 126 135 138 148 152 152 154 157 PERPUSTAKAAN NEGARAMALAYSI A 9 Fiscal Issues in Malaysian Forestry Forest Taxation and Efficient Exploitation A Case for Special Tax Treatment for Forestry? Timber Appraisal and Royalties An Assessment of Royalty Rates in Malaysia Guide-lines for a Royalty Review Other Fiscal Dues Further Suggestions 161 161 163 167 170 170 173 183 r83 18 4 185 188 193 193 194 ••• CO NTENTS 10 X111 Conclusions and Directions for Future Efforts 196 Discussion on Main Findings Future Direction of Forest Policy and Administration in Malaysia 196 Appendices 205 A Forest Policies of Peninsular Malaysia, Sarawak and Sabah B Methodology, Data and Computational Procedure C Model to Estimate Employment Elasticities and Speeds of Labour Adjustment D Instability Measurement of Selected Malaysian Commodities and Other Macro Variables E Investment Incentives F Royalty Rates for Sarawak G Main Results of Employment Demand Functions H Some of the Data Used in the Estimations in Chapter 7 205 Bibliography Index 199 214 220 226 229 235 238 241 246 261 PERPUSTAKAAN NEGARAMALAYSI A • I Forestry and the Malaysian Economy Forestry: Definition and Economic Characteristics FORE TS are one of the world's natural resources, which include all those that originate from biological, chemical or geological processes. Physically speaking, exhaustible resources are those not capable of being replenished, such as petroleum and tin, while renewable (or replenishable) resources, such as trees, fish, other forms of wildlife, and solar energy, can be reproduced or replaced. The consumption patterns of renewable resources, such as forest, are }low in character, while those of exhaustible resources are like stock, whose inventory diminishes with use. However, economically speaking, a renewable resource can sometimes take on the character of stock. For instance, trees that are felled and not replanted, with the land being put to other lIses, could in some ways be regarded as a stock resource. Another example is the over-exploitation of certain species of animal, making them extinct. Our interest is in forestry which can be broadly defined as the art and science of managing forests. Management covers all those activities related to planning, production, distribution and replenishment offorest products, principally wood. The scientific aspect of foresty is physicobiological in character, covering such areas as classification of species, mensuration, silviculture and all those factors that influence the growth and maintenance of trees. The physico-biologist is concerned with ecological aspects like the relationship of the forests to their surroundings- the effect on climate, soil, waterflow, plants and animals. His focus is on the technical aspects of the forest science which enhance knowledge about the natural attributes of forests. The economist's interest is in the art of managing forests, i.e., the optimal allocation of scarce resources (in this case, forest land), over both space and time, to maximize the total benefit to society. At one level he deals with allocating resources like land, labour and capital to forestry visa-vis alternative uses like agriculture. At the next level is the allocation PERPUSTAKAAN NEGARAMALAYSI A 2 THE FORE T RESOURCES OF MALAY SIA process within forestry, like deciding whether to produce only sawlogs, or extend to downstream industries like sawmilling and wood panelling. At the third level, the economist is involved in the choice of techniques for a particular activity like logging or sawmilling. Should it be labour intensive or capital intensive? Here he would also be interested in the timing of the harvest, in other words, when to market. In other areas the economist will be more concerned with cost, price and welfare implications than with purely technical aspects. Nevertheless, biological factors like the yield and growth rate of trees would influence the econom ic calculus; so would environmental effects. More specifically, the interest is in economic efficiency, given the aim to maximize the value of benefits produced by the given stock of forest resources to the optim um . T here are certain economic characteristics of forestry that are in some respects sui gel1eris in nature, as follows: I. The tree is simultaneously both the capital plant and the finished prod uct. This has special implications in forest accounting and planning of investment, particularly where both private and public sectors are involved. 2 . The gestation period of forestry is longer than that of other renewable production processes, and marked by a higher degree of uncertainty than in extractive and manufacturing industries. Tropical forests can take from 20 to 200 years to mature; this means that the forest owner cannot expect to have a regular flow of income from the same wood-lot. Within certain limits, the production period is elastic in the sen e that there is no clearly defined age of maturity or fixed date of marketing, unlike other renewable resources like wheat. 3. Tropical wood is something very different from a standard product. It may be difficult to find two logs, particularly from tropical species, exactly similar as in the case of standardized industrial products. This has repercussions in terms of techniques of production and grading, both of which affect the cost and price of the product. 4. The elasticity of substitution, firstly among wood products and secondly with other non-wood products, is high. Sawn wood, plywood the fibreboard co mpete with one another and are almost interchangeable despite differences in production processes, and most of them face competition from steel , plastics, aluminium and fibreglass. 5· The multiple-use character offorest lands gives rise to problems in defining underlying production functions and of allocating the area for their different uses. Besides producing commercial wood, other uses of forests include recreation, wildlife preservation, watershed protection, climate amelioration and overall environmental preservation. A large • PERPUSTAKAAN NEGARAMALAYSI A FORESTR Y AND THE MALA Y IAN ECONOMY 3 proportion of these benefits are non-marketed, making quantitative analysis of cost and benefits an onerous task. The 'joint supply' nature of forestry complicates economic analysis. Taken singly, none of these characteristics can be particularly special but the fact that they occur together to a much greater degree than in other industries makes forestry complex in terms of economic analysis. The scope of forest economics is therefore wide. Here, however, the broad objective is to focus attention on some selected major issues in Malaysian forestry, and evaluate their economic implications. Forests and forest industries arc components of the general economy, influencing and influenced by other sectors. They have an important role to play in the economic development of Malaysia, like the other major primary commodities such as rubber, palm-oil, tin and petroleum. To appreciate this role, it would be useful to see Malaysia in the setting of its economic performance, problems and government strategies . I • • If • « d I / The Malaysian Economy: Its Problems and Government Policies Malaysia, lying in the tropical zone of South-East Asia, is generally divided into two parts: Peninsular Malaysia (the former Federation of Malaya), and the north Borneo states ofSarawak and Sabah (formerly the British colonies of Sarawak and British North Borneo). Peninsular Malaysia and Sabah and Sarawak are separated by between 800 and 1 500 km of the South China Sea. The Federation of Malaya (Peninsular Malaysia) forged a union with Sarawak, Sabah and Singapore in 1963 under a federal system of government. Although the different units were run separately prior to 1963, all share a common British colonial heritage. The Federation of Malaya itself became independent in 1957, while Singapore gained its independence in 1965 when it left Malaysia after friction with the federal government in Kuala Lumpur; Sabah and Sarawak achieved their independence from colonial rule within the context of Malaysia. The various stages in the political formation of present-day Malaysia have created a country marked by a heterogeneity of culture and race, economic and social development, and political maturity, that have given rise to problems that are unique compared with other less developed countries in Asia. From an economic perspective, Malaysia can be classified as an open economy, with an Export/Gross National Product proportion that has varied between 35 and 60 per cent since 1960; in 1982 this was estimated to be about 53 per cent (Table 1. I). The export mix (Table 1.2) comprises mainly primary commodities, with manufactured goods, mostly pro- PERPUSTAKAAN NEGARAMALAYSI A 6,019 8,776 12,155 21,606 50,018 5 8 ,797 Year 1960 196 5 1970 1975 1980 19 8 2 60·4 43·1 4 2 .5 47. I 59·7 53·0 (%) Share of Exports in GNP 954 1,169 1,822 3,673 4,079 820 Per Capita Income (MS) 92·3 94·7 101.9 144. 0 179·5 195. 0 1967: 100 95 70 n.a. II4 100 68 1970: 100 Terms of Trade (Peninsu lar Malaysia) 3·06 3·06 3.08 2·58 2.20 2.3 2 Exchange Rate (MSto USSl ) Sources: Department of Statistics, Peninsular Malaysia, Annual Bulletin oj Statistics, Peninsular Malaysia, 11)68-'77, various issues; Ministry of Finance, Malaysia, Economic Report. 1974- 84. various issues; Fourth Malaysia Plan, 1981- 1985. GNP at Market Prices (MS million) Retail Price Index (Peninsular Malaysia) TABLE 1.1 Malaysia: Main EcononUc Indicators, 1960-1982 PERPUSTAKAAN NEGARAMALAYSI A ~ FORESTR Y AND THE MALAY SIAN EC ONOMY 5 primary products, making up between [0 and 20 per cent of the total. The import basket comprises predominantly consumer goods and capital items. Malaysia can be described as being in the process of evolving from a British colonial economic structure (commonly described as the classical export system), dominated by a thin specialization in a few primary commodities, particularly rubber and tin, to one of an industrialized country, with manufacturing and domestic processing of raw materials playing an important role. Malaysia's economic growth is highly dependent on world conditions, while on the supply side it is very sensitive to the availability of human and capital resources to exploit and process its raw materials. Given the upswings and downswings of the world business cycle, Malaysia is potentially susceptible to a degree of economic instability that is greater than countries which are less open and more balanced structurally. This is accentuated by two other factors, a high degree of market concentration of its exports, and the nature of the elasticity of demand and supply of primary commodities. The United States, Western Europe (principally the European Economic Community (EEC)), and Japan have absorbed 60 per cent of all its exports, with Singapore taking another 15 to 20 per cent, which eventually ends up in the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries which include all industrialized· Western countries, Japan, Australia and New Zealand. For its major imports such as machinery and other manufactured goods, but not including oil which comes from the Middle East, it is also dependent on these markets. The demand for Malaysia's primary commodities is price and income elastic, while the supply is price inelastic, at least in the short run. The elasticity of substitution of its major commodities, rubber, palm-oil, and timber, is high. Export proceeds have therefore exhibited a fluctuating pattern, and one can expect this instability to be transmitted to the rest of the econom y, although some studies have not found evidence to support this. I Nevertheless, specialization in a few commodities has proved a Robertsonian 'engine of growth', giving the country a standard ofliving which is among the highest in Asia. Except for the pOSH 973 period, the growth has taken place under relative internal price stability. This is despite the fact that generally its terms of trade have been falling since 1965, a common feature of most less developed countries (Table I. I). Till 197 ,Malaysia's balance-of-payments position had been healthy, showing con istent but varying surpluses. This to some extent promoted a stable currency, a rare feature in commodity-dependent less developed economie . However, in 1979, 1981 and 1982, the accounts showed an PERPUSTAKAAN NEGARAMALAYSI A 6 THE FOREST RESOURCES OF MALAYSIA overall deficit, partly due to recessionary conditions affecting the value of exportS, and partly due to an increase in external debt servicing. The excessive buildup of the external public debt, rising by 42 per cent between 1982 and 1983 to S17.8 billion and representing 22 per cent of the Federal Government revenue and about 5 per cent of the exports of goods and services, has given rise to some concern in various circles that if the trend continues, the country might expetience the Mexico-Brazil debt dilemma. The 1983 /4 budget has made a start to check this by introducing restraints on public expenditure by government and public-sector agencies. The external loan/external equity capital nUx will also require an assessment if progress is to be made in avoiding the debt trap. Despite the impressive economic record, this trade-biased economy has produced lopsided growth characterized by a dualistic structure, with a slow-growing subsistence sector coexisting with the dynamic export sector. As a result, there are sharp regional disparities and income inequalities that represent a threat to civil order and stability in the country. 2 In comparison with other similar less developed economies, the 'economic dualism' is not especially marked, but it assumes a more sensitive dimension since there is a strong correlation of the dualism with racial differences. As a result of cultural and social factors, the Malays and other indigenous groups (collectively referred to as bumiputera) were not in the past attracted to the commercial se.ctor. They have therefore been predominantly confined to low productivity occupations in the primary subsistence sector. The energetic and ambitious immigrant population, especially the Chinese, are concentrated in the export and commercial sectors. A small segment of the bumiputera in recent years have entrenched themselves in the commercial sector arising out of a deliberate policy of promoting bumiputera entrepreneurship. Recent studies on income distribution suggest that this has exacerbated the income inequalities within the Malay group. In terms of wealth distribution, foreign.ers still own the major share capital in limited companies, although their share is falling-about 48 per cent in 1980 compared to 63 per cent in 1970. The bumiputera and nonbumiputera shares in 1980 were 12 per cent and 40 per cent respectively. The Malaysian government has adhered to a philosophy of free enterprise, but the state intervenes where it considers it necessary in order to alleviate economic and social problems. The government has used planning as a means of implementing its development programmes. So far, there have been six Five-Year Plans, the first two solely for Peninsular Malaysia. The Plans formally lay down the basic objectives of the government, give reviews and forecasts of the development programmes and the financial allocation to the major sectors. The estimates PERPUSTAKAAN NEGARAMALAYSI A
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