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Delaware River Basin
Water Supply and the 1954 U.S.
Supreme Court Decree
Fred Sickels, Director
Division of Water Supply & Geoscience
NJ-AWWA
March 2015
Presentation
1) Delaware River Basin
2) Decree and Subsequent Agreements
3) NJDEP Actions
4) Next Steps/Conclusions
Delaware River Basin
Basic Information
• Longest U.S. un-dammed river east of
Mississippi
• Extends 330 miles from Hancock NY
to mouth of Delaware Bay
• Basins includes an area of 13,539 mi2
• 15 million people depend on basin
for water supply, agricultural and
industrial use
• Certain reaches in National Wild &
Scenic Rivers System
• Economic benefits Delaware River
Port Complex generates
approximately $19 billion in
economic activity annually
Delaware Basin
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NYC Croton System
- 10 reservoirs, 77BG
- built ~1850 to 1905
NYC Catskill System
- 2 reservoirs, 141 BG
- built ~1907 to 1927
NYC Delaware System
- Rondout Reservoir, 50 BG
- built 1928 to 1937
plus West Branch/Boyds Corner (in Croton WS)
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Trigger for 1931 Decree
NYC Delaware System
- Cannonsville, Neversink
and Pepacton Reservoirs,
175BG
- built 1947 to 1964
Trigger for 1954 Decree
Non-NYC Delaware Basin
- built ~1925 to 1980
Decree → FFMP Timeline
And you may ask yourself- Well… How did we get here?
Conditions Leading Up To
1954 Decree
• NYC’s increasing demands
• NYC’s expansion in to the Delaware Basin
• History of litigation between states
• Existing and expected NJ and PA Delaware
Basin water demand
1954 Decree
• Did not include:
– Conservation/minimum releases
– Flood mitigation procedures
• Did not envision reductions in demand
– water conservation
– changes in demand patterns
• Requires unanimous consent from all parties
to modify
Core Equity Principles of the Decree
1. Out of Basin Diversion Limits
– NYC at 800 mgd and NJ at 100 mgd
2. Instream flow requirement
– NYC maintains 1,750 cfs
in Delaware River
at Montague NJ
3. Excess Release Quantity
All three required to maintain
equity between Parties
What is the Good Faith Agreement?
• Set of interrelated management steps from the Decree
Parties to the DRBC
• Contained 14 Recommendations and signed by Decree
Parties
• Established current water supply management paradigm
for the Delaware basin only
• Modified over time, but its core water supply provisions
remain unchanged since 1983
Decree
• DRBC via GFA, Water Code and Dockets
increasingly “tied” to Decree Parties
DRBC
DRBC
Flexible Flow Management Program
• Essentially the same water supply provisions as GFA
– Initial agreement ran from 2007 to 2011
– 4 one-year FFMPs: 2012 to 2014
• 2014 to 2015 FFMP:
– Temporary, not allocable 100, 100, 100, and 85 mgd NJ
diversion
– CSSO discharge mitigation (90% seasonal storage
objective)
– Enhanced fisheries releases (FBAW)
– Use of NYC’s OASIS-OST model
– Fixed 2002 demand and 1,290 SY to calculate IERQ
Implications of GFA/FFMP Cutbacks
• NYC storage reservoirs benefits:
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Reduced flow target = less releases (up to 420 mgd)
Reduced diversions (up to 280 mgd)
Both reductions keep more water in reservoirs
The ability to overdraft coupled with reduced demand and
lack of link with Hudson Basin (no ERQ), gives NYC an
incentive to overdraft the Delaware Basin and trigger
drought cutbacks, then utilize Hudson basin sources and
preserve Delaware storage for later use, if needed
• NJ’s run-of-river diversion penalties:
– Less contractible/allocable water (up to 35 mgd)
Why Develop a Model?
• It’s been 40+ years since the NYC System safe yield was reevaluated.
• It’s been 30+ years since the flow management program was established.
• The conditions and assumptions under which those negotiations were
held have fundamentally changed.
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NYC demand has declined to 1950s levels
modeling has improved
ecologic needs have arisen
Inequities of agreement identified
• The opportunity and need exists to re-evaluate the outdated operating
paradigm.
• Its time to “[Start] Making Sense” with how we manage water in the basin.
• The core principles of the 1954 Decree, updated for current conditions,
can provide the basis for a new agreement.
• Current model available to all Decree Parties is inadequate: limited to
Delaware Basin only
• Equity, Equity, Equity!
ERQ and Safe Yield
• Excess Release Quantity is core equity principle of 1954
Supreme Court Decree
• Use of ERQ has evolved over time, but always intended
for lower basin protection
• ERQ = 83% of difference between NYC consumption and
“continuous safe yield… of all its sources”
• “all its sources” includes the Delaware System, Catskill
System, and Croton System
• Decree recognized importance of quantifying supplies
(i.e. safe yield) outside the basin to properly manage
within the basin
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Calculation of the ERQ
• 1954 Decree
– 83% of the difference between the 1,665 mgd safe yield
and anticipated consumption plus 7.25 BG,
– Released over seasonal period and capped at 70BG
• GFA
– 83% of difference between 1,665 and historic peak
consumption (1980) of 591.582 mgd (plus 7 ¼ BG)= 7.4 BG
– Not available during drought
• FFMP
– 83% of difference between 1,290 mgd safe yield and peak
demand between 2002 and 2006
– Not available during drought
NJ’s RiverWare Model
• River and reservoir modeling software developed by
University of Colorado (CADSWES) in 1990s
• Simulates daily reservoir storages, flows, and diversions
• Covers 1928 through 2006 time period
• Conjunctively models the Delaware River Basin reservoirs, as
well as the NYC Delaware, Catskill, and Croton Systems
• Includes travel-time adjusted river flows and location of the
salt-vernier
• Contains multiple rule sets to simulate both Decree and FFMP
operating plans, as well as NYS Regulations
NJ’s RiverWare Model
• Developed using publically available data
– DRBC’s Delaware Basin OASIS-PST hydrologic model
– Hudson Basin data from dam safety, NYC DEP, NYS
DEC, ACOE, and USGS reports obtained from libraries,
state archives and internet
• Vetted by
– NJDEP internal review May 2014
– CADSWES review in August 2014
– Calibration to DRBC’s OASIS-PST model
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NJ’s RiverWare Model Contains
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26 reservoir objects
64 stream reach objects
26 stream confluence objects
14 diversion objects
34 data objects
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Drought curves
Minimum releases and flow targets
Reservoir data
Summary statistics
Local inflows, snowpack, and initial conditions
• Multiple Rule Sets to simulate Decree and
FFMP operations
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RiverWare Model Results
• Good calibration to DRBC Delaware Basin-only OASIS model
• NYC safe yield at least 1,345 mgd; not the 1,290 advocated by NYC
and used in the FFMP
– NJ’s estimate consistent with other NYC DEP reports
• Larger safe yield means more water is available
– Equity principles of 1954 Decree require that much of that water be
used for benefit of lower Delaware Basin states
– Excess release quantity (ERQ) is ~45 BG; not 10 BG advocated by NYC
• Model capable of simulating multiple alternatives to determine
best possible and most equitable flow management agreement
• Model puts NJ (PA and DE) in much more informed position to
negotiate changes to FFMP
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NJDEP Rollout
• Transparent evaluation of existing resources and
current operating plan to determine how much water
is available
– RiverWare is the tool to conduct that analysis
– Science consistent with NJ’s position
• Presentation of RiverWare model and results
– Meet with Decree Counterparts
– Presentation to Delaware Basin stakeholders
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Fishery and flood mitigation advocates active in revising FFMP
DRBC’s RFAC meeting presentation
NJDEP’s Water Supply Advisory Council presentation
Delaware River Basin Congressional Task Force
– Address all stakeholders comments at one time
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Components of Next Agreement
Include changes in FFMP that starts on June 1, 2015
• Recognition that NYC safe yield is greater than previously agreed to
– ERQ larger and available during drought
• 20 mgd partial restoration of NJ’s D&R Canal diversion
– contractable/allocable per NJ Regs
– DRBC and NJ modeling shows increase is di minimis
• Enhanced coldwater fisheries releases and thermal protection bank via
ERQ; benefits NYS and PA
• Enhanced flood mitigation procedures via CSSO curves; benefits NYS, PA
and to a lesser degree NJ
• Ensure NYC’s water supply is adequate and maintain its flexible use within
reasonable limits
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Conclusions
• NJ’s recent work has identified and quantified many
problems with the current FFMP
• NJ’s RiverWare model for the first times allows a
transparent analysis of water availability and a
complete/thorough analysis of options
• Significant pressure from basin stakeholders to institute
change exists; including Congress, local governments, NGOs
• NJ is in a very good position to influence changes to the
FFMP
• Support of NJ Water Systems is helpful
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Division of Water Supply
Water Supply Permitting Element
609-292-7219, [email protected]