1. No category

NRN-LCEE launch, 26th March 2015, Cardiff – Martin Skov, Bangor Univ.
RESILCOAST
Integrating resilience into coastal planning
Ecosystem services
Flood protection
http://www.cam.ac.uk
Accreting
bank
Eroding
bank
Regime shift and resilience
Resilience – what is it?
Economic resilience
• Ability to resist or to recover from economic down-turn
– Maintain jobs; quickly recover to previous employment
Medical resilience
• Ability to recover from or adjust easily to misfortune or
change
Mindfulness and resilience
Resilience of ecosystems
Capacity of system to maintain function, structure and
feedbacks in the face of change or disturbance
1. Resistance
2. Recovery
3. Adaptation
A ‘regime’ (or ‘ecosystem state’)
• A characteristic structure and
function of a system
Ecological regime shifts
Large, sometimes abrupt, long-lived changes in the structure
and function of a system
• Dramatic, costly, worrying
• Difficult to predict
 A major research gap
Tipping point
Conditions
RESILCOAST focus - Coastal resilience
The Global coast
• 50% of world’s population
• 75% of cities (UNEP)
Porthcawl Christmas swim
Welsh coast
• 60% of population
• >92,000 jobs
• Recreational importance to 75% of people
• £700 mill pa in tourism revenue
References: UNEP, Wales Tourism Alliance, WWF (2012)
Global change – acutely felt on the coast
• Emerging impacts of climate change, sea-level rise, flood risk
– 357,000 Welsh properties at risk of flooding
– 23% of Welsh coastline already eroding
• Global migration to coast → increased pressure on resources
RESILCOAST will deliver research to
facilitate coastal resilience
Shoreline management planning (SMP)
Framework for managing coastal flood and erosion risk
• SMPs consider adaptations to flooding risks and sea-level rise
– Investing in habitat creation where predictions indicate loss will occur
– Role of natural ecosystems in coastal protection
• Has 4 options for a stretch of coast
–
–
–
–
No active intervention
Hold the (existing defence) line
Managed realignment – allow shoreline to move
Advance the line – New defences are built on to seaward side
Implications of coastal regime shifts and resilience
 Costly if get spatial predictions wrong
Salt marshes
Salt marshes – key to coastal ecosystem services
Cost savings on coastal protection
Flood protection
http://www.cam.ac.uk
Engineered
protection
Environment Agency
brochure
Salt marshes undergo regime shifts
• Small-scale die-back scales up to cause disappearance of
whole marshes
- causes are often unknown
 A problem to management → unpredictable eco-services,
including natural coastal protection
Small-scale (patch)
Large-scale (marsh
or estuary)
Evidence of resilience
Pioneering,
accreting marsh
Eroding marsh cliff
Re-colonisation in front of
eroded cliff
Stepped marsh – evidence of past
erosion and recovery
Resilience at estuarine scale?
Is area loss of one marsh compensated by expansion
in another marsh → no net change at estuarine scale?
Porthmadog
GIS map
Portmeirion
3
1
2
4
5
6
Six marshes
Glaslyn Estuary
The 6 project tasks
Task 1 Patterns and
contextual drivers of
state shifts
Task 4-5
End-users and
eco-service
values
Task 3 Modelling
and mapping
Experiments
Photo & data
archives
LARGE SCALE
Task 2 Biological
resilience and
feedback mechanisms
SMALL SCALE
Predictions
Task 6
Policy
implications
Study region
• Tasks 1-3: all UK
– Possibly the Netherlands
Glaslyn/
Dwyryd
• Task 4-6: Three estuaries of the
Sarnau SAC in Cardigan Bay
– Glaslyn / Dwyryd
– Mawddach
– Dyfi
This region because:
• Known flooding risk
• Marshes are changing
Mawddach
Dyfi
Task 1 – patterns and drivers of regime shifts
Objectives
1. Describe patterns of change in marsh area/distribution
– For UK estuaries with contrasting tendencies to erode
– Using aerial photography and Lidar images
1947 of upper part of Glaslyn
GIS map of marsh extent, Glaslyn
Task 1 – patterns and drivers of regime shifts
2. Establish main large-scale drivers of change
– Identify environmental contexts most at risk
3. Develop tools for predicting regime shifts (critical slowing down)
Predictions from temporal changes
to sizes and distributions of marsh
patches at seaward end of marsh
Predictions of marsh area change
by shifts in estuarine main channel
Bio-physical feedback mechanisms
• Plant colonisation moderates the path and force of water
→ gives further opportunity for marsh expansion
→ moderating forces further
→ → expansion up until a threshold condition
 Small-scale processes relevant to large scale patterns
Task 2 – resilience mechanisms and thresholds
Develop understanding how plants mediate resilience
Field observations, cultured species mixes
Hydrological flume
Marsh cores
eroded in flume
Variance in erosion explained (%)
• Are tipping points in erosion controlled by species mix,
biodiversity, growing conditions (N, salinity, grazing pressure)
and/or extreme events (draught, storms)?
Effects and tipping points
Task 3 – predictive modelling: thresholds, patterns
• Model change in marsh landscape in response to
environmental conditions, perturbation and plant composition
1. 4-D modelling (space, time) the effects of sea-level rise, grazing,
sediment character/supply, plant diversity and growth
2. GIS-based model predictions for Sarnau region
–
Using existing SLAMM model (Sea-level Affecting Marshes Model)
Modelling will consider
• Sea-level rise (20, 50, 100 yrs)
• Task 1-2 results/parameters
• Model 1 outputs
Example SLAMM output
Task 4-5 – Values and distributions of eco-services
Task 4 – Map stakeholders and interests across region
» Establish focal group for consultation in subsequent tasks
Task 5 – Value eco-services by resilience scenarios
1. Hind-casting value, based on historical changes in marshes
– Values from: literature, focal group consultations and tools from
the CBESS project (Skov, NRW)
2. Predict changes in ES values with scenarios (SMP2, 50 yr epoch)
Estimates of value per area
Historical change in marsh cover
Maps of ecosystem service values
Task 6 – implications to SMP
• Evaluate implications of change in service values
given SMP planning and policy
– Structured workshops → evaluate implications to policy
• E.g., predicted habitat loss could require Coastal Habitat
Management Plans (CHAMPS)*
• Are SMP policies and actions suitable for Sarnau SAC?
– Identify which planning regimes (local, regional, national)
will be influenced by change in ES
* Advices strategic flood planning how to
avoid damage to protected area
The RESILCOAST team
PhD
Fellow
Impact through
• Cutting-edge research outputs
• Research uptake by environmental
decision makers and management
• Continuation beyond NRN-LCEE:
• Additional funding & partnerships
• Training/boosting careers of emerging
and established academics
• Impact on the general public
PhD
Fellow