Collapse of the Bangsamoro
Peace Accords – what it will
mean for ASEAN’s CounterTerrorism Efforts?
Bilveer Singh, PhD
Senior Adjunct Fellow, Centre of Excellence for National Security,
S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Nanyang
Technological University
Edmundo Garcia
“There are relatively few studies on conflict resolution in the
Third World. In the Philippines, the roots of the present
armed conflict can be traced to the politics of exclusion and
the practice of economic exploitation that date back to the
colonial period. In the aftermath of independence,
successive governments failed to respond to the needs of the
majority who remained poor and landless while power was
effectively held by the privileged few”.
Edmundo Garcia, “Internal Armed Conflict in the Philippines and the Quest for Peace in
the Period of Democratic Transition”, Asian Studies, 1992.
“peace is everybody’s business”.
The Situation in Southern Philippines
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A long drawn conflict; a human tragedy of colossal proportion
Cycle of conflict could not be broken; the hegemony of peace
failed in the face of many who preferred war which brought
untold sufferings and costs the Government and People great
loss of lives, poor state of economic development, tense social
relations, lawlessness and thriving of criminal elements and an
bad image for the country as a whole
In this context, the peace breakthrough was a great
achievement; not the first time, had a peace deal in the past with
the MNLF but eventually broke down; this time with the MILF;
great hopes but threatened by the Mamasampano Incident.
There is still much hope that the Peace Accords can be salvage to
harvest political, economic, social-cultural and security-strategic
gains.
The Strategic Implications for the
Mamasapano Incident (I)
1. OPLAN EXODUS, took place on 25 January 2015 in Mamasapano,
Maguindanao to arrest high ranking terrorists such as Zulkfli Abdhir
alias Marwan and Abdul Basit Usman.
2. EXODUS led to the death of 44 members of SAF, 18 from MILF and 5
from the BIFF, and 4 civilians. The clash has been described as the
biggest loss of the elite forces in recent history.
3. The Mamasapano incident caused the Philippines Congress to
suspend indefinitely the passage of the Bangsamoro Basic Law.
4. The incident has dented President Aquino’s political fortunes.
Outwardly, if a vote for the peace deal is perceived as a vote against
the police officers who died and in support of the MILF then it will be
very difficult for lawmakers to back the measure. The incident comes
just before the beginning of the national election season, with
senators and members of congress sensitive to public opinion.
The Strategic Implications for the
Mamasapano Incident (II)
5. What is clear is that the incident has hurt the peace process but this
should not derail it due to the wider strategic implications for the
Philippines and ASEAN. A good reminder is : “Just look at the cost of war.
If you give up on the peace process, then expect more ‘Mamasapanos’.
You will not be able to build schools or hospitals. Children will grow up
seeing the dominance of gun power. That will be their model.”
6. The Mamasapano Incident is a tragedy but it must be understood
against the backdrop of historical distrust, complex armed and tribal
groups operating in the region and unfortunately, mistakes made by the
security forces.
Mindanao and Terrorism
1.
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Internal Instability and Bloodshed
Long drawn low intensity insurgency for many decades with no clear winners but
massive deficits:
i. general instability and lawlessness
ii. Great cost to government & society
iii. Religious fractures and bloodshed
2. Regional Dimension
Mindanao‘s instability spillsover to Malaysia and Indonesia
i. Refugees
ii. Lawlessness and Criminalities e.g. kidnapping for ransom by
Abu Sayyaf in Sabah
iii. Smuggling: guns, drugs, people, etc.
Mindanao and Terrorism
3. International Dimension
-Internationalization of Mindanao conflict, e.g.
involvement of OIC and Libya
-Al Qaeda’s involvement in Mindanao and its
affiliate, Jemaah Islamiyyah
i. training grounds
ii. sanctuaries
iii. domestic violence
iv. regional violence
The Bangsamoro Peace Accords – what it means for
ASEAN from the counter-terrorism perspective?
1. A chance to end the key conflict once and forever
2. Sure, some other groups may persist with their armed
struggle but the peace accords would terminate the
key conflict
3. The Aceh Model showed that a genuine peace
between the Government and an armed group can
bring untold benefits: end the major local insurgency;
bring peace to the entire province; start the process of
reconciliation and economic development in the
province through power sharing; compel the other
armed groups to fall in line; end target of opportunity
and presence of external terrorist groups in
Mindanao.
If the Bangsamoro Peace Accords Collapses –
what are some of the consequences?
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REIGNITE A TRAGEDY OF A MASSIVE PROPORTION:
i.
MILF as the largest and most powerful armed group would likely resume its armed struggle
and reignite the cycle of violence in Mindanao;
It will compel the MILF to become even more militant and extremist, with the extremists
within the MILF capturing power and the moderates who opted for negotiations with the
government being discredited;
It will signal to the other armed groups that it is hopeless to negotiate and work the
Government, thereby worsening the security situation in Mindanao; give credence to
extremist groups of what will happen if one deals with the government;
The regional and international extremist and terrorist groups such as Al Qaeda and the
Islamic State would find the Mindanao situation ripe for penetration, with the international
terrorists entering Mindanao in a bigger way and possibly, Mindanao becoming part of the
Islamic State’s Caliphate and providing training grounds and recruits which the Islamic State
is looking for. A destabilized Mindanao will continue to provide local and international
terrorists with recruits and training grounds. Will IS’s preference for Poso in Indonesia as a
key training ground in ASEAN shift to Mindanao? Is Mindanao the next Afghanistan?
ii.
iii.
iv.
If the Bangsamoro Peace Accords Collapses – what
are some of the consequences?
v. Signal the failure of ASEAN’s peace-making and building
model and initiative. If successful, it can be a showcase of
how ASEAN can assist and facilitate in conflict resolution.
vi. A conflict-based Mindanao is a lose-lose situation for all:
- Government : drain on finances, massive deployment of
soldiers and police personnel in the province, opportunity
cost for economic development and a highly polarized
territory based on religion
- People: continuous suffering, loss of lives and property,
insecurity and poor all-round development in a region that
has massive potential
- Regional: potential instability
Ending Protracted Conflicts
1.
2.
3.
Next to impossible to end by war; too costly
Always protracted debates about the advisability of signing a peace deal due to
historical bad blood between the pro and con groups – not surprising
Key – need for genuine peace which all can benefit from in the short to medium
to long term
4. Three Key Factors:
a. A protracted tragedy can end as is evident from the Bangsamoro Peace Accords
b. The gains of success for the peace accords are many.
c. The losses of failure are simply too great and not worth the while
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The Bangsamoro Peace Accords are beneficial for the People of Mindanao, for
the Philippines Government and Public; and for ASEAN’s peace and security.
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President Benigno Aquino III
We have already come such a long way in our quest to realize the peace that we have long
desired for Muslim Mindanao. All sides exhibited great trust to reach this point. The
incident in Mampasano has already given rise to those who want to take advantage of this
tragedy to undermine that trust; they wish to derail the peace process. There are even
some already calling for a halt to the passage of the Bangsamoro Basic Law in the House of
Representatives and the Senate.
This should not happen. The success of the entire peace process is contingent on this law. If
this law is kept from being passed at the soonest possible time, the peace process will be
derailed; the status quo will remain. If that happens, we cannot hope for anything but the
same results: Citizens who take to the mountains after losing hope; individuals kept from
gaining justice who instead choose to exact violence on their fellowmen. It would be as if
we helped Marwan and Usman to reach their goals. Do we want to return to the point
when communities are ready, at a moment’s notice, to flee to evacuation centers, because
of the threat of an encounter? If this were to happen, who would benefit? If the peace
process were derailed, how many more graves would we have to dig? How many more
children will idolize Marwan; how many will want to grow up to be Usman; how many
engineers will choose to build bombs rather than buildings?
Let us also remember: The members of the SAF lost their lives while fulfilling their duty to
maintain the peace. If the peace process fails, if we return to the status quo, or if the
violence were to worsen, is this not the exact opposite of the cause to which they gave
their lives?