Savills Research New South Wales Spotlight Sydney Industrial April 2015 Highlights Approximately 757,474 square metres of industrial accommodation was reported leased in Sydney in the 12 months to March 2015 Approximately $2.3 billion of industrial property transactions were recorded in the 12 months to March 2015 Indicative yields for prime and secondary industrial stock have tightened in the 12 months to March 2015 Industrial land values grew over the last 12 months, with signs of further growth in Western Sydney Prime rents in the Sydney industrial market remained stable over the last 12 months The investment market remains extremely strong as the weight of capital from local and overseas investors creates a seller’s market. Savills Research | Sydney Industrial April 2015 Savills New South Wales Team Research Managing Director Divisional Director Simon Hemphill +61 (0) 2 8215 8892 Managing Director Simon Fenn +61 (0) 2 8215 8830 [email protected] [email protected] Research Industrial Sales & Leasing Analyst Houssam Yakzan +61 (0) 2 8215 8980 Divisional Director Darren Curry +61 (0) 2 9761 1304 [email protected] [email protected] Industrial Sales & Leasing Divisional Director Greg Cohen +61 (0) 2 8215 8836 Divisional Director Peter Steinhour +61 (0) 2 9761 1310 [email protected] [email protected] Divisional Director Ray Trimboli +61 (0) 2 9761 1308 Associate Director Adam Micola +61 (0) 2 9761 1313 [email protected] [email protected] Valuation & Consultancy Senior Executive Moshe Greengarten +61 (0) 2 9761 1302 Divisional Director Russell Nicolson +61 (0) 2 8215 8987 [email protected] [email protected] Corporate Real Estate Project Management Divisional Director John Mackenzie +61 (0) 2 8215 8982 General Manager David Nicholas +61 (0) 2 8913 4813 [email protected] [email protected] Savills New South Wales Level 7, 50 Bridge Street Sydney, NSW 2000 Australia +61 (0) 2 8215 8888 savills.com.au savills.com.au/research 2 Savills Research | Sydney Industrial April 2015 Introduction Sydney is Australia’s second largest industrial property market behind Melbourne in terms of the amount of zoned industrial land. Industrial users range from domestic service industries such as the local mechanic to larger scale users like transport, logistics and manufacturers. Savills Research refers to the Sydney industrial market across seven main precincts. These precincts and their respective municipalities are as follows: Precinct Suburbs South Sydney Botany, Mascot, Alexandria, Rosebery, Matraville South West Sydney Moorebank, Prestons, Chipping Norton, Liverpool, Revesby, Kingsgrove Outer South West Sydney Ingleburn, Minto, Smeaton Grange, Campbelltown Central West Sydney Chullora, Homebush, Rydalmere, Silverwater, Granville, Auburn Western Sydney Eastern Creek, Erskine Park, Arndell Park, Wetherill Park, Smithfield, Yennora, Girraween North West Sydney Seven Hills, Kings Park, Blacktown, Baulkham Hills North Shore Artarmon, Lane Cove, St Leonards Source: Savills Research Infrastructure In recent years significant ongoing improvements have been made to Sydney’s metropolitan transport infrastructure, including the M2 and M5 motorways which are currently being widened to accommodate increasing traffic volumes during peak periods. Sydney is linked by what is known as the Sydney Orbital Network, which connects the M1, M2, M4, M5 and the M7. This has allowed direct access from Sydney’s port and airport to all major warehousing and industrial hubs in the South West, Western and North West precincts. Sydney’s next key infrastructure project announced by the NSW Government will be Australia’s largest integrated transport and urban development known as WestConnex. The 33 kilometre project will bring together a number of Sydney’s freeways which together will form a vital link to the Orbital Network. The scope of works include the widening of the M4 east of Parramatta, a duplication of the M5 East and new sections of motorway to provide a connection between the two key corridors Transport for New South Wales is responsible for delivering transport infrastructure projects that meet time, cost and quality objectives, constantly conducts feasibility studies into seeking ways to improve the NSW rail networks. Transport for New South Wales cite the need for a number of infrastructure projects including the Northern Sydney Rail Freight Corridor, which will improve freight times from Sydney to Newcastle, north of Sydney. In order to support the growing demand for imports and exports, NSW Ports recently completed the expansion of the Intermodal Logistics Centre (ILC) at Enfield. The new terminal is located 18 kilometres west of Port Botany when fully operational, will have capacity to handle 300,000 TEU port – rail capacity per year. Furthermore, Government studies into the potential development of an additional intermodal freight terminal at Moorebank in South Western Sydney would significantly increase freight movements onto the rail network. If developed, this will further help improve container movement within metropolitan Sydney and help reach Government targets of doubling container movement by rail to and from Port Botany to 40 percent. Development of the site is likely to begin over the next year. savills.com.au/research 3 Savills Research | Sydney Industrial April 2015 Leasing Activity Savills identified approximately 757,474 square metres of industrial leases (>500 square metres) in Sydney in the 12 months to March 2015. This is up on the 12 months prior (692,295 square metres) and down on the five year average (915,730 square metres). The number of leases identified in the 12 months to March 2015 totalled 104. By comparison, a total of 161 transactions were recorded in the same period last year. Just over 234,614 square metres of space was precommitted in the 12 months to march 2015. This is slightly below the five year average of 243,000 square metres. The total number of precommitment leases in the 12 months to March 2015 totalled 16, up on the same period last year (9). The following tables detail the major leases reported throughout the past 12 months. Select Sydney Industrial Leases to March 2015 GLA (sq m) Rent $/sq m Tenant 3-29 Birnie Ave, Lidcombe 8,670 135 N Booktopia Mar-14 Unit C, 5-7 Murtha St, Arndell Park 7,278 110 N Ingram Micro Mar-14 Yennora Distribution Centre, Yennora 6,209 75 N Doble Transport Mar-14 Unit D, 5-7 Murtha St, Arndell Park 6,017 100 N Agility Logistic Apr-14 Shirley St, Rosehill 11,962 117 N The Winning Group Jun-14 5-7 Unwin St, Rosehill 19,338 115 N Couriers Please Aug-14 37 Bessemer St, Blacktown 10,052 85 N Amber Tiles Feb-15 29A Davis Rd, Wetherill Park 9,824 75 N A & J Packing Pty Ltd Feb-15 26-32 Cosgrove Rd, Enfield 1,674 105 N Parcel Freight Logistics Mar-15 4 Inglis Rd, Ingleburn 8,172 108 N Food Corporation Date Property Mar-14 Source: Savills Research Select Sydney Industrial Precommitments Leases to March 2015 GLA (sq m) Rent $/sq m Tenant 38-46 Bernera Rd, Prestons 13,917 258 N Ingham Apr-14 1-2 Turnbull Cl, Greystanes 8,000 137 N Supply Network Jun-14 Kangaroo Ave, Eastern Creek 41,200 98 N TT Industries (Ryobi) Jun-14 Lockwood Rd, Erskine Park 15,300 105 N Pelikan Artline Jun-14 Kangaroo Ave, Eastern Creek 13,400 100 N Fisher & Paykel Jun-14 52 Quarry Rd, Erskine Park 3,500 120 N DUT Transport Jul-14 Pembroke Rd, Minto 7,465 110 N Quantium Solutions Nov-14 11-13 Gibbons Rd, Winston Hills 8,800 175 N Toshiba Mar-15 Narrellan 15,034 105.5 G Date Property Apr-14 GMK Logistics Source: Savills Research na= not currently available Select Sydney ‘Build to Lease’ Industrial Leases to December 2014 GLA (sq m) Rent $/sq m Tenant Kangaroo Ave, Eastern Creek 16,845 115 N FDM Logistics 57-75 Templar Rd, Erskine Park 5,586 110 N EHI Australia Date Property May-14 Feb-15 Source: Savills Research savills.com.au/research 4 Savills Research | Sydney Industrial The Sydney industrial market experienced an increase in speculative development over the last 12 months. Developers are predominantly building surplus space following a large precommitment to a site. In the last 12 months, Savills has recorded over 80,000 square metres of leasing activity in ‘build to lease’ developments. With a further 70,000 square metres of new supply expected to be completed in 2015. The ‘Transport & Logistics’ industry leased the most industrial accommodation, taking 403,000 square metres or 53 percent of leased stock. The ‘Wholesale’ sector (including retailers, bulky goods, supermarkets, agricultural, textile, liquor, pharmaceutical, and furniture traders) accounted for 222,500 square metres or 30 percent of leased stock. The remainder of the take up in the last 12 months was made up by the ‘Manufacturing’ and ‘IT and Telecommunications’ sectors. Looking at the current levels of enquiry in the market, Savills expects the ‘Wholesale’ sector to dominate leasing activity in Sydney over the short to medium-term. April 2015 Sydney Industrial Metropolitan Leases by Lease Size (sq m) Mar-05 to Mar-15 1,600,000 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000,000 800,000 600,000 400,000 200,000 0 < 2,000 2,000 - 5,000 5,000 - 10,000 10,000 - 15,000 > 15,000 Source: Savills Research Sydney Industrial Metropolitan Leases by Lease Size (sq m and number) 12 months to Mar-15 450,000 50 400,000 45 350,000 40 35 300,000 30 250,000 25 200,000 20 150,000 15 100,000 10 50,000 5 0 0 < 2,000 2,000 - 5,000 sq m (LHS) 5,000 - 10,000 10,000 - 15,000 > 15,000 No (RHS) Source: Savills Research Leases in the Western precinct accounted for the majority of industrial stock reported leased in the 12 months to March 2015, with 413,000 square metres (including precommitments) or 55 percent. The Western precinct also recorded the majority of Sydney’s precommitment activity (204,400 square metres) for the past 12 months. The Western precinct has experienced a flurry of development in the last 12 months, which has been predominantly driven by precommitment activity. This is expected to continue with approximately 300,000 square metres of industrial space in the pipeline due to complete by the end of 2015 on sites owned by Goodman Group, Australand, DEXUS, GPT, Fitzpatrick Investments and Fife Capital. Industrial take up of warehouse space greater than 15,000 square metres represented the majority of industrial leases in the last five years, while leases in this region represented 55 percent of Sydney's reported leasing activity in the 12 months to March 2015. The FY 2014/15 YTD figure for February for total container trade reached 998,374 TEU, up by 4.2 percent compared to the same period last year. The main drivers for this increase were the import of full containers, (up 4.7 percent), full export containers (up 1.6 percent), and the export of empty containers. Anecdotal evidence suggests the increase in container movement is a likely driver of speculative development and helping support current rental levels across Sydney. savills.com.au/research 5 Savills Research | Sydney Industrial April 2015 Average net face rents remained stable across all precincts over the March 2015 quarter. Prime industrial net rents as at March 2015 in South Sydney range between $130 per square metre to $190 per square metre, secondary buildings ranged $90 per square metre to $115 per square metre. Prime industrial net rents in Western Sydney ranged between $100 per square metre and $120 per square metre and between $70 per square metre and $95 per square metre for secondary buildings. Savills expects subdued growth in secondary rents in Western Sydney as new supply captures tenants seeking new facilities. Sydney Industrial Average Prime Net Face Rents by Precinct ($/sq m) Mar-05 to Mar-15 $180 $160 $140 $120 $100 $80 $60 $40 South South West Central West Western North West North Shore Source: Savills Research Rental levels above this range are being achieved for facilities equipped with specialised fitouts, with tenants paying a premium for technically advanced facilities that provide improved warehousing efficiency. Sales Activity Savills recorded approximately $2.3 billion worth of industrial transactions in the 12 months to March 2015, up from $1.5 billion in the previous year; and up on the five year average ($1.4 billion). This level of transactional activity has returned to pre-GFC levels. Savills recorded a total of 95 properties sold, up from the previous 12 months total of 64. Sydney Industrial Metropolitan Industrial Sales by Price Range ($m) (>$5m) Mar-05 to Mar-15 $2,500 $2,000 $1,500 $1,000 This increased transactional activity was the result of eight portfolio sales which included Altis, Abacus, Valad, Pact and W.H Soul Pattinson. Vendors are taking advantage of tightening yields and increased demand for industrial assets giving rise to a significant sell down of non-core assets 2014. $500 $0 $5-$10m $10-$15m $15-$20m $20-$30m >$30m Source: Savills Research savills.com.au/research 6 Savills Research | Sydney Industrial April 2015 The Sydney industrial investment market remains extremely strong as the weight of funds from local REITs, coupled with overseas third party capital seeking to grow their portfolios, has created a seller’s market. Exacerbated by the lack of investment grade stock available for purchase, prime and secondary yields have continued to tighten over the first quarter of 2015. In the 12 months to March 2015, $554 million of reported transactions occurred in the South precinct, accounting for 25 percent of the industrial sales in this period, a large portion of which was acquired by developers buying industrial sites for residential rezoning. However, the continued reduction in industrial stock in the South precinct, Savills expects existing stock to become more desirable to tenants and investors alike. Sydney Industrial Land Values ($/sq m) March 2015 Precinct 3,000 - 5,000 sq m 10,000 - 20,000 sq m 10ha + South Sydney 500-700 450-600 na South West Sydney 275-325 225-275 180-200 Outer South West Sydney 200-250 125-170 80-100 Central West Sydney 500-600 350-450 300-350 Western Sydney 300-375 250-350 250-300 North West Sydney 275-350 250-325 225-275 North Shore 600-700 400-600 na Source: Savills Research -note: the above rates reflect benched and serviced land values. Select Sydney Industrial Land Sales to March 2015 Date Property Price ($m) Area (sq m) Price ($/sq m) Jun-14 43-49 Stennett Rd, Ingleburn^ 72.50 280,000 259 Jun-14 QuarryWest, Greystanes 50.50 265,000 191 Jun-14 2-28 McPherson St, Banksmeadow 33.10 93,000 365 Oct-14 Honeycombe Dr, Eastern Creek 8.65 27,900 310 Nov-14 Lot 11 Templar Rd, Erskine Park 6.90 42,913 161 Dec-14 Mamre Rd, Erskine Park 80.00 500,000 160 Source: Savills Research ^site includes small improvements and land lease The following tables highlights a selection of industrial sales in the last 12 months. Select Sydney Industrial Investment Sales to March 2015 Date Property Price($m) GLA (sq m) Price ($/sq m) Yield (%) Oct-14 133-145 Lenore Dr, Erskine Park 74.35* 44,702 1,663 6.25% Oct-14 38-46 Bernera Rd, Prestons 69.80 22,100 3,158 6.64% Oct-14 9-10 John Morphett Pl, Erskine Park 61.72 42,186 1,463 6.99% Dec-14 7 Gundah Rd, Mount Kuring-Gai 55.00 41,880 1,313 8.04% Dec-14 5 Inglis Rd, Ingleburn 22.35 20,400 1,096 7.53% Dec-14 44 Biloela St, Villawood 19.50 15,845 1,231 8.45% Dec-14 165 Newton Rd, Wetherill Park 18.50 12,529 1,477 7.90% Dec-14 2-13 Lord Street, Botany 153.50 43,617 3,519 na Feb-15 127 Orchard Rd, Chester Hill 37.00 25,830 1,432 7.03% Source: Savills Research ^excluding surplus land na = not currently available * approximately savills.com.au/research 7 Savills Research | Sydney Industrial April 2015 Select Sydney Industrial Vacant Possession Sales to March 2015 Date Property Price ($m) GLA (sq m) Price ($/sq m) Feb-14 133 Vanessa St, Kingsgrove 14.85 13,034 1,139 Apr-14 42 Birnie Ave, Lidcombe 12.20 8,070 1,512 Apr-14 24-32 Forge St, Blacktown 6.69 6,713 996 Sep-14 35 Bryant St, Padstow 14.00 36,850 380 Sep-14 67-77 Airds Rd, Minto 5.60 5,799 966 Source: Savills Research The most active purchaser in the market in the 12 months to March 2015 was the 'Fund' category recording $ 672 million (29 percent) worth of industrial property transactions. Likewise, the 'Fund' category was the most active in terms of number of transactions recorded with 34 sales. The 'Developer' buyer category has become more prevalent in the last 12 months making up 16 percent of total investment ($369 million). With residential developers acquiring over $330 million of industrial facilities earmarked for residential redevelopment. Undisclosed 0% Sydney Industrial Metropolitan Industrial Sales Buyer Profile (%) (>$5m) 12 months to Mar-15 Private Investor 8% Fund 29% Developer 16% Foreign Investor 10% Trust 28% Source: Savills Research Government 1% Syndicate 2% Owner Occupier 6% In the last 12 months, heightened demand for industrial development sites was evident with acquisitions of larger strategic land banks by a range of A-REITs and private equity groups. As developers work through their development pipeline, the ability to secure a tenant with a requirement of over 30,000 square metres has become increasingly difficult as land banks deplete. These land bank acquisitions allow A-REITs to grow their funds management business organically by developing new stock through market demand. Savills has recorded over $448 million of land sales during this period, totalling approximately 185 hectares of gross site area. Altis, Stockland, Charter Hall, Australand, DEXUS, Mirvac and Goodman Group all acquired large land bank sites in the last 12 months. A-REITs continued to acquire prime industrial assets across Sydney, with Goodman, Mirvac, Charter Hall, DEXUS, GPT, Australian Industrial REIT and 360 Capital all buying logistic type assets over the last 12 months. Savills expects this buyer pool for industrial property to remain acquisitive throughout 2015, further fuelling the argument of a seller’s market as assets available for purchase remain scarce. In December 2014, DEXUS announced the acquisition of the Lakes Business Park, 2-13 Lord Street Botany for $153.5 million. The site is located in Sydney’s south adjoining their Joseph Banks Corporate Park. Gentrification of the surrounding suburbs has seen large pockets of industrial buildings being demolished to make way for high density residential buildings. With no short-term expectation for residential rezoning of the Lakes Business Park or Sir Joseph Banks Corporate Park, they are well located to service the strong demand from logistics users seeking to remain near the port. savills.com.au/research 8 Savills Research | Sydney Industrial April 2015 Average prime yields for industrial stock in the Western precinct tightened by 62.5 basis points in the 12 months to March 2015. Prime industrial yields in the March 2015 quarter typically ranged between 6.75% and 7.50%. Recent sales transactions at sub 7.00% are likely to place further pressure on average industrial yields over the next 12 months. Sydney Industrial Average Prime Market Yields by Precinct (%) Mar-05 to Mar-15 10.00% 9.50% 9.00% 8.50% 8.00% 7.50% 7.00% 6.50% 6.00% South South West Source: Savills Research Central West Western North West North Shore Savills also recorded a tightening of average prime industrial yields by across all precincts, with the North Shore precinct (- 25 basis points), South West, Central West and North West precincts (-50 basis points), and the South and Outer South West precincts (-87.5 basis points) benefitting from increased investor demand. Sydney Industrial Average Prime Capital Values by Precinct ($/sq m) Mar-05 to Mar-15 $2,540 $2,040 $1,540 $1,040 $540 $40 South South West Source: Savills Research Central West Western North West North Shore Average industrial capital values in Western Sydney as at March 2015 ranged between $1,338 per square metre and $1,778 per square metre for prime stock, and between $778 per square metre and $1,188 per square metre for secondary stock. When compared to the 12 months prior, prime capital values increased by 9.2 percent, whilst secondary capital values increased by 9 percent. savills.com.au/research 9 Savills Research | Sydney Industrial April 2015 Key Market Indicators Key Market Indicators - December 2014 South Sydney Prime Secondary Low High Low High Rental Net Face ($/sq m) 130 190 90 115 Yield – (% Net Face Rental) 6.75 7.50 8.00 9.00 IRR (%) 8.75 9.25 9.00 9.75 30 40 30 40 1,733 3,040 1,000 1,438 Outgoings – total ($/sq m) Capital Values ($/sq m) Source: Savills Research South West Sydney Prime Secondary Low High Low High 95 120 65 95 Yield – (% Net Face Rental) 7.00 7.25 8.00 9.00 IRR (%) 9.00 9.25 9.00 9.75 18 22 18 22 1,267 1,714 722 1,188 Rental Net Face ($/sq m) Outgoings – total ($/sq m) Capital Values ($/sq m) Source: Savills Research Outer South West Sydney Prime Secondary Low High Low High 80 100 65 80 Yield – (% Net Face Rental) 7.00 8.00 8.25 9.25 IRR (%) 9.00 9.50 9.25 10.00 15 20 15 20 1,000 1,429 703 970 Rental Net Face ($/sq m) Outgoings – total ($/sq m) Capital Values ($/sq m) Source: Savills Research Central West Sydney Prime Secondary Low High Low High Rental Net Face ($/sq m) 105 135 80 100 Yield – (% Net Face Rental) 7.00 7.50 8.00 9.00 IRR (%) 8.25 9.25 9.00 9.75 Outgoings – total ($/sq m) Capital Values ($/sq m) 20 27 20 27 1,400 1,929 889 1,250 Source: Savills Research North West Sydney Prime Secondary Low High Low High 95 115 70 90 Yield – (% Net Face Rental) 7.25 7.75 8.25 9.00 IRR (%) 9.00 9.25 9.25 9.75 18 25 18 25 1,226 1,586 778 1,125 Rental Net Face ($/sq m) Outgoings – total ($/sq m) Capital Values ($/sq m) Source: Savills Research savills.com.au/research 10 Savills Research | Sydney Industrial April 2015 Western Sydney Prime Secondary Low High Low High Rental Net Face ($/sq m) 100 120 70 95 Yield – (% Net Face Rental) 6.75 7.5 8.00 9.00 IRR (%) 8.75 9.25 9.00 9.75 18 27 18 27 1,333 1,778 778 1,188 Outgoings – total ($/sq m) Capital Values ($/sq m) Source: Savills Research North Shore Prime Secondary Low High Low High Rental Net Face ($/sq m) 135 190 105 130 Yield – (% Net Face Rental) 8.00 9.00 9.00 10.00 IRR (%) 9.25 9.50 9.50 10.00 40 50 40 50 1,500 2,400 1,077 1,486 Outgoings – total ($/sq m) Capital Values ($/sq m) Source: Savills Research Outlook Over the next 12 months Savills anticipates the Sydney industrial investment market to remain extremely strong as the weight of capital from local REITs, coupled with overseas third party capital seeking to invest in Australia, adding further pressure on prime yields. The upcoming sale of GIC’s portfolio (circa $900 million) and the current offering by Goodman of a 55,500 square metre chilled distribution centre in Eastern Creek will be hotly contested with cap rates expected to be sub 6%. In the last 12 months, industrial-zoned land banks have become highly sought after as AREITs and private equity groups spent over $448 million for 185 hectares of land as they focus their attention on building their portfolios. Examples include purchases made by Altis, Stockland, Goodman, Mirvac, DEXUS and Australand of >10 hectare sites which will be ready to develop in 2015/2016. Savills believes land values for larger sites (>10 hectares) will lift as A-REITs compete to acquire well located land in Sydney’s Western precincts. These rates currently range between $250-$350 per square metre for serviced and benched sites. Looking forward, Savills anticipates owner occupiers will continue to seek two to four hectare sites which will put further pressure on supply, as demand will continue to drive value. ‘Build to lease’ development remains active as DEXUS, Australand, Fitzpatrick Investment and Goodman are all developing facilities in Western Sydney without prior tenant commitment. Approximately 165,000 square metres of speculative space is expected to come to the market between now and the final quarter of 2015. Over the last three months, new leasing enquiries have predominantly been from major logistic companies and retailers seeking circa 20,000-25,000 square metres of space in Western Sydney. However, Savills are aware of a couple of ‘mega shed’ requirements ranging from 50,000 square metres to 70,000 square metres. This demand is expected to be met through precommitments. Over the next 12 months, Savills expects to see rental growth for industrial stock across most Sydney precincts, especially so in the South precinct where the reduction in industrial stock due to the gentrification of suburbs such as Mascot, Botany, Alexandria and St Peters will put upward pressure on rents. savills.com.au/research 11 Savills Research | Sydney Industrial April 2015 Savills New South Wales Team Our highly regarded research divisions are dedicated to understanding and giving indepth insight into the commercial, industrial & retail markets throughout Australia. We also provide in-depth consultancy services, ranging from tenant representation to property site selection for multinational businesses. Our research teams are highly qualified real estate professionals with comprehensive knowledge of property markets across Australia. 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