1 MIGRATORY PATTERNS AND DIFFERENTIAL VULNERABILITY AS ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE VARIABILITY: CASE STUDIES OF RURAL YOUTH OUTMIGRATION IN ETHIOPIA Charles Teller, Teshome Desta, Dula Etana & Yordanos Seifu IUSSP Seminar on Dem. Vulnerability to Natural Disasters in the Context of Climate Change Adaptation 23-25 April 2014, Kao Lak, Thailand Background 2  Declining but still high food insecurity (36% of households), poverty and functional illiteracy in rural areas        Small and declining farm land per HH Limited off-farm employment opportunities in rural areas under climate variability; low technology and institutional capacity Poor communication and road infrastructure for info. networking Temporary and permanent migration as an increasing demographic response to population-resource imbalance and perceived urban educational and job opportunities New Inter-Censal Demo. Survey (2012) shows high net outmigration from the Northern two Regions Ethiopian NAPA does not consider population variables among the 37 potential climate change adaptation options identified Most of the 25 million youth population concentrated in drought-prone or densely populated areas are subject to increasing climate variability Ethiopian Literature on Migration, Vulnerability & Drought/Climate Var. 3          Dessalegn Rahmato- Dynamics of rural poverty, South, 1992 Markos Ezra-Demog. responses to environmental degradation in drought-prone areas of NE, 1999 AAU/Brown- Mig., gender, health, dev’t; 5 regions 2000 DPPC/USAID- Vulnerability profiles, 16 districts in 4 regions, 19982002 IFPRI/AAU/Oxford- Drought & migration in 15 communities, Eth. Rural HH Survey, 1999-2009 Jimma/Brown- Longitudinal Family Survey of Youth, 2005-2008 World Bank- Urban Migration Study, 2008 IOM- Irregular Migration from E. AFR & Horn to S. Afr., 2009 EEA/AAU- Dem. responses and youth migration, 3 regions, 2011 Objectives 4 Broad objective: Examine the local context and role of different types of internal and international migration as pathways to strengthen resilience and adaptation to drought, climate variability and pop. pressure; FOCUS on rural youth as key to harnessing demographic dividend Research questions i. What is the demographic vulnerability of youth migrants from different demographic and climatic areas around Ethiopia? ii. What are the risks, consequences and opportunities of out-migration as part of the adaptation process? iii. What is the role on international youth migration in long term strategy of adaptation to climate change? iv. Can youth outmigration contribute significantly to the potential demographic dividend, with delayed transitions to childbearing? 5 Case Studies in 4 different agroclimatic zones of Ethiopia 1. 2. 3. 4. Drought-prone, rugged: Wolaita (S.West) Mountainous, densely populated & deforested: West Gojjam (N.West) Densely-populated: Hadiya/Kembata (S.Cent.) Non-drought-prone, subsistence: Arjo (West) BEWARE OF GROSS GENERALIZATIONS IN ETHIOPIA! Four case study areas in the semi-temperate and temperate highlands of Ethiopia 6 Context: High Population Density (400-800/Sq Mi) in Four Outmigration Zones-W. Gojjam, Wolaita and Hadiya & Kembata CASES 1 & 2: Explicit probing on adaptation to shocks/hazards (Eg., through Focus Groups, W. Gojjam) 9 Higher % of HHs with all 3 types of migrants from chronically drought-prone Wolaita 60 50 40 Short-term (last 12 mo.) Planning (next 12 mo.) Permanent (last 10 yrs) 30 20 10 0 W. Gojjam Woleitta Demographically, Permanent Migrant Households are older and more female-headed than non-migrant HHs 10 Demographic Characteristic Permanent Migrant Household Non-Migrant Household Age of Head (mean) 50.5 yrs 41.2 yrs Older Age of Head (% >50) 50.9 22.5 Female-Headed (%) 14.8 10.6 Divorced, Widowed(Head)(%) 15.5 11.4 Household Size (mean) 5.6 persons 5.3 persons 11 Socio-eco-demographic correlates: Permanent & future migrant HHs better off; Temporary worse Drivers Permanent Older age of HH head Literate HH *** Larger HH Size *** More Land owned Kms. to Wereda Capitl. Shocks & risks faced Poorest Assets Constant *** Temporary * ** ** ** *** Planned/Future *** ** * *** *** * *** 12 Rural-Urban permanent migration pattern predominates in both zones Migration Pattern Rural-rural Rural-urban Don't know where (N) W. Gojjam 20.7% Wolaita 9.6% 78.7% 85.8% 0.7% 4.6% (150) (394) Permanent migrant households have more assets (consumer durables) than non-migrant households 30 Migrant households Non-migrant households 25 Percentage 20 15 10 5 0 Q1 lowest 13 Q2 Q3 Asset quintiles Q4 Q5 highest Linkages: Reasons for Permanent Outmigration of Youth from 2 Rural Areas, by Zone*, Sex, 2011 80 *1 Wereda each zone 70 60 50 Work-related Study-related 40 30 20 10 0 W.Gojjam-Boys W.Gojjam-Girls Wolaitta-Boys Wollaita-Girls Secondary Education Greatly Increased after Permanent Outmigration 15 Education (highest grade before move) None 1-6 7-8 9+ W. Gojjam Wolaitta Total 15.3 16.0 47.2 21.5 13.8 52.6 17.8 15.8 14.2 42.9 25.6 17.3 (399) (543) (144) Education (highest at time of survey) None 1-6 7-8 9+ 19.4 35.1 12.6 32.0 22.0 43.7 12.6 21.7 12.4 12.4 12.4 62.8 (137) (364) (501) Migration/off-farm labor included more as adaptation to shocks than as short-term coping 16 ADAPTATION RESPONSES (Last 3 years) % Agricultural- planting drought resistant crop varieties; applying fertilizers 56 Migration and off-farm labor- To all shocks/ to environ. shocks 22 / 11 Diversifying income sources 11 Environmental protection, reforestation, contours, etc. 4 The Migration Decision Process Cultural change, Aspiration, Information, and Networks Desire to Out-migrate Push Factors •Land shortage •Unemployment •Declining soil fertility •Rising price-fertilizer •Lack of second. edu. •School drop-outs •Lack of parental care •Environ. degradation •Domestic conflict Intention to Out-migrate Concrete Plan to Out-migrate Out-Migration 17 Resources to Outmigrate Pull Factors •Job opportunities •Land Availability •Edu. Opportunity •Urban Lifestyles •Land renting possibility •Kenja Scheme •Better Remuneration •Fertile land-no fertilizer •Changes observed in the return migrants 18 Migration decision-making process: complexity of socio-cultural change       Peer influence of successful return migrants Conflict with parents (over land, aspirations) Poor education quality (school dropout who can’t return home) Safer travel (new roads and transportation) Better Communication (mobile phones, TV) Social networks in urban destinations Youths explain how Population-Land Pressure and Rising Aspirations drive them out “Household heads usually could not feed and educate their members well. Here in our locality, household heads do not have enough money to fulfill all the needs of their children. Their farm land is too small and hence the yield as well as the income is very small to buy cloths, books, food items, education, etc. This imbalance usually became a cause for most of the disagreements between parents and children. If the children are teenagers (at their puberty age), they don’t want to wait anymore for their needs to be fulfilled, since they observe that their parents can’t do it. They sometimes clash with their parents, and for this reason and decide to migrate anywhere to fulfill their dreams.” *FGD Youth, Kindo Didaye Woreda, Wolaitta Zone In different contexts, benefits outweigh risks for perm. & temp. youth migrants 20 Deforested W. Gojjam        Girls stay in school Meet educational expenses Greater job opportunities Delayed marriage CPR double in migrant HHs Additional resources to buy land or shops, and for marriage Illnesses Drought-prone Wolaita       Construct/upgrade parents’ housing Buy animals; motor bicycles Help younger siblings Reduces crime by unemployed youth New ideas and insights on life Unwanted pregnancy 21 Seasonal migration providing resources for continuing education “The youth would attend schools during the academic season, and starting from June to early September, they migrate either to Jawe and Humera as daily laborers on the farm, or they migrate to Addis Ababa to do businesses such as selling lottery, loading and unloading or going errands. After saving some money to buy exercise book, pen, clothing and other educational materials, they will come back to continue their education.” (FGD participant- W. Gojjam) NON-DROUGHT-PRONE: CASE 3 (ARJO):Migration &livelihood vulnerability 22      Demographic Pressure- Population growth, smaller land holdings and land degradation Climate variability- unreliable rain (too much and too little) Low level of technology- labor intensive farming Declining agricultural productivity; lack of agroindustrial development Weak rural-urban linkages and external social networks; conservative culture 23 Non-drought prone area: demographic vulnerability in extreme ages of household head      Livelihood vulnerability highest among households headed by both the young and the old Younger ones have little key assets (land, labor, oxen); some without farm land Older ones lack key assets due to having bequeathed their land resources; lack labor Female-headed households more vulnerable due to their marginalization and lack of land (sharecrop) Household labor size (man-equivalent) not stat. related to livelihood vulnerability 24 CASE 4IRREGULAR INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION FROM VERY DENSELY POPULATED SOUTH-CENTRAL (HADIYA AND KEMBATA) TO SOUTH AFRICA 25 Higher Secondary Education - in outmigrants & return migrants, vs non-migrants (Hadiya/Kemb.) 26 Illiterate Primary Secondary Diploma+ 80 68 70 Percentages 60 54 51 50 40 38 33 30 26 19 20 10 0 25 23 14 8 5 OM 5 14 11 8 RM NM Migration Status Total Higher employment- in outmigrants migrants than return migrants (at time of migration), vs non-migrants: Hadiya/Kembata 27 Unemployed 70 66 58 Percentages 60 54 48 50 40 Employed 42 52 42 34 30 20 10 0 OM RM NM Migration Status Total Causes of outmigration migration to S. Africa: Balance between perceived opportunities there and lack of opportunities/unemployment in Hadiya/Kembata 28 Family/Peer Pressure Opportunities in RSA “For us, next God is only South Africa” Lack Opportunities Home Meet Relatives in RSA Land Shortage Poverty Unemployment 0 10 20 30 Percentages 40 50 Discussion 29      The poor drought-prone district had higher rural youth outmigration than the better-off (but deforested) district Education is main benefit of outmigration in the better off district, esp. for girls Rural youth 3x more likely to migrate out of country than urban youth in Had./Kem.; very low income; high expectations in RSA Youth engaged in trade before are 16x more likely to migrate out of country than those in agriculture Better-off youth in the one non-drought-prone district less likely to migrate permanently than in others; culturally unacceptable to leave, and have other options 30 Adaptation to climate variability in context of sociocultural change in aspirations of rural youth      Differential migration patterns by age, sex, residence, education, motivation and work status provide more opportunities than risks The contribution of both temporary and permanent migration to increased human capital and delayed transition to marriage contributes to a potential youth dividend Shocks to the environment affect poorer, short term migrants than long-term migrants Labor migration of youth from resource-constrained areas and with little education reduce household and community vulnerability to environmental stress Overseas migration to S. Africa much more influenced by perceived better opportunities and less constrained political environment than by climate variability and environmental constraints. Policy & Research Implications 31         Generate a national debate on rural-urban and international migration in terms of the NAPA, NPP and GTP. Revise 1993 Nat. Pop. Policy objective that discourages rural-urban migration; particularly important for girls’ high school retention Update the Ethiopian NAPA to include different types of migration and assist vulnerable households in building more climate-resilient livelihoods Enter into formal agreements with attractive receiving countries on international migration (eg., with RSA, Saudi Arabia, etc)) Adapt policy for youth as specific to local conditions, pop. pressure, environmental degradation, culture and opportunities Work toward capturing the potential demog. dividend through higher education, skill and job creation, later age of marriage and lower fertility and population growth Plan for migration of poorer, “trapped” youth from high climatic variability areas to contribute to longer-term adaptation to climate change Include impermanent and circular migration patterns in policy research, as these common patterns affect the more vulnerable and less resilient Acknowledgments 32       Packard Foundation- Yemesrach Belayeneh Ethiopian Economic Association (EEA)- Fitsum Zewdu; Degnet Abebaw Regional, Zonal, Wereda and Kebele administrative offices Addis Ababa U. (Center for Population Studies)- Assefa Hailemariam, Mehiret Habte; School of Graduate Studies Wolaita Sodo University Wittgenstein Centre- Raya Muttarak