1. law, govt and politics
2. armed forces
3. navy

How to achieve low carbon development within a context of socio‐economic development development
Tools for coupling low carbon policies with the socio
socioeconomic development
Plenary 2 : How to achieve low carbon development LCS‐RNet
LCS
RNet Workshop on Workshop on “Gathering
Gathering around for Transition and Global around for Transition and Global
Challenges towards Low Carbon Societies”
Venue: PACIFICO Yokohama, Date: 22 July 2013 Speaker: Yuzuru Matsuoka, Kyoto University, Japan
LCS‐RNet Workshop, 2013
1
C t t
Contents
1 Necessary points for discussing Low Carbon Development 1.
Necessary points for discussing Low Carbon Development
2. The image of Low Carbon Societies in the study
3. Overall research procedure of our LC development approach
pp
4. Some checking points of Low Carbon Society Visions and D l
Development Actions, and supporting tools for the A i
d
i
l f h
analyzing the points
5. Details of the analysis with typical outputs 6 Some outputs of our Low Carbon Development Studies
6.
Some outputs of our Low Carbon Development Studies
7. Some lessons when handling the actual LCD actions with model outputs
LCS‐RNet Workshop, 2013
2
Necessary elements for discussing Low Carbon Development
IIn order to realize Asian Low Carbon d t
li A i L
C b
Development (LCD), ….
1. Considering domestic and international factors which control the realization of LCD, we must create visions of Low Carbon Society and prescribe the development, accumulation, and deepening of factors which control the realization of the Societies with multi‐spatial, and integrated quantification methodologies,
pp y
gy
g
g
,
g
2. Apply the methodology to the target regions, taking account of regional distinctive diversified characteristics,
3. Design positive Asian Low Carbon Development Actions and roadmaps towards the Visions with back‐casting methodologies. LCS‐RNet Workshop, 2013
3
The Low Carbon Society Visions and Development Actions towards them should be; By the middle of this century (2050), the societies must ti f th f ll i
satisfy the followings; 1. Harmonized with drastically changing future Asian society and economy,
2. Complying
Complying with each country
with each country'ss national reduction target national reduction target
that consists with the global low carbon target, under the global, national and regional constraints on fossil and
global, national and regional constraints on fossil and renewal energy resources, land resource, and human capacity,
p
y,
3. Utilizing the most of co‐benefits of LC policies and neighboring policies.
i hb i
li i
LCS‐RNet Workshop, 2013
4
Up to now, we applied and are applying our LCD Scenario Up
to now we applied and are applying our LCD Scenario
approach to 8 nations and 14 regions in Asia regions
Malaysia
Japan
Kyoto
Shiga
Putrajaya
Cyberjaya
Tsukuba
Iskandar
Malaysia
Nagasaki
ki
China
I di
India
Guan Zhou
Bhopal
Dalian
Ahmedabad
Ah d b d
Thailand
Vietnam
Ratchaburi
Bangladesh
KhonKaen
Indonesia
S. Korea
Cambodia
Kyonggi‐‐do
Kyonggi
LCS‐RNet Workshop, 2013
5
•
•
•
•
•
•
Overall research procedure of our LC p
pp
development approach
Area
Base year
Target year
C
Covered
d sectors
t
Actors/Players
LCS target
Quantifications of
parameters:
• Population
• Final demand
• Transport parameters
• Energy service
demand generation
• Energy device share
• Power
P
supply
l
assumptions
Setting framework
Qualification of Socio‐
economic Vision
Quantification of Socio‐
economic Visions and GHG emission Try and error to keep consistency and unity among Socio‐
S i
Economic policies and LCD targets
Analysis of Alternative LCD scenarios and measures
Design LCD Actions and Roadmaps from
and Roadmaps from the analysis
LCS‐RNet Workshop, 2013
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Demography
Lifestyle
Economy
Transport
g
Building
Resource
efficiency
Energy strategy
Power supply
Evaluation of Scenarios /
measures:
• Transportation
p
system
y
• Energy service demand
generation
• Energy device share
• Power supply options
• Renewable energy
• Carbon sink
• etc.
6
Some checking points of Low Carbon Society Visions and Development Actions
Low Carbon Society Visions and Development
1. LC Society Visions and Development
1
LC S i t Vi i
dD l
t Actions should be;
A ti
h ld b
1‐1) Technologically, 1 2) Economically/Financially and
1‐2) Economically/Financially, and 1‐3) Institutionally feasible and efficient
feasible and efficient. →Multi‐criteria problem
2. Also, they should be well harmonized and collaborating with policies on:
policies on:
2‐1) Vitalization of national/regional economy (Job c eat o , co e c ease, att act o o o e g
(Job creation, income increase, attraction of foreign direct investment, and so on),
2‐2) Environment, Comfortability, and Security )
,
y,
y
→Multi‐objective problem
LCS‐RNet Workshop, 2013
7
Some Questions and corresponding tools Some
Questions and corresponding tools
for answering them, to support constructing LCD Actions Question Tool developed Explanation
What kind of LCD measures are
available?

LCM-DB
How to adjust
j
diverse objectives
j
and
preferences among LCD Actions ?

AHP tool
How to manage LCD Actions
systematically ?

LCD‐Action Tools
Analytic hierarchy process
tool
A group of Tools on Logical
structure
t
t
off LCD actions
ti
How to develop quantitative visions, and
check the feasibility with GHG reduction
g , industrial structure and so on?
targets,

ExSS
Extended snapshot tool.

AIM/
Enduse
AIM Enduse-bottom-up
model
What is the optimal technologies
invested and how much are their costs?
Low-carbon
Lo
carbon measures
meas res
database
How much is the impact to macroeconomy of LCD actions ?

AIM/CGE
AIM Computable general
equilibrium model
How tto construct
H
t t th
the schedule
h d l off LCD
actions?

BCT
Backcasting tool
LCS‐RNet Workshop, 2013
8
•
•
•
•
•
•
Overall research procedure of our LC p
pp
development approach
Area
Base year
Target year
C
Covered
d sectors
t
Actors/Players
LCS targets
Quantifications of
parameters:
• Population
• Final demand
• Transport parameters
• Energy service
demand generation
• Energy device share
• Power
P
supply
l
assumptions
Setting framework
Qualification of Socio‐
economic Vision
Quantification of Socio‐
economic Visions and GHG emission Try and error to keep consistency and unity among Socio‐
S i
Economic policies and LCD targets
Analysis of Alternative LCD scenarios and measures
Design LCD Actions and Roadmaps from
and Roadmaps from the analysis
LCS‐RNet Workshop, 2013
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Demography
Lifestyle
Economy
Transport
g
Building
Resource
efficiency
Energy strategy
Power supply
Evaluation of Scenarios /
measures:
• Transportation
p
system
y
• Energy service demand
generation
• Energy device share
• Power supply options
• Renewable energy
• Carbon sink
• etc.
9
Analyzing procedure
•
•
•
•
•
•
Area
Base year
Target year
Covered sectors
Actors/Players
LCS target
Quantifications of
parameters:
• Population
• Final demand
• Transport parameters
• Energy service
demand generation
• Energy device share
• Power supply
assumptions
Setting framework
Setting of Socio‐
economic Vision
Quantification of Socio‐
economic Visions and GHG emission
GHG emission Try and error to keep consistency and unity
consistency and unity among Socio‐
Economic policies and LCD targets
Analysis of Alternative LCD scenarios and measures
Design LCD Actions and Roadmaps from the analysis
LCS‐RNet Workshop, 2013
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Demography
Lifestyle
Economy
Transport
B ildi
Building
Resource
efficiency
Energy strategy
Power supply
Evaluation of Scenarios /
measures:
• T
Transportation
t ti system
t
• Energy service demand
generation
• Energy
gy device share
• Power supply options
• Renewable energy
• Carbon sink
• etc.
etc
10
Extended Snapshot Tool (ExSS)
Extended Snapshot Tool (ExSS)
• ExSS is a tool to design and assess present and future energy consumption,
power generation, technology diffusion, transportation, industrial activities,
AFOLU sectors’ activites, residential and commercial activities, waste
generation and GHG emissions, coupling with prescribed socio
socio-economic,
economic,
industrial and demographic scenarios in a particular future year.
• ExSS is an “input-output”
input-output type model consists of simultaneous equations with
more than several thousand variables.
• E
ExSS
SS is
i b
based
d on th
the id
idea off “b
“back-casting”
k
ti ” approach
h and
d used
d tto “D
“Design”
i ”a
future society as a Low Carbon Society in a consistent and quantitative
manner.
• ExSS has been used for development of Low Carbon Strategy and Roadmap
y nations and regions
g
in Asia.
in many
• It is a GAMS linear/non-linear program operated on MS-Windows
LCS‐RNet Workshop, 2013
11
1st step: and 2nd Step Setting of Socio‐
economic Vision of the region
Shiga study
Discussing on future visions of the region
Quantification of the vision
Qualification of the Society vision
Based on narrative description of 2030 Society vision such as;
1. Powerful cities and industries f l ii
di d
i
maintaining intra‐prefectural and inter‐prefectural connections
2. Beautiful rural villages maintaining g
g
nature and landscape
on top of the following prevailing socio‐economic trends of this region;
i
i t d f thi
i
1. Return of the population to the current level and progress of aging;
2. Mature economic growth and dramatic increase in the role of the tertiary industry; and
3 Increase in the proportion of 3.
Increase in the proportion of
women and elderly people in employment.
Based on these, we designed quantitatively the regional vision in 2030
LCS‐RNet Workshop, 2013
12
1st and 2nd step: Setting of Socio‐
economic Vision of the region
Shiga study
Quantification of future people’s lifestyle
Visions on how people in the region spend 24 hours are very important. The figures in 2000 are based on the Survey of Time Use and Leisure Activities conducted by the national government, and those in 2030 are t d th
i 2030
estimates in this research based on inquiries to the regional people. The lime green areas represent
The lime green areas represent working hours, which reflect the increases in the labor participation rate of women and elderly people
rate of women and elderly people. The time for voluntary activities and social participation activities, presented in bisque color, will
presented in bisque color, will increase by around 30 minutes per day on average, which is equivalent p
p
g
to participating in 8‐hour activities for about 24 days in a year.
LCS‐RNet Workshop, 2013
13
Some mechanisms considered in ExSS
for quantifying regional future visions
for quantifying regional future visions
2nd step: Quantification of Socio‐economic Visions and GHG emission, Shiga study Change of investment from
g
inside/outside of the region
Parameters
change of nonbasic local
industry
y
Agriculture
Manufacturin
g industry
Change of
remaining
ratio of
value-added
l
dd d
within the
region
Offshore
procurement
Service
industry
Internal market
Industry
Offshore
procurement
Regional
People
Job
creation
Purchase
Tax
Local
government
Agriculture
Manufacturin
g industry
Key parameters
considered in
ExSS for regional
economy
GHG emission
activities
Public
projects
Local
procurement
Economic
ti it
activity
Material and
service flow
Job creation
W
Working
outside
of region
Parameter
changes of
basic
export
industry
Change of
local
product
preference
Service
industry
Offshore market
Industry
Export
Retail
• Convenience
goods
• Shopping
goods
• Specialty
goods
Outside of region
Monetary flow
LCS‐RNet Workshop, 2013
14
2nd step: Quantification of Socio‐economic economic Visions and GHG emission, Shiga study Quantification of economy and industry change in the region
Quantification of economy and industry change in the region
• The share of the manufacturing industry i l
is large in the industry of this region, the i th i d t
f thi
i
th
exports account for a high proportion of the final demands. Therefore, the industry largely depends on the economic y g y p
trend of the nation as a whole. • Based on the assumption that per capita GDP in this country will grow by 0 87%
GDP in this country will grow by 0.87%, annual per capita GDP growth will be assumed as 0.90% in this region. • Furthermore, we have estimated further detail with an input‐output analysis. Based on assumptions that the service sector grows and the food self‐sufficiency
sector grows and the food self‐sufficiency ratio in the prefecture increases (about 50% in monetary terms including intermediate input, we have estimated that the shares of the primary and tertiary industries will grow and the secondary industry will decline in the production in 2030.
production in 2030.
LCS‐RNet Workshop, 2013
15
2nd step: Quantification of Socio‐economic economic Visions and GHG emission, Shiga study Summary of the quantified socioeconomic vision
vision
1.38 million in 2030 (estimated by Shiga Prefecture in 2006; similar level to the population in
Population
2005)
520,000 households in 2030 (same as above; 470,000 households in 2005)
No. of households
Per capita GDP: approximately 0.9% of annual growth
National economy
Investment in infrastructure development, etc. After basic infrastructure development has
Public fixed capital
been completed, new development is dramatically reduced and capital investment is placed
formation
mainly on maintenance and management. Total investment is lower than the current level.
C t t off private
Contents
i t
With longer-life
l
lif products,
d t the
th value
l off purchased
h
d goods
d remains
i unchanged.
h
d It is
i assumed
d
that the shares of spending for the primary industry and personal services (education,
consumption
healthcare and insurance, accommodation, etc.) increase.
expenditure
Through the development of the welfare environment to facilitate the employment of
y
rate
elderly
y people and women, the employment
y
rate of elderly
y males rises by
y 20% and the rate
Employment
of women by 10 to 30%.
The working hours of male workers are reduced by 1.5 hours per day. It is assumed that
Time budget
both men and women increase time for participating in social activities.
The breakdown of goods and services delivered from Shiga to outside the prefecture. The
Breakdown of exports
exports of products in the manufacturing industry are assumed to remain unchanged in
monetary terms.
The ratio of the goods and services produced outside Shiga Prefecture in the demands for
Import ratio
goods and services in the prefecture. The import ratio of goods in the primary industry
declines, but imports of other goods and services increase.
The input of raw materials needed for the production of one unit in a certain industry. It is
assumed that this figure declines due to paperless operations based on the use of IT, less
Input-Output coefficient
input of metal and cement and increase of wood products in public projects, and reduced
consumption of fuel and electricity as a result of energy saving.
To maintain an annual economic growth of 0
0.9%
9% while the population is decreasing,
decreasing it is
Labor productivity
necessary to secure high labor productivity. Labor productivity per person-hour rises by
2.7% per annum in the manufacturing industry and by 1.6% in the service industry.
item
LCS‐RNet Workshop, 2013
16
How to combine the tools in order to keep consistency and unity among Socio Economic
consistency and unity among Socio‐Economic policies and LCD actions
Extended snapshot tool (ExSS)
3rd step: Try and error to keep consistency and unity among Socio‐
Economic policies and
Economic policies and LCD targets
An integrating tool of future
economic, industrial, social and
energy visions with mitigating
options
Designing Snapshot of LCS visions
Quantification of LCD scenarios
AIM/CGE
Economic Tool for keeping macro
macroanalysis l
economic consistency
of LCD among supply, demand
and resource constraints,
and
a
d for
o est
estimating
at g macroac o
economic impacts
AIM/Enduse
Engineering and financial df
l
analysis of LCD LCS (Low Carbon LCS
(Low Carbon
Strategy) Tools
Institutional and logical design of LCD Low Carbon Development Actions and Roadmaps
LCS‐RNet Workshop, 2013
A tool for people and
industry’s
industry
s demand
generation processes,
technology deployment,
and their impacts on GHG
emission
Tools for connecting model outputs
with LCD Action making process
logically,
g
y, and support
pp designing,
g g,
monitoring and managing the Low
Carbon Strategy progress
17
4th step: Assessment of Alternative LCD Scenarios
Analysis of Socio-Macroeconomic Impacts of
Alternative LCD Scenarios
Combined outputs of ExSS , CGE, Enduse model, Shiga study
•Comparison among one BaU
p
g
scenario and three alternative LCD scenarios •Technocentric scenario: focused on the vitalization of eco‐industry in the region
•Agrocentric scenario: focused on the regional renewable energy production
•Balanced scenario: balanced mix of Technocentric and Agrocentric scenarios
Scenario
Unit
year
Quantified Targets
Social
Macro‐
economic Impacts
Created Job
2030
Balanced
2030/ 2000
12876.7
6.7
0 38
0.38
16.2
377.8
12145.9
1396.9
14369.5
6.6
0 39
0.39
15.1
400.1
13783.2
1380.8
(%)
11.6
-1.5
26
2.6
-6.8
5.9
13.5
-1.2
5884.0
7677.0
30.5
2030
Technocentric
2030/ 2000
6275.8
3.3
0 09
0.09
7.7
168.7
6214.4
1401.6
(%)
-51.3
-50.7
-76.3
76 3
-52.5
-55.4
-48.8
0.3
7737.5
31.5
2030
2030/ 2000
6515.6
3.3
0 10
0.10
7.9
173.8
4506.1
1378.8
(%)
-49.4
-50.1
-74.9
74 9
-51.4
-54.0
-62.9
-1.3
7708.0
31.0
Agrocentric
2030
2030/ 2000
6425.5
3.3
0 10
0.10
8.3
182.5
8477.8
1405.3
(%)
-50.1
-50.3
-75.0
75 0
-48.8
-51.7
-30.2
0.6
7655.1
30.1
0.0
343.0
370.7
210.5
Bill JPY/
Bill.
JPY/y
00
0.0
60 5
60.5
31 0
31.0
-21.9
21 9
1000
0.0
20.1
25.7
15.6
(direct financial cost)
(GRP change from BaU)
BaU
2000
GHG emission
ktCO2eq
TN load to lake Biwa
kt
TP load to lake Biwa
kt
COD load to lake Biwa
kt
Waste final disposal
kt
Total energy consumptio
ktoe
Population
1000
Gross Regional
Bill. JPY/y
Production (GRP)
Implementation cost
Bill. JPY/y
Macro-economic
ac o eco o c impact
pac
Base
yyear
: Targeted for 75%(-0.75) reduction
: Targeted for 50%(
50%(-0.50)
0 50) reduction
LCS‐RNet Workshop, 2013
18
Analyzing procedure
•
•
•
•
•
•
Area
Base year
Target year
Covered sectors
Actors/Players
LCS target
Quantifications of
parameters:
• Population
• Final demand
• Transport parameters
• Energy service
demand generation
• Energy device share
• Power supply
assumptions
Setting framework
Setting of Socio‐
economic Vision
Quantification of Socio‐
economic Visions and GHG emission
GHG emission Try and error to keep consistency and unity
consistency and unity among Socio‐
Economic policies and LCD targets
Analysis of Alternative LCD scenarios and measures
Design LCD Actions and Roadmaps from the analysis
LCS‐RNet Workshop, 2013
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Demography
Lifestyle
Economy
Transport
B ildi
Building
Resource
efficiency
Energy strategy
Power supply
Evaluation of Scenarios /
measures:
• T
Transportation
t ti system
t
• Energy service demand
generation
• Energy
gy device share
• Power supply options
• Renewable energy
• Carbon sink
• etc.
etc
19
5th step: Design LCD Actions and Roadmaps from the analysis, Shiga study
Low Carbon Development Action (LCD‐A)
LCD A
LCD‐A
•
•
LCD‐A is a group of measures and programs for realizing Low Carbon Development It organizes and
Development. It organizes and totals the scope of the LCD measures, from a view points of implementing and managing the
implementing and managing the related actions.
Overall structure of LCD‐A is shown with its Work Breakdown Structure (LCD‐Action Breakdown Structure, LCD‐ABS). It is a graphical format of hierarchical display of deliverable measures p g
,
and programs, which are further broken down into more detailed deliverables. An example of LCD‐ABS in IM LCS Blue Print
LCS‐RNet Workshop, 2013
20
Systematic diagram of LCD measures
LCD Action Breakdown Structure(LCD‐ABS)
Shiga Study
Shiga Study
LCS‐RNet Workshop, 2013
21
LCD A B k ti tool (BCT)
LCD‐A Backcasting
t l (BCT)
• A tool for designing time schedule and combinations of action processes towards the target LCS, under the condition of maximizing the objective of the actions, i.e. the integrated net benefit including co‐benefits
the actions, i.e. the integrated net benefit including co
benefits during during
planning period • The Integrated net benefit is evaluated with multi‐criteria methodology • The method is formulated as a Mixed Integer Program coded with GAMS
• In addition to GHG reduction target constraint, the following five types of resource constraints are considered during each planning year
resource constraints
are considered during each planning year
Financial constraints
Public sector
Private sectors
Maximum allocatable
budget
Maximum allocatable
budget
Experts’ capacity constraints Experts
capacity constraints Maximum
Maximum number of experts mobilized in the related number of experts mobilized in the related
sections Administrative capacity constraints
t i t
Maximum number of officials mobilized in the ffi i l
bili d i th
related sections
LCS‐RNet Workshop, 2013
Maximum number of managers mobilized in
bili d i the th
related sections
22
Action to make people’s
Necessary timing of
actions backcasted
and their effects (1)
Lifestyle changing h
i
with “Mottainai”
Outputs of BCT, Shiga study
Action to make the City as harmony‐with‐
green space
green space
LCS‐RNet Workshop, 2013
23
Necessary timing of actions
backcasted and their effects ((2))
Outputs of BCT, Shiga study
Action to make
Forest development
de
e op e t
supporting Biwa lake and lifestyle
Action to make the
Transportation/
distribution ggently connecting y
g
people and objects to environment LCS‐RNet Workshop, 2013
24
Necessary timing of actions
backcasted and their effects
((3))
Action to make Industry growing along with environment
Outputs of BCT, Shiga study
Action to make Energy produced by nature
LCS‐RNet Workshop, 2013
25
Annual cost flows for implementation
Outputs of BCT, Shiga study
Private sectors
Public sectors
80 Billion JP
PY
800 600 400
400 nature
産業活動
Industry growing along with environment
生活
Lifestyle change
50 40 30 まちと建物
City in harmony‐with‐
10 2015
2020
2025
0 2010
2030
350 60 300
300 50
50 Billion
n JPY
250 200 150 100 green space
交通・物流
Transportation
2015
2020
2025
2030
2015
2020
2025
2030
40 30
30 20 10
10 50
50 0 2010
自然エネルギー
Energy produced by 20 200 Billion
n JPY
C
Constant flow casse
60 1,000 0 2010
森林保全
Forest development
Forest development
70 1,200 Billion JP
PY
Variiable flow
w case
1,400 2015
262020
0 2025
2030
2010
LCS‐RNet Workshop, 2013
Up to now, we applied and are applying our LCD Scenario Up
to now we applied and are applying our LCD Scenario
approach to 8 nations and 14 regions in Asia regions
Malaysia
Japan
Kyoto
Shiga
Putrajaya
Cyberjaya
Tsukuba
Iskandar
Malaysia
Nagasaki
ki
China
I di
India
Guan Zhou
Bhopal
Dalian
Ahmedabad
Ah d b d
Thailand
Vietnam
Ratchaburi
Bangladesh
KhonKaen
Indonesia
S. Korea
Cambodia
Kyonggi‐‐do
Kyonggi
LCS‐RNet Workshop, 2013
27
Applied to Japan local regions, the early cases of full applications to actual implementation process
Shiga Scenarios towards the realization of Shi
S
i t
d th
li ti
f
Sustainable Society
JPN‐SIG2030
A Roadmap toward Low Carbon Kyoto
Low Carbon Kyoto
JPN‐KYT2030
2009/10
2007/05
2009/11
GHG emissions and their reduction by sector
GHG emissions and their reduction by sector
Contribution to emission reduction by measure
Amounts of emission reduction by action
LCS‐RNet Workshop, 2013
28
Application to Chinese cities, mainly on energy sectors
Scenario of Low‐Carbon Economy Development of Jilin
CHN‐JIL
2009/10
GHG emissions and their reduction by Scenario
Contribution to emission reduction by measure
Low Carbon Society Scenario towards 2030, GuangZhou
CHN‐GZ
5 Actions for GuangZhou LCS
5 Actions for GuangZhou
2013/05
GHG emissions and their reduction by action
y
LCS‐RNet Workshop, 2013
29
Application to Gyeonggi province, the most populous province in South Korea, surrounding Seoul, and 12 million population. Measures of LULC sector were emphasized.
Application to Khon
A
li i
Kh Kaen
K
province, the second‐largest of the north‐
i
h
dl
f h
h
eastern provinces of Thailand, where 1.8 million people live. Measures of fuel switching of transportation were emphasized. Khon Kaen towards Low Carbon Society
towards Low Carbon Society
THA KK
THA‐KK
2012/12
Low Carbon Development towards
Development towards 2030 in Gyeonggi
province, Korea
KOR‐GYG2030 2013/07
GHG emissions and their reduction by sector
GHG emissions and their reduction by action
GHG emission reduction by action
GHG reduction by action
LCS‐RNet Workshop, 2013
30
Application to City Putrajaya, a planned city, located 25 km south of Kuala Lumpur, that serves as the federal administrative centre of Malaysia. Coupled effects with 3 R and temperature mitigation policies were examined.
Application to Iskandar region, the main southern development corridor in Johor, Malaysia. The flag‐ship research project of our regional LCD study in Asia. Putrajaya
j y Green City 2025
y
Low Carbon Society Blueprint for Iskandar
Malaysia 2025
MYS‐ISK2025 MYS‐PTJ2030 2012/11
2011/03
GHG emissions and their reduction by sector
Actions in Putrajaya Green City 2025
GHG emissions and their reduction by sector
y
Actions in Iskandar LCS Blueprint GHG emission reduction by
reduction by action
Contribution to emission reduction by Action
LCS‐RNet Workshop, 2013
31
Application to India nation, ambitious actions towards 2 degree target
Design of Ahmedabad 8 actions towards LC society
Low Carbon Society Vision 2050, India
IND2050
A Roadmap towards Low Carbon Ahmedabad 2050
IND‐AMD2035
IND
AMD2035 2012/02
2009/11
GHG emissions and their reductions by action
GHG emissions and their reduction by action
Actions in LC Ahmedabad 2050, India
Actions in LCS Vision 2050, India
LCS‐RNet Workshop, 2013
32
Designing of Bhopal comprehensive 7 actions towards LC society India
Designing of Bhopal comprehensive 7 actions towards LC society, India
Low Carbon Society Low
Carbon Society
Bhopal, 2035
IND‐BPL2035
2011/10
GHG emissions and their reduction by action
A ti
Actions in Low Carbon Society, Bhopal i L
C b S i t Bh
l
LCS‐RNet Workshop, 2013
33
Designing of Vietnam and Bangladesh 11 actions towards LC society
Low Carbon Society Development towards 2030 in Low
Carbon Society Development towards 2030 in
Vietnam
VNM2030 Low Carbon Society Development towards 2025 y
p
in Bangladesh
BGD2035 2012/09
2012/11
GHG emissions and their reduction by sector
Actions in Low Carbon Society Development in Vietnam, 2030 Actions in Low Carbon Society Development A
ti
i L
C b S i t D l
t
towards 2025 in Bangladesh
GHG emissions and their reduction by sector
Contribution to emission reduction by y
sector
LCS‐RNet Workshop, 2013
34
2010/10
Design of Indonesia’s 5 actions and Thailand’s 9 actions towards LC society, focused on Energy sector
focused on Energy sector
Low Carbon Society Scenario toward 2050, Indonesia, Energy sector
IDN2050
IDN2050 Low Carbon Thailand towards
Thailand towards 2050 THA2030 2012/10
GHG emissions and their reduction by sector
y
GHG emissions and their reduction by sector
Actions in Low Carbon Thailand towards 2050 Actions in Low Carbon Society Scenario toward 2050 Indonesia Energy sector
toward 2050, Indonesia, Energy sector LCS‐RNet Workshop, 2013
35
Some extract of outputs from our recent Asian LCD studies
from our recent Asian LCD studies
Per capita emission: 0.6 to 13.4 tCO2, Percent reduction from BaU: 22% to 85%, Percent change from Base year: ‐73% to 657%
Base year information
Coutry
/Region
Region Scenario
code
code
Covered sectors
Year Population
(1000)
JPN‐KYT
CHN‐DLN
CHN
DLN
CHN‐DLN
CHN‐GZ
Energy, Waste, Forestry, Water
pollution, Industrial process
JPN‐KYT2030 Energy, Waste, Forestry
CHN‐DLN2020
CHN
DLN2020 Energy
CHN‐DLN2050 Energy
CHN‐GZ2030 Energy
THA‐KK
THA‐KK2050
THA‐KK
THA‐KK2030
KOR‐GYG
Shiga prefecture JPN‐SIG
total
GHG emission
per cap
(USD)
total
2000
1397
5884 Bill. JPY
40811
12877 ktCO2eq
2005
2007
2007
2005
1470
5721
5721
9600
6124 Bill. JPY
294 Bill. CNY
294 Bill. CNY
294 Bill. CNY
506 Bill. CNY
40365
6201
6201
6368
8015
46010
46010
98
Energy, Waste, AFOLU
2005
1750
2933 Mill. USD
1676
Energy, Waste, AFOLU
2005
1750
2933 Mill. USD
1676
KOR‐GYG2030 Energy, Land use
2005
10600
169 Tril. KRW
15348
MYS‐PTJ
MYS‐PTJ2030
Energy, Waste, Forestry
2007
49
1062 Mill. MYR
5653
MYS‐ISK
MYS‐ISK2025
Energy, Waste, Forestry
2005
1353
36 Bill. MYR
6944
IND
IND‐BPL
IND
BPL
IND2050
IND‐BPL2035
IND
BPL2035
Energy
Energy
2005
2005
1103000
1844
33 Tril. INR
70 Bill INR
70 Bill. INR
IND‐AMD IND‐AMD2035 Energy
2005
4700
IND‐AMD IND‐AMD2050 Energy
2005
VNM
BGD
IDN
IDN
THA
MYS
MYS
MYS
MYS
VNM2030
BGD2035
IDN2050CM1
20 0C
IDN2050CM2
THA2030
MYS2020EXT
MYS2020APS
MYS2030EXT
MYS2030APS
2005
2005
200
2005
2005
2005
2005
2005
2005
2005
Japan
JPN
JPN2050A
2000
Japan
JPN
JPN2050B
2000
Kyoto city
Dalian province
Dalian province
Dalian province
Guang Zhou city
Khon Kaen
province
Khon Kaen
province
Gyeonggi
province
Putrajaya
district
Iskandar
Malaysia
India
Bhopal city
Bhopal city
Ahamedabad
city
Ahamedabad
city
Vietnam
Bangladesh
Indonesia
d
i
Indonesia
Thailand
Malaysia
Malaysia
Malaysia
Malaysia
JPN‐SIG2030
GDP (GRP)
Energy, AFOLU
Energy, AFOLU
Energy
Energy
Energy
Energy, Waste, AFOLU
Energy, Waste, AFOLU
Energy, Waste, AFOLU
Energy, Waste, AFOLU
Energy, Waste, Forestry, Water
pollution, Industrial process
Energy, Waste, Forestry, Water
pollution, Industrial process
Target year information
Year
per
cap
(tCO2)
GHG emission
in BaU
GHG emission with Actions
( % change from base year)
9.2
2030
5.5
8.0
8.0
10.2
2030
2020
2050
2030
2372 ktCO2eq
1.4
2050
7525 (217.2)
2372 ktCO2eq
1.4
2030
7.1
(% change Number of
from BaU) Actions
6276 (‐51.3)
(‐56.3)
6 Actions
2007
(11.0)
4586 (‐42.8)
(286.4) 123490 (168.4)
(1315.9) 256250 (456.9)
(242.9)
165 (68.4)
(‐48.5)
((‐30.5)
30.5)
(‐60.7)
(‐50.9)
6 Actions
‐
‐
5 Actions
2009
2010
2010
2013
5173 (118.1)
(‐31.3)
3 Strategies
2013
5256 (121.6)
3585 (51.1)
(‐31.8)
3 Strategies
2013
2030
162 (114.7)
126 (67.2)
(‐22.1)
‐
2012
13.4
2030
4186 (530.4)
1780 (168.1)
(‐57.5)
12 Actions
2012
11 MtCO2eq
8.4
2025
31 (174.6)
19 (65.8)
(‐39.6)
12 Actions
2013
680
868
1292 MtCO2eq
3 MtCO2eq
1.2
14
1.4
2050
2035
7241 (460.4)
12 (380.0)
(380 0)
3114 (141.0)
7 (180.0)
(180 0)
(‐57.0)
((‐41.7)
41 7)
10 Actions
7 Actions
7 Actions
2009
2011
305 Bill. INR
1483
10 MtCO2eq
2.2
2035
44 (332.4)
25 (140.4)
(‐44.4)
8 Actions
2010
4700
305 Bill. INR
1483
83100
140000
2 9000
219000
219000
60991
26128
26128
26128
26128
818 Tril. VND
4 Tril. BDT
1787 Tril. IDR
8
il
1787 Tril. IDR
8017 Mill. THB
509 Bill. MYR
509 Bill. MYR
509 Bill. MYR
509 Bill. MYR
615
446
88
887
887
3391
5129
5129
5129
5129
126926
520 Trill. JPY
126926
520 Trill. JPY
ktCO2eq
ktCO2eq
ktCO2eq
MtCO2eq
76 MtCO2eq
664 ktCO2eq
10 MtCO2eq
14369 (11.6)
Year of
study
8897
177760
651460
336
2.2
2050
MtCO2eq
MtCO2eq
MtCO2eq
CO2
MtCO2eq
ktCO2eq
ktCO2eq
ktCO2eq
ktCO2eq
ktCO2eq
1.8
0.6
1.4
1.4
3.0
10.4
10.4
10.4
10.4
2030
2035
20 0
2050
2050
2030
2020
2020
2030
2030
39690
1144 MtCO2eq
9.0
2050
ー
(ー)
39690
1144 MtCO2eq
9.0
2050
ー
(ー)
151
88
299
299
185983
270710
270710
270710
270710
LCS‐RNet Workshop, 2013
86 (746.1)
601
310
4341
3
4341
563730
533575
533575
741247
741247
(298.0)
(252.4)
( 3 8)
(1351.8)
(1351.8)
(203.1)
(97.1)
(97.1)
(173.8)
(173.8)
25 (140.8)
(‐71.5)
8 Actions
2010
(‐36.9)
(‐42.1)
(
(‐47.9)
9)
(‐84.6)
(‐42.5)
(‐21.5)
(‐40.3)
(‐42.1)
(‐51.5)
11 Actions
‐
‐
‐
9Actions
‐
‐
‐
‐
2012
2010
20 0
2010
2010
2010
2013
2013
2013
2013
312 (‐72.8)
(ー)
12 Actions
2008
312 (‐72.8)
(ー)
12 Actions
2008
379
179
2263
670
324170
418709
318567
429007
359837
(151.0)
(104.1)
(6 6 9)
(656.9)
(124.1)
(74.3)
(54.7)
(17.7)
(58.5)
(32.9)
36
Some lessons when handling the actual LCD actions Some
lessons when handling the actual LCD actions
with model outputs
•
Importance of 1) showing explicitly and quantitavely the alternative scenarios, 2)
proposing several combinations of necessary actions/policies which satisfy the
prescribed
ib d ttargets,
t 3) iindicating
di ti ill
illustratively
t ti l th
the social,
i l economical
i l and
d fifinancial
i l
effects of the combinations.
•
Distinguishing the significancies of actions, 1) from a view point of symbolical –
ness, and, 2) from a view point of effectiveness. Identify them quantitatively with
the tools,
tools and recognize them
them.
•
Describing
g explicitly
p
y and q
quantitatively
y the role of constraints,, such as;;
1) Financial constraint, 2) Experts capacity constraint, and 3) Management
capacity constraint, in addition to 4) natural resource constraints.
•
Taking care the consistency between LCP-Actions and the whole socio-wide
design of the region.
LCS‐RNet Workshop, 2013
37
Fi l
Final remarks
k
1. “Low Carbon Society (LCS)” issue is not only related with energy supply and consumption systems but also essentially connected
supply and consumption systems but also essentially connected with socio‐economic planning. Real and quantitative integration is necessary in order to design Low Carbon Society.
2. From these points of view, we have developed tools in order to design quantitatively the visions of LCS and roadmaps towards
design quantitatively the visions of LCS and roadmaps towards LCS. We applied them to the real fields mainly in Asian region.
3. Within my presentation, I introduced some of them. Collaborating with Asian colleagues, we want to extend our approach to other regions acquiring experience improving and
approach to other regions, acquiring experience, improving and intensifying the applicability to real world. LCS‐RNet Workshop, 2013
38