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The Megatrend after Cloud Computing:
How to survive the Organic Computing Age
The Megatrend after Cloud Computing:
How to survive the Organic Computing Age
Jörg Osarek, Partner
www.its-people.de
November 2011
© its-people®, © Jörg Osarek 2011
1
The Megatrend after Cloud Computing:
How to survive the Organic Computing Age
Agenda
Liftoff
Introduction
its-people and Jörg Osarek
Welcome to the Cloud Computing Age: We live in a science fiction world!
Learning Curve
What we learned from the past
Where are we now?
Complexity wins and won't stop
The new Potion
We need a new Magic Potion to beat complexity
Sample Projects
Organic Computing / Organic Information Technology
3 Ingredients
3 Ingredients for our Potion
1) Computing Power , 2) Organic Architecture
3) Organic Thinking and Acting = our Survival Strategy
Survival Strategy
Business Survival Strategy: Organic Thinking and Acting
New Ancient thoughts on Control, Growth Maximazation and Competition
Broader Picture
Organic IT is only Part of the Q-GRINS Paradigm Shift
A New MindSet for the 21st Century
Time for the next level
© its-people®, © Jörg Osarek 2011
2
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Copyright its-people®
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The Megatrend after Cloud Computing:
How to survive the Organic Computing Age
Introduction Jörg Osarek
Cloud
Computing
www.its-people.de
Co-Founder & Partner
IT
Management
Game
Changing
Technologies
IT &
Business
Strategy
Bio inspired IT &
Organic Computing
IT Architecture
www.skilltower.de
Founder & CEO
© its-people®, © Jörg Osarek 2011
4
The Megatrend after Cloud Computing:
How to survive the Organic Computing Age
Welcome to the Cloud Computing Age
Fascinated with Science Fiction
(=Technology & Mythology since the 1970s)
Which fiction became reality?
Space ships leaving solar system
yes
Everybody has a planetwide walkie-talkie
yes
Space tourism
yes
Planetwide computer network
yes
Tablet computers
yes
Portable universal translator (rudimentary)
yes
Autostereoscopic Holograms
yes
Warp drive
not yet
Autonomous robots on distant planets
yes
Self conscious machines
not yet
...
Information Technology = Transformation Key Role
© its-people®, © Jörg Osarek 2011
© Jörg Osarek - own work from the 1970s
5
The Megatrend after Cloud Computing:
How to survive the Organic Computing Age
Welcome to the Cloud Computing Age
Today we live in a Science Fiction World called:
The Cloud Computing Age
While everybody is busy with that
I wondered:
What's the next
Megatrend after that?
With which Business Strategy
can you survive this coming age?
© its-people®, © Jörg Osarek 2011
© Jörg Osarek - own work from the 1970s
6
The Megatrend after Cloud Computing:
How to survive the Organic Computing Age
The Universe Learning Curve from the Past
Complexity
beats simplicity and it won't stop
growing!
Big
Bang
You are
Here today.
Sciences
Molecules
Quarks
and others
Atoms
DNA
Technology
Mythology
Culture
Life
© its-people®, © Jörg Osarek 2011
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The Megatrend after Cloud Computing:
How to survive the Organic Computing Age
The Universe Learning Curve from the Past
Complexity
beats simplicity and it won't stop
growing!
© its-people®, © Jörg Osarek 2011
What can save us
from the greedy
complexity monster?
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The Megatrend after Cloud Computing:
How to survive the Organic Computing Age
The new Magic Potion
What can save us
from the greedy
complexity monster?
A new Magic Potion that
enables systems to self
organize, self heal, self learn,
self optimize. Let's call it:
Organic IT or Bio inspired IT
© its-people®, © Jörg Osarek 2011
9
The Megatrend after Cloud Computing:
How to survive the Organic Computing Age
The new Magic Potion: widely used today
Organic Components used in our everyday lives:
■
E-Mail Spam Filters (Artificial Neural Networks)
■
Business-Intelligence-Systems (Data Mining)
■
OCR-Systems (Recognition of writing)
■
simple artificial characters and agents e.g. in Computer games (Bots)
■
Speech and speaker recognition (Service-Hotlines)
■
Systems that predict stock markets and the weather
■
Systems that pilot unmanned drone aircrafts
■
...
© its-people®, © Jörg Osarek 2011
10
The Megatrend after Cloud Computing:
How to survive the Organic Computing Age
The new Magic Potion: Example Projects
■
AnimatLab: IDE for ALife and
Neural Networks with Physics Simulation
■
Blue Brain project since 2005
(École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne, Switzerland) : Goal:
Constructing a complete virtual brain in a supercomputer.
Success: simulating a rat cortical column.
■
(Cat-)Brain Simulator from IBM funded by DARPA with 40 Million US$.
http://spectrum.ieee.org/computing/hardware/ibm-unveils-a-new-brain-simulator
■
IBM's Autonomic Computing Initiative
■
China Brain project: 2008-2011
■
Triops of the Artificial Life Lab:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Wx6DvjndhA
© its-people®, © Jörg Osarek 2011
11
The Megatrend after Cloud Computing:
How to survive the Organic Computing Age
The new Magic Potion: Example Projects
Priority Research Program of German Research Foundation
(DFG 1183) 2006-2011 (challenges for informatics regarding creation of technical systems from 2015)
■
■
■
■
■
Controlled Self Organization@complex networked systems
OC Workshop on ICAC 2011 in Karlsruhe
overlaps in main areas with IBM's Autonomic Computing
Bio inspired IT-Systems: Hardware and Software
Self-x-abilities
(self configuring, self optimizing, self healing, self protecting, self explaining)
■
■
■
Principles: Robustness, Flexibility, Adaptivity
uses Agents, Artificial Neural Networks, Genetic Algorithms, etc.
Observer/Controller Architectures
© its-people®, © Jörg Osarek 2011
Zentral
Mehrschichtig
Hierarchisch
http://www.amazon.de/dp/3034801297/
Verteilt
12
The Megatrend after Cloud Computing:
How to survive the Organic Computing Age
The new magic potion: Areas of use & rulers of the game
Areas of use
■ intelligent systems managing
traffic, energy, water, it systems
■ virtual receptionist
■ virtual butler
■ self conscious robots
■ ...
Control and market dominance
■ who controls the intelligence
building blocks dominates the
market while producing copies at
no costs (software)
© its-people®, © Jörg Osarek 2011
13
The Megatrend after Cloud Computing:
How to survive the Organic Computing Age
3 Ingredients for our Potion
Computing Power
Organic IT-Architecture
Survival Strategy:
Organic Thinking and Acting
© its-people®, © Jörg Osarek 2011
14
The Megatrend after Cloud Computing:
How to survive the Organic Computing Age
Ingredient 1: Computing Power
With the same increase in performance as computers a
standard passenger car today would be able to transport
the passengers
of the Oasis
of the Seas
as fast as
comet Halley
as many containers
as the
Colombo Express
© DannyCornelissen www.portpictures.nl - free to use for any purpose
© its-people®, © Jörg Osarek 2011
Computers after 25 years:
131.000 x RAM
12.500 x processing speed,
6,25 million x as many storage
+ many extras
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The Megatrend after Cloud Computing:
How to survive the Organic Computing Age
Ingredient 1: Computing Power
Für ca. 1.500,- €
2010/2011
Standard PC:
8GB RAM
4x3=12GHz
1TeraByte HD
1985
64KByte RAM
0,96MHz
166KByte
Floppy
© its-people®, © Jörg Osarek 2011
+ Extras like
WLAN, GPS,
Bluetooth,
2 cameras,
microphone,
(Video)Telephone
pos.transducer
Internet via 3G
Computers after 25 years:
131.000 x RAM
12.500 x processing speed,
6,25 million x as many storage
+ many extras
16
The Megatrend after Cloud Computing:
How to survive the Organic Computing Age
Ingredient 1: Computing Power
Für ca. 1.500,- €
2010/2011
Standard PC:
8GB RAM
4x3=12GHz
1TeraByte HD
1985
64KByte RAM
0,96MHz
166KByte
Floppy
© its-people®, © Jörg Osarek 2011
+ Extras like
WLAN, GPS,
Bluetooth,
2 cameras,
microphone,
(Video)Telephone
pos.transducer
Internet via 3G
2035
Standard ???Dev:
1 Mio. GB RAM
150.000 GHz
6,25 Mio Terabyte Space
???
Device
+ Extras???
Computers after 25 years:
131.000 x RAM
12.500 x processing speed,
6,25 million x as many storage
+ many extras
17
The Megatrend after Cloud Computing:
How to survive the Organic Computing Age
Ingredient 1: Computing Power
Is it possible to create nested networked organic components
on a nano scale with 100 billion (100Mrd.) neurons and
70 trillion (Billionen) real time connections?
© its-people®, © Jörg Osarek 2011
18
The Megatrend after Cloud Computing:
How to survive the Organic Computing Age
Ingredient 1: Computing Power
Is it possible to create nested networked organic components
on a nano scale with 100 billion (100Mrd.) neurons and
70 trillion (Billionen) real time connections?
Yes, it is possible.
Neural Do-it-yourself Nanotech-Network.
Designation: Alexander
Building Time: 9 Months
We see 7 billion units
up and running
today on our planet.
Going Live: 07.07.2011
Status of training:
amazing neural abilities.
© its-people®, © Jörg Osarek 2011
19
The Megatrend after Cloud Computing:
How to survive the Organic Computing Age
Ingredient 2: Organic IT Architecture
Blueprint for an scalable, elastic Organic Cloud Architecture
© its-people®, © Jörg Osarek 2011
20
The Megatrend after Cloud Computing:
How to survive the Organic Computing Age
Ingredient 2: Organic IT Architecture
Blueprint for an scalable, elastic Organic Cloud Architecture
possible Development process
© its-people®, © Jörg Osarek 2011
21
The Megatrend after Cloud Computing:
How to survive the Organic Computing Age
Ingredient 2: Organic IT Architecture
Demo Time:
Human Pilot vs. Artificial Neural Network
on the classic Lunar Lander Game
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4GNzFAbk10A
© its-people®, © Jörg Osarek 2011
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The Megatrend after Cloud Computing:
How to survive the Organic Computing Age
Ingredient 3: Survival Strategy: Organic Thinking & Acting
Two Questions first:
■
Can we fully control our complex
traditional IT systems today?
© its-people®, © Jörg Osarek 2011
23
The Megatrend after Cloud Computing:
How to survive the Organic Computing Age
Ingredient 3: Survival Strategy: Organic Thinking & Acting
Two Questions first:
■
Can we fully control our complex
traditional IT systems today?
■
So, do you believe we can fully
control those new dynamic, self
organizing, self healing, self
evolving and self defending
organic systems? (At least we
do have observer controller
architectures, right?)
© its-people®, © Jörg Osarek 2011
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The Megatrend after Cloud Computing:
How to survive the Organic Computing Age
Ingredient 3: Survival Strategy: Organic Thinking & Acting
Will we be able to control
organic information technology?
My personal opinion:
Life
finds
a way!
DinoEggs: By de:User:He-ba-mue (uploaded by author) [CC-BY-SA-2.5 (www.creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.5)], via Wikimedia Commons
By Jakub Hałun (Own work) , CC-BY-SA-3.0 (www.creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/) , via Wikimedia Commons
© its-people®, © JörgAllosaurus:
Osarek 2011
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The Megatrend after Cloud Computing:
How to survive the Organic Computing Age
Ingredient 3: Survival Strategy: Organic Thinking & Acting
Facing these
dangers
we have accept the challenge
Stop every progress in
our lives immediately
and prepare with a
2
simple
and return to the caves.
organic thinking and
options acting strategy.
© its-people®, © Jörg Osarek 2011
26
The Megatrend after Cloud Computing:
How to survive the Organic Computing Age
Business Survival Strategy: Organic Thinking and Acting
Exchange principles that don't work any longer
Less...
(Illusion of)
Control
More...
► Guide &
Influence
Growth & Profit ► Robustness,
Reserves,
Maximization
Flexibility
Reckless
Competition
© its-people®, © Jörg Osarek 2011
► Long Term
Cooperation
27
The Megatrend after Cloud Computing:
How to survive the Organic Computing Age
Organic IT is only Part of the Q-GRINS Paradigm Shift
The Q-GRINS key disciplines splice together
■
■
■
■
■
■
Quantum Physics
Genetics / Biotech
Robotics
Informatics
Nano Technology
Space Technology
Additional evolutionary changes happen in software,
hardware and the other Q-GRINS areas
© its-people®, © Jörg Osarek 2011
© Mike Kiev - Fotolia.com
28
The Megatrend after Cloud Computing:
How to survive the Organic Computing Age
Organic IT is only Part of the Q-GRINS Paradigm Shift
In the 21st century there will be much more
massive change than in 20th century:
Technology changes life itself and its evolution!
We cross many natural borders while using yet
unknown leverages. This multiplies chances+risks.
To manage those new challenges mankind has to
move to the next mental level:
© its-people®, © Jörg Osarek 2011
29
The Megatrend after Cloud Computing:
How to survive the Organic Computing Age
Organic IT is only Part of the Q-GRINS Paradigm Shift
The next mental Level for mankind in 21st century:
Principles of the 21st century mindset:
■ organic thinking (guide, reserves, cooperation)
■ boldness to develop and use new ideas
■ sustainability & purpose
■ wisely preserve our important heritage.
Let's subscribe to this
amazing adventure today!
© its-people®, © Jörg Osarek 2011
Less...
More...
(Illusion of)
Control
Guide &
Influence
Growth & Profit
Maximization
Robustness,
Reserves,
Flexibility
Reckless
Competition
Long Term
Cooperation
30
The Megatrend after Cloud Computing:
How to survive the Organic Computing Age
its-people®
Professionell
Partnerschaftlich
Innovativ
© its-people®, © Jörg Osarek 2011
31