TOD’s as a financing tool: - why TODs, how does value capture work and can it apply to Indian cities? By Peter Newman Curtin University Sustainability Policy (CUSP) Institute Fremantle, Australia India’s own transit city National City Lines removed transit in 44 cities....US now hitting the wall on carbased cities…. The view through the windscreen In dense cities the car can dominate very quickly…. Atlanta Houston Denver San Francisco San Diego Phoenix Los Angeles Washington Chicago New York Calgary Toronto Perth Melbourne Vancouver Brisbane Sydney Ottawa Montreal Riyadh Wellington Geneva Oslo Brussels Frankfurt Rome Hamburg Nantes Stockholm Marseille Zurich Ruhr Lyon Newcastle Munich Vienna Stuttgart Glasgow Paris Dusseldorf Copenhagen Berne Bologna Graz Tel Aviv Madrid Athens London Sapporo Milan Berlin Amsterdam Manchester Bangkok Kuala Lumpur Johannesbur Helsinki Tokyo Singapore Sao Paulo Osaka Taipei Seoul Curitiba Prague Budapest Barcelona Cape Town Harare Tehran Tunis Hong Kong Manila Cracow Jakarta Beijing Bogota Guangzhou Cairo Chennai Shanghai Mumbai Dakar Ho Chi Minh MJ per person Private Passenger Transport Energy Use per Person, 1995 120000 100000 80000 60000 American Australia/New Zealand Canadian Western European High Income Asian Eastern European Middle Eastern African Low Income Asian Latin American Chinese 40000 20000 0 Cities Ho Chi Minh City Mumbai Hong Kong Cairo Seoul Taipei Manila Barcelona Shanghai Jakarta Bangkok Chennai Beijing Guangzhou Bogota Tehran Dakar Osaka Singapore Tunis Tokyo Madrid Sao Paulo Milan Brussels Tel Aviv Sapporo Cape Town Athens Vienna Bologna London Stuttgart Cracow Marseille Kuala Lumpur Amsterdam Berlin Rome Munich Geneva Manchester Budapest Dusseldorf Prague Frankfurt Paris Lyon Zurich Riyadh Berne Hamburg Newcastle Graz Ruhr Nantes Harare Glasgow Helsinki Montreal Ottawa Curitiba Johannesburg Stockholm Copenhagen Toronto Los Angeles Oslo Wellington Vancouver Calgary San Francisco Sydney New York Chicago Denver San Diego Washington Melbourne Perth Phoenix Brisbane Houston Atlanta Urban density (persons per ha) Urban Density, 1995 (Persons/Ha) 400 350 300 250 200 American Australia/New Zealand Canadian Western European High Income Asian Eastern European Middle Eastern African Low Income Asian Latin American Chinese 150 100 50 0 Cities Fuel Use Decreases as Density Increases New agenda: TODs around rail, eg Chatswood in Sydney • Similarly Portland streetcar partnership Why TODs…. • 50% less car use for people living there. • Equity for car-less. • 20% more household income (one car less) that is spent locally. • Transport options are running out based around cars… • TODs can help fund rail options….in Indian cities too? What is happening in global transport? • The peaking of car use… • The rise and rise of rail… Car use in cities is declining - in all developed cities, - starting to plateau in emerging cities? See Newman P and Kenworthy J (2011) ‘Understanding Peak Car Use: The Demise of Automobile Dependence’ World Transport Policy and Practice, 17(2): 32-42 Percentage average increase in car VKT per capita Car use growth trends in developed cities from 1960 to 2005 using Global Cities Database. 45 41.8 40 35 30 25.7 25 22.9 20 15 10 5.1 5 0 1960-1970 1970-1980 1980-1990 1995-2005 Passenger-kilometres by private car and light trucks, 1990 – 2009, index (1990 = 100) 160 150 Germany 140 Australia 130 France 120 United Kingdom United States 110 Japan 100 90 Oil price shock and start of crisis 80 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Peak Car Use - US cities... • First declines for 100 years… • Increasing transit use – 6.5% in past year. • Cities coming back in… First Quarter patronage on selected US light rail systems 14.0 12.0 10.0 8.0 Million Portland, Oregon Los Angeles, California Newark, New Jersey 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 AUSTRALIAN CITIES - Per Capita Private Travel by City '000 Kms per capita by car, commercial vehicle and motorcycle 15.00 14.00 13.00 12.00 11.00 10.00 9.00 8.00 7.00 6.00 Sydney Melbourne Brisbane Perth Adelaide Canberra Hobart Darwin Source: BTRE (2011): Australian Infrastructure Statistics Yearbook 2008-09 2007-08 2006-07 2005-06 2004-05 2003-04 2002-03 2001-02 2000-01 1999-00 1998-99 1997-98 1996-97 1995-96 1994-95 1993-94 1992-93 1991-92 1990-91 1989-90 1988-89 1987-88 1986-87 1985-86 1984-85 1983-84 1982-83 1981-82 1980-81 1979-80 1978-79 1977-78 1976-77 Kms per Capita Per Capita Public Transport Travel by City 2.00 Source: BTRE (2011): Australian Infrastructure Statistics Yearbook 1.80 1.60 1.40 1.20 Sydney Melbourne 1.00 Brisbane Perth 0.80 Adelaide Canberra 0.60 Hobart 0.40 Darwin 0.20 0.00 Why is this happening? 1. Density is going up after 100 years of decline…. Small density increases can have big impacts on car dependence TOD’s are happening…. 2. Peaking in traffic speed relative to transit 1.0 0.94 Rela ve speed of public trasnsport to road traffic 0.9 1995 2005 0.84 0.84 0.78 0.8 0.75 0.69 0.7 0.6 0.88 0.86 0.57 0.55 0.57 0.57 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 US ci es Canadian ci es Australian ci es European ci es Singapore Hong Kong Impact of Road Building on Delay – America’s 20 Biggest Cities – ZERO! DELAY Freeway Miles ONE LANE people per hr: Freeway 2,500 Busway 5000 LRT 10-20,000 Train 50,000 Restoring ‘place’, eg River in Seoul, buried under freeway ⑥ｰ1 Cheonggyecheon Area after Restoration (http://www.metro.seoul.kr/kor2000/chungaehome/en/seoul/2sub.htm/) 3. Public transport increases lead to exponential declines in car use… Exponential growth can work for us… 4. Peak oil has happened… Climate policy: Oil's tipping point has passed Nature 481,433–435 26 January 2012 5. Culture is changing Annual vehicle miles per driver by age, USA, 1995, 2001, 2009 Young people are connected without cars… ‘Cars are so yesterday: young and rich leave guzzlers behind’ And increased: Public transit 100% Biking 122%, and Walking by 37% From 2001 to 2009, car use by 16 to 34 year olds decreased from 10,300 miles to 7900 miles per capita – a drop of 23 per cent. In Central London, traffic fell by 19 per cent between 2000 and 2009. The Times Nov 6, 2012 ‘Supporters of “PeakCar” theory see a future in which the inner cities are given over to pedestrians, cyclists and public transport, and café culture replaces car culture ….’ 6. Its more economic. Agglomeration economies….and avoidable costs CUSP paper: each new fringe block 1. Is subsidised by $85,000 in infrastructure. 2. Costs $250,000 extra in transport costs over 50 years. 3. Produces 4.4 tonnes/yr more in greenhouse gases, and 4. Health is better and productivity 6% better www.sustainability.curtin.edu.au What about the emerging cities? Shanghai 1990 and 2010 1990’s - Flirting with the American model… Rapidly filled… So what can be done? Shanghai Metro…12 lines, 273 stations, 420km covering 80% of metro area… Built mostly since 2000; carries 8 million per day Global growth now in rail… • 82 Chinese cities building metros and high speed rail between cities • 14 Indian cities building metros • Middle east cities building rail for first time Delhi Metro 10%/year car use will hit the wall soon…? The global turn-around…. 16.0 14.0 VKT/capita (thousands) 12.0 10.0 US OECD 8.0 Non-OECD World 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 2000 2010 2030 2050 How do we fund quality public transport…? Southern Railway Carrying 65,000 per day cf 14,000 on buses. 19% growth in past year! 40,000 0 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 iANNUAL RAIL BOARDINGS ('000s: Train and Tram) 70,000 Southern Line 60,000 50,000 Northern Line 30,000 Adelaide Perth 20,000 10,000 YEAR The next phase in Perth…. Perth: 21st Century City Focus on the 13 big development projects in Perth and show how they can be: • Leading demonstrations of low carbon, renewable, green development • Dense, mixed use centres made viable through light rail • Financed by a new private-public mechanism that captures the value inherent in green, transit oriented development…. Committee for Perth report... Public Transport Funding – Value of Public Transport Transit (aggregate) Median unit dw elling prices over 25 years Transit suburbs versus non-transit suburbs No n-transit (aggregate) Trendline (transit) Trendline (no n-transit) 900,000 800,000 700,000 600,000 M edian 500,000 price ($ ) 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 Corview (2010) 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 Integrated Transport TRANSPORT LAND USE VALUE CAPTURE FINANCE Value capture through building TOD’s a. Through selling government land, eg Copenhagen Metro sold a military base, Canberra will sell a Showground site. PPP Value capture through building TOD’s b. Through government buying land around stations and developing it themselves, eg Hong Kong, Tokyo, Osaka…. Not PPP. Value capture through building TOD’s c. Through government capturing private land value uptake in rail catchment, eg Australia…. Probably PPP. Shared Value Capture Funding Model 1. Accessibility benefits analysis. 2. Land value data collection of the difference between those areas varying in accessibility. 3. Hypothecate land value taxation increases due to land values increasing in a special fund. 4. Delivery through a redevelopment authority. 5. Can do in a PPP through private bids to achieve public goals. Can be off-balance sheet. Example – Doncaster rail, Melbourne SNAMUTS model showing public transport accessibility - BEFORE SNAMUTS model showing public transport accessibility - AFTER Infrastructure Australia’s first package – 55% urban rail….historic! Requires TOD’s and alternative funding options…. Can it work in India? What is the best model? AusAID Project 2013/15 – ‘Stemming Car Dependency and Improving Transport Options in Indian Cities’, Pune & Bangalore Partnership • CUSP, Curtin University – 2 Indian PhD’s • Arup • Centre for Environment Education- CEE • Parisar Sanrakshan • College of Architecture for Women and Dr. BN College of Architecture • Institute of Urban Transport (India) • Ministry of Urban Development • Karnataka Directorate of Urban Land Transport • Indian Institute for Human Settlements (IIHS) Next Steps Deliberative Democracy We need your help…. [email protected]