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Why Don’t Young People Vote More? A Civic Inquiry Activity John Zola, with the assistance of Peter Levine, Diana Hess and Jaye Zola Handouts: •Copies of each of the data sets for each student or pairs of students. Data Sets #3 and #4 require on-­‐line access. The others (Data Sets #1-­‐11) are described in Appendix #1 of this lesson plan and each has instructions for photocopying. •Civic Inquiry Data Retrieval Sheet (multiple copies for each student) •Making A Warranted Claim for each student NOTE TO THE TEACHER: This lesson plan has sufficient data to allow students to make warranted claims about why young adults don’t vote more. However, there is always the option to provide additional data sets or to have students research this question to bring more information to bear on the inquiry question. Introduction: Brief suggested text for introducing the topic of young adult voting. Embellish as you see fit with graphics, cartoons, and/or short youtube videos. A. Active participation by citizens is crucial for a healthy democracy and one of the foremost ways of participating is to vote in elections. B. The history of “young adult” voting only goes back to 1972. That was the first year that 18 year olds, as opposed to 21 year olds, were allowed to vote in all elections. Much of the motivation for lowering the voting age was connected to the Vietnam War still raging at the time. Young adults said that they were old enough to be drafted to fight in the war, but not old enough to vote for the legislators who sent them to war. They were old enough to get a drink in many states, but not old enough to vote. C. When the 26th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution was officially ratified on July 1, 1971 politicians were both excited and nervous about this new portion of the electorate. In fact, there were movies about young people taking over the government and kicking out the “old” politicians. D. The presidential election of 1972 was the first that included those 18 and older. In that election “only” 50% of the eligible young voters showed up at the polls. This was a shock to many. Why didn’t more young people come out to have an impact on the election? E. Since then, young adults, either defined as 18-­‐24 or 18-­‐29, have been amongst the LEAST likely to show up at the voting booth. The MOST likely are those above the age of 60-­‐65. WHY MIGHT THAT BE? F. You can imagine that politicians, when running for office or considering legislation, might take the concerns of young adults a bit less seriously because there might be little cost to them for doing so. 1 G. Low voter turnout isn’t the only issue related to young adult voting patterns. Young adults don’t vote in a uniform pattern. For example, young adult females tend to vote at higher percentages than young adult males. Why’s that? Or, in the 2012 presidential election, Black or African American young adults voted more than their “white” counterparts and THEY voted more than Hispanic young adults. Why might that be? And young adults vote at different rates in different states in the country! 1. Introduce the specific civic inquiry question: Why don’t young adults vote more? Explain that this activity will focus on voting patterns and why they might be as they are. Next, brainstorm student ideas about what “inquiry” is. Explain that “inquiry” is when (in this case) students explore a question related to a civic issue and, by examining data, propose well reasoned answers or explanations for that question. Finally, remind them that a fact of voting in the United States is that young adults, from 18-­‐ either 24 or 29, just don’t vote as much as other groups in society AND they don’t even vote in any sort of consistent pattern as a group. That is the focus of our work. 2. Given the introductory information, at this point ask that EACH student in the class to write down ONE REASON they think young adults don’t vote more. Share with a partner, being sure to give at least one reason you came up with this answer. Begin by posting student hypotheses on the board or poster paper. At some point, ask whether anyone has one that is different. Post until ideas are exhausted. Post and preserve these so students can refer back to them during the activity. Possible hypotheses for “Why young adults don’t vote more?” •Some young people aren’t very well informed and don’t know what the issues are. •Some young people feel powerless and don’t believe their votes would make any difference •apathy…who cares anyway! •Voting is inconvenient and takes a long time. Some young people have less time than others. They are too busy! •Politicians don’t ask for young people’s votes. •There is no point to voting—the same people always win anyway. •Politicians are racist or ignore minority voters •The political process turns off young people…they don’t see themselves in the process •It doesn’t matter who you vote for, nothing changes and it’s all about money, anyway 3. The next step of the Inquiry Activity is to begin to explore possible answers to the inquiry question by examining various sources of data about the topic. Introduce the data packet. Explain that the “work” of the activity is to develop 2 “warranted claims” that provide answers to the inquiry question. A “warranted” claim is one that is focused on answering the question, is supported by solid evidence, and is resistant to (or has taken into account) counter claims. (POST THIS DEFINITION ON THE BOARD OR HAVE ON A POSTER) To develop a warranted claim, you need to learn more about the topic of young adult voting and begin deciding what are good explanations for why some young adults DO vote, why others don’t, and why other groups might vote more or less. By the end of the activity, EACH student will be expected to come up with his or her own “best answer” to the inquiry question and present it as a “warranted claim.” 4. The actual “inquiry” process takes individual “data sets” and subjects them to these steps. A “data set” is one “hunk” of information. It might be charts and graphs, a video snippet on young adult voting, an expert opinion on young adult voting, etc. It is important that in this entire process, students are not seeking consensus on an agreed upon answer to the Inquiry Question or to the prompts that are used below with each of the data sets. See Appendix #1 for the sequence of data sets and specific inquiry questions to use with them. A. Distribute Civic Inquiry Data Set #1: Voter Turnout By Age: 1972-­
2012. Briefly introduce it and then give time for students to read/view it, keeping in mind the inquiry question they are trying to answer. B. As partners, talk about what the data set is “telling” you about the voting behavior of young adults. What reasons can you extract? What evidence supports a particular reason? Try to always link reasons with supporting evidence as this will help you once you start making a “warranted claim” that answers the inquiry question. To assist students in keeping track of idea, distribute the Civic Inquiry Data Retrieval Sheet and ask students to fill it in as they work with each piece of data.. C. As a class, report out what you have found re. how this piece of data helps “answer” the inquiry question. What are possible reasons why young adults vote as they do? What evidence supports these reasons? As a class, look at the list of hypotheses on the wall…which, if any, does this data set support? Help to refute? Make you want to change or revise? Be prepared to share your ideas with specific references back to the data set with the rest of the class. D. Be sure that students are focusing on which hypotheses are seeming stronger or more compelling and which are not. E. Move to Data Set #2: A Quick Look at Presidential Elections and Current Issues” and repeat the process. Continue with each of the pieces of data listed in Appendix #1. It is important that you present all of the data sets to the class!! F. As you move through the data sets with large group discussions on each focusing on the hypotheses on the wall, there should be movement toward a sense of which (of several) are more compelling and which might need to be discarded or significantly revised. The goal is NOT to narrow the process to 3 one, single hypothesis. Rather, it is to be sure that students are “warranting” their answers (i.e. hypotheses) to the inquiry question with the data they are exploring. NEW hypotheses might well crop up, too. NOTE: This is a highly “iterative” process in that students are gradually building a knowledge base about young adult voting which they are using to evaluate the initial hypotheses they generated to answer the question of what accounts for why young adults don’t vote more. Patience and persistence in question asking and referring back to the data are crucial. The bulk of the data, if not otherwise noted, comes from CIRCLE (Center for Inquiry and Research in Civic Learning and Engagement) which is one of the pre-­‐eminent organizations examining voting patterns and civic education in the United States. They are a non-­‐partisan organization. 5. Once the class has worked through the available data sets, ask pairs of students to discuss with each other the hypothesis, or answer to the inquiry question, that is most compelling to them. Make sure they share specific reasons for their choice and evidence that supports those reasons. Begin a large group discussion by asking students to quickly report out their chosen “answer.” As answers are suggested, push for solid reasons and evidence and analysis of that evidence. What might be a counter explanation? Is the evidence more or less solid? This is a discussion where ideas are refined and tested. 6. Time to begin the process of having students individually develop warranted claims that address the question of “Why don’t young adults vote more?” Distribute the Making a Warranted Claim handout to guide this process. 7. Finally, focus on how students could communicate their findings to different audiences. First, brainstorm who might be interested in this information and their findings (e.g. fellow students, representatives of local political parties, local advocacy groups.) Next, brainstorm ways of communicating their information (e.g. powerpoints, youtube video, letters to the editor of local media, on appropriate social media outlets.) NOTE: This lesson “inquires” into the question of what accounts for patterns of voting by young adults. The next step in civic education is for students to “deliberate” on the public policy implications and avenues related to young adult voters. One question is whether we, as a society, want young adults to be more actively engaged in voting. If the answer is “yes,” then there are a number of potential, and controversial policy options that can be explored. __________________________________________________________________________________ 4 Appendix #1 Civic Inquiry Activity Data Set Explanations Data Set #1: Voter Turnout By Age: 1972-­2012 FILE NAME: Civic Inquiry Data Set 1 Inquiry Question: What patterns do you see here? Talk about those patterns and think about factors that might help explain the patterns. Logistics: Print copies for each student Data Set #2: Presidential Election Timeline FILE NAME: Civic Inquiry Data Set 2 Inquiry Question: Examine the timeline and see what each of you knows about the different presidential elections and related issues. Can you see any relationships between the ups and downs in Data Set #1 and the various political events shown here? What more do you want to know? Logistics: Print copies for each student Data Set #3: New York Times article: “Boomers, Millenials, and the Ballot Box” http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/29/booming/voter-­‐turnout-­‐for-­‐boomers-­‐and-­‐
millennials.html Inquiry Question: Read the article and discuss what you think might be new information that helps you think about the topic of young adult voting patterns. What helps support some of the existing hypotheses and what calls any of them into question. What more do you know now and what more do you WANT to know? Does this mean there isn’t a “problem” with young adult voting? Logistics: Instruct participants to go to the above URL to access this news story OR go to nyt.com and search Voter Turnout for Boomers and Millennials Data Set #4: State by State Young Adult Voting Rates This is from the website: http://www.civicyouth.org -­‐-­‐ find the map of the United States in the images (second button) and then mouse over the map to see vote totals. 5 Inquiry Question: Take a look at your state and see what the youth voting rates is. How does it compare to what you already know nationally? Take a look at a couple of other states that might be similar or different from your own. What do you learn? What sense can you make of the different or similar rates? Logistics: Go to the above website. The first “button” below the window accesses a map of the US that students can mouse over to see voter turnout by individual state. Data Set #5, #6, and #7: Gender (Data Set 5), Race (Data Set 6), Educational Attainment (Data Set 7) and Youth Voting FILE NAMES: CivicInquiry Data Set 5, CivicInquiry Data Set 6, CivicInquiry Data Set 7 Inquiry Questions: Sequentially, look at these graphs and narratives and ask yourself what might account for these different rates of voting associated with these characteristics. Can you see connections among the data? How do these data sets interact with the various hypotheses? Logistics: Be sure to print those that are two pages. Use these sequentially. Data Set #8: Personal Financial Situation/Economic Well Being FILE NAME: Civic Inquiry Data Set 8 Inquiry Questions: What impacts might shifting perceptions of the economy have on young adult voting patterns? Do you see any connections to earlier graphs? Logistics: Print as is Data Set #9: What do young adult voters say about voting and what influences them to vote? FILE NAME: Why Young People Don’t Vote Inquiry Questions: What are young adult voters saying about their own choices and what influences them to vote? How does this help you think about young adult voting rates? Logistics: This is two pages Data Set #10: Young Adult Voting in Battleground States FILE NAME: Civic Inquiry Data Set 10 6 Inquiry Questions: What does this map help you better understand? How important do you think this factor is in voter turnout? Note that there might be a need to explain the Electoral College role in determining the President and that makes a state a potential “battleground” one. Logistics: Photocopy as is Data Set #11: Voter Turnout Over the Course of One’s Life FILE NAME: Civic Inquiry Data Set 11 Inquiry Questions: Examine this final piece of data. What does it say about the long term nature of voting patterns? Is low voter turnout necessarily a problem? Logistics: This is one page. Photocopy as is Data Set #12: For ‘Millennials,’ a Tide of Cynicism and a Partisan Gap FILE NAME: Civic Inquiry Data Set 12 Inquiry Question: In what ways do the stories of these young voters affect your current thinking about the Inquiry Question? Do the study results reported support and of the existing hypotheses you are considering? Logistics: Print copies for each student 7 DATA SET #1 The Youth Vote 1972 -­ 2012 CIRCLE Staff May 10, 2013 2012 Youth Voter Turnout Rate When we discuss the role of young voters in the outcomes of an election, we can describe their impact in several ways. The first and perhaps most useful measure of young voters’ influence is their turnout, or the percentage of citizens who did vote. Graph 1 shows the voter turnout rate for young people (ages 18-­‐24 and 18-­‐29) versus older voters (ages 25 plus and 30 plus). Graph 1: Voter Turnout by Age, 1972-2012
80%
70%
66.3%
60%
64.8%
45.0%
50%
40%
Source: Census CPS Nov. 1972-2012
41.2%
30%
20%
10%
0%
1972
1976
1980
18-24 Citizen
1984
1988
1992
25 and older Citizen
1996
2000
18-29 Citizen
2004
2008
2012
30 and older Citizen
Source: CIRCLE’s tabulations from the CPS Nov. Voting and Registration Supplements, 1972-­‐2012 Youth voter turnout rose significantly in 2004 and continued to rise in 2008, and young people comprised the age group that exhibited the greatest increase in voter turnout between 2000 and 2008. In 2012, however, youth turnout fell by about six points, while the turnout of people 30 and older declined by 0.7 points overall. See Table 1 for the changes by age group. The turnout for young people (both under-­‐30s and under-­‐25s) has only been lower in three presidential elections—1988, 1996, and 2000—since the voting age was lowered to 18 in 1972. Table 1: Voter Turnout Among Citizens November 2000, 2004, 2008, and 2012
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
All Ages
8 2000
40%
59%
68%
70%
60%
2004
49%
62%
70%
71%
64%
2008
51%
62%
69%
70%
64%
2012
45%
60%
68%
72%
62%
Percentage Point Difference
between 2008 and 2012
-6
-2
-1
+2
-2
DATA SET #2 A Quick Look at Presidential Elections and Current Issues Source: http://www.uspresidentelection.us/president_summary.php?year=1972_2012&cha
rt=pres&rank=Y 9 DATA SET: 5 Voter Turnout Among Young Women and Men in the 2012 Presidential Election By: CIRCLE Staff May 2013 In 2012, 45.0% of young people (ages 18-­‐29) voted in the Presidential election, marking a six percentage-­‐point drop since 2008. While this rate was lower than those observed in 2004 and 2008, it was still higher than in the elections of 1996 and 2000. This fact sheet presents information on voter turnout for women and men.
Graph 1: Voter Turnout Presidential Elections Ages 18-29 by Gender
70%
60%
50%
55.9%
49.8%
49.3%
45.7%
54.8%
40%
47.7%
47.1%
54.3%
51.1%
52.4%
42.6%
41.8%
30%
48.6%
42.8%
49.6%
46.9%
54.9%
36.4%
37.7%
1996
Males
2000
45.5%
47.2%
2004
2008
41.5%
20%
10%
0%
1972
1976
1980
1984 Females
1988
1992
2012
Source: CIRCLE’s Tabulations from the CPS November Voting and Registration Supplements, 1972-­‐2012. Since 1972, when 18-­‐ and 19-­‐year-­‐olds won the right to vote, young women have been more likely than young men to vote. In 2012, this gap decreased by one percentage point compared to 2008, from approximately eight percentage points to seven percentage points (see Figure 1). 10 DATA SET: 6 Voter Turnout among Young Women, by Race/Ethnicity 2008 marked the first time since the voting age was lowered that young African-­‐American women showed higher turnout than white women. Despite the turnout decline among all young women, African-­‐American young women continued to vote at the highest rate among young voters in 2012. Young African-­‐American women had the highest turnout of any gender and racial or ethnic group of young people. However, voter turnout among young African-­‐American women decreased by nearly four percentage points between 2008 and 2012. Young white females’ turnout decreased by seven percentage points. 2008 marked the highest turnout for Asian females and Latina youth since group specific data became available. However, both Latina and Asian females saw a decrease in turnout in 2012. Asian females saw the biggest decrease in turnout since 2008 for any gender and racial or ethnic group, with a change of nine percentage points, while Latinas saw a decrease of four percentage points. Figure 3: Presidential Election Turnout for 18-29 Females by Race
70%
60%
60.1%
50%
48.7%
40%
40.0%
39.9%
30%
20%
10%
0%
1972
1976
1980
1984
1988
1992
1996
2000
2004
2008
2012
Female White, Non-Hispanics
Female African American, Non-Hispanics
Latinas
Female Asian, Non-Hispanics
Source: CIRCLE Analysis of Census Current Population Survey (CPS) November Supplement, 2012
11 Voter Turnout among Young Men, by Race/Ethnicity Young women have consistently voted at a higher rate than men, and the difference is particularly notable between young white females and young white males. Among young men, African-­‐American men voted at the highest rate (46.4%), while Asian men voted at the lowest rate (32.6%). Yet, like women, all young men saw a decrease in turnout. The biggest decreases were among young White men and African-­‐American men (both with a six percentage point decrease). Figure 4: Presidential Election Turnout among 18-29 for Males, by Race
& Ethnicity
70%
60%
46.4%
50%
43.4%
33.9%
40%
30%
32.6% Asian
20%
10%
0%
1972
1976
1980
1984
1988
1992
1996
2000
2004
2008
2012
Male White, Non-Hispanics
Male, African-American, Non-Hispanic
Latinos
Male Asian, Non-Hispanics
Source: CIRCLE Analysis of Census Current Population Survey (CPS) November Supplement, 2012
12 DATA SET: 7 Voter Turnout Among Young Women by Educational Attainment i Consistent with trends observed for all young people, young women with higher levels of education are more likely to vote. Between 2008 and 2012, the gap in turnout between young women with less than a high school diploma and young women who have completed college remained consistent, with a 44 percentage point difference in turnout. Figure 6: Turnout Among Females by Education, Presidential Elections
90%
80%
70%
67.3%
60%
50%
53.6%
40%
33.9%
30%
23.2%
20%
10%
0%
1972
1976
1980
1984
1988
1992
1996
2000
2004
2008
Female Less than HS
Female HS Grad
Female Some College
Female BA or More
2012
Source: CIRCLE Analysis of Census Current Population Survey (CPS) November Supplement, 2012
i
Youth without college experience are defined as those who have no experience
attending technical/vocational programs, associate’s degree programs, or four year
college programs. This group includes youth who have completed a high school
education or GED and those who have not. The college attending group is
compromised of young people who have been enrolled in college in the past or are
currently enrolled.
13 Voter Turnout Among Young Males by Educational Attainment Like their female counterparts, young men with more formal education voted at higher levels in 2012; however, all young men, regardless of educational attainment, decreased their turnout in 2012. The biggest decrease (eight percentage points) was among young men who had graduated from high school but not gone on to post-­‐secondary education. . The gender gap was about the same among young men and women with and without college experience (five percentage points compared to four percentage points, respectively; see figure 8).
Figure 7: Turnout Among Males by Education, Presidental Elections
90%
80%
70%
64.1%
60%
50%
48.1%
40%
30%
28.7%
22.4%
20%
10%
0%
1972
1976
1980
Male Less than HS
1984
1988
Male HS Grad
1992
1996
2000
2004
Male Some College
2008
2012
Male BA or More
Source: CIRCLE Analysis of Census Current Population Survey (CPS) November Supplement, 2012
i
Youth without college experience are defined as those who have no experience
attending technical/vocational programs, associate’s degree programs, or four year
college programs. This group includes youth who have completed a high school
education or GED and those who have not. The college attending group is
compromised of young people who have been enrolled in college in the past or are
currently enrolled.
14 DATA SET #8 During the last few years, has your financial situation been getting better or worse? Source: Smith, Tom and Jaesok Son; Trends in Public Evaluation of Economic Wellbeing, 1972-­‐2012, NORC at University of Chicago, March 2013 15 16 17 DATA SET #10 Consider the impact of being a “battleground” or “toss-­‐up” state on voting patterns. 18 DATA SET 11 19 DATA SET #12 For ‘Millennials,’ a Tide of Cynicism and a Partisan Gap By SHERYL GAY STOLBERG, (excerpted from The New York Times, April 29, 2013) WASHINGTON — Andy Welsh of Portland, Ore., was so enthusiastic about President Obama’s first run for the White House that he voted absentee while spending a semester abroad in Spain. But Mr. Welsh, now 26 and an aspiring diplomat, said the gridlock in Washington has been “a real bummer ever since.” Katie Hermann, 29, a corporate strategist in Chicago, also supported Mr. Obama for president, but when she thinks about the state of politics in America today, she said, “I feel slightly more discouraged than I did back when President Obama was first elected.” David Durgin, 28, who is putting himself through the University of Colorado and owns a car detailing shop near Denver, did not vote for Mr. Obama and has also soured on Washington. “There’s too much fighting going on between the parties,” he said. These three voters — Mr. Welsh, a registered independent; Ms. Hermann, a Democrat; and Mr. Durgin, a Republican — reflect what political analysts see as a troubling trend: the idealism of youth is slipping away, replaced by mistrust and a growing partisan divide among voters under 30. These so-­‐called millennials, who turned out in droves to elect Mr. Obama in 2008, are increasingly turned off by politics. Experts fear their cynicism may become permanent. “If you are 24 years old, all you know is petty partisan politics while big issues aren’t getting addressed, while the economy is still struggling,” said Trey Grayson, director of the Institute of Politics at Harvard University, which on Tuesday will release the results of the latest in a series of polls documenting millennials’ attitudes toward government. “So you wonder whether the governing institutions of your country are up to the task.” The Harvard survey, of more than 3,100 voters under 30, found that faith in most major institutions — with the notable exception of the military — has declined over the past several years. Today, only 39 percent of young voters trust the president to do the right thing, as opposed to 44 percent in 2010. Just 18 percent of voters under 30 trust Congress, compared with 25 percent in February 2010. “At no time since President Obama was elected in 2008 have we reported less trust, more cynicism and more partisanship among young voters,” Mr. Della Volpe wrote in the study. 20 21