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CMG Workshop on the Formulation of a Multi-Institutional Semi-Virtual
Math-Geo Institute in Chicago
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Page 1 of 2
[email protected]
PROJECT SUMMARY
CMG Workshop on the Formulation of a Multi-Institutional Semi-Virtual Math-Geo Institute in
Chicago
Seth Stein, Northwestern
Summary
Over the past two decades the earth sciences have acquired a wealth of new and high quality
data from new and greatly improved observing systems. Because this volume of data poses a
major challenge for traditional analysis methods, only a fraction of their potential has yet
been exploited. Similarly, results of many advanced numerical simulations of earth processes
are only partially analyzed. Hence neither the data nor the modeling are being used to their
full potential, leaving crucial questions unresolved. This situation arises in a wide range
of areas including earthquake and volcano dynamics, earth structure and geodynamics, climate
and weather, and planetary science. Addressing this situation calls for the application of
mathematical methods not currently used, which requires a deeper and long-term dialogue and
interaction between the mathematical and geoscience communities. To this end, we propose to
host a three-day workshop to study the feasibility of establishing a semi-virtual institute
in Chicago to facilitate a fruitful interaction between a broad and geographically distributed
group of mathematicians and geoscientists. Its goal would be for earth scientists and mathematicians
to identify and explore jointly crucial unsolved problems amenable to mathematical approaches
not currently used. This seems feasible if both groups develop a long-term relationship giving
each reasonable sophistication with the other’s language, problems, and techniques. We explore
various means of accomplishing these goals including the use of modern web technology, which
can be brought to bear for broadcasting lectures to both communities, holding virtual mini-meetings,
and research interactions.
Intellectual Merit : Stimulating collaboration between mathematicians and geoscientists to
develop methods to fully utilize the wealth of new and high quality geoscience data and advanced
modeling methods now coming to fruition is likely to lead to significant advances on a broad
range of important topics.
Broader Impact: The problems we seek to advance understanding of have enormous societal impact
in the areas of natural hazard forecasting and mitigation and energy resources. The communication
and collaboration will expose undergraduates, graduate students and postdoctoral fellows from
both disciplines to new ideas and develop young earth scientists and mathematicians with deeper
and broader training for interdisciplinary studies than current programs.
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1
Introduction
Over the past two decades the earth sciences have acquired
a wealth of new and high quality data from new and greatly
improved observing systems. For example, GPS can measure
ground deformation at rates below 1 mm/yr. Ground shaking
is extracted from voluminous broadband digital seismic data
with
previously
unimaginable
fidelity
and
with
unprecedented spatial sampling that virtually captures the
entire wave field. Satellite imaging radars show how
deformation around volcanoes evolves with space and time.
Space-based altimetry and other technologies yield clear
views of previously unobservable oceanographic processes.
The most striking result of these and similar datasets is
that current conceptual models are incapable of explaining
key aspects of these observations. For example, we have no
clear understanding of why earthquakes within continents
migrate between faults that turn on and off on irregular
timescales. We have no idea why volcanic deformation
sometimes continues to a large eruption and in other cases
ceases. We have no idea why the annual number of hurricanes
is not ten times greater or ten times less. It is quite
unclear why atmospheric carbon dioxide content varies
between glacial and interglacial periods. An ongoing puzzle
is how to interpret models of seismic velocity structure
derived from high-resolution tomographic studies in terms
of temperature, composition, and rheology that reflect and
control convection in the earth’s interior and hence the
planet’s thermal, chemical, and mechanical evolution.
These issues have both fundamental scientific and societal
significance. Improved earthquake and hurricane hazard
assessments can save billions of dollars by applying
resources wisely where they will do the most good.
The challenge is not one of only computational power.
Powerful computations based on existing models are
incapable of resolving these issues. Instead, we need to
develop new conceptual approaches to describe the
complexities of these natural systems. Essentially, we need
ways to characterize systems that vary strongly in space
and time in ways not accounted for in our current
paradigms.
Historically, solutions to such difficulties have arisen
from the application of mathematical methods not previously
adapted to geoscience issues. A striking example has been
2
in seismic exploration where since the 1950s advances in
data quality have driven the highly successful application
of previously unused mathematical techniques including
Wiener filtering, fast Fourier transforms, inverse
scattering methods, and Radon transforms.
This transfer
has been analogous to the interaction between engineering
and mathematics that allowed Bell Laboratories to make
enormous advances in communication and computational
science.
Thus the time is ripe to develop a structure for continued
dialog between earth scientists and mathematicians. Its
goal would be to identify and explore jointly crucial
unsolved problems amenable to mathematical approaches not
currently used. This seems feasible if both groups develop
a
long-term
relationship
giving
each
reasonable
sophistication with the other's language, problems, and
techniques.
This proposal seeks to begin this process via a workshop to
explore problems of interest and ultimately develop a semivirtual collaborative institute. It grows from discussions
among midwestern researchers centered around the Chicago
area. This initial organizing group is Seth Stein, Craig
Bina, and Suzan van der Lee (Northwestern), Maarten DeHoop
and H. Jay Melosh
(Purdue), David Yuen (Minnesota), and
Raymond Pierrehumbert and L. Ridgway Scott (U. Chicago).
Examples
A few examples illustrate some of the many problems of
interest.
Earthquakes: It has become clear in the past decade that
the basic paradigm used to describe earthquake behavior
fails within the continents. This paradigm, developed from
studies of earthquakes along plate boundaries like the San
Andreas Fault, is that faults are loaded at constant rate,
giving rise to earthquakes that are spatially focused and
temporally quasi-periodic. However, we are learning that
within the continents, tectonic loading is collectively
accommodated by a complex system of interacting faults. As
a result, earthquakes can be clustered on a fault for a
while and then shift to another, making the past a poor
predictor of the future.
3
Figure 1: Comparison of earthquakes at plate boundaries
(top) and in continental interiors (Stein et al., 2009).
A striking example of this variability is in North
China, where large (M>7) earthquakes have been frequent,
but not a single one repeated in the same place since 1300
A.D.
Another is in the central U.S.'s New Madrid area,
where paleoseismic data show a cluster of large earthquakes
in the past millennium but two decades of GPS measurements
showing no deformation suggest that the cluster may be
ending. We do not understand what forces give rise to
earthquakes within continents, the physics of the faults
they occur on, or why and how the earthquakes migrate
between faults. We do not yet know how to integrate
seismological, geodetic, and geological data to understand
these
p r o c e s s e s . This issue is both fundamental
scientifically and of enormous societal significance,
because earthquake hazard assessments used to develop
building codes do not incorporate space-time variability,
and so likely overestimate the hazard in some places and
underestimate it elsewhere. Hence the May 2008 magnitude
7.9 earthquake in Sichuan, China was particularly
destructive (70,000 deaths) because it occurred in an area
treated as having low seismic hazard because the fault had
little recent seismicity.
Volcanoes: In recent years a tremendous body of volcanic
observations and new data are streaming in from groundbased and remote sensing instruments at an accelerating
rate. Understanding of individual volcanic processes has
improved through a combination of laboratory experiments,
numerical and analytical models, and field measurements
4
made before, during and after eruptions. Yet what is
glaringly lacking are the conceptual tools needed to
combine data from a variety of volcanoes, experiments, and
models to understand the fundamental processes controlling
how volcanoes work and what causes their complex eruption
pattern in space and time work. This limits our ability to
accurately forecast future eruptions and their societal
effects. This lack is most severe for calderas (volcanoes
that erupt extremely violently but very infrequently) and
continental arc volcanoes, where the largest populations
are at risk.
The present empirical approach relies on observing unusual
behavior and making plausible assessments based on limited
experience but no theoretical understanding.
This is
sometimes very successful, but in other cases fails. A
striking case occurred in late 1997 when both seismological
and geodetic data showed significantly increased
deformation in the Long Valley, California, caldera. The
resulting volcano alert stating that an eruption might be
imminent resulted in significant tensions with area
residents, especially when no eruption occurred.
Figure 2: Earthquake moment release and ground deformation
during the 1997 Long Valley volcanic episode (Newman et
al., 2006).
Earth structure & geodynamics: Earth structure &
geodynamics:
Mantle convection modeling and seismic
imaging of the Earth’s interior have largely converged upon
a common, coarse model for the structure of as well as the
processes and forces inside the Earth’s mantle, which are
vitally intertwined with those acting on the lithosphere at
the Earth’s surface. Even so, there are huge gaps in our
understanding of how the earth works at multiple scales.
For example, we have no idea how subduction cycles are
sustained over billions of years, or whether the brittle
lithosphere developing a subduction zone is in response to
5
processes in the mantle or in the surface lithosphere. It
is unclear why some of the great subducting slabs of
lithosphere sometimes descend smoothly through the mantle's
phase transition zone, whereas others founder at this
transition. Similarly, the role of mantle plumes and their
depth of origin is intensely debated. These effects are
crucial for understanding the earth's thermal, mechanical,
and chemical evolution to its current state. It is even
less clear why our neighboring planets, composed of
essentially the same material, evolved so differently. The
relationships
between
seismic
velocity,
rheology,
composition, viscosity, temperature, and physical state are
complex, non-linear, and discontinuous. Furthermore, images
of Earth structure derived from seismic tomography (based
on large travel-time and waveform datasets) sometimes imply
different mantle dynamics than do images of the same region
derived from migrated receiver functions (based on dense
array datasets such as those of Hi-Net), and such
significant discrepancies in densely sampled regions (which
one might expect to be well resolved) are not yet well
understood.
Inverting
seismic
data
directly
for
geodynamically relevant parameters thus remains a frontier
that can possibly be tackled by new mathematical
approaches. Such new approaches could also benefit the
incorporation of more physical complexity into the
convection models.
At present these issues are being advanced by exploiting
the exponentially increased volume of seismic data to map
the temperature, state, and composition of the Earth’s
interior and using the results to develop models of the
relevant processes.
The currently available, enormous
volume of seismic data in itself demands new techniques for
being handled and processed effectively. The petroleum
exploration industry has always had mathematicians work
with geologists on the processing and analysis of large
volumes of seismic-profiling data. Methods and techniques
used in that industry have proven to be highly effective
and efficient at handling large volumes of data but are not
directly portable, for various reasons, to fundamental
research in Earth structure. However, this successful
implementation of fusing "math" and "geo" is what we hope
to begin formally in the proposed workshop.
Already, the unprecedented volume of seismic data from
USArray has spurred the application the Radon Transform and
other mathematical techniques to image slab folding that
looks similar to that observed in numerical convection
6
modeling.
On the other hand, new mathematical techniques
based on adjoint methods allow the use of seismictomographic models in reverse geodynamic modeling.
Figure 3. A generic subduction zone’s S velocities derived
from a) fine-scale geodynamic modeling with realistic
composition, petrology, and temperature (Gerya et al.,
2006) and b) Joint inversion of continental-scale surface
waves from a sparse network of broadband seismic stations
and ground-truth Moho depths (black line). The geodynamic
model has the kind of rheological detail that seismology
still has to begin to resolve, for which methods and
techniques are in development. The reverse is also true
when detail in tomographic images reveals characteristics
not captured easily in convection models, such as the
brittle failure of lithosphere, the variable behavior of
slabs in the transition zone, large-scale compositional
anomalies, or upwellings that start in the mid-mantle.
Forecasting Hurricanes in a Warmer World: In the wake of
hurricane Katrina, there are more heated debates about the
possible increasing frequency and ferocity of hurricanes
and their possible connection to global warming.These
urgent questions are drawing the attention of climate
scientists on the one hand and hurricane and weather
forecasters on the other. This is a problem of great
mathematical, statistical and computational interest that
involves both thermodynamics and fluid dynamics on many
spatial and temporal scales accompanied by a plethora of
micro-physical phenomena. Hurricane modeling is as
challenging as simulating earthquakes from first
principles.
Climate systems and global warming: Many unanswered
questions remain concerning the Earth's atmospheric-oceanic
system and the different forcings the Earth is subjected
to. There is a great need for new mathematical inroads into
the formulation of this multiscale initial-boundary value
7
problem. The main physical issues involve ocean heat
storage, aerosol radiative forcing, cloud feedbacks and
atmosphere-ocean internally generated variability, which is
behind the cold spells in Europe and China being
experienced in the winter of 2010.
The role played by
variable coefficients due to the spatial variations of the
coefficients connected with the thermodynamic and transport
properties of the governing PDE system has not been
considered in a systematic manner. Recent advances on the
theory pseudo-differential operators can help to shed light
on these matters.
Ice sheet dynamics: Understanding the thermo-mechanics of
large ice sheets and its interaction with marine ice
environments is of extreme societal relevance. Few
fundamental advances in the necessary continuum and
thermodynamic formulation have been made in the past 25
years. Improved mathematical theory is needed to describe
systems that exhibit sudden discontinuous changes in state
or form. Certain aspects of the history of global ice
fluctuations indicate that the dynamics of ice masses may
be subject to such sudden changes like to those predicted
by catastrophe theory.
Planetary science and asteroid collision: Over the last
decade planetary science has received great impetus from
the quick advancement of the field of exosolar planets,
which because of its eclectic nature drew researchersfrom
many different disciplines. The theory of the formation of
different solar systems require new types of thinking and
new mathematical tools that can simulate an ensemble of
different solar systems with a wide variety of initial
conditions and scenarios involving planetary collisions.
The dynamics of potential large “Super-Earth” planets are
likely to include processes that do not arise on earth.
These include exotic physical properties such as phase
transitions and transport mechanisms due to the much higher
pressures, which significantly perturb to the electronic
band structure of silicates. The potential threat to the
Earth from asteroid collision can also be better assessed
using the greatly improved resolution of observational
instruments, augmented by more sophisticated tools for data
analysis.
Landscape formation and drainage: Landscape evolution and
drainage problems have important societal impact because of
their impact on our environment. The growing availability
of high resolution topographic data from LIDAR and InSAR
8
encourages investigators to model landscapes at a
comparably fine spatial scale, so that the topographic data
can be compared with model predictions or used as initial
conditions. But resolving fine-scale features such as
individual hill slopes often introduces sediment transport
laws that have strong nonlinearities, which compounds the
already difficult problem of solving integro-differential
equations, due to local mass drainage, for fluvial sediment
transport on large numerical meshes. Many unsolved issues
in this burgeoning field are ripe for mathematicians to
explore and formulate as initial-boundary value problems.
Flow in fractured media: A crucial class of environmental
issues involves the role of ground water and other fluids.
Fluid flow transports dissolved minerals, colloids, and
contaminants, sometimes over long distances. It mediates
dissolution and precipitation processes and enables
chemical transformations in solution and at mineral
surfaces. Although the complex geometries of fracture
apertures, fracture networks, and pore spaces make it
difficult to accurately predict fluid flow in subsurface
systems, some numerical methods are available. Simulation
of multiphase fluid flow in the subsurface is much more
challenging because of the large density and/or viscosity
ratios found in important applications (for example
water/air in the vadose zone; water/oil, water/gas,
gas/oil, and water/ oil/gas in hydrocarbon reservoirs; and
gas/molten rock in volcanic system. There remains a need
for improvement in the numerical simulations of fluid flow
in fractured media besides the usual tools of Lattice
Boltzmann methods, particle methods (molecular dynamics,
dissipative particle dynamics and smoothed particle
hydrodynamics) and traditional grid-based Eulerian schemes
coupled with interface tracking and a contact angle model.
New algorithms would be of especial value given the recent
advent of GPU and multi-core computing.
Risk analysis: Natural disasters, such as earthquakes,
tsunamis and hurricanes, strike often with very short
warning and cause great loss of human lives and property
damages amounting to billions of dollars. During this past
decade, we have witnessed Hurricane Katrina (2005), the
great magnitude 9.3 Indian Ocean earthquake and tsunami of
2004, the recent tsunami of September 2009 at American
Samoa after amagnitude 8.0 earthquake. Developing policies
to mitigate such disasters is crucial for the public,
government, and the insurance industry. Advances in
modeling can provide high fidelity numerical simulations of
9
earthquakes, tsunami wave propagation, hurricanes and
tornadoes. These are crucial for assessing the nature and
magnitude of the risks in different areas. These modeling
efforts are connected to advances in forecasting and sensor
technology, as well as web technology for public
information availability. An important and yet unresolved
issue is how to realistically assess the probability of
such rare events, especially when – as may be the case for
hurricanes or earthquakes within continents – the
probability is changing in time as well as spatially
variable.
Integration with energy issues: Assessment of the remaining
amounts of fossil fuel and other valuable mineral resources
is a crucial topic. Prediction of the oil remaining was
first made by K. Hubbert in the 1950's. Such analysis of
critical events can be better addressed with modern
statistical physical and filtering tools, which have been
employed in earthquake forecasting in Southern California.
There is a great need for greater interaction between
geophysicists versed in complex systems and statisticians
armed with state-of-the-art tools in predicting the trends
of energy resources. Such collaboration can attempt to
better answer many questions about the depletion of fossil
fuels including the timeline, possible effects, and their
uncertainties.
For the workshop, we intend to seek representation of
the following fields of mathematics, which are
naturally tied to the earth science subjects described
above:
- analysis of (nonlinear) partial differential equations,
conservation laws
- microlocal analysis and applied harmonic analysis
- inverse problems and control theory
- numerical analysis, computational linear algebra
- dynamical systems
- probability, random
differential equations
matrices,
stochastic
- algebraic geometry and symplectic geometry
partial
10
- visualization and tropical geometry
Workshop plan
We plan a three-day workshop to bring around 40 people
together from geosciences and mathematics.
The workshop
will explore problems of interest and discuss various
techniques with potential applicability. It should give an
idea of the possibilities and limitations of the field
Geoscientists will identify some key issues and gaps in our
understanding, highlighting underlying big issues.
Mathematicians will highlight the great potential of
various mathematical approaches. We envision a structure
like that used by the National Academy of Sciences
interdisciplinary Frontiers of Science meetings or by the
Santa Fe Institute.
This process will provide each side with opportunities for
the naive questions that so often lead to new insights as
people learn enough to recognize similarities and
complementarities between their interests and skills. We
make no claims to cover all topics or present a grand
overview. Instead, we view this as an initial focus on some
easily identifiable and potential tractable problems.
We do not necessarily anticipate - though we would welcome
- immediate "Aha" moments. However, it is highly likely
that a number of potentially useful directions of research
will emerge. The very act of writing the workshop report,
which will be published, will help catalyze some syntheses.
The planned workshop grows out of interactions between
researchers in the Midwest centered generally around the
Chicago area. Hence this funding request comes via
Northwestern.
T his endeavor has the support and
encouragement of Northwestern's Office for Research,
Weinberg College of Arts & Sciences, and graduate
school.
Northwestern University is prepared to arrange the meeting
site either on the Evanston campus or nearby. The
arrangement reflects the large concentrations of
researchers in both disciplines within roughly 500 miles of
Chicago and the ease of local transportation there.
If successful, we envision these interactions developing
into a semi-virtual collaborative institute centered in the
Chicago area but with national and international extension.
11
In addition to developing research collaborations, we
envision the institute as a vehicle for short courses and
other approaches to training a new generation of graduate
students with advanced multidisciplinary skills. To
facilitate this process, the Institute could have summer
meetings, joint tele-classes and seminars, and semester
programs linking one big issue in the geosciences to two
fields of mathematics.
Chicago is an ideal site for the institute’s hub because of
its proximity to many major research universities. Within
90 minutes of air travel, one can reach well over 50 major
universities and major government labs, such as Argonne
National Lab and NCAR.
We thus plan to invite mathematicians representing these
fields for to participate in exploring the possibility and
role of an Institute.
Our initial informal inquiries find a broad range of
interest in the workshop. To date, mathematicians who have
been contacted and are interested, in addition to the
organizing committee, are B. Spencer, G. Uhlmann, C. Kenig,
P. Constantine, J. Wunsch, C. Doering, T. Dupont, J.
Lawler, T. Souganidis, N. Flyer, J. Cushman, S. Osher, D.
Donoho, A. Majda, X. Wang, G. Wright, and M. Knepley,.
Geoscientists who have been contacted and are interested,
in addition to the organizing committee, are J. Rundle, P.
Shearer, J. Tromp, R. van der Hilst, J. Schubert, P.
Roberts, B. Romanowicz, D. Bercovici, B. Buffet, M. Ishii,
D. Hale, P. van Keken, J. Lin, T. Dixon, Y. Podladchikhov,
G. Vallis, M. Spiegelman, S. King, B. Hager, D. Turcotte,
T. Jordan, J. B. Minster, R. Madariaga, G. Nolet, W.
Peltier, M. Liu and D. Jackson. If the workshop is funded
will solicit additional interested participants. We will
also invite a number of graduate students to attend.
Workshop format and results dissemination
We envision presentations from both mathematics and
geosciences. Speakers will be requested to speak on topics
related to the workshop agenda. They will review the topic,
explain the limitations of current approaches to it, and –
to the extent possible – suggest what might be desirable
possibilities for new approaches. Mathematicians will
highlight the potential of the mathematical subfields and
the remaining challenges relevant to geosciences.
Geoscientists will identify the key concepts and gaps in
12
understanding and highlight the big issues in their field.
We will have poster sessions on two days. Panel discussions
will occur after two talks covering each category. There
will be five categories chosen from mathematics and five
from geoscience. We make no claims to cover everything or
to present a grand overview. The categories are chosen to
catalyze some possible topics for the math-geo institute.
One of the outcomes of the workshop will be to come up with
a tentative five-year plan. The programs should not only
aid in addressing geosciences questions, but also lead to
new directions of mathematical research.
We plan to assign writing assignments for each category and
a writing committee will prepare a 40 - 50 page report on
the advantages and goals of a math-geo institute. This
report will follow the style of some recent reports such as
that on high-performance computing requirements for the
computational solid earth sciences edited by R. Cohen in
2005.
References cited
Gerya, T., Connolly, J., Yuen, D., Gorczyk, W. and A. Capel,
Seismic implications of mantle wedge plumes, Physics Earth
Planetary Inter., 156, 59-74, 2006.
Newman, A., T. Dixon, and N. Gourmelen, A four-dimensional
viscoelastic deformation model for Long Valley Caldera,
California, between 1995 and 2000, Journal of Volcanology
and Geothermal Research, 150, 244 – 269, 2006
Stein, S., M. Liu, and H. Wang, Earthquake stress transfer
within continents: Migrating earthquakes and long
aftershock sequences (abstract), AGU fall meeting, 2009.
Seth A. Stein
Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Northwestern University Evanston, IL 60208
(847) 491-5265 FAX: (847) 491-8060 E-MAIL: [email protected]
PROFESSIONAL PREPARATION:
B.S. (Earth and Planetary Sciences), Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 1975
Ph.D. (Geophysics), California Institute of Technology, 1978
Post-Doctoral Research Affiliate in Geophysics, Stanford University, 1978-1979
APPOINTMENTS:
William Deering Professor of Geological Sciences, Northwestern University, 2006Professor of Geological Sciences, Northwestern University, 1987Scientific Director, University NAVSTAR Consortium, 1998-2000
Visiting Senior Scientist, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, 1993-1994
Chair, Department of Geological Sciences, Northwestern University, 1989-1992
Associate Professor of Geological Sciences, Northwestern University, 1983-1987
Assistant Professor of Geological Sciences, Northwestern University, 1979-1983
FIVE RELEVANT PUBLICATIONS:
Stein, C. and S. Stein, A model for the global variation in oceanic depth and heat flow with
lithospheric age, Nature, 359, 123-128, 1992.
Norabuena, E., L. Leffler-Griffin, A. Mao, T. Dixon, S. Stein, I. S. Sacks, L. Ocala and M. Ellis,
Space geodetic observations of Nazca-South America convergence along the Central Andes,
Science, 279,358-362, 1998.
Newman, A., S. Stein, J. Weber, J. Engeln, A. Mao, and T. Dixon, Slow deformation and low
seismic hazard at the New Madrid seismic zone, Science, 284,619-621, 1999.
Stein, S., M. Liu, E. Calais, and Q. Li, Midcontinent earthquakes as a complex system, Seis. Res.
Lett., 80, 551-553, 2009.
Stein, S. and M. Liu, Long aftershock sequences within continents and implications for
earthquake hazard assessment, Nature, 462, 87-89, 2009
FIVE OTHER PUBLICATIONS:
DeMets, C., R. G. Gordon, D. F. Argus, and S. Stein, Current plate motions, Geophys. J.,
101,425-478,1990.
A. Newman, J. Schneider, S. Stein, and A. Mendez, Uncertainties in seismic hazard maps for the
New Madrid Seismic Zone, Seis. Res. Lett., 72, 653-667, 2001.
Stein, S., and M. Wysession, Introduction to Seismology, Earthquakes, and Earth Structure,
Blackwell Publishing, 2003.
Stein, S., and S. Mazzotti, (editors), Continental Intraplate Earthquakes: Science, Hazard, and
Policy Issues, Geological Society of America Special Paper 425, 2007.
Hebden, J. and S. Stein, Time-dependent seismic hazard maps for the New Madrid seismic zone
and Charleston, South Carolina areas, Seis. Res. Lett, 80, 10-20, 2009.
SYNERGISTIC ACTIVITIES:
UNAVCO, Northwestern University representative, 1985Member, External Advisory Board, Netherlands Research Centre for Integrated
Solid Earth Science, 2003Distinguished Lecturer, Incorporated Research Institutions for Seismology/Seismological
Society of America, ("Giant earthquakes: why, where, when, and what we can do"), 2007
Member, NSF Earthscope Operations and Maintenance review panel, 2007
Member, European Science Foundation TOPO-Europe review panel, 2007
Member, NSF Earth Sciences Instrumentation Program Visiting Committee, 2007
Scientific advisor, Field Museum of Natural History natural disasters exhibit, 2007-9
Member, German Science Foundation South Atlantic review panel, 2008-
COLLABORATORS:
Scientific collaborators in last 48 months: M. Liu (Missouri), E. Okal (Northwestern), E. Calais
(Purdue), Q. Li (LPI), G. Blewitt, G., W. C. Hammond, C. Kreemer, H.-P. Plag (all Univ. of
Nevada)
THESIS ADVISOR AND POSTDOCTORAL SCHOLAR SPONSOR:
Graduate student collaborators: 14 total who gained Ph.D.s to date.
In past five years: Alberto Lopez (University of Puerto Rico.), Eryn Klosko (Westchester
Community College), Kimberly Schramm (New Mexico Tech), Laura Swafford (Chevron)
Posdoctoral scholar sponsor: 2 total
GRADUATE AND POSTDOCTORAL ADVISORS:
H. Kanamori (Caltech), R. Geller (U. Tokyo)
SUMMARY
PROPOSAL BUDGET
YEAR
1
FOR NSF USE ONLY
PROPOSAL NO.
DURATION (months)
Proposed Granted
AWARD NO.
ORGANIZATION
Northwestern University
PRINCIPAL INVESTIGATOR / PROJECT DIRECTOR
Seth A Stein
A. SENIOR PERSONNEL: PI/PD, Co-PI’s, Faculty and Other Senior Associates
(List each separately with title, A.7. show number in brackets)
NSF Funded
Person-months
CAL
ACAD
1. Seth A Stein - none
0.00 0.00
2.
3.
4.
5.
6. ( 0 ) OTHERS (LIST INDIVIDUALLY ON BUDGET JUSTIFICATION PAGE)
0.00 0.00
7. ( 1 ) TOTAL SENIOR PERSONNEL (1 - 6)
0.00 0.00
B. OTHER PERSONNEL (SHOW NUMBERS IN BRACKETS)
1. ( 0 ) POST DOCTORAL SCHOLARS
0.00 0.00
2. ( 0 ) OTHER PROFESSIONALS (TECHNICIAN, PROGRAMMER, ETC.)
0.00 0.00
3. ( 0 ) GRADUATE STUDENTS
4. ( 0 ) UNDERGRADUATE STUDENTS
5. ( 0 ) SECRETARIAL - CLERICAL (IF CHARGED DIRECTLY)
6. ( 0 ) OTHER
TOTAL SALARIES AND WAGES (A + B)
C. FRINGE BENEFITS (IF CHARGED AS DIRECT COSTS)
TOTAL SALARIES, WAGES AND FRINGE BENEFITS (A + B + C)
D. EQUIPMENT (LIST ITEM AND DOLLAR AMOUNT FOR EACH ITEM EXCEEDING $5,000.)
SUMR
Funds
Requested By
proposer
0.00 $
0 $
0.00
0.00
0
0
0.00
0.00
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
TOTAL EQUIPMENT
E. TRAVEL
1. DOMESTIC (INCL. CANADA, MEXICO AND U.S. POSSESSIONS)
2. FOREIGN
F. PARTICIPANT SUPPORT COSTS
0
1. STIPENDS
$
24,450
2. TRAVEL
37,260
3. SUBSISTENCE
0
4. OTHER
TOTAL NUMBER OF PARTICIPANTS
( 40 )
G. OTHER DIRECT COSTS
1. MATERIALS AND SUPPLIES
2. PUBLICATION COSTS/DOCUMENTATION/DISSEMINATION
3. CONSULTANT SERVICES
4. COMPUTER SERVICES
5. SUBAWARDS
6. OTHER
TOTAL OTHER DIRECT COSTS
H. TOTAL DIRECT COSTS (A THROUGH G)
I. INDIRECT COSTS (F&A)(SPECIFY RATE AND BASE)
TOTAL PARTICIPANT COSTS
Funds
granted by NSF
(if different)
61,710
0
5,000
0
0
0
4,500
9,500
71,210
Other Direct Costs (Rate: 36.0000, Base: 9500)
TOTAL INDIRECT COSTS (F&A)
J. TOTAL DIRECT AND INDIRECT COSTS (H + I)
K. RESIDUAL FUNDS
L. AMOUNT OF THIS REQUEST (J) OR (J MINUS K)
M. COST SHARING PROPOSED LEVEL $
PI/PD NAME
Seth A Stein
ORG. REP. NAME*
3,420
74,630
0
74,630 $
0
$
AGREED LEVEL IF DIFFERENT $
FOR NSF USE ONLY
INDIRECT COST RATE VERIFICATION
Date Checked
Date Of Rate Sheet
fm1030rs-07
Initials - ORG
1 *ELECTRONIC SIGNATURES REQUIRED FOR REVISED BUDGET
SUMMARY
PROPOSAL BUDGET
Cumulative
FOR NSF USE ONLY
PROPOSAL NO.
DURATION (months)
Proposed Granted
AWARD NO.
ORGANIZATION
Northwestern University
PRINCIPAL INVESTIGATOR / PROJECT DIRECTOR
Seth A Stein
A. SENIOR PERSONNEL: PI/PD, Co-PI’s, Faculty and Other Senior Associates
(List each separately with title, A.7. show number in brackets)
NSF Funded
Person-months
CAL
ACAD
1. Seth A Stein - none
0.00 0.00
2.
3.
4.
5.
6. (
) OTHERS (LIST INDIVIDUALLY ON BUDGET JUSTIFICATION PAGE)
0.00 0.00
7. ( 1 ) TOTAL SENIOR PERSONNEL (1 - 6)
0.00 0.00
B. OTHER PERSONNEL (SHOW NUMBERS IN BRACKETS)
1. ( 0 ) POST DOCTORAL SCHOLARS
0.00 0.00
2. ( 0 ) OTHER PROFESSIONALS (TECHNICIAN, PROGRAMMER, ETC.)
0.00 0.00
3. ( 0 ) GRADUATE STUDENTS
4. ( 0 ) UNDERGRADUATE STUDENTS
5. ( 0 ) SECRETARIAL - CLERICAL (IF CHARGED DIRECTLY)
6. ( 0 ) OTHER
TOTAL SALARIES AND WAGES (A + B)
C. FRINGE BENEFITS (IF CHARGED AS DIRECT COSTS)
TOTAL SALARIES, WAGES AND FRINGE BENEFITS (A + B + C)
D. EQUIPMENT (LIST ITEM AND DOLLAR AMOUNT FOR EACH ITEM EXCEEDING $5,000.)
SUMR
Funds
Requested By
proposer
0.00 $
0 $
0.00
0.00
0
0
0.00
0.00
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
TOTAL EQUIPMENT
E. TRAVEL
1. DOMESTIC (INCL. CANADA, MEXICO AND U.S. POSSESSIONS)
2. FOREIGN
F. PARTICIPANT SUPPORT COSTS
0
1. STIPENDS
$
24,450
2. TRAVEL
37,260
3. SUBSISTENCE
0
4. OTHER
TOTAL NUMBER OF PARTICIPANTS
( 40 )
G. OTHER DIRECT COSTS
1. MATERIALS AND SUPPLIES
2. PUBLICATION COSTS/DOCUMENTATION/DISSEMINATION
3. CONSULTANT SERVICES
4. COMPUTER SERVICES
5. SUBAWARDS
6. OTHER
TOTAL OTHER DIRECT COSTS
H. TOTAL DIRECT COSTS (A THROUGH G)
I. INDIRECT COSTS (F&A)(SPECIFY RATE AND BASE)
TOTAL INDIRECT COSTS (F&A)
J. TOTAL DIRECT AND INDIRECT COSTS (H + I)
K. RESIDUAL FUNDS
L. AMOUNT OF THIS REQUEST (J) OR (J MINUS K)
M. COST SHARING PROPOSED LEVEL $
PI/PD NAME
Seth A Stein
ORG. REP. NAME*
TOTAL PARTICIPANT COSTS
Funds
granted by NSF
(if different)
61,710
0
5,000
0
0
0
4,500
9,500
71,210
3,420
74,630
0
74,630 $
0
$
AGREED LEVEL IF DIFFERENT $
FOR NSF USE ONLY
INDIRECT COST RATE VERIFICATION
Date Checked
Date Of Rate Sheet
fm1030rs-07
Initials - ORG
C *ELECTRONIC SIGNATURES REQUIRED FOR REVISED BUDGET
Budget Justification
F. Participant Support Costs
Participant support costs include domestic and foreign air travel, mileage for local
participants, and subsistence (room and board) for 40 researcher and 5 graduate student
participants. No travel costs were assumed for the graduate students.
Domestic Airfare for 27 participants is estimated at $600 per roundtrip ticket.
International Airfare for 6 foreign participants is estimated at $1,200 per roundtrip
ticket.
Mileage costs for 7 local participants to drive to workshop are estimated at
$150/participant, totaling $1,050.
Room and board for 45 participants for 3 days at $276/day is $37,260. This rate is
based on the government per diem for Chicago.
G. Other Direct Costs
Publication costs for 60-page meeting report and space on electronic publication site
http://www.geo-prose.com are $5,000.
Rental cost of the meeting space is estimated at $1,500/day for the 3 day workshop.
I. Indirect Costs
The F&A rate of 36% is applied to the Other Direct Costs.
Current and Pending Support
(See GPG Section II.C.2.h for guidance on information to include on this form.)
The following information should be provided for each investigator and other senior personnel. Failure to provide this information may delay consideration of this proposal.
Other agencies (including NSF) to which this proposal has been/will be submitted.
Investigator: Seth Stein
Support:
Current
Pending
Submission Planned in Near Future
*Transfer of Support
Project/Proposal Title: CMG Workshop on the Formulation of a Multi-Institutional
Semi-Virtual Math-Geo Institute in Chicago (this
proposal)
NSF
Source of Support:
Total Award Amount: $
74,630 Total Award Period Covered: 10/01/10 - 09/30/11
Location of Project:
Northwestern University
Person-Months Per Year Committed to the Project. Cal:0.00
Acad: 0.09 Sumr: 0.00
Support:
Current
Pending
Submission Planned in Near Future
*Transfer of Support
Project/Proposal Title: Collaborative Research: Superior Province Rifting
Earthscope Experiment (SPREE)
NSF
Source of Support:
Total Award Amount: $
432,340 Total Award Period Covered: 03/01/11 - 02/28/14
Location of Project:
Northwestern University
Person-Months Per Year Committed to the Project. Cal:0.00
Acad: 0.00 Sumr: 0.50
Support:
Current
Pending
Submission Planned in Near Future
*Transfer of Support
Project/Proposal Title: Acquisition of Computing Environment for Geophysical
Research
NSF
Source of Support:
Total Award Amount: $
74,572 Total Award Period Covered: 09/01/09 - 08/31/10
Location of Project:
Northwestern University
Person-Months Per Year Committed to the Project. Cal:0.00
Acad: 0.00 Sumr: 0.00
Support:
Current
Pending
Submission Planned in Near Future
*Transfer of Support
Project/Proposal Title:
Source of Support:
Total Award Amount: $
Total Award Period Covered:
Location of Project:
Person-Months Per Year Committed to the Project. Cal:
Acad:
Support:
Current
Pending
Submission Planned in Near Future
Sumr:
*Transfer of Support
Project/Proposal Title:
Source of Support:
Total Award Amount: $
Total Award Period Covered:
Location of Project:
Person-Months Per Year Committed to the Project. Cal:
Acad:
Summ:
*If this project has previously been funded by another agency, please list and furnish information for immediately preceding funding period.
Page G-1
USE ADDITIONAL SHEETS AS NECESSARY
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With this letter, I give my full fledged support for the workshop on the formulation of a
multi-institutional semi-virtual mathematics-geoscience institute in Chicago. With
technological advancement and globalization, the impact of geophysical processes
on the human condition, both from a societal and economic standpoint, has taken
center stage. Today, more than ever, we are aware of the devastating effects of
tsunamis, earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, magnetic storms, sea warming, ice sheet
melting, and so on. This increased awareness combined with the computer hardware
revolution over the past decade has prompted a call for deeper insights into the
complexity of the Earth system. However, in order to achieve this will require the joint
collaborative efforts of geoscientists and mathematicians.
The proposed workshop presents an exciting opportunity to establish a bridge
between the two communities on a national level for advancing the understanding of
the Earth system. It is an endeavor that I fully endorse and am delighted to be part of.
Sincerely,
Dr. Natasha Flyer
Scientist
Computational Mathematics Group
Institute of Mathematics Applied to Geosciences
National Center for Atmospheric Research
Boulder, CO
Department of Geosciences
College of
4044 Derring Hall
Blacksburg, Virginia 24061
540/231-7038 Fax: 540/231-3386
E-mail: [email protected]
http://www.geos.vt.edu/people/sking07/
Science
Dear Seth and Dave;
I fully support the aims outlined in the CMG proposal for a Workshop on the Formulation of a
Multi-Institutional Semi-Virtual Math-Geo Institute in Chicago. You have identified a very
important problem and this is an exciting idea. I look forward to attending.
Sincerely,
Scott King
Professor of Geophysics
Invent the Future
V I R G I N I A
P O L Y T E C H N I C I N S T I T U T E A N D S T A T E
An equal opportunity, affirmative action institution
U N I V E R S I T Y
The Fl o ri da S tate Uni v ers i ty
Tallahassee, Florida 32306-4510
Department of Mathematics
(850) 644-2202
Dr. Xiaoming Wang, Professor of Mathematics
office (850)644-6419 fax (850)644-4053
e-mail: [email protected]
Jan. 20, 2010
Dear Prof. Yuen,
I am writing you to explicitly express my support for your CMG
Collaborative Research proposal on “A Workshop on the
formulation of a multi-institutional semi-virtual math-geo
institute in Chicago”.
The scientific problems to be discussed at the workshop fits
nicely with my general research interest in geophysical fluid
dynamics and groundwater research. I am particularly interested
in two of the geophysical problems posed: climate systems and
global warming, and flow in fractured media. I’m also eager to
learn more about the other challenging geophysical problems
from the leading geo-scientists as proposed in your proposal.
The list of challenging problems listed in your proposal all
demand collaborative efforts from both the mathematicians and
the geoscientists. The proposed workshop would certainly
facilitate fruitful interaction between mathematicians and
earth scientists.
The proposed multi-institutional semi-virtual math-geo
Institute looks like an excellent idea. Although there are
existing collaborations between mathematicians and
geoscientists, many of them are small scale short term joint
venture. The new institute would be the first of its kind and
would provide crucial structure for continued dialog between
geoscientists and mathematicians. The semi-virtual format makes
perfect sense taking advantage of the modern web technology.
I look forward to participate in the workshop and the semivirtual math-geo Institute.
Sincerely,
Xiaoming Wang, Ph.D.
Professor of Mathematics
Director of Applied and Computational Mathematics
Florida State University
College of Arts and Sciences
1910 University Drive Boise, Idaho 83725-1555 USA
Department of Mathematics
phone +11 208-426-1172
fax +11 208-426-1356
January 20, 2010
Professor Seth Stein, PhD
Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences
1850 Campus Drive
Northwestern University, Evanston, IL 60208
Dear Professor Stein,
I am writing in full support of your CMG proposal for a workshop to study the feasibility
for establishing a semi-virtual, multi-institutional mathematics and geosciences institute in
Chicago. The proposed workshop offers a stimulating venue for fruitful discussions between
mathematicians and geoscientists on how to establish a new type of institute to benefit both
communities as well as society as a whole. As a computational mathematician who works
closely with undergraduate and graduate students on geo-related problems, I especially look
forward to the prospect of having a dedicated institute for students to present their work, to be
exposed to new problems, and to create new collaborations. The additional plan to make the
institute semi-virtual is essential for increasing participation and maintaining collaborations.
With increased awareness of the impact of geophysical processes on society and the advancement in computer processing power, the time is ripe for interdisciplinary collaboration between
mathematicians and geoscientists to better understand the complexity of the Earth system.
The proposed workshop lays the foundation for how such a sustained collaboration should be
made. I give my full endorsement for the workshop and would be pleased to be a part of it.
Sincerely,
Dr. Grady B. Wright
Assistant Professor
Department of Mathematics
Boise State University
1910 University Drive Boise, Idaho 83725-1555 USA
[email protected]
+11 208-426-4674.