Valuation of Home Health Service Providers Home Health Valuation Business Valuation Resources

BVR's 2013 Online Symposium on Healthcare Valuation: Part 3
Home Health Valuation
Business Valuation Resources
March 26, 2013
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Valuation of Home Health Service Providers
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Gary Massey
Overview of the options in Home Care services..
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Valuation of Home Health Service Providers
Which way are we going???
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Models of Care
Service
Delivery
Accountable
Organizations
Post Acute Care Episode Bundling
Acute Care Episode with PAC Bundling
Primary
Care
Physicians
Specialty
Care
Physicians
Outpatient
Hospital
Care and
ASCs
Inpatient
Hospital
Acute Care
Long Term
Acute
Hospital
Care
Inpatient
Rehab
Hospital
Care
Skilled
Nursing
Facility
Care
Home
Health
Care
Acute Care Bundling
Medical Home
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Services delivered in the home….
Who are the provide types?
Home Health
Hospice
Home Medical Equipment
Other In home services - Private Duty
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Home Health
• Home Health… as defined by Medicare…
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•
•
•
•
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Valuation of Home Health Service Providers
– Discipline of services… Skilled Nursing, Physical Therapy,
Occupational Therapy, Speech Therapy, Medical Social
Services, and Home Health Aide
– In addition to the services… supplies that are required for
the treatment or procedure that is occurring
– Payers…Medicare, Medicaid, Private Insurance & Self
– Margins… Nationally for 2011 Medicare margins are close
to 10% and falling from where they have been in prior
years…
– Hospital based… have negative margins for 2011 of -17%
– Overhead ratios can be 40%+…
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BVR's 2013 Online Symposium on Healthcare Valuation: Part 3
Hospice
• Hospice… as defined by Medicare…
– Services that are provided
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Valuation of Home Health Service Providers
◊ Four levels of care… routine, continuous, respite inpatient, general
inpatient
◊ Covered services… nursing, social worker, spiritual, aide, pharmacy, home
medical equipment… integrated care team with all inclusive care/services
related to the “terminal” illness
◊ Concern & care for the family in addition to the patient… bereavement
care for the family up to a year after the passing
– Locations of the patient…where is the “home”… can be an SNF… do
they operate their own “hospice house”??
– Payers…Medicare, Medicaid, Private Insurance, Self,
Charity/contributions/Foundations…
– Margins… Nationally in 2011 … 7 to 8%...
– Overhead ratios can be 40%+
Home Medical Equipment
• Also know as Durable Medical Equipment…
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– Oxygen – concentrators, portal units
– Scooters
– Beds, walkers, wheel chairs
• Home Infusion… IV therapy
– Drug
– Person to administer
• Retail outlets… local pharmacy, national chains,
• Payers… Medicare, Medicaid, Private Insurance, & Self
• Margins are declining and more consolidation of this industry
is occurring
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BVR's 2013 Online Symposium on Healthcare Valuation: Part 3
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Private Duty & In-Home Aide…
Meals on wheels
Staffing/sitter services… this can be in other facilities like a SNF or Hospital
Case management… assist with selecting when and where to move to
facilitate based service… relocations services/moving
Financial and estate planning
Housing with supportive services…personal care needs
Assisted living communities…staffing
Franchised entities…. Competition can be tough…
Payers… Medicaid, Private Insurance & Self
Margins… can be 10%+… depending on payer mix
The overhead ratios should be less than 30%... Depending on regulator
requirements
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Other considerations…
• Other impacts on valuations…
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Other In-Home Care services
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Valuation of Home Health Service Providers
– Sequester with a 2% Medicare payments… no impact on
Medicaid…
– Co-Payments… more out-of –pocket payment expected
from Medicare and Medicaid patients
– CON… some states don’t have
– Licensure… some states don’t have
– US demographics… 10,000 per day retiring for the next
decade??
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BVR's 2013 Online Symposium on Healthcare Valuation: Part 3
• MedPac has indicated that “HH Agencies have a 19%
margin”… this was 2010 data… 3 yrs later rates have
been flat or reduced
• ACA calls for a “rebasing of rates”… it was measured
that this would be a 20% reduction in future rates…
it is to be phased in over 4 years starting in2014
• Co-Insurance on episodes…% or flat rate
• ACO… payment for services as if private pay… what
will be the regulator burden?
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Other considerations for Hospice??
• MedPac has indicated that Hospice margins are
more in line with their expectations in the 5%....
• ACA has future years reductions in market basket
updates… less than 1% increase
• Hospice houses or inpatient facilities… good and
bad…
• Routine day care rate will be adjusted in 2013 –
2014… U shape curve…
• ACO – could be a “carve out” just like with Medicare
Advantage plans
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Other considerations for HH??
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Valuation of Home Health Service Providers
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BVR's 2013 Online Symposium on Healthcare Valuation: Part 3
•
•
•
•
•
Medicare competitive bidding…
Medicare Co-Pays…
Rental – O2 products… shorter terms
Medicaid cuts
Consolidation of the industry…
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Other considerations for other services??
• Agencies that are heavy Medicaid minimal value…
• Cash flow for Medicaid programs can be poor
• Private pay… good cash flow… if you have good
collection process…up front payments??
• Competition…
• Franchise fees…
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Other considerations for HME??
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Valuation of Home Health Service Providers
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BVR's 2013 Online Symposium on Healthcare Valuation: Part 3
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Valuation of Home Health Service Providers
Themes of Health Reform
Payment Reform:
Reward and
increase value
Payment
Payment
Reductions
Reductions
Access to Care
Information
*Quality and EHR
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Reform at the Core will Continue:
The Triple Aim Goals plus….
• Better Care
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Care
Care Reform
Reform
**Wellness
Wellness **Prevention
Prevention
**Chronic
Chronic care
care management
management
– Improve/maintain quality and patient outcomes
– Eliminate avoidable re/admissions
– Eliminate potentially preventable conditions (e.g., never
events)
• Better Health
– Primary Care Driven
– Focus on Prevention & Wellness
• Reduce Cost
– Reduce/eliminate duplication
– Improved coordination
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According to CMS…
The person-centered post-acute care system of the future will:
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Valuation of Home Health Service Providers
– Optimize choice and control of services;
– Ensure that placement decisions are based on patient needs;
– Provide coordinated, high quality care with seamless
transitions between settings;
– Reward excellence by reflecting performance on quality
measures in payment;
– Recognize the critical role of family care giving; and
– Utilize health information technology.
Source: CMS Policy Council Document, “Post-Acute Care Reform Plan,”
September 2006
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Alan Simons
Valuing Home Health Agencies
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Major Home Health Public Companies
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Valuation of Home Health Service Providers
Source: First Research
Home Health Segments by Revenue
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Source: First Research
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Volume of Home Health Transactions
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Valuation of Home Health Service Providers
Source: Irving Levin Senior Care Acquisition Report
Volume of Home Health Transactions
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Home Health Compared to Other Markets
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Dollar Value of Home Health Transactions
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Valuation of Home Health Service Providers
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Valuation of Home Health Service Providers
Who pays for home health care?
27%
41%
Medicare
8%
Medicaid
Private Insurance
24%
Out-Of-Pocket
Home Health Referral Sources
• Patients rarely self refer
• Primary referral sources
–
–
–
–
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Doctors
Hospitals
Insurers
Managed Care Companies
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BVR's 2013 Online Symposium on Healthcare Valuation: Part 3
Major Risk Factors
• Employee turnover
• Concentration of customers (referral sources)
• Recruiting skilled workers
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Valuation of Home Health Service Providers
– Nurse shortage
• Complex regulations
–
–
–
–
Billing fraud
Self referral laws (Stark)
Kickbacks (Anti-Kickback Law)
Nonprofit regulations (if a nonprofit)
◊ Private inurnment, private benefit
Home Health Workers Average Hourly Wages
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Source: Bureau of Labor & Statistics
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Home Health Operating Profit Over Time
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Home Health Operating Profits by Sales
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Home Health Current Ratio Over Time
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Home Health Current Ratio by Sales
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Valuation of Home Health Service Providers
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BVR's 2013 Online Symposium on Healthcare Valuation: Part 3
Hospital Home Health Department
• Generally not as profitable as stand alone home
health
• Difficult to determine true profitability
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Valuation of Home Health Service Providers
– Direct versus indirect costs
– Hospital pay scales and benefits versus stand alone
• Concentration of customers
– The hospital and its physicians
– What happens to customers if home health is sold?
Home Health Employment Growth
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Source: Bureau of Labor & Statistics
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Home Health Growth
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Valuation of Home Health Service Providers
Source: First Research
Key Valuation Questions
• Are there multiple service lines?
• Is this a captive (for example, hospital department) or diverse
business enterprise?
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– Are the margins correct?
◊ If not, can they be corrected?
– Is it a hospital department?
– Is there a management company?
– Quantity and quality of referral sources
• Is management/owner compensation reasonable?
• What are expected future volumes and reimbursement
levels?
• What do future labor costs and supply look like?
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Home Health Valuation Multiples
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Valuation of Home Health Service Providers
.4 sales multiple / 4 EBITDA multiple implies 10.0% EBITDA margin
Problem with Valuation Multiples
• Based on averages
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– EBITDA multiples
◊ Assume all companies have same historical and future earnings
growth
◊ Assumes all companies have same EBITDA margins
– Revenue multiples
◊ Assume all companies have same historical and future earnings
growth
◊ Assumes all companies equally profitable
• Future benefit principle
– The value of any asset is the present value of its economic
benefits
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What’s included in multiples and cap rates?
• Assumptions about tangible assets and capital structure
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Valuation of Home Health Service Providers
– Real estate, furniture and equipment
• Assumptions about historical and future cash flow growth
rates
– Uptrend, downtrend or flat
• Assumptions about EBITDA margins for non-EBITDA multiples
and cap rates
• Assumptions about the business model
– Is it optimum or deficient?
• Do they represent fair market or investment values?
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Market Approach – Pratt's Stats, through 2008
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Valuation Multiples
MVIC To
Sales
Count
Median
Average
25th %tile
75th %tile
12
0.77
0.82
0.54
1.03
MVIC To
EBITDA
4
6.91
6.43
2.60
10.74
MVIC To
EBIT
9
11.35
23.78
3.64
16.65
MVIC To Book
Value Inv Cap
8
4.83
8.39
3.11
8.93
.77 sales multiple / 6.91 EBITDA multiple implies 11.14% EBITDA margin
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BVR's 2013 Online Symposium on Healthcare Valuation: Part 3
Market Approach – Irving Levin Health Care Acquisition Report
2007 – 2008 (2006 – 2007 transactions)
Sales
Multiple
Count
Median
Average
25th
75th
34.00
0.88 x
0.92 x
0.62 x
1.19 x
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Valuation of Home Health Service Providers
EBITDA
Multiple
3.00
9.13 x
11.28 x
0.62 x
1.19 x
.88 sales multiple / 9.13 EBITDA multiple implies 9.64% EBITDA margin
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Market Approach – Irving Levin Health Care
Acquisition Report 2007- 2009 (2006 to 2008 transactions)
Business Type:
Home Health
Count
Minimum
Maximum
Average
10th percentile
25th percentile
Median
75th percentile
90th percentile
Annual
Revenue
Sale Price
49
49
$600,000
$292,000
$1,770,000,000 $1,596,000,000
$89,323,469
$89,233,143
$1,000,000
$763,600
$1,800,000
$1,700,000
$4,500,000
$4,800,000
$24,600,000
$24,500,000
$229,460,000 $188,595,600
Price/
Revenue
49
0.16x
1.80x
0.99x
0.44x
0.69x
1.00x
1.23x
1.57x
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Price/
EBITDA
5
5.36x
17.71x
9.06x
5.65x
6.10x
7.00x
9.13x
14.28x
1.0 sales multiple / 7.0 EBITDA multiple implies 14.29% EBITDA margin
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Market Approach – Irving Levin Health Care
Acquisition Report 2007- 2012 (2006 to 2011 transactions)
Business Type:
Home Health
Count
Minimum
Maximum
Average
10th percentile
25th percentile
Median
75th percentile
90th percentile
Annual
Revenue
80
$600,000
$1,770,000,000
$73,042,375
$1,000,000
$2,875,000
$7,750,000
$27,700,000
$132,550,000
EBITDA
Sale Price
8
95
$2,300,000
$118,000
$298,000,000 $1,596,000,000
$69,687,500
$64,453,863
$3,140,000
$797,000
$4,475,000
$2,350,000
$48,850,000
$4,800,000
$70,300,000
$16,900,000
$149,740,000 $100,340,000
Price/
Revenue
80
0.16 x
1.80 x
0.96 x
0.44 x
0.71 x
0.97 x
1.20 x
1.50 x
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Valuation of Home Health Service Providers
Price/
EBITDA
6
5.36 x
11.42 x
7.44 x
5.48 x
5.73 x
6.55 x
8.60 x
10.28 x
.97 sales multiple / 6.55 EBITDA multiple implies 14.81% EBITDA margin
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Market Approach – Institute of Business
Appraisers 1984 to 2011 transactions
Count
Minimum
Maximum
Average
10th percentile
25th percentile
Median
75th percentile
90th percentile
Annual
Revenue
($'000s)
34
$70
$3,800
$1,026
$194
$434
$844
$1,208
$2,037
Discretionary
Earnings
($'000s)
23
$70
$312
$124
$6
$50
$111
$170
$285
Sale Price
($'000s)
34
$70
$2,200
$531
$51
$188
$425
$689
$1,170
Price/
Revenue
34
0.01
3.36
0.70
0.18
0.28
0.44
0.69
1.44
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Price/
Earnings
22
0.17
54.00
7.04
1.43
2.00
2.85
5.11
15.11
.44 sales multiple / 2.85 earnings multiple implies 15.44% earnings
margin
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Valuation of Home Health Service Providers
Market Approach – Public Company Analysis,
June 30, 2010
Overall
Guideline
Medians
Overall
Guideline
Averages
AMERICAN
HOMEPATIENT
INC.
LINCARE
HOLDINGS
INC.
ROTECH
HEALTHCARE
INC.
ADDUS
HEALTHCARE,
INC.
ALMOST
FAMILY
INC.
AMEDISYS
INC.
ARCADIA
RESOURCES
INC.
GENTIVA
HEALTH
SERVICES
INC.
LHC
GROUP,
INC.
$529.6
$446.5
$334.0
1.0
7.5
8.5
12.7
$897.4
$852.3
$691.9
1.1
11.7
15.5
9.3
$232.6
$208.6
$2.9
0.9
50.8
63.5
-
$3,121.8
$3,042.7
$2,637.0
2.0
10.5
11.8
18.9
$529.6
$446.5
$11.2
0.9
5.1
19.4
-
$181.7
$179.1
$84.0
0.7
9.1
12.5
14.6
$338.8
$328.7
$334.0
1.1
7.9
8.4
14.0
$1,900.1
$1,854.9
$1,675.9
1.3
7.5
8.4
12.7
$116.5
$109.2
$81.8
1.0
-
$1,070.7
$918.3
$833.7
0.8
7.3
8.5
12.8
$584.7
$582.2
$566.3
1.2
6.7
7.0
11.0
Valuation Multiples
Market Value of Invested Capital ($M)
Enterprise Value ($M)
Equity Market Capitalization ($M)
EV to TTM Revenues
EV to TTM EBITDA
EV to TTM EBIT
Current Price to Earnings Ratio
1.0 sales multiple / 7.5 EBITDA multiple implies 13.33% EBITDA margin
Market Approach – Public Company Analysis,
November 30, 2012
45
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Projected
Projected
MVIC/ Projected EBITDA MVIC/
Company Name
Revenue
Revenue EBITDA Margin EBITDA
ALMOST FAMILY INC.
350.15
0.52
31.31
8.9%
5.84
AMEDISYS INC.
1,505.48
0.29
88.07
5.8%
5.03
GENTIVA HEALTH SERVICES INC. 1,736.53
0.72
180.37
10.4%
6.92
LHC GROUP, INC.
649.37
0.54
59.29
9.1%
5.93
Median
1,077.43
0.53
73.68
9.0%
5.89
Average
1,060.38
0.52
89.76
8.6%
5.93
.53 sales multiple / 5.89 EBITDA multiple implies 9.0% EBITDA margin
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Valuation of Home Health Service Providers
Income Approach – Cash Flows to Invested
Capital
Key
1
2
Forecast Years
3
4
5
Terminal
Year
Net income
+ Noncash expenses:
Depreciation
Amortization
+ Interest expense, net of taxes
+/- Working capital
- Capital expenditures
(a)
$ 1,817,518
$ 1,872,043
$ 1,861,557
$ 1,849,091
$ 1,834,542
$ 1,889,971
Cash flow to total invested capital (TIC)
(g)
76,013
(18,370)
(76,013)
(b)
(c)
(d)
(e)
(f)
$ 1,799,148
78,293
(55,661)
(78,293)
$ 1,816,382
80,642
(47,776)
(80,642)
$ 1,813,781
83,062
(48,970)
(83,062)
$ 1,800,120
85,553
(50,194)
(85,553)
$ 1,784,348
85,553
(50,194)
(85,553)
$ 1,839,777
Key
(a)
Normalized net income from forecasted statements of operations.
(b)
Depreciation from forecasted statements of operations.
(c)
Not applicable.
(d)
Not applicable.
(e)
Working capital estimated at 40 days of revenues based on benchmark data.
(f)
Anticipated maintenance capital expenditures based on discussions with management and benchmark data. Terminal year estimated at amount required to sustain business into perpetuity.
(g)
Sum of (a) through (f).
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Morningstar Cost of Capital Summary
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SIC 808 (Home Health Care Services) March 31, 2012
Cost of Capital
Median Cost of Equity CAPM + Size Premium
Median CAPM + Size Premium
Median Debt Cost
Leverage Ratios
Median Debt/Total Capital 5-Yr Avg
Median Debt/Total Capital Current
Profitability
Median Operating Margin 5-Years Avg
Median Operating Current
12.2%
8.6%
5.6%
38.0%
NM
5.6%
NM
What do the underlying Morningstar companies look like?
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BVR's 2013 Online Symposium on Healthcare Valuation: Part 3
Income Approach – Cost of Equity
Buildup Method
Risk-free rate
Equity risk premium
Industry risk premium
Size premium
2.37%
6.62%
-0.47%
6.10%
Systematic risk
Specific company risk
14.62%
2.00%
Equity discount rate
16.62%
Equity discount rate (rounded)
16.60%
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Valuation of Home Health Service Providers
Source
20 Year Treasury as of November 30, 2012
2012 SBBI (historical)
2012 SBBI SIC 80
2012 SBBI (10th decile)
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Income Approach – Weighted Average Cost of Capital
Assumptions:
Tax rate
Cost to borrow
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40.00%
5.04% 7-year Treasury as of 11/30/12 plus 4.0%
Target
Weight
Debt
Equity
21.88%
78.13%
100.00%
Cost
Weighted
Pretax After-Tax
Cost
5.04%
16.62%
3.02%
16.62%
0.66%
12.98%
Weighted average cost of capital
13.64%
Weighted average cost of capital (rounded)
13.60%
Weighted average cost of capital (rounded)
(Less) long-term cash flow growth rate
13.60%
(2.00%)
WACC capitalization rate
11.60%
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Valuation of Home Health Service Providers
Income Approach – WACC Iteration
Amount
$ 3,500
12,500
Percent
21.88%
78.13%
WACC Iteration
Invested capital calculated $ 16,000
100.00%
16,228,828
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Income Approach – Forecast Present Value
Cash flow to total invested capital (TIC)
Present value factors at WACC discount rate
Present value (PV) of cash flows to TIC
1
2
Forecast Years
3
4
5
Terminal
Year
$ 1,799,148
$ 1,816,382
$ 1,813,781
$ 1,800,120
$ 1,784,348
$ 1,839,777
0.93823
0.82591
0.72703
0.63999
0.56337
0.56337
$ 1,688,014
$ 1,500,168
$ 1,318,674
$ 1,152,059
$ 1,005,248
$ 1,036,475
©2013 CliftonLarsonAllen LLP
Debt
Equity
Key
PV of cash flows during forecast years
PV of cash flow at terminal year into perpetuity
(b)
$ 6,664,163
9,113,832
Value of TIC before value of amortization tax benefit
(c)
15,777,995
(Less) initial working capital requirements
(d)
(2,412,732)
Adjusted value of TIC transferred before amortization tax benefit
(e)
13,365,263
Amortization benefit:
Value of TIC before tax benefits
$ 13,365,263
(Less) fair market value of tangible assets transferred, net
(152,535)
(g)
Value of intangible assets before tax benefits
$ 13,212,728
Discount rate
13.60%
Tax rate
40.00%
Tax amortization years
15.00
+
Value of tax benefit from amortization of intangible assets
(a)
(f)
(h)
(i)
(i)
(i)
(j)
2,863,565
Indicated value of total invested capital
+/- Adjustment for investments
(k)
(l)
16,228,828
-
Adjusted value of total invested capital
(m)
16,228,828
(Less) interest-bearing debt assumed
(n)
-
Indicated value of equity
(o)
$ 16,228,828
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52
BVR's 2013 Online Symposium on Healthcare Valuation: Part 3
Reasonableness Tests (Sanity Checks)
Year
1
2
3
4
5
Term
Weighted Average Cost of Capital Discount Rates
12.60%
13.10%
13.60%
14.10%
Cash Flows
$1,799,148
$1,816,382
$1,813,781
$1,800,120
$1,784,348
$1,839,777
$ 1,695,499
1,520,196
1,348,152
1,188,276
1,046,060
10,378,550
$ 1,691,747
1,510,126
1,333,302
1,169,991
1,025,410
9,715,398
$ 1,688,020
1,500,167
1,318,679
1,152,066
1,005,257
9,113,912
$ 1,684,318
1,490,317
1,304,280
1,134,493
985,585
8,566,325
14.60%
$ 1,680,639
1,480,575
1,290,100
1,117,263
966,382
8,066,107
Value of TIC before amortization tax benefit
(Less) initial working capital requirements
17,176,733
(2,412,732)
16,445,974
(2,412,732)
15,778,101
(2,412,732)
15,165,318
(2,412,732)
14,601,066
(2,412,732)
Value of TIC transferred before tax benefit
Value of amortization tax benefit
14,764,001
3,354,374
14,033,242
3,095,173
13,365,369
2,863,588
12,752,586
2,655,850
12,188,334
2,468,818
Indicated value of total invested capital
Adjustments (see Note 1)
18,118,375
-
17,128,415
-
16,228,957
-
15,408,436
-
14,657,152
-
Adjusted value of total invested capital
(Less) interest-bearing debt assumed
18,118,375
-
17,128,415
-
16,228,957
-
15,408,436
-
14,657,152
-
Indicated value of equity
$ 18,118,375
$ 17,128,415
$ 16,228,957
$ 15,408,436
$ 14,657,152
5.15x
0.83x
5.69x
0.82x
4.87x
0.79x
5.38x
0.78x
4.61x
0.74x
5.09x
0.74x
4.38x
0.71x
4.84x
0.70x
4.16x
0.67x
4.60x
0.67x
Note 1:
©2013 CliftonLarsonAllen LLP
Valuation of Home Health Service Providers
No adjustment required.
Implied Multiples
Implied 2012 EBITDA Multiple
Implied Multiple of 2012 Revenues
Implied Year 1 Estimated EBITDA Multiple
Multiple of Year 1 Revenues
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53
Valuation Synthesis & Conclusion
Approach and Method
Income
Discounted cash flow method
Market Approach
Guideline public company method
Guideline merged and aquired method
Cost Approach
Asset accumulation method
Total Weighted Equity Value
Equity Value
Selected
Weighting
$16,237,666
60.00%
$16,449,127
$18,163,841
Not applicable
Weighted
Equity Value
$
9,742,600
30.00%
10.00%
0.00%
100.00%
4,934,738
1,816,384
$
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16,493,722
54
BVR's 2013 Online Symposium on Healthcare Valuation: Part 3
Questions?
Gary R. Massey, CPA
Partner
CliftonLarsonAllen LLP
704-998-5216
[email protected]
©2013 CliftonLarsonAllen LLP
©2013 CliftonLarsonAllen LLP
Valuation of Home Health Service Providers
Alan B. Simons, CPA/ABV/CFF, CMPE
Partner
CliftonLarsonAllen LLP
267-419-1120
[email protected]
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