UK Statistics Authority
1 Drummond Gate
London
SW1V 2QQ
Telephone:
E-mail:
Website:
0845 604 1857
[email protected]
www.statisticsauthority.gov.uk
Chair of the UK Statistics Authority, Sir Andrew Dilnot CBE
David Hanson MP
House of Commons
LONDON
SW1A 0AA
9 October 2014
Dear Mr Hanson,
MIGRATION STATISTICS
Thank you for your letter dated 8 September 2014 regarding the statement below made
within an article in the Daily Telegraph published on 6 September and written by the Minister
for Immigration James Brokenshire MP:
“Our reforms are building an immigration system that works in the national interest.
By reforming family and work visa routes, cracking down on abuse in the student sector,
and cutting access to benefits for migrants we have cut net migration by a quarter since
its peak under Labour.”1
The latest figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) estimate that net migration
between April 2013 and March 2014 was 243,000 2. This is 77,000 (24 per cent) lower than
the recent peak of 320,000 which occurred in the year ending June 2005. These may be the
figures to which Mr Brokenshire was referring.
While it is estimated that net migration has fallen by about a quarter since the peak in the
year ending June 2005, this reduction did not occur solely during the term of the present
Government. As the chart below illustrates, estimated net migration decreased from 320,000
in the year ending June 2005 to 244,000 in the year ending June 2010. Since then,
estimated net migration fell further to 154,000 in the year ending September 2012, but has
since increased to 243,000 in the year ending March 2014.
It should be noted that statistical estimates derived from survey sources such as those used
to produce ONS’s Long-term International Migration series are subject to sampling variability,
and estimates have confidence intervals around them which will vary year-on-year. The 95
1
James Brokenshire MP, Daily Telegraph, Calais crisis: 'Britain is no soft touch when it comes to illegal
immigration', September 2014 available from:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/france/11079107/Calais-crisis-Britain-is-no-soft-touch-whenit-comes-to-illegal-immigration.html
2
ONS, Migration Statistics Quarterly report, August 2014 available from:
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/migration1/migration-statistics-quarterly-report/august-2014/index.html
per cent confidence intervals between the year ending March 2012 and the year ending
March 2014 are shown in the chart below.
Long-term international migration estimates since 1997
700
600
Thousands
500
400
300
200
100
YE Jun 97
YE Dec 97
YE Jun 98
YE Dec 98
YE Jun 99
YE Dec 99
YE Jun 00
YE Dec 00
YE Jun 01
YE Dec 01
YE Jun 02
YE Dec 02
YE Jun 03
YE Dec 03
YE Jun 04
YE Dec 04
YE Jun 05
YE Dec 05
YE Jun 06
YE Dec 06
YE Jun 07
YE Dec 07
YE Jun 08
YE Dec 08
YE Jun 09
YE Dec 09
YE Jun 10
YE Dec 10
YE Jun 11
YE Dec 11
YE Jun 12
YE Dec 12
YE Jun 13p
YE Dec 13p
0
Net Migration
Immigration
Emigration
Source: Data from ONS Long-term International Migration figures, table 1, 28 August 2014.
1. Data for 2013 and 2014 are provisional.
2. Estimates of net migration between 2001 and 2011 have been revised in light of the results of the 2011
Census. Estimates are generally available quarterly but only the mid-year and calendar year figures
were revised in light of the 2011 Census so figures for year ending March and September are not
available between 2001 and 2011.
3. Confidence intervals prior to 2012 are not available on a consistent basis.
I hope this reply is useful. I am copying it to the Minister of State for Immigration, James
Brokenshire MP; the National Statistician, John Pullinger; and Ed Humpherson, the
Authority’s Director General for Regulation.
Yours sincerely,
Sir Andrew Dilnot CBE