1. No category

The Power of Data for Improved Natural Resource
Governance
Selected Empirical Illustrations for Framing of
Panel
http://www.resourcegovernance.org/news/october-9washington-power-data-transform-natural-resource-governanceand-drive-economic-develo
Daniel Kaufmann
Natural Resource Governance Institute (NRGI)
Panel at OSF, Washington, DC, October 9th, 2014
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Resource rents vs. aid in Sub-Saharan Africa
$400 billion
$50 billion
Total aid (ODA)
Resource rents
2
For the World -- Governance Matters: 300% Development
dividend of improved governance in RR (& other) countries
GDP per capita (PPP)
45,000
EXTRACTIVE INTENSIVE
OTHER COUNTRIES
30,820
12,712
10,272
10,000
6,851
3,941
5,000
0
Poor Corruption Control
Average Corruption
Control
Good Corruption
Control
Sources: GDP per capita (atop each column) from World Bank World Development Indicators, 2012.
Corruption Control data from Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI), 2012. Countries grouped into terciles
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based on WGI Control of Corruption scores. Extractive Intensive country classification according to IMF (2010).
100
80
60
40
20
1. Norway
2. United States (Gulf of Mexico)
3. United Kingdom
4. Australia (Western Australia)
5. Brazil
6. Mexico
7. Canada (Alberta)
8. Chile
9. Colombia
10. Trinidad and Tobago
11. Peru
12. India
13. Timor-Leste
14. Indonesia
15. Ghana
16. Liberia
17. Zambia
18. Ecuador
19. Kazakhstan
20. Venezuela
21. South Africa
22. Russia
23. Philippines
24. Bolivia
25. Morocco
26. Mongolia
27. Tanzania
28. Azerbaijan
29. Iraq
30. Botswana
31. Bahrain
32. Gabon
33. Guinea
34. Malaysia
35. Sierra Leone
36. China
37. Yemen
38. Egypt
39. Papua New Guinea
40. Nigeria
41. Angola
42. Kuwait
43. Vietnam
44. Congo (DRC)
45. Algeria
46. Mozambique
47. Cameroon
48. Saudi Arabia
49. Afghanistan
50. South Sudan
51. Zimbabwe
52. Cambodia
53. Iran
54. Qatar
55. Libya
56. Equatorial Guinea
57. Turkmenistan
58. Myanmar
Extent of Transparency & Accountability Deficit: The
Resource Governance Index (RGI) – 58 countries
80% of countries do not meet satisfactory governance standards
98
92
88
85
80
77 76 75
74 74 73
Satisfactory (71-100)
Partial (51-70)
Weak (41-50)
Failing (0-40)
70
68
66
63 62
61
58 57
56 56 56
54 53 53
51 50
48 47 47 47
46 46 46 46
43 43 43 43 42 42
41 41
39 38
37
34 34 33
31 31
29 28
26
19
13
5 4
0
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RGI Results for the 58 countries
Evolution of Voice & Accountability Indicator:
On balance, closing of civic space (in spite of formal
government commitment to transparency)
Average Voice and Accountability
Worldwide Governance Indicator Score
-0.4
← EITI accession
-0.5
-0.6
-0.7
Period
Notes: Preliminary, analysis in progress. Calculations performed with 35 countries in EITI with data following EITI accession; all are emerging/developing
countries (excl. Norway). Conservative assumptions regarding trend in recent years. Source: 2013 World Bank Worldwide Governance Indicators
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Transparency has to be complemented by Accountability:
Control of Corruption vs Voice & Accountability (WGI)
2013 Control of Corruption Worldwide
Governance Indicator Score
3
2.5
r = 0.78
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
-2.5
-2
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
-0.5
-1
-1.5
-2
2013 Voice & Accountability Worldwide Governance Indicator Score
Note: Red data points are the 55 resource rich countries according to the IMF.
Source: IMF, 2013 World Bank Worldwide Governance Indicators
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Control of Corruption:
also a reversal, recent deterioration
Average Control of Corruption
Worldwide Governance Indicator Score
-0.5
← EITI accession
-0.6
-0.7
-0.8
-0.9
Period
Notes: Preliminary, work in progress. Calculations performed with 35 countries in EITI with data following EITI accession; all are emerging/developing
countries (excl. Norway). Conservative assumptions regarding trend in recent years. Source: 2013 World Bank Worldwide Governance Indicators
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Share of the # of Poor living
under $2.00 a day in NonResource Rich Countries vs.
Resource Rich Countries,
1990 & 2030
Share of Poor
in Resource
Rich
Countries:
20%
Share of Poor
in NonResource Rich
Countries:
80%
Share of Poor
in NonResource Rich
Countries:
50%
1990
Share of Poor
in Resource
Rich Countries:
50%
2030
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Managing Volatile Revenues: Contrasts
Iran
Chile
40.0%
30.0%
20.0%
10.0%
2011
2009
2007
2005
2003
2001
1999
-10.0%
1997
0.0%
-20.0%
-30.0%
80.0%
70.0%
60.0%
50.0%
40.0%
30.0%
20.0%
10.0%
0.0%
-10.0%
-20.0%
Government revenue growth
(pesos)
Government revenue growth (rials)
Government expenditure
growth (pesos)
Government expenditure growth
(rials)
Shedding light
on Oil Sales:
Swiss trading
companies,
African oil and
the risks of
opacity (NRGI:
2014)
Governance Matters for Investors, Drilling:
Geo-Mapping of Oil & Gas Well, US vs. Mexico, 1960
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Geo-Mapping of Oil & Gas Well, US vs. Mexico, 2010
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Illustration of Power of Open Data:
Jubilee field data, Ghana (preliminary)
3,000
2,000
1,000
$m
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
-1,000
-2,000
-3,000
-4,000
Cash flow before tax
Gov revenue
Cumulative cash flow before tax
Illustration: Projections of Financial Flows from the
Jubilee field (Ghana –preliminary)
Distribution of total oil revenue ($m)
5000
4500
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
2011
2012
Government
2013
2014
2015
Operating costs
2016
2017
2018
Capital cost recovery
2019
2020
Profit
On the Natural Resource Charter [the ‘charter’]
Transformation of extractive wealth to prosperity requires an
unbroken “flow of value” …(and data throughout)
…government needs to make a chain of good decisions
Discovery
& deciding
to extract
Getting a
good deal
Managing
revenues
Investing for
sustainable
development
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Domestic governance
Discovery &
deciding to
extract
Getting a
good
deal
Managing
revenues
Investing for
sustainable
development
International governance
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The Charter governance & decision chain components are
translated into 12 specific precepts covering key legal,
institutional and policy issues
Domestic governance
1. Forming a strategy & building institutions
2. Ensuring accountability & transparency
Discovery & deciding
to extract
3. Exploration & choosing operators
Getting a good deal
4. Taxation
5. Local impacts
6. National resource companies
Managing the
revenues
Investing for
development
International
governance
7. Allocating the revenues
8. Smoothing expenditure volatility
9. Improving public expenditure
10. Engaging private sector
11. Role of international companies
12. Role of international governance actors
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