An Open Letter on the Keystone XL Tar Sands Pipeline from Scientists and Economists April 7, 2014 President Barack Obama The White House 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue NW Washington, DC 20500 Secretary John Kerry U.S. Department of State 2201 C Street NW Washington, DC 20520 Dear President Obama and Secretary Kerry, As scientists and economists, we are concerned about climate change and its impacts. We urge you to reject the Keystone XL tar sands oil pipeline as a project that will contribute to climate change at a time when we should be doing all we can to put clean energy alternatives in place. As you both have made clear, climate change is a very serious problem. We must address climate change by decarbonizing our energy supply. A critical first step is to stop making climate change worse by tapping into disproportionately carbon-intensive energy sources like tar sands bitumen. The Keystone XL pipeline will drive expansion of the energy-intensive strip-mining and drilling of tar sands from under Canada’s Boreal forest, increasing global carbon emissions. Keystone XL is a step in the wrong direction. President Obama, you said in your speech in Georgetown last year that “allowing the Keystone pipeline to be built requires a finding that doing so would be in our nation’s interest. And our national interest will be served only if this project does not significantly exacerbate the problem of carbon pollution.” We agree that climate impact is important and evidence shows that Keystone XL will significantly contribute to climate change. Fuels produced from tar sands result in more greenhouse gas emissions over their lifecycle than fuels produced from conventional oil, including heavy crudes processed in some Gulf Coast refineries. As the main pathway for tar sands to reach overseas markets, the Keystone XL pipeline would cause a sizeable expansion of tar sands production and also an increase in the related greenhouse gas pollution. The State Department review confirmed this analysis under the scenario that best meets the reality of the opposition to alternative pipeline proposals and the higher costs of other ways of transporting diluted bitumen such as rail. The review found: “The total lifecycle emissions associated with production, refining, and combustion of 830,000 bpd of oil sands crude oil is approximately 147 to 168 MMTCO2e per year. The annual lifecycle GHG emissions from 830,000 bpd of the four reference crudes examined in this section are estimated to be 124 to 159 MMTCO2e. The range of incremental GHG emissions for crude oil that would be transported by the proposed Project is estimated to be 1.3 to 27.4 MMTCO2e annually.” 1 To put these numbers into perspective, the potential incremental annual emissions of 27.4 MMTCO2e is more than the emissions that seven coal-fired power plants emit in one year. And over the 50-year expected lifespan of the pipeline, the total emissions from Keystone XL could amount to as much as 8.4 billion metric tons CO2e. These are emissions that can and should be avoided with a transition to clean energy. The contribution of the Keystone XL tar sands pipeline to climate change is real and important, especially given the commitment of the United States and other world leaders to stay within two degrees Celsius of global warming. And yet, the State Department environmental review chose an inconsistent model for its “most likely” scenarios, using business-as-usual energy scenarios that would lead to a catastrophic six degrees Celsius rise in global warming. Rejecting Keystone XL is necessary for the United States to be consistent with its climate commitments. Six degrees Celsius of global warming has no place in a sound climate plan. Secretary Kerry, in your speech in Jakarta, you said, “The science of climate change is leaping out at us like a scene from a 3D movie – warning us – compelling us to act.” Rejecting the Keystone XL tar sands pipeline would be a decision based on sound science. The world is looking to the United States to lead through strong climate action at home. This includes rejecting projects that will make climate change worse such as the Keystone XL tar sands pipeline. Sincerely, John Abraham, Ph.D. Professor University of St. Thomas Anthony Bernhardt, Ph.D. Physicist and Program Leader (retired) Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Philip W. Anderson, Ph.D. Nobel Prize (Physics 1977) Emeritus Professor Princeton University Damien C. Brady, Ph.D. Assistant Professor of Marine Science Darling Marine Center University of Maine Tim Arnold, Ph.D. Assistant Project Scientist Scripps Institution of Oceanography University of California, San Diego Julie A. Brill, Ph.D. Director, Collaborative Program in Developmental Biology, and Professor, Department of Molecular Genetics University of Toronto Senior Scientist, Cell Biology Program The Hospital for Sick Children Kenneth J. Arrow, Ph.D. Nobel Prize (Economics 1972) Professor emeritus of Economics and of Management Science and Engineering Stanford University Gary Brouhard, Ph.D. Department of Biology McGill University Roger Bales, Ph.D. Professor of Engineering University of California, Merced Ken Caldeira, Ph.D. Senior Scientist Carnegie Institution for Science Paul H. Beckwith, M.S. Part-time professor: climatology/meteorology Department of Geography University of Ottawa Grant Cameron, Ph.D. Coastal Data Information Program (CDIP) Scripps Institution of Oceanography University of California, San Diego 2 Shelagh D. Campbell, Ph.D. Professor, Biological Sciences University of Alberta Steve Easterbrook, Ph.D. Professor of Computer Science University of Toronto Kai M. A. Chan, Ph.D. Associate Professor & Tier 2 Canada Research Chair (Biodiversity & Ecosystem Services) Graduate Advisor, RMES Institute for Resources, Environment & Sustainability University of British Columbia Anne Ehrlich, Ph.D. Biology Department Stanford University Paul R. Ehrlich, Ph.D. Bing Professor of Population Studies and President, Center for Conservation Biology Stanford University Eugene Cordero, Ph.D. Professor, Department of Meteorology and Climate Science San Jose State University Henry Erlich, Ph.D. Scientist Center for Genetics Children’s Hospital Research Institute Rosemary Cornell, Ph.D. Professor, Molecular Biology and Biochemistry Simon Fraser University Alejandro Frid, Ph.D. Science Coordinator Central Coast Indigenous Resource Alliance Gretchen C. Daily, Ph.D. Bing Professor of Environmental Science Stanford University Konrad Gajewski, Ph.D. Laboratory for Paleoclimatology and Climatology Department of Geography University of Ottawa Timothy Daniel, Ph.D. Economist U.S. Federal Trade Commission Miriam Diamond, Ph.D. Professor Department of Earth Sciences Cross-appointed to: Department of Chemical Engineering and Applied Sciences Dalla Lana School of Public Health School of the Environment Department of Physical and Environmental Sciences University of Toronto Eric Galbraith, Ph.D. Assistant Professor Department of Earth and Planetary Science McGill University Lawrence M. Dill, Ph.D., FRSC Professor Emeritus Simon Fraser University Alexander J. Glass, Ph.D. Emeritus Associate Director Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Simon Donner, Ph.D. Associate Professor, Department of Geography University of British Columbia John R. Glover, Ph.D. Associate Professor, Biochemistry University of Toronto Roland Droitsch, Ph.D. President KM21 Associates Ursula Goodenough, Ph.D. Professor, Department of Biology Washington University in St. Louis Nicholas Dulvy, Ph.D. Professor, Canada Research Chair in Marine Biodiversity and Conservation Biological Sciences Simon Fraser University Stephanie Green, Ph.D. David H. Smith Conservation Research Fellow Oregon State University Geoffrey Gearheart, Ph.D. Scientist, Center for Marine Biodiversity and Biomedicine Scripps Institution of Oceanography University of California, San Diego 3 Steven Hackett, Ph.D. Professor of Economics Associated Faculty, Energy Technology & Policy Humboldt State University Mark Jaccard, Ph.D., FRSC Professor School of Resource and Environmental Management Simon Fraser University Joshua B. Halpern, Ph.D. Professor, Department of Chemistry Howard University Louise E. Jackson, Ph.D. Professor, Department of Land, Air and Water Resources University of California Davis Alexandra Hangsterfer, M.S. Geological Collections Manager Scripps Institution of Oceanography University of California, San Diego Pete Jumars, Ph.D. Professor of Marine Sciences Darling Marine Center University of Maine James Hansen, Ph.D. Adjunct Professor Climate Science, Awareness and Solutions Columbia University Earth Institute David Keith, Ph.D. Gordon McKay Professor of Applied Physics School of Engineering and Applied Sciences (SEAS); and, Professor of Public Policy, Kennedy School of Government Harvard University John Harte, Ph.D. Professor of Ecosystem Sciences Energy and Resources Group University of California, Berkeley Jeremy T. Kerr, Ph.D. University Research Chair in Macroecology and Conservation Professor of Biology University of Ottawa H. Criss Hartzell, Ph.D. Professor Emory University School of Medicine Bryan Killett, Ph.D. Jet Propulsion Lab Danny Harvey, Ph.D. Professor, Department of Geography University of Toronto Keith W. Kisselle, Ph.D. Associate Professor of Biology & Environmental Science Academic Chair of Center for Environmental Studies Austin College Rodrick A. Hay, Ph.D. Dean and Professor of Geography College of Natural and Behavioral Sciences California State University Dominguez Hills Janet E. Kübler, Ph.D. Senior Research Scientist California State University at Northridge Karen Holl, Ph.D. Professor of Environmental Studies University of California, Santa Cruz Sherman Lewis, Ph.D. Professor Emeritus of Political Science California State University Hayward Robert Howarth, Ph.D. The David R. Atkinson Professor of Ecology & Environmental Biology Cornell University Michael E. Loik, Ph.D. Associate Professor of Environmental Studies University of California, Santa Cruz Jonathan Isham, Jr., Ph.D. Professor of Economics Middlebury College Michael C. MacCracken, Ph.D. Chief Scientist for Climate Change Programs Climate Institute Andrew Iwaniuk, Ph.D. Associate Professor University of Lethbridge Scott A. Mandia, M.S. Professor/Asst. Chair, Department of Physical Sciences Suffolk County Community College 4 Dana Nuccitelli, M.S. Environmental Scientist Tetra Tech, Inc. Michael Mann, Ph.D. Distinguished Professor and Director of Earth System Science Center Penn State University Michael Oppenheimer, Ph.D. Professor of Geosciences and International Affairs Princeton University Adam Martiny, Ph.D. Associate Professor in Marine Science Department of Earth System Science University of California, Irvine Wendy J. Palen, Ph.D. Assistant Professor, Earth to Ocean Research Group Simon Fraser University Damon Matthews, Ph.D. Associate Professor and Concordia University Research Chair Geography, Planning and Environment Concordia University Edward A. Parson, Ph.D. Dan and Rae Emmett Professor of Environmental Law Faculty Co-Director Emmett Center on Climate Change and the Environment UCLA School of Law James J. McCarthy, Ph.D. Alexander Agassiz Professor of Biological Oceanography Harvard University Raymond T. Pierrehumbert, Ph.D. Louis Block Professor in the Geophysical Sciences The University of Chicago Susan K. McConnell, Ph.D. Susan B. Ford Professor Dunlevie Family University Fellow Department of Biology Stanford University Richard Plevin, Ph.D. Research Scientist NextSTEPS (Sustainable Transportation Energy Pathways) Institute of Transportation Studies University of California, Davis Dominick Mendola, Ph.D. Senior Development Engineer Scripps Institution of Oceanography University of California, San Diego John Pollack, M.S. Meteorologist; and, National Weather Service forecaster (retired) Faisal Moola, Ph.D. Adjunct Professor, Faculty of Forestry University of Toronto; and, Adjunct Professor, Faculty of Environmental Studies York University Jessica Dawn Pratt, Ph.D. Education & Outreach Coordinator Center for Environmental Biology University of California, Irvine William Moomaw, Ph.D. Professor, The Fletcher School Tufts University Lynne M. Quarmby, Ph.D. Professor & Chair Molecular Biology & Biochemistry Simon Fraser University Jens Mühle, Dr. rer. nat. Scripps Institution of Oceanography University of California, San Diego Rebecca Rolph, M.S. Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Hamburg, Germany; and, Klimacampus, University of Hamburg Richard B. Norgaard, Ph.D. Professor Emeritus of Energy and Resources University of California, Berkeley Thomas Roush, MD Columbia University School of Public Health (retired) Gretchen North, Ph.D. Professor of Biology Occidental College 5 Maureen Ryan, Ph.D. Research Associate, Simon Fraser University; and, Postdoctoral Researcher, University of Washington John M. R. Stone, Ph.D. Adjunct Professor Carleton University Anne K. Salomon, Ph.D. Assistant Professor School of Resource and Environmental Management Simon Fraser University David Suzuki, Ph.D. Emeritus Professor Sustainable Development Research Institute University of British Columbia Casey Schmidt, Ph.D. Assistant Research Professor Desert Research Institute Division of Hydrologic Sciences Jennifer Taylor, Ph.D. Assistant Professor University of California, San Diego Michael S. Tift, M.S. Doctoral Student Scripps Institution of Oceanography University of California, San Diego Peter C. Schulze, Ph.D. Professor of Biology & Environmental Science Director, Center for Environmental Studies Austin College Cali Turner Tomaszewicz, M.S. Doctoral Student, Biological Sciences Department of Ecology, Behavior & Evolution University of California, San Diego Jason Scorse, Ph.D. Associate Professor Monterrey Institute of International Studies Middlebury College Till Wagner, Ph.D. Scientist, Scripps Institution of Oceanography University of California, San Diego Jamie Scott, MD, Ph.D. Professor and Canada Research Chair Department of Molecular Biology & Biochemistry Faculty of Science and Faculty of Health Sciences Simon Fraser University Barrie Webster, Ph.D. Professor (retired) University of Manitoba Michael A. Silverman, Ph.D. Associate Professor, Department of Biological Sciences Simon Fraser University Richard Weinstein, Ph.D. Lecturer University of Tennessee, Knoxville Leonard S. Sklar, Ph.D. Associate Professor Earth & Climate Sciences Department San Francisco State University Anthony LeRoy Westerling, Ph.D. Associate Professor of Environmental Engineering and Geography University of California, Merced Jerome A. Smith, Ph.D. Research Oceanographer Scripps Institution of Oceanography University of California, San Diego Mark L. Winston, Ph.D., FRSC Academic Director and Fellow, Center for Dialogue Simon Fraser University Richard C. J. Somerville, Ph.D. Distinguished Professor Emeritus and Research Professor Scripps Institution of Oceanography University of California, San Diego George M. Woodwell, Ph.D. Member, National Academy of Sciences, and Founder and Director Emeritus The Woods Hole Research Center Brandon M. Stephens, M.S. Graduate Student Researcher Scripps Institution of Oceanography University of California, San Diego Kirsten Zickfeld, Ph.D. Professor of Climatology Simon Fraser University 6