Opening Bell October 21, 2014 Results: Biocon, HDFC Bank, KPIT, Cairn India, JSW Steel, Mahindra CIE, PNB, SKF, Indoco, McLeod Russel, South Indian Bank; China GDP Index Movement (past one month) Key Developments BSE (RHS) • Exide Industries’ Q2 results came below our and Street estimates on the operating margins and profitability front while revenues came in line with estimates • Warburg Pincus Llc has invested $200 million in Kerala based Kalyan Jewellers for a minority stake • JSW Steel is expected to report sales volumes of 3.1 MT in Q2FY15 with EBITDA/tonne of approx | 8000/tonne • Biocon’s revenues are expected to grow ~14% YoY on the back of 22% growth in the research services business and 20% growth in branded formulations • Cairn India’s revenues are expected to decline 8.2% YoY to | 15418.3 crore on the back of a decline in crude oil prices while PAT is expected to increase sharply QoQ to | 1117.7 crore due to an exceptional item in the last quarter • Indoco’s revenues are expected to grow ~19% YoY on the back of 24% growth in export formulations on the back of a pick-up of sales in the newly entered geographies and 18% growth in the domestic formulations business Sensex Nifty 20-Oct 16-Oct 23000 13-Oct 24000 7400 9-Oct 25000 7600 7-Oct 26000 7800 30-Sep 27000 8000 26-Sep 28000 8200 24-Sep 8400 22-Sep Markets Yesterday • Domestic markets closed positive after a high run throughout the day mainly after the ruling party's victory in two state assembly elections of Maharashtra and Haryana and on news the government has raised the price of gas • US markets closed positive on the back of largely upbeat US economic data on the back of easing concerns about an Ebola outbreak in the US Today’s Highlights 18-Sep Market Outlook • Indian markets are expected to open flat to positive on the back of reforms announced by the central government as well as positive global cues. Domestically, sectors such as coal, mining, power, steel, cement and banks are expected to be in focus. NSE (LHS) Close Previous Chg (%) MTD(%) YTD(%) P/E (1yr fwd) 26,430 26,109 1.2 -0.8 24.8 16.8 7,879 7,879 0.0 -1.1 25.0 16.6 Institutional Activity FII (| cr) DII (| cr) CY12 127,034 -55,612 CY13 112,221 -74,125 YTD CY14 81,256 -29,314 Yesterday Last 5 Days 1,040 -2,675 -166 2,298 World Indices – Monthly performance Shanghai 2,360 1.2% BSE 26,430 -2.4% NSE 7,879 -3.0% Dow Jones 16,400 -4.5% Nasdaq 4,316 -5.8% Kospi 1,920 -6.0% Nikkei 15,002 -7.4% U.K. 6,267 -8.3% France 3,991 -10.5% Germany 8,718 -11.0% Nifty Heat Map United Spirits DLF Lupin Hero Moto SBI Bharti Airtel Tech M. BHEL Cairn India HCL Tech 2,556.3 7.7% 115.2 4.1% 1,386.8 2.9% 2,937.7 2.2% 2,569.5 1.9% 401.7 1.5% 2,296.1 1.0% 228.1 0.6% 276.5 0.1% 1,496.4 -0.6% Ultratech Axis Bank L&T Sesa Sterlite NTPC HUL Indusind Bank M&M IDFC TCS 2,450.3 5.7% 417.9 4.0% 1,495.3 2.9% 237.7 2.1% 143.5 1.8% 736.6 1.4% 667.3 1.0% 1,260.7 0.6% 139.6 0.0% 2,423.3 -0.7% ONGC 419.0 5.5% Tata Motors 494.7 Ambuja Cement 212.9 Maruti Bajaj Auto ACC 4.0% 2.7% 3,003.7 2.1% 2,412.6 1.7% 1,424.2 1.2% HDFC Bank 893.8 Sun Pharma 801.6 NMDC Infosys 1.0% 0.4% 159.7 -0.1% 3,812.4 -1.0% ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research Hindalco PNB GAIL Tata power Dr Reddy 146.5 5.1% 955.5 3.9% 459.0 2.5% 86.8 2.1% 2,966.3 1.6% Asian Paints 647.6 Power Grid 135.1 Kotak Bank 1,003.9 RIL Wipro 1.2% 0.7% 0.4% 935.1 -0.3% 556.4 -1.7% BPCL Coal India HDFC Ltd ICICI Bank Cipla Grasim Ind Tata Steel Bank of Baroda ITC JSPL 696.9 4.5% 361.3 3.0% 1,020.1 2.3% 1,536.9 2.1% 604.3 1.5% 3,317.2 1.2% 450.2 0.6% 873.7 0.2% 352.0 -0.6% 135.5 -8.2% Markets Today Commodities Gold (|/10 gm) Silver (|/kg) Crude ($/barrel) Copper ($/tonne) Currency USD/INR EUR/USD USD/YEN ADRs HDFC Bank ICICI Bank Tata Motors Infosys Dr Reddys Labs Close Previous Change (%) MTD(%) YTD(%) 27,328 37,728 85.5 6609 27,296 38,346 85.4 6689 0.1 -1.6 0.1 -1.2 2.0 -2.7 -9.7 -1.7 -0.8 -13.1 -22.9 -10.4 61.36 1.28 106.79 61.44 1.28 106.95 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.6 1.3 2.7 0.7 -6.9 -1.4 49.7 53.0 44.4 62.2 48.8 48.9 52.2 42.5 62.0 48.8 1.7 1.6 4.4 0.3 0.0 2.1 NA -7.9 4.7 -2.9 42.0 NA 38.0 9.6 19.0 Exchange Cash Turnover (| crore) Sectoral Index Sector 20000 10-Oct 13-Oct 3,408 15,818 5000 3,096 17,006 10000 3,235 17,400 15000 3,226 15,754 14-Oct 16-Oct 17-Oct 20-Oct 0 BSE Cash NSE Cash NSE Derivative Turnover (| crore) 100000 0 10-Oct 13-Oct 14-Oct 232,798 200000 256,136 300000 241,296 Prior Values 3,979.29bln IN -1.2bln $ 26.96bln $ 312.74bln $ 4.60% 4.50% 37.8bln $ 0.50% -1.00% -30.7bln $ 10.84bln $ 5.20% 4.50% 3.74% 3.45% 4.00% 8.00% 7.00% 227,361 Latest Values -7.8bln $ 28.9bln $ 5.70% 4.70% 43.2bln $ 0.40% -1.40% -34.6bln $ 14.25bln $ 3.52% 1.33% 2.38% 2.84% 4.00% 8.00% 7.00% 2,427 13,389 Release Date 31-Oct 1-Sep 14-Oct 24-Oct 29-Aug 30-May 14-Oct 10-Oct 10-Oct 1-Sep 14-Oct 14-Oct 14-Oct 14-Oct 14-Oct 30-Sep 30-Sep 30-Sep 189,542 Period Sep Q2 Sep w/e Q1 12M Sep Aug Aug Q2 Sep Sep Sep Sep Sep N/A N/A N/A 3,056 15,857 Key Domestic Economic Indicator Fed Fiscal Deficit Current Account Exports - USD FX Reserves, USD Final GDP Quarterly yy GDP Annual Imports - USD Industrial Output yy Manufacturing Output Trade Deficit - RBI Trade Deficit Govt - USD WPI Food yy WPI Fuel yy WPI Inflation yy WPI Manufacturing Inflation yy RBI Cash Reserve Ratio RBI Repo Rate RBI Reverse Repo Rate 236,318 Key Data Points 16-Oct 17-Oct 20-Oct NSE Derivative Sectoral Performance – Monthly Returns (%) Close Previous Change % Change Volume Auto 17388.2 17018.8 369.4 2.2 1109000 Banks 18564.4 18240.2 324.2 1.8 3328000 BSE Small Cap 10363.5 10314.0 49.5 0.5 52369000 Capital Goods 4655000 14548.3 14244.2 304.1 2.1 Consumer Durables 9395.1 9281.4 113.7 1.2 428000 FMCG 7339.7 7308.1 31.6 0.4 1868000 Healthcare 13632.3 13467.2 165.2 1.2 758000 IT 10047.2 10131.0 -83.8 -0.8 633000 Metals 11022.6 10852.4 170.2 1.6 7234000 Mid Cap 9376.1 9272.5 103.6 1.1 51767000 Oil & Gas 10747.0 10542.1 204.8 1.9 4034000 Power 2017.8 1988.9 28.9 1.5 9979000 PSU 8064.2 7856.5 207.7 2.6 13202000 Real Estate 1442.2 1429.6 12.5 0.9 12902000 Banks PSU FMCG Consumer Durables Oil & Gas Healthcare Power Capital Goods Auto Mid Cap IT BSE Small Cap Metals Real Estate -18.7 -20.0 0.5 0.2 -1.9 -2.0 -2.4 -2.6 -3.2 -3.5 -3.9 -5.0 -5.0 -7.4 -9.3 -15.0 -10.0 (%) -5.0 0.0 5.0 Key News for Today Company/Industry News Indian coal sector The government has brought an ordinance to facilitate the e-auction of coal blocks for private companies View The user industry will be able to acquire mines through a transparent e-auction process in the medium-term. This will ensure fuel supply to companies in future Hero Motorcorp With a view to becoming a global twowheeler player, HMCL plans to raise annual production capacity to 12 million units by 2020, with ~20 manufacturing plants. Focus on R&D and product development augurs well for the future product pipeline as it looks to stay ahead of competition in terms of technology and efficiency Hero MotoCorp (HMCL) has lined up an investment of | 5000 crore over the next three years to build new manufacturing plants, even outside India as well as an R&D centre ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research Impact Key News for Today United Spirits United Spirits (USL) is planning to sell two distilleries, one each in Andhra Pradesh & Kerala, and move towards distillation & distribution of the high margin Diageo brands. The company also plans to monetise the surplus assets of the company ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research This augurs well for the company as it moves towards closure of low margin plants, which were a drag on the profitability. Also, distribution of Diageo brands for a fee will further improve income for USL Sensex Chart Technical Outlook We said, "Strength above the candle positive with faster retracement of last week's fall..." The index gapped up above Friday but stopped short of complete retracement of last week's fall. While the Sensex finished 321 points or 1.2% higher, the PSUs, auto, capital goods and oil & gas indices added about 2% each. The A/D ratio also strengthened to 2:1. The action formed a Doji, with Open=Close indicating lack of follow-up above the initial euphoria on state poll results. One day is still left to generate faster retracement of last week's fall. Accordingly, strength and close above 26551 can open up further positive options. However, failure to reach/sustain above 26551 can be negative and test the gaparea. Pivot Points CNX Nifty Technical Picture Index/Stocks SENSEX NIFTY ACC ADANI ENTER. ADANI POWER ADITYA BIRLA ALLAHABAD BANK ANDHRA BANK APOLLO HOSPITALS APOLLO TYRES ARVIND ASHOK LEYLAND ASIAN PAINTS AUROBINDO PHARMA BAJAJ AUTO BOB BOI BATA INDIA Close 26429.85 7879.40 1424.20 450.30 43.60 1637.25 106.15 75.20 1038.65 208.40 283.75 44.35 647.60 933.75 2412.60 873.65 260.55 1214.15 S1 26434.35 7880.10 1422.65 449.20 43.60 1639.20 106.00 74.95 1038.55 208.90 282.65 44.50 648.80 930.70 2409.80 875.85 260.55 1207.80 S2 26397.15 7867.85 1415.45 445.40 43.35 1626.80 105.55 74.30 1032.45 207.45 280.25 44.15 645.85 923.70 2398.30 868.95 257.85 1199.05 R1 26508.85 7904.60 1437.10 456.80 44.05 1664.05 106.90 76.30 1050.75 211.80 287.50 45.20 654.65 944.70 2432.80 889.60 265.95 1225.20 R2 26658.40 7947.75 1447.35 459.95 44.50 1679.00 108.55 77.80 1059.15 213.60 290.50 45.70 660.45 954.50 2447.35 893.50 268.65 1233.90 Nifty Call – Put Strike (No. of shares in lakh) – October 2014 7500 7600 7700 7800 7900 8000 8100 8200 8300 80.0 40 49 20 43 23 64 64 9 7 7 40.0 20.0 56 43 0.0 Call 20.0 Put Intraday Up 7855 7855-7820 7928-7970 0 0 Short Term Range bound 0 7700 8200 7908 7259 Advances / Declines Advances 1637 934 BSE NSE Declines 1197 587 Daily Technical Calls 1. Buy Lupin in range of 1388.00-1390.00 2. Buy NTPC above 144.75 *All recommendations are of October Future See Momentum Pick for more details Buy HINDAL Oct Fut in rng of 148.00-148.50 View: Bullish Strategy: Buy Future Target 1: 149.90 Target 2: 152.50 Stop Loss: 146.50 Market Lot: 2000 CMP : 146.50 7 48 60.0 Nifty Trend Trend Reversal Support Resistance 20 Days EMA 200 days EMA Intraday Derivative Strategy 2 4 56 54 Trend +ve +ve +ve +ve +ve +ve +ve +ve +ve +ve +ve +ve +ve +ve +ve +ve +ve Neutral 40.0 60.0 80.0 Sell WIPRO Oct Fut in rng of 562.00-564.00 View: Bearish Strategy: Sell Future Target 1: 556.50 Target 2: 550 Stop Loss: 570.10 Market Lot: 500 CMP : 559 See Daily Derivatives for more details ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research Unchanged 120 56 Results/Events Calendar 06 October Monday 0 0 0 0 0 07 08 October Tuesday 09 October Wednesday Cera Sanityware HSBC China Services PMI HSBC India Services PMI HSBC China Composite PMI HSBC India Composite PMI Japan Trade Balance UK Industrial Production YoY 0 UK Manufacturing Production Y 0 13 October Monday Indusind Bank, Sintex Ind. Reliance Industries TTK Prestige, India CPI YoY India Import/Export YoY China Trade Balance 20 October Monday Exide Industries, JustDial Idea Cellular Wabco India Jindal Saw Hindustan Zinc 27 October Monday kajaria Ceramics Eight Infra. Ind. India Markit US PMI 0 0 03 Dabur 0 0 0 0 November Monday 14 15 October Tuesday Bajaj Auto, Bluedart Symphony Ltd India WPI YoY Japan PPI YoY UK CPI YoY 21 22 October Tuesday Biocon, HDFC Bank, KPIT Cairn India, JSW Steel Mahindra CIE, PNB, SKF Indoco, McLeod Russel South Indian Bank 28 29 October Tuesday 05 Tuesday V-Guard Gujrat Pipavav Port 0 0 0 23 October Wednesday October Wednesday Dr. Reddy's Lab CONCOR Sesa Sterlite Industrial Prod. Japan Fed QE3 Pace November 0 0 0 0 0 October Thursday November Torrent Pharma, Bata FAG Bearings Shoppers Stop, Bata India 0 0 06 November Thursday Cadila, Aurobindo Pharma Ashok Leyland 0 0 0 October Saturday Persistent Systems Unichem labs Oberoi Realty LIC Housing Finance 0 25 October Friday 0 0 0 0 0 30 18 Friday 24 October October Saturday TV18 0 0 0 0 October Axis bank, NIIT, HCL Tech Mahindra Lifespace HT Media, Zee Ent. 0 0 Thursday NHPC, IDFC Bharti Airtel, Glenmark Ajanta Pharma Maruti Suzuki US GDP Annualised QoQ Wednesday Major Economic Events this week Friday 17 October Thursday TCS, InfoEdge, DB Corp Rallis India, Somany, CMC Bajaj Corp Federal Bank, Hero Motocorp Initial Jobless Claims (US) HDFC, Kotak bank, Wipro Asian Paints Havells, Kansai 0 0 Nestle India, Lupin 0 0 0 0 04 16 October 11 October India Local Car Sales Infosys Germany Trade Balance India Industrial Production YoY Germany Current Account Bala India Exports YoY Initial Jobless Claims (US) India Imports YoY Continuing claims (US) UK Trade Balance Wednesday Cyient, Mindtree, NIIT Tech Japan Ind. Prod. YoY China CPI YoY UK Jobless Claims 0 10 October Thursday October Saturday 0 0 0 0 0 31 Friday M&M, MMDC, PVR Transport Corp of India India Fiscal Deficit Japan Jobless Rate 0 07 01 October Saturday Godrej Consumer China Manufacturing PMI 0 0 0 08 November Friday Navneet Education 0 0 0 0 November November Saturday 0 0 0 0 0 Result Preview Date 20-Oct Event Country Period ECB Current Account SA EC Aug Date 21-Oct 21-Oct 21-Oct 22-Oct 22-Oct 23-Oct 23-Oct 23-Oct 23-Oct 23-Oct 24-Oct 24-Oct Event Country Existing Home Sales MoMUS Industrial Production YoY CH GDP YoY CH Trade Balance JN CPI YoY US Markit Eurozone ManufactEC Markit US Manufacturing US Initial Jobless Claims US Continuing Claims US HSBC China Manufacturin CH GDP YoY UK New Home Sales US Period Sep Sep 3Q Sep Sep Oct P Oct P 18-Oct 11-Oct Oct P 3Q A Sep Actual Expected 18.9B -Expected Previous 1.00% -1.80% 7.50% 6.90% 7.20% 7.50% -¥771.5B -¥948.5B 1.60% 1.70% 50.0 50.3 57.3 57.5 -264K -2389K 50.1 50.2 3.00% 3.20% 470K 504K ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research Revenue EBITDA Chg(%) YoY QoQ Q2FY15E Q2FY15E HDFC Bank 5,233.4 16.9 1.2 4,030.6 Biocon 846.0 14.2 16.6 207.1 KPIT 724.8 3.1 5.1 105.1 JSW Steel 13,564.2 4.5 2.3 2,628.3 Mahindra CIE 100.4 5.8 7.1 16.8 Mcleod Russel 543.1 10.7 446.5 288.3 SKF India 626.3 9.4 4.2 76.6 Cairn India Ltd 4,268.1 -8.2 -4.8 2,913.3 Revenue = NII; EBITDA = PPP for Banks and NBFC Company Recent Releases Date Report 20 October 14 Result Update- Info Edge 20 October 14 Result Update- LIC Housing Finance 20 October 14 Result Update- Oberoi Realty 20 October 14 Result Update- HT Media 20 October 14 Result Update- HCL Technologies PAT Chg(%) YoY QoQ Q2FY15E 19.0 4.9 2,398.0 17.8 19.1 131.2 -3.4 26.4 64.1 11.9 0.6 662.0 59.7 4.3 7.6 9.7 LP 273.0 13.6 0.1 54.3 -16.3 -4.6 2,540.6 Chg(%) YoY QoQ 21.0 7.4 28.4 27.5 -3.9 26.3 LP 0.8 71.2 40.9 11.2 LP 16.5 0.3 -24.9 132.5 Research Product Basket Research Perspective Product Pre-market view & Recommendation Opening Bell Daily Calls Daily Derivative Daily comprehensive snapshot containing information & in-depth analysis of Indian & US markets, major headlines, technical view, derivatives statistics, economic indicators, commodities, market indicators, domestic & global events. Features four stocks & Nifty view with a trading outlook for the day based on shortterm technical trends considering key technical indicators & statistical information. Trading strategy for a day in the futures & options segment based on news events, market trends, technical & other factors governing movements in stocks. Frequency Time frame Avg. Returns objective Location on ICICIdirect.com Pre-market open – Daily 1 Day - Market Page, Trading PageScroller & iCLICK-2-GAIN Pre-market open – Daily 1 Day 2-3 % Research page-We Recommend, Trading Page Pre-market open – Daily 1 Day 2-3 % Research page-We Recommend, Trading Page Daily 1 – 2 Days 1 - 2% Daily 1 Days 1 - 2% Daily 1 – 2 Days 1 - 2% Intraday Recommendation BTST Calls Margin Calls Derivative Calls Based on short-term technical trends and stock specific news/news expectations. Based on short-term technical trends and stock specific news/news expectations. Based on short-term technical trends and stock specific news/news expectations. Provides simplified derivative strategies such as spreads and covered calls Derivative Strategies Weekly & Monthly recommendations Weekly Calls Weekly Technicals Weekly Derivatives Market Trends Global Derivatives Monthly Technical’s Technical trends for a week considering key technical indicators & statistical information Features stocks with a trading outlook for a week based on short-term technical trends considering key technical indicators & statistical information. Trading opportunities in futures & options segment based on data analysis, overall market trend, volatility & open interest positions of securities. Nifty outlook for the month based on F&O data, FII activity, Heavyweights OI analysis along with statistical inputs. Derivatives outlook on global equity indices, currencies and commodities. Also, elaborating the likely impact on the Indian bourses. Trading outlook for a month based on medium-term technical trends considering key technical indicators & statistical information. Medium & Long term recommendations Tecno Funda On basis of Technical and Fundamental whenever opportunity occurs we give these Pick/Technical calls Deliver Call Positional Derivatives Stocks on the move Identifying Out-performers/Under-performers vis a vis index along with positional recommendation on Stocks/Nifty. Covers stocks, which are likely to show significant upward movement in the next 15 days due to change in trader sentiment. Detailed Company Report Fundamental report understanding the business model and future prospects of the company & valuations. Equity Model Portfolio High Dividend Yield Stocks A portfolio based on your risk appetite: large cap, midcap and diversified Features high dividend yielding stocks for assured returns on investment Trading Page iCLICK-2-GAIN Trading Page iCLICK-2-GAIN Trading Page iCLICK-2-GAIN iClick-2-Gain Weekly 1-7 days 5% Research page-We Recommend, Trading Page, iCLICK-2-GAIN & iClick-2-Invest Weekly 1-7 days 4 – 5% Research page-We Recommend, Trading Page Weekly 1-7 days 4 – 5% Research page-We Recommend, Trading Page Monthly 30 days - Trading Page Monthly 30 days - Trading Page Monthly 30 days 10% Research page-We Recommend, Trading Page, iClick-2-Invest Not regularly recommended 3 months 20% Trading Page, iCLICK-2-GAIN & iClick-2-Invest Trading Page, iCLICK-2-GAIN Fortnightly Fortnightly – every alternate Wednesday > 7-15 days 5 – 7% When published > 1 year > 20% & above Quarterly Research page-We Recommend, Trading Page, Scroller, iCLICK-2-GAIN Research page-We Recommend, Trading Page, iCLICK-2-GAIN & iClick-2-Invest Research page-We Recommend, iClick-2-Gain Research page-We Recommend, iClick-2-Gain Pankaj Pandey Head – Research [email protected] ICICIdirect.com Research Desk, ICICI Securities Limited, 1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre, Road No 7, MIDC Andheri (East) Mumbai – 400 093 [email protected] Disclaimer The report and information contained herein is strictly confidential and meant solely for the selected recipient and may not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent of ICICI Securities Ltd (I-Sec). 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