Opening Bell November 20, 2014 US CPI YoY, US initial jobless claims, US continuing claims, HSBC China Manufacturing PMI, Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Index Movement (past one month) 25000 Key Developments 11-Nov 3-Nov BSE (RHS) • The Coal Ministry has released draft guidelines for allocation of proposed coal blocks. The due date for auction is February 11, 2015 while allocation will be completed by March 16, 2015 • Wipro has hired Herve Sortais as GM and country head for France to pursue new business opportunities and grow Wipro's brand visibility • The US Food & Drug Administration (FDA) has been conducting an unannounced inspection of Dr Reddy’s Laboratories’ unit at Visakhapatnam since Tuesday. The unit, meant for formulations, supplies to the European Union and US markets • JSW Steel along with an Algerian company has submitted final bids to acquire Italian Steel maker Lucchini • Tata Power’s renewable energy subsidiary is in talks to invest in wind energy firm, revving up deal activity in this sector as it seeks to achieve its goal of adding as much as 300 MW to its portfolio annually • Larson and Toubro and Japanese firm Sojitz Corporation have jointly won a railway electrification contract from the Railway Ministry valued at | 2633 crore Sensex Nifty 19-Nov 26000 7600 17-Nov 27000 7800 13-Nov 28000 8000 7-Nov 29000 8200 30-Oct 30000 8400 28-Oct 8600 23-Oct Markets Yesterday • Domestic markets closed negative after the RBI governor’s comment hinting that a rate cut may not happen soon enough amid prevailing caution ahead of the release of FOMC minutes this week • US markets closed negative after a volatile day following the release of the minutes of the Federal Reserve's October monetary policy meeting and on account of a report from the Commerce Department showing a drop in housing starts Today’s Highlights 21-Oct Market Outlook • The Indian market is expected to open flattish amid a muted trend across global and other Asian markets. However, positive global sentiments such as snap elections and a delay in tax hike in Japan raising hopes for new stimulus, bodes well for the Indian markets. NSE (LHS) Close Previous Chg (%) MTD(%) YTD(%) P/E (1yr fwd) 28,033 28,163 -0.5 0.6 32.4 17.9 8,382 8,382 0.0 0.7 33.0 17.8 Institutional Activity FII (| cr) DII (| cr) CY12 127,034 -55,841 CY13 112,221 -73,832 YTD CY14 95,217 -35,625 Yesterday Last 5 Days 72 2,203 -491 -2,227 World Indices – Monthly performance Nikkei 17,292 19.0% Nasdaq 4,676 9.8% Dow Jones 17,686 8.0% NSE 8,382 7.7% BSE 28,033 7.4% Germany 9,473 7.0% U.K. 6,697 6.1% France 4,266 5.8% Shanghai 2,445 4.7% Kospi 1,955 3.5% Nifty Heat Map Dr Reddy HUL United Spirits Hindalco Maruti RIL Cipla ACC BHEL Sesa Sterlite 3,523.1 2.6% 760.2 1.1% 2,761.3 0.1% 154.8 -0.4% 3,343.4 -0.6% 978.2 -1.1% 599.2 -1.4% 1,463.1 -1.6% 249.1 -2.0% 240.4 -2.7% HCL Tech HDFC Ltd Lupin Tata power ITC Grasim Ind NMDC ONGC PNB GAIL 1,631.2 1.9% 1,117.2 1.0% 1,449.4 0.1% 88.5 -0.4% 367.9 -0.6% 3,558.1 -1.1% 149.4 -1.5% 384.2 -1.7% 963.1 -2.1% 477.3 -2.7% DLF L&T ICICI Bank TCS 141.2 1.8% 1,658.6 0.9% 1,682.9 0.1% 2,573.8 -0.5% Kotak Bank 1,077.6 Power Grid 146.7 Bank of Baroda 1,040.1 NTPC IDFC Cairn India -0.7% -1.1% -1.5% 144.2 -1.8% 158.7 -2.2% 261.2 -2.7% ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research Tech M. Bharti Airtel Infosys Hero Moto Axis Bank SBI M&M 2,627.3 1.2% 401.8 0.6% 4,173.4 -0.2% 3,000.4 -0.6% 470.2 -0.8% 291.1 -1.2% 1,245.0 -1.6% Sun Pharma 850.1 Tata Motors 529.5 JSPL -1.9% -2.2% 152.0 -3.1% Bajaj Auto BPCL Wipro 2,675.0 1.2% 721.6 0.2% 564.9 -0.2% HDFC Bank 926.6 Indusind Bank 715.5 Ultratech Coal India -0.6% -0.9% 2,494.8 -1.4% 347.1 -1.6% Ambuja Cement 222.2 Asian Paints 683.1 Tata Steel -2.0% -2.5% 471.0 -3.2% Markets Today Commodities Gold (|/10 gm) Silver (|/kg) Crude ($/barrel) Copper ($/tonne) Currency USD/INR EUR/USD USD/YEN ADRs HDFC Bank ICICI Bank Tata Motors Infosys Dr Reddys Labs Close Previous Change (%) MTD(%) YTD(%) 26,214 35,974 78.1 6755 26,529 36,223 78.1 6705 -1.2 -0.7 0.0 0.7 2.1 1.0 -9.0 -0.1 -4.8 -17.1 -29.5 -8.4 61.96 1.25 118.15 61.75 1.26 117.97 0.3 -0.1 0.2 -1.0 0.1 -4.9 -0.3 -8.7 -10.9 52.4 58.6 46.7 67.2 56.8 52.6 58.5 47.2 67.3 56.3 -0.4 0.2 -1.0 -0.2 0.9 7.6 NA 11.0 8.5 15.2 52.8 NA 53.1 19.0 37.1 Exchange Cash Turnover (| crore) Sectoral Index Sector 3,849 18,440 5000 3,658 18,293 10000 3,399 17,094 15000 12-Nov 13-Nov 14-Nov 17-Nov 18-Nov 19-Nov 0 BSE Cash NSE Cash NSE Derivative Turnover (| crore) 13-Nov 14-Nov 0 225,092 12-Nov 100000 181,904 200000 205,601 300000 17-Nov 18-Nov 19-Nov NSE Derivative Sectoral Performance – Monthly Returns (%) Close Previous Change % Change Volume Auto 18907.3 19030.0 -122.7 -0.6 1333000 Banks 20130.6 20262.5 -131.9 -0.7 2474000 BSE Small Cap 11368.6 11443.2 -74.6 -0.7 102407000 Capital Goods 5101000 16138.6 16171.1 -32.5 -0.2 Consumer Durables 9745.4 9865.8 -120.4 -1.2 646000 FMCG 7733.2 7749.5 -16.3 -0.2 1107000 14797.9 14787.2 10.7 0.1 1927000 Healthcare 20000 3,459 18,128 Prior Values 4,388.26bln IN -7.8bln $ 28.9bln $ 315.13bln $ 5.70% 4.50% 43.2bln $ 0.40% -1.40% -34.6bln $ 14.25bln $ 3.50% 1.30% 2.38% 2.84% 4.00% 8.00% 7.00% 180,966 Latest Values 4.70% 2.50% 2.50% 2.70% 0.43% 1.77% 2.43% - 3,532 17,096 Release Date 28-Nov 24~05Dec 14-Nov 21-Nov 28-Nov 30-May 14-Nov 12-Nov 12-Nov 24~05Dec 14-Nov 14-Nov 14-Nov 14-Nov 14-Nov 2-Dec 2-Dec 2-Dec 205,894 Period Oct Q3 Oct w/e Q2 12M Oct Sep Sep Q3 Oct Oct Oct Oct Oct N/A N/A N/A 3,654 17,402 Key Domestic Economic Indicator Fed Fiscal Deficit Current Account Exports - USD FX Reserves, USD Final GDP Quarterly yy GDP Annual Imports - USD Industrial Output yy Manufacturing Output Trade Deficit - RBI Trade Deficit Govt - USD WPI Food yy WPI Fuel yy WPI Inflation yy WPI Manufacturing Inflation yy RBI Cash Reserve Ratio RBI Repo Rate RBI Reverse Repo Rate 184,838 Key Data Points IT 10864.1 10841.7 22.4 0.2 946000 Metals 11205.7 11450.3 -244.6 -2.1 4392000 Mid Cap 10210.6 10275.3 -64.7 -0.6 58209000 Oil & Gas 10747.8 10894.6 -146.8 -1.3 1812000 Power 2145.0 2184.3 -39.4 -1.8 10833000 PSU 8217.7 8343.6 -126.0 -1.5 14980000 Real Estate 1648.4 1664.9 -16.6 -1.0 11874000 Real Estate Capital Goods Auto Banks BSE Small Mid Cap Healthcare Power IT FMCG Consumer PSU Metals Oil & Gas 15.3 13.3 11.1 10.4 10.2 10.1 9.9 7.8 7.2 5.8 5.0 4.6 3.3 2.0 0.0 5.0 10.0 (%) 15.0 20.0 News View The government may allow ONGC to raise its This move will be negative for Cairn as it stake in the Rajasthan block from 30% to 50% will reduce its stake from 70% to 50%. ONGC has the right to increase the stake at the time of PSC, which will expire in 2020. It may also impact Cairn's future investments and, hence, production in the block Impact Key News for Today Company/Industry Cairn India Kotak Bank and As per news articles, Kotak Mahindra Bank is ING Vysya Bank's current market cap is | ING Vysya Bank expected to acquire ING Vyasya Bank with swap 14480 crore. This is positive for both ratio of 2:2.5 valuing the latter at | 16500 crore banks as with the merger, Kotak Bank will reduce its promoter stake by around 7% to 33% and get synergies of presence in southern india. Parent ING has also got a strong exit benefiting ING Vysya Bank's current shareholders ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research Key News for Today Shipbuilding industry The government plans to set up a | 1500-crore The fund is expected to be handled by fund for the shipbuilding industry Exim Bank. The fund will finance projects related to construction, refitting and repair of ships. As the shipbuilding industry is reeling under paucity of funds, this dedicated amount will prove to be a breather ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research Sensex Chart Technical Outlook We said, "Weakness below the Grey support line could open up negative options..." The index started 131 points higher but breaking below the Grey support line later resulted in a net loss of 130 points or 0.4%. Most sectors ended flat to negative but the metal, power and PSU indices shaved off 1.5-2% each. The A/D ratio also turned negative to end at 1:3. The action formed a Bear candle comprising the biggest intra-day shave-off in the last 20days. The index broke below the Grey support line, and is now testing the lower Blue channel at about 27925. Watch if this support holds. Weakness continuing below the channel could test the two-week lows of 27739-65, which is the next crucial support. Pivot Points CNX Nifty Technical Picture Index/Stocks SENSEX NIFTY ACC ADANI ENTER. ADANI POWER ADITYA BIRLA ALLAHABAD BANK ANDHRA BANK APOLLO HOSPITALS APOLLO TYRES ARVIND ASHOK LEYLAND ASIAN PAINTS AUROBINDO PHARMA BAJAJ AUTO BOB BOI BATA INDIA Close 28032.85 8382.30 1463.05 482.50 46.35 1769.05 118.40 86.25 1210.10 225.10 295.50 52.75 683.10 1122.30 2674.95 1040.05 280.30 1304.95 S1 27899.55 8343.30 1447.35 472.70 45.40 1749.25 115.10 84.35 1199.75 221.00 294.65 51.90 671.95 1101.10 2672.45 1025.40 276.10 1288.35 S2 27858.85 8331.50 1441.50 469.40 45.10 1743.50 114.25 83.70 1179.25 219.80 292.20 51.35 666.75 1090.65 2662.15 1020.30 274.25 1279.60 R1 28064.80 8390.90 1467.35 484.65 46.65 1776.40 119.00 86.95 1240.75 226.65 299.55 53.00 684.70 1124.50 2693.00 1040.85 281.60 1308.30 R2 28147.45 8414.70 1477.35 490.65 47.30 1790.00 120.95 88.25 1252.50 229.45 302.05 53.55 691.05 1136.25 2703.45 1048.60 284.40 1318.25 Nifty Call – Put Strike (No. of shares in lakh) – November 2014 8000 8100 8200 8300 8400 8500 8600 8700 8800 150.0 111 100 103 121 37 91 97 30 50.0 115 87 33 15 0.0 Call 50.0 Put Intraday Rangebound 0 8350-8320 8410-8440 0 0 100.0 150.0 Advances 1201 530 BSE NSE Declines 1861 1007 Unchanged 93 56 Daily Technical Calls 1. Buy Tech Mahindra in range of 2632.00 - 2635.00 2. Sell ACC below 1464.00 *All recommendations are of November Future See Momentum Pick for more details Sell LICHF Nov Fut at 409.00-410.00 View: Bearish Strategy: Sell Future Target 1: 406.50 Target 2: 402.20 Stop Loss: 413.50 Market Lot: 1000 CMP : 412 See Daily Derivatives for more details ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research Short Term Up 8180 8180 8650 8256 7431 Advances / Declines Buy ARVMIL Nov Fut at 294.00-295.00 View: Bullish Strategy: Buy Future Target 1: 297.50 Target 2: 302.50 Stop Loss: 291.00 Market Lot: 1000 CMP : 296 16 21 100.0 Nifty Trend Trend Reversal Support Resistance 20 Days EMA 200 days EMA Intraday Derivative Strategy 29 4 1 0 Trend -ve -ve -ve -ve -ve -ve -ve -ve +ve -ve +ve -ve -ve -ve +ve -ve -ve -ve Results/Events Calendar 27 October Monday Kajaria Ceramics, HUL Eight Infra. Ind. India Markit US PMI 0 0 03 November Monday Dabur Bank of India HSBC India Manu. PMI HSBC China Manu. PMI Markit US Manu. PMI 10 November Monday Apollo Tyres, Ipca Labs Motherson Sumi, TV Today Page Industries, Dena Bank Shree Cement Graphite India 17 November Monday Eurozone Trade Balance US Industrial Prod. MoM 0 0 0 24 November Monday Markit US Service PMI Markit US Composite PMI 0 0 0 28 29 October Tuesday Nestle India, Lupin Jubilant Life VST Industries 0 0 04 Dr. Reddy's Lab, TechM CONCOR Sesa Sterlite Industrial Prod. Japan Fed QE3 Pace 05 November Tuesday V-Guard, Aban Offshore Gujrat Pipavav Port Thermax, Pidilite Industries Chennai Petroleum US Trade Balance 11 12 Tuesday NRB Bearings Powergrid, Bosch Limited Amara Raja Batteries Maharashtra Seamless 0 18 19 Tuesday 25 26 November Tuesday UK GDP YoY US New Home Sales 0 0 0 US GDP Annualized QoQ 0 0 0 0 Major Economic Events this week Date 17-Nov 17-Nov 17-Nov 17-Nov 18-Nov 18-Nov 19-Nov Date 20-Nov 20-Nov 20-Nov 20-Nov Event Trade Balance SA Industrial Production MoM Exports YoY Imports YoY CPI YoY PPI Final Demand YoY ECB Current Account SA 0 0 0 0 0 November Saturday Coal India Jaiprakash Power 0 0 0 November Friday 15 November 22 November 29 November Saturday 0 0 0 0 0 November Friday Saturday 0 0 0 0 0 28 Thursday 08 Friday 0 0 0 0 0 November Saturday November Friday Japan Industrial production EC CPI Core YoY 0 0 0 Saturday 0 0 0 0 0 Bulk Deals Country EC US IN IN UK US EC Event Country HSBC China Manufacturing PMI CH Eurozone Manufacturing PMI EC Eurozone Services PMI EC Eurozone Composite PMI EC 20-Nov Initial Jobless Claims 20-Nov CPI YoY 20-Nov Continuing Claims 27 November 21 Thursday November Godrej Consumer Tata Communications Divi's Labs, DCB Bank Atul Auto, JK Cement China Manufacturing PMI November Cox & Kings, Tata Motors CESC, PTC India, ONGC GE Shipping, SBI, JK Tyres Sadbhav Engg, BHEL, FSL Pipavav Def., Future Retail November US CPI YoY US Initial Jobless Claims US Continuing Claims HSBC China Manu. PMI Markit Eurozone Manu. PMI Wednesday 14 Thursday 20 November Friday Navneet Education L&T, AIA Engineering Bank Of Baroda, Sun TV Petronet LNG, Jet Airways City Union, Syndicate Bank November Tata Power, Sun Pharma SCI, Bajaj Elec., Ashoka Balkrishna Ind., Hindalco United Spirits, NBCC, SAIL MRPL, Hathway Cable,IOCL Wednesday ECB Current Account 0 0 0 0 UK CPI YoY US PPI YoY 0 0 0 13 November 07 Thursday 01 October M&M, NMDC, PVR, NTPC Transport Corp of India Gateway Distripark, KEC Int. GAIL, ITC India Fiscal Deficit November Cadila, Aurobindo Pharma Ashok Leyland, Talwalkars UK Industrial Prod. YoY UK Manufacturing Prod. YoY 0 Wednesday Eicher Motors, Tata Steel Apollo Hos., BPCL, Eros Natco Pharma, India Cement Oil India, IGL, Siyaram Silk Sobha Dev., JAL, HEG, J&K November 06 November 31 October Thursday NHPC, eClerx, Titan Bharti Airtel, Glenmark, EIH Ajanta Ph., Taj GVK, Castrol Maruti Suzuki, Yes Bank ACC, Ambuja, JK Laxmi Wednesday Torrent Pharma, IRB Infra FAG Bearings, Gulf Oil Lub. Shoppers Stop, Bata India Escorts, Heidelberg Cement Essel Propack, Accelya Kale November 30 October Wednesday US US US Period Sep Oct Oct Oct Oct Oct Sep Actual Expected 17.7B 16.0B -0.10% 0.20% -5.00% -3.60% -1.30% 1.20% 1.50% 1.30% 30.0B -- Period Expected Previous Nov 50.3 50.4 Nov 50.9 50.6 Nov 52.4 52.3 Nov 52.3 52.1 Nov Oct 8-Nov ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research ---- 290K 1.70% 2392K No. of shares Price (|) Company BSE* Atul Auto Emed.com Technologies ITD Cementation NSE* Bhartiya Intl Limited Client Name Type Birla Sun Life Mutual Fund Lan Finance Private Ltd. HDFC Mutual Fund Buy Buy Buy 175,000 23,000 119,000 397.1 36.8 419.0 Morgan Stanley Asia (Singapore) Pte Buy 274,048 400.0 ITD Cementation HDFC Infrastructure Fund Buy 119,000 419.0 Amrutajan Health Ltd Adihemshree Financial Sell 75,000 325.0 Surya Pharmaceutical Ltd IFCI Ltd. Sell 1,524,710 0.4 Recent Releases Date Report 19 November 14 Result Update – Entertainment Network 19 November 14 Result Update- Butterfly Gandhimathi 19 November 14 Result Update- Cox & Kings 19 November 14 Result Update- page Industries 19 November 14 Result Update- India Cement Research Product Basket Research Perspective Product Pre-market view & Recommendation Opening Bell Daily Calls Daily Derivative Daily comprehensive snapshot containing information & in-depth analysis of Indian & US markets, major headlines, technical view, derivatives statistics, economic indicators, commodities, market indicators, domestic & global events. Features four stocks & Nifty view with a trading outlook for the day based on shortterm technical trends considering key technical indicators & statistical information. Trading strategy for a day in the futures & options segment based on news events, market trends, technical & other factors governing movements in stocks. Frequency Time frame Avg. Returns objective Location on ICICIdirect.com Pre-market open – Daily 1 Day - Market Page, Trading PageScroller & iCLICK-2-GAIN Pre-market open – Daily 1 Day 2-3 % Research page-We Recommend, Trading Page Pre-market open – Daily 1 Day 2-3 % Research page-We Recommend, Trading Page Daily 1 – 2 Days 1 - 2% Daily 1 Days 1 - 2% Daily 1 – 2 Days 1 - 2% Intraday Recommendation BTST Calls Margin Calls Derivative Calls Based on short-term technical trends and stock specific news/news expectations. Based on short-term technical trends and stock specific news/news expectations. Based on short-term technical trends and stock specific news/news expectations. Provides simplified derivative strategies such as spreads and covered calls Derivative Strategies Weekly & Monthly recommendations Weekly Calls Weekly Technicals Weekly Derivatives Market Trends Global Derivatives Monthly Technical’s Technical trends for a week considering key technical indicators & statistical information Features stocks with a trading outlook for a week based on short-term technical trends considering key technical indicators & statistical information. Trading opportunities in futures & options segment based on data analysis, overall market trend, volatility & open interest positions of securities. Nifty outlook for the month based on F&O data, FII activity, Heavyweights OI analysis along with statistical inputs. Derivatives outlook on global equity indices, currencies and commodities. Also, elaborating the likely impact on the Indian bourses. Trading outlook for a month based on medium-term technical trends considering key technical indicators & statistical information. Medium & Long term recommendations Tecno Funda On basis of Technical and Fundamental whenever opportunity occurs we give these Pick/Technical calls Deliver Call Positional Derivatives Stocks on the move Identifying Out-performers/Under-performers vis a vis index along with positional recommendation on Stocks/Nifty. Covers stocks, which are likely to show significant upward movement in the next 15 days due to change in trader sentiment. Detailed Company Report Fundamental report understanding the business model and future prospects of the company & valuations. Equity Model Portfolio High Dividend Yield Stocks A portfolio based on your risk appetite: large cap, midcap and diversified Features high dividend yielding stocks for assured returns on investment Trading Page iCLICK-2-GAIN Trading Page iCLICK-2-GAIN Trading Page iCLICK-2-GAIN iClick-2-Gain Weekly 1-7 days 5% Research page-We Recommend, Trading Page, iCLICK-2-GAIN & iClick-2-Invest Weekly 1-7 days 4 – 5% Research page-We Recommend, Trading Page Weekly 1-7 days 4 – 5% Research page-We Recommend, Trading Page Monthly 30 days - Trading Page Monthly 30 days - Trading Page Monthly 30 days 10% Research page-We Recommend, Trading Page, iClick-2-Invest Not regularly recommended 3 months 20% Trading Page, iCLICK-2-GAIN & iClick-2-Invest Trading Page, iCLICK-2-GAIN Fortnightly Fortnightly – every alternate Wednesday > 7-15 days 5 – 7% When published > 1 year > 20% & above Quarterly Research page-We Recommend, Trading Page, Scroller, iCLICK-2-GAIN Research page-We Recommend, Trading Page, iCLICK-2-GAIN & iClick-2-Invest Research page-We Recommend, iClick-2-Gain Research page-We Recommend, iClick-2-Gain Pankaj Pandey Head – Research [email protected] ICICIdirect.com Research Desk, ICICI Securities Limited, 1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre, Road No 7, MIDC Andheri (East) Mumbai – 400 093 [email protected] Disclaimer The report and information contained herein is strictly confidential and meant solely for the selected recipient and may not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent of ICICI Securities Ltd (I-Sec). 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