Preliminary screening and quantitative economic modelling

Concept evaluations
FuBio Seminar
28.8.2013
Eemeli Hytönen, Lotta Sorsamäki, Marja Nappa, Juha Leppävuori
(VTT Technical Research Center of Finland)
Hanna Kalanne, Jukka Seppänen, Jari Aittakari (GloCell Oy)
16.5.2013
2
Motivation
Many focus areas of FuBio research
Research topic
Examples of concepts
PHWE
• HWE at a saw mill, Kraft pulp mill, TMP plant, or
CTMP/soda plant
• Extraction of high or low molecular weight hemicelluloses
• Extraction of sawdust or chips
ILs
• Kraft pulp to acetate-grade dissolving pulp
• Wood to TMP pulp-like pulp
• Wood to kraft pulp-like pulp
Composites
• Internally, externally or unmodified (using internal
plastization, chemicals, enzymes)
• Different lignin-fibre-plasticizer ratios
Barriers
•
•
•
•
•
•
Hydroxy acids
• HA separation technologies (separate & combined): a)
Electrodialysis, b) Ion-exchange, c) Chromatography, d)
Acidification, e) Cooling crystallization
• Products: a) Hot glues, b) Chelating agents
All – Combination
Ideas TBD
PHWE-xylan
Modification of GGM
TOFA hybrid polymers
Fatty acid cellulose esters
Reactive milling
Cellulose-polymer blends
Eemeli Hytönen, Concept evaluations, FuBio Seminar, 27.8.2013
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16.5.2013
Motivation
Selection of technological
solutions, refinement of
alternatives
Screening out
process-product
alternatives
Order of
magnitude
/
High
Many
Number of
processproduct
alternatives
Design
precision
/
Degree of
uncertainty
Few
+ 5%
/
Low
One
Process
creation
Concept
demonstration
Pre-feasibility
Feasibility
Engineering for
definition
Detailed
engineering
Engineering process design steps
 FuBio concepts often at idea-level  process design work = screening out nonpromising alternatives
 Large amount of potential concepts can be built around the idea and high degree of
uncertainty exists, BUT a systematic analysis can help identifying important factors
to consider in building sustainable concepts from the experimental research
* E. Hytönen and P. Stuart "Techno-Economic Assessment and Risk Analysis of Biorefinery Processes" in Integrated Biorefineries: Design, Analysis, and Optimization. M. M.
El-Halwagi and P. R. Stuart, Eds.: CRC Press/Taylor & Francis, December 2012
Eemeli Hytönen, Concept evaluations, FuBio Seminar, 27.8.2013
16.5.2013
Outline
 Motivation
 Objective
 Methods
 Overall concept evaluation approach of FuBio JR2
 Preliminary screening of ideas – Light techno-economic analysis
 Quantitative economic modelling of concepts
 Example results
 Preliminary screening process
 Hot water extraction
 Ionic liquids fractionation
 Preliminary screening and quantitative economic modelling
 Hydroxy acids separation from black liquor
 Conclusions
 Acknowledgements
Eemeli Hytönen, Concept evaluations, FuBio Seminar, 27.8.2013
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16.5.2013
5
Objective
To illustrate the concept evaluation approach
 Light techno-economic analysis of research ideas (Generation of
comparable economic screening data)
 Quantitative economic modelling
To show results of some evaluated ideas and concepts
Eemeli Hytönen, Concept evaluations, FuBio Seminar, 27.8.2013
16.5.2013
6
Methods – Overall concept evaluation approach of FuBio JR2
Concept development & screening for quantitative and qualitative analysis
Screening
Analysis
A – Process
Modelling and Value Chains
B – Quantitative
Economic Model
Concept
alternative
creation
Screening &
setting
boundaries
Concept
C – Qualitative
Opportunity
Assessment Model
Non-attractive alternatives
D – Analysis and Report
with Key Findings
•
•
Concept = feedstock + process + product(s) + capacity
Concept alternatives created and screened with
industry experts
 Concept
A – The selected concept is modelled at suitable level of detail for
obtaining balances for cost estimation
B – Quantitative modelling of costs and profitability under
uncertainties in process parameters and prices
C – Technical and economic feasibility are combined with other
qualitative factors impacting the opportunities of the case (including
e.g. political, environmental factors) and combined to a opportunity
score of the case
D – Iteration back to the beginning if the case assumptions need to
be adjusted
Eemeli Hytönen, Concept evaluations, FuBio Seminar, 27.8.2013
16.5.2013
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Methods – Preliminary screening of ideas
Light assessment
 M&E Balances
 Fixed costs
 ”INPUT-OUTPUT” -model
 Spreadsheet balancing – no simulation
model
 Included
 Feedstocks
 Yields
 Main product
 By-product(s)
 Heating, cooling and electricity
 Main chemicals (with recycling
rate)
 Water and main waste streams
 Variable costs based on input-output
balances and publicly available
price/cost information
 Labour (cost/person – 70 000 €/a)
 Maintenance (1.5 % of total capital
cost estimate)
 Other (3 % of sales)
 Capital charges (10% of total capital
cost estimate)
 Capital cost estimate
 Bridgewater, Zevnik & Buchanan *
methods used
 Values systematically evaluated for
all new concepts
 Order of magnitude values obtained
 Methods seem to give results within
+25% of detailed CAPEX estimates
fro biomass-based processes
* Holland, F.A. & Wilkinson, J.K., Perry's Chemical Engineers' Handbook, section 9
(Process Economics), McGraw-Hill, 1999
Eemeli Hytönen, Concept evaluations, FuBio Seminar, 27.8.2013
16.5.2013
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Methods – Quantitative economic modelling of concepts
Eemeli Hytönen, Concept evaluations, FuBio Seminar, 27.8.2013
16.5.2013
9
Outline
 Motivation
 Objective
 Methods
 Overall concept evaluation approach of FuBio JR2
 Preliminary screening of concepts – Light techno-economic analysis
 Quantitative economic modelling of concepts
 Example results
 Preliminary screening process
 Hot water extraction
 Ionic liquids fractionation
 Preliminary screening and quantitative economic modelling
 Hydroxy acids separation from black liquor
 Conclusions
 Acknowledgements
Eemeli Hytönen, Concept evaluations, FuBio Seminar, 27.8.2013
16.5.2013
10
Example results – Preliminary screening process
Hot water extraction
Chips
Sawdust
(Spruce,
birch)
Hot water
extraction
Fuel
Fibre for composite
(Yield, DC)
 Host process capacities as
basis for production capacity
Crude extract
Purification &
concentration
Polymeric hemis
Oligomeric hemis
Monomeric hemis
 Products identified with WP1 for the hemicelluloses:
high MW hemicellulose for barriers, animal feed,
chemicals, ethanol
 Processing of solid fraction not included
 Total 32 concepts
Eemeli Hytönen, Concept evaluations, FuBio Seminar, 27.8.2013
 Sawmill – 14 000 bdt
sawdust/a
 Powerplant – 50-100-200
MW feedstock (100 000200 000-400 000 bdt/a)
 TMP plant – 250 000 bdt
chips/a
 Soda/Kraft pulping plant –
250 000-500 000 bdt
chips/a
Sawdust Sawdust Chip
Chip
Chip
Sawdust Sawdust Chip
Chip
Chip
Sawmill
TMP
Soda
Sawmill
TMP
Soda
Powerplant
Spruce
High MW
High hemicelluloses
MW hemicellulose
Powerplant
Birch
Eemeli Hytönen, Concept evaluations, FuBio Seminar, 27.8.2013
Spruce
SUGAR
Sugar
Birch
101045 t/a hemi (30%yield), Soda
50523 t/a hemi (30%yield), TMP
55657 t/a hemi (20%yield), Powerplant
2951 t/a hemi (30%yield), Sawmill
105276 t/a hemi (25%yield), Soda
52638 t/a hemi (25%yield), TMP
85469 t/a hemi (20%yield), Powerplant
3074 t/a hemi (25%yield), Sawmill
22946 t/a hemi (15%yield), Feed
22946 t/a hemi (15%yield), WW
11473 t/a hemi (15%yield), WW
11473 t/a hemi (15%yield), Feed
11473 t/a hemi (15%yield), WW
7944 t/a hemi (10%yield), WW
12718 t/a hemi (10%yield), Fuel
12718 t/a hemi (10%yield), Fuel
6359 t/a hemi (10%yield), Fuel
3180 t/a hemi (10%yield), Fuel
670 t/a hemi (15%yield), Feed
670 t/a hemi (15%yield), Fuel
28682 t/a hemi (15%yield), Feed
28682 t/a hemi (15%yield), WW
14341 t/a hemi (15%yield), WW
14341 t/a hemi (15%yield), Feed
8000
14341 t/a hemi (15%yield), WW
9930 t/a hemi (10%yield), WW
15898 t/a hemi (10%yield), Fuel
15898 t/a hemi (10%yield), Fuel
7949 t/a hemi (10%yield), Fuel
3974 t/a hemi (10%yield), Fuel
838 t/a hemi (15%yield), Feed
838 t/a hemi (15%yield), Fuel
Costs and by-product credits (€/bdt main product)
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Example results – Preliminary screening process
Hot water extraction concepts – cost estimates
6000
4000
Credits
from by-prod
Other fixed
2000
Labour
0
Capital charges
-2000
Wastes
Energy
-4000
Sawdust Chip Sawdust Chip
Chemicals
Water
Feedstock
total
Selling price
Indicative prices:
• High MW hemi –
1200 €/bdt
• Sugar – 300 €/bdt
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Example results – Preliminary screening process
IL fractionation methods
Raw material
Products
Ionic liquid
Antisolvent
Antisolvent recovery
method
Production scale
IL #1
Birch kraft pulp
Dissolving pulp 76%
Hemicellulose 24 %
[Emim]OAc
(and water)
water
IL #2
birch
"kraft-like” pulp 57%
lignin, hemi 43%
Switchable ionic liquid
DBU, MEA, CO2/SO2
ethanol
IL #3
spruce
”CTMP-like” pulp 90-95%
Pectin, hemi, lignin 5-10%
[Emim]Me2PO4
evaporation
150 000 adt/a
distillation
700 000 adt/a
evaporation
250 000 adt/a
• Total 11 concepts
Eemeli Hytönen, Concept evaluations, FuBio Seminar, 27.8.2013
Isopropanol
13
16.5.2013
Example results – Preliminary screening process
IL fractionation concepts – cost estimates
2000,00
Credits
from by-prod
1500,00
1 175
Other fixed
1 214
1 112
860
1 068
720
935
1 035
1 004
Labour
844
Capital charges
Wastes
500,00
Energy
Chemicals
IL #2
SIL pulping
CTMP
CTMP and lignin&pectin
BCTMP
BCTMP and lignin&pectin
hemi&lignin and energy
unbleached kraft and energy
unbleached kraft and hemi&lignin
IL
#1
IONCELL
bleached kraft and energy
-1000,00
bleached kraft and hemi&lignin
-500,00
integrated
0,00
standalone
€/adt
1000,00
872
Water
Feedstock
Total
Selling price
IL #3
IL fibrillation
Eemeli Hytönen, Concept evaluations, FuBio Seminar, 27.8.2013
16.5.2013
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Outline
 Motivation
 Objective
 Methods
 Overall concept evaluation approach of FuBio JR2
 Preliminary screening of concepts – Light techno-economic analysis
 Quantitative economic modelling of concepts
 Example results
 Preliminary screening process
 Hot water extraction
 Ionic liquids fractionation
 Preliminary screening and quantitative economic modelling
 Hydroxy acids separation from black liquor
 Conclusions
 Acknowledgements
Eemeli Hytönen, Concept evaluations, FuBio Seminar, 27.8.2013
16.5.2013
15
Example results – Preliminary screening and quantitative economic modelling
Hydroxy acids separation from black liquor – Case definition
 Pulp mill production capacity 700 000 adt/a
 Theoretical hydroxy acids (HA) yield 15 % of pulping raw material (includes
mono and dihydroxyacids)
 1/3rd of BL processed  HA production 35 000 t/a (50 kg/adt), 50% DC
 Volatile (formic and acetic) acids yield 7% of pulping raw material
 H2S handling and volatile acids recovery excluded
 Pulp mill integration
 Cooking variables (effective alkali and sulfidity) kept constant by NaOH makeup
and fly ash purge
 Black liquor (25% TDS) is taken to HA separation
 Liquor from separation is fed back to evaporation plant (including added water
and chemicals)
 HA product is concentrated in a separate evaporator
Eemeli Hytönen, Concept evaluations, FuBio Seminar, 27.8.2013
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16.5.2013
Example results – Preliminary screening and quantitative economic modelling
Hydroxy acids separation from black liquor – Case definition
to foul condensate
Intermediate
black liquor
VA
Water
CO2
to foul condensate
HA
CO2/
UF
ED
EVAP
CHR
EVAP
ISA
NaOH
Lignin
to green liquor dilution
to evaporation or recovery boiler
Water
Intermediate
black liquor
Water
H2SO4
VA to foul condensate
HA
UF
CHR
IEX
EVAP
ISA
Lignin
Na2SO4
to evaporation or recovery boiler
to green liquor dilution
Water
Intermediate
black liquor
UF
VA To foul condensate
Water
CHR
HA
ED
EVAP
ISA
Lignin
NaOH
to evaporation or recovery boiler
to green liquor dilution
to foul condensate
Intermediate
black liquor
CO2
CO2+
H2SO4
Lignin
to evaporation or recovery boiler
VA
H2SO4
COOL
CRST
EVAP/
NF
To foul condensate
HA
CHR
Inorganics
to green liquor dilution
Eemeli Hytönen, Concept evaluations, FuBio Seminar, 27.8.2013
EVAP
ISA
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17
Example results – Preliminary screening and quantitative economic modelling
Hydroxy acids separation from black liquor – Preliminary screening cost estimates
2000
1800
Cooling crystallization
1600
1400
€/t
1200
1000
800
600
Maintenance (€/t)
Steam (€/t)
Chromatography
Electrodialysis
Fly ash disposal (€/t)
NaOH (€/t)
H2SO4 (€/t)
CO2 (€/t)
400
Electricity (€/t)
200
0
Eemeli Hytönen, Concept evaluations, FuBio Seminar, 27.8.2013
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Example results – Preliminary screening and quantitative economic modelling
Hydroxy acids separation from black liquor – concepts for more detailed analysis
 Separation of hydroxy acids (HA) from black liquor
 LMW (lactic, glycolic, 2-hydroxy-butyric acid)
 HMW (glucoisosaccharinic, xyloisosaccharinic acid)
 Applications
 Hot melts in non food contact cardboard packaging (LMW and HMW)
 Chelating agents in water purification (HMW)
Pulp mill
LMW and HMW
Hot Melts
Cardboard
packaging
Hydroxy acid polymer
Hydroxy acids
separation*
* Two separation technologies
• UF + CHR + IEX
• UF + CHR + ED
HMW
Chelating agents
HMW hydroxy acids
(Reference EDTA)
Eemeli Hytönen, Concept evaluations, FuBio Seminar, 27.8.2013
Water
purification
19
16.5.2013
Example results – Preliminary screening and quantitative economic modelling
Hydroxy acids separation from black liquor – Integration impact assessment
ST ORE
3
Wood 404 t/h,
15 °C, 49 %
DE B A RK I N
Debar k i ng
T RA COM P
A ddi ng of
t r ac e
c omponent s
22
16
LP 6 t/h
636 t/h
DE LI GNI FI CA
Cook i ng and ox y gen d
Chips 355 t/h, 15 °C, 50 %
Water 100 t/h
ST ORE
P r oduc t i on
Effluent 1740 t/h
PID
P i d14
14
25
Pulp 100 t/h, 75 °C, 90 %
11
LP 104 t/h
Oxidised WL
WW-T RE A T
E f f l uent
t r eat ment
Acidic filtrate 867 t/h, TDS 4 g/l
Alkaline filtrate 649 t/h, TDS 8 g/l
Floor channel 120 t/h, TDS 5 g/l
24
BL 933 t/h,
TDS 132 kg/t
DRY E ND
180 t/h, 66 °C, 50 % Dr y er s ec t i on
WL 346 t/h, AA 113 g/l
12
Bark 46 t/h,
30 °C, 40 %
B LE A CHI NG
B l eac hi ng
1
104 t/h, TDS 11 g/l
Water
900 t/h
MP 71 t/h
348 t/h
71 t/h
MP 32 t/h
LP 91 t/h
M IX
M i x 30
30
Cond. B 278 t/h
Cond. A 421 t/h
M IX
M i x 26
26
EVAPO
E v apor at i on
Pyrolysis gas
properties
SP LI T
Spl10
i t 10
Pyrolysis gas
0 t/h
RE COV E RY _SK
Whi t e l i quor pr epar at i on
5
BL 156 t/h,
TDS 822 kg/t
CTO 0 t/h
Flue gas 806 t/h
183 °C
SUM
St eam 4. 2 bar
20
2
Saltcake 5 t/h
SUM
St eam 13 bar
13
227 t/h
195 t/h
Water 351 t/h
SP LI T
dus t dump
141
Saltcake 1.4 t/h
69 t/h
M IX
15
Smelt 63 t/h
102 t/h
HP -steam 598 t/h, 103 bar, 505 °C
4.2 bar
B OI LE RS
B oi l er pl ant
MP 16 t/h
Air 695 t/h
24 °C
LP 26 t/h
13 bar
Bio-sludge 0 t/h
0%
7 bar 0 t/h
 Pulp mill reference
model (WinGemssimulation software) *
 Capacity 700 000 adt/a.
Process water usage ~
15 m3/adt. Based on
BAT technologies
MP 76 t/h
1: Bark c ontent of wood: 10 w-%
ST ORE Wood properties :
2: Wood LHV: 19.35 MJ /k gDS
1) I: Wood temp. [C] 15
3: Wood HHV: 19.3 MJ /k gDS
P ar amet er s2) I: Dry c ontent of wood [%] 50
4: Not in us e
3) I: Cellulos e in wood [%] 44.1
5: Bark Dry c ontent: 40 %
4) I: Hemic ellulos e in wood [%] 30.7
6: Carbon frac tion in bark : 0.5159
5) I: Lignin in wood [%] 23.9
23
7: Ox y gen frac tion in bark : 0.4069
6) I: Ex trac tiv es in wood [%] 1.6
8: Hy drogen frac t. in bark : 0.0577
9: Sulfur frac tion in bark : 3.000E-04
10: As h frac tion in bark : 0.0192
11: Gas ific ation los t: 6 %
Wood
par am
i nput
T URB _P LA NT
T ur bi ne pl ant
Sootblowing steam 16 t/h, 30 bar
MP-condensate 140 t/h
123 t/h
Bark parameters
42 t/h
LP-condensate 267 t/h
Shaft power 95.1 MW
M IX
21
BFW 604 t/h, 120 bar, 187 °C
6
4
Boiler blow-down 6 t/h, 103 bar, 313 °C
Eemeli
Concept–evaluations,
FuBio
27.8.2013
* Kangas, Kaijaluoto and Määttänen (2013), Evaluation of
FutureHytönen,
Pulp Mill Concepts
Reference Model
of Seminar,
Modern Nordic
Kraft Pulp Mill, to be submitted to NPPRJ
16.5.2013
20
Example results – Preliminary screening and quantitative economic modelling
Hydroxy acids separation from black liquor – Feasibility and uncertainty
All sales to hotmelt (750 – 1500 €/t)
Split sales to hotmelt (750 – 1500 €/t)
and chelating agent (500 – 800 €/t)
ROI: 90% probability to be positive
ROI: 46% probability to be positive
ROI: 38% probability to be positive
ROI: 0,1% probability to be positive
UF + CHR + ED
UF + CHR + IEX
Eemeli Hytönen, Concept evaluations, FuBio Seminar, 27.8.2013
16.5.2013
21
Outline
 Motivation
 Objective
 Methods
 Overall concept evaluation approach of FuBio JR2
 Preliminary screening of concepts – Light techno-economic analysis
 Quantitative economic modelling of concepts
 Example results
 Preliminary screening process
 Hot water extraction
 Ionic liquids fractionation
 Preliminary screening and quantitative economic modelling
 Hydroxy acids separation from black liquor
 Conclusions
 Acknowledgements
Eemeli Hytönen, Concept evaluations, FuBio Seminar, 27.8.2013
16.5.2013
22
Conclusions
 2-step method used in FuBio JR2 programme for biorefinery design
was illustrated
 Preliminary screening useful for identifying promising feedstock-processproduct combinations for more detailed analysis of e.g. integration
implications, markets, and quantitative and qualitative performance of the
concepts
 More detailed case study evaluations are being done with focus on
 Uncertainties
 Variable and fixed costs
 Qualitative performance
 Results of light techno-economic assessment and quantitative
economic modelling of three sets of ideas was presented
 Hot water extraction of hemicelluloses integrated into different biomass
processing plants
 IL fractionation of biomass
 Hydroxy acids separation from Kraft black liquor
Eemeli Hytönen, Concept evaluations, FuBio Seminar, 27.8.2013
16.5.2013
Acknowledgements
 FIBIC Ltd.
 Industrial tutors of FuBio Joint Research 2 –programme
 Research groups involved in the experimental research of the
concepts in FuBio Joint Research 2 –programme
 Researchers involved in the concept evaluation
Eemeli Hytönen, Concept evaluations, FuBio Seminar, 27.8.2013
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VTT creates business from technology
Eemeli Hytönen, Concept evaluations, FuBio Seminar, 27.8.2013
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Example results – Preliminary screening and quantitative economic modelling
Hydroxy acids separation from black liquor – key process input variables
Eemeli Hytönen, Concept evaluations, FuBio Seminar, 27.8.2013
16.5.2013
26
Example results – Preliminary screening and quantitative economic modelling
Hydroxy acids separation from black liquor – Integration impact assessment
reference IEX
Electricity
Generation
Usage
Out
H2SO4
NaOH
Fly ash
Lime circulation
Evaporation plant
1440
600
840
5
30
13
0.24
3
∆ ED
1320
621
700
69
96
122
0.19
3.8
-8 %
4%
-17 %
1306 %
220 %
838 %
-21 %
27 %
∆
1220
770
450
5
30
13
0.22
3.5
-15 % kWh/adt
28 % kWh/adt
-46 % kWh/adt
0 % kg/adt
0 % kg/adt
0 % kg/adt
-8 % kg/adt
17 % GJ/adt
 Increased fly ash disposal and NaOH makeup (IEX)
 Decreased electricity generation (IEX and ED)
 Increased evaporation requirement at evaporation plant
 LP steam used in HA product condensation (separate evaporator)
 Increased electricity usage (IEX and ED)
 Reduced lime circulation (IEX and ED)
Eemeli Hytönen, Concept evaluations, FuBio Seminar, 27.8.2013