Occupational change
in Europe
Daniel Oesch
University of Lausanne
Helsinki, 3 November 2014
Plan of presentation
• The debate about polarization of the
employment structure
• Evidence for occupational change in
Western Europe since 1990
• What drivers are behind the observed
pattern of occupational change?
2
Some history on the debate about
occupational change
Ever since Marx, occupational change was seen
as an indicator for the future of capitalism
1970s and 1980s: ongoing disputes about
downgrading, upgrading or polarization
1990s: the debate is settled in favour of skillbiased technological change
2000s: new studies show job polarization for the
U.S. and Britain – induced by technology?
3
An empirical strategy to analyze
occupational change
a.
Identify detailed occupations
b.
Determine job quality based on
occupations’ hourly median earning
c.
Rank-order occupations from
lowest- to highest-paid and group
them into 5 equally large quintiles
d.
Trace employment change in jobquality quintiles over time
4
Countries and data
6 West European countries: Britain, Denmark,
Germany, Ireland, Spain, Switzerland
Time period: 1990-2008 / 1970-2010
Data: labour force survey (CH, DK, ES, UK),
German socio-economic panel (DE),
national census data (CH, IRE)
5
Evidence: the most strongly growing
and declining jobs, 1990-2008
GB
Strongest growth
Strongest Decline
Care assistants (1)
Secretaries (3)
Treasurers (5)
Metal work fitters (4)
Educat. assistants (1)
Counter clerks (2)
Legal professionals (5) Farm hands (1)
DE
Nurses (3)
Machine mechanics (4)
Social workers (3)
Taxi / van drivers (1)
6
Occupational change in Britain
and Germany (in 1000 jobs)
GB, 1991-2008
DE, 1990-2007
3000
3000
2500
2500
2000
2000
1500
1500
1000
1000
500
500
0
0
-500
-500
-1000
-1000
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q5
Q1
Q2
Q3
Data: UK labour force survey / German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP)
Q4
Q5
7
Occupational change in Spain,
1990-2008 (in 1000 jobs)
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q5
Data: Spanish labour force survey (EPA), analysis byJorge Rodriguez (UPF)
8
Occupational change in Switzerland
and Denmark (in 1000 jobs)
CH, 1991-2008
DK, 1992-2007
500
200
400
150
300
100
200
50
100
0
0
-100
-50
-200
-100
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q5
Data: national labour force surveys
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q5
9
Switzerland: absolute change by decades
in 1000 jobs
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q5
350
250
150
50
-50
-150
-250
-350
1970-1980
1980-1990
1990-2000
Data: Swiss population census, analysis by Emily Murphy
2000-2010
10
Ireland: absolute change by decades
in 1000 jobs
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q5
200
150
100
50
0
-50
-100
1971-1981
1981-1991
Data: Irish census extract, analysis by Emily Murphy
1991-1996
1996-2006
11
Looking for causality: what explains the
observed pattern of occupational change
Demand-side determinants (firms)
- Technological change and offshoring
Supply side determinants (worker profiles)
- Educational expansion
- Immigration
Labour market institutions (laws)
- Wage-setting and the welfare state
12
What speaks for the demand-side: later
subperiods become more similar
GB, 1991-2008
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
DE, 1990-2007
Q5
Q1
1000
1200
750
900
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q5
600
500
300
250
0
0
-300
-250
-600
-500
-900
-750
-1200
1991-96
1996-02
2002-08
1990-96
1996-02
2002-07
13
What speaks for the supply-side: inflow
of migrant workers is key for Britain
GB, 1991-2008
DE, 1990-2007
9
9
6
6
3
3
0
0
-3
-3
Foreign
women
Foreign
men
National
women
National
men
-6
-6
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5
14
What speaks for institutions: variation
in interpersonal service jobs
GB, 1991-2008
9
DE, 1990-2007
9
6
Interpersonal
service workers
6
3
Production
workers
3
Clerks
0
0
Professionals
-3
-3
-6
-6
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q5
Managers
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q5
15
To avoid one misunderstanding: job decline
concerns the working, not the middle class
Shift of workforce across 8 classes, 1990/1-2007/8 (in %)
Independent
work logic
CH
DE
DK
GB
CH
DE
DK
GB
Technical work
logic
Organizational
work logic
Interpersonal
service logic
Lib. professionals Technical
+ large employers professionals
(Associate)
managers
Socio-cultural
professionals
3→5
1→3
2→3
2→2
10 → 11
10 → 10
8→8
8→8
11 → 18
13 → 18
11 → 18
17 → 23
11 → 14
10 → 14
15 → 17
9 → 13
Small business
owners
Production
workers
Office clerks
Service workers
11 → 11
6→7
9→7
12 → 11
24 → 19
36 → 23
24 → 21
25 → 16
17 → 10
13 → 13
13 → 8
16 → 12
13 → 13
10 → 11
18 → 18
11 → 15
16
Conclusion
Occupational upgrading in all six countries, going
hand in hand with educational expansion
Growth among professionals and managers,
decline among clerks and production workers
The finding of polarization in the UK (and the US)
does not generalize to other countries
Country differences in the bottom quintile point to
the role of institutions and immigration
17
References
Fernández Macías, E. (2012). Job Polarization in Europe?
Changes in the Employment Structure and Job Quality,
1995-2007. Work and Occupations 39(2): 157-182.
Goos, M. and Manning, A. (2007), ‘Lousy and lovely jobs: the
rising polarisation of work in Britain’, Review of Economics
and Statistics 89: 118-133 .
Oesch, D, (2013) Occupational Change in Europe: How
Technology and Education Transform the Job Structure,
Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Oesch, D. and Rodriguez Menes, J. (2011), ‘Upgrading or
polarization? Occupational change in Britain, Germany,
Spain and Switzerland, 1990-2008’, Socio-Economic
Review 9(3): 503-531.
Wright, E. O. and Dwyer, R. (2003), ‘The patterns of job
expansions in the USA: A comparison of the 1960s and
1990s’, Socio-Economic Review 1: 289-325.
18
Occupations’ median earnings in 1991-3 and
2011-3 (as a multiple of overall mean wage)
Data: Swiss Labour Force Survey
19