Money Derilook 21 October 2014 Nifty Synopsis Particulars Spot Future Prem. / Disc. Futures OI PCR OI PCR VOL VIX (%) Current 7880.00 7895.00 15.00 18060150 0.85 0.94 18.96 Previous 7780.00 7815.00 35.00 17158850 0.84 0.83 18.96 1.29 1.02 5.25 – – 0.00 Change (%) Source: NSE Outlook NIFTY PCR_OI rebounds marginally at 0.85 (below 1, Nifty open interest vs Nifty Futures developed stiff resistance zone 16.4-16.8, if continues to OI 20/Oct 17/Oct 16/Oct 14/Oct INDIA VIX closes at 14.19 (closing below 10 DMA i.e. 14.5) 13/Oct 9/Oct 7900. 10/Oct shares); clearly implying support levels for NIFTY 7850- 8/Oct 12.27 lakh shares (with total OI 47.74 lakh 7/Oct addition of 18.5 18 17.5 17 16.5 16 15.5 15 14.5 Millions shares), PCR_OI 0.23; On the other hand, 7900 PE saw 8000 7950 7900 7850 7800 7750 7700 7650 7600 30/Sep unwinding of 3.89 lakh shares (with total OI 64.44 lakh 1/Oct 6mth low at 0.65, 6mth high 1.36 in OCT.); 8000 CE saw Nift y F ut ur es move south and close below 13.5 which will imply bias of VIX turning negative (can lead to some more pull back Source: NSE on Index as uncertainty will decrease), that would clearly signal NIFTY may test resistance 7600-7650 levels. Nifty Spot vs PCR FIIs volume picked up in Cash market, on Cash Front on Thursday they continue to be sellers to the tune of 1128 1.20 8000 7950 7900 7850 7800 7750 7700 7650 7600 Cr.; DIIs continue to be buyers 664 Cr.; On F & O Front, FIIs continue to be sellers in index Fut. to the tune of 725 0.80 Cr.; Index options continue to be buyers to the tune of 729 0.00 find resistance at 8000-8030 levels. P CR – OI Over all PE writers add aggressive positions; Index will find support at 7850-7900 levels. PCR – Vol 20/Oct will 17/Oct NIFTY 16/Oct implying 14/Oct continue, 13/Oct Options 10/Oct Index 9/Oct (quantum still high), with sellers in Index Fut., with buying in 0.40 8/Oct Cr., Stock Future buyers 363 Cr.; FIIs sellers on cash front Nifty S pot Source: NSE ‘~~ Nifty Options OI built up (Current expiry) 7 6 5 Millions 4 3 2 1 Put OI 8400 8300 8200 8100 8000 7900 7800 7700 7600 7500 7400 0 Ca ll OI Source: NSE Aditya Birla Money Limited Cello Triumph, Unit No. 502-503 & 505 | I. B. Patel Road | of f W.E. Highway | Goregaon (East) | Mumbai - 400063 | Tel: +91 22 61802800 Page No: 1 Money Derilook 21 October 2014 INDEX FUTURES 3341.55 1886.54 1455.01 11,866 1879.55 INDEX OPTIONS 16162.76 16354.92 -192.17 70,081 359.47 STOCK FUTURES 3231.93 2604.22 627.72 43,391 737.56 STOCK OPTIONS 2881.39 2926.23 -44.84 2,864 136.33 Total 25617.63 23771.91 128,202 3112.91 1845.72 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 (500) (1000) (1500) (2000) 8000 7950 7900 7850 7800 7750 7700 7650 7600 FI I B/S OI Ch ng 20/Oct OI Change 17/Oct OI 16/Oct Net 14/Oct Sell 13/Oct Buy 10/Oct Product FII vs Nifty Spot 9/Oct FII Derivatives Statistics (` in Cr.) Nifty Spot Source: NSE Source: NSE, In Index Futures FIIs were Net Buyers to the tune of 1455 Cr with an Open Interest increase of around 1880 Crs: Indicating Long Build Up in INDEX FUTURES by FIIs. % C hange Pri ce Others Real Estate Infra Chemicals & Fertilizers Finance Power Pharma Capital Goods Telecom IT Textiles Metals Oil & Gas FMCG Cement Auto 5 4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 -5 Banking Sectoral Movement % C hange OI Source: NSE Long Build Up was witnessed in: BANKING, AUTO. Short Build Up was witnessed in: FMCG, IT. Short Covering was witnessed in: CEMENT, OIL & GAS, METALS, TELECOM, CAPITAL GOODS, PHARMA, REAL ESTATE. Aditya Birla Money Limited Cello Triumph, Unit No. 502-503 & 505 | I. B. Patel Road | of f W.E. Highway | Goregaon (East) | Mumbai - 400063 | Tel: +91 22 61802800 Page No: 2 Money Derilook 21 October 2014 Stock Futures Activity TVSMOTOR: Mid Cap AUTO Sector stock witnessed Long Built up in the form of OI 7% (2.9 lakh shares);with Cash Vol. surge 78.22 Lakh Shares, 354 percent higher form yesterday, has given a closing above 240-241 making new 52 week high, till stays above 231235, expect to retest higher levels 260-265. PNB: Large Cap PSU Bank stock witnessed Long Built up in the form of OI 8% (3.34 lakh shares); Del. Vol. 4.7 Lakh Shares Vs. 2.99 Lakh Shares, Stock yet again breaks below 200 DMA 452, closed well above 938-940 i.e. 50 DMA, if breaks above 938-940, expect to test 1000-1005. EXIDE: Mid Cap Auto Sector Stock witnessed shorts in the form of OI 16% (14.2 lakh shares); Cash Vol. at 54.8 Lakh up by 147% from yesterday; has given away crucial support 160-162, sell on rise till does not cross 164 expect to move below level of 150-145. AXISBANK: Large Cap PVT. Bank Stock witnessed Long Built up to the tune of 15% (31.2 lakh shares); Del. VOl. picking up 27.4 Lakh Shares Vs. 14.41 Lakh Shares, stock crossed Ascending Triangle by closing above 411-412, till stays above 405 expect to retest higher level of 422-436. HEROHONDA: Large CAP AUTO Stock witnessed aggressive Long to the tune of 5.5% (1.3 lakh shares add); has closed above resistance 2920-2925, till holds above 2885, expect to retest higher levels 3027-3030s level. Stock Options Activity JSPL: CE writers accumulate at 140 levels with total OI of 9.17 lakh shares (addition of 9.02 lakh shares on Monday); expect resistance level at 140-144 levels. AXISBANK: PE writers accumulate at 400 levels with total OI 7.83 lakh shares (addition of 3.87 lakh shares on Monday); implying stock will find support in zone of 398-406 levels. ONGC: on options front CE writers saw accumulation at 430 and 440 levels, with total OI 4.5 and 7.4 lakh shares (addition of 2.3 and 2.7 lakh shares on Monday); implying Stock will find resistance at 434-438 level, in current series. HDFCBANK: on options front CE writers saw accumulation at 900 levels, with total OI 8.81 lakh shares (addition of 2.06 lakh shares on Monday); implying Stock will find resistance at 906-914 level, in current series. RELIANCE: on options front CE writers saw accumulation at 940 levels, with total OI 11.4 lakh shares (addition of 3.02 lakh shares on Monday); implying Stock will find resistance at 954-966 level, in current series. Aditya Birla Money Limited Cello Triumph, Unit No. 502-503 & 505 | I. B. Patel Road | of f W.E. Highway | Goregaon (East) | Mumbai - 400063 | Tel: +91 22 61802800 Page No: 3 Money Derilook 21 October 2014 Open Interest Gainers Long Buildup Scrip Price Price change % Price Change % OI Change % Delivery AXISBANK 419.5 16.5 4.1 14.1 36.6 ANDHRABANK 75.5 3.5 4.9 7.6 24.0 PNB 955.0 37.2 4.1 6.2 35.2 ZEEL 329.9 7.8 2.4 5.9 69.8 PETRONET 194.0 6.8 3.6 5.3 57.1 Source: NSE Short Buildup Scrip Price Price change % Price Change % OI Change % Delivery CESC 659.3 -15.7 -2.3 10.0 58.3 EXIDEIND 158.9 -6.0 -3.6 9.0 30.2 WIPRO 558.4 -9.3 -1.6 5.6 62.9 CROMPGREAV 189.6 -2.2 -1.1 2.6 29.6 JINDALSTEL 136.0 -12.6 -8.4 2.5 16.5 Source: NSE Open Interest Losers Short Covering Scrip Price Price change % Price Change % OI Change % Delivery ONGC 419.0 19.6 4.9 -10.9 64.7 VOLTAS 233.2 2.8 1.2 -10.4 36.3 HINDALCO 146.8 6.5 4.6 -9.1 46.8 SIEMENS 827.5 30.8 3.9 -9.0 35.2 BHARATFORG 767.7 11.4 1.5 -7.7 34.2 Source: NSE Long Unwinding Scrip Price Price change % Price Change % OI Change % Delivery IBREALEST 64.8 -3.3 -4.8 -1.4 42.3 Source: NSE Aditya Birla Money Limited Cello Triumph, Unit No. 502-503 & 505 | I. B. Patel Road | of f W.E. Highway | Goregaon (East) | Mumbai - 400063 | Tel: +91 22 61802800 Page No: 4 Money Derilook 21 October 2014 Research Team Vivek Mahajan Hemant Thukral Head of Research Head – Derivatives Desk 022-61802820 022-61802870 [email protected] [email protected] Fundamental Team Sunny Agrawal FMCG/Cement/Mid Caps 022-61802831 [email protected] Shreyans Mehta Construction/Real Estate 022-61802829 [email protected] Pradeep Parkar Database Analyst 022-61802839 [email protected] Sudeep Shah Sr. Technical Analyst 022-61802837 [email protected] Rahil Vora Technical Analyst 022-61802834 [email protected] Soni Patnaik Derivative Analyst 022-61802832 [email protected] Suresh Gardas Advisory Desk 022-61802835 [email protected] Mohan Jaiswal Executive – Research Support 022-61802838 [email protected] Quantitative Team Advisory Support ABML research is also accessible in Bloomberg at ABMR Aditya Birla Money Limited Cello Triumph, Unit No. 502-503 & 505 | I. B. Patel Road | of f W.E. Highway | Goregaon (East) | Mumbai - 400063 | Tel: +91 22 61802800 Page No: 5 Money Derilook 21 October 2014 Disclaimer: This document is not for public distribution and is meant solely for the personal information of the authorised recipient. No part of the information must be altered, transmitted, copied, distributed or reproduced in any form to any other person.Persons into whose possession this document may come are required to observe these restrictions. This document is for general information purposes only and does not constitute an investment advice or an offer to sell or solicitation of an offer to buy / sell any security and is not intended for distribution in countries where distribution of such material is subject to any licensing, registration or other legal requirements. The information , opinion, views contained in this document are as per prevailing conditions and are of the date of appearing on this material only and are subject to change. 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