U.S. Wheat Associates
Weekly Price Report
October 24, 2014
Export
Region
Great
Lakes
Gulf of
Mexico
Pacific
N. West
OCT (Z14)
(nearbys)
FOB $/bu
Percent Protein
12% (Dry) Moisture Basis
NS/DNS 13.0 (14.8)
NS/DNS 13.5 (15.3)
NS/DNS 14.0 (15.9)
NS/DNS 13.0 (14.8)
NS/DNS 13.5 (15.3)
NS/DNS 14.0 (15.9)
HRW Ord
HRW 11.0 (12.5)
HRW 11.5 (13.1)
HRW 12.0 (13.6)
HRW 12.5 (14.2)
SRW
NS/DNS 13.0 (14.8)
NS/DNS 13.5 (15.3)
NS/DNS 14.0 (15.9)
HRW Ord
HRW 11.5 (13.1)
HRW 12.0 (13.6)
HRW 13.0 (14.8)
SW Unspecified
SW 10.5 (11.9) Max
SW 9.5 (10.8) Max
WW with 10% Club
WW with 20% Club
M
M
M
M
M
M
K
K
K
K
K
C
M
M
M
K
K
K
K
$
$
$
$
$
6.97
7.37
7.87
8.27
8.77
9.27
7.74
7.79
7.79
7.84
7.89
6.58
9.37
9.67
10.07
7.64
7.69
7.79
7.94
6.95
7.05
8.55
7.35
7.70
OCT (Z14)
NOV (Z14)
DEC (Z14)
JAN (H15)
FEB (H15)
MAR (H15)
APR (K15)
$/bu
$/MT
$/MT
¢/bu
$/MT
¢/bu
$/MT
¢/bu
$/MT
¢/bu
$/MT
¢/bu
$/MT
¢/bu
$/MT
¢/bu
Year Ago
(nearbys)
$/MT
-0.03
-0.03
-0.03
-0.03
-0.03
-0.03
-0.08
-0.08
-0.08
-0.08
-0.08
-0.08
-0.03
-0.03
-0.03
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-1
-1
-1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
256
271
289
304
322
341
284
286
286
288
290
242
344
355
370
281
282
286
292
255
259
314
270
283
130
170
220
260
310
360
180
185
185
190
195
140
370
400
440
170
175
185
200
6.95
7.05
8.55
7.35
7.70
256
271
289
304
322
341
284
286
286
288
290
242
344
355
370
281
282
286
292
255
259
314
270
283
130
170
220
260
310
360
180
185
185
190
195
140
370
400
440
170
175
185
200
6.95
7.05
8.55
7.35
7.70
256
271
289
304
322
341
284
286
286
288
290
242
344
355
370
281
282
286
292
255
259
314
270
283
130
170
220
260
310
360
180
185
185
190
195
140
370
400
440
170
175
185
200
6.95
7.05
8.55
7.35
7.70
closed
closed
closed
315
334
352
285
287
287
289
291
247
334
345
359
282
283
287
293
259
263
318
274
287
N/A
N/A
N/A
280
330
380
180
185
185
190
195
140
330
360
400
170
175
185
200
7.05
7.15
8.65
7.45
7.80
closed
closed
closed
315
334
352
283
285
285
287
289
247
334
345
359
282
283
287
293
259
263
318
274
287
N/A
N/A
N/A
280
330
380
175
180
180
185
190
140
330
360
400
170
175
185
200
7.05
7.15
8.65
7.45
7.80
closed
closed
closed
315
334
352
282
283
283
285
287
247
334
345
359
282
283
287
293
259
263
318
274
287
N/A
N/A
N/A
280
330
380
170
175
175
180
185
140
330
360
400
170
175
185
200
7.05
7.15
8.65
7.45
7.80
256
270
289
318
336
355
280
282
282
283
285
249
338
349
364
282
283
287
293
259
263
318
274
287
110
150
200
280
330
380
165
170
170
175
180
140
335
365
405
170
175
185
200
7.05
7.15
8.65
7.45
7.80
304
304
311
341
348
355
330
332
332
336
340
296
333
339
346
336
338
340
349
301
305
312
309
323
week change
FOB
Basis
FOB
Basis
FOB
Basis
FOB
Basis
FOB
Basis
FOB
Basis
FOB
Basis
Durum: a range of prices are available depending upon various quality attributes.
Offers from the Lakes range from $12.25 to $12.79/bu ($450 to $470/MT). Offers from Gulf ports range from $12.93 to $13.47/bu ($475 to $495/MT).
Futures Settlements as of
October 24, 2014
Chicago BOT SRW
Kansas City BOT HRW
Minneapolis MGE NS/DNS
Chicago BOT Corn
Chicago BOT Soybeans
Legend:
Cash:
Convert:
Grey positions not quoted on specific exchange
DEC (Z14)
$/MT
190.24
218.16
208.33
138.99
359.16
NOV (X14)
$/bu
9.7750
week
change
$/bu
0.2575
week
week
DEC (Z14) change JAN (F15) change MAR (H15)
$/bu
$/bu
$/bu
$/bu
$/bu
5.1775
0.0175
5.3100
5.9375
(0.0800)
5.9625
5.6700
(0.0340)
5.7800
3.5300
0.0500
3.6675
9.8325
0.2350
9.9000
week
change MAY (K15)
$/bu
$/bu
0.0300
5.3875
(0.0550) 5.9625
0.0240
5.8560
0.0550
3.7525
0.2200
9.9675
week
week
week
change JUL (N15) change AUG (Q15) change
$/bu
$/bu
$/bu
$/bu
$/bu
0.0425
5.4625
0.0475
(0.0225)
5.9050
0.0225
0.0220
5.9420
0.0300
0.0525
3.8275
0.0525
0.2000
10.0225
0.1850
10.0275 0.1725
M = Minneapolis Grain Exchange; K = Kansas City Board of Trade; C = Chicago Board of Trade;
$ = cash price quote; N/A = quote not available; closed = Great Lakes are closed to vessels for winter; ¢/bu = cents per bushel;
Futures Contract Month: H = March; K = May; N = July; U = September; Z = December
NS/DNS=Northern Spring/Dark Northern Spring (subclasses of Hard Red Spring); HRW=Hard Red Winter; SRW=Soft Red Winter; SW=Soft White; WW=Western White (White Club & Soft White)
F.O.B.= "Free on board" - Seller is responsible for placing grain at the end of the loading spout. Buyer is responsible for providing the ocean vessel and for all other costs after the grain is delivered on board.
Basis: The difference between the cash price and futures month for specific quality, shipping period and geographical location.
Durum, SW and WW are quoted in dollars per bushel ($/bu.) rather than basis for each contract month.
To compute cash price, add basis level and current futures to get price per bushel. Multiply by 36.743 to get price per metric ton.
Example: Basis = 70 and Future Price = $9.00, the price per bushel is $9.00 + .70 = $9.70/bu. Price per metric ton is $9.70 * 36.743 = $356/MT.
All prices are based upon U.S. number two grade or better as certified by the Federal Grain Inspection Service (FGIS).
SEP (U15)
$/bu
5.5575
6.0200
6.0220
3.9025
9.8750
week
change
$/bu
0.0500
0.0325
0.0320
0.0575
0.1425
U.S. Wheat Associates
Weekly Price Report (page 2)
October 24, 2014
U.S. dollars/metric ton
Handymax
40-46 TMT
15
46
Panamax
54+ TMT
30
45
35
47
38
39
30
33
70
65
60
65
39
42
28
32
52
37
27
28
30
34
25
27
29
Freight Index**
Week Ending
10/17/2014
10/10/2014
10/3/2014
9/26/2014
9/19/2014
9/12/2014
9/5/2014
8/29/2014
8/22/2014
8/15/2014
8/8/2014
8/1/2014
7/25/2014
7/18/2014
7/11/2014
7/4/2014
6/26/2014
6/20/2014
6/13/2014
6/6/2014
5/30/2014
5/23/2014
5/16/2014
5/9/2014
5/2/2014
4/25/2014
4/18/2014
4/11/2014
4/4/2014
41705
Note: Rates for freight leaving the Great Lakes are quoted for 18,000 MT "Salties."
General
Index
415.5
422.7
425.3
425.5
428.8
425.3
433.0
430.6
427.6
420.1
418.9
415.9
415.2
418.0
426.0
431.3
431.6
430.0
432.6
437.6
435.8
435.7
435.3
437.6
434.8
438.5
440.9
450.7
450.8
451.1
Grain Freight
Index
502.9
511.7
514.7
511.5
514.8
508.5
517.9
517.1
513.3
507.9
506.8
505.3
505.1
508.1
511.4
518.1
520.3
519.1
521.5
530.2
530.2
529.7
528.8
530.9
529.3
533.2
536.0
539.3
536.4
540.4
Number of
Fixtures
608
523
517
469
530
480
474
424
487
499
503
470
556
543
543
447
522
546
492
455
337
445
449
340
447
262
376
355
362
Ocean Freight Rate Indices
600
550
500
450
400
350
300
Aug-13
60
Canada
1.125
1.128
1.112
1.113
1.033
1.050
8.85%
7.07%
Egypt
7.170
7.170
7.170
7.170
6.908
5.499
3.79%
30.38%
EU
0.791
0.781
0.786
0.791
0.726
0.666
8.91%
18.80%
Japan
107.615
106.023
107.923
108.671
97.554
91.746
10.31%
17.30%
Russia
Apr-14
Jun-14
Aug-14
General
Egyptian Freight Estimates
40
30
20
10
0
Aug-13
Nov-13
Feb-14
May-14
Gulf origin
Aug-14
PNW origin
Selected Exchange Rates
480
41.628
40.833
40.031
39.646
31.762
28.993
31.06%
43.58%
Feb-14
50
euro/US dollar xx
Brazil
2.497
2.465
2.385
2.487
2.180
1.718
14.54%
45.33%
Dec-13
Grain
Sources: *Trade representatives and recent shipments, **Maritime Research, Inc., ***Nominal Major Currencies, Federal Reserve Board
Summary of Foreign Currency Exchange Rates (versus $1 U.S. dollar)
Week Ending
Index***
Argentina
Australia
10/24/14
N/A
8.493
1.141
10/17/14
106.00
8.478
1.141
10/10/14
106.13
8.467
1.132
10/3/14
106.70
8.453
1.139
10/24/13
100.55
5.858
1.036
10/24/09
100.66
3.824
1.080
1 year change
5.45
44.99%
10.14%
5 year change
5.34
122.09%
5.57%
Oct-13
0.85
1.30
0.80
1.25
1.20
0.75
1.15
0.70
1.10
0.65
1.05
0.60
1.00
0.55
0.50
Oct-13
0.95
0.90
Dec-13
Feb-14 Apr-14
euro
Jun-14
Aug-14
Canadian dollar
The weekly prices as reported by U.S. Wheat Associates are compiled through research from numerous market sources, including U.S. wheat exporters of all classes from various U.S. ports. The prices reported are representative of the value
of number two grade and the proteins indicated. They are not intended to represent offers nor should importers of U.S. wheat rely upon them as such. Additional factors may alter these prices significantly. These factors may include:
(1) payment terms (differing from cash against documents which are the terms used in the U.S. Wheat Associates price report); (2) various quality factors, and method of quality certification; (3) loading terms (USW prices represent
Free on Board and do not include loading rate guarantees, stevedoring costs or other elevator tariff charges); (4) different delivery periods than indicated in monthly prices reported by U. S. Wheat Associates.
U.S. Wheat Associates recommends regular contact with exporters of U.S. wheat in order to receive offers representative of your requirements. These contracts would allow importers to review contract terms and better understand the
U.S. grading system, role and function of the Federal Grain Inspection Service (FGIS).
Contact: For questions, please contact Casey Chumrau at (703) 650-0241 or [email protected].
Canadian/US dollar
Handy
25-30 TMT
17
37
40
20
30
48
34
34
$/metric ton
Ocean Freight Rate Estimates by Origin*
Export
Import
Region
Region
US Gulf
Mexico (Veracruz)
W. South America (Peru/Ecu)
S. South America (Chile)
N. South America (Colombia)
E. South America (Brazil)
West Africa (Nigeria)
East Mediterranean (Italy)
West Mediterranean (Morocco)
Middle East (Egypt)
Japan
Mid Atlantic
N. South America (Venezuela)
West Africa (Nigeria)
Middle East (Egypt)
St. Lawrence N. South America (Venezuela)
Europe/Rotterdam
Middle East (Egypt)
Great Lakes
East Mediterranean (Italy)
West Mediterranean (Spain)
Rotterdam
West Africa (Morocco/Algeria)
PNW
W. South America (Peru/Ecu)
S. South America (Chile)
N. South America (Colombia)
Middle East (Egypt)
East Africa (Djibouti/Mombasa)
South Asia (Mal/Indon/Phil/Sing)
Taiwan
South Korea
Japan
Nearby Futures Contract Prices
10
220
9
200
cents/bushel XXl
8
$/bushel
HRW Basis at PNW and Gulf Ports
(ordinary protein)
240
7
180
160
140
120
100
6
80
60
5
40
20
0
Oct-13
4
Oct-13
Dec-13
Feb-14
KBOT
Apr-14
Jun-14
MGE
Aug-14
Oct-14
Dec-13
Feb-14
Apr-14
Jun-14
PNW
CBOT
Aug-14
Oct-14
Gulf
HRW Protein Premiums - PNW
HRS Basis at Various Ports
260
500
240
220
400
200
350
180
cents/bushel XX
cents/bushel XX
450
300
250
200
160
140
120
100
80
150
60
100
40
50
0
Oct-13
20
Dec-13
Feb-14
Jun-14
PNW HRS 14
Aug-14
0
Oct-13
Oct-14
Dec-13
Feb-14
Apr-14
ords
G.L. HRS 14
Jun-14
Aug-14
Oct-14
Aug-14
Oct-14
12% protein
HRW Cash Prices at the Gulf
SW and SRW Nearby Cash Prices
370
12
350
10
8
310
$/bushel
$/metric ton
330
October 24, 2014
Weekly Price Report (page 3)
U.S. Wheat Associates
Gulf HRS 14
Apr-14
290
270
6
4
250
2
230
210
Oct-13
0
Dec-13
Feb-14
PNW SW
Apr-14
Jun-14
Aug-14
Oct-14
Gulf SRW
Custom graphs of historic nearby cash prices may be accessed at:
http://www.uswheat.org/priceReports/nearbyCash
Oct-13
Dec-13
Feb-14
Apr-14
KCBOT Futures
Jun-14
Gulf HRW basis
Basis and cash prices for different delivery months are also available at:
http://www.uswheat.org/priceReports/deliverymonth
U.S. Wheat Associates
Weekly Price Report
Highlights:
October 24, 2014
Daily Settlement Prices (SEP14)
* Wheat futures closed mixed this week despite hitting a six-week high on Thursday. Markets found
6.4
strength midweek from planting delays in the Midwest and production issues in Australia and Russia.
But weak export demand, a strengthening dollar and technical selling all pushed markets lower on
Monday and Friday. Volatility in corn and soy also caused fluctuations in wheat. CBOT December wheat
gained 2 cents to $5.18/bu. KCBT lost 8 cents to $5.94/bu and MGEX dropped 3 cents to $5.67/bu.
CBOT December corn added 5 cents to $3.53/bu and CBOT November soybeans gained 26 cents to
$9.78/bu.
$/bu
6
5.6
5.2
* USDA reported total U.S. winter wheat as 76% planted by Oct. 19, in line with the five-year average. But
4.8
SRW seeding was behind in several states including Illinois and Indiana.
4.4
10/20/14
10/21/14
10/22/14
CBOT
KCBT
10/23/14
10/24/14
MGEX
* Argentina’s Economy Ministry authorized exports of an additional 400,000 MT of wheat this week, in
addition to the 1.5 MMT previously authorized for old crop wheat. There are reports the Ministry will
authorize new crop exports next week. USDA expects Argentina’s 2014/15 exports to rebound to 6.0
MMT, up from just 2.2 MMT last year.
* Analyst group SovEcon said this week that a lack of moisture in Russia has already hindered winter
Wheat Futures Forward Curve
wheat development and 2015/16 production could fall below 50.0 MMT. If realized, it would be lowest
since 2012/13 and 15% below 2014/15.
6.40
* In its weekly export sales update, USDA reported net sales of 299,400 MT, down 39 percent from the
6.00
$/bu
prior 4-week average and below trade expectations of 350,000 to 500,000 MT.
5.60
* The Baltic Panamax Index closed unchanged from last Friday at 865.
5.20
* The US Dollar Index closed higher this week at 85.80, up from 85.30.
4.80
4.40
SEP 14
DEC 14
CBOT
MAR 15
KCBT
MGEX
MAY 15