Benson Quinn Commodities Inc. Minneapolis, MN Wheat January 9, 2015 Settlements: MWH5 MWK5 MWN5 Close 603 ¼ 609 ¾ 616 ½ Change -5 ¼ -5 ½ -5 ¾ High 614 619 625 ¾ Low 600 ¾ 607 ¼ 614 ¼ KWH5 KWK5 KWN5 600 ½ 605 ¼ 609 ¼ -7 ¼ -7 -6 ¼ 612 ½ 616 ½ 619 598 602 ½ 606 ¼ WH5 WK5 563 ¾ 567 ¾ -3 ¼ -4 ¼ 574 578 ½ 561 ¾ 565 ¾ Review: Wheat futures had a defensive tone overnight before trying to recover early in the session on light short covering ahead of the weekend. The borderline oversold nature of the wheat markets and firmer trade in corn and soybeans were primary factors in markets that lacked fresh inputs. Credit position squaring ahead of the report for rather subdued volume in the row crop markets. Volume in the wheat markets was ok as those looking to cover shorts found a few voids on the offer side. Funds were estimated net sellers of 1,000 Chicago wheat contracts. I doubt any of the early buying was new capital. It didn’t appear the commitment to add length was ever very strong. The weaker tone in the US dollar may be viewed as a supportive input. I doubt it had much influence. Once the ebbs and flows of pre-weekend short covering ran its course, the weaker tone of the last few sessions. The KC market took on water quickly with new lows late in the session. Chicago and Mpls took direction from this selling with help from index fund selling in the Chicago market. Index fund selling in Chicago was probably about 4,000 contracts on the close. Despite all three markets finding their way into oversold conditions, the technical structure behind the market looks absolutely awful. One can always give some credit for lower trade to a dim view towards US exports as the paradigm behind that aspect of the market simply hasn’t changed much. However, weaker futures have helped basis levels try to stabilize. There is talk of additional Chinese demand for US spring wheat, which I don’t doubt. The cash market isn’t trading as if there has been a slew of spring wheat business done at this point. The focus on Monday’s report will be on SRW acreage. The trade is looking for something in the neighborhood of 8 m acres, which would be down about 500,000 from the prior year. I am looking for the estimate to come in below that market. I am also looking for this data to be reflected immediately in the inter-market spreads. The COT report, including options, as of Jan 6th, shows funds were active sellers of Chicago and KC wheat, while adding length in Mpls. The fund positions in all three markets are manageable, but don’t fit the current technical structure of the market very well at all. Without some fundamental support, I expect the funds to stay on the sell side. Brian Henry Volume/Open Interest (# of Contracts): Volume Open Interest MW 7,478 70,302 KW 21,757 132,990 W 74,936 375,128 Net Change +626 +1,367 -1,758 Technicals: MWH5 KWH5 WH5 Support 606 565 ¼ 520 ¾ Resist 680 ½ 675 632 USDA Weekly Export Data: Date Inspections (MT) 1/01 Wheat Sales (MT) 1/01 HRS (MT) 1/01 HRW (MT) 1/01 SRW (MT) 1/01 Domestic Rail Market: HRS: Mar Protein 13.00 13.50 14.00 14.50 15.00 Basis Change -+5/-- +100/+150 +125/+184 ---/+9 +320/+400 -5/-- Change --- HRS Daily Receipts Cars 102 50-Day MA 609 ½ 622 ¾ 579 Trade Est. 275-400 Actual 352,829 151,000 123,500 -29,300 7,100 200-350 N/A N/A N/A HRW: Mar +50/+75 +85/+100 HRS PNW Month Basis Jan +250/H Feb +260/H 20-Day MA 630 ¼ 640 ¾ 607 ¼ Protein Ords. 11.00 12.00 13.00 14.00 +85/+95 +85/+95 +85/+95 +85/+95 +80/+90 Change +5 +5 +5 +5 -- HRW Gulf Month Basis Jan +112/H Feb +115/H Change --- Trains Basis 1 Deliverable Stocks (Thou Bus): Jan 2nd Week Ago Del Total Del Total Chicago 8,290 8,590 8,459 8,759 Toledo 18,758 19,078 18,823 19,143 Year Ago Del Total 10,222 10,222 24,320 24,522 Hutch KC Salina Wichita 13,888 6,963 10,192 16,642 13,888 6,966 10,772 17,224 14,824 6,963 10,134 17,511 14,824 6,963 10,714 17,912 20,595 10,687 15,271 22,081 20,595 10,853 15,365 22,806 Mpls. Duluth 5,598 14,834 5,598 15,987 5,518 14,283 5,518 15,436 3,970 15,858 3,970 17,102 Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Information contained herein is believed reliable. Benson Quinn Commodities, Inc. does not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete. Opinions expressed reflect judgment at this date and are subject to change without notice. BQCI is a wholly owned subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company An Introducing Broker for ADMIS 701 South 4th Avenue, Suite 800, Minneapolis, MN 55415, 1-800-438-7070