Market Analysis and Feasibility Studies Alison Davis Rural Economic Development
Market Analysis and Feasibility Studies Alison Davis Rural Economic Development Extension Specialist University of Kentucky Conducting a Feasibility Study Too often, we launch new ideas without thinking through what our market is Preparing a feasibility study will help you determine if there is sufficient demand for the product or service AND can the product or service be provided on a profitable OR sustainable basis? Before you begin we should think about the following questions… What defined market am I trying to reach? What specific companies/organizations are servicing this market? Are they successful? Something similar? What is their market share? Is the market saturated or wide open? Questions continued… What is the size of the market? How can you reach this market? Is it growing? Is it stable, volatile, trendy? How are competitors currently reaching the market? What do customers expect from this type of product or service? Questions continued… What are the business models of competitors? What core competencies must the product or service have? What are “customers” willing to pay for this service or product? What is your competitive advantage? Market Assessment A market assessment may be conducted to help determine the viability of a proposed product in the marketplace. The assessment will help you identify opportunities in the market or market segment If no opportunities are found, then you don’t have to continue on with the feasibility study. If opportunities are found, the market assessment can give focus and direction to the “big idea”. Overview of a feasibility study Description of the project Market feasibility Technical feasibility Financial/Economic feasibility Organizational/Managerial Feasibility Results/Next Steps/Conclusion Difference between feasibility study and business plan A feasibility study is NOT a business plan. Feasibility study provides an investigating function – “is this viable?” Business plan provides a planning function. The business plan outlines the actions needed to take the proposal from “idea” to “reality” Often feasibility studies identify more than once alternative to the proposed idea The feasibility study is prepared before the business plan. Why do a feasibility study? Gives focus to the project Narrows alternatives Surfaces new opportunities Enhances the probability of success by addressing factors early that could affect the project Provides quality information for decision making Helps in securing funding Helps to increase investment in idea Description of the project Identification and exploration of project scenarios Identify alternative scenarios Eliminate scenarios that don’t make sense Flesh-out scenarios that appear to have potential for future exploration Description of the Project Definition of the project and alternative scenarios and models List type and quality of service to be marketed Outline the general business model Include the technical processes, size, location, and kind of inputs Specify the time horizon from the time the project is initiated until it is up and running at capacity. Description of the project Relationship to the surrounding geographical area Identify economic and social impact on local communities List environmental impact on the surrounding area Market Feasibility Industry Description Describe the size and scope of the market Estimate the future direction of the market Describe the nature of the market Identify the life-cycle of the market Market Feasibility “Industry” Competitiveness Investigate industry concentration Analyze major competitors Explore barriers of entry into market Determine concentration and competitiveness of input suppliers Identify price competitiveness of service Market potential Identify the demand and usage trends of the market or market segment Examine the potential for emerging market opportunities Assess estimated market usage and potential share of the market Market Feasibility Access to market outlets Identify the potential “buyers” of the service and the associated marketing costs Investigate the distribution system and the costs involved Technical Feasibility Determine facility needs Estimate the size and type of production facilities Investigate the need for related building and equipment Investigate and compare technology providers Identify limitations or constraints of technology Technical Feasibility Availability and suitability of site Access to markets Access to transportation Access to a qualified labor pool Access to production inputs Explore economic development incentives Explore community receptiveness to have service located there. Program Evaluation: A Primer The Evaluation Process Focusing the evaluation Collecting the information Using the information Focusing the evaluation What do you intend to evaluate? What time frame? The whole program? A portion of it? Immediate impact? Long-term result? Behavioral impact or impacts which require a more comprehensive evaluation and level of effort? Who are the clientele? Whose impacts are we measuring? What is the purpose of evaluation? Help others understand the program and its results? Improve the program? Did the program make a difference in someone’s life? Answer questions posed by funders and influential members of the community? Who will use the evaluation? How? People affected in some way by the program County board members, elected officials Community leaders Current funders Potential future funders Examples of Who, What, and How Who might use evaluation? What do they want to know? How will they use the results? You Is the program meeting clientele needs? To make decisions about modifying the program County board Who does the program serve? To make decisions about budget allocations? Is the program costeffective? Potential funder Is there a net benefit from this program? To make funding decisions What questions will the evaluation seek to answer? About outcomes/impacts What do people do differently as a result of the program? Who benefits and how? Are the program’s accomplishments worth the resources invested? What are the strengths and weaknesses of the program? What, if any, are unintended secondary consequences? How well does the program respond to the initiating need? What questions will the evaluation seek to answer? About program context How well does the program fit in the local setting? What in the socio-economic-political environment inhibits or contributes to program success? Who else works on similar concerns? Is there duplication? Collecting the Information Indicators Numerical and narrative Will your audience be impressed with numbers and statistics? Will your audience by impressed with human interest stories and examples of real situations? Will a combination of numbers and narrative information be valuable? What sources of information will you use? Existing information People Previous reports, census data, other agency records Program’s participants, proponents and critics, legislators, funders, and policy makers Observations Direct observation of program events, activities and results What data collection method will you use? Survey Interview Observation Case Study Testimonials Expert review When will data be collected? Before and after the program? At one time? At various times during the course of the program? Over time? Using the information How will data be analyzed? How will responses be organized/tabulated? Do you need separate tabulations from different locations or groups? What, if any, statistical techniques will be used? Who will organize and analyze the information? How will evaluation be shared? Written report Film or video Media releases Internet postings Economic Impact Analysis A quantitative tool often used to evaluate community projects What is Economic Impact Analysis? Economic Impact Analysis (EIA) models focus on how elements of the local economy are interrelated and how a change in one element may affect the others. These relationships can help predict important aspects of economic change such as: Employment and unemployment Commuting and migration trends Changes in government spending Why do we compute EIA models? In smaller communities, elected officials often lack the technical skills for economic analysis Communities need information to help anticipate and respond to economic changes Local leaders and citizens face difficult questions about the impacts of changes such as business growth, decline of traditional industrial and evolving land uses When seeking funding, having a dollar value impact of a program might make the proposal more attractive Choices made prior to analysis Communicating with the community is essential when setting up the model. Dialogue within the community will determine 1) The nature and scope of the study (i.e. deciding where to measure: county-wide or regional impacts) 2) The required data 3) The research methods What are the general results? Direct answers to direct questions Changes in employment Changes in community income Changes in tax revenue Changes in related industries The process, if done correctly, should result in a stronger sense of community; the process should involve input from diverse groups across the community Input-Output Analysis Input-Output analysis creates a picture of a regional economy describing flows to and from industries and institutions Examples of Interrelationships Between Sectors: Sectors purchase from other sectors Sectors sell to other sectors Sectors sell outside the local economy Sectors buy outside the local economy Sectors pay their employees Sectors pay taxes Inputs $ Overview of Community Economic System $ Products Basic Industry Labor $ $ Inputs Goods & Services Households $ $ Services $ Input-Output Models An input/output table quantifies the transactions between sectors in an economy. It’s a “snap-shot” of the economy for a oneyear period. By understanding these linkages, we are able to predict how a change in one sector will affect the other sectors. Multipliers can be estimated. Example: Transactions Table Purchasing Sectors ($ million) Agriculture Health Selling Sectors ($ million) Agriculture Services Final Total Demands Output 10 6 2 18 36 Health 4 4 3 26 37 Services 6 2 1 35 44 Final Payments 16 25 38 0 79 Total Input 36 37 44 79 196 Predictive Use of Input-Output Analysis Impacts are tracked throughout the economy Multipliers are derived from regional economic accounts Only local transactions are used to create the multiplier effect Multipliers What are Multipliers? Multipliers measure total change throughout the economy from a one unit change for a given sector. Multipliers Direct effects represent direct or initial spending Type I - Direct and indirect effects include the direct spending plus the indirect spending or businesses buying and selling to each other Type II - Direct, indirect and induced effects include direct and indirect plus household spending earned from direct and indirect effects Multipliers Continued Three multipliers are used to describe the economic impact: Employment Income (Value-Added) Output (Receipts) Interpretation of Multipliers You will often see values for multipliers in the media, the interpretation of these numbers typically causes confusion Example 1 Type II employment multiplier (Ag) = 2.25 When the Agricultural Sector realizes a 1 employee change, total employment in the study area changes by 2.25 jobs from direct, indirect and induced effects Multipliers Continued Example 2 Type II Income Multiplier (Ag) = 1.78 When the Agricultural Sector realizes a $1.00 change in income, total income in the study area changes by $1.78 from direct and indirect linkages Multiplier Cautions (Very Important) Multipliers are NOT interchangeable (i.e. employment and value added multipliers are very different, thus you can’t use one for the other) Not transferable to other study areas or across different time periods No differentiation between full-time and part-time jobs Results less certain for new types of economic activity They do tend to overstate the impact of change Take caution for multipliers larger than 3 IMPLAN Software A talented person could probably figure out relationships for a 6 sector economy An economy with more than 500 sectors is another story IMPLAN software does the work for us and calculates multipliers IMPLAN is relatively expensive, hence the need for a partnership with the University Pushing the local initiative “Kentucky Proud” “Buy Local” When we keep our money local, the multipliers are larger allowing more money to flow in the local economy, resulting in higher incomes for local residents Local Examples The Economic Impact of Various Health Related Services on the Local Economy Impact of Health Sector Impact of a Rural Physician Economic Impact of Health Care Sector Estill County Health Care Sector Impact on County Employment Direct Impact of Health care Employment 432 Jobs Indirect Impact of Health Care Employment 25.5 Jobs Induced Impact of Health Care Employment 64 Jobs Employment Multiplier 1.21 Total Impact Of Health Care Employment. 521.4 Jobs Source: 2000 IMPLAN Data Base Estill County Health Care Sector Impact on County Revenue (Sales) Direct Impact of Health care Sector Output $20,172,564 Indirect Impact of Health Care Sector Output $1,530,139 Source: 2000 IMPLAN Data Base Induced Impact of Health Care Sector Output $2,961,219 Output (Sales) Multiplier 1.22 Total Impact Of Health Care Sector Output (Sales) $24,663,922 Interpretation Employment Multiplier: 1.21 For every employee hired in the health sector there are an additional 0.21individuals employed because of indirect and induced effects. Output Multiplier: 1.22 For every $1 of sales in the health sector there is an additional $0.22 of revenue generated due to indirect and induced effects The Economic Impact of a Rural Physician in Kentucky Other Interesting Potential Economic Impact Studies The Economic Impact of the new sports complex in Knott County The Economic Impact of Eco-tourism in Eastern Kentucky The Economic Impact of Agriculture in Kentucky The Economic Impact of a manufacturing firm leaving a rural town Model Limitations Based on a set of assumptions that might restrict the model. Other modeling techniques can be used to provide a range of impacts, not one single number Economic impacts should only be part of the discussion. We should not ignore the following: Quality of Life Environmental Impacts Social and Cultural History Equity Impacts THIS IS WHY COMMUNITY INVOLVEMENT IS VITAL
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