1. No category

Geography 312
(Natural Hazards)
Instructor:
Ian Hutchinson (RCB7226)
ph: 778-782-3232
email: [email protected]
Course email: [email protected]
TAs: Elizabeth Baird & Andrew Perkins
Geography 312 - Lecture 1
 Course outline
- schedule, lectures, assignments,
- text, grades
 Term project
 Course themes
Lecture schedule
 The course schedule and all the Powerpoint
lecture slides are available on the web. Go to:
http://www.sfu.ca/~ianh/geog312/
 “Thumbnail” versions are available for purchase.
 The lectures are NOT taped.
Tutorials/Assignments
 To preview the assignments go to the course web
site. Printed versions of each assignment will be
handed out prior to each tutorial.
 Suggested readings for each tutorial are available
on the web site as pdf’s
 Tutorial grades are based on participation in
workshops and discussion groups. Assignments are
for educational purposes; they are not graded.
Text, Grading….
• Text - Keller, E.A., Blodgett, R.H. & Clague, J.J.
2008. “Natural Hazards”. Pearson Canada
• Grading
Tutorial participation: 20%
Term project 30%
Midterm exam 20%
Final exam 30%*
Term project
 Choose a topic (check with TA);
 Keep a journal (notes, lists of
sources, etc.);
 Prepare a poster in Powerpoint;
 Copy the poster to a CD (along with
your journal)
The concept of “natural” hazards
Definition:
“Events associated with normal*
geophysical and biological processes
that cause death, injury or loss of
home, property or income”.
* the intensity of the hazard may be influenced by
human modifications of the landscape (e.g.
deforestation and urbanization influence flood
frequency and magnitudes) or climate (e.g. heat
waves in urban areas).
Source: Emmanuelle Bournay; UNEP/GRID-Arendal
Concept of hazard thresholds [ ]
(e.g. fatalities/damage per earthquake)
1000
10000
1000
100
100
10
10
1
1
…………………………………………
Earthquake magnitude
1
10
Natural Hazards
• From the preceding it follows that:
Natural hazards are associated with
extreme events in the normal operation of
the planet’s geological, hydrological and
ecological systems.
Natural hazards are limited to inhabited
areas (i.e. vulnerable settlements or
economic infrastructure).
Concept of vulnerability
(e.g. fatalities in two contrasting societies)
1000
100
10
1
1
…………………………………………
Earthquake magnitude
10
The concept of risk
RISK = HAZARD X VULNERABILITY
Hazard = natural processes capable of causing
death and/or destruction;
Vulnerability = social or economic sensitivity to
the effects of hazards
Calculating risk
Example 1: same hazard; contrasting vulnerabilities
Magnitude 6.5 earthquake in south-central California,
on Dec. 22, 2003: 7 dead, ~50 injured because
the event occurred in a thinly inhabited area
(low risk event)
Magnitude 6.5 earthquake in city of Bam (Iran)
on Dec. 26, 2003: ~40,000 dead, ~30,000 injured;
much of the city destroyed (very high risk event)
Calculating risk
Example 2: contrasting hazards; same risk
Severe snowfall in the Lower Mainland
Annual risk ($) = Pblizzard X Cost*
= 0.1
X $10 M? = $1 M
“Tunguska” asteroid impact in the Lower Mainland
Annual risk ($) = Pimpact
X Cost*
= 0.000001 X $100 G? = $1 M?
*Costs = deaths, injuries, building collapse, rescue, cleanup, lost
production, rebuilding, etc.;
(often very difficult to assign a dollar value).
Combating risk: the five steps
•Assess: characterize the hazard regime;
•Mitigate: reduce vulnerability;
•Prepare: educate; warn; evacuate;
•Respond: remove bodies, locate and treat
survivors, destroy unstable structures;
•Recover: rebuild communities and
infrastructure
Combating risk: roles
•Assessment: natural and social scientists,
(GEOG 312)
•Mitigation: engineers, etc.
•Preparation: emergency managers, etc.
•Initial Response: medics, etc.
•Recovery: planners, etc.
Assessment: types of risk
 “physical” = living in a hazardous area
 “personal” = your age/gender/education influences
your risk
 “economic” = poverty reduces your options
 “structural” = poor quality buildings and lifelines
 “political” = limited access to information and/or
resources
 “institutional” - your local, state or national
government does not enforce regulations
all of these may apply!
Hazard assessment
Natural scientists analyse
the physical risks:
Environmental processes
Causes and
precursors
Recurrence
Forecasting and
mitigation
Magnitude-frequency
relations
Assessing individual hazards:
e.g. hurricanes in Atlantic Canada
Damage resulting from the high winds and heavy rain of Hurricane Juan
in Halifax, Nova Scotia, Sept. - Oct. 2003
QuickTime™ and a
TIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
Photos: CBC News archives
QuickTime™ and a
TIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
Hazard assessment: causes
Hurricane
Juan, Sept.
28, 2003.
Juan was an
exceptional
storm. Why did
it track directly
northward?
QuickTime™ and a
TIFF (LZW) decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
Hazard assessment: magnitude
Juan was
forecast to
reach Nova
Scotia as a 65to 70-knot
hurricane, but
intensified to
85 knots (a
“category 2”
hurricane).
Why?
QuickTime™ and a
TIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
Answer at: http://www.atl.ec.gc.ca/weather/hurricane/juan/intensity_e.html
Hazard assessment: recurrence
Halifax last suffered a direct hurricane strike in 1893.
Do hurricanes in the Atlantic provinces therefore recur
about once every 100 years on average?
Sources of information:
• Instrumental records (~100 yr record)
• Explorers’ logs, settlers’ diaries (~400 yr record?)
• Micmac oral traditions (?)
• Biological evidence (e.g. downed trees; several
centuries?)
• Geological evidence (e.g. overwash deposits; several
millennia?)
Hazard assessment:
will the future differ from the past?
Tropical storms and hurricanes in the NW Atlantic
QuickTime™ and a
TIFF (LZW) decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
Graph: Munich Re, 2004
Hazard assessment:
focusing on place, not process
• Case studies of individual hazards do
not reveal the hazardousness of a
particular place
• multiple risks in any area
• risk assessment must integrate all of
these
• = local “geography of danger”
A “geography of danger” for Halifax,
Nova Scotia might look like this:
High risk
Low risk
blizzards and ice storms
extreme temperatures
fogs
droughts
pests and diseases
hurricanes
tsunamis
Towards a global geography of danger:
the complexity of the task
• 20% of Earth’s land surface exposed to
severe hazards;
• >30% of North American population
live in hazard-prone areas;
• Many areas (e.g. Indonesia, Taiwan,
Guatemala) exposed to multiple severe
hazards.
Deaths from natural hazards (1991-2005)
Eruptions
Floods
Earthquakes and
tsunamis
Storms
Slides Droughts
N.B. excludes epidemics
A global geography of
danger: natural
catastrophes [2005-7]
QuickTime™ and a
TIFF (LZW) decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
2005
QuickTime™ and a
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2006
Earthquakes, eruptions
Storms
Droughts, wildfires
Floods
Source: Munich Re Annual Reports
QuickTime™ and a
TIFF (LZW) decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
2007
A geography of danger:
natural hazard fatalities [1991-2005]
Asia
Asia
Americas
Americas
Europe
Europe
Africa
Africa
Oceania
0
Oceania
20
40
60
Annual number of deaths (thousands)
0
5
10
15
Mortality rate / M population
Data: EM-Dat
A geography of danger: the known
‘quake
volcano
flood
cyclone landslide drought
(e.g. Indonesia [data 1907-2004])
Source: Center for Hazards and Risk Research, Columbia University
And the unexpected!
2004/12
2005/03
Tsunamis
2006/07
“the global analysis undertaken in these projects is
clearly limited by issues of scale as well as by the
availability and quality of data.”
Arthur Lerner-Lam (Columbia U.)
Nimble systems:
anticipating unexpected hazards
“On January 17, 1994, the costliest earthquake in
the history of the United States struck the Los
Angeles region, killing 57 people, leaving 20,000
homeless, and causing more than $20 billion in
damage to homes, public buildings, freeways, and
bridges. This magnitude 6.7 quake occurred 10
miles beneath the town of Northridge on a
previously unknown ramp-like ("thrust") fault not
visible at the Earth's surface.”
USGS Fact-Sheet 110-99
ALL the earthquakes in California in
the 1990’s occurred on previously
unknown faults!
Assessing
vulnerabilty
Source:
The Economist
(February 7, 2004)
Vulnerability assessment
Social scientists analyze
the vulnerability matrix
Environmental processes
Perception
Social impacts
Mitigation and
education
Disaster response
Investigating personal
vulnerability: perception
London, Ontario
Hewitt & Burton (1974)
Investigating personal vulnerability:
fatalities by age
0.4
25
0-14
15-49
20
Age group
% of population
% of population
50+
15
10
0.3
0-19
20-59
>60
0.2
0.1
5
0
0
Aceh (2004)
Indian Ocean
tsunami
Bangladesh (1991)
Bay of Bengal
storm surge
New Orleans
Hurricane Katrina (2005)
ratio of female:male deaths
Investigating personal vulnerability:
fatalities by gender
WHY?
differing strength?
stamina? cultural
behaviours? (e.g. taboos swimming? climbing trees?)
2.5
2
1.5
equality
1
0.5
0
Banda
Aceh
Aceh
Barat
Sumatra
Aceh East
Tamil
Nadu
India
Data from Indian Ocean tsunami
(2004)
However, the female
fatality rate during
Hurricane Katrina was only
slighter higher (4%) than
that of the male
population, and this was
likely a product of the
greater number of women
in the over-60’s age group.
Investigating economic vulnerability
Deaths from typhoons (1980-88)
# e ven ts
# de at h s
d ea t h s/
e ve nt
Ja pa n
11
254
23
Ph ili p pi ne s
22
4322
196
8
10733
1341
Ba ng la de s h
wealth = greater preparedness
Investigating
economic vulnerability
(Hurricane Charley, Fla., 2004;
Hurricane Katrina, La., 2005)
QuickTime™ and a
TIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
poverty = greater exposure to risk;
wealth = greater preparedness & more flexible response?
US Hurricane hazards
100000
Deaths
Damage (US$M; 1992 $)
Deaths and damages (US$M)
10000
10 per. Mov. Avg. (Damage (US$M;
1992 $))
10 per. Mov. Avg. (Deaths)
Changing
patterns of
vulnerability
in the
developed
world
1000
100
10
1
1900
1920
1940
1960
1980
2000
Structural-institutional vulnerability
(e.g. Marmara earthquake, Turkey, 1999)
~17,000 dead; 15% of buildings collapsed near epicentre (CA
code but ~70% illegal - amnesty for illegal buildings; little
professional liability; corruption ubiquitous; widespread onsite modifications, e.g. extra floors, of approved buildings);
communications cut off; nationwide power outage; failure
of political leadership.
Photos: Damaged buildings in the vicinity of Gölcük
Investigating personal responses:
flight or fight?
Reactions to the Okanagan Mountain Park fire of
August, 2003
• KR (aged 22) said
that she’d never
build in a forest
again after her Kettle
Valley home was
reduced to ash
Quoted in The Province,
Aug. 25, 2003 (p. A5)
• KR (aged 35) said he’d
rebuild in an instant.
His family’s home was
razed. “It was a fluke”
…“If you live on the
ocean and a tidal wave
comes, they’d say we
shouldn’t live on the
ocean.”
Investigating the agencies:
(e.g. post-Hurricane Katrina)
 were the evacuation orders
effective?
 were rescue efforts well-organized?
 did everyone in need find the
shelters or aid centres?
 was aid distribution effective?
Post-disaster recovery?
(Hurricane Katrina )
2006:
• population of New Orleans ~ 50% of that prior to hurricane; 45% fewer hospital
beds; ~1/3 of schools still shut;
• Rents increased by 40% in one year because of housing shortage; suicide rate
in city quadrupled; almost 90% of ‘refugees’ in Houston still unemployed;
• Port of NO (#1 port in US) operating at less than 50% capacity 3 months after
hurricane.
August 2008 survey of residents of New Orleans:
• 55% feel that there has been little or no progress in rebuilding neighborhoods.
• 59% feel that there has been little or no progress in making medical facilities and
services more available.
• 72% said federal recovery money has been "mostly misspent."
• 58% said NO had a ”very serious" problem with political corruption.
• 84% face continuing health problems, and 65% reported some sort of chronic
condition or disability, up from 45% in 2006.
Increasing global vulnerability?
700
600
Losses from natural disasters
US $ G
500
400
300
200
100
0
1950s
1960s
1970s
1980s
1990s
(Data: Munich Re, 2001)
Information and perception
(reported volcanic eruptions, 1860-1980)
Has there been an overall increase in activity?
GEOG 312
Your command of
nat.haz information
Blessings?
Personal vulnerability?
- residence, workplace
Career path?
- community vulnerability
Empathy?
- global vulnerability
1 …………………. 13 …..
week
“How horrible it is to have so many people killed!
And what a blessing that one cares for none of them!”
Jane Austen writing to her sister on news of the Peninsular War (May 13, 1811)