ToR # 06
POLICY OPTIONS FOR SUPPORTING
AGRICULTURAL DIVERSIFICATION
IN BANGLADESH
IMPLEMENTING INSTITUTION
Bangladesh Agricultural Research Institute (BARI)
United International University (UIU)
BARI and UIU
4 July 2013
NAME
ADDRESS
1. M. A. MONAYEM MIAH
PI & SSO, AED, BARI
2. A. K. ENAMUL HAQUE
CPI & PROF, UIU, DHAKA
3. SAHADAT HOSSAIN
CI & CSO, AED, BARI
4. TANVIR M. B. HOSSAIN
CI & SSO, AED, BARI
5. MD. SADIQUE RAHMAN
CI & Asst. Prof., SAU
6. MD. SAMSUL HAQ
Res. Asst., AED, BARI
BARI and UIU
4 July 2013
 Definition of agricultural diversification
 Rationale of the study
 Methodology
 Profitability and comparative advantage
of major commodities
 Growth performance of major crops
 Diversification in food consumption, agril.
production, agril. trade
 Constraints to agricultural diversification
 Conclusion and Recommendations
BARI and UIU
4 July 2013
 Agricultural diversification implies a shift of resources
from primary staple crop, namely rice and wheat to
other non-cereal crops, and/or to live-stock, poultry,
fisheries & forestry.
 It has been used around the world as a strategy to
minimize risk, minimize income variability over
seasons, optimize the use of land and other resources,
change the food habit, increase protein intake, improve
food security, promote exports, substitute imports,
conserve natural resources, create employment
opportunities and alleviate poverty for the farming
households.
BARI and UIU
4 July 2013
 Agriculture is an important sector of the economy of
Bangladesh. It comprises crop, livestock, fisheries and
forestry sub-sectors accounting for 55.7%, 13.24%,
22.37% and 8.68% of agricultural GDP respectively.
 AD towards products with higher value-added contributed
to more rapid agricultural income growth and might
contribute to local employment creation by stimulating
small farmers’ participation in the market.
 Diversification in production is also likely to lead to
diversification in consumption, which is required for
healthier and more balanced diets.
BARI and UIU
4 July 2013
Consumption pattern has been changed from
cereal to non-cereal food in the last 3 decades.
- Expenditure on cereals decreased 28.87% to 28.41% in urban
areas and 41.23% to 39.62% in rural areas between 2000 and
2010.
Overall demand for fruits, vegetables, dairy
products, fish, fats & edible oils have been
increased.
- Expen. on fruits rose from 4.10% to 5.29% and from 2.59% to
3.49% in urban and rural areas.
- Expen. on fish, meat & eggs and spices rose at national level
from 12.48% to 13.71%; 8.02% to 10.31% and 7.13% to 9.99%.
BARI and UIU
4 July 2013
 The prices of fruits, vegetables, fish and other
non-cereal products have also been increased
significantly.
 Imports of non-cereal food commodities have
also been increased to a large extent.
 Yet progress in agricultural diversification is
not very encouraging.
 Therefore, policy formulation is essential for
diversifying our agriculture to enhance the
production of non-cereal crops and non-crop
commodities.
BARI and UIU
4 July 2013
1. To assist policy makers in identifying policy interventions
that will allow agricultural households to diversify their
agricultural production into micro-nutrient rich foods
and/or those with a strong income generating potential.
2. To examine the past trends of diversification of crop and
non-crop agriculture, and compare the rates of growth to
those in neighboring countries to gain some perspective
on how rapid (or slow) growth in Bangladesh has been.
3. To examine the socioeconomic and agro-climatic
determinants of and constraints to agril. diversification.
BARI and UIU
4 July 2013
What are the past trends of acreage and production of
major food commodities and to what extent they differ from
the trends of neighbouring countries like India and Pakistan?
What are the changes in the consumption of different food
commodities and how they are related to domestic food
production?
What changes have been taken place in financial and
economic profitability of different food commodities over time
and how they affect their production?
What are the constraints to and opportunities for
agricultural diversification in Bangladesh?
What are the determinants of agricultural diversification in
Bangladesh?
BARI and UIU
4 July 2013
 Primary Survey on Farm Households
 Examine the determinants of agril. diversification.
 Explore the constraints and opportunities to AD.
 Analysis of secondary data/study results
 Financial and economic profitability over time.
 Trend and growth rate in domestic production.
 Diversification in consumption, agril. production, and
agricultural trade.
 Data Sources
 Primary data- Field survey
 Secondary data- Res. reports, thesis, j. articles, HIES,
BBS, and FAOstat
BARI and UIU
4 July 2013
Sl. 12 Surplus
No
district
1. Dinajpur
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.
Rangpur
Bogra
Pabna
Jessore
Kustia
Mymensingh
Tangail
Faridpur
Gazipur
Chittagong
Rangamati
Total
BARI and UIU
Selected 10 diversified
Sample
crops
households
Garlic, Maize, Pointed
gourd, Potato
120
Maize, Banana
60
Potato
30
Onion
30
Okra, Pointed gourd,
Culture fish
90
Banana, Okra
60
Culture fish
30
Pineapple
30
Onion, Garlic
60
Poultry
30
Poultry
30
Pineapple
30
600
Control
group
Total
sample
30
30
30
30
150
90
60
60
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
360
120
90
60
60
90
60
60
60
960
4 July 2013
PRESENTATION OF
RESULTS
BARI and UIU
4 July 2013
PROFITABILITY AND COMPARATIVE
ADVANTAGE OF AGRICULTURAL
PRODUCTIONS
BARI and UIU
4 July 2013
1.90
1.70
BCR
1.50
1.30
1.10
0.90
0.70
0.50
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Aus
BARI and UIU
Aman
Boro
4 July 2013
BCR
3
2.8
2.6
2.4
2.2
2
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
BARI and UIU
4 July 2013
BCR
3
2.8
2.6
2.4
2.2
2
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1
2006
BARI and UIU
2007
2008
2009
2010
4 July 2013
4.50
4.00
3.50
BCR
3.00
2.50
2.00
1.50
1.00
0.50
BARI and UIU
4 July 2013
BCR
6.00
5.50
5.00
4.50
4.00
3.50
3.00
2.50
2.00
Orange
BARI and UIU
Mango
Pineapple
Guava
4 July 2013
Carp fish 6.00
Rice-fish
Shrimp
5.00
Carp fish
Pond fish
4.00
Pangas
3.00
Koi fish
2.00
Dairy cow
Goat
1.00
0.00
Cow fatenning
Layer hen
Broiler
Orange
Mango
Pineapple
Guava
Ginger
Garlic
BARI and UIU
Aus Boro
Aman
Wheat
Lentil
Chickpea
Potato
Jute
Maize
Mungbean
Blackgram
Groundnut
Sesame
Onion
Mustard
Soybean
ChiliTurmeric
1. The productions of all
crops and non-crops
enterprises are profitable
2. The profitability of noncereal crop production is
higher than cereal crop
production.
3. Perennial fruit prod. are
the best and livestock &
poultry are the least
profitable agricultural
commodities.
4 July 2013
DRC
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
0.822
DRC
Fine Rice
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
0.568
0.561
0.406
0.433
Aromatic
Rice
Coarse
Rice
0.429
Wheat
Maize
0.48
0.16 0.17 0.17
0.31
0.25 0.27
0.55
Lentil
0.6 0.63
 The values of DRCs
for cereal, lentil and
vegetables are less
than unity.
 It implies that BD has
comparative advantage
in producing these
crops for import
substitutions and
export promotion.
0.37
Source: Rashid et al.2009
Karim et al. 2011
BARI and UIU
4 July 2013
Growth in Production, Acreage
and Yield and their decomposition
Comparative Analysis of
Bangladesh performance with
India and Pakistan
BARI and UIU
4 July 2013
Time period
Area (ac)
Barisal
Chittagong
Dhaka
Khulna
Rajshahi
Sylhet
Rangpur
1990-1994
100
(2437692)
100
(4114112)
100
(6219832)
100
(3168043)
100
(3496853)
100
(2133824)
100
(3683137)
1995-1999
2000-2004
2005-2009
97
104
105
96
100
92
99
107
99
95
104
106
101
115
120
106
101
96
96
104
109
100
(1291896
87
130
135
100
(3149820)
99
126
124
100
(4390888)
104
144
158
100
(2286037)
104
143
162
100
(2879079)
105
144
175
100
(1316327)
116
138
148
100
(2755517)
101
129
162
100 (0.53)
90
125
129
100 (0.76)
103
125
135
100 (0.71)
105
135
159
100 (0.72)
109
137
153
100 (0.82)
104
124
145
100 (0.62)
109
137
154
100 (0.75)
105
124
148
Production (mt)
1990-1994
1995-1999
2000-2004
2005-2009
Yield (t/ac)
1990-1994
1995-1999
2000-2004
2005-2009
BARI and UIU
4 July 2013
Time period
Chittagong
Dhaka
Khulna
Rajshahi
Rangpur
100
(5644)
79
112
264
100
(454)
50
1642
5947
100
(112)
216
15150
63435
100
(891)
54
1199
7316
100
(327)
213
3392
46100
100 (2292)
80
136
924
100(182)
61
5602
29148
100(79)
206
48652
199123
100(272)
64
6988
59281
100(104)
252
15967
381689
100 (0.41)
101
119
345
100 (0.42)
118
299
470
100 (0.69)
96
235
314
100 (0.3)
119
392
804
100 (0.63)
116
402
814
Area (acre)
1990-1994
1995-1999
2000-2004
2005-2009
Production (mt)
1990-1994
1995-1999
2000-2004
2005-2009
Yield (t/acre)
1990-1994
1995-1999
2000-2004
2005-2009
BARI and UIU
4 July 2013
Time period
Area (ac)
Barisal
Chittagong
Dhaka
Khulna
Rajshahi
Sylhet
Rangpur
1990-1994
100
(9942)
52
37
25
100
(11689)
97
105
99
100
(115027)
96
95
75
100
(97844)
98
86
68
100
(138265)
99
95
96
100
(3967)
104
109
103
100
(79020)
90
84
76
100
(120832)
48
27
13
100
(158014)
92
89
71
100
(1665009)
93
94
66
100
(1748354)
160
97
66
100
(2403417)
97
93
102
100
(32869)
101
106
47
100
(1305734)
96
76
64
100
(12.21)
90
72
49
100
(13.58)
94
84
72
100
(14.54)
96
99
87
100
(17.87)
164
112
97
100
(17.38)
99
98
105
100
(8.27)
97
98
45
100
(33.95)
107
93
86
1995-1999
2000-2004
2005-2009
Production(mt)
1990-1994
1995-1999
2000-2004
2005-2009
Yield (t/ac)
1990-1994
1995-1999
2000-2004
2005-2009
BARI and UIU
4 July 2013
BARI and UIU
4 July 2013
Crop
Effect
Yield
Area
Aus
Interaction
Residual
Yield
Area
Aman
Interaction
Residual
Yield
Area
Boro
Interaction
Residual
Yield
Area
Wheat
Interaction
Residual
Yield
Area
Maize
Interaction
Residual
BARI and UIU
Divisions
Barisal
Chittagong
Sylhet
Dhaka
Khulna
Rajshahi
Rangpur
114
-8
6
-12
85
25
10
-20
22
83
5
-10
-106
195
-12
23
60
35
-4
9
-3840
3797
-144
288
129
-18
11
-22
58
48
6
-11
-9
118
9
-18
51
56
7
-14
-212
255
-57
114
116
-13
3
-6
88
14
2
-4
-55
140
-15
30
-----
-22
117
-5
9
76
39
15
-30
-174
163
-111
222
-263
338
-25
50
21
100
21
-42
-127
242
15
-31
99
5
4
-9
6
86
-8
16
-2664
413
-2351
4701
41
98
40
-80
233
-98
36
-72
79
18
-3
7
78
15
-7
14
143
-30
13
-26
-56
122
-34
67
-25
222
-1
-96
245
-24
13
-134
63
140
3
-106
671
-721
76
74
-21
254
27
-160
Bangladesh
-16
132
16
-32
96
14
9
-19
44
59
3
-5
3544
-3214
230
-460
21
92
13
-26
4 July 2013
Division
Effect
Yield
Area
Interaction
Residual
Baris
al
14
84
-1
3
BARI and UIU
Chittago Sylh
Dhaka Khulna
ng
et
53
75
39
6
65
185
61
110
18
160
0
15
-37
-320
0
-31
Rajsh
Rangpur
ahi
20
-292
67
601
-13
683
26
-893
Bangla
desh
7
92
-1
3
4 July 2013
Time
Bangladesh
period Area Prodn Yield Area
Rice
1990-94
100
100
100 100
1995-99
101
110
109 103
2000-04
105
139
133 101
2005-09
107
164
152 102
Wheat
1990-94
100
100
100 100
1995-99
124
148
119
108
2000-04
122
150
122 109
2005-09
74
79
108
113
Maize
1990-94
100
100
100 100
1995-99
97
102
108 105
2000-04
865 3763 383
116
2005-09 4347 26366 596
134
BARI and UIU
India
Pakistan
Prodn Yield Area Prodn Yield
100
109
110
122
100
105
108
120
100
111
111
129
100
131
135
178
100
118
121
138
100
121
128
134
100
111
118
119
100
103
102
108
100
115
128
146
100
111
125
136
100
118
144
187
100
113
124
139
100
109
110
118
100
128
160
273
100
118
145
232
4 July 2013
Time
period
Banana
1990-94
1995-99
2000-04
2005-09
Bangladesh
Area Prodn Yield Area
India
Pakistan
Prodn Yield Area Prodn Yield
100
101
114
141
100
98
101
143
100
96
88
102
100
111
122
162
100
149
164
264
100
134
135
163
100
158
188
210
100
109
167
178
100
72
93
89
100
102
103
299
100
103
116
405
100
101
112
135
100
119
147
193
100
113
115
136
100
94
78
70
100
107
117
192
100
115
128
218
100
107
109
114
100
100
106
122
100
98
108
154
100
98
101
127
100
129
132
137
100
121
132
144
100
93
100
105
-----
-----
-----
Mango
1990-94
1995-99
2000-04
2005-09
Pineapple
1990-94
1995-99
2000-04
2005-09
BARI and UIU
4 July 2013
Time
period
Bangladesh
Area Prodn
India
Yield
Area
Prodn
Pakistan
Yield Area
Prodn
Yield
1990-94
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
1995-99
114
113
99
114
117
103
120
127
106
2000-04
136
134
99
128
142
111
131
135
104
2005-09
191
223
116
139
165
118
153
153
100
BARI and UIU
4 July 2013
Time
period
Pulses
1990-1994
1995-1999
2000-2004
2005-2009
Bangladesh
Area Prodn Yield Area
India
Pakistan
Prodn Yield Area Prodn Yield
100
91
64
41
100
94
68
49
100
104
106
118
100
98
91
98
100
109
100
108
100
111
111
110
100
99
87
91
100
117
97
113
100
119
112
125
100
98
73
68
100
102
80
83
100
104
111
122
100
106
97
112
100
110
99
133
100
103
101
118
100
111
112
118
100
112
134
153
100
101
119
130
100
101
107
137
100
103
119
258
100
101
110
187
100
114
101
101
100
118
131
155
100
106
134
156
100
106
112
233
100
115
120
128
100
110
117
156
Oilseeds
1990-1994
1995-1999
2000-2004
2005-2009
Spices
1990-1994
1995-1999
2000-2004
2005-2009
BARI and UIU
4 July 2013
Time period
Bangladesh
Production Yield
Poultry meat
1990-1994
1995-1999
2000-2004
2005-2009
India
Production
Yield
Pakistan
Production Yield
100
110
144
190
100
96
96
96
100
116
175
293
100
100
117
132
100
158
170
257
100
89
96
99
100
123
140
168
100
109
114
115
100
104
106
116
100
101
102
102
100
101
110
134
100
104
103
103
100
121
132
168
100
94
93
88
100
126
150
183
100
118
128
147
100
140
166
197
100
113
124
134
100
168
217
263
100
100
102
99
100
124
175
231
100
107
106
118
100
121
154
200
100
101
98
98
Beef
1990-1994
1995-1999
2000-2004
2005-2009
Milk
1990-1994
1995-1999
2000-2004
2005-2009
Egg
1990-1994
1995-1999
2000-2004
2005-2009
BARI and UIU
4 July 2013
DIVERSIFICATION IN FOOD
CONSUMPTION
BARI and UIU
4 July 2013
Food items
Rice and wheat
Maize (feed)
Pulses
Edible oils
Sugar
Meat (beef & mutton)
Milk & milk products
Egg
Fish
Onion
Chili
Garlic
Turmeric
Ginger
Potato
Brinjal
Cabbage
Cauliflower
Bitter gourd
Pointed gourd
Okra
Tomato
Radish
Mango
Banana
Jackfruit
Pineapple
Papaya
BARI and UIU
1990-1994
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
1995-1999
96
79
85
95
109
131
133
120
458
72
106
91
93
75
123
114
131
102
101
126
120
92
100
91
89
95
88
116
2000-2004
117
2502
78
44
124
200
120
270
718
81
200
102
104
93
216
173
139
107
100
165
142
103
99
99
86
92
92
113
2005-2009
123
21122
61
NA
273
294
126
599
896
315
205
274
217
128
324
146
204
165
120
259
225
126
88
330
113
339
123
282
4 July 2013
BARI and UIU
Eggs
2010
Meat
2005
Milk
Fish
Fruits
Potato
Vegetab
les
2000
Cereals
intake (gm/day)
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
4 July 2013
Food item
Rice
Wheat
Potato
Pulses
Vegetables
Edible oil
Onion
Beef
Mutton
Chicken/duck
Eggs
Fish
Milk
Fruits
Sugar/Gur
Outside intake
Miscellaneous
Total
BARI and UIU
N
416.0
26.09
70.52
14.30
166.1
20.51
21.89
6.84
0.60
11.22
7.25
49.41
33.72
44.80
8.50
29.38
72.42
1000
2010
R
441.6
23.38
71.74
13.23
170.0
18.28
19.90
4.77
0.55
9.01
5.80
45.67
31.78
42.73
7.48
28.00
71.24
1005
U
344.2
33.69
67.08
17.30
154.9
26.74
27.46
12.63
0.89
17.42
11.32
59.91
39.16
50.59
11.37
34.97
75.81
986
N
439.6
12.08
63.30
14.19
157.0
16.45
18.37
7.78
0.59
6.85
5.15
42.14
32.40
32.54
8.08
24.76
48.38
948
2005
R
459.7
7.99
61.93
12.74
156.5
14.33
16.11
6.41
0.57
6.11
4.41
39.70
31.03
32.42
7.54
23.73
67.01
946
U
378.5
24.52
67.48
18.63
158.7
22.92
25.26
11.97
0.66
10.63
7.41
49.57
36.55
32.90
9.73
27.90
68.63
952
N
458.5
17.24
55.45
15.77
140.5
12.82
15.41
8.30
0.49
4.50
5.27
38.45
29.71
28.35
6.85
-55.44
920
2000
R
U
478.8 372.7
14.00 30.12
54.71 58.83
14.97 91.04
141.1 137.9
11.24 19.11
14.08 20.72
6.87 13.98
0.43
0.71
3.54
8.41
4.61
7.89
37.83 40.89
28.99 32.59
26.53 35.63
6.37
8.78
--54.58 54.86
899
862
4 July 2013
Food item
Rice
Wheat
Potato
Pulses
Vegetables
Edible oil
Onion
Beef
Mutton
Chicken/duck
Eggs
Fish
Milk and milk products
Fruits
Sugar/Gur
Food taken outside
Miscellaneous
Total
(% higher over poor household)
BARI and UIU
Poor
406.19
20.36
63.44
10.15
141.80
14.20
15.69
1.55
0.11
4.11
3.40
31.16
12.18
20.46
3.32
17.70
50.28
816.00
Non-poor
420.15 (3.3)
28.73 (29.1)
73.78 (14.0)
16.22 (37.4)
177.25 (20.0)
23.41 (39.3)
24.74 (36.6)
9.27 (83.3)
0.83 (86.7)
15.09 (72.8)
9.02 (62.3)
57.81 (46.1)
43.63 (72.1)
56.00 (63.5)
10.88 (69.5)
35.41 (50.0)
81.81 (38.5)
1085.0 (24.8)
Both category
416.01
26.09
70.52
14.30
166.08
20.51
21.89
6.84
0.60
11.22
7.25
49.41
33.72
44.80
8.50
29.83
72.42
1000
4 July 2013
Farmers’
category
HIES: 2000
Marginal
Small
Medium
Large
HIES: 2005
Marginal
Small
Medium
Large
HIES: 2010
Marginal
Small
Medium
Large
Cereals
Fish
Pulses
Meat
Fruits
Vegetables
Edible oil
Milk
367.83
538.33
571.33
652.00
27.00
40.67
41.67
45.67
11.08
15.67
15.33
17.67
11.58
18.67
20.33
26.33
17.75
30.33
34.33
36.67
146.50
199.33
208.67
235.33
8.08
11.33
11.67
14.00
19.00
43.33
47.33
59.67
468.58
536.00
558.00
631.00
37.25
44.33
50.00
58.67
12.17
13.33
14.33
15.67
15.08
24.33
26.00
30.33
29.58
37.33
49.33
58.00
218.00
235.00
245.67
260.33
14.08
15.33
16.00
18.33
22.17
44.67
58.00
75.67
285.25
322.33
346.00
491.67
24.67
28.00
34.00
53.67
7.42
7.67
8.33
9.67
9.75
15.33
15.00
32.00
29.83
42.33
50.33
108.33
149.83
162.33
178.00
265.33
10.75
11.00
11.67
15.67
15.25
27.00
33.00
48.33
BARI and UIU
4 July 2013
Major findings:
1.The overall consumption of non-poor people was 24.5%
higher than that of poor people.
2.The PCC of livestock products, fruits and fish of non-poor
households were much higher (46-87%) than that of poor
people.
3.The consumption differences were found less in rice,
potato, and vegetables between two groups.
BARI and UIU
4 July 2013
Major findings:
1.The PCC of most food items except fruits has decreased to a
large extent for marginal, small and medium category farmers
in 2010 compared to 2000 and 2005.
2.For large farmers, the PCC of fish, meat, fruits, and edible oils
has considerably increased and cereals, pulses and milk have
decreased in 2010. Cereal consumption shows declining trend
but it is still much higher than both national and desired levels.
3.Substantial gap remains in the consumption of quality food
items (fish, meat, fruits & oils) between large farmer and other
categories of farmers.
BARI and UIU
4 July 2013
Major findings:
1.The PCC of major food items for diversified farmers was higher than
non-diversified farmers. It was found highest for meat (14.5%)
followed by pulses (11.3%), fish (10.4%), edible oil (10.3%), and fruits
(6.7%)..Only the PCC of cereals and milk was 11.1 and 14.7% lower
for diversified farmers compared to non-diversified farmers
respectively. .
2.Substantial gap remains in the consumption of quality food items
(meat, fish, edible oils & pulses) between diversified and nondiversified farmers.
3.Although the level of consumption of diversified farmers is much
higher compared to non-diversified farmers, but the consumption
level is not balanced at all.
BARI and UIU
4 July 2013
Consumption (gm/capita/day)
500
450
444
417
The level of consumption
of vegetables, pulses, and
fish is much higher for highincome group compared to
low-income group.
400
350
282
300
250
206
200
150
100
75
50
10 20
25
0
Cereals
Vegetables
Bottom 20%
BARI and UIU
Pulses
Therefore, the balanced
consumption of different
food items remains an issue
for
the
low-income
households.
Fish
Top 20%
4 July 2013
70
% Share
60
50
56
51
55
48
40
48
44
49
41
46
30
20
10
Rural
HIES_2000
BARI and UIU
Urban
HIES_2005
 The share of cereal
consumption to total
food consumption
has decreased over
the time at rural,
urban and national
levels.
National
HIES_2010
4 July 2013
% Share
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
39
29
23
32 33
25
Rural
HIES_2000
BARI and UIU
Urban
HIES_2005
 The share of calorie
intake from non31
cereal foods has
27
increased over the
25
time at rural, urban
and national levels.
National
HIES_2010
4 July 2013
DIVERSIFICATION IN
AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION
BARI and UIU
4 July 2013
0.7
0.66
ADI
0.65
0.6
Y = 0.521 + 0.0043X
R2 = 0.3666
0.58
0.55
0.52
0.5
0.45
1. The overall agricultural diversity is increasing with fluctuating nature.
2. A sharp increase that took place in 2007 which was due to the combined effect of sharp
increase in the productions and prices of some vegetables, spices, fruits, and fishes.
BARI and UIU
4 July 2013
ADI
0.8
0.75
0.7
0.65
0.6
0.55
0.5
0.45
0.4
0.35
0.3
Barisal
Chittagong
Sylhet
Dhaka
Khulna
Rajshahi
Rangpur
1. The highest AD took place at Chittagong and Barisal region over the time due to the increase of the
productions and prices of some non-cereal commodities.
2. The lowest AD took place at Rangpur and Rajshahi region. Its implying a wide scope for diversifying agriculture
through introducing high value crops and non-crop commodity to the existing agricultural farming in future.
BARI and UIU
4 July 2013
0.9
0.756
Level of ADI
0.8
0.7
0.581
0.573
 In 2010, the ADI
of Pakistan was
much higher than
BD & India.
 The ADI of BD
was little bit higher
in that period.
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
Bangladesh
BARI and UIU
India
Pakistan
4 July 2013
Marginal effect of different variables included in the probit model
Standard
Irrigated land (X1)
Land suitability (X2)
Training received (X3)
Extension linkage (X4)
Family influence in production (X5)
Credit facility (X6)
Storage facility (X7)
Access to market (X8)
dy/dx
0.0001
0.016
0.009
0.004
0.025
0.013
0.003
-0.007
Error
0.000
0.012
0.003
0.001
0.006
0.007
0.007
0.005
Probability
t-stat
2.300
1.290
3.170
3.360
4.480
1.810
0.530
-1.370
(P>|z|)
0.021
0.198
0.002
0.001
0.000
0.070
0.597
0.170
Dependent variable = ADI (0 to 1)
BARI and UIU
4 July 2013
Explanatory
variables
Constant
Real wage rate (X1)
Real wage rate square
(X2)
Per capita road length
(X3)
Per capita road length
square (X4)
Rainfall (X5)
Agricultural credit
disbursement (X6)
Population (X7)
BARI and UIU
Coefficients
Standard
Probability Mar. Effects
Error
z-stat (P>|z|)
(@ mean)
0.090
6.370**
0.1912
3.1661
0.47
2.01
0.636
0.044
-32.878**
14.036
-2.34
0.019
133.380
2.51
0.012
272.9506**
-128767.00** 64642.37
0.00002***
0.0000094
-1.99
2.58
0.046
0.010
0.00002***
0.000001***
3.05
0.002
0.000001***
1.81
0.071
0.00000002*
334.836**
0.00000002*
0.0000005
0.0000000
11
-0.7650260**
4 July 2013
DIVERSIFICATION IN
AGRICULTURAL TRADE
BARI and UIU
4 July 2013
Ratio of net import of cereal trade /
Total agricultual trade
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
-0.1
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
-0.2
-0.3
-0.4
Bangladesh
Pakistan
India
Linear (Bangladesh)
Note: +ve sign represents net import and –ve sign represents net export
BARI and UIU
4 July 2013
Bangladesh
India
2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
Ratio of net import of
non-cereal trade/
Total agricultural trae
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
-0.2
-0.4
-0.6
Pakistan
Note: +(ve) sign represents net import and –(ve) sign represents net export
BARI and UIU
4 July 2013
2000
Figure 9.2 Balance of food trade, 1990-2009
Value (million USD)
0
-2000
-4000
-6000
-8000
Bangladesh
India
Pakistan
Note: +(ve) sign represents net import and –(ve) sign represents net export
BARI and UIU
4 July 2013
Constraints
Lack of suitable land/land far away
Lack of sufficient capital
Scarcity of labour and its higher price
Higher cost of production
Lack of fair price of the produces
Lack of training facility
Infestation of insects and diseases
Higher price of fertilizers
Required higher labour
Lack of HYV seed/seedling/check
Lack of short duration crop
High risk in production (bird flu, etc)
Lack of irrigation facility
Higher price of seed/seedling/feed/cheek/fingerling
Natural calamities (drought, rainfall, storm, fog)
Lack of credit facility
Lack of transport facility
Load shading of electricity
BARI and UIU
Respondent
(N = 360)
163
159
95
89
63
33
32
30
29
26
14
14
12
11
6
5
5
4
% of
responses
45.3
44.2
26.4
24.7
17.5
9.2
8.9
8.3
8.1
7.2
3.9
3.9
3.3
3.1
1.7
1.4
1.4
1.1
4 July 2013
Results
There is a positive and significant relationship
between extension linkage of farmers and
agricultural diversification (see probit model,
Table 8.6).
There is a positive and significant relationship
between agricultural credit disbursement and
agricultural diversification both at national and
household level (see probit model, Table 8.7 and
GLS model, Table 8.8).
BARI and UIU
Recommendations
Reorganizing the Department of Agricultural Extension (DAE):
There shall be a change in the institution of extension services in
Bangladesh. Farmers with more extension contacts are found to be
more diversified than others and so it is important that the DAE needs
to reorganize itself to ensure more contacts. DAE also needs to reorient its extension workers to support growing extension needs for
non-cereal agricultural products like spices, fruits, vegetables, poultry,
fisheries and livestock.
Facilitate agricultural credit to farmers: An agricultural credit is an
important factor for diversification of agriculture. Farmers with access
to credit facilities are found to be more diversified than others. This is
an important finding of this study. This means credit facilities need to
be extended to farmers. The current government, for the first time,
ensured that farmers have a bank account in a bank in order to
facilitate payment of subsidy to them. While the endeavor is a great
one its outreach is very limited. In addition, farmers do not receive
banking services like other normal customers of the bank. This limits
their ability to use banks as the right tool to do transactions. Given the
access to mobile networks, government should extend BKASH or
mobile banking services to farmers to access credits.
4 July 2013
There is a positive and significant
relationship between per capita road
length of a district and agricultural
diversification at national level. It
means that a district with better
communication and transportation
facilities are more diversified than other
regions. (see GLS model, Table 8.8).
BARI and UIU
Investment in transportation networks: Access to
market is found to be less important at the farmers’ level
but it is important for increasing diversity in agriculture
regionally. This means, a district with better
communication and transportation facilities are more
diversified than other regions. Most of the non-cereal
produces are perishable items and so means of
transportation and access to the market is important for
them. Ironically, storage at the local level was not found
to be an important variable. This is due to the fact that
when access to roads is ensured, storage facilities
become less important and it can be provided through
private investment. Therefore, investments in public
transportation of vegetables, fruits, etc. are important
elements to promote agricultural diversification.
4 July 2013
There is a positive and significant
relationship
between
training
received
and
agricultural
diversification at household level (see
probit model, Table 8.6 & 8.7).
BARI and UIU
Training for farmers: Modern agricultural is much
more challenging than before. There are elements of
production, processing, storage and transportation
and in all of them training is an important precondition for ensure higher profit to a farmer.
Training includes: a) training in production
technologies, b) training in harvesting technologies,
c) training in processing and storages, and d) training
in packaging for transportation. To promote noncereal diversification in agriculture, DAE should
organize itself to ensure farmers’ level training
programs – or farmers’ summer school instead of
concentrating only on IPM technologies.
4 July 2013
There is a positive and significant
relationship between irrigated land and
agricultural diversification at household
level (see probit model, Table 8.6 & 8.7).
BARI and UIU
Irrigation infrastructure for non-cereal producing
farmers: In the 1970s investment in irrigation
infrastructure lead to green revolution in terms of cereal
production. Trends in demand suggest that demand for
fruits, vegetables, spices, edible oil, meat and fish are on
the rise both for poor and non-poor households. This means
a new generation of investment in irrigation technology
which will meet needs of the future non-cereal farming
population. This means switching towards drip-irrigation,
piped-irrigation, instead of promoting the current flood
irrigation techniques.
Access to better irrigation technology will not only reduce
water requirement for agriculture, it will also allow farmers
to choose crops other than rice and wheat. The new
generation irrigation technology should be less labor
intensive.
4 July 2013
There is a negative and significant relationship
between access to market and agricultural
diversification at household level. It implies that
the probability of agricultural diversification
decreases with decrease of access to market (see
probit model, Table 8.6 & 8.7).
BARI and UIU
Promoting better access to market: Maize production has been
growing at a very fast rate in Bangladesh and it is mainly due to
ready market for its output. This is due to the fact that poultry
producers are many and spread-out throughout the country. The
market is not manipulated, or influenced by non-market forces. As a
result farmers enjoy higher profitability. Similarly it is true for fruits
and vegetable markets. It is therefore, important that government
regulation towards market shall be limited to incentives.
At the same time, each layer of the market-chain should be free from
manipulation by their agents and so access to markets by the farmers
through ‘farmers market’, village hut, be ensured. Once the direct
entry into the market is cut-off through regulation of market players
like who can enter in a market and who cannot often reduces
profitability. Therefore, farmers should be given an inherent right to
sell their products directly to the customers and for this government
should develop markets only for them at a local level. The concept of
‘village hut’ that used to run twice a week could be introduced in all
small townships where sellers must be a farmer.
4 July 2013
Risk reduction strategy: Price uncertainties in input
Problems/Risk in producing
diversified products are shown in and output are a potential threat against farmers
moving out of cereal crops. These uncertainties shall
Table 10.1 and 10.2.
be dealt with. There are several strategies for this: a)
certification of products and seeds; b) quality
assurance of inputs; c) development of liability rules
for failures due to low quality input; d) government
procurement rule with known principle of price; and
e) supply of credits with reduced interest or other
inputs at reduced prices. Government should analyze
these policies and develop a comprehensive strategy
to induce diversification of agriculture.
FOR livestock and poultry – it means increasing
ability to fight diseases. Availability of feed and
establishment of proper marketing chains.
BARI and UIU
4 July 2013
Institutional reforms: AD means both crop and
Constraints to diversified
products production are shown non-crop agricultural production. At the moment
the DAE is completely separate from other
in Table 10.2.
departments like livestock, fisheries and poultry
extension services. All these services are not
equally accessible in every region of the country.
As such agricultural diversity cannot speed up.
Farmers need a one stop service for all. This
requires a complete re-thinking of our current
DAE.
BARI and UIU
4 July 2013
Constraints to diversified products Development of new technologies: Most farmers cannot
production and facility demanded harvest the benefit of diversification due to low yield of
diversified commodities which is the result of cultivating
are shown in Table 10.2 and 10.3.
local cultivar of these commodities. In order to promote
the diversification with diversified commodities,
investment should be directed to reduce yield fluctuation
by developing improved technologies including new
variety, off-season variety, stress-tolerant and resistant
varieties of these crops. The national agricultural research
institutes should make efforts to develop improved
varieties and production systems with comparative
advantage, of fruits, vegetables, spices, livestock, poultry
and fish to open up new opportunities for farmers.
BARI and UIU
4 July 2013
Constraints
to
diversified
products production and facility
demanded are shown in Table
10.2 and 10.3.
BARI and UIU
Encourage farm mechanization: The shortage of
farm labourer is currently a common phenomenon
in agriculture due to the expansion of non-farm
employment opportunities with higher wage
throughout the country. It creates various problems
in the process of production and marketing of
diversified crops. Therefore, farm mechanization
should be encouraged in various agricultural
activities for combating the impending labour
shortages, minimizing the cost of production,
reducing the turn over period of cultivation,
augmenting farmers’ income, and conserving
natural resources.
4 July 2013
NFPCSP-FAO
David Dawe, Agricultural Economist, FAO
Mr. Ciro Fiorillo, CTA, NFPCSP-FAO
Dr. Shahin Iaqukb, TAT member, NFPCSP-FAO
Dr. Shahe Alam, TAT member, NFPCSP-FAO
BARI authority
BARI and UIU
4 July 2013
THANKS TO ALL
FOR LISTENING
BARI and UIU
4 July 2013