ToR # 06 POLICY OPTIONS FOR SUPPORTING AGRICULTURAL DIVERSIFICATION IN BANGLADESH IMPLEMENTING INSTITUTION Bangladesh Agricultural Research Institute (BARI) United International University (UIU) BARI and UIU 4 July 2013 NAME ADDRESS 1. M. A. MONAYEM MIAH PI & SSO, AED, BARI 2. A. K. ENAMUL HAQUE CPI & PROF, UIU, DHAKA 3. SAHADAT HOSSAIN CI & CSO, AED, BARI 4. TANVIR M. B. HOSSAIN CI & SSO, AED, BARI 5. MD. SADIQUE RAHMAN CI & Asst. Prof., SAU 6. MD. SAMSUL HAQ Res. Asst., AED, BARI BARI and UIU 4 July 2013 Definition of agricultural diversification Rationale of the study Methodology Profitability and comparative advantage of major commodities Growth performance of major crops Diversification in food consumption, agril. production, agril. trade Constraints to agricultural diversification Conclusion and Recommendations BARI and UIU 4 July 2013 Agricultural diversification implies a shift of resources from primary staple crop, namely rice and wheat to other non-cereal crops, and/or to live-stock, poultry, fisheries & forestry. It has been used around the world as a strategy to minimize risk, minimize income variability over seasons, optimize the use of land and other resources, change the food habit, increase protein intake, improve food security, promote exports, substitute imports, conserve natural resources, create employment opportunities and alleviate poverty for the farming households. BARI and UIU 4 July 2013 Agriculture is an important sector of the economy of Bangladesh. It comprises crop, livestock, fisheries and forestry sub-sectors accounting for 55.7%, 13.24%, 22.37% and 8.68% of agricultural GDP respectively. AD towards products with higher value-added contributed to more rapid agricultural income growth and might contribute to local employment creation by stimulating small farmers’ participation in the market. Diversification in production is also likely to lead to diversification in consumption, which is required for healthier and more balanced diets. BARI and UIU 4 July 2013 Consumption pattern has been changed from cereal to non-cereal food in the last 3 decades. - Expenditure on cereals decreased 28.87% to 28.41% in urban areas and 41.23% to 39.62% in rural areas between 2000 and 2010. Overall demand for fruits, vegetables, dairy products, fish, fats & edible oils have been increased. - Expen. on fruits rose from 4.10% to 5.29% and from 2.59% to 3.49% in urban and rural areas. - Expen. on fish, meat & eggs and spices rose at national level from 12.48% to 13.71%; 8.02% to 10.31% and 7.13% to 9.99%. BARI and UIU 4 July 2013 The prices of fruits, vegetables, fish and other non-cereal products have also been increased significantly. Imports of non-cereal food commodities have also been increased to a large extent. Yet progress in agricultural diversification is not very encouraging. Therefore, policy formulation is essential for diversifying our agriculture to enhance the production of non-cereal crops and non-crop commodities. BARI and UIU 4 July 2013 1. To assist policy makers in identifying policy interventions that will allow agricultural households to diversify their agricultural production into micro-nutrient rich foods and/or those with a strong income generating potential. 2. To examine the past trends of diversification of crop and non-crop agriculture, and compare the rates of growth to those in neighboring countries to gain some perspective on how rapid (or slow) growth in Bangladesh has been. 3. To examine the socioeconomic and agro-climatic determinants of and constraints to agril. diversification. BARI and UIU 4 July 2013 What are the past trends of acreage and production of major food commodities and to what extent they differ from the trends of neighbouring countries like India and Pakistan? What are the changes in the consumption of different food commodities and how they are related to domestic food production? What changes have been taken place in financial and economic profitability of different food commodities over time and how they affect their production? What are the constraints to and opportunities for agricultural diversification in Bangladesh? What are the determinants of agricultural diversification in Bangladesh? BARI and UIU 4 July 2013 Primary Survey on Farm Households Examine the determinants of agril. diversification. Explore the constraints and opportunities to AD. Analysis of secondary data/study results Financial and economic profitability over time. Trend and growth rate in domestic production. Diversification in consumption, agril. production, and agricultural trade. Data Sources Primary data- Field survey Secondary data- Res. reports, thesis, j. articles, HIES, BBS, and FAOstat BARI and UIU 4 July 2013 Sl. 12 Surplus No district 1. Dinajpur 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. Rangpur Bogra Pabna Jessore Kustia Mymensingh Tangail Faridpur Gazipur Chittagong Rangamati Total BARI and UIU Selected 10 diversified Sample crops households Garlic, Maize, Pointed gourd, Potato 120 Maize, Banana 60 Potato 30 Onion 30 Okra, Pointed gourd, Culture fish 90 Banana, Okra 60 Culture fish 30 Pineapple 30 Onion, Garlic 60 Poultry 30 Poultry 30 Pineapple 30 600 Control group Total sample 30 30 30 30 150 90 60 60 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 360 120 90 60 60 90 60 60 60 960 4 July 2013 PRESENTATION OF RESULTS BARI and UIU 4 July 2013 PROFITABILITY AND COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGE OF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIONS BARI and UIU 4 July 2013 1.90 1.70 BCR 1.50 1.30 1.10 0.90 0.70 0.50 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Aus BARI and UIU Aman Boro 4 July 2013 BCR 3 2.8 2.6 2.4 2.2 2 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 BARI and UIU 4 July 2013 BCR 3 2.8 2.6 2.4 2.2 2 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1 2006 BARI and UIU 2007 2008 2009 2010 4 July 2013 4.50 4.00 3.50 BCR 3.00 2.50 2.00 1.50 1.00 0.50 BARI and UIU 4 July 2013 BCR 6.00 5.50 5.00 4.50 4.00 3.50 3.00 2.50 2.00 Orange BARI and UIU Mango Pineapple Guava 4 July 2013 Carp fish 6.00 Rice-fish Shrimp 5.00 Carp fish Pond fish 4.00 Pangas 3.00 Koi fish 2.00 Dairy cow Goat 1.00 0.00 Cow fatenning Layer hen Broiler Orange Mango Pineapple Guava Ginger Garlic BARI and UIU Aus Boro Aman Wheat Lentil Chickpea Potato Jute Maize Mungbean Blackgram Groundnut Sesame Onion Mustard Soybean ChiliTurmeric 1. The productions of all crops and non-crops enterprises are profitable 2. The profitability of noncereal crop production is higher than cereal crop production. 3. Perennial fruit prod. are the best and livestock & poultry are the least profitable agricultural commodities. 4 July 2013 DRC 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 0.822 DRC Fine Rice 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 0.568 0.561 0.406 0.433 Aromatic Rice Coarse Rice 0.429 Wheat Maize 0.48 0.16 0.17 0.17 0.31 0.25 0.27 0.55 Lentil 0.6 0.63 The values of DRCs for cereal, lentil and vegetables are less than unity. It implies that BD has comparative advantage in producing these crops for import substitutions and export promotion. 0.37 Source: Rashid et al.2009 Karim et al. 2011 BARI and UIU 4 July 2013 Growth in Production, Acreage and Yield and their decomposition Comparative Analysis of Bangladesh performance with India and Pakistan BARI and UIU 4 July 2013 Time period Area (ac) Barisal Chittagong Dhaka Khulna Rajshahi Sylhet Rangpur 1990-1994 100 (2437692) 100 (4114112) 100 (6219832) 100 (3168043) 100 (3496853) 100 (2133824) 100 (3683137) 1995-1999 2000-2004 2005-2009 97 104 105 96 100 92 99 107 99 95 104 106 101 115 120 106 101 96 96 104 109 100 (1291896 87 130 135 100 (3149820) 99 126 124 100 (4390888) 104 144 158 100 (2286037) 104 143 162 100 (2879079) 105 144 175 100 (1316327) 116 138 148 100 (2755517) 101 129 162 100 (0.53) 90 125 129 100 (0.76) 103 125 135 100 (0.71) 105 135 159 100 (0.72) 109 137 153 100 (0.82) 104 124 145 100 (0.62) 109 137 154 100 (0.75) 105 124 148 Production (mt) 1990-1994 1995-1999 2000-2004 2005-2009 Yield (t/ac) 1990-1994 1995-1999 2000-2004 2005-2009 BARI and UIU 4 July 2013 Time period Chittagong Dhaka Khulna Rajshahi Rangpur 100 (5644) 79 112 264 100 (454) 50 1642 5947 100 (112) 216 15150 63435 100 (891) 54 1199 7316 100 (327) 213 3392 46100 100 (2292) 80 136 924 100(182) 61 5602 29148 100(79) 206 48652 199123 100(272) 64 6988 59281 100(104) 252 15967 381689 100 (0.41) 101 119 345 100 (0.42) 118 299 470 100 (0.69) 96 235 314 100 (0.3) 119 392 804 100 (0.63) 116 402 814 Area (acre) 1990-1994 1995-1999 2000-2004 2005-2009 Production (mt) 1990-1994 1995-1999 2000-2004 2005-2009 Yield (t/acre) 1990-1994 1995-1999 2000-2004 2005-2009 BARI and UIU 4 July 2013 Time period Area (ac) Barisal Chittagong Dhaka Khulna Rajshahi Sylhet Rangpur 1990-1994 100 (9942) 52 37 25 100 (11689) 97 105 99 100 (115027) 96 95 75 100 (97844) 98 86 68 100 (138265) 99 95 96 100 (3967) 104 109 103 100 (79020) 90 84 76 100 (120832) 48 27 13 100 (158014) 92 89 71 100 (1665009) 93 94 66 100 (1748354) 160 97 66 100 (2403417) 97 93 102 100 (32869) 101 106 47 100 (1305734) 96 76 64 100 (12.21) 90 72 49 100 (13.58) 94 84 72 100 (14.54) 96 99 87 100 (17.87) 164 112 97 100 (17.38) 99 98 105 100 (8.27) 97 98 45 100 (33.95) 107 93 86 1995-1999 2000-2004 2005-2009 Production(mt) 1990-1994 1995-1999 2000-2004 2005-2009 Yield (t/ac) 1990-1994 1995-1999 2000-2004 2005-2009 BARI and UIU 4 July 2013 BARI and UIU 4 July 2013 Crop Effect Yield Area Aus Interaction Residual Yield Area Aman Interaction Residual Yield Area Boro Interaction Residual Yield Area Wheat Interaction Residual Yield Area Maize Interaction Residual BARI and UIU Divisions Barisal Chittagong Sylhet Dhaka Khulna Rajshahi Rangpur 114 -8 6 -12 85 25 10 -20 22 83 5 -10 -106 195 -12 23 60 35 -4 9 -3840 3797 -144 288 129 -18 11 -22 58 48 6 -11 -9 118 9 -18 51 56 7 -14 -212 255 -57 114 116 -13 3 -6 88 14 2 -4 -55 140 -15 30 ----- -22 117 -5 9 76 39 15 -30 -174 163 -111 222 -263 338 -25 50 21 100 21 -42 -127 242 15 -31 99 5 4 -9 6 86 -8 16 -2664 413 -2351 4701 41 98 40 -80 233 -98 36 -72 79 18 -3 7 78 15 -7 14 143 -30 13 -26 -56 122 -34 67 -25 222 -1 -96 245 -24 13 -134 63 140 3 -106 671 -721 76 74 -21 254 27 -160 Bangladesh -16 132 16 -32 96 14 9 -19 44 59 3 -5 3544 -3214 230 -460 21 92 13 -26 4 July 2013 Division Effect Yield Area Interaction Residual Baris al 14 84 -1 3 BARI and UIU Chittago Sylh Dhaka Khulna ng et 53 75 39 6 65 185 61 110 18 160 0 15 -37 -320 0 -31 Rajsh Rangpur ahi 20 -292 67 601 -13 683 26 -893 Bangla desh 7 92 -1 3 4 July 2013 Time Bangladesh period Area Prodn Yield Area Rice 1990-94 100 100 100 100 1995-99 101 110 109 103 2000-04 105 139 133 101 2005-09 107 164 152 102 Wheat 1990-94 100 100 100 100 1995-99 124 148 119 108 2000-04 122 150 122 109 2005-09 74 79 108 113 Maize 1990-94 100 100 100 100 1995-99 97 102 108 105 2000-04 865 3763 383 116 2005-09 4347 26366 596 134 BARI and UIU India Pakistan Prodn Yield Area Prodn Yield 100 109 110 122 100 105 108 120 100 111 111 129 100 131 135 178 100 118 121 138 100 121 128 134 100 111 118 119 100 103 102 108 100 115 128 146 100 111 125 136 100 118 144 187 100 113 124 139 100 109 110 118 100 128 160 273 100 118 145 232 4 July 2013 Time period Banana 1990-94 1995-99 2000-04 2005-09 Bangladesh Area Prodn Yield Area India Pakistan Prodn Yield Area Prodn Yield 100 101 114 141 100 98 101 143 100 96 88 102 100 111 122 162 100 149 164 264 100 134 135 163 100 158 188 210 100 109 167 178 100 72 93 89 100 102 103 299 100 103 116 405 100 101 112 135 100 119 147 193 100 113 115 136 100 94 78 70 100 107 117 192 100 115 128 218 100 107 109 114 100 100 106 122 100 98 108 154 100 98 101 127 100 129 132 137 100 121 132 144 100 93 100 105 ----- ----- ----- Mango 1990-94 1995-99 2000-04 2005-09 Pineapple 1990-94 1995-99 2000-04 2005-09 BARI and UIU 4 July 2013 Time period Bangladesh Area Prodn India Yield Area Prodn Pakistan Yield Area Prodn Yield 1990-94 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 1995-99 114 113 99 114 117 103 120 127 106 2000-04 136 134 99 128 142 111 131 135 104 2005-09 191 223 116 139 165 118 153 153 100 BARI and UIU 4 July 2013 Time period Pulses 1990-1994 1995-1999 2000-2004 2005-2009 Bangladesh Area Prodn Yield Area India Pakistan Prodn Yield Area Prodn Yield 100 91 64 41 100 94 68 49 100 104 106 118 100 98 91 98 100 109 100 108 100 111 111 110 100 99 87 91 100 117 97 113 100 119 112 125 100 98 73 68 100 102 80 83 100 104 111 122 100 106 97 112 100 110 99 133 100 103 101 118 100 111 112 118 100 112 134 153 100 101 119 130 100 101 107 137 100 103 119 258 100 101 110 187 100 114 101 101 100 118 131 155 100 106 134 156 100 106 112 233 100 115 120 128 100 110 117 156 Oilseeds 1990-1994 1995-1999 2000-2004 2005-2009 Spices 1990-1994 1995-1999 2000-2004 2005-2009 BARI and UIU 4 July 2013 Time period Bangladesh Production Yield Poultry meat 1990-1994 1995-1999 2000-2004 2005-2009 India Production Yield Pakistan Production Yield 100 110 144 190 100 96 96 96 100 116 175 293 100 100 117 132 100 158 170 257 100 89 96 99 100 123 140 168 100 109 114 115 100 104 106 116 100 101 102 102 100 101 110 134 100 104 103 103 100 121 132 168 100 94 93 88 100 126 150 183 100 118 128 147 100 140 166 197 100 113 124 134 100 168 217 263 100 100 102 99 100 124 175 231 100 107 106 118 100 121 154 200 100 101 98 98 Beef 1990-1994 1995-1999 2000-2004 2005-2009 Milk 1990-1994 1995-1999 2000-2004 2005-2009 Egg 1990-1994 1995-1999 2000-2004 2005-2009 BARI and UIU 4 July 2013 DIVERSIFICATION IN FOOD CONSUMPTION BARI and UIU 4 July 2013 Food items Rice and wheat Maize (feed) Pulses Edible oils Sugar Meat (beef & mutton) Milk & milk products Egg Fish Onion Chili Garlic Turmeric Ginger Potato Brinjal Cabbage Cauliflower Bitter gourd Pointed gourd Okra Tomato Radish Mango Banana Jackfruit Pineapple Papaya BARI and UIU 1990-1994 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 1995-1999 96 79 85 95 109 131 133 120 458 72 106 91 93 75 123 114 131 102 101 126 120 92 100 91 89 95 88 116 2000-2004 117 2502 78 44 124 200 120 270 718 81 200 102 104 93 216 173 139 107 100 165 142 103 99 99 86 92 92 113 2005-2009 123 21122 61 NA 273 294 126 599 896 315 205 274 217 128 324 146 204 165 120 259 225 126 88 330 113 339 123 282 4 July 2013 BARI and UIU Eggs 2010 Meat 2005 Milk Fish Fruits Potato Vegetab les 2000 Cereals intake (gm/day) 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 4 July 2013 Food item Rice Wheat Potato Pulses Vegetables Edible oil Onion Beef Mutton Chicken/duck Eggs Fish Milk Fruits Sugar/Gur Outside intake Miscellaneous Total BARI and UIU N 416.0 26.09 70.52 14.30 166.1 20.51 21.89 6.84 0.60 11.22 7.25 49.41 33.72 44.80 8.50 29.38 72.42 1000 2010 R 441.6 23.38 71.74 13.23 170.0 18.28 19.90 4.77 0.55 9.01 5.80 45.67 31.78 42.73 7.48 28.00 71.24 1005 U 344.2 33.69 67.08 17.30 154.9 26.74 27.46 12.63 0.89 17.42 11.32 59.91 39.16 50.59 11.37 34.97 75.81 986 N 439.6 12.08 63.30 14.19 157.0 16.45 18.37 7.78 0.59 6.85 5.15 42.14 32.40 32.54 8.08 24.76 48.38 948 2005 R 459.7 7.99 61.93 12.74 156.5 14.33 16.11 6.41 0.57 6.11 4.41 39.70 31.03 32.42 7.54 23.73 67.01 946 U 378.5 24.52 67.48 18.63 158.7 22.92 25.26 11.97 0.66 10.63 7.41 49.57 36.55 32.90 9.73 27.90 68.63 952 N 458.5 17.24 55.45 15.77 140.5 12.82 15.41 8.30 0.49 4.50 5.27 38.45 29.71 28.35 6.85 -55.44 920 2000 R U 478.8 372.7 14.00 30.12 54.71 58.83 14.97 91.04 141.1 137.9 11.24 19.11 14.08 20.72 6.87 13.98 0.43 0.71 3.54 8.41 4.61 7.89 37.83 40.89 28.99 32.59 26.53 35.63 6.37 8.78 --54.58 54.86 899 862 4 July 2013 Food item Rice Wheat Potato Pulses Vegetables Edible oil Onion Beef Mutton Chicken/duck Eggs Fish Milk and milk products Fruits Sugar/Gur Food taken outside Miscellaneous Total (% higher over poor household) BARI and UIU Poor 406.19 20.36 63.44 10.15 141.80 14.20 15.69 1.55 0.11 4.11 3.40 31.16 12.18 20.46 3.32 17.70 50.28 816.00 Non-poor 420.15 (3.3) 28.73 (29.1) 73.78 (14.0) 16.22 (37.4) 177.25 (20.0) 23.41 (39.3) 24.74 (36.6) 9.27 (83.3) 0.83 (86.7) 15.09 (72.8) 9.02 (62.3) 57.81 (46.1) 43.63 (72.1) 56.00 (63.5) 10.88 (69.5) 35.41 (50.0) 81.81 (38.5) 1085.0 (24.8) Both category 416.01 26.09 70.52 14.30 166.08 20.51 21.89 6.84 0.60 11.22 7.25 49.41 33.72 44.80 8.50 29.83 72.42 1000 4 July 2013 Farmers’ category HIES: 2000 Marginal Small Medium Large HIES: 2005 Marginal Small Medium Large HIES: 2010 Marginal Small Medium Large Cereals Fish Pulses Meat Fruits Vegetables Edible oil Milk 367.83 538.33 571.33 652.00 27.00 40.67 41.67 45.67 11.08 15.67 15.33 17.67 11.58 18.67 20.33 26.33 17.75 30.33 34.33 36.67 146.50 199.33 208.67 235.33 8.08 11.33 11.67 14.00 19.00 43.33 47.33 59.67 468.58 536.00 558.00 631.00 37.25 44.33 50.00 58.67 12.17 13.33 14.33 15.67 15.08 24.33 26.00 30.33 29.58 37.33 49.33 58.00 218.00 235.00 245.67 260.33 14.08 15.33 16.00 18.33 22.17 44.67 58.00 75.67 285.25 322.33 346.00 491.67 24.67 28.00 34.00 53.67 7.42 7.67 8.33 9.67 9.75 15.33 15.00 32.00 29.83 42.33 50.33 108.33 149.83 162.33 178.00 265.33 10.75 11.00 11.67 15.67 15.25 27.00 33.00 48.33 BARI and UIU 4 July 2013 Major findings: 1.The overall consumption of non-poor people was 24.5% higher than that of poor people. 2.The PCC of livestock products, fruits and fish of non-poor households were much higher (46-87%) than that of poor people. 3.The consumption differences were found less in rice, potato, and vegetables between two groups. BARI and UIU 4 July 2013 Major findings: 1.The PCC of most food items except fruits has decreased to a large extent for marginal, small and medium category farmers in 2010 compared to 2000 and 2005. 2.For large farmers, the PCC of fish, meat, fruits, and edible oils has considerably increased and cereals, pulses and milk have decreased in 2010. Cereal consumption shows declining trend but it is still much higher than both national and desired levels. 3.Substantial gap remains in the consumption of quality food items (fish, meat, fruits & oils) between large farmer and other categories of farmers. BARI and UIU 4 July 2013 Major findings: 1.The PCC of major food items for diversified farmers was higher than non-diversified farmers. It was found highest for meat (14.5%) followed by pulses (11.3%), fish (10.4%), edible oil (10.3%), and fruits (6.7%)..Only the PCC of cereals and milk was 11.1 and 14.7% lower for diversified farmers compared to non-diversified farmers respectively. . 2.Substantial gap remains in the consumption of quality food items (meat, fish, edible oils & pulses) between diversified and nondiversified farmers. 3.Although the level of consumption of diversified farmers is much higher compared to non-diversified farmers, but the consumption level is not balanced at all. BARI and UIU 4 July 2013 Consumption (gm/capita/day) 500 450 444 417 The level of consumption of vegetables, pulses, and fish is much higher for highincome group compared to low-income group. 400 350 282 300 250 206 200 150 100 75 50 10 20 25 0 Cereals Vegetables Bottom 20% BARI and UIU Pulses Therefore, the balanced consumption of different food items remains an issue for the low-income households. Fish Top 20% 4 July 2013 70 % Share 60 50 56 51 55 48 40 48 44 49 41 46 30 20 10 Rural HIES_2000 BARI and UIU Urban HIES_2005 The share of cereal consumption to total food consumption has decreased over the time at rural, urban and national levels. National HIES_2010 4 July 2013 % Share 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 39 29 23 32 33 25 Rural HIES_2000 BARI and UIU Urban HIES_2005 The share of calorie intake from non31 cereal foods has 27 increased over the 25 time at rural, urban and national levels. National HIES_2010 4 July 2013 DIVERSIFICATION IN AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION BARI and UIU 4 July 2013 0.7 0.66 ADI 0.65 0.6 Y = 0.521 + 0.0043X R2 = 0.3666 0.58 0.55 0.52 0.5 0.45 1. The overall agricultural diversity is increasing with fluctuating nature. 2. A sharp increase that took place in 2007 which was due to the combined effect of sharp increase in the productions and prices of some vegetables, spices, fruits, and fishes. BARI and UIU 4 July 2013 ADI 0.8 0.75 0.7 0.65 0.6 0.55 0.5 0.45 0.4 0.35 0.3 Barisal Chittagong Sylhet Dhaka Khulna Rajshahi Rangpur 1. The highest AD took place at Chittagong and Barisal region over the time due to the increase of the productions and prices of some non-cereal commodities. 2. The lowest AD took place at Rangpur and Rajshahi region. Its implying a wide scope for diversifying agriculture through introducing high value crops and non-crop commodity to the existing agricultural farming in future. BARI and UIU 4 July 2013 0.9 0.756 Level of ADI 0.8 0.7 0.581 0.573 In 2010, the ADI of Pakistan was much higher than BD & India. The ADI of BD was little bit higher in that period. 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 Bangladesh BARI and UIU India Pakistan 4 July 2013 Marginal effect of different variables included in the probit model Standard Irrigated land (X1) Land suitability (X2) Training received (X3) Extension linkage (X4) Family influence in production (X5) Credit facility (X6) Storage facility (X7) Access to market (X8) dy/dx 0.0001 0.016 0.009 0.004 0.025 0.013 0.003 -0.007 Error 0.000 0.012 0.003 0.001 0.006 0.007 0.007 0.005 Probability t-stat 2.300 1.290 3.170 3.360 4.480 1.810 0.530 -1.370 (P>|z|) 0.021 0.198 0.002 0.001 0.000 0.070 0.597 0.170 Dependent variable = ADI (0 to 1) BARI and UIU 4 July 2013 Explanatory variables Constant Real wage rate (X1) Real wage rate square (X2) Per capita road length (X3) Per capita road length square (X4) Rainfall (X5) Agricultural credit disbursement (X6) Population (X7) BARI and UIU Coefficients Standard Probability Mar. Effects Error z-stat (P>|z|) (@ mean) 0.090 6.370** 0.1912 3.1661 0.47 2.01 0.636 0.044 -32.878** 14.036 -2.34 0.019 133.380 2.51 0.012 272.9506** -128767.00** 64642.37 0.00002*** 0.0000094 -1.99 2.58 0.046 0.010 0.00002*** 0.000001*** 3.05 0.002 0.000001*** 1.81 0.071 0.00000002* 334.836** 0.00000002* 0.0000005 0.0000000 11 -0.7650260** 4 July 2013 DIVERSIFICATION IN AGRICULTURAL TRADE BARI and UIU 4 July 2013 Ratio of net import of cereal trade / Total agricultual trade 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 -0.1 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 Bangladesh Pakistan India Linear (Bangladesh) Note: +ve sign represents net import and –ve sign represents net export BARI and UIU 4 July 2013 Bangladesh India 2008 2006 2004 2002 2000 1998 1996 1994 1992 1990 Ratio of net import of non-cereal trade/ Total agricultural trae 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.6 Pakistan Note: +(ve) sign represents net import and –(ve) sign represents net export BARI and UIU 4 July 2013 2000 Figure 9.2 Balance of food trade, 1990-2009 Value (million USD) 0 -2000 -4000 -6000 -8000 Bangladesh India Pakistan Note: +(ve) sign represents net import and –(ve) sign represents net export BARI and UIU 4 July 2013 Constraints Lack of suitable land/land far away Lack of sufficient capital Scarcity of labour and its higher price Higher cost of production Lack of fair price of the produces Lack of training facility Infestation of insects and diseases Higher price of fertilizers Required higher labour Lack of HYV seed/seedling/check Lack of short duration crop High risk in production (bird flu, etc) Lack of irrigation facility Higher price of seed/seedling/feed/cheek/fingerling Natural calamities (drought, rainfall, storm, fog) Lack of credit facility Lack of transport facility Load shading of electricity BARI and UIU Respondent (N = 360) 163 159 95 89 63 33 32 30 29 26 14 14 12 11 6 5 5 4 % of responses 45.3 44.2 26.4 24.7 17.5 9.2 8.9 8.3 8.1 7.2 3.9 3.9 3.3 3.1 1.7 1.4 1.4 1.1 4 July 2013 Results There is a positive and significant relationship between extension linkage of farmers and agricultural diversification (see probit model, Table 8.6). There is a positive and significant relationship between agricultural credit disbursement and agricultural diversification both at national and household level (see probit model, Table 8.7 and GLS model, Table 8.8). BARI and UIU Recommendations Reorganizing the Department of Agricultural Extension (DAE): There shall be a change in the institution of extension services in Bangladesh. Farmers with more extension contacts are found to be more diversified than others and so it is important that the DAE needs to reorganize itself to ensure more contacts. DAE also needs to reorient its extension workers to support growing extension needs for non-cereal agricultural products like spices, fruits, vegetables, poultry, fisheries and livestock. Facilitate agricultural credit to farmers: An agricultural credit is an important factor for diversification of agriculture. Farmers with access to credit facilities are found to be more diversified than others. This is an important finding of this study. This means credit facilities need to be extended to farmers. The current government, for the first time, ensured that farmers have a bank account in a bank in order to facilitate payment of subsidy to them. While the endeavor is a great one its outreach is very limited. In addition, farmers do not receive banking services like other normal customers of the bank. This limits their ability to use banks as the right tool to do transactions. Given the access to mobile networks, government should extend BKASH or mobile banking services to farmers to access credits. 4 July 2013 There is a positive and significant relationship between per capita road length of a district and agricultural diversification at national level. It means that a district with better communication and transportation facilities are more diversified than other regions. (see GLS model, Table 8.8). BARI and UIU Investment in transportation networks: Access to market is found to be less important at the farmers’ level but it is important for increasing diversity in agriculture regionally. This means, a district with better communication and transportation facilities are more diversified than other regions. Most of the non-cereal produces are perishable items and so means of transportation and access to the market is important for them. Ironically, storage at the local level was not found to be an important variable. This is due to the fact that when access to roads is ensured, storage facilities become less important and it can be provided through private investment. Therefore, investments in public transportation of vegetables, fruits, etc. are important elements to promote agricultural diversification. 4 July 2013 There is a positive and significant relationship between training received and agricultural diversification at household level (see probit model, Table 8.6 & 8.7). BARI and UIU Training for farmers: Modern agricultural is much more challenging than before. There are elements of production, processing, storage and transportation and in all of them training is an important precondition for ensure higher profit to a farmer. Training includes: a) training in production technologies, b) training in harvesting technologies, c) training in processing and storages, and d) training in packaging for transportation. To promote noncereal diversification in agriculture, DAE should organize itself to ensure farmers’ level training programs – or farmers’ summer school instead of concentrating only on IPM technologies. 4 July 2013 There is a positive and significant relationship between irrigated land and agricultural diversification at household level (see probit model, Table 8.6 & 8.7). BARI and UIU Irrigation infrastructure for non-cereal producing farmers: In the 1970s investment in irrigation infrastructure lead to green revolution in terms of cereal production. Trends in demand suggest that demand for fruits, vegetables, spices, edible oil, meat and fish are on the rise both for poor and non-poor households. This means a new generation of investment in irrigation technology which will meet needs of the future non-cereal farming population. This means switching towards drip-irrigation, piped-irrigation, instead of promoting the current flood irrigation techniques. Access to better irrigation technology will not only reduce water requirement for agriculture, it will also allow farmers to choose crops other than rice and wheat. The new generation irrigation technology should be less labor intensive. 4 July 2013 There is a negative and significant relationship between access to market and agricultural diversification at household level. It implies that the probability of agricultural diversification decreases with decrease of access to market (see probit model, Table 8.6 & 8.7). BARI and UIU Promoting better access to market: Maize production has been growing at a very fast rate in Bangladesh and it is mainly due to ready market for its output. This is due to the fact that poultry producers are many and spread-out throughout the country. The market is not manipulated, or influenced by non-market forces. As a result farmers enjoy higher profitability. Similarly it is true for fruits and vegetable markets. It is therefore, important that government regulation towards market shall be limited to incentives. At the same time, each layer of the market-chain should be free from manipulation by their agents and so access to markets by the farmers through ‘farmers market’, village hut, be ensured. Once the direct entry into the market is cut-off through regulation of market players like who can enter in a market and who cannot often reduces profitability. Therefore, farmers should be given an inherent right to sell their products directly to the customers and for this government should develop markets only for them at a local level. The concept of ‘village hut’ that used to run twice a week could be introduced in all small townships where sellers must be a farmer. 4 July 2013 Risk reduction strategy: Price uncertainties in input Problems/Risk in producing diversified products are shown in and output are a potential threat against farmers moving out of cereal crops. These uncertainties shall Table 10.1 and 10.2. be dealt with. There are several strategies for this: a) certification of products and seeds; b) quality assurance of inputs; c) development of liability rules for failures due to low quality input; d) government procurement rule with known principle of price; and e) supply of credits with reduced interest or other inputs at reduced prices. Government should analyze these policies and develop a comprehensive strategy to induce diversification of agriculture. FOR livestock and poultry – it means increasing ability to fight diseases. Availability of feed and establishment of proper marketing chains. BARI and UIU 4 July 2013 Institutional reforms: AD means both crop and Constraints to diversified products production are shown non-crop agricultural production. At the moment the DAE is completely separate from other in Table 10.2. departments like livestock, fisheries and poultry extension services. All these services are not equally accessible in every region of the country. As such agricultural diversity cannot speed up. Farmers need a one stop service for all. This requires a complete re-thinking of our current DAE. BARI and UIU 4 July 2013 Constraints to diversified products Development of new technologies: Most farmers cannot production and facility demanded harvest the benefit of diversification due to low yield of diversified commodities which is the result of cultivating are shown in Table 10.2 and 10.3. local cultivar of these commodities. In order to promote the diversification with diversified commodities, investment should be directed to reduce yield fluctuation by developing improved technologies including new variety, off-season variety, stress-tolerant and resistant varieties of these crops. The national agricultural research institutes should make efforts to develop improved varieties and production systems with comparative advantage, of fruits, vegetables, spices, livestock, poultry and fish to open up new opportunities for farmers. BARI and UIU 4 July 2013 Constraints to diversified products production and facility demanded are shown in Table 10.2 and 10.3. BARI and UIU Encourage farm mechanization: The shortage of farm labourer is currently a common phenomenon in agriculture due to the expansion of non-farm employment opportunities with higher wage throughout the country. It creates various problems in the process of production and marketing of diversified crops. Therefore, farm mechanization should be encouraged in various agricultural activities for combating the impending labour shortages, minimizing the cost of production, reducing the turn over period of cultivation, augmenting farmers’ income, and conserving natural resources. 4 July 2013 NFPCSP-FAO David Dawe, Agricultural Economist, FAO Mr. Ciro Fiorillo, CTA, NFPCSP-FAO Dr. Shahin Iaqukb, TAT member, NFPCSP-FAO Dr. Shahe Alam, TAT member, NFPCSP-FAO BARI authority BARI and UIU 4 July 2013 THANKS TO ALL FOR LISTENING BARI and UIU 4 July 2013
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