Foreign Workers in Malaysia: Assessment of their Economic Effects and Review of the Policy The World Bank, EASHS KNOMAD Seminar Series June 13th, 2013 The World Bank, East Asia Pacific Region, Human Development Dept. Social Protection & Labor Unit Objective This study aims to help MOHR to better… Manage existing human resources in the country. • Plan for the development of future human capital needs. • Two Interlinked Components I. Human Resource Management 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Identify skills mismatches/gaps, and suboptimal amount of training. Evaluate three key policies in the skills domain: soft skills and English language. Assess skill forming policies, benchmarking and learning from international practices. Future human resource requirements: Micro-simulation results. Way forward to better manage human resources. II. Immigration Management 1. 2. 3. 4. 3 Characterize labor migration in Malaysia over time, sectors and states. Identify economic and social impact of foreign workers in the economy. Assess current policy compared to international systems. Way forward to better manage immigration. The World Bank, East Asia Pacific Region, Human Development Dept. Social Protection & Labor Unit Road map 1. What are the potential concerns over the employment of foreign workers? 2. Foreign workers and Malaysia: 3. 4. 5. • Determinants of employment of foreign workers in Malaysia • Profile of foreign workers in Malaysia Economic Impact of Foreign Workers on: • Labor markets • Firm-sub-sector productivity Potential effects of policy changes: • Macroeconomic Impacts • Sub-sector growth and employment Foreign Workers Management: • 6. Conclusion: • 4 Current Policies and comparable Systems Key Messages The World Bank, East Asia Pacific Region, Human Development Dept. Social Protection & Labor Unit Potential Concerns over the Employment of Foreign Workers 1. 2. 3. 4. 5 Do foreign workers hurt Malaysian workers in terms of employment and wages? • Wage and employment impact on local workers • Impact on skill acquisition and education incentives • Impact on female labor force participation Do foreign workers hamper productivity increase and technological advances? • Substitution of unskilled labor for technology • Sectoral diversification of the economy How will further restrictions on employment of foreign workers impact the economy? • Macroeconomic effects - growth, investment, unemployment • Growth across sectors • Wage and employment effect across educational categories What are the social costs and benefits of employing foreign workers? • Crime and social costs • Impact on demographic patterns and fertility The World Bank, East Asia Pacific Region, Human Development Dept. Social Protection & Labor Unit Value added of this report This report adds to the foreign management Lab and previous analyses in four ways: 1. It uses economic tools to measure the impact of the employment of foreign workers on Malaysian workers and on productivity of firms in key economic sectors. 2. It uses simulation analysis to estimate potential changes to key policies, i.e. “levy regime.” 3. It undertakes an in-depth view of the Malaysian foreign workers management system and benchmarks it against a group of relevant countries, including Australia, Canada, Korea, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand, and the United States. 4. It brings together the lessons from the economic analysis, simulations, and the institutional analysis to make evidence-based recommendations. 6 The World Bank, East Asia Pacific Region, Human Development Dept. Social Protection & Labor Unit FOREIGN WORKERS AND MALAYSIA MAIN DETERMINANTS The World Bank, East Asia Pacific Region, Human Development Dept. Social Protection & Labor Unit Education levels in Malaysia improved drastically over the last 20 years One of the most remarkable features of the Malaysian experience has been the advances achieved in education levels of the labor force over a very short period. Education distribution of Malaysian workers 100% 80% 60% The share of Malaysians with (at most) primary school education declined from 61% in 1990 to 26% in 2010 40% 20% The share of secondary educated (at most) increased from 34% to 56%. The share of college educated increased from 5% to 18% in the same period. 0% Not applicable Upper Secondary Degree No formal/Primary Post secondary Note: The analysis is focuses on the working age population (15 to 64 years of age) 8 Lower Secondary Diploma/Certificate Education levels of younger workers improved even faster The increase in the education levels of the new entrants to the labor market 25-35 age group - has been even more remarkable. Education distribution of Malaysian workers (25-35) 100% 80% In 1990, over 50% of young workers had primary education (at most), 40% had secondary education and less than 10% had tertiary education. In 2010, around 10% had primary, over 60% had secondary and close to 30% had tertiary education. The remarkable expansion of formal education and human capital levels led to changes in job preferences of many Malaysians. 9 60% 40% 20% 0% Not applicable Upper Secondary Degree No formal/Primary Post secondary Lower Secondary Diploma/Certificate Labor Market conditions have been quite tight Unemployment rates have always been quite low. This is partly due to rapid growth as well as relatively low labor force participation levels by women. The inflow of foreign workers is largely attributable to demand factors in the domestic labor market. Labor Force Participation 14,000 Labor Market Composition 100% 12,000 80% 10,000 8,000 60% 6,000 40% 4,000 2,000 20% 10 Female natives Total employed Total Unemployed 2011 2010 2005 2000 1995 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 1993 1992 1990 Male Natives 1990 0 0% The economy heavily relies on export-oriented manufacturing and domestic service sectors Agriculture Mining Mfg food-bev-tob Mfg textile Mfg wood Mfg paper-furn Mfg chem-rub Metal-machinery-equ Mfg meas-med-com Mfg transp equip Utilities Construction Wholesale-retail Accommodation and resturant Logistics Post and telecom Finance Real estate Business services Education Health Other services Public administration Distribution of labor force by economic sector 2010 1990 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% The employment of foreign workers is a demand driven phenomenon Over the last two decades, Malaysian labor markets experienced … * Rapid increases in human capital and education levels * Low unemployment and labor force participation * Increased diversification across sectors * Continued importance of several export and domestic service sectors The large inflow of foreign workers is largely attributable to … * Demand factors in the domestic labor market in labor intensive sectors * Relative shortage of unskilled workers * Remarkable economic success of Malaysia relative to neighboring countries 12 FOREIGN WORKERS AND MALAYSIA PROFILE OF FOREIGN WORKERS The World Bank, East Asia Pacific Region, Human Development Dept. Social Protection & Labor Unit Labor Force data account for about 2+ million foreign workers in Malaysia Foreign Workers in Malaysia, 1990-2010 2,500,000 1,500,000 1,000,000 Total (adj.) 14 Female (adj.) Male (adj.) 2010 2009 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 0 1993 500,000 1992 Due to large number of unregistered undocumented workers, it is difficult to get a more precise estimate. 2,000,000 1990 Inflows of foreign workers have steadily increased since the early 1990s, when the government introduced formal guidelines on foreign workforce management. Foreign workers compose around 10% of the labor force Estates/group housing are excluded from labor force survey. Other estimates show the total at 18% (NER,2009) and 20% (MOF, 2009). Foreign Workers as share of the Labor Force 12.00 10.00 8.00 6.00 4.00 2.00 0.00 15 % labor force (adj.) % 15+ (adj.) Indonesia is the main sending country and Sabah the main recipient state Nearly two-thirds of foreign workers in Malaysia are in three states – Sabah, Selangor and Johor. Rest Bangladesh Thailand Other SE Asia Johor Philippines Indonesia Sabah Kedah Kelantan Melaka Negeri Sembilan Pahang Singapore Pulau Pinang Almost two-thirds of the foreign workers come from Indonesia. The next largest group are from the Philippines (13%). WP Labuan WP Kuala Lumpur Terenggan u Perak Selangor Perlis Foreign labor continues to be largely concentrated in physically demanding sectors of the economy such as agriculture and construction 201 0 200 0 199 0 0% 17 20% Agriculture Wholesale-retail Mfg meas-med-com Metal-machinery-equ Mfg transp equip Health Mining Post and telecom 40% 60% Construction Accommodation and resturant Business services Mfg chem-rub Mfg paper-furn Education Real estate Finance 80% Other services Mfg wood Mfg food-bev-tob Logistics Mfg textile Public administration Utilities 100% Foreign workers make up the largest share of the labor force in wood products, other services and agriculture sectors Finance Public administration Education Post and telecom Health Utilities Real estate Logistics Wholesale-retail Business services Mfg textile Mfg paper-furn Mining Mfg meas-med-com Metal-machinery-equ Accommodation and resturant Mfg chem-rub Mfg food-bev-tob Mfg transp equip Construction Agriculture Other services Mfg wood 2010 0 18 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 2000 40 1990 45 50 Foreign workers are significantly less educated than Malaysians... Their educational distributions that have been more stable over time. This pattern is simply due to demand factors in the Malaysian labor market. No formal/Primary Lower Secondary Not applicable No formal/Primary Lower Secondary Upper Secondary Post secondary Diploma/Certificate Upper Secondary Post secondary Diploma/Certificate Degree 2010 2009 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 1993 2010 2009 2007 2006 2005 2004 Not applicable Degree 19 2003 0% 2002 0% 2001 20% 2000 20% 1999 40% 1998 40% 1997 60% 1996 60% 1995 80% 1993 80% 1992 100% 1990 100% 1992 Education distribution of foreign workers 1990 Education distribution of Malaysian workers Labor intensive economic sectors rely on foreign rather than Malaysian labor Even when employed in capital intensive sectors, foreign workers hold low skill occupations. Education Levels by Economic Sectors, 2010 Malaysian workers Foreign workers Public administration Public administration Other services Other services Health Health Education Education Business services Business services Real estate Real estate Finance Finance Post and telecom Post and telecom Logistics Logistics Accommodation and resturant Accommodation and… Wholesale-retail Wholesale-retail Construction Construction Utilities Utilities Mfg transp equip Mfg transp equip Mfg meas-med-com Mfg meas-med-com Metal-machinery-equ Metal-machinery-equ Mfg chem-rub Mfg chem-rub Mfg paper-furn Mfg paper-furn Mfg wood Mfg wood Mfg textile Mfg textile Mfg food-bev-tob Mfg food-bev-tob Mining Mining Agriculture Agriculture 0% 20 50% 100% 0% Not applicable Secondary 50% 100% Primary/No formal Tertiary ECONOMIC IMPACT LABOR MARKETS The World Bank, East Asia Pacific Region, Human Development Dept. Social Protection & Labor Unit Which way does the causality between economic performance and foreign labor go? FACT: We tend to find higher numbers of foreign workers in rapidly growing industries and regions across the world. QUESTION: Do foreign workers contribute to economic growth or are they simply attracted to booming areas? ECONOMIC GROWTH FOREIGN WORKERS Pull vs. Push Factors Pull factors in the destination countries and push factors in the origin countries jointly determine the inflows of foreign workers. These two effects need to be separated to identify the effect of foreign labor on economic outcomes in destination countries. Using demographic data from the main origin countries and historical migration patterns by sector and state, our econometric methodology is able to identify the causal effect of foreign labor on the labor market outcomes in Malaysia. Employment of foreign workers leads to job creation for Malaysian workers 601 new full-time jobs (of which 67 are parttime) are created for Malaysian workers in a given sector in a state as a result of the entry of 1000 new foreign workers. This is mainly a reallocation effect 400 350 300 250 200 700 150 600 100 500 50 400 0 Male 300 Total Employment 200 Male Female Part-Time Employment The effect on men and women seems to vary significantly, especially in terms of total employment. 100 0 Total Employment 24 Female Part-Time Employment Effects are heterogeneous across age groups and sectors Small effect on young workers, while much larger positive effect on other age groups. 600 500 400 300 300 250 200 200 100 150 0 Agriculture & Manufaturing Mining 100 The employment of foreign workers leads to increased employment of Malaysians in every major sector. 50 0 15-19 25 Services 20-29 30-44 45+ Effects Also Differ Across Education Categories Low educated/unskilled workers are hurt, while the impact on tertiary educated are much smaller. The main beneficiaries are Medium Skilled/Educated Workers. Degree and above Certificate/Diploma Post-Secondaty (STPM) Upper Secondary (SPM) Lower Secondary (PMR) No formal/Primary -400 26 -300 -200 -100 0 100 200 300 400 Impact on Wages of Malaysian Workers Changes in employment due to increases in employment of foreign workers (for a given region and sector) do not lead to significant changes in the wages of Malaysian workers, mainly due to tightness of labor markets Personal characteristics (age, gender, education) play a role on how much Malaysians can benefit in terms of higher wages. Overall Female Male 45+ 30-44 20-29 15-19 Degree + Certificate / Diploma Post-Secondary (STPM) Upper Secondary (SPM) Lower Secondary (PMR) No Formal / Primary -0.06 27 -0.04 -0.02 0.00 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.10 When Additional Foreign Workers enter the Malaysian Labor Market… • The main effect is re-allocation from other sectors and regions. Entry of foreign workers into a sector leads to further expansion by employment of additional Malaysian workers. • There is no contraction in national employment levels of Malaysians workers • Malaysian workers’ wages increase by a small amount. • Existing foreign workers’ wages decline considerably. 28 ECONOMIC IMPACT FIRMS & PRODUCTIVITY The World Bank, East Asia Pacific Region, Human Development Dept. Social Protection & Labor Unit Establishment census data covers formally registered firms % of Establishments 80.0% % of Labor force Manufacturing Agriculture 60.0% 80.0% 40.0% 60.0% 40.0% 20.0% 20.0% 0.0% Micro Small Medium Large 0.0% Micro 80% Small Medium Large Accommodation 60% 40% 20% ICT Construction 0% 80.0% Micro Medium 80.0% Large 60.0% 60.0% 40.0% 40.0% 20.0% 20.0% 0.0% 0.0% Micro 30 Small Small Medium Large Micro Small Medium Large It is the large firms that employ the largest share of foreign workers Establishments With/Without Foreign Workers in Manufacturing 17,168 Without migrants With migrants 11,632 4,767 2,435 1,006 415 Micro 31 Small Medium 1,883 363 Large In all sectors (except agriculture) value added per workers is higher in establishments that employ foreign workers Average Value added per worker by Workforce Composition and Sector, 2010 400000 300000 200000 100000 0 Agriculture Manufacturing Construction Without migrants 32 Accommodation With migrants ICT Again, the causality between productivity and foreign labor is critical FACT: We tend to find foreign workers in large firms and in firms with higher value added . QUESTION: Do foreign workers contribute to higher productivity or larger/more productive firms hire foreign workers? FIRM PRODUCTIVITY FOREIGN LABOR The impact of foreign labor on productivity varies by sector… Overall positive impacts on medium and large firms (50+ workers) in manufacturing and construction. For plantations, Accommodation and ICT services results are not conclusive. 8.0% 6.0% For ICT and Accommodation the analysis is conducted for firms with 5+ workers due to data availability 4.0% 2.0% 34 Plantation (50+) Construction (50+) -6.0% Accommodation (5+) -4.0% ICT (5+) -2.0% Manufacturing (50+) 0.0% …and by firm size For smaller firms (20 to 50 workers) the results are very different. 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% -10% -12% -14% -16% -18% -20% 35 Manufacturing 50) (20 to Plantation (20 to 50) Construction (20 to 50) Impact of foreign labor within manufacturing (50+ workers) Within the manufacturing sector, the effect is significant in all subsectors except on Food-beverages-tobacco and Textile. The effect is negative in Chemicals/rubber, precision and communication instruments and transportation equipment. It is positive in wood, paper/furniture, metal/machinery equipment and transportation equipment. 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% -10% 36 Effects are Heterogeneous Across Industries and Firms • In general, the effect on productivity is positive, especially in manufacturing and construction. • The main beneficiaries are large firms. Foreign workers impact productivity of small firms, especially in plantation and construction negatively .. • Within manufacturing firms, capital intensive sectors are hurt but they do not employ large number of foreign workers anyway. SOCIAL IMPACT CRIME The World Bank, East Asia Pacific Region, Human Development Dept. Social Protection & Labor Unit Crime rates for immigrants are lower than for Malaysians (except murder) Average Crime Rates of Malaysians and Foreigners, 2003-2010 0.7% 0.6% 0.5% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% -0.1% Violent Property Murder Total Rape Robbery Malaysians Body Injury House Vehicles Other breaking Thefts Property thefts Foreigners Source: Author’s calculations with Data from the Royal Malaysian Police 39 Does immigration lead to higher rates of crime? FACT: Increasing sentiment that the presence of foreign workers is associated with higher rates of crime. QUESTION: Do foreign workers increase the propensity to commit crime or do regions with high crime rates employ more migrants ? CRIME FOREIGN WORKERS Figure 44. Crime Rates of Malaysians and Foreigners Does immigration lead to higher rates of crime? Using the same econometric technique as in the previous sections, we find that changes in the supply of immigrants to a state result in a fall in the number of crimes committed in a state. Impact of Immigration on Crime (for every 100,000 immigrants) 0.0% -0.5% -1.0% Violent Property Murder Rape Robbery Body Injury House Vehicles Other breaking Thefts Property thefts % of crime -1.5% -2.0% The effect on crime rate is even more pronounced. -2.5% -3.0% -3.5% -4.0% -4.5% -5.0% 41 Source: Author’s calculations with Data from the Royal Malaysian Police Making sense of these results…. Potential channels of transmission from immigration to crime • Economic activity (unemployment, wages, sectoral growth, etc…) • Different opportunity costs of crime for immigrants and locals • Social tensions The report demonstrates that immigration increases economic activity from which Malaysian workers benefit. This in turn is likely to decrease criminal activity. 42 POTENTIAL EFFECTS OF POLICY CHANGES MACROECONOMIC IMPACT The World Bank, East Asia Pacific Region, Human Development Dept. Social Protection & Labor Unit Macroeconomic impacts Goals of the Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Model •Detailed model of production with 23 sectors and 21 separate skill categories to capture a wide range of policy options. •Allows us to simulate different levy scenarios – as well as from whom they are collected. •Identify the effect on macroeconomic variables – growth, investment •Identify the effect on wages and unemployment of Malaysian workers in different sectors and different skill levels. •Identify the effect of minimum wage policies on these variables. 44 The Model Has 23 sectors Sectoral Growth Rates 2005-2010 1 AGRICULTURE 2 MINIG MANUFACTURING 3 Mfg food-beverage-tobacco 4 Mfg textile 5 Mfg wood 6 Mfg paper-furniture 7 Mfg chemical-rub 8 Metal-machinery-equip 9 Mfg measurement-med-com 10 Mfg transport equip 11 UTILITIES 12 CONSTRUCTION SERVICES 13 Wholesale-retail 14 Accommodation and restaurants 15 Logistics 16 Post and telecom 17 Finance 18 Real estate 19 Business services 20 Education 21 Health 22 Other services 23 Public administration 45 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 -0.1 -0.2 Model Macro CGE The Model Has 21 Educational Categories Tracked Over Time Skill Levels Lower Skill - Secondary or less 1 No schooling 2 UPSR/UPSA equivalent 3 PMR or equivalent 4 SPM or equivalent 5 STPM or equivalent Medium Skill -Certificate/Diploma 6 Arts & Humanities 7 Social science, business, law 8 Science, math, IT 9 Engineering 10 Agriculture 11 Health 12 Services 13 Education Higher Skill -University Degree 14 Arts & Humanities 15 Social science, business, law 16 Science, math, IT 17 Engineering 18 Agriculture 19 Health 20 Services 21 Education Evolution of Labor Supply by Skill Level 1.5 1 0.5 0 1 -0.5 46 Simulated vs. Actual - 2005-2010 2 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 LFS 12 13 14 CGE 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 Once Levy Costs are Adjusted, Legal International Immigration is expected to fall International Immigration Employers Pay for the Levy International Immigration Workers Pay for the Levy 1.3 1.3 1.2 47 1.1 Millions Millions 1.2 1 1.1 1 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 Reference 20% Levy Increase 50% Levy Increase 100% Levy Increase The Impact on GDP Growth is Marginal in all the scenarios, irrespective of whom pays the levy Evolution of GDP Growth Rate 5.30% 5.20% 5.10% 5.00% Reference 4.90% 4.80% Employer pays: 50% Levy Increase 4.70% Foreign worker pays: 50% Levy Increase 4.60% 4.50% 4.40% 48 The Impact of a Levy Increase is Marginal in Most Economic Sub-Sectors a-Public administration a-Health a-Business services a-Finance a-Logistics a-Wholesale-retail a-Utilities a-Mfg meas-med-com a-Mfg chem-rub a-Mfg wood a-Mfg food-bev-tob a-Agriculture -0.001 -0.0005 0 0.0005 Employee pays 50% Levy 49 0.001 0.0015 Employer pays 50% Levy 0.002 Wages of Medium-skill Workers are not affected by a levy increase 0.35% 0.30% Employer pays: 50% Levy Increase 0.25% Employee pays: 50% Levy Increase 0.20% 0.15% 0.10% 0.05% 0.00% 50 Workers with no formal education or at most primary school see a marginal rise in their wages. Wages of Foreign Workers are Affected by Levies SPM or Equivalent STPM or equivalent -1.50% PMR or equivalent -1.00% UPSR/UPSA or equivalent -0.50% No schooling 0.00% -2.00% -2.50% -3.00% Employer pays: 50% Levy Increase -3.50% Employee pays: 50% Levy Increase -4.00% 51 This is particularly true for lower-skill workers. NEW LAWS AFTER THE REPORT WAS COMPLETED The World Bank, East Asia Pacific Region, Human Development Dept. Social Protection & Labor Unit Minimum Wage and Levies • Minimum Wage Deferral for Foreign Workers – March 2013: The Malaysian government has approved the delayed implementation by small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) of new minimum wage standard for their foreign workers. The National Wages Consultative Council, which is responsible for the implementation of the standard, said in a statement that the employers in SMEs are permitted to defer the implementation until Dec. 31. • Levy to be Paid by Foreign Workers– January 2013: “The minimum wage, which came into force this year has raised the salary for all workers on an average of between 30 per cent and 50 per cent, or from RM600RM700 per month to RM900 monthly.” “The Government’s move to impose a levy on foreign workers will not be a burden to them as the levy paid is between RM34.16 and RM154.16 per month as compared to a salary increase of between RM300 to RM500 per month” Second Finance Minister Datuk Seri Ahmad Husni Hanadzlah FOREIGN WORKFORCE MANAGEMENT POLICIES AND COMPARABLE SYSTEMS The World Bank, East Asia Pacific Region, Human Development Dept. Social Protection & Labor Unit Designing Immigration Policies Building an immigration system is a complex task with a repercussion on a multiplicity of spheres. Learning from other countries is important, but a one-size-fits-all approaches do not exist. Key factors to take into account are: 1. 2. 3. 4. Age structure and dynamics of the population Labor Market conditions (unemployment, labor force participation, wage growth, etc…) Education levels of natives and migrants (supply, demand and skill gaps) Geographic and cultural factors Flexibility of Policy Regime Institutional bodies in charge of immigration need the flexibility to respond to sudden changes in the economic environment. Basic levies, fees and taxes can be used to influence total number of foreign workers. Differential levies can be used to channel foreign workers to targeted sectors which face shortages and have national priorities. South Korea has a very flexible approach with sector specific quotas revised regularly. The Singaporean system is regularly adjusted based on market conditions by using the foreign workers levy system that differs by sector, skill and firm size. Malaysia: annual levy system and quotas at the sectoral and sub-sectoral level. This system does not fully respond to underlying market conditions and their rapid evolution. Consultations with stakeholders Policy decisions should be taken in consultations with key stakeholders, in particular the private firms in sectors that critically depend on foreign labor. Such consultations should take place on a regular basis and be clearly structured. In Singapore, extension of the maximum employment period for foreign low skilled workers (from 6 to 10 years) to maximize productivity gains. In Australia every a list of occupations in need is compiled in consultation with representatives of unions and industries. In Canada, reports of consultations with unions, employers and experts are made public. Malaysian stakeholders revealed that consultations are ad-hoc and do not effectively inform the government of market conditions on a regular basis. Preventing Undocumented Workers When it comes to undocumented workers, a country should remove the economic incentives (high levies/visa fees, high minimum wages etc) for undocumented migration by: (1) having repercussions for employers hiring undocumented workers (2) imposing reasonable costs and fees for employing documented foreign workers so that incentives for undocumented migration stays low (3) having in place a clear legislation regulating the activities of migration agencies In Malaysia, several measures to prevent illegal migration (Anti-Trafficking in Person Act, stricter conditions for private agencies to be licensed by MOHA, implementation of a new regularization (6P) program). Only countries with natural barriers (e.g. Australia) can properly manage to limit undocumented migration. In countries with large porous borders (United States and European Union) unskilled workers have relatively easy access through irregular channels. KEY POLICY INSTRUMENTS The World Bank, East Asia Pacific Region, Human Development Dept. Social Protection & Labor Unit Towards a new system: Levies Vs. Quotas QUOTAS Almost every government in the world uses quantitative restrictions to control the number of migrants and foreign workers entering their jurisdictions. Economics literature and policy discussions are full of examples showing why price mechanisms – taxes, tariffs, levies – can be more efficient and effective than quantity restrictions. Towards a new system: Levies Vs. Quotas BENEFITS OF LEVIES Levies provide flexibility to government agencies to respond to sudden changes in the economic environment. Levies allow governments to raise revenues as a taxation mechanism. This revenue would otherwise accrue to the recruiting agencies and employers. They can be used training, enforcement and other objectives related to foreign worker policies. Levies can act as wage stabilization mechanisms and provide balanced wage growth paths. Towards a new system: Critical features An ideal mechanism for Malaysia would involve: 1) Maintaining more relaxed quotas with more strategically designed levies across sectors. 2) Levies that are not occupation-specific but sector-specific. The definition of sectors should be neither extremely broad or narrow. 3) Levies that are reviewed and adjusted periodically – possibly every 2-3 years – using signals from the labor market. The critical observation will be the sector-specific wage levels. 4) Effective enforcement, especially given the minimum wage laws are likely to encourage non-compliance and informality. CONCLUSION KEY MESSAGES The World Bank, East Asia Pacific Region, Human Development Dept. Social Protection & Labor Unit Key messages Malaysia’s rapid economic growth accompanied with labor market shortages for unskilled workers continue to attract foreign workers from neighboring countries. The differences in growth differentials and overall educational gaps between the labor forces of Malaysia and its more populous neighbors, such as Indonesia and the Philippines, are the key pull and push factors that fuel the current migration patterns. Appropriate policies need to be designed with these economic fundamentals in mind. Key messages An abrupt disruption of foreign unskilled labor supply could cause unpredictable effects in the economy. Since unemployment levels are low and vast majority of the Malaysian workers do not compete with foreign workers, benefits to domestic workers from a decline in the inflow of foreign labor are limited. Thus, the government is highly encouraged to review its foreign workers program and design nuanced policies to accommodate the economy’s particular needs by sector and human capital categories. Key messages Large number of firms in labor intensive sectors would not exist without the cost advantages provided by low-skilled low-cost foreign labor. Given the types of activities and markets that some of these companies operate in (low value added), they will continue to rely heavily on low skill (low cost) foreign labor in the foreseeable future. Without foreign labor, these sectors would simply disappear and lead to unemployment of significant number of mid-skilled local workers in the short to medium term. Key messages There are also skills gaps on the higher end of the labor market spectrum. It takes a long period for the education and training systems to produce new core skills. It is possible that the country will have to rely on foreign talent to fill these occupational gaps to avoid having bottlenecks. Government should consider more flexible entry regimes and promising long-term opportunities in order to attract and retain skilled foreign workers, including university students. Key messages Another clear lessons to emerge is to invest in the collection of reliable, high quality, regular and detailed data on all workers— local and foreign— and firms to track the labor market conditions, properly understand the effects of foreign labor and evaluate future policy changes. The data collection program has to be a joint effort of all relevant agencies that are responsible for labor markets, education, taxation and domestic security. Key messages It is beneficial to maintain a list of occupations and sectors in short supply of skills, namely a “workforce dashboard.” This tool requires periodically updated data to be shared by all relevant government agencies. The system prevents overuse of foreign workers and bring objectivity into the process, instead of the government relying on potentially subjective data provided by the employers. THANK YOU!!! Ximena Del Carpio [email protected] Washington DC +(202) 458-1004 Çaglar Özden [email protected] Washington DC +(202) 473-5549 Mauro Testaverde [email protected] Washington DC +(202) 458-4354
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