ENERGY POLICY WEEKLY More online... Visit our website for all the latest news and analysis on Policy & Regulation Policy & Regulation from Brussels and beyond Contents Energy security EU’s ‘soft target’ on energy savings is blow for Brussels E2 Investment & finance EU leaders agree to boost financial support for CCS E3 Energy security New Belgian government rethinks CCGT support E4 Data page Decoupling of wholesale and retail prices continues – ACER E5 Brussels in brief Regular news roundup E6 Energy industry considers solidarity fund for LNG purchasing Energy security EU rethink on supply security The European energy industry is considering a solidarity fund for the common purchasing of LNG cargoes as one of several measures to mitigate potential gas supply disruptions from third countries – including Russia. The idea of common purchasing of LNG was discussed briefly at the annual Gas Regulatory Forum in Madrid earlier this month following growing concerns about the gas price dispute between Russia and Ukraine. The idea has been circulating in the energy industry for a while, although no concrete proposal has been tabled yet. “If we anticipate disruption, maybe we should buy some LNG cargoes for the winter. One could envisage a solidarity fund for such pre-emptive measures,” Walter Boltz, vice president of the Council of European Energy Regulators, told Interfax. Boltz said stakeholders could pool the financial risk of LNG purchasing. “LNG is more expensive than piped Russian gas. If there is no supply disruption, then buyers would share the losses,” he said. Strengthened regulation Editor, EU Policy and Regulation Andreas Walstad [email protected] Correspondent, EU Policy and Regulation Annemarie Botzki [email protected] Chief Sub-editor Rhys Timson Sub-editors Doug Kitson, Rob Loveday Layout & Design Joseph Williams www.interfaxenergy.com The dispute between Kiev and Moscow over gas debts and future payments has prompted the European Commission to review the EU’s Security of Gas Supply Regulation (994/2010). A proposal for a strengthened regulation is expected by next summer. The existing regulation was adopted in the wake of the Ukraine gas crisis in 2009. It obliges member states to make sure they can supply gas – at least to household users – for a minimum of 30 days of exceptionally high demand, or in the event of disruption to each country’s single largest piece of gas infrastructure during average temperatures. However, the regulation does not enforce member states to show solidarity during severe disruption. “There is some weakness in the current regulation. Coordination between member states is relatively weak... The European Network of Transmission System Operators [TSOs] for Gas cannot force TSOs to act. There is no legal basis for coordination – maybe we should have that,” Boltz said. “The Russians have forced the EU to rethink ■R egulators discussed common purchasing of LNG in Madrid ■C ommission will review regulation 994/2010 on security of supply in gas ■M ember states urged to show greater cross-border coordination regarding supply disruption Sources: CEER, European Commission, Interfax everything in terms of security of supply,” he added. The need for increased cross-border cooperation between member states was also highlighted in a recent stress test report from the commission. The report said member states placed greater emphasis on national rather than regional approaches to gas supply security. One example is in the Baltic region, where the Incukalns underground gas storage facility in Latvia is the only functioning storage site in the area. “In the Baltic region the position of [Incukalns] is so crucial that, if it cannot [be relied on], Estonia would run out of gas to even supply its protected customers within five days,” the report said. Outgoing Energy Commissioner Günther Oettinger told a press conference in Brussels earlier this month the commission originally wanted a 50- or 60-day supply obligation under the regulation. However, this did not receive the necessary backing from the European Council. “I will be proposing that by next year the [regulation] would be updated or work would begin on reviewing it – that stocks for a longer period would be covered. I hope... the higher figure would be acceptable now in council,” Oettinger said. However Boltz warned against being overly ambitious on storage obligations. “It is probably wise to avoid obligations that are too ambitious; 30-60 days actually costs quite a lot,” he said. “We cannot forget that gas is relatively expensive in Europe. We have to be careful not to over-do regulation – it could push gas out of the market.” Andreas Walstad [email protected] Energy Policy Weekly | 30 October 2014 | E1 ENERGY POLICY WEEKLY EU’s ‘soft target’ on energy savings is blow for Brussels Energy security The 2030 targets explained THe leaders of the 28 EU nations have failed to agree on a binding energy efficiency target for 2030 – a setback for the European Commission and Parliament as well as some member states. EU heads of state met in Brussels on 23-24 October to strike a deal on energy and climate targets for 2030 (see EU deal on 2030 targets shows mixed ambitions, 24 October 2014). The outcome of the summit was mixed – it produced a binding target for carbon dioxide emissions reductions by 2030, but no binding targets for energy efficiency or renewables. “We only have one binding target, which is a 40% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions. The other targets – about renewables, about energy efficiency – they don’t have any national targets. That is what Britain wanted, that is what Britain achieved,” UK Prime Minister David Cameron told a press conference in Brussels after the summit. France was among the nations that had lobbied for a more ambitious energy efficiency target. However, Paris had to settle for a goal of 27% that will not be binding at national level. “France would have preferred […] to go further on energy savings,” French President François Hollande told journalists. What was agreed at the European Council summit on 23-24 October? EU leaders agreed one binding target: a 40% reduction in CO2 emissions compared with 1990 levels by 2030. The target is a doubling of the 2020 target, which member states are on track to meet. The 2030 target is binding at national level, meaning all 28 member states will have to reach it albeit with effort-sharing in the non-ETS sector. Some concessions have been offered to lower-income countries, including free carbon allowances in the energy sector and financial support to modernise carbon-intensive power plants in those countries. Many wanted more ambition on renewables and energy efficiency. What was agreed? The target for renewables to comprise 27% of energy consumption by 2030 is not binding at national level. This is in stark contrast to the 2020 target of 20%, which was broken down to binding national targets through effort-sharing. However, national support schemes for renewables have proved to be expensive, and many countries lobbied against binding targets for them for 2030. The 27% target is seen as little more than ‘business as usual’. There is also confusion as to how member states will be held accountable if they do not reach the new target. The 27% energy efficiency target – compared with projected energy consumption – is only indicative, and will be reviewed by 2020. There is a possibility the commission will try to introduce binding measures at that time as it did with the 2020 target. The EU is expected to miss the 2020 target (20%) by a relatively small margin – perhaps 1-2%. How did the gas industry perceive the 2030 agreement? Positive overall. The 40% CO2 reduction target combined with ETS reform may encourage a switch from coal to gas in power generation. The absence of binding targets on energy efficiency and renewables is also seen as positive for capacity utilisation at gas-fired power plants, which have been struggling as a result of weak profit margins. What are the next steps? The commission will now have to turn the council agreement into legislation. The proposed legislation will then have to be formally adopted by the council and parliament. This will have to be done before the UN climate summit in Paris in December next year. Sources: European Commission, Deutsche Bank, Eurogas, Interfax Tougher targets The commission, as well as a majority of MEPs, also wanted a more ambitious deal on energy efficiency. The commission proposed a 30% energy efficiency target for 2030 earlier this year – 10% lower than the limit MEPs had previously called for. Energy efficiency – measured as energy savings against a projected ‘business as usual’ scenario – is seen as a key driver to reduce import dependence on fossil fuels, including gas from Russia. EU countries import around 66% of their gas, and almost 40% of that is from Russia. “A binding 30% objective for energy efficiency by 2030 is to me the minimum if we want to be credible,” commission Presidentelect Jean-Claude Juncker said in his mission letter to Maroš Šefcovic, vice president for energy union, on 15 October. Hollande www.interfaxenergy.com nevertheless hailed the 2030 energy and climate package as “ambitious for the planet”. With the agreement on the 40% target for CO2 cuts compared with 1990 levels by 2030, the EU now has a better position to negotiate a global agreement, Hollande said. The EU hopes to get big polluters such as China and the United States on board for a global agreement on CO2 cuts at the UN climate summit in Paris in December next year (see China and US will make or break climate deal, 23 October 2014). “It is an ambitious agreement. Of course there will always be some people who say it does not go far enough,” said Hollande. “But had Europe not found an agreement, how could we have turned to the US [and] China?” The 40% CO2 reduction target could encourage a switch from coal to gas in power generation over time, analysts say. But fuel switching would also require higher carbon prices under the EU’s Emissions Trading System (ETS). The commission has proposed to reform the ETS by 2021. However, many stakeholders in the energy industry are calling for earlier reform to address the 2 billion surplus of allowances (see EU ETS reform ‘must come sooner’ than 2021, 3 April 2014). “The ETS needs to be reformed earlier than 2021. This could be done by cancelling the back-loaded allowances by 2020 or by moving them into the Market Stability Reserve, which is introduced as early as 2017,” Beate Raabe, secretary general of Eurogas, told Interfax. Andreas Walstad [email protected] Energy Policy Weekly | 30 October 2014 | E2 ENERGY POLICY WEEKLY EU leaders agree to boost financial support for CCS Investment & finance The European Council, which represents the heads of the EU member states, has agreed to increase funding for carbon capture and storage (CCS) demonstration projects after 2020. The existing NER300 funding programme will be renewed by its successor – the NER400 programme, which will be financed by 400 million EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) allowances, the council agreed on 23 October. NER300 raised €2.1 billion ($2.68 billion) on the carbon market for renewable energy projects and one CCS project – the planned White Rose demonstration project at the UK’s Drax power station, which secured €300 million in funding from the scheme in July (see Glimmer of hope for CCS as UK secures €300 mln from EU, 10 July 2014). “The new NER400 funding mechanism has the potential to provide a much-needed shot in the arm to the deployment of CCS technology across Europe, helping to reinvigorate an industry which is crucial to helping the world meet its climate targets,” Andrew Purvis, general manager for Europe, the Middle East and Africa at the Global CCS Institute, said following the decision. However, CCS is still seen by many as an expensive and largely unproven technology, and has suffered several setbacks over the News in brief Angela Merkel has said Germany supports a higher renewable energy target for Europe and will provide more than the agreed 27% target share. “Germany could have imagined a higher target than 27%,“ Merkel said following the council meeting. “Germany will definitely do more – [it] already has 25% renewable energy contributing to electricity production and we agreed [it] will continue to receive state aid under the EU guidelines – which is immensely important for the Energiewende,” she added. www.interfaxenergy.com CO2 emissions 800 g/kWh Concentration of CO2 in foul gas 15 % 700 12 600 500 9 400 300 6 200 100 3 0 0 Gas-fired plant Coal-fired plant years. Low carbon prices under the ETS and the global recession have dampened interest in the technology. “We would have liked to have seen clearer wording in terms of the ambition level for CCS deployment. Unfortunately, the awareness and understanding of the urgency is too weak in most of Europe at this point,” Jonas Helseth, director of environmental NGO Bellona Europa, told Interfax. Costly and unproven Including CCS as part of NER400 is in itself unlikely to kick-start investment in the technology in the EU. “However, it sends a signal to investors that large [amounts of] public money will be available for future projects,” Helseth said. “The past EU strategy of basing the business case on the price of ETS allowances has clearly failed, partially because of the collapse of the ETS market and partially because of the NER300 being based on that same price,” he added. The inclusion of CCS by the council could also send a signal to the European Commission, giving it a mandate to produce a different strategy for deployment – including new policy measures. Helseth supports an emission performance standard (EPS) that puts an annual limit on carbon emissions from new fossil fuel plants. “As well as the introduction of an EPS, Bellona favours an EU-wide or at least regional CCS certificates scheme under which deployment is paid by fossil fuel producers,” he added. Source: E.On The commission is required to assess the current CCS Directive and present a report to the European Parliament and council by March 2015, according to Silvia Vaghi, principal manager for policy and regulation at the Global CCS Institute. According to Vivian Scott, lead policy researcher at Scottish Carbon Capture and Storage, much of the council agreement is a compromise reflecting the desire of some member states to retain large amounts of coal generation in their energy mix because of concerns over security of supply – such as uncertain gas sources – and price. While development and construction of commercial-scale CCS projects have gone ahead in Australia, Canada, China and the United States, Europe is lagging behind. The White House is providing financial assistance to a number of CCS projects across the US. The 2009 American Recovery and Reinvestment Act earmarked $3.4 billion for CCS programmes. The world’s first commercial-scale CCS power plant began operations in Canada in October (see Boundary Dam pioneers CCS for power plants, 2 October 2014). Another 12 CCS projects are in operation worldwide. According to the commission, the cost of capture and storage remains an important barrier to the take-up of CCS. The capture component in particular is an expensive part of the process. Annemarie Botzki [email protected] Energy Policy Weekly | 30 October 2014 | E3 ENERGY POLICY WEEKLY New Belgian government rethinks CCGT support Energy security Electricity in Belgium, 2013 TWh/month The new Belgian government is planning to redesign a capacity mechanism system to attract investment in combined-cycle gas turbine (CCGT) power plants. The country is facing serious risks to the security of its energy supply as a number of its nuclear reactors are offline and its CCGTs have been mothballed because they were unprofitable. The previous Belgian government launched a tender in February for around 700-900 MW of new gas power plants (see Belgium awaiting EU state aid decision on CCGT support, 22 May 2014). Annual support of up to around €45/MW ($136/MW) for open-cycle gas turbine plants and around €90/MW for CCGT plants was originally planned. The new four-party coalition government – led by Prime Minister Charles Michel of the liberal Mouvement Réformateur party – had put these plans on hold. However, the government’s stance has changed. The government has said it will examine the opportunity to design a new capacity mechanism in consultation with neighbouring countries and re-examine how it could comply with European competition rules. According to Damien Verhoeven, a partner at Belgian law firm Liedekerke, the previously proposed capacity mechanism was not in line with EU law, as it excluded support for capacity generated outside of Belgium. “CCGTs and gas-fired generation will clearly remain very important to balance the Belgian system. However, as long as the modalities of the nuclear phase-out are not exactly decided, very few – if any – will invest in Belgian capacity,” Verhoeven said. Cheap domestic nuclear power production and an influx of renewable energy has made gas-fired generation unprofitable in Belgium. “However, there is unused capacity at Belgium’s borders. In the coming years, it is likely that an interconnection will connect a power plant in the Netherlands to the Belgian grid,” Verhoeven added. www.interfaxenergy.com Demand Production 0 Demand Demand 10 20 30 Non-renewable Fossil fuels Nuclear 40 50 60 70 80 90 Renewables Hydro According to Pierre Kunsch, a professor at Université Libre de Bruxelles, nuclear power plants will be replaced by gas plants and imports in the medium-to-long term. No supply security The government has maintained Belgium’s nuclear capacity will be phased out by 2025 and has confirmed it will not install new nuclear plants to replace the decommissioned ones. “Instead, to avoid problems with energy security in the short term, two nuclear reactors – Doel 1 and Doel 2 will be kept operational for a longer period of time, if they can live up to safety and security standards,” Belgian MEP Philippe de Backer told Interfax. The reactors’ operational life will be extended until 2025 from the current limit of 2015. Belgium’s nuclear phase-out was agreed in 1993, but after inspections found what were described as “dangerous defects” in the pressure vessels at the Doel 3 and Tihange 2 nuclear reactors, they were shut down and have remained offline. The Doel 4 reactor was shut down in August as a result of sabotage, with a restart scheduled for before the end of 2014. With three nuclear reactors – which together cover more than 25% of the country’s electricity demand – not operating, the risk of blackouts has considerably increased, according to Kunsch. Biomass Wind PV Source: ENTSO-E, ELIA, BC Consult “If Tihange 2 and Doel 3 are not brought online again, Belgium could be in big trouble in the next few years and massive imports of electricity from neighbouring countries would be unavoidable, particularly from France,” Kunsch said. In addition, the agreed life extension of Doel 1 and 2 may not be immediately feasible as fuel reloads suitable for the aged reactors have not been ordered in time to be able to continue operations after 2015, according to Kunsch. GDF Suez worries According to a recent Deutsche Bank report, GDF Suez is worried about Belgium’s nuclear facilities, as the problems could drag down its 2015 earnings and it is not clear what the future of nuclear generation in Belgium will be. GDF Suez has majority ownership of seven nuclear reactors in Belgium, with a total capacity of 6 GW. However, four of the seven reactors were offline at the beginning of October, with nuclear production dropping to only one third of total installed capacity. “2015 earnings are likely to be impacted, but the long-term outlook is more favourable given the new pro-nuclear Belgian government. Power price increases mean there could be revenue benefits in Belgium too,” the report said. Annemarie Botzki [email protected] Energy Policy Weekly | 30 October 2014 | E4 ENERGY POLICY WEEKLY Decoupling of wholesale and retail prices continues – ACER Retail and wholesale electricity prices: Germany Retail and wholesale electricity prices: Norway €/MWh €/MWh 100 100 80 80 Wholesale price 60 Markup to reach retail price 60 40 40 20 20 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 The trend of decoupling wholesale and retail electricity prices is continuing in a number of EU member states, the latest annual Market Monitoring Report by the Agency for the Cooperation of Energy Regulators (ACER) found. “Despite continued low economic growth in 2013, energy retail prices rose in the EU. Post-tax gas prices for household consumers rose by 2.7% (+10% in 2012) and decreased for industrial consumers by 1.2% (+11% in 2012), ” ACER said in the report. “Household energy prices are influenced by testable charges (i.e. taxation and network charges), which usually make up more than half of the total energy bill,” the report added. Network charges and the costs of subsidies are contributing to the decoupling of retail and wholesale prices. While there is limited correlation between wholesale and retail prices in Germany, the UK, and Austria, a more reasonable correlation can be found in Norway, Sweden and the Netherlands, according to ACER. Gas losing power Gas consumption for electricity production has declined compared with 2012 levels by: 30% in Spain 20% in France Europe’s changing gas demand* 10 5 0 -5 -10 2009-2012 -15 -20 16% in Italy 8% in the UK 2012-2013 LT LU GR SJ HU ES RO IT FI AT SE HR PT IE LV BE UK DK PL EE NL CZ FR BG DE SI *Cyprus and Malta do not have a gas supply and so are not listed Europe’s gas consumption amounted to 5,000 TWh in 2013, a drop of 1.2% compared with 2012, mainly as a result of the rise of coal as the fuel of choice and the increasing penetration of renewables in electricity production. In 11 out of 25 member states demand for gas fell by more than 5% in 2013 compared with 2012. The trend was most noticeable in Lithuania, Luxembourg, Greece, Slovakia and Hungary. Source: NRAs and European power exchanges data and ACER calculations; IEA www.interfaxenergy.com Annemarie Botzki in Brussels Energy Policy Weekly | 30 October 2014 | E5 ENERGY POLICY WEEKLY Monthly EU policy news round up Environmental policy Competition law Energy security European elections Date News Country/ stakeholders What this means 8 Oct The European Commission ruled the UK’s plans to subsidise the £34 billion ($43 billion) Hinkley Point nuclear power plant are in line with EU state aid rules. The UK plans to establish a 35-year price guarantee for electricity produced from the plant. The British government and EDF previously agreed on a ‘strike price’ of £92.50/MWh ($118/MWh). The UK will need about 60 GW of new electricity generation capacity to come online between 2021 and 2030 as a result of the closure of existing nuclear and coal power plants. Brussels said the project could not be financed by markets alone, and therefore the public support would address a genuine market failure – a necessary precondition for state aid. UK, EU28 The decision is seen as highly controversial and outgoing Energy Commissioner Günther Oettinger said it should not be a blueprint for other new nuclear power plants. When the commission opened the case in December last year, it said it had “doubts that the project suffers from a genuine market failure”. Opponents – including the Austrian government – said they will legally challenge the EU’s decision. A spokesman for the Austrian government said such long-term subsidies for a mature and deployed technology contradicted the logic of the EU’s state aid framework and would cause a severe market distortion. Hinkley is expected to take around 10 years to build. The plant is expected to be operational for 60 years. 16 Oct The commission published the results of the first Europewide ‘stress test’ of gas supplies. The study analysed the resilience of the EU energy system to supply disruptions, particularly from Russia. Eastern European and Energy Community countries would be most severely affected – particularly Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Finland, Bulgaria, Romania and Hungary – the study found. The study said LNG is a key tool to increase supplies in case of serious shortfalls. The study also called for increased cooperation between member states in the case of supply cuts. Nonmarket measures – such as the release of strategic stocks, forced fuel-switching and demand curtailment – should only be used when the market fails, it said. EU28, Energy Community, Russia An accompanying document reiterated calls to review the Security of Gas Supply Regulation (994/2010). This was adopted in the wake of the Ukraine gas crisis in 2009. It obliges member states to ensure they can supply gas – at least to households – for a minimum of 30 days of exceptionally high demand (supply standard). However, the study found that a way to enforce and monitor the supply standard is missing in many member states. The commission said regulation 994/2010 should be reviewed in parallel with a review of the legislative framework covering security of supply in the electricity sector (Directive 2005/89). A new proposal for 994/2010 is expected next summer. 22 Oct The heads of state of the 28 EU nations agreed on energy and climate targets for 2030. The headline target is a 40% reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions compared with 1990 levels. EU leaders also agreed on a 27% target for the share of renewables in energy consumption and a 27% energy efficiency target. However, the renewables and energy efficiency targets are not legally binding at a national level. The Council also agreed a non-binding 15% interconnection target in electricity (as a share of total power production capacity) and more funding for carbon capture and storage. EU28 The gas industry welcomed the 40% GHG reduction target, which could encourage fuel switching from coal to gas in power generation. However, many observers expressed disappointment with what they considered a lack of ambition on energy efficiency and renewables beyond 2020. Energy efficiency is seen as key to reducing the EU’s dependence on fossil fuel imports, including gas. Furthermore, the renewables target is seen as little more than a business-as-usual scenario. Many countries did not want rigid targets for renewables and energy efficiency as they see them as too costly. 22 Oct Members of the European Parliament approved the 27 commissioners proposed by President-elect Jean-Claude Juncker with 423 votes in favour, 209 against and 67 abstentions. Following the vote, Miguel Arias Cañete will become the EU’s commissioner for climate action and energy. After MEPs rejected Slovenia’s Alenka Bratušek, Slovakia’s Maroš Šefcovic will become the EU’s new energy union commissioner. Diversification of gas supply, 2030 energy and climate targets and reform of the EU Emissions Trading System are some of the urgent issues the new commission will have to deal with. It will take office on 1 November. EU28 Both Šefcovic and Cañete have expressed support for a single purchaser of gas, on the condition it does not breach World Trade Organization rules. They face tough opposition from the gas industry and member states. The idea of a common purchaser of gas on behalf of all EU members was originally launched by Donald Tusk, the Polish prime minister and incoming president of the European Council. It is seen as a controversial idea and does not have support from key member states – including the UK and Germany. However, the proposal has the backing of senior officials within the commission. The commission is studying Tusk's proposal in detail. 28 Oct New analysis by the European Environment Agency showed greenhouse gas emissions in the EU fell almost 2% between 2012 and 2013, and are now 19% below the 1990 level. The study shows the EU is likely to cut GHG emissions by at least 21% of 1990 levels by 2020, beating its 20% target. With 14% of final energy consumption generated by renewable sources in 2012, the EU is also ahead of schedule to hit its 20% renewable energy target by 2020. The EU's energy consumption is also falling faster than would be necessary to meet the 20% by 2020 energy efficiency target – for the time being at least. The study is based on data from 2012 and 2013. EU28 The study said nine member states (Croatia, Cyprus, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Greece, Hungary, Romania, Slovakia and the UK) are on track to meet all three energy and climate targets for 2020 – CO2 reductions, renewables and energy efficiency. Belgium and Germany were the only two member states considered not to be on track to meet both CO2 reduction and energy efficiency targets. Although the EU as a whole is on track to meet all three energy and climate targets, this is mostly the result of the recession and consequently lower energy demand, the study said. The recession had also lowered investment in renewables. www.interfaxenergy.com Energy Policy Weekly | 30 October 2014 | E6
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