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Earth Statement
En Global Transformation till
Hållbar Utveckling
16 september 2015
Prof. Johan Rockström
Stockholm Resilience Centre
Photo: Oskar Henriksson /Azote
earthstatement.org
#EarthStatement
Den Nya Globala Kontexten
Välkommen till Antropocen
Ökande risk för Katastrofala Tröskeleffekter
Holocen vårt önskvärda tillstånd för Planeten
Global Transformation till Utveckling på en stabil och
resilient Planet
Välfärd inom Planetens Säkra Gränser
Syria drought and the civil war
Planetens Resiliens
Global Temperature Since last Ice Age
Adapted by Stefan Rahmstorf
Tipping Points Related to 2°C-Guardrail
Schellnhuber et al., under review.
16 potential Arctic regime shifts
Arctic sea ice
Greenland
ice
Thermokarst
lake
Marine food
webs
Thermohaline
circulation
Salt marshes
Coniferous to
deciduous
boreal forest
River
channels
Kelp
Transitions
Tundra to
boreal
Peatland
Salmon
collapse
Fisheries
collapse
Inuit societal
transition
Arctic
Benthos
Borealisation
Arctic marine
primary
productivity
Stockholm Resilience Centre Regime Shifts Database
Great Acceleration
+
Earth Resilience
+
Holocene
=
Planetary Boundaries
Planetary Boundaries
A safe operating space for humanity
Steffen et al Science 16 January 2015
Global CO2 Emissions & Distribution (GtC)
365 (335-395)
OCEANS
ATMOSPHERE
155 (125-185)
TERRESTRIAL
ECOSYSTEMS
545 (230-250)
240 (230-250)
180 (100-260)
150 (60-240)
Functions and status of earth’s biomes that regulate
planetary resilience
Photos: World Wildlife Fund, breakingenergy.com, saguidedtours.com,
Sierra Club Pennsylvania, Projectaware.com, Duncan Greene/Wired UK.
The polar regions regulate
global temperature, regional
climate systems and ocean
circulation. Melting faster
than anticipated.
The world’s temperate organic
systems (such as permafrost)
act as carbon & methane sinks
and generate oxygen. Faster
than anticipated thawing of
permafrost & methane release
The World’s rainforests act
as carbon sinks, provide
moisture feedback, are
banks for genetic diversity
and generate oxygen. In
rapid decline but the rate
has declined somewhat.
Temperate forests act as carbon
sinks, regulate rainfall patterns
& generate oxygen. Relatively
stable but concern over rate of
deforestation in Russia and
severe warming impacts on
disease.
The ocean’s marine systems
act as a heat conveyer,
carbon sink, a bank for
genetic diversity and
generates oxygen. In rapid
decline
Tropical savannah systems play
a role in moisture feedback ,
regional rainfall patterns and
act as carbon sinks. They
remain relatively stable.
Implications for European Union
Domestic reductions (~40% below 1990 by 2020) are only part of total EU
obligation. The rest would have to be met internationally.
27
Vision om en Hållbar Framtid
Sverige världens första fossil-fria Nation
Att nå detta mål 2030 (-2040)
Nödvändigt? Ja
Möjligt? Ja, men tufft i vissa sektorer (stålindustri, mobilitet,
jordbruk)
Önskvärt? Ja
Universal SDGs for People and Planet
7 PRINCIPLES OF RESILIENCE THINKING
Maintain diversity & redundancy
Manage connectivity
Manage slow variables and feedbacks
Foster complex adaptive systems thinking
Encourage learning
Broaden participation
Promote polycentric governance systems
Social Tipping Point?