JAPANESE GOVERNMENT BONDS Monthly Newsletter of the Ministry of Finance, Japan This Month’s Special! What’s New ⇒ 1 Holding of the 33rd Advisory Council on Government Debt Management 2 Recent Developments in 10-year Inflation-indexed JGBs (JGBi) Monthly Topic ⇒ Foreign investor net buying in Sep. was highest since Aug. 2007 Nov. 2014 Contents NEW WHAT’S T h1. What’s New Monthly Topic WHAT’S NEW rd 1. Holding of the 33 Advisory Council on Government Debt Management …P.1 2. JGB Primary Market On October 15 2014, the MOF held the 33rd Advisory Council on Government Debt Management. The content of the proceedings was as follows. …P.7 (1)The MOF and the Financial Service Agency briefly reported on fiscal conditions and global financial regulations (Basel Ⅲ). Discussion followed this. 3. The Auctions for Enhanced-Liquidity and JGB Buy-Back …P.8 (2)The MOF explained recent challenges to Debt Management Policy based on the following topic list and Fig.1-3, etc. Discussion followed this. Topic list 1. Issuance Plan for FY2015 (1) Extending of Average maturity ・Increasing super long-term bonds and decreasing short-, medium-term bonds, etc. (2) Enhancing market liquidity ・Increasing Auctions for Enhanced-Liquidity ・Expansion of the reopening range of 10-Year Bonds ・Setting a bidding limitation per company and raising the bidding responsibility amount (3) Encouraging the Inflation-Indexed Bonds (JGBi) market ・Increasing the issuance amount of JGBi ・Promoting sales of JGBi to retail investors (new Over-The-Counter sales system) 2. Measures to diversify JGB Holders (1) Promotion of holdings by retail investor ・Improving the product-design for retail investors ・Promoting sales of JGBi to retail investors (new Over-The-Counter sales system) (2) Ideal state of foreign investor holdings 3. Monitoring of external circumstances (1) Market circumstances over the JGB supply-demand balance(Japan, Europe and the United States) (2) History of Debt Management Policy (3) Movement in global financial regulations (Basel Ⅲ) (4) Revision to the portfolio of GPIF 4. Revision to relevant systems (1) Revision to the JGB Market Special Participants Scheme ・Setting a bidding limitation per company and raising the bidding responsibility amount (2) Developing the infrastructure of the JGB market The Ministry of Finance www.mof.go.jp 4. JGB Secondary Market …P.9 5. Investor Trends and JGB Outstanding …P.11 6. Economic and Financial Trends …P.14 7. Information …P.15 WHAT’S NEW Effects of Average Maturity Extensions on Refunding Bond Issuance Amount (Fig.1) (Unit: trillion yen) 140 120 120.9 120.6 118.8 117.5 131.8 128.1 127.8 126.0 124.8 124.5 123.4 122.2 121.4 121.0 120.6 120.1 120.0 119.7 118.1 118.4 117.3 117.3 115.2 117.1 116.0 115.5 116.0 115.7 112.9 111.9 114.4 100 80 60 40 FY2014 JGB Issuance Plan 6M Average Maturity Extension until FY2015 20 6M Average Maturity Extension until FY2016 6M Average Maturity Extension until FY2017 0 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 (FY) Note.1: Assumptions are based on "Budget Projection in FY2014 Budget Policy [Case A-1]," "Cash Flow Projections of the GDCF," and others. Figure shows changes in refunding bond issuance amount as average maturity of new issuance is lengthened. Note.2:"FY2014 JGB Issuance Plan" is assumed as maintaining current maturity structure from FY2015 onward. "6M Average Maturity Entensions until fiscal year X" is assumed as extending average maturity by half a year annually until fiscal year X and maintaining the fiscal year X JGB issuance plan's maturity structure from fiscal year X+1 onward. (Fig.2) Effects of Average Maturity Extensions on Average Remaining Years to Maturity (Unit: trillion yen) 10.5 10.0 9.79 9.58 9.37 9.5 9.38 9.10 9.0 8.75 8.66 8.39 8.5 8.49 9.22 9.01 8.85 8.63 8.74 FY2014 JGB Issuance Plan 8.29 8.0 9.04 9.01 8.99 8.94 8.83 9.40 9.37 9.33 9.27 9.13 9.01 9.73 9.69 9.64 9.55 10.02 9.97 9.90 6M Average Maturity Extensions until FY2015 8.00 6M Average Maturity Extensions until FY2016 7.5 7.61 6M Average Maturity Extensions until FY2017 7.0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 (End of FY) Note.1: Assumptions are based on "Budget Projection in FY2014 Budget Policy [Case A-1]," "Cash Flow Projections of the GDCF," and others. Figure shows changes in average remaining years to maturity as average maturity of new issuance is lengthened. Note.2:"FY2014 JGB Issuance Plan" is assumed as maintaining current maturity structure from FY2015 onward. "6M Average Maturity Entensions until fiscal year X" is assumed as extending average maturity by half a year annually until fiscal year X and maintaining the fiscal year X JGB issuance plan's maturity structure from fiscal year X+1 onward. (Fig.3) Primary Dealer System (Bidding Limitation etc.) Japan Number of members Bidding(or purchasing) limitation Bidding obligation Purchasing obligation Measures for unprocurement ※1 23 companies planned issuance amount (total amount of PD and customer bidding) U.S. U.K. Provisional Germany※2 France 22 companies 21 companies 19 companies 37 companies 35% of planned issuance amount (bidding or purchasing amount by each bidder) Fix-rate gilts: 25% of planned issuance amount Inflation-linked gilts: 40% of planned issuance amount (purchasing amount by each bidder) The maximum amount proposed for each price (or rate) of the bidding scale for each participant in BTF auctions and in the first two issues of a new OAT or BTAN security is set as below※1 ― 3% of planned issuance amount each auction Planned issuance amount/the number of PD, each auction Participation in all auctions Participation in all auctions ― Short-term: 0.5% or more of total planned issuance amount on a two-quarters Mid-to-long term: 1% or more of the said amount ― 2% or more of total issuance amount on a 6-months 2% or more of total issuance amount on a year 0.05% or more of total issuance amount on a year ― When an auction is uncovered, the DMO holds the unsold balance, then the DMO offers the re-sale of the unsold balance to PDs.※3 If bidding limitation amount is deducted, to raise the bidding obligation amount (3%⇒4%) can be indicated. ・BTAN and Fixed-rate OAT: 600mil€ ・Floating-rate OAT: 300mil€ ― ※3 When an auction is uncovered, Deutsche Bundesbank holds the unsold balance, then Deutsche Bundesbank offers the re-sale of the unsold balance in the secondary market.※3 ・BTF: 1bil€ ※2 Germany’s “Bund Issuance Auction Group” is similar to UK’s and French primary dealer group in that only group members are allowed to participate in government debt auctions. But the only required qualification for a Bund Issuance Auction Group member is a financial institution based in the European Union and group members have no obligation to participate in government debt auctions and no opportunity for exchanging views with debt issuance authorities. Therefore, the German group is viewed as different from the PD group in other countries. ※3 For stable issuance, in UK, France and Germany, a part of super long-term bond and inflation-indexed bond etc. is issued by underwriting syndicate. -2- WHAT’S NEW 2. Recent Developments in 10-year Inflation-indexed JGBs (JGBi) (1) Auction Result of 10-year Inflation-Indexed JGBs On October 8, the MOF auctioned Inflation-Indexed Bonds, the issuance amount of which had been gradually increased after resuming issuance last October, from 300 billion yen to 500 billion yen. The market evaluation of the auction result seemed not to be bad in spite of the lowest bid-to-cover ratio because the auction price was almost around the market price at the time of auction. Details of Auction Results of 10-year Inflation-Indexed JGBs Issue Number 19 Auction Date 10/8/2014 Issue Date 10/10/2014 Maturity Date 9/10/2024 Nominal Coupon 0.1% Offering Amount About 500 billion yen Amounts of Competitive Bids 1,056.2 billion yen Amounts of Bids Accepted 499.9 billion yen Bid-to-cover ratio 2.11 Yield at the Lowest Accepted Price ▲0.658% Lowest Accepted Price (per 100 yen) 108.05 yen BEI (at the time of auction) Amounts of Bids Accepted at the Non-price -competitive Auction Ⅱ About 117bp 32.8 billion yen To meet with the demand for switch from existing bonds (issue number 3-16) to new bonds, buy-back including additional buy-back was executed on the day of the new Inflation-Indexed Bonds auction, totaling 55.9 billion yen of buy-back. The next auction is planned for January 2015 and the issuance is planned to be the reopening issue of the October issue and an additional issuance amount will be made flexibly, based on quarterly discussion with market participants. (2) BOJ’s review on Collateral Prices of JGBi On October 7, the BOJ announced its amendment to the “Guidelines on Eligible Collateral”. In this amendment, collateral prices of JGBi were revised upward. The new collateral prices of JGBi are as follows. A residual maturity of: (1) up to 1 year 91% of market price (2) more than 1 year and up to 5 years 91% of market price (3) more than 5 years and up to 10 years 93% of market price (4) more than 10 years and up to 20 years 91% of market price (5) more than 20 years and up to 30 years 90% of market price (6) more than 30 years 88% of market price -3- WHAT’S NEW (3) Recent figures Fig.1 Past Auction Results since Oct.2013 Issue Number Auction Date Issue Date Maturity Date Amounts of Bids Amounts of Amounts of Yield at the Lowest Accepted at the Nominal Competitive Bids Bid-to-cover Lowest Accepted Price Non-price Coupon Bids Accepted ratio Accepted (per 100 yen) -competitive Auction (billion yen) (billion yen) Price Ⅱ(billion yen) 17 10/8/2013 10/10/2013 9/10/2023 0.1% 1,123.1 299.9 3.74 ▲0.352% 104.65 43.8 17 1/9/2014 1/14/2014 9/10/2023 0.1% 860.4 299.5 2.87 ▲0.482% 105.90 3.5 18 4/3/2014 4/10/2014 3/10/2024 0.1% 1,157.3 399.8 2.89 ▲0.671% 108.20 21.9 18 7/8/2014 7/10/2014 3/10/2024 0.1% 1,017.9 400.0 2.54 ▲0.952% 111.20 - Fig.2 Market-held Balance of the Inflation-Indexed Bonds (as of October 8, 2014) (4) Q&A about JGBi Why did the MOF resume their issuance of JGBi? - In October 2008, we suspended issuance of JGBi due to a sharp decline in demand after the collapse of Lehman Brothers and other changes. However, as the Japanese economy began recovering from deflation, demand grew again in the market. In October 2013, the government resumed JGBi issuance with principal guarantee upon maturity, in consideration of investors’ requests. Does the MOF plan to diversify the maturity of JGBi? - The MOF resumed JGBi issuance in 2013 as mentioned above. However, liquidity of JGBi market is still less than that of other JGBs at this time. Therefore, we give priority to providing liquidity of 10-year JGBi by increasing the issuance amount. -4- MONTHLY TOPIC Foreign investor net buying in Sep. was highest since Aug. 2007 Japan Securities Dealers Association announced recent data in Government Bond Trading Volume by Category of Investors. In this data, the content about foreign investors was as follows. • Foreign investors were net buyers and the amount increased for three months in a row. • Total net buying of Medium-, Long- and Super-long-term JGBs was highest since August 2007 and net buying of Medium-term JGBs in particular was highest since April 2004, when data began to be released. • In September, net buying of Super long-term JGBs was about 387 billion yen, Long-term JGBs about 145 billion yen, and Medium-term JGBs about 2.9 trillion yen. Net Purchases of medium-/long-/super-long-term JGBs by Foreign Investors (trillion yen) 4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 Medium-term bonds Long-term bonds Super long-term bonds Total -3 Jan 2012 Apr Jul Oct Jan 2013 Apr Source: Japan Securities Dealers Association -5- Jul Oct Jan Apr 2014 Jul IR SPECIAL OFFICE In September 2014, the IR Special Office implemented an overseas IR tour in Asia to interview local investors. We held active discussions about debt management and Japanese economy. Foreign investors’ main interests are as follows. Japanese economy: - Trends in Japanese economic indicators (ex. FX, CPI, wages, exports) - Consumption tax rate hike - Government policy on fiscal consolidation - Outlook for the Bank of Japan’s Quantitative and Qualitative Easing - Japan’s growth strategy (Third Arrow of Abenomics) JGB (JGBis): - JGB issuance plan, especially for Inflation-Indexed Bonds (JGBi) - Market situation and trends in JGB Transactions - Proportion of JGB foreign investors - Main holder of JGBis - Likely impact of the allocation change of GPIF (Government Pension Investment Fund) on the JGB market If you have any questions regarding the contents of this newsletter, please do not hesitate to contact us at: [email protected] -6- 2 JGB PRIMARY MARKET Auction Results (Bonds) Auction Date 7/3/2014 7/8/2014 7/10/2014 7/18/2014 7/23/2014 7/29/2014 8/5/2014 8/12/2014 8/14/2014 8/19/2014 8/26/2014 8/28/2014 9/2/2014 9/9/2014 9/11/2014 9/17/2014 9/30/2014 Type of Security 10-year 10-year Inflation-Indexed Bonds 30-year 5-year 20-year 2-year 10-year 30-year 5-year 20-year 40-year 2-year 10-year 30-year 5-year 20-year 2-year Issue Number Maturity Date Nominal Coupon 334 18 43 119 149 343 334 43 118 149 7 344 335 44 120 150 345 6/20/2024 3/10/2024 6/20/2044 6/20/2019 6/20/2034 8/15/2016 6/20/2024 6/20/2044 6/20/2019 6/20/2034 3/20/2054 9/15/2016 9/20/2024 9/20/2044 9/20/2019 9/20/2034 10/15/2016 0.6% 0.1% 1.7% 0.1% 1.5% 0.1% 0.6% 1.7% 0.2% 1.5% 1.7% 0.1% 0.5% 1.7% 0.2% 1.4% 0.1% Amounts of Competitive Bids (billion yen) 7,558.4 1,017.9 2,013.9 10,172.4 4,111.6 14,654.2 9,337.4 2,221.1 11,961.7 3,953.9 1,014.5 14,514.0 7,882.4 2,291.2 9,066.7 4,250.6 16,074.7 Amounts of Bids Accepted (billion yen) 2,202.9 400.0 645.9 2,458.9 1,090.7 2,467.9 2,178.1 546.7 2,454.0 1,091.3 399.4 2,469.5 2,199.9 642.3 2,455.1 1,092.2 2,496.5 Yield at the Lowest Accepted Price Yield at the Average Price 0.563% ▲0.952% 1.710% 0.147% 1.413% 0.067% 0.523% 1.679% 0.147% 1.343% 1.760% 0.069% 0.521% 1.687% 0.179% 1.438% 0.077% 0.562% 1.703% 0.147% 1.409% 0.066% 0.522% 1.676% 0.147% 1.342% 0.067% 0.517% 1.679% 0.179% 1.435% 0.074% Amounts of Non-Competitive Bids Tendered /Accepted (billion yen) - - - 4.057 Amounts of Bids Accepted at the Non-pricecompetitive Auction Ⅰ (billion yen) Amounts of Bids Accepted at the Non-pricecompetitive Auction Ⅱ (billion yen) - - 0.268 2.652 3.488 1.110 3.195 7.584 2.375 2.467 - 191.9 53.2 239.5 108.5 228.8 217.5 52.5 243.5 107.5 226.8 191.7 57.1 241.7 106.6 200.7 - 49.0 151.8 86.4 281.3 87.9 59.9 125.9 58.9 176.8 Auction Results (Treasury Discount Bills) Auction Date Type of Security Issue Number Maturity Date 7/3/2014 7/8/2014 7/10/2014 7/16/2014 7/17/2014 7/24/2014 7/31/2014 8/6/2014 8/7/2014 8/13/2014 8/14/2014 8/18/2014 8/21/2014 8/28/2014 9/3/2014 9/8/2014 9/11/2014 9/17/2014 9/18/2014 9/25/2014 3-month 6-month 3-month 1-year 3-month 3-month 3-month 6-month 3-month 2-month 3-month 1-year 3-month 3-month 3-month 6-month 3-month 1-year 3-month 3-month 463 464 465 466 467 468 469 470 471 472 473 474 475 476 477 478 479 480 481 482 10/6/2014 1/14/2015 10/14/2014 7/21/2015 10/20/2014 10/27/2014 11/4/2014 2/10/2015 11/10/2014 10/2/2014 11/17/2014 8/20/2015 11/25/2014 12/1/2014 12/8/2014 3/10/2015 12/15/2014 9/24/2015 12/22/2014 1/8/2015 Amounts of Competitive Bids (billion yen) Amounts of Bids Accepted (billion yen) 28,831.40 20,232.60 25,447.50 16,261.00 21,687.00 32,099.90 28,580.40 21,202.40 29,035.20 14,319.00 28,606.30 12,858.50 27,661.70 27,746.30 30,557.70 16,453.60 28,028.45 12,271.80 28,472.20 26,047.79 5,232.03 3,225.74 5,204.67 2,301.89 5,213.75 5,230.89 5,186.05 3,217.88 5,239.00 2,314.15 5,172.03 2,319.55 5,262.90 5,221.74 5,254.50 3,242.92 5,185.24 2,318.88 5,229.04 5,312.93 Yield at the Lowest Accepted Price Yield at the Average Price 0.0461% 0.0213% 0.0317% 0.0150% 0.0263% 0.0300% 0.0337% 0.0199% 0.0280% 0.0266% 0.0260% 0.0200% 0.0317% 0.0381% 0.0220% 0.0201% 0.0060% 0.0059% 0.0040% 0.0090% 0.0457% 0.0213% 0.0182% 0.0150% 0.0206% 0.0264% 0.0289% 0.0159% 0.0236% 0.0250% 0.0228% 0.0180% 0.0289% 0.0344% 0.0204% 0.0121% 0.0028% 0.0019% 0.0016% 0.0025% Amounts of Bids Accepted at the Non-pricecompetitive Auction Ⅰ (billion yen) 467.90 274.24 475.30 198.10 476.20 479.04 463.90 282.10 480.95 185.80 477.90 180.40 477.03 478.20 485.45 257.00 474.70 181.10 470.90 417.00 Auction Calendar for Oct. – Dec. 2014 Auction Date 10/2 (Thu) 10/2 (Thu) 10/8 (Wed) 10/8 (Wed) 10/9 (Thu) 10/10 (Fri) 10/10 (Fri) 10/15 (Wed) 10/15 (Wed) 10/16 (Thu) 10/17 (Fri) 10/21 (Tue) Issue T-Bills (3-month) 10-year T-Bills (6-month) 10-year Inflation-Indexed Bonds T-Bills (3-month) T-Bills (Approx.2-month) Auctions for Enhanced-liquidity T-Bills (1-year) 30-year T-Bills (3-month) 5-year 20-year Auction Date 10/23 (Thu) 10/23 (Thu) 10/28 (Tue) 10/30 (Thu) 11/5 (Wed) 11/5 (Wed) 11/6 (Thu) 11/7 (Fri) 11/11 (Tue) 11/13 (Thu) 11/13 (Thu) 11/18 (Tue) Issue T-Bills (3-month) Auction Date 11/18 (Tue) 11/20 (Thu) 11/20 (Thu) 11/26 (Wed) 11/27 (Thu) 11/28 (Fri) 12/2 (Tue) 12/4 (Thu) 12/4 (Thu) 12/8 (Mon) 12/9 (Tue) 12/10 (Wed) Auctions for Enhanced-liquidity 2-year T-Bills (3-month) T-Bills (6-month) 10-year T-Bills (3-month) Auctions for Enhanced-liquidity 30-year T-Bills (3-month) 5-year T-Bills (1-year) Issue 20-year T-Bills (3-month) Auctions for Enhanced-liquidity 40-year T-Bills (3-month) 2-year 10-year T-Bills (3-month) Auction Date 12/11 (Thu) 12/11 (Thu) 12/16 (Tue) 12/17 (Wed) 12/18 (Thu) 12/18 (Thu) 12/25 (Thu) Issue T-Bills (3-month) Auctions for Enhanced-liquidity 5-year T-Bills (1-year) T-Bills (3-month) 20-year 2-year Auctions for Enhanced-liquidity T-Bills (6-month) 30-year T-Bills (Approx.2-month) Note 1: The above calendar may be changed or added in light of changes in circumstances. In such cases, it will be announced in advance. Note 2: Each issue amount will be announced about one week prior to each auction date. Note.3: The issue date of Treasury Discount Bills auctioned on October 10, 2014 is October 15, 2014 and, the maturity date is December 3, 2014. Note.4: The issue date of Treasury Discount Bills auctioned on December 10, 2014 is December 15, 2014 and, the maturity date is February 4, 2015. 1 2 3 4 5 Top 10 PDs by Total Purchase in Auctions (Calculated by Duration) (Apr.2014 ~ Sep. 2014) Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities Co., Ltd. Daiwa Securities Co. Ltd. Nomura Securities Co., Ltd. Mizuho Securities Co., Ltd. The Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ, Ltd. 6 7 8 9 10 -7- BNP Paribas Securities (Japan) Limited Merrill Lynch Japan Securities Co., Ltd. SMBC Nikko Securities Inc. Mizuho Bank, Ltd. Goldman Sachs Japan Co., Ltd. 3 THE AUCTIONS FOR ENHANCED-LIQUIDITY AND JGB BUY-BACK Results of Auctions for Enhanced-Liquidity Auction Date Amounts of Amounts of Bids Competitive Bids Accepted (billion yen) (billion yen) Average Accepted Spread Highest Accepted Spread 7/16/2014 937.3 299.7 +0.001% +0.006% 7/25/2014 1,517.4 399.9 ▲0.008% ▲0.008% 8/7/2014 927.5 298.2 ▲0.006% ▲0.003% 8/21/2014 1,617.4 399.6 +0.013% +0.015% 9/5/2014 1,170.8 299.6 +0.003% +0.004% 9/25/2014 1,232.0 399.3 ▲0.007% ▲0.003% Issues Re-opened 30-year(8,12,14,19,20,21,24,28,29,32,33,35,37,38,39,41,42) 40-year(1,2,3,4,5) 10-year(304,305) 20-year(62) 20-year(119,126,135,138,143,144) 30-year(10,12,14,17,20,21,27,31,32,33,37,38,40) 10-year(303,304,305,312,332) 20-year(43,46,62,74,76) 20-year(125,126,132,141) 30-year(16,17,32,33,35,37,41) 10-year(303,304,305,310,317) 20-year(43,58,68,69,72,74,76,78,81,84,85,86,88,91,111) Target Zones of the Auction for Enhanced-Liquidity for the Third Quarter of FY 2014 ①Remaining maturity : approx.5‐~15.5‐year (billion yen) Outstanding amount in the market (excluding amount issued by the Auction for Enhanced-liquidity) Amount issued by the Auction for Enhanced-liquidity 305 306 307 JL44 JL45 308 309 JL46 310 311 JL47 312 JL48 313 314 JL49 JL50 315 316 JL51 317 318 JL52 319 320 JL53 JL54 321 322 JL55 323 324 JL56 JL57 325 JL58 326 327 JL59 JL60 328 JL61 329 JL62 JL63 330 331 JL64 332 JL65 JL66 333 JL67 JL68 JL69 334 JL70 JL71 JL72 JL73 JL74 JL75 JL76 JL77 JL78 JL79 JL80 JL81 JL82 JL83 JL84 JL85 JL86 JL87 JL88 JL89 JL90 JL91 JL92 JL93 JL94 JL95 JL96 JL97 JL98 JL99 JL100 JL101 JL102 JL103 JL104 JL105 JL106 JL107 JL108 JL109 JL110 JL111 JL112 JL113 JX1 JL114 JL115 JX2 JL116 JL117 7,500 7,000 6,500 6,000 5,500 5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 15.5 10 5 (Remaining maturities) ②Remaining maturity : approx.15.5‐~39‐year (billion yen) Outstanding amount in the market (excluding amount issued by the Auction for Enhanced-liquidity) 4,000 Amount issued by the Auction for Enhanced-liquidity 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 0 JX3 JL118 JL119 JL120 JL121 JL122 JX4 JL123 JL124 JL125 JL126 JL127 JX5 JL128 JL129 JL130 JL131 JX6 JL132 JL133 JL134 JL135 JL136 JX7 JL137 JL138 JL139 JL140 JX8 JL141 JL142 JX9 JL143 JL144 JX10 JL145 JX11 JL146 JX12 JL147 JX13 JL148 JX14 JL149 JX15 JX16 JX17 JX18 JX19 JX20 JX21 JX22 JX23 JX24 JX25 JX26 JX27 JX28 JX29 JX30 JX31 JX32 JX33 JX34 JX35 JX36 JX37 JX38 JX39 JX40 JX41 JX42 JX43 JU1 JU2 JU3 JU4 JU5 JU6 500 15.5 39 20 (Remaining maturities) Note1: JL shows 20‐year JGBs. JX shows 30‐year JGBs. JU shows 40‐year JGBs. Outstanding amount is as of the end of September 2014. Note2: Based on the results of the consultations to the JGB Market Special Participants which takes place at the time of each auction,60 issues from each of the above 2 groups are selected as targeted issues. Buy –back Results 10-Year Inflation-Indexed Amounts of Bids Accepted (billion yen) 30.1 86.3 10.1 10.1 Average Accepted Spread (yen) ▲0.832 ▲0.832 ▲0.413 ▲0.374 Highest Accepted Spread (yen) ▲0.55 ▲0.35 ▲0.29 7/2/2014 7/17/2014 Amounts of Competitive Bids (billion yen) 530.8 464.2 Amounts of Bids Accepted (billion yen) 120.6 120.2 Average Accepted Spread (yen) ▲0.353 ▲0.279 Highest Accepted Spread (yen) ▲0.20 ▲0.10 8/6/2014 520.9 120.1 ▲0.185 ▲0.13 9/2/2014 9/26/2014 503.3 421.2 120.0 120.1 ▲0.120 ▲0.358 ▲0.04 ▲0.01 Auction Date 7/8/2014 7/8/2014 8/20/2014 9/10/2014 Amounts of Competitive Bids (billion yen) 130.2 86.3 24.5 32.5 Issue Numbers 3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16 7,8,11,14 4,5,7,8,10,11,13,14 15-Year Floating-Rate Auction Date -8- Issue Numbers 8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17,18,19,20,22,23,24,25,26,27,28, 29,36,37,38,39,40,41,42,43,44,45,47,48 8,9,13,14,16,17,18,22,23,24,25,26,27,28,29,30,31,32,33,34, 36,37,38,39,41,44,45,46 8,9,11,12,13,14,16,17,18,19,20,22,23,24,25,26,27,28,29,30, 31,33,34,35,36,37,38,39,40,41,42,43,44,45,46,47,48 4 JGB SECONDARY MARKET JGB Yield Curves 2.0% 8% 1.8% 7% 1.6% 1.6% 1.4% Volatility 1.4% 1.2% 1.0% 2013/12/30 0.8% 2014/3/31 0.6% 2014/6/30 2014/5/30 0.4% 2014/7/31 0.2% 2014/9/30 0.0% Yield and Volatility (10Yr) (Until 30 September 2014) 2014/8/29 0 5 10 15 Source: Japan Bond Trading Co.,Ltd. 3.0% 20 25 30 35 40 (years to maturity) Yield (right scale) 6% 1.2% 5% 1.0% 4% 0.8% 3% 0.6% 2% 0.4% 1% 0.2% 0% Jan-12 0.0% May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Jan-14 Sep-13 Source: Bloomberg, Calculation by the Ministry of Finance Yields of JGB 2.5% May-14 Sep-14 (Until 30 September 2014) 2-year bond 5-year bond 10-year bond 20-year bond 30-year bond 40-year bond 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% Jan-10 Source: Bloomberg Jan-11 Jan-13 Jan-12 Jan-14 Long - Term Interest Rates (10Yr) 5% 4% Japan United States United Kingdom Germany (Until 30 September 2014) 3% 2% 1% 0% Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Source: Bloomberg Break-Even Inflation Rates 4% (Until 30 September 2014) 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% BEI (Japan : old JGBi) BEI (Japan : 10 year) -2% BEI (U.K. : 10 year) BEI (U.S.A. : 10 year) -3% Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Note: BEI (Japan : old JGBi) is calculated based on the compound interest rate of the old Inflation-Indexed Bond (issue number 16 with current maturity 3 years and 9 months) and the 10-year Bond (issue number 293 with current maturity of 3 years and 9 months). BEI (Japan: 10 year) is calculated based on the compound interest rate of new Inflation-Indexed Bond and the 10-year Bond. Source: Japan: MOF calculation based on the information on interest rates offered by NIKKEI QUICK. U.S.A., U.K. : Bloomberg -9- Short-Term Interest Rates 0.6% (Until 30 September 2014) Call Rate (Uncollateralized Overnight) 0.5% TIBOR 3-months (Euro-Yen) Basic Loan Rate 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Source: Bank of Japan, Japan Bankers Association (trillion yen) 1,200 JGB Over-the-Counter Trading Volume (TOKYO) Treasury Discount Bills 1,100 Medium Term Bonds 1,000 Long Term Bonds 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 200 Jan-10 Jan-11 Source: Japan Securities Dealers Association (trillion yen) Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Trading Volume of 10-Year JGB Futures 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Note: The figures for Mar. 2014 show the data until Mar. 20. Source: Tokyo Stock Exchange (until Mar.2014), Osaka Exchange (from Apr. 2014) (trillion yen) Jan-13 Jan-14 Repurchase Transactions 2,500 Bond-Lending 2,000 Bond-Gensaki 1,500 1,000 500 0 Jan-10 Jan-11 Source: Japan Securities Dealers Association Jan-12 Jan-13 -10- Jan-14 5 INVESTOR TRENDS AND JGB OUTSTANDING Trends in JGBs Transactions (by investor type) City Banks (trillion yen) Regional banks (trillion yen) 2.0 5.0 Net Purchase 3.0 Net Purchase 1.5 1.0 1.0 -1.0 0.5 -3.0 0.0 -5.0 -0.5 -7.0 Super long-term -9.0 Long-term Net Sale Apr. Net Sale Jul. Oct. Jan. Apr. Medium-term (trillion yen) 3.5 T-bills 3.0 Jul. Oct. Jan. Apr. 2013 2012 -1.0 Jul. 2014 Oct. Jan. Apr. Life and non-life insurance companies 18.0 16.0 Jul. Oct. Jan. Apr. Jul. 2013 2014 Foreigners (trillion yen) 20.0 Net Purchase 14.0 2.0 12.0 1.5 10.0 1.0 8.0 6.0 0.5 4.0 0.0 2.0 -0.5 -1.0 Jul. 2012 Net Purchase 2.5 Apr. 0.0 Net Sale Apr. Jul. Oct. 2012 Jan. Apr. Jul. 2013 Source: Japan Securities Dealers Association City Banks (trillion yen) Oct. Jan. Apr. -2.0 Jul. Net Sale Apr. Jul. Oct. Jan. Apr. Trends in Bank Assets by Types 220 200 Jul. Jan. Oct. Apr. Jul. 2013 2012 2014 2014 Regional Banks (trillion yen) 210 200 180 190 Loans 160 180 120 50 Municipal Bonds 100 40 Corporate Bonds 80 Equities 60 Cash and Deposits Government Bonds Foreign Securities 30 20 40 10 20 0 Jan-08 Source: Bank of Japan Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 0 Jan-08 Jan-14 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 BOJ Trends 300 Apr 2013 Sep 2014 Dec 2014 (projected) 155 252.6 275 250 JGBs 98 179.8 200 200 CP 1.4 2.2 2.2 Corporate Bonds 2.9 3.2 3.2 ETFs 1.7 3.2 3.8 J-REITs 0.13 0.16 0.18 Loan Support Program 3.4 21 18 Total Assets 175 276 297 297 tril yen 275 tril yen 200 tril yen 150 100 Projection 50 Monetary Base JGBs Balance Sheet Nov-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 May-14 Jan-14 Mar-14 Nov-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 May-13 Jan-13 Mar-13 Nov-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 May-12 Jan-12 Mar-12 Nov-11 Jul-11 -11- Sep-11 0 May-11 Source: Bank of Japan Dec 2014 Apr 4,2013 BOJ the Introduction of the "Quantitative and Qualitative Monetary Easing" Jan-11 Monetary Base (trillion yen) Mar-11 (trillion yen) Transactions of Foreign Securities by Residents (by Investor types) Banks(Banking Accounts) 4 Life Insurance Companies (trillion yen) Short-term debt securities Long-term debt securities 3 1.2 Equity and investment fund shares Short-term debt securities 1 Net Purchase 2 (trillion yen) Equity and investment fund shares Net Purchase 0.8 0.6 1 Long-term debt securities 0.4 0 0.2 -1 0 -0.2 -2 Net Sales -3 -4 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 -0.4 Net Sales -0.6 Jan-13 -0.8 Jan-10 Jan-14 Jan-12 Jan-11 Jan-13 Jan-14 Source: Ministry of Finance Transactions of Domestic Securities by Non-Residents Outstanding of Repurchase Agreements (by Investor types) (trillion yen) 6 City Banks 40% 8 Net Purchase Trust Banks Insurance Companies Jan-13 Jan-14 Foreigners 35% 30% 4 25% 2 20% 0 15% -2 Net Sales -4 -6 Jan-10 10% 5% Short-term debt securities Long-term debt securities Equity and investment fund shares Jan-11 Source: Ministry of Finance Jan-12 Jan-13 0% Jan-12 Jan-14 Source: Japan Securities Dealers Association Foreign Investors Presence JGBs Holding by Foreign Investors 60% (trillilon yen) 10 % 53.4% 50% 9% 8% ①Market Share of Foreign Investors (JGB Futures Market) Amount of JGB Holdings (right) 8.6 6% 30% 22.6% 20% 8.5% ③JGB Holdings by Foreign Investors 0% Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 63.3 59.2 7.0 67.9 6.8 6.9 55.2 55.6 Mar-13 Note.1: Quarterly basis. Note.2: “JGB” includes T-Bills. The figures of ②excludes dealers’ transactions. Source: Bank of Japan, Japan Securities Dealers Association, Tokyo Stock Exchange 81.8 76.7 6.4 6.6 6.0 49.3 6.0 5.6 58.1 6.4 67.8 86.1 8.6 82.6 8.5 8.4 8.1 8.5 8.4 8.5 84.1 82.0 81.7 61.9 86.5 83.7 79.0 100 90 80 70 60 56.6 52.1 50 46.4 4% 40 3% 30 2% 20 1% 10 0% Mar-08 Mar-14 78.3 8.3 8.7 7.1 55.0 52.3 5% ②Market Share of Foreign Investors (JGB Market) 10% 7.5 77.0 7.4 7% 40% 8.4 8.5 Proportion of JGB Holdings (left) 8.0 9.1 Mar-09 Mar-10 Note: “JGB” includes T-Bills. Source: Bank of Japan -12- Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 0 Breakdown by JGB and T-Bill Holders (Jun. 2014, QE) JGB Holders Pension Funds 34.5 4.1% Public Pensions 65.2 7.6% T-Bill Holders JGB and T-Bill Holders Others 0.0 Households 0.0% 0.0 0.0% General Government Households 20.4 Others (ex Public Pensions) 2.4 2.4% 12.1 Fiscal Loan Fund Foreigners 0.3% 1.4% 0.4 35.2 0.0% 4.1% Pension Funds 34.5 3.4% Fiscal Loan Fund Public Pensions 0.7 65.2 0.4% 6.4% Foreigners 51.3 31.9% BOJ 169.8 19.9% BOJ 45.3 28.2% Life and Non-life Insurance 192.3 22.6% Banks,etc. 320.1 37.6% General Government (ex Public Pensions) 23.6 Fiscal Loan Fund 2.3% 1.1 0.1% BOJ 215.1 21.2% Life and Non-life Insurance 195.0 19.3% Banks,etc. 359.5 35.5% Banks,etc. 39.4 24.5% Pension Funds 0.0 0.0% Public Pensions 0.0 0.0% Total 852.4 trillion yen Households Others 20.4 12.1 2.0% 1.2% Foreigners 86.5 8.5% General Government (ex Public Pensions) 21.2 13.2% Life and Non-life Insurance 2.8 1.7% (trillion yen) Total 160.7 trillion yen Total 1013.1 trillion yen Note.1: "JGB" includes FILP Bonds. "T-Bill" is the sum of "Treasury Bills (TBs)" and "Financial Bills (FBs)" with a maturity of 1 year or less and TBs and FBs have been jointly issued since February 2009. Note.2: "Banks, etc." includes Japan Post Bank, "Securities investment trust " and "Securities Companies". Note.3: "Life and Nonlife insurance" includes Japan Post Insurance. Source: Bank of Japan Breakdown of Outstanding Amount of General Bonds by Remaining Years to Maturity (trillion yen) 750 705.0 700 669.9 636.3 650 600 550 499.0 500 1.0% 10.8% 450 5.6% 5.2% 4.5% 400 2.0% 2.7% 1.3% 1.6% 13.8% 14.5% 14.8% 5.7% 5.4% 5.5% 5.0% 6.3% 5.9% 6.2% 5.8% 6.0% 5.5% 4.8% 4.2% 5.6% 4.6% 5.6% 5.3% 8.6% 8.4% 6.0% 4.8% 4.2% 3.9% 7.7% 250 11.9% 8.4% 200 10.3% 150 12.8% 13.2% 21.8% 21.7% FY2004 FY2005 Average YTM* 5Y1M Average YTM * (excluding saving bonds) 5Y0M 300 545.9 12.2% 4.1% 4.2% 8.0% 350 531.7 526.9 541.5 8.5% 8.3% 10.9% 8.3% 12.8% 9.0% 9.2% 8.2% 8.9% 11.5% 0 20.3% 4.7% 5.5% 4.9% 7.8% 8.4% 8.8% 8.6% 9.0% 8.4% 8.5% 13.0% 7-8 yrs 5.0% 4.5% 4.4% 4.6% 5.2% 4.7% 4.9% 5.2% 4.5% 5.3% 4.8% 4.8% 8-9 yrs 4.8% 4.7% 5.6% 5.1% 5.2% 9-10 yrs 4.6% 4.3% 4.4% 5.2% 10-20 yrs 16.5% 15.6% 14.9% 14.4% 14.4% 11.4% 100 50 3.6% 20 yrs- 7.5% 6.7% 5.8% 4.6% 594.0 743.9 4.2% 6-7 yrs 7.8% 7.8% 5-6 yrs 8.1% 8.1% 8.1% 7.8% 4-5 yrs 3-4 yrs 7.9% 8.6% 12.5% 11.9% 12.4% 12.0% 18.3% 18.2% 17.9% 17.3% 2-3 yrs 1-2 yrs 18.6% 17.0% 17.8% FY2006 FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 5Y4M 5Y9M 6Y1M 6Y3M 6Y5M 6Y8M 7Y0M 7Y3M 7Y7M 5Y3M 5Y8M 6Y1M 6Y4M 6Y6M 6Y10M 7Y1M 7Y5M 7Y8M -1 yr (at the end of FY) *years to maturity Source: Ministry of Finance Time-to-Maturity Structure of Outstanding JGB(Jun. 2014) (trillion yen) 130 Average remaining years to maturity: 7 years and 8 months 120 110 100 96.74 Treasury Bills 2-yr bonds JGBs for retail investors (3-yr-Fixed-rate) JGBs for retail investors (5-yr-Fixed-rate) 5-yr bonds Inflation-Indexed bonds JGBs for retail investors (Floating-rate) 10-yr bonds 15-yr-floating-rate bonds 20-yr bonds 30-yr bonds 40-yr bonds 98.66 90 80 65.22 70 60.46 60 63.70 50 37.59 40 34.43 33.09 30 35.35 39.58 20 10.24 10 0 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 9.32 25 14.96 14.42 11.34 13.89 9.31 10.33 26 27 28 29 30 31 17.35 17.66 4.84 32 33 Source: Ministry of Finance -13- 34 3.31 35 4.40 3.48 4.41 4.93 5.96 36 37 40 38 39 6.15 41 5.22 42 7.42 43 0.67 0.73 1.25 1.25 1.77 1.75 1.77 0.45 44 49 47 48 50 51 52 53 (FY) 6 ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL TRENDS Real GDP Growth Rate (%) Annualized contributions to changes in real GDP from the previous quarter (seasonally adjusted) 10 5 Private Demand Public Demand Foreign Demand Real GDP 4.1 CPI 6.0 Apr.4, 2013 BOJ released QQE CPI excluding food (excluding alcohilic beverages) and energy 3 3.4 5.1 Prices (%) Change from the previous year 4 3.3% 1.8 0 -2.2 -2.7 -5 2.3% 2 -0.5 -0.5 1 -7.1 -10 0 -15 Ⅳ Ⅰ Source: Cabinet Office "Quarterly Estimates of GDP" Employment Conditions 6.0% Jul, 2009 5.5% 5.5% Ⅱ -1 2014 Jan-12 (ratio) Jul-13 Jan-13 Jan-14 35 Trade Balance Services Secondary Income Current Account 30 1.1 24.9 25 1 19.7 0.9 15 14.2 0.8 12.2 14.214.7 10.1 5 0.6 Monetary Base 200 10.1 3.2 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 Source: Ministry of Finance “Balance of Payments" Source: Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare “Employment Referrals for General Workers “, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications “Labour Force Survey” (trillion yen) 2000 Jan-14 1999 Jan-13 1998 Jan-12 1997 Jan-11 -15 0.4 1996 Jan-10 13.6 10.5 -10 0.5 1995 Jan-09 14.9 13.7 -5 1994 1.0% Jan-08 16.1 14.1 4.7 1993 Job opening-to-application ratio (right scale) 1.5% 20.3 7.5 1992 2.0% 13.0 18.7 0 1988 Aug, 2009 0.42times 0.7 1987 Aug, 2014 3.5% 1986 2.5% 11.6 10.4 6.5 1985 3.0% 15.0 13.3 9.2 8.7 1991 3.5% 10 12.0 1990 Umemployment rate (left scale) 19.1 20 1989 4.5% 4.0% Jul-14 Changes in Current Account (trillion yen) 1.2 Primary Income Aug, 2014 1.1times 5.0% 250 Jul-12 Source: Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications “CPI” 2013 Ⅲ 2013 2012 Ⅱ 2011 Ⅰ 2010 Ⅳ 2009 Ⅲ 2012 2008 Ⅱ 2007 Ⅰ Indices of Industrial Production (2010 average=100・ Seasonally Adjusted Index) 160 Banknotes in Circulation 150 Coins in Circulation 140 Current Account Balances 130 150 Production Shipments Inventory Inventory Ratio 120 110 100 100 90 50 80 Jul-14 Jan-14 Oct-13 Jul-13 Apr-13 Jan-13 Oct-12 Jul-12 Apr-12 Jan-12 Oct-11 Jul-11 Apr-11 Jan-11 Oct-10 Jul-10 Apr-10 Jan-10 Oct-09 Jul-09 Apr-09 Jan-09 Oct-08 Jul-14 20% Apr-14 30% Apr-14 (Diffusion index) Jul-08 Jan-08 Source: Bank of Japan "Monetary Base" Apr-08 70 0 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Source: Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry "Indices of Industrial Production” Total Value of Machinery Orders TANKAN (Business Conditions) Large enterprises/Manufacturing Large enterprises/Non-Manufacturing Small enterprises/Manufacturing Small enterprises/Non-Manufacturing (Private Sector exc. Volatile orders) (billion yen) 1,100 Monthly Quarter (Mean) 1,000 10% 0% 900 -10% 800 -20% -30% 700 -40% -50% 600 Source: Bank of Japan “Tankan” Jan-14 Oct-13 Jul-13 Apr-13 Jan-13 Oct-12 Jul-12 Apr-12 Jan-12 Oct-11 Jul-11 Apr-11 Jan-11 Oct-10 Jul-10 Apr-10 Jan-10 Oct-09 Jul-09 Apr-09 Jan-09 Oct-08 Jul-08 Jan-08 Sep-14 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-13 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-12 May-12 Jan-12 Sep-11 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-10 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-09 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-08 Jan-08 500 May-08 -70% Apr-08 -60% Source: Cabinet Office, Government Japan "Orders Received for Machinery" -14- 7 INFORMATION English Publications on JGBs Frequency URL Debt Management Message from the Financial Bureau As needed http://www.mof.go.jp/english/jgbs/debt_management/message.htm About JGBs As needed http://www.mof.go.jp/english/jgbs/debt_management/guide.htm About the Debt Management Policy As needed http://www.mof.go.jp/english/jgbs/debt_management/about.htm JGB Issuance Plan As needed http://www.mof.go.jp/english/jgbs/debt_management/plan/index.htm Auction Calendar Auction Calendar Monthly Historical Data of Auction Results Each Auction http://www.mof.go.jp/english/jgbs/auction/calendar/index.htm http://www.mof.go.jp/english/jgbs/auction/past_auction_results/index.html Topics Product Characteristics of the JGB As needed http://www.mof.go.jp/english/jgbs/topics/bond/index.html Treasury Discount Bills (T-Bills) Annual http://www.mof.go.jp/english/jgbs/topics/t_bill/index.htm Japanese Government Guaranteed Bonds Annual http://www.mof.go.jp/english/jgbs/topics/gov_guaranteed_bonds/index.htm Interest Rate Swap Semiannual http://www.mof.go.jp/english/jgbs/topics/swap/index.htm Taxation of Government Bonds As needed http://www.mof.go.jp/english/jgbs/topics/taxation/index.htm For Individual Investors As needed http://www.mof.go.jp/english/jgbs/topics/individual/index.htm Data Central Government Debt Quarterly Interest Rate Daily STRIPS Monthly http://www.mof.go.jp/english/jgbs/reference/gbb/index.htm http://www.mof.go.jp/english/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm http://www.mof.go.jp/english/jgbs/reference/jgbstat/index.htm Dialogue with the market Advisory Councils on Government Debt Management Each Meeting http://www.mof.go.jp/english/about_mof/councils/gov_debt_management/index.html Meeting of JGB Market Special Participants Each Meeting http://www.mof.go.jp/english/about_mof/councils/jgbsp/index.html Meeting of JGB Investors Each Meeting http://www.mof.go.jp/english/about_mof/councils/jgb_investor/index.html Publications Debt Management Report Annual http://www.mof.go.jp/english/jgbs/publication/debt_management_report/index.htm JGB Newsletter Monthly http://www.mof.go.jp/english/jgbs/publication/newsletter/index.htm To subscribe to our Newsletter mailing list, please email: [email protected] Debt Management Policy Division, Financial Bureau, Ministry of Finance 3-1-1 Kasumigaseki, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 100-8940 Japan Phone: 81-3-3581-4111 Web: www.mof.go.jp -15-
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