DAVID FIALA and Staff 11/13/2014 7:06 AM Morning Market Commentary DEC CORN CZ14 Long Term Trend Intermediate Term Trend Short Term Trend Down Up Up JAN SOYBEANS SF15 Long Term Trend Intermediate Term Trend Short Term Trend Down Up Up DEC HRW WHEAT KWZ14 Long Term Trend Intermediate Term Trend Short Term Trend Down Down Down Support 1 Resistance 1 Fiala Fund Estimate 372 384 +263k 8 Yr. Record Long +458k Support 2 Resistance 2 CFTC Fund w/opt 11/04 8 Yr. Record Short 366 391 +262k -125k* Corn trade is 2 to 4 cents higher overnight with trade chopping around in the upper end of the recent range. Outside markets are mixed with crude lower and the dollar weaker. Corn needs better export sales to garner significant fundamental support with a carryover at 2 billion bushels, while some recent sales have been announced the soybean trade is getting most of the interest. The higher futures/cash and the firm dollar this fall does not suggest the market is trying to find export demand. The friendly items for corn are a need to buy enough 2015 acres and get farmers to sell their 2014 crop. The large domestic and world carryovers are fundamentally bearish which means rallies should be viewed as selling opportunities. Nearby December chart resistance for Thursday is the $3.85 high with support at the $3.72-73 area where we find the 10-day and 100-day moving averages. A second daily close above these major moving averages is a buy signal, but when you reach a new high for a move and close below the previous high that negates that chart buy signal, so the action today will be important. Support 1 Resistance 1 1033 1074 Support 2 Resistance 2 Fiala Fund Estimate +40k CFTC Fund w/opt 11/04 9 Yr. Record Long +260k 9 Yr. Record Short 1018 1101 +46k -56k Soybean trade is 2 to 4 cents higher overnight with a little less volatility overnight than we have seen to start the week. Meal is $ to $5 higher and oil is flat to 10 points. South America continues to make planting progress, but some weather questions are lingering. We are in a weather market so although the huge burdensome world stocks are on the balance sheet it is not a guarantee until the South American crop is made. On the chart, January beans moved through resistance at the 100-day area of $10.60 up to a new high at $10.86, but we closed back below $10.60 which makes it nearby resistance again. Support on Jan is at the $10.34 10-day, then the $10.11 20-day. Support 1 Resistance 1 Fiala Fund Estimate 584 609 +5k 3 Yr. Record Long +51k Support 2 Resistance 2 CFTC Fund w/opt 11/04 3 Yr. Record Short 568 617 +6k -9k Wheat trade is narrowly mixed across the three contracts overnight with the spreads continuing to firm indicating better commercial demand. Cold weather will continue to linger potentially stressing the young crop. December Chicago came within a penny of its $5.47 100-day moving average yesterday and is just below it overnight, while KC moved through its 20-day, at $5.94. The KC 100-day is at $6.33, which is the next resistance level up. I do not see that much of a bullish story here, but because wheat is so far off its spring highs, another 30 cents is not a big deal. The December KC high in May was round $8.50 versus the $5.99 close today. DEC LIVE CATTLE LCZ14 Long Term Trend Intermediate Term Trend Short Term Trend Up Up Down DEC LEAN HOGS LHZ14 Long Term Trend Intermediate Term Trend Short Term Trend Down Down Down Support 1 Resistance 1 Fiala Fund Estimate 16707 16820 +129k Support 2 Resistance 2 CFTC Fund w/opt 11/04 3 Yr. Record Long +157k* 3 Yr. Record Short 16642 16867 +124k +17k Live cattle are called 20 to 40 higher with light follow through buying after live cattle hit new highs on the back months yesterday, while feeder cattle are expected to open 10 to 30 lower with the firmer corn trade. The cutout report had choice up 1.47 at 251.44 and select up .32 at 238.75. Cash trade interest was limited today with only a few serious bids around and asking prices fairly firm round $170 cash and $265-8 dressed. Cash trade was in the $166-168 area last week. Showlists were generally tighter on the week which should limit trade until later in the week, and there are signs that packers are successfully slowing chain speeds. On the December Live Cattle Chart we are just above the 20-day and 10-day, both around $166.70, and the next downside major moving average is support at $164.15, which is the 50-day. Resistance is at $170. Support 1 Resistance 1 Fiala Fund Estimate 8997 9127 +76k 3 Yr. Record Long +116k* Support 2 Resistance 2 CFTC Fund w/opt 11/04 3 Yr. Record Short 8930 9190 +72k -11k Lean hog trade is called 30 to 50 higher with follow through buying with support from cash trades and more signs a seasonal low is in. Cash has helped limit downside this past week and December moved above the 20day and closed above it the past few days providing a positive chart item to the technical trading crowd. The fresh pork cutout continues to be led by ham strength but other cuts are struggling. The cold weather is bringing in more reports of PEDv. Carcass weights continue to be very large which should limit upside but the cold snap will likely limit immediate gains. On the chart support is at the 20-day, $89.05 on the December contract, with resistance at the 200-day up at $92.27. There is a significant risk of loss in futures trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Support, resistance and trend numbers or biases are based on mechanical technical methods that are only provided as numbers and pose no recommendation to buy or sell nor guaranteed for accuracy. This is not a solicitation. *Recent CFTC Record